经济结构与区域增长关系研究
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摘要
改革和开放的三十五年以来，中国经济创造了年均约10%的高速增长“奇迹”，也使得“中国问题”就成为一个充满魅力的主题，在泛泛的讲述中或者在最为深刻的阐释中，“中国特色”一词有了其重要的经济内涵。中国自改革和开放以来三十余年的“增长奇迹”以及2008年全球金融危机之后迅速的经济复苏成为了改变经济增长理论研究的重要样本，增长分析思路在实践中的不断修正逐渐凸显了结构性因素的作用：中国区域发展伴随着强烈的结构演化，城市化、工业化和空间差序格局的不断形成和固化过程成为中国区域增长的现实描述，是城市与农村交织在一起的内生过程，增长、波动或发展的实质是经济结构演变，这必然要求我们对中国区域经济的结构性加以强调。在当下，这也必将为“结构调整”的学术研究基础提供一些经验上的证据支撑。
本文首先对经济增长理论、结构主义思路和经济结构与经济增长关系的相关研究进行了梳理和概括性介绍，明晰以结构视角解释中国区域经济增长的研究基础和基本思路。在此基础上，通过求异法计量分析思路对中国区域经济增长过程中蕴含的结构性特点进行说明，并对经济结构与区域增长的关联机理进行解释，从而明确后文实证检验内容需要达成的任务和实证检验的实现途径。特别值得强调的是，因层级治理过程中地区块状发展导致经济活动具有以行政区划为边界（如省份）的空间尺度性，大国特质下更突显了区域经济和经济结构的空间分布差异，区域间相对独立又有空间联系的发展秩序要求我们对中国区域经济增长的研究应对以省市为边界的空间尺度效应加以识别。
为明晰高增长过程中中国区域经济结构与地区增长的复杂关系，理清中国区域发展的空间实现逻辑，本文以增长解析和空间尺度切入，对区域经济结构的空间增长效应进行了识别和解释，以描述结构与增长的关系。具体操作中，本文结合空间面板计量技术中对空间效应的划分，基于中国省份长区间区域经济数据从经济结构的空间溢出效应、空间异质效应两个视角展开了实证检验和分析，并进一步在此研究基础上，提出了将时间概念引入到本文经济结构与区域增长关系的必要性，动态识别中国区域增长中的结构效应表现。与既有文献相比，本文创新工作主要体现在以下几个方面：
其一，针对以往研究主要以单一的产业结构限定经济结构内涵并且经济分析多以“孤岛”看待不同经济单位的做法，本文从区域空间尺度出发将经济结构重新归纳为包含区域间和区域内两个层面的多要素结构以反映不同的机理途径，以空间溢出效应将地区间的空间关联纳入经济增长分析，描述中国区域经济的空间传导路径和作用机制，从而为区域“块块”增长过程的实现并非孤立的系统提供确凿的经验证据。其中，强调对中国区域经济增长过程的解析必然不能避开或忽略空间尺度的影响，中国区域分治格局则指导我们将这一空间尺度锚定在省份边界上，区域空间尺度的切入成为本研究区别于其他文献的重要特点之一。空间权重矩阵的引入和空间面板计量经济学的应用则成为本研究的实现工具。
其二，指出经济结构作用于区域增长的效果可能存在地区差异并对其加以验证，描述中国区域经济结构作用的演化过程。空间关联强调地区间的经济关联，但异质性反映差异，不仅仅是量上的差异而且是作用效果的差异，本文以空间变系数方法对经济结构与增长关系的空间局部效应进行了识别，证实了这种异质性的存在，其主旨在于指出经济结构对增长的影响不仅来自于要素配置水平上的差异性，而且与要素结构与地区的匹配有关，前者以结构差异和变动解释增长、后者则认为经济结构在不同的地域空间上的作用表现也有差异，两者共同作用促成中国区域增长格局的形成和异质表现。
其三，在前述研究基础上进一步引入经济时间概念，以静态分析和动态分析相结合的方式对结构与增长的关系进行再次的识别和讨论，着重强调结构效应的长期和短期差异性。此部分的经济分析以纳入因变量时间滞后项和空间加权因变量时间滞后项的空间动态面板数据模型作为检验基础，重点研究结构效应的实际变化，对系统化的经济运行机制加以验证并全面且准确地刻画结构与增长关系的动态过程。研究表明，经济结构与区域增长关系不仅存在空间维度的关联性，在时间维度上同样所有体现，其学术意义则在于指明对中国区域经济增长进行研究时，应纳入发展过程中来源于动态系统的空间和时间交互性，注重区别结构因素的长期和短期效应表达。
During the thirty-five years since the reform and open of China, we have get a“growth miracle” with an average of about10%of high-speed growth rate, and thusmake the “Chinese issue” becoming a charming theme, the words "Chinesecharacteristics" therefore obtained its important economic connotation in the discussions.The long period high-speed growth and the rapid recovery after the2008globalfinancial crisis made China became an important sample changing the way of growththeory researches, in this revised analytical research progress, the effect of structuralfactors gradually reflect: there is a sharply structural evolution of regional developmentin China, urbanization, industrialization and the formation and curing process of spatialdifference pattern become the realistic description of China's regional growth, it’s anendogenous process of urban and rural interaction, so the essence of economicfluctuations is the economic structure evolution, this requires the structural effectsshould been emphasized in China’s regional economic. In the present, this also willcertainly provide some academic and empirical evidence for the research foundation of"structural adjustment".
