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中部地区开放型经济发展的实证与对策研究
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摘要
自从国家推行西部大开发战略和东北振兴战略以后,中部地区经济发展落后问题便进一步显露出来,引起了政府部门和学术界的广泛关注。中部地区经济发展落后的原因是多方面的,而开放型经济发展滞后毫无疑问是一个非常重要的原因。2006年,中部地区拥有全国26.8%的人口和20.5%的国内生产总值,但是,中部地区的对外贸易和利用外商直接投资总额却分别只占到全国总量的3.1%和9.4%。世界许多国家和我国东部地区的实践都表明,开放型经济发展对促进经济的增长具有重要的作用,任何一个国家或地区如果不积极融入世界经济,不去充分享受国际贸易与国际分工所带来的利益,经济发展将无法持续。因此,在“中部崛起战略”已经上升为国家发展战略的关键时刻,把开放型经济发展作为中部地区经济发展的突破口,全面揭示中部地区开放型经济的发展规律,探讨中部地区对外贸易和外商直接投资发展的有效途径,无疑具有非常重要的意义。
     本文对中部地区开放型经济发展问题进行了较深入系统地研究。首先在对开放型经济发展的理论基础进行了梳理和评述的基础上,利用近二十多年的时间序列数据,全面分析了中部地区开放型经济发展现状和存在的问题,然后通过多变量回归模型、协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验方法分析了中部地区对外贸易、外商直接投资、经济增长三者之间的相互关系。同时通过构建多元回归模型揭示了中部地区开放型经济发展的主要影响因素,并从优势、劣势、挑战和机遇四个方面归纳和总结了中部地区开放型经济发展的现实条件。最后,在已有研究的基础上,从对外贸易、外商直接投资和外贸外资协同发展三个角度提出了中部地区开放型经济发展的对策建议。
     本文的主要研究结论如下:
     (1)论文分析了中部地区开放型经济发展的理论基础。分析认为,国际贸易理论主要包括比较优势理论和竞争优势理论,比较优势理论是竞争优势理论的基础,而竞争优势理论是比较优势理论的整合与发展,源于国际贸易理论的比较优势战略和竞争优势战略对中部地区对外贸易发展有较强的借鉴作用。国际直接投资理论已经形成了较为完整的体系,而渊源于国际直接投资各个理论的FDI吸收能力理论对中部地区利用外商直接投资非常富有启发意义。
     (2)论文分析了中部地区开放型经济发展的现状,并与全国开放型经济发展水平进行了比较。分析认为,中部地区对外贸易尽管近二十年来取得了较快地发展,但对外贸易规模依然偏小,而且商品结构不合理,市场过于集中,贸易方式单一,贸易主体不合理,县城外贸发展落后。中部地区外商直接投资也取得了一定的进展,但依然存在着投资规模较小,投资方式单一,投资来源过于集中以及投资行业狭窄等问题。论文还采用综合依存度法和聚类分析方法,对我国31个地区的开放型经济发展进行了比较分析,得出了中部地区开放型经济发展相对滞后的结论。
     (3)论文分析了过去二十多年来中部地区开放型经济与经济增长之间的相互关系。分析认为,中部地区对外贸易与经济增长存在着长期的均衡关系,对外贸易促进了经济增长,相对来说,出口贸易对经济增长的作用要大于进口贸易对经济增长的作用。但中部地区出口贸易与经济增长之间不存在因果关系,而经济增长是进口贸易的Granger原因,进口贸易却不是经济增长的Granger原因。中部地区外商直接投资对经济增长的直接作用和间接作用都较小,而且两者之间也不存在Granger因果关系。
     (4)论文实证分析了中部地区对外贸易与外商直接投资之间的关系。分析认为,外商直接投资不但直接扩大了中部地区对外贸易规模,而且有利于优化中部地区对外贸易商品结构;中部地区无论是出口贸易、进口贸易还是进出口贸易都对外商直接投资有一定的促进作用。但是,尽管中部地区对外贸易与外商直接投资之间有相互促进作用,而且也存在着长期的唯一协整关系,但出口贸易与外商直接投资之间没有因果关系,而进口贸易也不是外商直接投资的原因,不过,外商直接投资是进口贸易的Granger原因。
     (5)论文实证分析了中部地区开放型经济发展的影响因素,同时对全国31个地区的开放型经济发展环境进行了评估与比较。分析认为,中部地区出口贸易和进口贸易的影响因素存在很大差异,甚至可以说是完全不同的:在可能影响对外贸易的8个因素中,贸易条件、进口和全社会固定资产投资对中部地区出口贸易产生了重要影响,而中部地区进口贸易的主要影响因素则是汇率、国内生产总值、外商直接投资和人力资本。在可能影响外商直接投资的10个因素中,只有就业水平、工资水平、工业化水平、对外贸易等4个因素对中部地区外商直接投资产生了影响,而其他6个因素没有起到应有的作用;对中部地区外商直接投资影响程度由大到小依次为劳动力因素、集聚效应因素、制度因素和市场因素。本文还采用因子分析方法,对我国31个地区的开放型经济发展环境进行了比较分析。分析认为,我国各地区的发展环境差异是导致它们开放型经济发展差异的主要原因;中部地区的开放型经济发展环境在全国处于中等地位,优于西部地区,但劣于东部地区。
     (6)本文从优势、劣势、机遇和挑战四个方面分析了中部地区开放型经济发展的有利和不利条件。分析认为,中部地区开放型经济发展拥有区位和交通优势、自然资源优势、劳动力成本优势和人力资本优势,而在经济基础、产业结构及工业发展水平、市场发育程度、城市化建设和基础设施等方面都处于劣势;世界经济、世界贸易、世界直接投资的发展,我国“中部崛起战略”的实施以及国内外梯度转移给中部地区开放型经济发展带来了机遇,同时世界新贸易保护主义的重新抬头、国际直接投资发展新趋势却使中部地区开放型经济发展面临着严峻的挑战。
     (7)在上述研究的基础上,本文最后从对外贸易、外商直接投资和外贸外资协同发展三个方面提出了中部地区开放型经济发展的相关对策建议。本文认为,中部地区要发展对外贸易,首先要发挥比较优势,培育竞争优势,优化出口商品结构;然后要发展加工出口贸易,提高出口商品附加值,同时努力开拓市场,推行出口市场多元化战略;其次要深化外贸体制改革,积极培育多元化外贸经营主体;最后要积极发展县域经济、培育新的外贸增长点,同时积极应对新贸易保护主义,大力培养国际经贸人才。而中部地区只有不断地改善投资环境、优化外资产业流向、创新外商投资方式、扩大外资来源,同时加强外资引进审批和监督、改善招商方式、积极争取国家优惠政策,才能不断提高利用外商直接投资的规模和质量。同时本文认为,中部地区的开放型经济发展既不能把外贸与外资的发展割裂开来,更不能六省各行其事,而应该加强区域合作,同时兼顾对外贸易与利用外商直接投资的共同发展,努力推进中部地区的经贸一体化。
