我国新农村住宅建设投融资模式及保障机制研究
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摘要
党的十七大报告指出：“统筹城乡发展,推进社会主义新农村建设,解决好农业、农村、农民问题,事关全面建设小康社会大局,必须始终作为党和政府各项工作的重中之重”。一个国家农村住宅建设的总体水平在很大程度上反映了这个国家广大农村地区的生产发展状况、农民生活富裕程度、乡风文明及村容村貌,农村住宅的总体建设是我国社会主义新农村建设的重要环节,是落实中央精神的具体体现,而在新农村住宅建设的各项环节中,投融资是极其重要的一环,它直接关系到住宅建设工作能否顺利进行。
纵观我国农村住宅建设投融资领域的发展现状,投融资方面仍然存在诸如资金供需矛盾突出、信贷资金严重不足、农户贷款难融资难、融资渠道单一等问题,这些问题严重制约着我国新农村住宅建设工作的顺利开展。而另一方面,我国城市住宅建设金融领域的发展日渐成熟,理论及实践方面都取得了长远的发展,农村住宅建设投融资领域与城市住宅金融领域尚存较大差距。
基于上述背景,本文依托国家科技支撑重大项目“农村住宅规划建设技术标准框架研究”(项目编号：2008BAJ08B16),对我国农村住宅建设投融资现状进行了详细研究,总结出我国新农村住宅建设投融资发展的制约因素为：政策金融支持力度不足、商业金融趋利向城市转移、合作金融存在制度缺陷。针对这些制约因素,本文认为农村金融体系创新是解决目前我国新农村住宅建设资金供需矛盾的重要突破口。
本文通过运用系统动力学因果回路图及存量流量图模型、聚类分析、模糊综合评价等一系列方法,构建了新农村住宅建设投融资需求的定量预测模型、新农村住宅建设的5种投融资模式、6类投融资保障机制,以及投融资绩效评价模型,并以天津华明镇“宅基地换房”模式为实例进行投融资绩效评价模型的实证检验,并从多个角度对我国新农村住宅建设投融资领域提出了政策建议。论文主要研究结论如下：
(1)找出了影响各投融资主体投融资行为的最直接影响因素。主要包括：政策及财政支持力度、地方官员政绩考核指标、住宅建设项目预期、借款人还款能力及还款意愿、资金的机会成本及坏账风险、社会资金进入程度、融资成本及融资难度、建房及购房成本等。
(2)提出了解决我国农村住宅建设投融资问题的关键点。主要包括：改革地方政府业绩考核体系,将住宅建设等民生发展评价指标纳入考核体系；加强财政监管,杜绝寻租现象发生；加快农户信用体系建设；盘活农村土地资源,实现资产的资本化运作；广泛吸引社会资金,探索多元化融资模式。
(3)绘制了投融资需求预测的系统流图,通过计算供需差额判断资金的供需状况。本文运用Vensim PLE软件绘制了投融资需求预测的系统流图,得出供需差额计算公式为(资金需求预测值-实际资金供给),供需差额为正值,说明资金需求未能得到充分满足,存在资金供需矛盾；供需差额为零,或者为负值,说明资金需求得到较好地满足,投融资工作进展顺利。
(4)根据融资主体及融资渠道的不同构建了新农村住宅建设的5种投融资模式。本文认为,我国广大农村地区经济发展水平差异较大,不可能用一种投融资模式解决所有问题,因此本文根据融资主体、融资渠道及资金来源等的不同,构建了资金自筹、地方政府投融资平台、房地产企业主导、土地资源融资、政策金融与合作金融互补等5种投融资模式。
(5)对农村地区进行聚类分析,并对每组地区适合的投融资主导模式进行了适宜性排序。最后结论为：上海一组最适宜资金自筹模式,辽宁一组最适宜地方政府投融资平台模式,四川一组最适宜土地资源融资模式,西藏一组最适宜政策金融与合作金融互补模式。
(6)构建了新农村住宅建设的6类投融资保障机制。本文认为应从财政引导机制、金融创新机制、法律保障机制、农户信用机制、风险共担机制及风险补偿机制等6方面构建新农村住宅建设的投融资保障机制,以保障资金需求方顺利筹集住宅建设所需资金,降低金融机构等资金供给方的投资风险。
(7)从财政扶持、农村金融体系创新等方面提出了10条政策性建议。本文认为,从广义上讲,政府的政策引导也是一种融资方式,它能够起到“四两拨千斤”的作用,引导社会各类资金进入新农村住宅建设领域,因此本文着重从财政扶持、农村金融体系创新、信用环境建设、农村金融法律保障等方面提出了具体的政策性建议。
本文主要创新点包括：一是运用系统动力学因果回路图模型对我国新农村住宅建设各主体投融资行为进行了系统分析,为涉及多个主体的投融资决策提供了一种创新性的分析方法；二是选取新建住宅面积等5个指标,运用聚类分析方法对我国农村地区进行了战略分组；三是运用系统动力学存量流量图的思想,构建了新农村住宅建设的投融资需求定量预测模型；四是基于我国社会主义发展现阶段的国情,构建了新农村住宅建设的投融资模式及保障机制；五是基于DHGF综合评价方法,构建了新农村住宅建设的投融资绩效评价模型,并进行了实证检验。
It has been pointed out in the report of the17th China National Congress that the most important task of the Party and Chinese government is to coordinate urban and rural development, improve the building of new socialist rural areas and deal with the relationships of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, which counts for the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. To a great extent, the overall level of a nation's rural residence construction reflects its productive developing situation in rural areas, the living standard and quality of farmers and rural civilization and village views. The construction of rural residence is the vital link to the building of Chinese socialism new rural areas as well as the specific representation of conducting as the Party's spirits. More accurately, investment and financing play an extremely significant role on all parts of the new rural residence construction, concerning whether the construction can be carried out directly.
