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中国碳捕获与封存(CCS)产业化发展研究
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摘要
进入新世纪以来,二氧化碳(C02)等温室气体排放所导致的气候变暖问题日益引发全球关注,《巴厘路线图》和《哥本哈根协议》的达成也激励各国积极采取措施应对气候变化。但是,受能效技术进步减缓、能源消费结构刚性和可再生能源路径减少等问题影响,全球范围内碳减排效果远低于预期水平。此种背景下,联合国政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)特别推荐了CO2捕获和封存(Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, CCS)技术,即捕获化石燃料燃烧所产生的C02,并在天然地下储层中长期储存,以减少C02向大气的排放。CCS作为一种直接有效、前景广阔的碳减排技术,在全球范围内得到了快速发展和广泛应用。对中国而言,CCS目前仍处于典型项目的推广示范阶段,但考虑到中国面临的严峻碳减排形势、能源需求和供给结构的刚性约束、经济持续增长的现实要求,研究CCS在中国如何健康快速发展,最终达到CCS产业化水平,具有重要意义。因此,本文选择中国CCS产业化发展作为文章的主要研究目标。
     由于CCS技术在全球范围的推广应用时间不长,且中国CCS技术开发和项目应用的经验更是相对匮乏,本文“中国CCS产业化发展研究”主要以全球范围CCS发达国家经验借鉴和中国现实国情分析相结合的思路展开。考虑到这一问题的战略性、前瞻性和复杂性,本文对此问题的研究主要分为两个层次:第一个层次,CCS产业化发展的可行性、必要性分析,这一部分主要通过全球范围内CCS发展状况分析、CCS应用的资源经济学模型推导分析实现。第二个层次,中国CCS的产业化发展应当如何推进?首先,基于第一层次的分析,本文规划了中国CCS产业化发展的实施步骤,并指出不同阶段中国CCS产业化发展的政策导向;而后,则从金融支持、政策法规、公众认知以及技术应用、市场建设和风险管理等方面,对如何促进中国CCS产业化发展进行了系统分析,并提出了有针对性的政策建议。
     CCs产业化发展的可行性、必要性分析。一方面,本文从现实层面进行了分析论证。通过CCS技术历程的介绍,结合其他技术、环保产业发展的历史经验,本文对CCS产业化的定义、特点进行了较为科学系统地界定和分析;而后,在国内外CCS发展的现实基础上,本文从低碳技术市场化、社会可持续发展、促进和保障就业以及战略新兴产业形成等方面分析了CCS产业化发展的必要性,也从成本有效性、公众认知度、政策法规支撑和风险管控等方面分析了CCS产业化发展的可行性。另一方面,本文构建了同时存在CCS技术应用和新能源替代条件下,经济体效用最大化选择的动态资源经济模型,用以分析不同CCS应用情形下的社会福利变化;模型分析表明,CCS应用对于社会福利提升具有显著的促进作用;在新能源运营成本未显著下降时,CCS将是全社会碳减排的主要动力;而且,CCS若要实现大规模的产业化发展,良好的发展环境构建至关重要。
     对于“中国的CCS产业化应当如何推进”这一问题。一方面,在国外不同阶段CCS发展经验总结、中国CCS发展现状分析的基础上,结合CCS产业化可行性、必要性分析的主要结论,本文提出中国实现CCS产业化发展应当经历的三大步骤,即典型项目示范、重点行业应用和全面市场推广阶段;而且,针对不同发展阶段的特点,指出了相关政策应当关注的重点。另一方面,在中国CCS产业化实现步骤和政策重点分析的基础上,本文选择金融支持、政策法规和公众认知作为中国CCS产业化发展的重要方面进行深入分析,并提出了对应的政策建议。具体来说,金融支持方面,通过对国外金融支持经验总结、中国金融支持现状和问题的分析,本文构建了CCS项目投资(或融资模式选择)的量化评价体系,以期从微观层面助推CCS投融资活动的开展:另外,也从宏观层面提出了加强中国CCS产业化金融支持的主要举措。政策法规方面,通过系统梳理国外发达国家现有的CCS相关法规政策,本文指出中国在CCS法律法规、长远规划和制度安排等方面存在的主要问题;并认为,中国应着重从CCS行业规划和技术标准、CCS配套支持政策和CCS风险管控三个方面完善CCS产业化发展的政策法规体系。公众支持方面,在总结国外不同公众对CCS认知和支持现状的基础上,通过对北京、辽宁等9省区电力、环境、可再生能源、化石能源、政府机关、研究单位、教育机构、企业等行业机构从业人员进行问卷调查,利用因子转荷和回归估计等统计、计量方法,本文考察了中国公众对CCS发展的态度,并提出中国CCS产业化发展赢得公众支持的主要举措。除此之外,本文也从技术应用、市场建设和风险管控等三个方面,指出推动中国CCS产业化发展应当采取的主要措施。
Since the beginning of new century, global warming which is caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions is increasingly raised concerns, and the "Bali Roadmap","Copenhagen agreement" also motivates countries to take active measures to tackle climate change. However, due to slow progress in energy efficiency technologies, energy consumption structure rigidity and reducing in renewable energy choice, the effect of carbon emissions abatement worldwide is far below the expected level. In such a context, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) specially offers Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) technology, which is capturing CO2generated by fossil fuel combustion, and long-term storing it in natural underground reservoirs to reduce CO2emissions to the atmosphere.As a direct, effective and promising carbon abatement technology, CCS has been in the rapid development and wide application worldwide. As to China, CCS currently is still in the phase that most projects are in demonstration; however, considering that China is facing the grim situation of carbon emissions, the rigid constraints of energy demand and supply structure, the practical requirements of sustained economic growth; so, the healthy and rapid development of CCS in China, and ultimately to achieve the industry level, has some important significance. Therefore, this paper chooses the industrial development of CCS in China as the main research area.