Since our country implemented the Western development strategy and the strategy of revitalizing the northeast, the central region economically backward revealed further probloms, which aroused government departments and the academic community's widespread concern. There are many reasons accounting for the backward of the economic development in the central region, among which, the lag behind the development of an opening economy is no doubt a very important reason.In 2006, the central region took up 26.8 percent of the nation's population and 20.5 percent of the GDP. However, the percentages of the central region's foreign trade and FDI to the national total were respectively 3.1% and 9.4%. The practice of many countries and China's eastern region show that the practice of opening economic development to promote economic growth plays an important role in many countries and regions; any countries or regions which are not actively integrating into the world economy, not fully sharing the interest that the international division of labor brings will not able to continue with their economy. Therefore, in the crucial moment, the Rise of Central China strategy has risen to national development strategies, regarding the opening economic development as a breakthrough of economic development, revealing a comprehensive laws and producing effective ways of the opening economic development of the central region undoubtedly is very significant.
     In this paper, issues of the central region's opening up economic development have been comprehensively, systematically and deeply studied. Firstly, on the basis of reviewing, sorting out and commmenting the theory of opening economic development, the author makes use of nearly 20 years of time-series data and comprehensively analysed the status and problems of the central region and opening up economic development status quo and then through a multi-variable regression model, co-integration analysis and Granger causality test, analyses mutual relations of foreign trade, FDI and economic growth of the central region. At the same time, By means of the construction of a multivariate regression model, the affecting factors of the central region of opening economic development are revealed, and from the aspects of advantages, disadvantages, challenges and opportunities , the reality of conditions of the opening up economic development of central region are elaborated. The last, on the basis of the study, from foreign trade, FDI and joint development of them, the proposals of opening economic development policy are put forward.
     The main conclusion of the study are as follows:
     (1) The paper analyses the main thesis of the opening economic develpoment in the central region. Analysis believes, international trade theory mainly includes the theory of comparative advantages and the theory of competitive advantage. Comparative advantage theory is based on the theory of competitive advantage, which stems from the comparative advantage theory and the theory of integration and development of it. the strategy of comparative advantages and competitive advantage which stem from international trade theory has strong reference with for the development of foreign trade in the central region. The theory of FDI has already formed an integrated system, and the theory of FDI absorption capacity originating from various FDI thoeris has enlightening significance to the use of FDI in the central region.