In terms of the current situation in the realm of Chinese rural residence construction, problems, such as obvious conflicts between finance supply and demand, severe lack of capital credit and loan, difficulties in financing and loan for farmers and the lack of ways to financing, still exist in these investment and financing areas, which restrict the building of Chinese rural residence construction. On the other hand, the development of Chinese urban residence is mature and has achieved great long-term progress, however, the gap between urban and rural residence construction is still obvious.
Based on the background above, this paper relies on a National Science and Technology supported key project:Research on technological standard frame of rural residence planning and construction(project number:2008BAJ08B16),to have deep and detailed insights into Chinese rural residence construction and current situation of investment and financing, identify the factors restrict the investment and financing of Chinese new rural residence construction, which includes lack of political financing supports, commercial financing profits transfer from rural to urban areas and institutional flaws in financing cooperation. On account of these restricts, this paper holds a view that rural financing system innovation is the significant breakthrough to solve the financing conflict between supply and demand in current Chinese new rural residence construction.
This paper applies system dynamics causal loop diagrams, stock and flow chart model, Clustering analysis of multiply statistic method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in order to build a forecast model of investment and financing supply and demand,5patterns for new rural residence construction investment and financing as well as an assessment model for investment and financing effect. In addition, an example of "home-site for flat" pattern in HuaMing town (TianJin) is taken to have investment and financing performance evaluation. Finally, political recommendations for investment and financing in Chinese rural residence construction are made from different viewpoints. Main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Identify the most direct impact that affect investment and financing behavior. Include:policies and financial support, local officer performance indicators, expectations for residence construction program, borrowers'repayment capacities and willingness, finance opportunity costs and bad debts risks, social capital participation, financing costs and difficulties, building and purchasing costs for residence.
(2) Propose the key factors to solve the rural residential construction investment and financing problems. Include:change the current assess situation that local government performance takes economic development as the single indicator, take local livelihood development and environment protects into the assess system; enhance financing supervision, eradicate rent-seeking of local officials; improve farmer credit system; vitalize rural land resources, realize capitalization operation; lead social capitals into the realm of new rural residence construction financing, explore multiply financing pattern.
