中国产业结构调整的碳排放效应研究
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摘要
面临高速发展与环境保护的深层矛盾，产业结构优化升级被广泛认为是我国低碳发展的有效途径之一。本研究对中国产业结构调整的碳排放效应问题给予了充分的关注。首先，对产业结构演进与碳排放概况进行详细描述；然后，根据1997-2010年我国省际面板数据，基于STIRPAT的扩展形式，运用空间面板模型实证考察产业结构调整的碳排放效应；接着，基于一种灰色关联度模型，测算并分析我国工业结构调整对碳排放的关联效应；最后，构建投入产出的多目标优化模型，借助多目标遗传算法NSGA-Ⅱ模拟测算并分析：假若产业结构达到设想的优化状态时可能发挥的碳排放效应。主要结论包括：
(1)我国及境内各省产业结构的演进趋势总体遵循“三二一”的良性发展方向，各地区或省域产业结构的演进速度与所处阶段不尽相同，东部省域产业结构高级化的整体水平要高于其他省域；同时，我国的碳排放总量仍维持在较高水平上，但增速有所回落，碳排放强度正在下降；碳排放的区域差异性依然明显，碳排放增速较快的省份大多集中在产业结构差异显著的东部和西部地区，可见，资源禀赋、要素投入、技术水平等因素会制约产业结构调整对碳排放影响作用的充分发挥。
(2)中国各区域碳排放量存在空间维度的依赖性和异质性，不能脱离整体环境孤立的考虑自身节能减排战略，各个区域要力求与周边地区协调、互助，共建以低碳排放为特征的产业体系。目前，产业结构高级化的低碳效应已有所显现，但减排效果的充分发挥会受经济规律与发展实际的制约；伴随着机械化步伐加快的农业发展为节能减排带来压力，工业发展的高能耗高污染特征凸显，因而二者比重与碳排放均显著正相关，而其余各类行业比重调整的碳排放效应不甚明显，减碳潜力有待于更充分的激发；鉴于农业的基础性地位，大幅缩减行业规模并不现实，应推进农业机械化与产业结构战略性调整相结合，积极构建行业的低碳发展模式；工业居于国民经济的主导地位，但其增长速度应得到合理控制，同时，要加快提升批发零售住宿餐饮及其他行业比例，而节能技术的创新开发和应用，技术进步与结构调整的协调一致，也是关键所在。
(3)降低碳排放量与促进经济增长、扩大就业之间相互关联而又存在矛盾。即使在保证稳定增长与就业的前提下，中国的产业结构调整作为减少碳排放的手段仍在一定范围内有效；而既定的技术水平、所处的工业化阶段会一定程度上影响到产业结构调整碳排放效应的充分发挥；为此，应推动低能耗、低排放、高附加值的高技术产业快速发展，并着力发展包括现代服务业在内的低碳型第三产业；另外，交通运输仓储邮政业与建筑业尽管属于高碳行业，鉴于其对于经济增长的重要保障作用，仍有在一定范围内扩张的需要。
(4)中国工业结构调整对碳排放总体呈现较强的关联效应，但各行业与碳排放的关联程度存在一定的差异，主要取决于不同行业特性、生产和节能技术水平等因素；对碳排放关联效应及单位产值碳排放量都很大的行业，应成为结构调整的重点行业，如金属冶炼及压延加工业、采矿业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业和化学工业等应适度缩减生产规模，加快淘汰落后产能，提高生产效率与能源利用率；有一类行业既包括以纺织业、食品制造及烟草加工业等传统轻工业，也包括通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业等先进制造业。这类行业的产值比重与碳排放的关联程度不是很高且相差不大，但也不可一味的任意扩张，为了低碳与增长兼顾，应分清调整主次与先后顺序，做到有所侧重，合理的确定扩张速度与发展模式。
China is facing some deep-seated contradictions between development and environmentalprotection, and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is widely regarded as aneffective way to realize low-carbon development. The main goal of current study was to evaluate thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment in China. Firstly, the general situation of theindustrial structure evolution and carbon emission was analyzed; secondly, with the provincial paneldata from1997to2010, based on the extended STIRPAT Model and spatial panel data models, thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment in China was investigated empirically;thirdly, based on a kind of grey incidence model, it estimated and analyzed the relevance between theadjustment of industrial department structure and the carbon emission in our country; at last, based ona multi-objective optimization model of input-output, the multi-objective genetic algorithm ofNSGA-Ⅱwas used to calculate and analyze the carbon emission effect of the industry structure in thecondition of the assumptive optimization status. The conclusions are as follows:
(1)On the whole, the evolution of industrial structure in our country and the provinces presents anupward trend of “three two one”, but the evolution speed and phase of the regional or provincialindustrial adjustment are different in some respects, and the most eastern provinces’ industrialstructure is at a higher than others’; at the same time, total carbon emissions in China remain at a highlevel, but the growth rate is falling back and the carbon emission intensity is dropping; there are someobvious regional differences, and the provinces with the faster growth of carbon emission are mostlyconcentrated in the eastern and western regions which have different industrial structure; so thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment would be restricted by resource endowment,factor inputs, technical level and so on.
