海陆产业耦合系统分析与评价研究
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摘要
海陆产业耦合系统协同发展是开发海洋资源、缓解陆域资源和环境压力的有效途径，是提高沿海经济增长效率的重要方式，是推进沿海地区新一轮开发的有效手段，也是推动沿海区域经济建设、社会建设、生态文明建设的必然要求，同时也是建设海洋强国的迫切需要。受自然环境的制约，海洋产业和陆域产业在产业规划和产业空间布局方面被分割开来，呈现出明显的二元经济结构，导致海陆产业互动发展过程中出现耦合度不高，发展不协调的问题。本文从产业耦合的视角出发分析海陆产业耦合系统的特性，研究海陆产业耦合系统的演化机理，构建评价模型，探索海陆产业耦合协同发展路径。文章主要内容包括：
1.阐释海陆产业耦合系统的特性。界定海陆产业耦合系统的相关概念，分别从横向关联和纵向发展的视角深入剖析海陆产业系统耦合的原则、内容、结构和功能，分析海陆产业耦合的优势与机遇、劣势与挑战，凝练了典型的海陆产业链耦合运作模式。
2.解析海陆产业耦合系统的耗散结构演化过程。阐释海陆产业耦合系统的开放性、非平衡态、非线性和涨落等特征，分析单一产业系统的结构失稳和耗散过程，结合Logistic方程对单一海洋产业和陆域产业的生命周期进行了分析，通过研究海陆产业耦合系统的稳定性，揭示了海陆产业系统不断寻求更高层次有序结构的演化规律。
3.揭示海陆产业耦合系统的熵变机理。对海陆产业耦合系统进行熵的判别和分析，数理刻画海陆产业系耦合统的速度熵、规模熵和结构熵，建立海陆产业系统耦合过程的熵变模型，剖析了海陆产业系统耦合的熵演化机理。
4.剖析海陆产业耦合系统的协同演化路径。从产业间利益的角度，运用复制动态方程和雅克比矩阵对海洋产业与陆域产业的竞合关系进行模拟，获得系统的动态均衡点，结合相位图法对不同初始状态参数下海陆产业竞合策略的动态演化过程及稳定状态进行分析，对其演化路径进行仿真，并建立海陆产业间竞争与合作的Lotka-Volterra实证模型，从实践上判断海洋产业与陆域产业之间的竞争、互惠合作或捕食与被捕食关系，为不同海陆产业耦合发展政策的制定提供理论依据和有益指导。
5.构建海陆产业耦合系统协同发展评价模型。从横向关联的视角，运用数据包络分析法建立海陆产业耦合系统的协同效度、发展效度和协同发展效度模型及评价指标体系；从纵向发展的视角，采用变异系数法建立海陆产业耦合系统协同发展的耦合度模型、协调度模型及评价指标体系，并以天津为例，对海陆产业耦合系统协同发展现状进行分析，最后建立海陆产业耦合系统协同发展的支撑体系，提出了促进海陆产业耦合系统协同发展的具体对策。
The synergetic development of marine-land industrial coupling system is aneffective way to explore marine resources and relieve the pressure of land resourcesand environment. It is also an important channel to enhance the efficiency of coastaleconomic growth and carry forward a new round development of coastal areas.Meanwhile, it is regarded as an inevitable requirement for promoting economicconstruction, social construction, and ecological civilization construction in coastalareas, as well as an urgent need for marine power construction. Restricted by naturalenvironment, marine industry and land industry are divided into different patterns interms of industrial planning and spatial arrangement, which then present obvious dualeconomic structure and result in low coupling degree and disharmonious process ofmarine-land industry’s integrative development. From the perspective of industrialcoupling, this dissertation probes into the evolution mechanism of marine-landindustrial coupling system and constructs the evaluation model, aiming to explore acoupling synergetic development path for marine-land industries. This dissertation ismainly elaborated within following sections:
1. The explanation of the feature of marine-land industrial coupling system. Bycategorizing the relevant concepts of marine-land industrial coupling system, thisdissertation respectively starts from the perspective of lateral correlation andlongitudinal development to make a thorough analysis of the principle, the content,the structure and the function in marine-land industrial coupling system. By studyingthe advantages and opportunities, disadvantages and challenges of marine-landindustry coupling, it summarizes a typical operating mode of marine-land industrychain.