(3) Draw the investment and financing demand forecast system flow diagram of rural residential construction, evaluate the difference between supply and demand. Use vensim PLE software to draw the investment and financing demand forecast system flow diagram, the difference between supply and demand is positive, indicating that demand for funds has not been fully met.
(4) Make a construction of investment and financing mode depending on financing subject and channels. The economic development level of China's vast rural areas is quite different, it is impossible to use a financing model to solve all problems, according to differences in financing bodies, Chinese rural residence construction financing patterns are divided into5types:self-financing pattern, local government financing platform pattern, real estate firm dominating pattern and land resource financing pattern, policy and cooperation finance complementary pattern.
(5) Make a cluster analysis of rural areas, and find the most suitable financing mode of each group. Shanghai group's most suitable mode is self-financing model, Liaoning group's most suitable mode is local government financing platform, Sichuan group's most suitable mode is land resources financing mode, Xizang group's most suitable mode is policy and cooperation finance complementary pattern.
(6) Establishing finance protection mechanism which includes fiscal finance leading mechanism, finance innovation mechanism, law protection mechanism, farmer credit mechanism, risk sharing mechanism and risk compensation mechanism. In order to successfully guarantee the demanders to raise capital for rural residence construction and lower the investment risk of suppliers such as finance institutions.
(7) Proposes10policy recommendations in terms of financial support, the rural financial system innovation. This paper argues that, broadly speaking, the government's policy guidance is also a way of financing, it can guide the various types of capital into the construction of new rural residential areas, therefore, this paper put forward specific policy recommendations from financial support, rural financial system innovative, the credit environment construction, etc.
Innovations in this paper include:first, make a system analysis of new rural housing construction investment and financing behavior by using causal loop diagram of system dynamics model, provide an innovative analysis method for investment and financing decision-making among multiple body; second, select five indicators include new residential area and use the cluster analysis method to make a strategic grouping on China's vast rural areas; third, make a construction of quantitative forecast model for investment and financing supply and demand in new rural residence construction by using system dynamics stock and flow charts model; fourth, based on national conditions of China's socialist development stage, build the rural housing construction investment and financing mode and safeguard mechanism; fifth, based on DHGF comprehensive evaluation method, build a performance evaluation model of new rural housing construction and take an empirical test.
纵观我国农村住宅建设投融资领域的发展现状,投融资方面仍然存在诸如资金供需矛盾突出、信贷资金严重不足、农户贷款难融资难、融资渠道单一等问题,这些问题严重制约着我国新农村住宅建设工作的顺利开展。而另一方面,我国城市住宅建设金融领域的发展日渐成熟,理论及实践方面都取得了长远的发展,农村住宅建设投融资领域与城市住宅金融领域尚存较大差距。
