经济增长理论的成长
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摘要
以有利于切入正题，对世界近、现代经济增长的概况通过下表进行大致描述。
通过上表我们可以看到：在不同时期，世界的人均国民收入的平均年增长率是差别很大的，而且不同国家的增长率差异也很大，并且经济高速增长现象仅发生在近两个世纪。因为人均国民收入的增长与人们的福利关系密切，所以研究者力图探求经济增长之谜，以更好地理解已经发生的经济增长现象和促进未来的经济增长。
面对各国的经济增长和增长的差异问题，卢卡斯(Robert E．Jr．Lucas，1988)曾经说：“这些问题所包含的人类福利后果是令人震惊的：一个人一旦思考这些问题，他就很难再去思考其他问题。”倾心于经济增长有关问题的迷人魅力，很多研究者把聪明才智和毕生精力倾注到探索经济增长之谜中去。他们不同时期的研究成果也就构成了今天所谓的经济增长理论。由于他们的研究成果所处的时代背景和所用的研究方法不同，也就从客观上形成了不同阶段的经济增长理论。本文就按历史时间顺序把这些研究成果划分为不同发展阶段的经济增长理论。在此需要提及的是，虽然与增长有关的主题很多，比如健康、不平等、教育、污染、可持续、自由等其他很多别的主题，这里不考虑这些问题，尽管这些问题和增长本身一样重要，而只是把精力集中于经济增长理论演变自身，而且更关注于主流的经济增长理论。
本文按照三条主线来评述经济增长理论。一、人类经济活动，特别是经济增长活动的现实发展，是经济增长理论演变的现实逻辑主线；二、经济增长模型的逻辑发展，尤其是生产函数及其所包含投入要素外延和内涵的变化是经济增长理论发展的理论逻辑主线；三、研究方法的发展，不同历史时期的经济增长理论运用了不同的研究方法和研究工具，研究方法和工具的创新是促进经济增长理论发展的方法逻辑主线。可以说，这三条逻辑主线共同构成了经济增长理论发展的脉络。解释人类经济增长运行活动层面的不同，采用生产函数的不同，以及生产函数中变量外延和内涵的不同，所用研究方法和研究工具的不同，就造成了不同阶段的经济增长理论和模型的本质差别。
本文包括以下重要部分：
一、绪论
简单介绍本文写作的意义、研究思路、研究方法、创新和不足之处。
二、经济增长理论的构成要素
经济增长理论要解决的重要问题之一就是通过一些假设和某种研究方法研究国民产出的增长问题。所以有必要把构成增长理论的各个组成要素做一介绍。它们包括：经济增长理论研究的对象；经济增长和经济的发展意义及其区别；资本、劳动、技术、生产函数等概念的定义以及在经济增长模型中的应用；增长的收敛、稳态增长的性质；经济增长理论研究所使用的方法等。
三、经济增长理论研究框架的建立
这个部分介绍古典经济学理论中的经济增长理论以及出现在此前的经济增长思想。可分为两个阶段：一为前古典时期的经济增长思想，即为经济增长理论框架的建立积蓄力量的时期；二为古典经济增长理论，也为经济增长理论研究框架的建立阶段。第一阶段主要是重农主义者(魁奈(Francois Quesnay，1694-1774))、重商主义者(配第(William Petty，1623-1687年)和坎蒂隆(RichardCantillon，1680-1734))等代表人物的经济增长思想；第二阶段主要是古典经济理论代表人物的经济增长思想，有斯密(Adam Smith，1723-1790)、李嘉图(David Ricardo，1772-1823)、马尔萨斯(Thomas Robert Malthus，1766-1834)、穆勒(John Stuart Mill，1806-1873)等。
四、经济增长理论的第一次革命
也是经济增长理论从古典阶段到新古典阶段之间的重要过渡阶段。学者一般公认哈罗德和多马模型(Harrod-Domar Model)是经济增长理论的第一次革命，他们的贡献使经济增长理论的研究走上了一条正确的道路，即用数理工具建立规范的模型对经济增长及其影响经济增长的变量进行分析研究。
五、经济增长理论发展的第二次革命
也是新古典经济增长理论发展阶段，这里主要介绍索洛和斯旺模型(Solow-Swan Model)和拉姆齐、卡斯和库普曼斯模型(Ramsey-Cass-KoopmansModel)。当然也有很多别的模型可以归为新古典经济增长理论，而且以上两个模型也分别被很多研究者扩展和改造，但结论和影响都没能超出这两个模型，所以就没有对其模型进行介绍。
六、经济增长理论发展的第三次革命
也是内生经济增长理论发展阶段，也称为新经济增长理论。其包括很多内容，文献繁多。这里选择了具有代表性的人物及其贡献进行较为详细地介绍。并划分为两个阶段：其一是内生经济增长理论的前期准备阶段，这个阶段的研究者虽然试图把技术、人力资本、知识和其他因素引进生产函数，使经济增长内生化于所创建的模型。不过，由于当时新古典经济增长理论的影响还很强劲，别的经济学分支还没有给经济增长理论研究提供新的分析视角、方法和研究工具，最重要的是决定经济增长理论发展的最根本因素——经济增长现实的发展——还没有使这些需要内生化的因素在经济运行的增长过程中凸现出来，所以这些模型并没有把这些因素真正内生化，而只能被称之为半内生模型，即经济增长率的决定仍然需要外生于模型外的因素。其二是内生经济增长理论的繁荣昌盛阶段，这个时期的模型才能够称之为真正意义上的内生经济增长模型，也就是我们通常所说内生经济增长理论。当然根据内生因素的不同它们又可以分为几个类别。
七、现代研究方法和古典研究方法兼顾的阶段
由于新古典经济增长理论和新增长理论中很多模型中，制度要素的缺失造成理论解释现实的能力不够。所以研究者采用现代研究方法和古典研究方法制度纳入模型和分析框架，形成了制度经济增长理论和演化经济增长理论，当然研究也兼顾了其他诸如地理、自然资源和人口等因素的探讨。
八、工业革命、经济危机、经济学流派和经济增长理论演变
经济运行活动重大事件的发生、技术革命及其引起的工业革命都给经济学流派的产生和演变创造了契机，对于经济增长理论亦是如此。纵观经济学流派和经济增长理论的演变历史，便可看到它们和技术革命、工业革命和经济危机这些人类经济活动发展历史上的重要事件有密切的关系，本部分就尝试揭示它们之间的某些关联之处。
九、经济增长理论的实证研究
由于计量经济学的发展和各国经济增长有关数据的整理和收集，给分析一个国的经济增长和比较各国经济增长提供了方便。本部分就对此简单介绍，主要有经济增长源泉分析，对一些模型和理论的实证检验，对一组国家增长现象的比较研究等。
十、新的尝试和经济增长理论进一步发展的方向
这一部分综合了涉及到经济增长的几乎全部重要要素，创建了一个较为复杂的经济增长模型。而这个模型会随着所考虑要素的不同和分析方法及工具的不同而退化为不同的经济增长模型和理论。纵观人类经济增长活动的进化历史，在不同进化历史阶段，各种要素的作用是不同的。所以可以从历史的角度，来看待经济增长活动和理解表述经济增长活动的经济增长理论。
根据模型、理论和思想产生的历史和经济背景、所用分析和研究方法的不同、模型假设和理论逻辑的不同，我们可以把经济增长理论分为以上几个阶段。在行文中，本文采用历史描述、归纳总结、比较分析等方法对经济增长理论的发展脉络进行描述。从而对这些理论贡献进行很好的掌握，并了解它们产生的背景，它们之间的联系以及创新和局限之处。在此基础之上，才有可能很好地运用现有的经济增长理论，对经济运行进行有效的指导，以及尝试找到理论进一步发展的方向。
The outline of the growth of the world economy can be broadly described in the following table.
From the table, we can easily get that the growth rate of the national per income of the world is quite different from different times. And the economic growth just happens in these two recent centuries. What's more, there is also a great difference in the speed of the per growth among different countries. Because of the importance of the growth of the national income to the welfare of the people, we must explore the mystery of the growth of the economy in order to well understand the process of the growth and to accelate the growth of the economy.
