中国农业上市公司盈利性的影响因素研究
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摘要
中国是一个发展中的农业大国,农业在中国具有特殊的重要性。加快农业发展离不开农业产业化组织的构建与完善,离不开以现代企业制度为特征的公司化运作。农业上市公司作为我国现阶段先进农业生产力的企业组织代表,具有扶持、帮助农户进行农业生产性投资、实现农业科技进步的巨大推动作用。但实际上农业上市公司的盈利状况非常堪忧,2006年沪市A股平均每股收益率为0.17元,深市A股平均每股收益率为0.11元,而2006年农业上市公司的平均每股收益率虽然达到了正值,但仅为0.078。2005年沪市A股平均每股收益率为0.35元;深市A股平均每股收益率为0.22元,而2005年农业上市公司的平均每股收益率为负值-0.027,相对于整体上市公司的业绩相差甚远。这说明农业上市公司的盈利整体虽然在2006年度略有上升,但相对于整个上市公司来说,其盈利能力还是较低的。2006年,每股收益率和净资产收益率为负的农业上市公司有10家,占总家数的15.87%,2005年每股收益率和净资产收益率为负的农业上市公司达到了16家,占总家数的26.23%,相对于2004年这两个指标为负的12家,多了4家,这再次说明农业上市公司的盈利状况令人担忧。可见,我国的农业上市公司在经济建设中并未起到其应有的作用,农业上市公司不仅在数量上与关系国计民生的重要地位极不相称,而且在质量上也很令人担忧,农业上市公司要承担起应有的责任,必须提高其盈利能力。
本文正是要去分析是哪些因素影响了农业上市公司盈利,农业上市公司如何才能实现并保持可持续的盈利增长,这是个需要迫切解决的问题。在提出研究问题的基础上,本文设计了以下几个具体目标:①分析农业上市公司管理层激励对公司盈利的影响;②分析农业上市公司股权结构对公司盈利的影响;③分析农业上市公司补贴支持对公司盈利的影响;④根据研究结果,提出改善农业上市公司盈利的政策建议。
为了完成上述研究目标,本文在文献查阅分析、借鉴国内外理论与实践、综合已有研究成果的基础上,运用目前可以获得的数据资料,运用多元回归模型和面板数据模型对在深圳和上海两交易所上市的农业上市公司的盈利进行了实证研究,通过对比,我们发现面板数据模型的分析结果更优,它结合了横截面维度和时间维度的特点,更有效地发挥了样本数据的特征,我们选择出了更优的模型分析结果,以揭示不同的农业上市公司盈利高低存在的原因,以期对提高我国农业上市公司的盈利提供启示和借鉴。本研究将有利于政府制定和完善适合我国农业上市公司盈利的制度,创造更有利的市场环境;有利于农业上市公司根据自身条件制定提高盈利增长性的战略计划;有利于广大投资者在考虑农业上市公司时做出更理性的选择。
本文的主要研究内容如下:
一、农业上市公司的现状分析。分析农业上市公司在整个股票市场所处的地位,对农业上市公司的行业和地区分布、财务状况、股权结构、补贴支持方面情况进行总结。分析农业上市公司与证券市场的联系,以及农业上市公司与WTO的关系。
二、农业上市公司管理层激励对公司盈利的影响分析。基于面板数据模型,选取衡量农业上市公司管理层激励的指标作为解释变量,分析管理层激励对农业上市公司盈利的影响。
三、农业上市公司股权结构对公司盈利的影响分析。基于面板数据模型,选取衡量农业上市公司股权结构的多个指标作为解释变量,分析股权结构对农业上市公司盈利的影响。
四、农业上市公司补贴支持对公司盈利的影响分析。补贴收入是政府对农业上市公司的财政支持的一种重要手段,基于面板数据模型,分析补贴支持对农业上市公司盈利的影响。
五、建议与对策。在总结前几章的基础上,结合农业上市公司的现状,提出提高农业上市公司盈利的建议与对策。
通过对研究的总结,为了达到提高农业上市公司盈利的目的,我们提出了如下的对策与建议:首先,要提高农业上市公司管理层收入和管理层持股比例;要提高农业上市公司管理层收入的绝对水平和相对水平,改善农业上市公司管理层收入结构,推进农业上市公司管理层持股。其次,要优化农业上市公司的股权结构;要建立多个大股东股权制衡的股权集中度结构,适度控制农业上市公司国有股持股比例,改变流通股的股东构成,引入有治理能力的机构投资者,建立健全完善的监督机制。另外,要合理分配农业上市公司的补贴政策;要建立公正有效的补贴机制,调整补贴方向,提高农业上市公司竞争力。
China is a large agricultural country as well as a developing country. Agriculture has special importance in China. Accelerating the development of agriculture can't go without the construction and improvement of the industrialization of the agricultural organizations; either can't go without the operation taken in enterprises with the characteristics of modern enterprise system. Representing the advanced agricultural productivity in china, the listed Agricultural companies give a great drive not only to the support and help to the peasant household on carrying on agricultural productive investment, but to the realization of the agricultural scientific and technological progress. But actually, the profits state of the listed companies make people feel very concerned, as the average earning ratio per share in A-share of stock markets of Shanghai was only 0.17RMB in 2006, the average earning ratio per share of the A-share of Shenzhen stock market is only 0.11RMB, although the average earning ratio per share of the agricultural listed companies were positive in 2006, but only 0.078.the average earning ratio per share in A-share of stock markets of Shanghai was only 0.35RMB in 2005, the average earning ratio per share of the A-share of Shenzhen stock market is only 0.22RMB, but the average earning ratio per share of the agricultural listed companies were negative in 2005, the average value were -0.027, compared with the performance of the whole listed companies, the listed agribusiness's profits were so poor. This shows that profitability of all agricultural listed companies had a slight increase in 2006, but it was low relative to the whole listed companies. There were 10 listed agricultural companies had the negative value in the earning ratio and return on net assets per share in 2006, which accounted for 15.87% of the whole companies, There were 16 listed agricultural companies had the negative value in the earning ratio and return on net assets per share in 2005, which accounted for 26.23% of the whole companies, while this number in 2004 were 12, 4 less than that in 2005, It proves that the whole performance of the listed agricultural companies was worrying. It is obvious that the listed agricultural company in china has not played its full function in economic development. Neither the number of the listed agricultural company can meet its importance to the national economy, nor do their qualities make people satisfied. The listed agricultural company must improve its ability of realizing profits in order to shoulder its due responsibility.