This paper firstly summarized and reviewed the economic growth theory, thetheoretical basis for economic structure and researches on the relationship betweeneconomic structure and growth, clearing the foundation and the basic way of explainingChina’s regional economic growth via economic structures, based on which this papersummarized the structural characteristics of China growth through the method ofdifference in econometrics. In this way, association mechanisms of economic structuresand regional growth are discussed, and the empirical task and the way of econometricsrealization will be spread in later content thus been cleared. In particular, what need tobe emphasized is that the “block-like” regional development under hierarchygovernance has lead to the province space scale effect, with the administrative divisionsas the boundary (e.g., province), at the same time, power quality also makes thedistribution difference of regional economic and structures obvious. In view of this, thespatial scale effects should be recognized in the research of the regional economicgrowth in China.
In order to identify the complex relations between regional economic structure andgrowth in the high-speed growth and clarify China's regional development spatial realization logic, this paper, through growth analysis and spatial scale, identified andexplained the spatial effects of regional structures, describing the relationship betweenstructures and growth. In detail, considering the category of spatial effects, based onlong period provincial data of China, this paper empirically tested and analyzed thespatial spillover effect and the spatial heterogeneity effect of regional economicstructures. Furthermore, based on its conclusion, this paper pointed out that it’snecessary to include the concept of time into the research of relationship betweenstructure and regional growth, dynamically identifying structure effects of China'sregional growth performance. Compared with existing literatures, the innovationsmainly embodied in the following aspects:
Firstly, in view of previous researches mainly limit in single industrial structureand economic analysis always take different units as “detached island”, this paperembarks from regional spatial scale summarize economic structures as an multipleconcept including between-region and in-region structures, reflecting differentmechanisms of effects, spatially the way of spatial effects acting; in this way, wedescribes the spatial transmission path and the action mechanism of China's regionaleconomic, indicating that the realization of regional growth is not an isolated system.Therein, the interpretation of China's regional economic growth process inevitablycannot avoid or ignore the influence of spatial scale, and the regional partition patternhas guiding us that researches should anchor this spatial scale on provincial border,spatial scale become one of the most important difference from other literatures, withspatial matrix and spatial panel model as the implementation tools of our research.
Secondly, it points out that the effects of the economic structures on the regionalgrowth may possibly verified across China’s regions, and based on this thought,empirical evidence is provided to describe the evolution of regional economicstructures’ growth effect. Spatial dependence points to the correlation between regions,while the spatial heterogeneity refers to difference on effect, not only on quantitativevalue but also on the acting effect, so based on a spatial variable coefficient method thispaper identified the local spatial effect of structural variables on regional growth,finding that spatial heterogeneity dose exist. The main purpose of this part is to pointout that the influence of structural variables on growth not only come from differenceson configuration level but also is associated with the matching of structures and regions,the former explains growth using different values, while the later using differentperformance across regions, and together they contribute to the formation of regional growth distribution in China.