In the face of the problem of the economic growth and the growth differences among different countries, Lucus once said: "It is amazing of the result of the human welfare that is contained in these prolbems: It is very different for him to think other problems once a person begins to consider these problems." Because of the charm of the problem of the economic growth, there are many economists who devote their talents and energies to exploring the mystery of the economic growth. Therefore, the study of the different times consitutes the so-called theory of economic growth of today. Because of the differences of their periods and the research methods, it formed the theory of economic growth of different phases. In this paper, we will classify the theorist of economic growth according to the chronology so as to divide the results of their research into different theory of economic growth. It is noted that although there are many themes relating to the growth, such as health, inequality, education, pollution, sustainable, freedom, and so on, we don't consider these problems. Although these problems are also as important as the growth itself, we only focus on the evolution of growth theory, what's more, we lay more emphasis on the mainstream of economic growth theory.
In this paper, we will review the theory of economic growth from three aspects. First, the economic activities, especially the realistic development of the operation of the growth. Compared with the economic activities, although other human activities will also influence the evolution of the theory of economic growth, it is slender. Second, the logic development of the economic growth models, particually the production function and the changes of the variable containing in them. Third, the development of the research method, there are different research methods and research tools with the theory of economic growth of different historiclal periods. The innovation of the method and the tool promote the development of the theory of economic growth. Therefore, it can be said that these three factors together form the development of the growth theory. The explaination of the different levels of the human growth operation, the distinctnesses of the using of the production function, the differences of the variable in production function and the meanings of different variable and the dissimilar research methods and tools, which form the diverse theory of economic growth. This paper will study the theory of economic growth according to these three main aspects in order to explore the rule of the development of the theory of economic growth and the directiong of its future development. This paper generally includes the following important parts, One, introduction.Briefly introduce the significance, resecrch ideas and research methods, innovation and inadequacy of this paper. Two, the factors of the theory of economic growth.
In this part, we will introduce the various factors which constitute the theory of economic growth in details. One important problem that the theory of economic growth should solve is to research the problem of the national output growth through some assumptions and research method. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the various factors of the growth theory. They are as follows, the significance of the growth of the national wealth and the differences between them, the definition of the capital, labor,thchnology, production function and their applications in the theory of economic growth, the nature of the convergence growth and the steady growth and the method of the research of the growth theory.
Three, the classical theory of economic growth.
In this phase, the framework of the growth theory is established preliminaryly. In this part, we will introduce the theory of economic growth contained in the classical economic theory and the concept of economic growth ahead of it. There are many scholars who put forward the concept of economic growth, but our work is far from complete, so we only choose some inportant and representative concepts to analyze and study and to conclude. We will divide this period into two phases, the first one is the concept of economic growth in the fore classical period, that is, the period to make preparement for the establishment of the framework of the economic growth theory. The second one is the classical theory of economic growth, that is, the period to establish the framwork of the growth theory. The first stage is about the concept of the representatives of the physiocracy (Francois Quesnay, 1694-1774) and the merchantile system (William Petty, 1623-1687). The second stage is about the concept of the economic growth of the representatives of the classical economic theory, such as Adam Smith(1723 - 1790), David Richard Cantillon (1680-1734), Thomas Robert Malthus(1766-1834), John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)and so on.