     As the promotion and application of CCS technology on a global scale is not long, and China's development experience in CCS technology and projects is relatively scarce, this article," CCS industrial development in China," is mainly based on the combination of CCS experience in developed countries and actual situation in China. Considering that this issue is strategic, forward-looking and complexity, this paper is divided into two sections:the first section, the feasibility and necessity of CCS industrial development, this section mainly focuses on the analysis of global CCS development situation, and the analysis of CCS resources economic models. The second section, how to promote China's CCS industrial development? Firstly, based on the analysis of first section, this paper plans the implementation steps of China's CCS industrial development, and points out the main policy orientation at different stages of China's CCS industrial development. Then, from the angles just like financial support, policies and regulations, public awareness, technical applications, market construction, risk management, etc, this paper has systematically analyzed how to promote the industrial development of China's CCS, and proposed some policy recommendations.
     The feasibility and necessity of CCS industrial development:On the one hand, through the introduction of CCS technology development journey, combined with the historical experience of other technologies and environmental industries, this paper has defined the definition of CCS industrialization, and analyzed characteristics of CCS industrialization; then, on the basis of the reality of CCS development at home and abroad, this paper has analyzed the necessity of CCS industrial development in term of marketization of low-carbon technologies, social sustainable development, promotion and protection of employment and the formation of strategic emerging industries; and also has analyzed the feasibility of CCS industrial development in term of cost effectiveness, public awareness, policies and regulations support and risk management. On the other hand, this paper constructs a dynamic resource economics model of utility maximization, which allows that CCS technology applications and new energy alternatives is coexisted, in order to analyze social welfare changes in different situations of CCS application. Model showed that, CCS application has a significant role in promoting social welfare; in the situation that the operating costs of the new energy are not significantly dropped, CCS will be the main driver of carbon emissions abatement in the whole society; moreover, to achieve large-scale industrial development of CCS, a good development environment is crucial.