Thirdly, based on previous studies, concept of economic time is introduced into ourresearch to identify and discuss about the relationship of structure and growth onceagain by combining static and dynamic analysis together, emphasizing the differencesbetween long-term and short-term structural growth effects. In this part, we use dynamicspatial panel data model including lagged dependent variable and lagged spaceweighted dependent variable to study the actual changes of structural effects, surveyingthe systematic and comprehensive economic operational mechanism and portraying thedynamic process of relationship between structures and growth. Results show that,structures and growth not only related in spatial dimensions, but also in time dimensions,and implication lies in that spatial and temporal interactions should be introduced intostudies on Chinese growth and should focus on the distinguishing of structural factor’slong-term and short-term spatial effects.
本文首先对经济增长理论、结构主义思路和经济结构与经济增长关系的相关研究进行了梳理和概括性介绍，明晰以结构视角解释中国区域经济增长的研究基础和基本思路。在此基础上，通过求异法计量分析思路对中国区域经济增长过程中蕴含的结构性特点进行说明，并对经济结构与区域增长的关联机理进行解释，从而明确后文实证检验内容需要达成的任务和实证检验的实现途径。特别值得强调的是，因层级治理过程中地区块状发展导致经济活动具有以行政区划为边界（如省份）的空间尺度性，大国特质下更突显了区域经济和经济结构的空间分布差异，区域间相对独立又有空间联系的发展秩序要求我们对中国区域经济增长的研究应对以省市为边界的空间尺度效应加以识别。
为明晰高增长过程中中国区域经济结构与地区增长的复杂关系，理清中国区域发展的空间实现逻辑，本文以增长解析和空间尺度切入，对区域经济结构的空间增长效应进行了识别和解释，以描述结构与增长的关系。具体操作中，本文结合空间面板计量技术中对空间效应的划分，基于中国省份长区间区域经济数据从经济结构的空间溢出效应、空间异质效应两个视角展开了实证检验和分析，并进一步在此研究基础上，提出了将时间概念引入到本文经济结构与区域增长关系的必要性，动态识别中国区域增长中的结构效应表现。与既有文献相比，本文创新工作主要体现在以下几个方面：
其一，针对以往研究主要以单一的产业结构限定经济结构内涵并且经济分析多以“孤岛”看待不同经济单位的做法，本文从区域空间尺度出发将经济结构重新归纳为包含区域间和区域内两个层面的多要素结构以反映不同的机理途径，以空间溢出效应将地区间的空间关联纳入经济增长分析，描述中国区域经济的空间传导路径和作用机制，从而为区域“块块”增长过程的实现并非孤立的系统提供确凿的经验证据。其中，强调对中国区域经济增长过程的解析必然不能避开或忽略空间尺度的影响，中国区域分治格局则指导我们将这一空间尺度锚定在省份边界上，区域空间尺度的切入成为本研究区别于其他文献的重要特点之一。空间权重矩阵的引入和空间面板计量经济学的应用则成为本研究的实现工具。
其二，指出经济结构作用于区域增长的效果可能存在地区差异并对其加以验证，描述中国区域经济结构作用的演化过程。空间关联强调地区间的经济关联，但异质性反映差异，不仅仅是量上的差异而且是作用效果的差异，本文以空间变系数方法对经济结构与增长关系的空间局部效应进行了识别，证实了这种异质性的存在，其主旨在于指出经济结构对增长的影响不仅来自于要素配置水平上的差异性，而且与要素结构与地区的匹配有关，前者以结构差异和变动解释增长、后者则认为经济结构在不同的地域空间上的作用表现也有差异，两者共同作用促成中国区域增长格局的形成和异质表现。
其三，在前述研究基础上进一步引入经济时间概念，以静态分析和动态分析相结合的方式对结构与增长的关系进行再次的识别和讨论，着重强调结构效应的长期和短期差异性。此部分的经济分析以纳入因变量时间滞后项和空间加权因变量时间滞后项的空间动态面板数据模型作为检验基础，重点研究结构效应的实际变化，对系统化的经济运行机制加以验证并全面且准确地刻画结构与增长关系的动态过程。研究表明，经济结构与区域增长关系不仅存在空间维度的关联性，在时间维度上同样所有体现，其学术意义则在于指明对中国区域经济增长进行研究时，应纳入发展过程中来源于动态系统的空间和时间交互性，注重区别结构因素的长期和短期效应表达。
During the thirty-five years since the reform and open of China, we have get a“growth miracle” with an average of about10%of high-speed growth rate, and thusmake the “Chinese issue” becoming a charming theme, the words "Chinesecharacteristics" therefore obtained its important economic connotation in the discussions.The long period high-speed growth and the rapid recovery after the2008globalfinancial crisis made China became an important sample changing the way of growththeory researches, in this revised analytical research progress, the effect of structuralfactors gradually reflect: there is a sharply structural evolution of regional developmentin China, urbanization, industrialization and the formation and curing process of spatialdifference pattern become the realistic description of China's regional growth, it’s anendogenous process of urban and rural interaction, so the essence of economicfluctuations is the economic structure evolution, this requires the structural effectsshould been emphasized in China’s regional economic. In the present, this also willcertainly provide some academic and empirical evidence for the research foundation of"structural adjustment".