This thesis is to analyze what are the factors influencing profits of the listed agricultural company and how the listed agricultural companies achieve and maintain sustainable profits growth, this is a problem urgently needs to be solved. On the basis of putting forward problem of studying, this thesis has designed the following concrete targets:①It analyzes the influence that the encouragement from the management teams of listed agriculture companies has on companies' profits.②Analyze the stock share structural influence on making profits in the company.③Analyze the influence that the listed agricultural company's economic allowance and support has on making profits in the company;④According to the results of study, put forward the political recommendation on how to improve the profit state of the listed agricultural company.
To achieve the research goal described above, based on the search and analysis of the literature, the reference of the theory and practice home and abroad and the integration of the existed research results, this thesis use the statistics that could be obtained at hand and use plural regression model and panel data model respectively to carry on the positive research on the profit of the listed agricultural company which listed on two exchanges in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Through the contrast, we find the analysis result of the panel data model better; it combines the characteristics of the cross section dimensionality and that of time dimensionality together, and gives play to the characteristics of the sample data more effectively. Thus, we choose a better model analysis result in order to reveal the reason why different agricultural profit level of listed company exists, and expect to offer some inspirations and references to increase of the profit of the listed agricultural company in china. This research will be propitious of government to constitute some systems suiting the development of Chinese listed agricultural company,to create the more advantageous market environment; be propitious of companies to constitute the strategic planning to enhancement profit grows according to own condition; be propitious of general investors to make a more rational choice.
The central contents are as follows:
One: Current situation analysis of the listed agricultural company. Analyze the position that the listed agricultural companies take in the whole stock market. Summarize the industries and the regional division, the financial state, the stock structure, subsidy and support policies of listed agribusinesses. Analyze the relation between listed agribusiness and securities business, and the relation between the listed agricultural companies and WTO.
Two: The analysis of the influence that the encouragement from the management office in listed agricultural companies has on the profits. Based on the panel data model, we chose some indexes that reflect the encouragement from the management office in listed agricultural companies as the explaining variable to analyze the influence that the encouragement of the management levels has on the profits of the listed agricultural companies.
Three: Analysis of the influence that the stock share structure has on the profits of the listed agricultural companies. Based on the panel data model, chosen a series of indexes weighing the agricultural stock right structure of listed company as the explaining variable, analyze the structural influence on making profits in the listed agricultural company.
Four: The analysis of the influence that subsidy and support has on the profit of the companies. The subsidy income is an important measure that the government gives financial support to the listed agricultural company. Based on the panel data model, analyze the influence that the subsidy and support has on the profits of the listed agricultural companies.
Five: recommendations and proposals. Based on the summary of the seven chapters before, considered the current situation of the listed agricultural company, we at last offer the suggestions and proposals of improving the profits of the listed agricultural company.