2. The illustration on the evolution process of the dissipative structure inmarine-land coupling system. By explaining its characteristic of openness,non-equilibrium state, nonlinearity and fluctuation, this dissertation examines thestructural instability and dissipation process of single industry system. Combined withthe Logistic equation, it investigates the life circle of single marine industry and singleland industry. Through the study on the stability of marine-land industrial couplingsystem, it reveals an evolution law that marine-land industry system continuously seeks for an ordered structure of a higher level.
3. The discovery of marine-land industrial coupling system’s entropy changemechanism. Through recognition and analysis of the entropy of marine-land industrialcoupling system, this dissertation represents the speed entropy, scale entropy andstructure entropy. Then it constructs an entropy change model and investigates theentropy evolution mechanism in the process of marine-land industry system coupling.
4. The exploration into marine-land industrial coupling system’s synergeticevolution procedure. In the light of the interest between different industries, itstimulates the competitive-cooperative relationship by utilizing replicator dynamicequation and Jacobian matrix in order to obtain the system’s dynamic balance point.Integrated by phase diagram analysis method, it demonstrates the dynamic evolutionprocess and stability of marine-land industry competitive-cooperative strategies underdifferent initial state parameters. By emulating the evolution path, it builds upLotka-Volterra empirical model of competition and cooperation between marineindustry and land industry. After practical analysis of the competition, cooperation, orpredator-prey relations between marine industry and land industry, it provides thetheoretical foundation and beneficial guidance for the formulation of differentmarine-land industries’ coupling development policies.
5. The construction of an evaluation model of marine-land industrial couplingsystem’s synergetic development. From the view of lateral correlation, thisdissertation applies data envelopment analysis to build up a model and an evaluationindex system of synergetic validity, development validity and synergetic developmentvalidity. From the view of longitudinal development, it adopts the variation coefficientmethod to establish a coupling degree model, a synergetic degree model, and anevaluation index system of marine-land industrial coupling system’s synergeticdevelopment. By taking Tianjin as an example, it elaborates the current developingsituation of marine-land industry coupling system’s synergetic development and builda supporting system of marine-land industry system’ coupling systemic development.In the end, specific countermeasures are proposed for promoting marine-land industrycoupling system’s synergetic development.
1.阐释海陆产业耦合系统的特性。界定海陆产业耦合系统的相关概念，分别从横向关联和纵向发展的视角深入剖析海陆产业系统耦合的原则、内容、结构和功能，分析海陆产业耦合的优势与机遇、劣势与挑战，凝练了典型的海陆产业链耦合运作模式。
2.解析海陆产业耦合系统的耗散结构演化过程。阐释海陆产业耦合系统的开放性、非平衡态、非线性和涨落等特征，分析单一产业系统的结构失稳和耗散过程，结合Logistic方程对单一海洋产业和陆域产业的生命周期进行了分析，通过研究海陆产业耦合系统的稳定性，揭示了海陆产业系统不断寻求更高层次有序结构的演化规律。
3.揭示海陆产业耦合系统的熵变机理。对海陆产业耦合系统进行熵的判别和分析，数理刻画海陆产业系耦合统的速度熵、规模熵和结构熵，建立海陆产业系统耦合过程的熵变模型，剖析了海陆产业系统耦合的熵演化机理。
4.剖析海陆产业耦合系统的协同演化路径。从产业间利益的角度，运用复制动态方程和雅克比矩阵对海洋产业与陆域产业的竞合关系进行模拟，获得系统的动态均衡点，结合相位图法对不同初始状态参数下海陆产业竞合策略的动态演化过程及稳定状态进行分析，对其演化路径进行仿真，并建立海陆产业间竞争与合作的Lotka-Volterra实证模型，从实践上判断海洋产业与陆域产业之间的竞争、互惠合作或捕食与被捕食关系，为不同海陆产业耦合发展政策的制定提供理论依据和有益指导。
5.构建海陆产业耦合系统协同发展评价模型。从横向关联的视角，运用数据包络分析法建立海陆产业耦合系统的协同效度、发展效度和协同发展效度模型及评价指标体系；从纵向发展的视角，采用变异系数法建立海陆产业耦合系统协同发展的耦合度模型、协调度模型及评价指标体系，并以天津为例，对海陆产业耦合系统协同发展现状进行分析，最后建立海陆产业耦合系统协同发展的支撑体系，提出了促进海陆产业耦合系统协同发展的具体对策。