Four, the first revolution of the theory of economic growth. This is the stage that the economic growth theory changes from the classic to the new classic. Scholars generally accept the model of Harold and Thomas as the first revolution of the theory of economic growth. Their contributions make the research of the theory of economic growth go on well, that is, using the standardized model that established by the mathematical tool to study and research the economic growth and the variable that influence the economic growth. In this chapter, we will analyze and introduce this model in details and then propose some views that are different from the traditional.
Five, the new classical theory of economic growthThis is also the second revolution of the development of the theory of economic growth. In this part, we will mainly introduce the Solow-Swan model and the Cass-Koopmans-Ransey model in details.
Six, endogenous growth theoryThis theory is also known as new growth theory, which is the third revolution of the development of the theory of economic growth. There are many contents and literatures in this period. Because of the limit of the space and the reading ability of the author, in this part, we will choose some representatives and their contributions to introduce in details on the basis of the comprehensive balance.
Seven, System, other factors and the theory of economic growth Among many models in the new classical theory of economic growth and new growth theory, it is difficult to explain the reality because of the lack of the elements of the system. Therefore, we need to have a further close to the reality. In this part, we will maily introduce the concept and theory of economic growth which bring the system into the model and analytical framework. Of course, we will also take the factors such as geography, natural resources and population and so on into consideration.
Eight, the industrial revolution, the economic crisis, the economic theory and the evolution of growth theory.The occurrence of the major issue of the operation the social economy, the technological revolution and the occurrence of the industrial revolution that creat the opporatunity for the economic theory, which is the same to the theory of economic growth. Looking at the history of the evolution of the economic theory and the theory of economic growth, we can get that they have a close relationship with the important events that happened in the history of human economic development, such as thchnological revolution, industrial revolution and economic crisis. In this part, we will attempt to reveal the association between them.
Nine, positive research and the theory of economic growth Because of the development of econometric and the collation and the collection of the data related to the economic growth in various countries, which makes the analysis of the economic growth of a nation and the comparison of economic growth among various countries convenient. In this part, we will introduce the above content in brief, that is, the analysis of the source of the economic growth, the validated research of some model and theory, the comparison of the growth between thegroups of countries.
Ten, new attempt and the trend of the further development of the economic growth theory
In this part, we will mention almost every element related to the economic growth, that is to say, we will creat a more complicated economic growth model which covers all the elements in the four stages of the development of the economic growth theory. And the framework of this model will degrade to different economic growth model and theory as we condider the defferent elements and use different analysis methods and tools.With the evolution of the human economic growth activities, every element will play different role in different evolved stages. Therefore, we can view economic growth activities and understand the economic growth theory of the economic growth activities from the historical perspective. And our new framework will try to meet the above points.