     (2) The paper analyses the status quo of the central region's opening economic development and compares it with the averge level of development in our country. Analysis believes that, despite the central region of foreign trade over the past 20 years has made fairly rapid development, but the scale of foreign trade is still too small, commodity structure irrational, the market too concentrated to a single trade, the main trade unreasonable, the county seat behind the development of foreign trade. FDI in the central region has also made some progress, but still there are issues of a small investment scale, single source of investment, the industry narrow of investment. The paper also make use of synthetical depending level and cluster analysis method, making a comparative analysis toward the 31 regions of China's opening up economic development, which draws a conclusion that the opening up economic development in central china is relatively fallen behind.
     (3) The papers analyses the mutual relationgship between the opening economic development and economic growth over the past 20 years. Analysis believes that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in the central region, the export trade improves economic growth, relatively speaking, the role that exports plays contributing to the economic growth is greater than import. But in the central region the causal relationship between export trade and economic growth does not exist, and economic growth is the Granger reason for the import trade while the import trade is not Granger reasons for the economic growth. The direct and indirect role of FDI plays on the economic growth in the central region is relatively small and there is not Granger causality between them.
     (4)The paper empirically analyses the relationship between the foreign trade and FDI of the central region. Analysis believes: FDI not only expands the scale of foreign trade, but will also help to optimize the structureof foreign trade of the central region; In the central region export trade, import trade or import and export trade in a certain role promote FDI. However, despite there is mutual relationship between foreign trade and FDI of the central region and there is also the only long-term co-integration, but the export trade and FDI has not causal relationship, and the import trade is not the Granger reason for FDI, but FDI is Granger reasons of import trade.
     (5)The paper empirically analyses the influencing factors of the opening economic development in the central region, meamwhile assesses the economic environment of the 31 regions of our country. The analysis says that the factors of export and import trade of central region vary considerably, and even can be said to be completely different: among the possible impact on foreign trade in the 8 factors, the terms of trade, import and social investment in fixed assets in the central exports trade has had a major impact, and the main affecting factors of the import trade in the central region are the exchange rate, GDP, FDI and human capital. Among the 10 factors which may affect FDI, labor, wage levels, the level of industrialization, foreign trade, the 4 factors on the central region have had an impact, while the other 6 factors did not play a due role. The factors affecting FDI in the central region orderly are labor factor, assembling factors, institutional factors and market factors. Paper also uses factor analysing method, making a comparative analysis of China's 31 regions of the opening economic development environment. Analysis believes that the environment difference of the opening economic development in China's 31 regions is the impertant reason which results in the difference of growth; and central regions of the opening economic development environment lie in the middle position, better than the western region, but worse than the eastern region.
     (6) This paper, from strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges, the four areas analyses the favorable and unfavorable conditions of the opening up economic development in the central region. The analysis says that the opening up economic development in the central region has the central zone advantages, transport advantages, superiority in natural resources, labor cost advantage and human capital advantage, and there are also disavantages in these areas such as economic base, the level of industrial development, market development, urban construction and infrastructure. The world economy, the international trade, the international direct investment in the world, as well as the implementation of China's "Central China Strategy" bring opportunities to the central region, and at the same time the world's new resurgence of trade protectionism and the new trends of FDI development has made the development of an open economy facing severe challenges in the central region.
     (7) Based on the above study, as far as the development of central region opening economy, the paper puts forward relevant Countermeasures from foreign trade, FDI and joint development of them. This article holds that if the central region develop foreign trade, they must play a comparative advantage, foster competitive advantage, optimize the structure of export commodities; must develop export processing trade, increase the added value of export commodities. Efforts must be made to expand the market, promote the diversification of the export market strategy, we must deepen foreign trade system reform, actively cultivate diversified foreign trade business entity, actively develop county economy, and foster new growth in foreign trade; we must actively respond to the new trade protectionism, reduce the negative effects of trade protectionism. We must vigorously train personnel of international trade, improve the overall quality of management of foreign trade and economic cooperation. Only we continue to improve the investment environment, optimize the flow of foreign investment industries, foreign investment in innovative ways to develop enterprise mergers and acquisitions, expand sources of foreign capital, and strengthen the examination and approval of foreign investment introduction supervision, and improve the investment direction and actively seek the state's preferential policies and FDI in a reasonable guide, can we continue to improve the use of FDI scale and quality. At the same time, this paper believes, we can't split the development of foreign trade and FDI in the central regions, nor do we do our own in the six provinces, but should strengthen regional cooperation, take into account foreign trade and utilization of FDI in the development, and make efforts to promote the FDI and trade integration.
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