The synergetic development of marine-land industrial coupling system is aneffective way to explore marine resources and relieve the pressure of land resourcesand environment. It is also an important channel to enhance the efficiency of coastaleconomic growth and carry forward a new round development of coastal areas.Meanwhile, it is regarded as an inevitable requirement for promoting economicconstruction, social construction, and ecological civilization construction in coastalareas, as well as an urgent need for marine power construction. Restricted by naturalenvironment, marine industry and land industry are divided into different patterns interms of industrial planning and spatial arrangement, which then present obvious dualeconomic structure and result in low coupling degree and disharmonious process ofmarine-land industry’s integrative development. From the perspective of industrialcoupling, this dissertation probes into the evolution mechanism of marine-landindustrial coupling system and constructs the evaluation model, aiming to explore acoupling synergetic development path for marine-land industries. This dissertation ismainly elaborated within following sections:
1. The explanation of the feature of marine-land industrial coupling system. Bycategorizing the relevant concepts of marine-land industrial coupling system, thisdissertation respectively starts from the perspective of lateral correlation andlongitudinal development to make a thorough analysis of the principle, the content,the structure and the function in marine-land industrial coupling system. By studyingthe advantages and opportunities, disadvantages and challenges of marine-landindustry coupling, it summarizes a typical operating mode of marine-land industrychain.
2. The illustration on the evolution process of the dissipative structure inmarine-land coupling system. By explaining its characteristic of openness,non-equilibrium state, nonlinearity and fluctuation, this dissertation examines thestructural instability and dissipation process of single industry system. Combined withthe Logistic equation, it investigates the life circle of single marine industry and singleland industry. Through the study on the stability of marine-land industrial couplingsystem, it reveals an evolution law that marine-land industry system continuously seeks for an ordered structure of a higher level.
3. The discovery of marine-land industrial coupling system’s entropy changemechanism. Through recognition and analysis of the entropy of marine-land industrialcoupling system, this dissertation represents the speed entropy, scale entropy andstructure entropy. Then it constructs an entropy change model and investigates theentropy evolution mechanism in the process of marine-land industry system coupling.
4. The exploration into marine-land industrial coupling system’s synergeticevolution procedure. In the light of the interest between different industries, itstimulates the competitive-cooperative relationship by utilizing replicator dynamicequation and Jacobian matrix in order to obtain the system’s dynamic balance point.Integrated by phase diagram analysis method, it demonstrates the dynamic evolutionprocess and stability of marine-land industry competitive-cooperative strategies underdifferent initial state parameters. By emulating the evolution path, it builds upLotka-Volterra empirical model of competition and cooperation between marineindustry and land industry. After practical analysis of the competition, cooperation, orpredator-prey relations between marine industry and land industry, it provides thetheoretical foundation and beneficial guidance for the formulation of differentmarine-land industries’ coupling development policies.
5. The construction of an evaluation model of marine-land industrial couplingsystem’s synergetic development. From the view of lateral correlation, thisdissertation applies data envelopment analysis to build up a model and an evaluationindex system of synergetic validity, development validity and synergetic developmentvalidity. From the view of longitudinal development, it adopts the variation coefficientmethod to establish a coupling degree model, a synergetic degree model, and anevaluation index system of marine-land industrial coupling system’s synergeticdevelopment. By taking Tianjin as an example, it elaborates the current developingsituation of marine-land industry coupling system’s synergetic development and builda supporting system of marine-land industry system’ coupling systemic development.In the end, specific countermeasures are proposed for promoting marine-land industrycoupling system’s synergetic development.
引文
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