According to the models, the historical and economic background of the birth of the theory and thought, the different analysis and research methods and the different model assumptions and theoretical logic, we can classify the economic growth theory into the above stages. In this paper, we will use the method of historical description, induction, comparative analysis and so on to describe the development of the economic growth theory.By the classification of the important economist of the econimic growth in the history, we can not only grasp their thoughts well, but also understand the background of the birth of their thoughts, the relation among their thoughts, the innovation and the disadvantages of their thoughts. On this basis, we can only well understand and use the existing economic growth theory, and use them to offer an effective guidance for the operation of our economy. And we try to find the further development trend of our theory to do the growth theoretical innovation once again and tigger another revolution in economic theory.
通过上表我们可以看到：在不同时期，世界的人均国民收入的平均年增长率是差别很大的，而且不同国家的增长率差异也很大，并且经济高速增长现象仅发生在近两个世纪。因为人均国民收入的增长与人们的福利关系密切，所以研究者力图探求经济增长之谜，以更好地理解已经发生的经济增长现象和促进未来的经济增长。
面对各国的经济增长和增长的差异问题，卢卡斯(Robert E．Jr．Lucas，1988)曾经说：“这些问题所包含的人类福利后果是令人震惊的：一个人一旦思考这些问题，他就很难再去思考其他问题。”倾心于经济增长有关问题的迷人魅力，很多研究者把聪明才智和毕生精力倾注到探索经济增长之谜中去。他们不同时期的研究成果也就构成了今天所谓的经济增长理论。由于他们的研究成果所处的时代背景和所用的研究方法不同，也就从客观上形成了不同阶段的经济增长理论。本文就按历史时间顺序把这些研究成果划分为不同发展阶段的经济增长理论。在此需要提及的是，虽然与增长有关的主题很多，比如健康、不平等、教育、污染、可持续、自由等其他很多别的主题，这里不考虑这些问题，尽管这些问题和增长本身一样重要，而只是把精力集中于经济增长理论演变自身，而且更关注于主流的经济增长理论。
本文按照三条主线来评述经济增长理论。一、人类经济活动，特别是经济增长活动的现实发展，是经济增长理论演变的现实逻辑主线；二、经济增长模型的逻辑发展，尤其是生产函数及其所包含投入要素外延和内涵的变化是经济增长理论发展的理论逻辑主线；三、研究方法的发展，不同历史时期的经济增长理论运用了不同的研究方法和研究工具，研究方法和工具的创新是促进经济增长理论发展的方法逻辑主线。可以说，这三条逻辑主线共同构成了经济增长理论发展的脉络。解释人类经济增长运行活动层面的不同，采用生产函数的不同，以及生产函数中变量外延和内涵的不同，所用研究方法和研究工具的不同，就造成了不同阶段的经济增长理论和模型的本质差别。
本文包括以下重要部分：
一、绪论
简单介绍本文写作的意义、研究思路、研究方法、创新和不足之处。
二、经济增长理论的构成要素
经济增长理论要解决的重要问题之一就是通过一些假设和某种研究方法研究国民产出的增长问题。所以有必要把构成增长理论的各个组成要素做一介绍。它们包括：经济增长理论研究的对象；经济增长和经济的发展意义及其区别；资本、劳动、技术、生产函数等概念的定义以及在经济增长模型中的应用；增长的收敛、稳态增长的性质；经济增长理论研究所使用的方法等。
三、经济增长理论研究框架的建立
这个部分介绍古典经济学理论中的经济增长理论以及出现在此前的经济增长思想。可分为两个阶段：一为前古典时期的经济增长思想，即为经济增长理论框架的建立积蓄力量的时期；二为古典经济增长理论，也为经济增长理论研究框架的建立阶段。第一阶段主要是重农主义者(魁奈(Francois Quesnay，1694-1774))、重商主义者(配第(William Petty，1623-1687年)和坎蒂隆(RichardCantillon，1680-1734))等代表人物的经济增长思想；第二阶段主要是古典经济理论代表人物的经济增长思想，有斯密(Adam Smith，1723-1790)、李嘉图(David Ricardo，1772-1823)、马尔萨斯(Thomas Robert Malthus，1766-1834)、穆勒(John Stuart Mill，1806-1873)等。
四、经济增长理论的第一次革命
也是经济增长理论从古典阶段到新古典阶段之间的重要过渡阶段。学者一般公认哈罗德和多马模型(Harrod-Domar Model)是经济增长理论的第一次革命，他们的贡献使经济增长理论的研究走上了一条正确的道路，即用数理工具建立规范的模型对经济增长及其影响经济增长的变量进行分析研究。
五、经济增长理论发展的第二次革命
也是新古典经济增长理论发展阶段，这里主要介绍索洛和斯旺模型(Solow-Swan Model)和拉姆齐、卡斯和库普曼斯模型(Ramsey-Cass-KoopmansModel)。当然也有很多别的模型可以归为新古典经济增长理论，而且以上两个模型也分别被很多研究者扩展和改造，但结论和影响都没能超出这两个模型，所以就没有对其模型进行介绍。
六、经济增长理论发展的第三次革命
也是内生经济增长理论发展阶段，也称为新经济增长理论。其包括很多内容，文献繁多。这里选择了具有代表性的人物及其贡献进行较为详细地介绍。并划分为两个阶段：其一是内生经济增长理论的前期准备阶段，这个阶段的研究者虽然试图把技术、人力资本、知识和其他因素引进生产函数，使经济增长内生化于所创建的模型。不过，由于当时新古典经济增长理论的影响还很强劲，别的经济学分支还没有给经济增长理论研究提供新的分析视角、方法和研究工具，最重要的是决定经济增长理论发展的最根本因素——经济增长现实的发展——还没有使这些需要内生化的因素在经济运行的增长过程中凸现出来，所以这些模型并没有把这些因素真正内生化，而只能被称之为半内生模型，即经济增长率的决定仍然需要外生于模型外的因素。其二是内生经济增长理论的繁荣昌盛阶段，这个时期的模型才能够称之为真正意义上的内生经济增长模型，也就是我们通常所说内生经济增长理论。当然根据内生因素的不同它们又可以分为几个类别。
七、现代研究方法和古典研究方法兼顾的阶段
由于新古典经济增长理论和新增长理论中很多模型中，制度要素的缺失造成理论解释现实的能力不够。所以研究者采用现代研究方法和古典研究方法制度纳入模型和分析框架，形成了制度经济增长理论和演化经济增长理论，当然研究也兼顾了其他诸如地理、自然资源和人口等因素的探讨。
八、工业革命、经济危机、经济学流派和经济增长理论演变
经济运行活动重大事件的发生、技术革命及其引起的工业革命都给经济学流派的产生和演变创造了契机，对于经济增长理论亦是如此。纵观经济学流派和经济增长理论的演变历史，便可看到它们和技术革命、工业革命和经济危机这些人类经济活动发展历史上的重要事件有密切的关系，本部分就尝试揭示它们之间的某些关联之处。
九、经济增长理论的实证研究
由于计量经济学的发展和各国经济增长有关数据的整理和收集，给分析一个国的经济增长和比较各国经济增长提供了方便。本部分就对此简单介绍，主要有经济增长源泉分析，对一些模型和理论的实证检验，对一组国家增长现象的比较研究等。
十、新的尝试和经济增长理论进一步发展的方向
这一部分综合了涉及到经济增长的几乎全部重要要素，创建了一个较为复杂的经济增长模型。而这个模型会随着所考虑要素的不同和分析方法及工具的不同而退化为不同的经济增长模型和理论。纵观人类经济增长活动的进化历史，在不同进化历史阶段，各种要素的作用是不同的。所以可以从历史的角度，来看待经济增长活动和理解表述经济增长活动的经济增长理论。
根据模型、理论和思想产生的历史和经济背景、所用分析和研究方法的不同、模型假设和理论逻辑的不同，我们可以把经济增长理论分为以上几个阶段。在行文中，本文采用历史描述、归纳总结、比较分析等方法对经济增长理论的发展脉络进行描述。从而对这些理论贡献进行很好的掌握，并了解它们产生的背景，它们之间的联系以及创新和局限之处。在此基础之上，才有可能很好地运用现有的经济增长理论，对经济运行进行有效的指导，以及尝试找到理论进一步发展的方向。
The outline of the growth of the world economy can be broadly described in the following table.