(2)There are spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity among the provincial carbon emission inChina, so their own strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction shouldn’t be separatedfrom the overall environment, and each area should strive to coordinate with its surrounding areas soas to build an industrial system with low carbon emission; at present, the industrial structureupgrading has some initial effect on carbon emission reduction, but it is constrained by the economiclaws and the current situation; the mechanization of agriculture development is speeding up, while theindustry is developing with the distinct characteristic of high energy consumption and seriouspollution, and their proportions both have the remarkable positive correlation with carbon emission; however, the proportion adjustment of other industries dosen’t have very obvious low carboneffection, and the potentiality of carbon emission reduction should be inspired more; because of thebasic position of agriculture, it is unrealistic to reduce the industrial scale greatly, the mechanizationof agriculture should be combined with the strategic adjustment of the industrial structure, and itslow-carbon development mode should be actively built; the industry sector is dominant in nationaleconomy, but its growth should be controlled properly; at the same time, it is necessary to expand theindustrial scale of wholesale and retail trades, and hotels and catering services; moreover, theenergy-saving technology’s innovative development and application, and the harmonious cooperationbetween technological progress and structural adjustment are very key too.
(3)There’re some relevance and contradiction among carbon emission reduction, economicgrowth and job enlargement; under the premise of stable economic growth and employment level,industrial restructuring as a means of reducing carbon emissions in China will be still valid within acertain range, but the unchanged technical level and the industrialization stage at present could hinderthe low-carbon emission effect to some degree; for this, the high-tech industrires with low energyconsumption, low emission and high added value should be quickly developed and the the modernservice industry, belonging to the low-carbon tertiary industry, also need to be actively developed; inaddition, given its important role for economic development, the transportation, post and storageservices and the construction, belonging to the high-carbon industry, should be expanded at someextend.
(4)Overall, there is a strong correlation between industrial structure and carbon emission in China,but how much various industries relate to the emission is not the same, and the differences result fromvarying industrial features, engineering levels of production and so on; the industries with very highcarbon productivity which are closely related with carbon emission should become the major object ofstructure adjustment; for example, the industry of smelting and pressing of metals, the mining industry,the industries of production and supply of electricity, gas and water, the chemical industry and alikereally need the appropriate scaling-back of production to upgrade the productive efficiency andenergy utilization rate; there is a kind of industries not only including some traditional light industriessuch as textile industry and manufacture of foods, beverages and tobacco, but also covering someadvanced manufacturing industries such as manufacture of communication equipment, computers andother electronic equipment, manufacture of measuring instruments and machinery for cultural activityand office work; the correlation degrees between these industries’ share of output value and carbonemission are all not very high and almost the same; however, they shouldn’t be expanded without limit and for low-carbon emission and economic growth, we should draw a clear distinction betweenthe primary and the secondary when the industrial restructuring, place extra emphasis on severalindustries, and determine the developing pace and mode reasonably.