     For the question "how to promote China's CCS industrial development." On the one hand, on the basis of the analysis of CCS development experience at different stages in foreign countries, and CCS development status in China, combined with the main conclusions from the feasibility and necessity of CCS industrial development, this paper proposes three development stages to achieve industrial development of CCS in China, namely the typical demonstration projects, application in key industries and comprehensive marketing development stages; furthermore, considering the characteristics of the different stages of CCS industrialization development, this paper points out the relevant policy should be focused on. On the other hand, based on the analysis in China's CCS industry implementation steps and policy priorities, the paper chooses financial support, policy and regulations construction, public awareness as the main aspects of China's CCS industrial development to analyze, and proposes the corresponding policy recommendations. In particular, as to financial support, through the analysis of financial support experience in foreign, the status and problems of China's financial support, this paper builds a CCS project investment (or financing mode selection) quantitative evaluation system, in order to boost micro-level CCS investment activities; and then, proposes financial support policies for China's CCS industrial activities from the macro level. As to policies and regulations, through the existing CCS-related regulations and policies in developed countries, the paper points out the main problems which China's CCS is facing, such as laws and regulations, long-term planning and institutional arrangements, etc; and concludes that China should focus on planning in CCS industry and technical standards, CCS supporting and risk control policies, in order to improve CCS industrial development. As to public support, on the basis of foreign public awareness and supports of CCS from different groups, through a questionnaire survey of employees from relevant industries, such as electricity, environment, renewable energy, energy, government agencies, research institutions, educational institutions, enterprises in Beijing, Liaoning and other provinces, and using load factor turn and regression estimation, this paper examines Chinese public attitudes at the development of CCS, and proposes major initiatives which are helped to win the public supports for China's CCS industrial development. In addition, from technology application, market development and risk control, this article points out the major initiatives in order to promote China's CCS industrial development.
引文
① 资料来源IPCC. Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis [M].Cambridge University Press,2007.
    ② 资料来源:气候组织.CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战[Z].北京:气候组织,2011.
    ① 资料来源:气候组织.CCUS在中国:18个热点问题[Z].北京:气候组织,2011.
    ① 该流程图主要参考王景云等(2012)《碳捕捉与封存技术进展浅析》的示意图。
    ① 资料来源:BP公司,《Statistical Review of World Energy 2012》.
    ① 资料来源IPCC. special report on carbon dioxide capture and storage, Edward S. Rubin,2006.
    ① 资料来源:Al,M.,Whitmore,A.Realistic costs of carbon capture [D]:[Master Thesis of Harvard University]. Cambridge:Harvard University.
    ② 资料来源:全球CCS组织(Global CCS Institute),《2011年全球CCS发展现状》。
    ① 资料来源IEA,Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (2006).
    ② 资料来源IEA, Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (2006).
    ① 如谢和平等(2012)在研究中提出的将碳转化为矿物质的方法等。
    ①IPCC.Climate Change 2007[M].Cambridge:Cambridge university Press,2007.
    ① 例如,用人力或者物理机械替代化石能源的初始成本近乎为零。
    ① 式3.4的推导详细见附录B。
    ① 资料来源:国际能源署(IEA).二氧化碳捕获与封存:碳减排的关键选择[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.
    ② 资料来源:国际能源署(IEA).二氧化碳捕获与封存:碳减排的关键选择[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.
    ① 资料来源:根据《二氧化碳捕获与封存:碳减排的关键选择》、《CCs在中国:现状、机遇与挑战》等整理汇总得到。
    ① 详细内容可以参考本文第七章公众认知调查的分析。
    ① 资料来源:气候组织.CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战[Z].北京:气候组织,2011.
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    ② 资料来源:气候组织CCUS在中国:18个热点问题[Z].北京:气候组织,2011.
    ① 资料来源:气候组织.CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战[Z].北京:气候组织,2011.
    ① 资料来源:根据《CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战》、《CCUS在中国:18个热点问题》等整理得到。
    ① 资料来源:环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心,中国绿色信贷发展报告(2010)
    ① 资料来源:根据《CCS在中国:现状、挑战和机遇》、《二氧化碳捕获与封存:碳减排的关键选择》、《IPCC Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storag》整理得到。
    ① 资料来源:根据《CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战》、《CCUS在中国:18个热点问题》等整理得到。
    ① 本表中数据源自本文第七章CCS公众认知调查的统计,具体可参见附录3的调查问卷。
    ① 资料来源:根据《CCS在中国:现状,挑战和机遇》、《二氧化碳捕获与封存:碳减排的关键选择》、《IPCC Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage》等整理得到。
    ① 资料来源:根据《CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战》、《CCUS在中国:18个热点问题》等整理得到。
    ① 资料来源:《CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战》
    ① 气候组织.CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战[R].北京:气候组织,2011.
    ② 国际能源署(IEA).二氧化碳捕获与封存:碳减排的关键选择[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.
    ① 资料来源:气候组织.CCUS在中国:18个热点问题[R].北京:气候组织,2011.
    ① 资料来源:IEA.二氧化碳捕获与封存:碳减排的关键选择[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2010.
    ① 根据《CCS在中国:现状、机遇与挑战》、《气候组织.CCUS在中国:18个热点问题》整理得到
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