From the table, we can easily get that the growth rate of the national per income of the world is quite different from different times. And the economic growth just happens in these two recent centuries. What's more, there is also a great difference in the speed of the per growth among different countries. Because of the importance of the growth of the national income to the welfare of the people, we must explore the mystery of the growth of the economy in order to well understand the process of the growth and to accelate the growth of the economy.
In the face of the problem of the economic growth and the growth differences among different countries, Lucus once said: "It is amazing of the result of the human welfare that is contained in these prolbems: It is very different for him to think other problems once a person begins to consider these problems." Because of the charm of the problem of the economic growth, there are many economists who devote their talents and energies to exploring the mystery of the economic growth. Therefore, the study of the different times consitutes the so-called theory of economic growth of today. Because of the differences of their periods and the research methods, it formed the theory of economic growth of different phases. In this paper, we will classify the theorist of economic growth according to the chronology so as to divide the results of their research into different theory of economic growth. It is noted that although there are many themes relating to the growth, such as health, inequality, education, pollution, sustainable, freedom, and so on, we don't consider these problems. Although these problems are also as important as the growth itself, we only focus on the evolution of growth theory, what's more, we lay more emphasis on the mainstream of economic growth theory.
In this paper, we will review the theory of economic growth from three aspects. First, the economic activities, especially the realistic development of the operation of the growth. Compared with the economic activities, although other human activities will also influence the evolution of the theory of economic growth, it is slender. Second, the logic development of the economic growth models, particually the production function and the changes of the variable containing in them. Third, the development of the research method, there are different research methods and research tools with the theory of economic growth of different historiclal periods. The innovation of the method and the tool promote the development of the theory of economic growth. Therefore, it can be said that these three factors together form the development of the growth theory. The explaination of the different levels of the human growth operation, the distinctnesses of the using of the production function, the differences of the variable in production function and the meanings of different variable and the dissimilar research methods and tools, which form the diverse theory of economic growth. This paper will study the theory of economic growth according to these three main aspects in order to explore the rule of the development of the theory of economic growth and the directiong of its future development. This paper generally includes the following important parts, One, introduction.Briefly introduce the significance, resecrch ideas and research methods, innovation and inadequacy of this paper. Two, the factors of the theory of economic growth.
In this part, we will introduce the various factors which constitute the theory of economic growth in details. One important problem that the theory of economic growth should solve is to research the problem of the national output growth through some assumptions and research method. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the various factors of the growth theory. They are as follows, the significance of the growth of the national wealth and the differences between them, the definition of the capital, labor,thchnology, production function and their applications in the theory of economic growth, the nature of the convergence growth and the steady growth and the method of the research of the growth theory.
Three, the classical theory of economic growth.
In this phase, the framework of the growth theory is established preliminaryly. In this part, we will introduce the theory of economic growth contained in the classical economic theory and the concept of economic growth ahead of it. There are many scholars who put forward the concept of economic growth, but our work is far from complete, so we only choose some inportant and representative concepts to analyze and study and to conclude. We will divide this period into two phases, the first one is the concept of economic growth in the fore classical period, that is, the period to make preparement for the establishment of the framework of the economic growth theory. The second one is the classical theory of economic growth, that is, the period to establish the framwork of the growth theory. The first stage is about the concept of the representatives of the physiocracy (Francois Quesnay, 1694-1774) and the merchantile system (William Petty, 1623-1687). The second stage is about the concept of the economic growth of the representatives of the classical economic theory, such as Adam Smith(1723 - 1790), David Richard Cantillon (1680-1734), Thomas Robert Malthus(1766-1834), John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)and so on.
Four, the first revolution of the theory of economic growth. This is the stage that the economic growth theory changes from the classic to the new classic. Scholars generally accept the model of Harold and Thomas as the first revolution of the theory of economic growth. Their contributions make the research of the theory of economic growth go on well, that is, using the standardized model that established by the mathematical tool to study and research the economic growth and the variable that influence the economic growth. In this chapter, we will analyze and introduce this model in details and then propose some views that are different from the traditional.
Five, the new classical theory of economic growthThis is also the second revolution of the development of the theory of economic growth. In this part, we will mainly introduce the Solow-Swan model and the Cass-Koopmans-Ransey model in details.
Six, endogenous growth theoryThis theory is also known as new growth theory, which is the third revolution of the development of the theory of economic growth. There are many contents and literatures in this period. Because of the limit of the space and the reading ability of the author, in this part, we will choose some representatives and their contributions to introduce in details on the basis of the comprehensive balance.
Seven, System, other factors and the theory of economic growth Among many models in the new classical theory of economic growth and new growth theory, it is difficult to explain the reality because of the lack of the elements of the system. Therefore, we need to have a further close to the reality. In this part, we will maily introduce the concept and theory of economic growth which bring the system into the model and analytical framework. Of course, we will also take the factors such as geography, natural resources and population and so on into consideration.