This paper firstly summarized and reviewed the economic growth theory, thetheoretical basis for economic structure and researches on the relationship betweeneconomic structure and growth, clearing the foundation and the basic way of explainingChina’s regional economic growth via economic structures, based on which this papersummarized the structural characteristics of China growth through the method ofdifference in econometrics. In this way, association mechanisms of economic structuresand regional growth are discussed, and the empirical task and the way of econometricsrealization will be spread in later content thus been cleared. In particular, what need tobe emphasized is that the “block-like” regional development under hierarchygovernance has lead to the province space scale effect, with the administrative divisionsas the boundary (e.g., province), at the same time, power quality also makes thedistribution difference of regional economic and structures obvious. In view of this, thespatial scale effects should be recognized in the research of the regional economicgrowth in China.
In order to identify the complex relations between regional economic structure andgrowth in the high-speed growth and clarify China's regional development spatial realization logic, this paper, through growth analysis and spatial scale, identified andexplained the spatial effects of regional structures, describing the relationship betweenstructures and growth. In detail, considering the category of spatial effects, based onlong period provincial data of China, this paper empirically tested and analyzed thespatial spillover effect and the spatial heterogeneity effect of regional economicstructures. Furthermore, based on its conclusion, this paper pointed out that it’snecessary to include the concept of time into the research of relationship betweenstructure and regional growth, dynamically identifying structure effects of China'sregional growth performance. Compared with existing literatures, the innovationsmainly embodied in the following aspects:
Firstly, in view of previous researches mainly limit in single industrial structureand economic analysis always take different units as “detached island”, this paperembarks from regional spatial scale summarize economic structures as an multipleconcept including between-region and in-region structures, reflecting differentmechanisms of effects, spatially the way of spatial effects acting; in this way, wedescribes the spatial transmission path and the action mechanism of China's regionaleconomic, indicating that the realization of regional growth is not an isolated system.Therein, the interpretation of China's regional economic growth process inevitablycannot avoid or ignore the influence of spatial scale, and the regional partition patternhas guiding us that researches should anchor this spatial scale on provincial border,spatial scale become one of the most important difference from other literatures, withspatial matrix and spatial panel model as the implementation tools of our research.
Secondly, it points out that the effects of the economic structures on the regionalgrowth may possibly verified across China’s regions, and based on this thought,empirical evidence is provided to describe the evolution of regional economicstructures’ growth effect. Spatial dependence points to the correlation between regions,while the spatial heterogeneity refers to difference on effect, not only on quantitativevalue but also on the acting effect, so based on a spatial variable coefficient method thispaper identified the local spatial effect of structural variables on regional growth,finding that spatial heterogeneity dose exist. The main purpose of this part is to pointout that the influence of structural variables on growth not only come from differenceson configuration level but also is associated with the matching of structures and regions,the former explains growth using different values, while the later using differentperformance across regions, and together they contribute to the formation of regional growth distribution in China.
Thirdly, based on previous studies, concept of economic time is introduced into ourresearch to identify and discuss about the relationship of structure and growth onceagain by combining static and dynamic analysis together, emphasizing the differencesbetween long-term and short-term structural growth effects. In this part, we use dynamicspatial panel data model including lagged dependent variable and lagged spaceweighted dependent variable to study the actual changes of structural effects, surveyingthe systematic and comprehensive economic operational mechanism and portraying thedynamic process of relationship between structures and growth. Results show that,structures and growth not only related in spatial dimensions, but also in time dimensions,and implication lies in that spatial and temporal interactions should be introduced intostudies on Chinese growth and should focus on the distinguishing of structural factor’slong-term and short-term spatial effects.
引文
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