Through the summary of the study, we have proposed the following proposals and suggestions in order to achieve the goal of improving the profits of the listed agricultural companies: First of all, we should raise the income of the management office workers and ratio of their stock shares in the listed agricultural companies; raise the dead level and relative level of the income of the management level officials, optimize their income structure, promote the management level staff to hold the stock share. Secondly, optimize the stock right structure of the listed agricultural company; Set up the stock right concentration structure that stock rights are checked and balanced by several big shareholders, bring in the institutional investors with good managerial abilities, establish and improve the supervision system. In addition, set up the reasonable subsidy policy in listed agricultural companies, build a just and effective subsidy system, modulate the subsidy direction, and eventually raise the competitiveness of the listed agricultural companies.
本文正是要去分析是哪些因素影响了农业上市公司盈利,农业上市公司如何才能实现并保持可持续的盈利增长,这是个需要迫切解决的问题。在提出研究问题的基础上,本文设计了以下几个具体目标:①分析农业上市公司管理层激励对公司盈利的影响;②分析农业上市公司股权结构对公司盈利的影响;③分析农业上市公司补贴支持对公司盈利的影响;④根据研究结果,提出改善农业上市公司盈利的政策建议。
为了完成上述研究目标,本文在文献查阅分析、借鉴国内外理论与实践、综合已有研究成果的基础上,运用目前可以获得的数据资料,运用多元回归模型和面板数据模型对在深圳和上海两交易所上市的农业上市公司的盈利进行了实证研究,通过对比,我们发现面板数据模型的分析结果更优,它结合了横截面维度和时间维度的特点,更有效地发挥了样本数据的特征,我们选择出了更优的模型分析结果,以揭示不同的农业上市公司盈利高低存在的原因,以期对提高我国农业上市公司的盈利提供启示和借鉴。本研究将有利于政府制定和完善适合我国农业上市公司盈利的制度,创造更有利的市场环境;有利于农业上市公司根据自身条件制定提高盈利增长性的战略计划;有利于广大投资者在考虑农业上市公司时做出更理性的选择。
本文的主要研究内容如下:
一、农业上市公司的现状分析。分析农业上市公司在整个股票市场所处的地位,对农业上市公司的行业和地区分布、财务状况、股权结构、补贴支持方面情况进行总结。分析农业上市公司与证券市场的联系,以及农业上市公司与WTO的关系。
二、农业上市公司管理层激励对公司盈利的影响分析。基于面板数据模型,选取衡量农业上市公司管理层激励的指标作为解释变量,分析管理层激励对农业上市公司盈利的影响。
三、农业上市公司股权结构对公司盈利的影响分析。基于面板数据模型,选取衡量农业上市公司股权结构的多个指标作为解释变量,分析股权结构对农业上市公司盈利的影响。
四、农业上市公司补贴支持对公司盈利的影响分析。补贴收入是政府对农业上市公司的财政支持的一种重要手段,基于面板数据模型,分析补贴支持对农业上市公司盈利的影响。
五、建议与对策。在总结前几章的基础上,结合农业上市公司的现状,提出提高农业上市公司盈利的建议与对策。
通过对研究的总结,为了达到提高农业上市公司盈利的目的,我们提出了如下的对策与建议:首先,要提高农业上市公司管理层收入和管理层持股比例;要提高农业上市公司管理层收入的绝对水平和相对水平,改善农业上市公司管理层收入结构,推进农业上市公司管理层持股。其次,要优化农业上市公司的股权结构;要建立多个大股东股权制衡的股权集中度结构,适度控制农业上市公司国有股持股比例,改变流通股的股东构成,引入有治理能力的机构投资者,建立健全完善的监督机制。另外,要合理分配农业上市公司的补贴政策;要建立公正有效的补贴机制,调整补贴方向,提高农业上市公司竞争力。
China is a large agricultural country as well as a developing country. Agriculture has special importance in China. Accelerating the development of agriculture can't go without the construction and improvement of the industrialization of the agricultural organizations; either can't go without the operation taken in enterprises with the characteristics of modern enterprise system. Representing the advanced agricultural productivity in china, the listed Agricultural companies give a great drive not only to the support and help to the peasant household on carrying on agricultural productive investment, but to the realization of the agricultural scientific and technological progress. But actually, the profits state of the listed companies make people feel very concerned, as the average earning ratio per share in A-share of stock markets of Shanghai was only 0.17RMB in 2006, the average earning ratio per share of the A-share of Shenzhen stock market is only 0.11RMB, although the average earning ratio per share of the agricultural listed companies were positive in 2006, but only 0.078.the average earning ratio per share in A-share of stock markets of Shanghai was only 0.35RMB in 2005, the average earning ratio per share of the A-share of Shenzhen stock market is only 0.22RMB, but the average earning ratio per share of the agricultural listed companies were negative in 2005, the average value were -0.027, compared with the performance of the whole listed companies, the listed agribusiness's profits were so poor. This shows that profitability of all agricultural listed companies had a slight increase in 2006, but it was low relative to the whole listed companies. There were 10 listed agricultural companies had the negative value in the earning ratio and return on net assets per share in 2006, which accounted for 15.87% of the whole companies, There were 16 listed agricultural companies had the negative value in the earning ratio and return on net assets per share in 2005, which accounted for 26.23% of the whole companies, while this number in 2004 were 12, 4 less than that in 2005, It proves that the whole performance of the listed agricultural companies was worrying. It is obvious that the listed agricultural company in china has not played its full function in economic development. Neither the number of the listed agricultural company can meet its importance to the national economy, nor do their qualities make people satisfied. The listed agricultural company must improve its ability of realizing profits in order to shoulder its due responsibility.