Eight, the industrial revolution, the economic crisis, the economic theory and the evolution of growth theory.The occurrence of the major issue of the operation the social economy, the technological revolution and the occurrence of the industrial revolution that creat the opporatunity for the economic theory, which is the same to the theory of economic growth. Looking at the history of the evolution of the economic theory and the theory of economic growth, we can get that they have a close relationship with the important events that happened in the history of human economic development, such as thchnological revolution, industrial revolution and economic crisis. In this part, we will attempt to reveal the association between them.
Nine, positive research and the theory of economic growth Because of the development of econometric and the collation and the collection of the data related to the economic growth in various countries, which makes the analysis of the economic growth of a nation and the comparison of economic growth among various countries convenient. In this part, we will introduce the above content in brief, that is, the analysis of the source of the economic growth, the validated research of some model and theory, the comparison of the growth between thegroups of countries.
Ten, new attempt and the trend of the further development of the economic growth theory
In this part, we will mention almost every element related to the economic growth, that is to say, we will creat a more complicated economic growth model which covers all the elements in the four stages of the development of the economic growth theory. And the framework of this model will degrade to different economic growth model and theory as we condider the defferent elements and use different analysis methods and tools.With the evolution of the human economic growth activities, every element will play different role in different evolved stages. Therefore, we can view economic growth activities and understand the economic growth theory of the economic growth activities from the historical perspective. And our new framework will try to meet the above points.
According to the models, the historical and economic background of the birth of the theory and thought, the different analysis and research methods and the different model assumptions and theoretical logic, we can classify the economic growth theory into the above stages. In this paper, we will use the method of historical description, induction, comparative analysis and so on to describe the development of the economic growth theory.By the classification of the important economist of the econimic growth in the history, we can not only grasp their thoughts well, but also understand the background of the birth of their thoughts, the relation among their thoughts, the innovation and the disadvantages of their thoughts. On this basis, we can only well understand and use the existing economic growth theory, and use them to offer an effective guidance for the operation of our economy. And we try to find the further development trend of our theory to do the growth theoretical innovation once again and tigger another revolution in economic theory.
引文
??拉大。
①[美]赫尔普曼(Elhanan Helpman)著，王世华、吴筱译，何帆校，《经济增长的秘密》，中国人民大学出版社，2007年3月第1版，p．1-2。
② Smith, Adam. The Wealth of Nations, Edwin Cannan(ed.), New York: Modern Library, 1937[1776],p.238.
①由于没有查到卡尔多的原文。故转引于：[美]罗伯特·M·索洛 著，冯健等译，杨瑞龙 杨其静 校译，《增长理论——种解释》，北京：中国财政经济出版社，2004年11月第2版，P．23-25。
②Romer, Paul M. 1994."The Origins of Endogenous Growth", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 3-22.
①有关讨论详见：[英]海韦尔·G．琼斯著，《现代经济增长理论导引》，郭家麟 许强 李吟枫 译，郭家麟 萧高励 校，北京：商务印书馆出版，1999年12月第1版，p．208-271。
②[英]海韦尔·G．琼斯 著，《现代经济增长理论导引》，郭家麟 许强 李吟枫 译，郭家麟 萧高励 校，北京：商务印书馆出版，1999年12月第1版，p．208-271。
③Schmookler,J., Innvention and Economic Growth, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1966.p.3.
① Schmookler,J., Innvention and Economic Growth, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.,1966.p.1 .
② Mansfield,E., The Economics of Technological Change. Norton, New York.1968. p.3
③ Mansfield.E., The Economics of Technological Change. Norton, New York.1968. p.3
④ Nordhaus.W.D. Invention, Growth and Welfare: A Theoretical Treatment of Technological Change. MIT Press.??Cambridge，Mass．，1969．
① Salter,W.E.G Productivity and Technical Change 2nd edn(with an addendum by W.B.Reddaway) Cambridge University Press, 1966.p.21
②参见：陈明朗：《经济成长》，台北：华泰文化事业股份有限公司，1999年5月第1版，p．44-47。
①由于没有找到原文，参照了译文：Karl Menger，1945，“A Model of General Equilibrium”，Review of EconomicStudies，Vol．13，p．1-9．
①参照了：[美]小罗伯特·B·埃克伦德(Robert B．Ekelund，Jr．)and罗伯特··F·赫伯特(Robert F．Hebert)著，杨玉生 张凤林译，张凤林校，《经济理论和方法史》，中国人民大学出版社，2001年8月第1版，p．33-50。
①参照了：[美]小罗伯特·B·埃克伦德(Robert B．Ekelund，Jr．)and罗伯特·F·赫伯特(Robert F．Hebert)著，杨玉生 张凤林译，张凤林校，《经济理论和方法史》，中国人民大学出版社，2001年8月第1版，p．66-71。
①[英]亚当·斯密(Adam smith)著，唐日松译，《国富论》，华夏出版社，2005年6月第1版，P238。
① Smith, Adam., The Wealth of Nations, Edwin Cannan(ed), New York: Modern Library, 1937[1776], P.27.
② Schumpeter , Joseph Alois., History of Economic Analysis, New York: Oxford University Press, 1954, P.187.
①Smith, Adam., The Wealth of Nations, Edwin Cannan(ed), New York: Modern Library, 1937[1776], P.5.
①大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P.3页。
①大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P.236-237。
②大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P.3。
①大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P．131。
①马克赫尔吉：《增长理论和李嘉图动态传统》，牛津大学出版社，1982年版，p．7。
①[美]罗伯特·M·索洛著，冯健 等译， 杨瑞龙 杨其静 校译，《增长理论：一种解释》，中国财政经济出版社，2004年11月第2版，p．5。
① Harrod, R.F. 1948- Towards a Dynamic Economics: Some Recent Developments of Economic Theory and their applications to Policy, Macmillan,Lodon, p.79.
