电力系统连锁反应故障的预防与控制研究
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摘要
随着电网互联程度的加深,在取得了较大经济效益的同时,电网的整体安全性也受到更严重的威胁,局部电网某些故障的影响有可能波及附近的区域电网,并诱发连锁反应,元件相继退出运行造成大面积停电甚至整个电网的崩溃。因此,如何有效地防止电力系统连锁反应故障是避免大停电事故的关键。
论文首先通过对三起连锁故障导致的大停电事故演化过程的总结分析,概括了连锁故障导致大停电的一般模式,得出连锁故障在传播过程表现出来的演化规律。典型的连锁反应大停电事故初始故障与触发故障发生时刻之间的时间间隔都比较长,初始故障集合各元素发生时刻的时间间隔也较长,初始故障集合中的各个故障不断恶化系统的状态,而触发故障导致系统发生连锁反应,最终可能导致系统崩溃,连锁故障阶段各个故障间的时间间隔小到几分钟、几秒钟,有时甚至是同时发生。因此应在初始故障阶段进行调整,避免进入连锁故障阶段。
论文结合协同学理论解释了连锁故障的演化机理。连锁故障导致大停电的过程在一定意义上可以看成是电网各元件间关联作用逐渐增强,某个或某几个元件故障,导致与其关联强的元件退出运行,促使系统进入临界状态,最终形成整个系统崩溃的过程。
论文建立了连锁故障预防的多阶段序贯博弈模型。模型将连锁故障博弈多阶段过程分解为单个阶段,每个阶段以电网的一次扰动开始,以电网的调整结束,即包含博弈双方的各一次行动。调整后的电网,能够承受电网的下次扰动,下次扰动发生后再进行调整,如此反复。在此基础上,提出了博弈模型的单阶段逆向归纳解法,并用博弈树描述博弈的过程。由于仅针对博弈过程的单个阶段进行求解,且在求解过程中反复剔除电网扰动方的劣行动,因此计算量非常小,适合于在线应用。同时,模型具有良好的开放性,新的电网扰动类型以及扰动带来系统新的问题都可计入模型。
最后,论文给出了上述模型在实际电网中可行的两种应用模式,提出了基于模式识别理论的电网运行方式匹配方法,基于该方法,应用模式一的实现成为可能。
With the development of power grid interconnection, not only was great economic benefit achieved, but also power grid was threatened. Some fault in local grid may extend and induce cascading failure. Components quited from grid one after another. This leads to blackouts. So prevention of cascading failures is the key to avoid blackouts.
The processes of three blackouts, which are causes by cascading failures are analyzed in the paper. Generic scenario of a cascading blackout is summarizing. By summarizing the course of development of them, evaluative laws and general characteristics of cascading failures are drawn. It is long time between initial fault and trigger fault in typical cascading failure. And it is large intervals among faults in initial phase. The faults in initial phase deteriorate system state and the trigger fault results in cascading failure. Sometimes the faults in cascading phase happened simultaneously. So adjustments must be executed in initial phase to avoid entering into cascading phase.
Mechanism of cascading failures is analyzed. In the process of blackout caused by cascading failure, the relation among components is gradually increased, the system enters into self-organized critical state and the system collapses. Based on analysis of evolution law of cascading failure, the paper analyses the mechanism and preventing strategies of cascading failure and puts forward search method of cascading failure by analogy with simple phenomenons.
In the paper, a multi-stage sequential-move game model is set up. The model decompose multi-stage into single stage. Each side has one action during single stage: begin with disturbance and end with adjustment. The power grid which has been adjusted can bear next disturbances and it is readjusted after next disturbances. On this basis, the single-stage backwards induction method of solving game model. The process of game is described with game tree. The computation burden is greatly reduced by iterated elimination of weakly actions, and it is well suited for on-line application. The model has good openness, new types of disturbance and new problem can be included in the model.
At last, two patterns are put forward to apply the game model to actual power grid. Matching method between two operation mode is brought forth. Based on this method, pattern one comes true.
论文首先通过对三起连锁故障导致的大停电事故演化过程的总结分析,概括了连锁故障导致大停电的一般模式,得出连锁故障在传播过程表现出来的演化规律。典型的连锁反应大停电事故初始故障与触发故障发生时刻之间的时间间隔都比较长,初始故障集合各元素发生时刻的时间间隔也较长,初始故障集合中的各个故障不断恶化系统的状态,而触发故障导致系统发生连锁反应,最终可能导致系统崩溃,连锁故障阶段各个故障间的时间间隔小到几分钟、几秒钟,有时甚至是同时发生。因此应在初始故障阶段进行调整,避免进入连锁故障阶段。
论文结合协同学理论解释了连锁故障的演化机理。连锁故障导致大停电的过程在一定意义上可以看成是电网各元件间关联作用逐渐增强,某个或某几个元件故障,导致与其关联强的元件退出运行,促使系统进入临界状态,最终形成整个系统崩溃的过程。
论文建立了连锁故障预防的多阶段序贯博弈模型。模型将连锁故障博弈多阶段过程分解为单个阶段,每个阶段以电网的一次扰动开始,以电网的调整结束,即包含博弈双方的各一次行动。调整后的电网,能够承受电网的下次扰动,下次扰动发生后再进行调整,如此反复。在此基础上,提出了博弈模型的单阶段逆向归纳解法,并用博弈树描述博弈的过程。由于仅针对博弈过程的单个阶段进行求解,且在求解过程中反复剔除电网扰动方的劣行动,因此计算量非常小,适合于在线应用。同时,模型具有良好的开放性,新的电网扰动类型以及扰动带来系统新的问题都可计入模型。
最后,论文给出了上述模型在实际电网中可行的两种应用模式,提出了基于模式识别理论的电网运行方式匹配方法,基于该方法,应用模式一的实现成为可能。
With the development of power grid interconnection, not only was great economic benefit achieved, but also power grid was threatened. Some fault in local grid may extend and induce cascading failure. Components quited from grid one after another. This leads to blackouts. So prevention of cascading failures is the key to avoid blackouts.
The processes of three blackouts, which are causes by cascading failures are analyzed in the paper. Generic scenario of a cascading blackout is summarizing. By summarizing the course of development of them, evaluative laws and general characteristics of cascading failures are drawn. It is long time between initial fault and trigger fault in typical cascading failure. And it is large intervals among faults in initial phase. The faults in initial phase deteriorate system state and the trigger fault results in cascading failure. Sometimes the faults in cascading phase happened simultaneously. So adjustments must be executed in initial phase to avoid entering into cascading phase.
Mechanism of cascading failures is analyzed. In the process of blackout caused by cascading failure, the relation among components is gradually increased, the system enters into self-organized critical state and the system collapses. Based on analysis of evolution law of cascading failure, the paper analyses the mechanism and preventing strategies of cascading failure and puts forward search method of cascading failure by analogy with simple phenomenons.
In the paper, a multi-stage sequential-move game model is set up. The model decompose multi-stage into single stage. Each side has one action during single stage: begin with disturbance and end with adjustment. The power grid which has been adjusted can bear next disturbances and it is readjusted after next disturbances. On this basis, the single-stage backwards induction method of solving game model. The process of game is described with game tree. The computation burden is greatly reduced by iterated elimination of weakly actions, and it is well suited for on-line application. The model has good openness, new types of disturbance and new problem can be included in the model.
At last, two patterns are put forward to apply the game model to actual power grid. Matching method between two operation mode is brought forth. Based on this method, pattern one comes true.
引文
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