上海城镇职工养老保险制度研究—人口老龄化、政策选择和数值模拟
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摘要
出生率下降和人均寿命上升导致的人口老龄化使得上海城镇职工养老保险制度赡养比上升,从而使得养老保险基金的支付出现危机。由于个人账户资金被用于弥补统筹基金缺口,因此现行上海城镇职工养老保险制度基本上还是一个现收现付的养老保险制度。
本文从人口转变的角度出发分析了上海未来的人口和劳动力供给以及经济发展状况,提出三大改革措施。第一,提高法定退休年龄。首先要对提前退休进行惩罚,提高实际退休年龄,然后逐步提高法定退休年龄。文章分析了国际上提高退休年龄的经验和上海提高退休年龄的可行性。第二,做实个人账户,将个人账户资金在资本市场上进行市场化运作。建议上海个人账户资金目前采取集中管理模式。构建多元化投资组合,部分资金可投资于国际市场甚至于私墓股权投资基金,以获取较高的投资收益。风险管理方面宜采取限量监管模式。第三,采取税收优惠措施,发展企业年金,使之成为职工养老保险的一个重要补充。
本文构建了一个由五大模块组成的养老保险模型。对未来30年内人口、经济和养老保险参数作出假设,测算了未来的劳动力供给和养老保险制度的赡养比,从而模拟了提高退休年龄对未来统筹帐户平均养老金替代率的影响。在个人账户模拟时提出了标准人的概念,计算了收益率分别为4%和6%时的个人账户养老金替代率。将两者加总得出了未来总和养老金替代率的发展趋势。
The aging of the population caused by the decline in the birth rate and higher life expectancy makes dependency ratio of Shanghai urban workers pension system rise, and as a result, the pension funds is unsustainable. Funds in personal pension accounts are used to fill the pension gap of the pay-as-you-go pillar. Therefore the existing Shanghai workers pension system is basically a PAYG plan.
This paper analyzes the demographic, labor market and economic development in the next 30 years in Shanghai, and suggests three options for reform. The first option is to increase the statutory retirement age. Early effective retirement should be punished, so that the effective retirement age can be raised and then the statutory retirement age. The article analyzes the international experience of raising the retirement age and the feasibility of the implementation in Shanghai. The second option is to earn higher rates of return from diversified investments. The personal pension accounts should take centralized fund management. The funds should invest in a fully diversified international portfolio, part of the funds may be invested in the international market or even private equity investment fund access to a higher rate of return on investment. Risk management should adopt limited regulation. Finally, the reduction of taxes should lead to development of enterprise annuity. It will become an important complement of the public pension system and offer greater retirement income security.
We developed a simulation model with five modules. With the demographic and labor market and insurance assumptions in the next 30 years we calculated the dependency ratio of the system and simulated development of the average pension benefit after the increase of the retirement age. In simulation of personal pension accounts the concept of a standard person was introduced. The replacement rate of the personal account of an average person was also simulated assuming the real return of 4% and 6%. Add the two rate together we get the development of the sum replacement rate in the future.
本文从人口转变的角度出发分析了上海未来的人口和劳动力供给以及经济发展状况,提出三大改革措施。第一,提高法定退休年龄。首先要对提前退休进行惩罚,提高实际退休年龄,然后逐步提高法定退休年龄。文章分析了国际上提高退休年龄的经验和上海提高退休年龄的可行性。第二,做实个人账户,将个人账户资金在资本市场上进行市场化运作。建议上海个人账户资金目前采取集中管理模式。构建多元化投资组合,部分资金可投资于国际市场甚至于私墓股权投资基金,以获取较高的投资收益。风险管理方面宜采取限量监管模式。第三,采取税收优惠措施,发展企业年金,使之成为职工养老保险的一个重要补充。
本文构建了一个由五大模块组成的养老保险模型。对未来30年内人口、经济和养老保险参数作出假设,测算了未来的劳动力供给和养老保险制度的赡养比,从而模拟了提高退休年龄对未来统筹帐户平均养老金替代率的影响。在个人账户模拟时提出了标准人的概念,计算了收益率分别为4%和6%时的个人账户养老金替代率。将两者加总得出了未来总和养老金替代率的发展趋势。
The aging of the population caused by the decline in the birth rate and higher life expectancy makes dependency ratio of Shanghai urban workers pension system rise, and as a result, the pension funds is unsustainable. Funds in personal pension accounts are used to fill the pension gap of the pay-as-you-go pillar. Therefore the existing Shanghai workers pension system is basically a PAYG plan.
This paper analyzes the demographic, labor market and economic development in the next 30 years in Shanghai, and suggests three options for reform. The first option is to increase the statutory retirement age. Early effective retirement should be punished, so that the effective retirement age can be raised and then the statutory retirement age. The article analyzes the international experience of raising the retirement age and the feasibility of the implementation in Shanghai. The second option is to earn higher rates of return from diversified investments. The personal pension accounts should take centralized fund management. The funds should invest in a fully diversified international portfolio, part of the funds may be invested in the international market or even private equity investment fund access to a higher rate of return on investment. Risk management should adopt limited regulation. Finally, the reduction of taxes should lead to development of enterprise annuity. It will become an important complement of the public pension system and offer greater retirement income security.
We developed a simulation model with five modules. With the demographic and labor market and insurance assumptions in the next 30 years we calculated the dependency ratio of the system and simulated development of the average pension benefit after the increase of the retirement age. In simulation of personal pension accounts the concept of a standard person was introduced. The replacement rate of the personal account of an average person was also simulated assuming the real return of 4% and 6%. Add the two rate together we get the development of the sum replacement rate in the future.
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