①参见：陈明朗，《经济成长》，台北：华泰文化事业股份有限公司，1999年5月第1版，p．12-22。
①参见：威廉·伊斯特利(William Easterly)著，姜世明翻译，《在增长的迷雾中探索》，北京：中信出版社，2005年1月第1版p．26-28。??创造了新古典经济增长模型，而以卡尔多(Nicholas Kaldor，1908-1986)等人为代表的则创建了新剑桥学派经济增长模型。但他们的模型都归为新古典经济增长理论。
①[美]罗伯特·M·索洛 著，冯健等译，杨瑞龙 杨其静 校译，《增长理论-一种解释》，北京：中国财政经济出版社，2004年11月第2版，p．5。
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①这里介绍参照了：陈明朗，《经济成长》，华泰文化事业股份有限公司，1999年5月版，P．155-166。
①主要参考了：[英]安格斯·麦迪逊 著，伍晓鹰、许宪春、叶燕斐、施发启 译，《世界经济千年史》，北京大学出版社，2003年11月第1版，p．1-34。
①[美]E．赫尔普曼(Elhanan Helpman)著，王世华、吴筱 译，何帆 校，《经济增长的秘密》，中国人民大学出版社，2007年3月第1版，p．24。
[美]小罗伯特·卢卡斯 著，罗汉 应洪基 译，《经济发展讲座》，江苏人民出版社，2003年7月第1版，P．22。
[美]G．M．格罗斯曼(G．M．Grossman)、E．赫尔普曼(E．Helpman)著，何帆、牛勇平、唐迪 译，何帆 校，《全球经济中的创新与增长》，中国人民出版社，2003年1月第1版。
[英]安格斯·麦迪逊 著，伍晓鹰、许宪春、叶燕斐、施发启 译，《世界经济千年史》，北京大学出版社，2003年11月第1版。
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Przeworski Adam, Michael E.Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub & Fernando Limongi, 2000, Democracy and Development, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
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①[美]赫尔普曼(Elhanan Helpman)著，王世华、吴筱译，何帆校，《经济增长的秘密》，中国人民大学出版社，2007年3月第1版，p．1-2。
② Smith, Adam. The Wealth of Nations, Edwin Cannan(ed.), New York: Modern Library, 1937[1776],p.238.
①由于没有查到卡尔多的原文。故转引于：[美]罗伯特·M·索洛 著，冯健等译，杨瑞龙 杨其静 校译，《增长理论——种解释》，北京：中国财政经济出版社，2004年11月第2版，P．23-25。
②Romer, Paul M. 1994."The Origins of Endogenous Growth", The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 3-22.
①有关讨论详见：[英]海韦尔·G．琼斯著，《现代经济增长理论导引》，郭家麟 许强 李吟枫 译，郭家麟 萧高励 校，北京：商务印书馆出版，1999年12月第1版，p．208-271。
②[英]海韦尔·G．琼斯 著，《现代经济增长理论导引》，郭家麟 许强 李吟枫 译，郭家麟 萧高励 校，北京：商务印书馆出版，1999年12月第1版，p．208-271。
③Schmookler,J., Innvention and Economic Growth, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1966.p.3.
① Schmookler,J., Innvention and Economic Growth, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass.,1966.p.1 .
② Mansfield,E., The Economics of Technological Change. Norton, New York.1968. p.3
③ Mansfield.E., The Economics of Technological Change. Norton, New York.1968. p.3
④ Nordhaus.W.D. Invention, Growth and Welfare: A Theoretical Treatment of Technological Change. MIT Press.??Cambridge，Mass．，1969．
① Salter,W.E.G Productivity and Technical Change 2nd edn(with an addendum by W.B.Reddaway) Cambridge University Press, 1966.p.21
②参见：陈明朗：《经济成长》，台北：华泰文化事业股份有限公司，1999年5月第1版，p．44-47。
①由于没有找到原文，参照了译文：Karl Menger，1945，“A Model of General Equilibrium”，Review of EconomicStudies，Vol．13，p．1-9．
①参照了：[美]小罗伯特·B·埃克伦德(Robert B．Ekelund，Jr．)and罗伯特··F·赫伯特(Robert F．Hebert)著，杨玉生 张凤林译，张凤林校，《经济理论和方法史》，中国人民大学出版社，2001年8月第1版，p．33-50。
①参照了：[美]小罗伯特·B·埃克伦德(Robert B．Ekelund，Jr．)and罗伯特·F·赫伯特(Robert F．Hebert)著，杨玉生 张凤林译，张凤林校，《经济理论和方法史》，中国人民大学出版社，2001年8月第1版，p．66-71。
①[英]亚当·斯密(Adam smith)著，唐日松译，《国富论》，华夏出版社，2005年6月第1版，P238。
① Smith, Adam., The Wealth of Nations, Edwin Cannan(ed), New York: Modern Library, 1937[1776], P.27.
② Schumpeter , Joseph Alois., History of Economic Analysis, New York: Oxford University Press, 1954, P.187.