基于上述背景,本文依托国家科技支撑重大项目“农村住宅规划建设技术标准框架研究”(项目编号：2008BAJ08B16),对我国农村住宅建设投融资现状进行了详细研究,总结出我国新农村住宅建设投融资发展的制约因素为：政策金融支持力度不足、商业金融趋利向城市转移、合作金融存在制度缺陷。针对这些制约因素,本文认为农村金融体系创新是解决目前我国新农村住宅建设资金供需矛盾的重要突破口。
本文通过运用系统动力学因果回路图及存量流量图模型、聚类分析、模糊综合评价等一系列方法,构建了新农村住宅建设投融资需求的定量预测模型、新农村住宅建设的5种投融资模式、6类投融资保障机制,以及投融资绩效评价模型,并以天津华明镇“宅基地换房”模式为实例进行投融资绩效评价模型的实证检验,并从多个角度对我国新农村住宅建设投融资领域提出了政策建议。论文主要研究结论如下：
(1)找出了影响各投融资主体投融资行为的最直接影响因素。主要包括：政策及财政支持力度、地方官员政绩考核指标、住宅建设项目预期、借款人还款能力及还款意愿、资金的机会成本及坏账风险、社会资金进入程度、融资成本及融资难度、建房及购房成本等。
(2)提出了解决我国农村住宅建设投融资问题的关键点。主要包括：改革地方政府业绩考核体系,将住宅建设等民生发展评价指标纳入考核体系；加强财政监管,杜绝寻租现象发生；加快农户信用体系建设；盘活农村土地资源,实现资产的资本化运作；广泛吸引社会资金,探索多元化融资模式。
(3)绘制了投融资需求预测的系统流图,通过计算供需差额判断资金的供需状况。本文运用Vensim PLE软件绘制了投融资需求预测的系统流图,得出供需差额计算公式为(资金需求预测值-实际资金供给),供需差额为正值,说明资金需求未能得到充分满足,存在资金供需矛盾；供需差额为零,或者为负值,说明资金需求得到较好地满足,投融资工作进展顺利。
(4)根据融资主体及融资渠道的不同构建了新农村住宅建设的5种投融资模式。本文认为,我国广大农村地区经济发展水平差异较大,不可能用一种投融资模式解决所有问题,因此本文根据融资主体、融资渠道及资金来源等的不同,构建了资金自筹、地方政府投融资平台、房地产企业主导、土地资源融资、政策金融与合作金融互补等5种投融资模式。
(5)对农村地区进行聚类分析,并对每组地区适合的投融资主导模式进行了适宜性排序。最后结论为：上海一组最适宜资金自筹模式,辽宁一组最适宜地方政府投融资平台模式,四川一组最适宜土地资源融资模式,西藏一组最适宜政策金融与合作金融互补模式。
(6)构建了新农村住宅建设的6类投融资保障机制。本文认为应从财政引导机制、金融创新机制、法律保障机制、农户信用机制、风险共担机制及风险补偿机制等6方面构建新农村住宅建设的投融资保障机制,以保障资金需求方顺利筹集住宅建设所需资金,降低金融机构等资金供给方的投资风险。
(7)从财政扶持、农村金融体系创新等方面提出了10条政策性建议。本文认为,从广义上讲,政府的政策引导也是一种融资方式,它能够起到“四两拨千斤”的作用,引导社会各类资金进入新农村住宅建设领域,因此本文着重从财政扶持、农村金融体系创新、信用环境建设、农村金融法律保障等方面提出了具体的政策性建议。
本文主要创新点包括：一是运用系统动力学因果回路图模型对我国新农村住宅建设各主体投融资行为进行了系统分析,为涉及多个主体的投融资决策提供了一种创新性的分析方法；二是选取新建住宅面积等5个指标,运用聚类分析方法对我国农村地区进行了战略分组；三是运用系统动力学存量流量图的思想,构建了新农村住宅建设的投融资需求定量预测模型；四是基于我国社会主义发展现阶段的国情,构建了新农村住宅建设的投融资模式及保障机制；五是基于DHGF综合评价方法,构建了新农村住宅建设的投融资绩效评价模型,并进行了实证检验。
It has been pointed out in the report of the17th China National Congress that the most important task of the Party and Chinese government is to coordinate urban and rural development, improve the building of new socialist rural areas and deal with the relationships of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, which counts for the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. To a great extent, the overall level of a nation's rural residence construction reflects its productive developing situation in rural areas, the living standard and quality of farmers and rural civilization and village views. The construction of rural residence is the vital link to the building of Chinese socialism new rural areas as well as the specific representation of conducting as the Party's spirits. More accurately, investment and financing play an extremely significant role on all parts of the new rural residence construction, concerning whether the construction can be carried out directly.
In terms of the current situation in the realm of Chinese rural residence construction, problems, such as obvious conflicts between finance supply and demand, severe lack of capital credit and loan, difficulties in financing and loan for farmers and the lack of ways to financing, still exist in these investment and financing areas, which restrict the building of Chinese rural residence construction. On the other hand, the development of Chinese urban residence is mature and has achieved great long-term progress, however, the gap between urban and rural residence construction is still obvious.