This thesis is to analyze what are the factors influencing profits of the listed agricultural company and how the listed agricultural companies achieve and maintain sustainable profits growth, this is a problem urgently needs to be solved. On the basis of putting forward problem of studying, this thesis has designed the following concrete targets:①It analyzes the influence that the encouragement from the management teams of listed agriculture companies has on companies' profits.②Analyze the stock share structural influence on making profits in the company.③Analyze the influence that the listed agricultural company's economic allowance and support has on making profits in the company;④According to the results of study, put forward the political recommendation on how to improve the profit state of the listed agricultural company.
To achieve the research goal described above, based on the search and analysis of the literature, the reference of the theory and practice home and abroad and the integration of the existed research results, this thesis use the statistics that could be obtained at hand and use plural regression model and panel data model respectively to carry on the positive research on the profit of the listed agricultural company which listed on two exchanges in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Through the contrast, we find the analysis result of the panel data model better; it combines the characteristics of the cross section dimensionality and that of time dimensionality together, and gives play to the characteristics of the sample data more effectively. Thus, we choose a better model analysis result in order to reveal the reason why different agricultural profit level of listed company exists, and expect to offer some inspirations and references to increase of the profit of the listed agricultural company in china. This research will be propitious of government to constitute some systems suiting the development of Chinese listed agricultural company,to create the more advantageous market environment; be propitious of companies to constitute the strategic planning to enhancement profit grows according to own condition; be propitious of general investors to make a more rational choice.
The central contents are as follows:
One: Current situation analysis of the listed agricultural company. Analyze the position that the listed agricultural companies take in the whole stock market. Summarize the industries and the regional division, the financial state, the stock structure, subsidy and support policies of listed agribusinesses. Analyze the relation between listed agribusiness and securities business, and the relation between the listed agricultural companies and WTO.
Two: The analysis of the influence that the encouragement from the management office in listed agricultural companies has on the profits. Based on the panel data model, we chose some indexes that reflect the encouragement from the management office in listed agricultural companies as the explaining variable to analyze the influence that the encouragement of the management levels has on the profits of the listed agricultural companies.
Three: Analysis of the influence that the stock share structure has on the profits of the listed agricultural companies. Based on the panel data model, chosen a series of indexes weighing the agricultural stock right structure of listed company as the explaining variable, analyze the structural influence on making profits in the listed agricultural company.
Four: The analysis of the influence that subsidy and support has on the profit of the companies. The subsidy income is an important measure that the government gives financial support to the listed agricultural company. Based on the panel data model, analyze the influence that the subsidy and support has on the profits of the listed agricultural companies.
Five: recommendations and proposals. Based on the summary of the seven chapters before, considered the current situation of the listed agricultural company, we at last offer the suggestions and proposals of improving the profits of the listed agricultural company.
Through the summary of the study, we have proposed the following proposals and suggestions in order to achieve the goal of improving the profits of the listed agricultural companies: First of all, we should raise the income of the management office workers and ratio of their stock shares in the listed agricultural companies; raise the dead level and relative level of the income of the management level officials, optimize their income structure, promote the management level staff to hold the stock share. Secondly, optimize the stock right structure of the listed agricultural company; Set up the stock right concentration structure that stock rights are checked and balanced by several big shareholders, bring in the institutional investors with good managerial abilities, establish and improve the supervision system. In addition, set up the reasonable subsidy policy in listed agricultural companies, build a just and effective subsidy system, modulate the subsidy direction, and eventually raise the competitiveness of the listed agricultural companies.
引文
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