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①大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P.3页。
①大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P.236-237。
②大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P.3。
①大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)：《政治经济学及赋税原理》，商务印书馆1976年版，P．131。
①马克赫尔吉：《增长理论和李嘉图动态传统》，牛津大学出版社，1982年版，p．7。
①[美]罗伯特·M·索洛著，冯健 等译， 杨瑞龙 杨其静 校译，《增长理论：一种解释》，中国财政经济出版社，2004年11月第2版，p．5。
① Harrod, R.F. 1948- Towards a Dynamic Economics: Some Recent Developments of Economic Theory and their applications to Policy, Macmillan,Lodon, p.79.
①参见：陈明朗，《经济成长》，台北：华泰文化事业股份有限公司，1999年5月第1版，p．12-22。
①参见：威廉·伊斯特利(William Easterly)著，姜世明翻译，《在增长的迷雾中探索》，北京：中信出版社，2005年1月第1版p．26-28。??创造了新古典经济增长模型，而以卡尔多(Nicholas Kaldor，1908-1986)等人为代表的则创建了新剑桥学派经济增长模型。但他们的模型都归为新古典经济增长理论。
①[美]罗伯特·M·索洛 著，冯健等译，杨瑞龙 杨其静 校译，《增长理论-一种解释》，北京：中国财政经济出版社，2004年11月第2版，p．5。
①Kuznets, Simon, 1966, Modern Economic Growth. New Haven: Yale University Press, p. 10.
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③ Koopmans, T.C. ,1957,Three Essays on the State of Economic Science. McGraw-Hill, New York, p.142.
①Koopmans. T.C. and Hood, W.C. 1953, The estimation of simultaneous economic relationships. In??Econometric Models, ed . Koopmans, T.C. and Hood. W.C., New York: Wiley.p.117-120.
① Christ,C.F., 1966, Econometric Models and Methods. New York: Wiley,p.156.
①这里介绍参照了：陈明朗，《经济成长》，华泰文化事业股份有限公司，1999年5月版，P．155-166。
①主要参考了：[英]安格斯·麦迪逊 著，伍晓鹰、许宪春、叶燕斐、施发启 译，《世界经济千年史》，北京大学出版社，2003年11月第1版，p．1-34。
①[美]E．赫尔普曼(Elhanan Helpman)著，王世华、吴筱 译，何帆 校，《经济增长的秘密》，中国人民大学出版社，2007年3月第1版，p．24。
[美]小罗伯特·卢卡斯 著，罗汉 应洪基 译，《经济发展讲座》，江苏人民出版社，2003年7月第1版，P．22。
[美]G．M．格罗斯曼(G．M．Grossman)、E．赫尔普曼(E．Helpman)著，何帆、牛勇平、唐迪 译，何帆 校，《全球经济中的创新与增长》，中国人民出版社，2003年1月第1版。
[英]安格斯·麦迪逊 著，伍晓鹰、许宪春、叶燕斐、施发启 译，《世界经济千年史》，北京大学出版社，2003年11月第1版。
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[美]E．赫尔普曼(Elhanan Helpman)著，王世华、吴筱 译，何帆 校，《经济增长的秘密》，中国人民大学出版社，2007年3月第1版。
[美]小罗伯特·B·埃克伦德(Robert B．Ekelund，Jr．)，罗伯特·F·赫伯特(RobertF．Hebert)著，杨玉生 张凤林译，张凤林校，《经济理论和方法史》，中国人民大学出版社，2001年8月第1版。
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[美]罗伯特·M·索洛著，冯健 等译， 杨瑞龙 杨其静 校译， 《增长理论：一种解释》，北京：中国财政经济出版社，2004年11月第2版。
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游宪生，《经济增长研究》，上海：立信会计出版社，2000年3月第1版。
[美]D．W．乔根森(Dale W．Jorgenson)著，李京文等译，《生产率：经济增长的国际比较》，中国发展出版社，2002年第1版。
[英]海韦尔·G．琼斯著，《现代经济增长理论导引》，郭家麟 许强 李吟枫 译，郭家麟 萧高励 校，北京：商务印书馆出版，1999年12月第1版。
[美]查尔斯．I．琼斯著，舒元 等译校，《经济增长理论导论》，北京：北京大学出版社，2002年10月第1版。
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[美]罗伯特 J．巴罗 哈维尔·萨拉伊马丁 著，何晖 刘明兴 译，《经济增长》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，2000年1月第1版。
[美]哈尔·瓦里安著，周洪，李勇等译，姚子范校，《微观经济学》，北京：经济科学出版社出版，1997年4月第1版。
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[美]戴维·罗默 著，苏剑 罗涛 译，《高级宏观经济学》，北京：商务印书馆，1999年9月第1版。
[英]斯密(Adam smith)著，唐日松译，《国富论》，北京：华夏出版社，2005年6月第1版。
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[德国]马克斯．韦伯著，于晓 陈维纲 译，《新教伦理与资本主义精神》，上海：三联书店，1987年版。
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[美]里亚·格林菲尔德著，张京生、刘新义译，《资本主义精神：民族主义与经济增长》，上海：上海人民出版社，2004年2月第1版。
[英]大卫·李嘉图 著，周洁 译， 《政治经济学及赋税原理》，北京：华夏出版社，2005年9月第1版。
[英]阿弗里德·马歇尔 著，廉运杰 译， 《经济学原理》，北京：华夏出版社，2005年1月第1版。
[美]威廉·鲍莫尔 著，郭梅军 唐宇 彭静 李青 译，《自由市场创新机器——资本主义的增长奇迹》，北京：中信出版社，2004年1月第1版。
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[英]约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 著，宋韵声 译，《就业、利息和货币通论》，北京：华夏出版社，2005年1月第1版。
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