Based on the background above, this paper relies on a National Science and Technology supported key project:Research on technological standard frame of rural residence planning and construction(project number:2008BAJ08B16),to have deep and detailed insights into Chinese rural residence construction and current situation of investment and financing, identify the factors restrict the investment and financing of Chinese new rural residence construction, which includes lack of political financing supports, commercial financing profits transfer from rural to urban areas and institutional flaws in financing cooperation. On account of these restricts, this paper holds a view that rural financing system innovation is the significant breakthrough to solve the financing conflict between supply and demand in current Chinese new rural residence construction.
This paper applies system dynamics causal loop diagrams, stock and flow chart model, Clustering analysis of multiply statistic method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in order to build a forecast model of investment and financing supply and demand,5patterns for new rural residence construction investment and financing as well as an assessment model for investment and financing effect. In addition, an example of "home-site for flat" pattern in HuaMing town (TianJin) is taken to have investment and financing performance evaluation. Finally, political recommendations for investment and financing in Chinese rural residence construction are made from different viewpoints. Main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Identify the most direct impact that affect investment and financing behavior. Include:policies and financial support, local officer performance indicators, expectations for residence construction program, borrowers'repayment capacities and willingness, finance opportunity costs and bad debts risks, social capital participation, financing costs and difficulties, building and purchasing costs for residence.
(2) Propose the key factors to solve the rural residential construction investment and financing problems. Include:change the current assess situation that local government performance takes economic development as the single indicator, take local livelihood development and environment protects into the assess system; enhance financing supervision, eradicate rent-seeking of local officials; improve farmer credit system; vitalize rural land resources, realize capitalization operation; lead social capitals into the realm of new rural residence construction financing, explore multiply financing pattern.
(3) Draw the investment and financing demand forecast system flow diagram of rural residential construction, evaluate the difference between supply and demand. Use vensim PLE software to draw the investment and financing demand forecast system flow diagram, the difference between supply and demand is positive, indicating that demand for funds has not been fully met.
(4) Make a construction of investment and financing mode depending on financing subject and channels. The economic development level of China's vast rural areas is quite different, it is impossible to use a financing model to solve all problems, according to differences in financing bodies, Chinese rural residence construction financing patterns are divided into5types:self-financing pattern, local government financing platform pattern, real estate firm dominating pattern and land resource financing pattern, policy and cooperation finance complementary pattern.
(5) Make a cluster analysis of rural areas, and find the most suitable financing mode of each group. Shanghai group's most suitable mode is self-financing model, Liaoning group's most suitable mode is local government financing platform, Sichuan group's most suitable mode is land resources financing mode, Xizang group's most suitable mode is policy and cooperation finance complementary pattern.
(6) Establishing finance protection mechanism which includes fiscal finance leading mechanism, finance innovation mechanism, law protection mechanism, farmer credit mechanism, risk sharing mechanism and risk compensation mechanism. In order to successfully guarantee the demanders to raise capital for rural residence construction and lower the investment risk of suppliers such as finance institutions.
(7) Proposes10policy recommendations in terms of financial support, the rural financial system innovation. This paper argues that, broadly speaking, the government's policy guidance is also a way of financing, it can guide the various types of capital into the construction of new rural residential areas, therefore, this paper put forward specific policy recommendations from financial support, rural financial system innovative, the credit environment construction, etc.
Innovations in this paper include:first, make a system analysis of new rural housing construction investment and financing behavior by using causal loop diagram of system dynamics model, provide an innovative analysis method for investment and financing decision-making among multiple body; second, select five indicators include new residential area and use the cluster analysis method to make a strategic grouping on China's vast rural areas; third, make a construction of quantitative forecast model for investment and financing supply and demand in new rural residence construction by using system dynamics stock and flow charts model; fourth, based on national conditions of China's socialist development stage, build the rural housing construction investment and financing mode and safeguard mechanism; fifth, based on DHGF comprehensive evaluation method, build a performance evaluation model of new rural housing construction and take an empirical test.
引文
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