(1)我国及境内各省产业结构的演进趋势总体遵循“三二一”的良性发展方向，各地区或省域产业结构的演进速度与所处阶段不尽相同，东部省域产业结构高级化的整体水平要高于其他省域；同时，我国的碳排放总量仍维持在较高水平上，但增速有所回落，碳排放强度正在下降；碳排放的区域差异性依然明显，碳排放增速较快的省份大多集中在产业结构差异显著的东部和西部地区，可见，资源禀赋、要素投入、技术水平等因素会制约产业结构调整对碳排放影响作用的充分发挥。
(2)中国各区域碳排放量存在空间维度的依赖性和异质性，不能脱离整体环境孤立的考虑自身节能减排战略，各个区域要力求与周边地区协调、互助，共建以低碳排放为特征的产业体系。目前，产业结构高级化的低碳效应已有所显现，但减排效果的充分发挥会受经济规律与发展实际的制约；伴随着机械化步伐加快的农业发展为节能减排带来压力，工业发展的高能耗高污染特征凸显，因而二者比重与碳排放均显著正相关，而其余各类行业比重调整的碳排放效应不甚明显，减碳潜力有待于更充分的激发；鉴于农业的基础性地位，大幅缩减行业规模并不现实，应推进农业机械化与产业结构战略性调整相结合，积极构建行业的低碳发展模式；工业居于国民经济的主导地位，但其增长速度应得到合理控制，同时，要加快提升批发零售住宿餐饮及其他行业比例，而节能技术的创新开发和应用，技术进步与结构调整的协调一致，也是关键所在。
(3)降低碳排放量与促进经济增长、扩大就业之间相互关联而又存在矛盾。即使在保证稳定增长与就业的前提下，中国的产业结构调整作为减少碳排放的手段仍在一定范围内有效；而既定的技术水平、所处的工业化阶段会一定程度上影响到产业结构调整碳排放效应的充分发挥；为此，应推动低能耗、低排放、高附加值的高技术产业快速发展，并着力发展包括现代服务业在内的低碳型第三产业；另外，交通运输仓储邮政业与建筑业尽管属于高碳行业，鉴于其对于经济增长的重要保障作用，仍有在一定范围内扩张的需要。
(4)中国工业结构调整对碳排放总体呈现较强的关联效应，但各行业与碳排放的关联程度存在一定的差异，主要取决于不同行业特性、生产和节能技术水平等因素；对碳排放关联效应及单位产值碳排放量都很大的行业，应成为结构调整的重点行业，如金属冶炼及压延加工业、采矿业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业和化学工业等应适度缩减生产规模，加快淘汰落后产能，提高生产效率与能源利用率；有一类行业既包括以纺织业、食品制造及烟草加工业等传统轻工业，也包括通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业和仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业等先进制造业。这类行业的产值比重与碳排放的关联程度不是很高且相差不大，但也不可一味的任意扩张，为了低碳与增长兼顾，应分清调整主次与先后顺序，做到有所侧重，合理的确定扩张速度与发展模式。
China is facing some deep-seated contradictions between development and environmentalprotection, and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is widely regarded as aneffective way to realize low-carbon development. The main goal of current study was to evaluate thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment in China. Firstly, the general situation of theindustrial structure evolution and carbon emission was analyzed; secondly, with the provincial paneldata from1997to2010, based on the extended STIRPAT Model and spatial panel data models, thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment in China was investigated empirically;thirdly, based on a kind of grey incidence model, it estimated and analyzed the relevance between theadjustment of industrial department structure and the carbon emission in our country; at last, based ona multi-objective optimization model of input-output, the multi-objective genetic algorithm ofNSGA-Ⅱwas used to calculate and analyze the carbon emission effect of the industry structure in thecondition of the assumptive optimization status. The conclusions are as follows:
(1)On the whole, the evolution of industrial structure in our country and the provinces presents anupward trend of “three two one”, but the evolution speed and phase of the regional or provincialindustrial adjustment are different in some respects, and the most eastern provinces’ industrialstructure is at a higher than others’; at the same time, total carbon emissions in China remain at a highlevel, but the growth rate is falling back and the carbon emission intensity is dropping; there are someobvious regional differences, and the provinces with the faster growth of carbon emission are mostlyconcentrated in the eastern and western regions which have different industrial structure; so thecarbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment would be restricted by resource endowment,factor inputs, technical level and so on.
(2)There are spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity among the provincial carbon emission inChina, so their own strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction shouldn’t be separatedfrom the overall environment, and each area should strive to coordinate with its surrounding areas soas to build an industrial system with low carbon emission; at present, the industrial structureupgrading has some initial effect on carbon emission reduction, but it is constrained by the economiclaws and the current situation; the mechanization of agriculture development is speeding up, while theindustry is developing with the distinct characteristic of high energy consumption and seriouspollution, and their proportions both have the remarkable positive correlation with carbon emission; however, the proportion adjustment of other industries dosen’t have very obvious low carboneffection, and the potentiality of carbon emission reduction should be inspired more; because of thebasic position of agriculture, it is unrealistic to reduce the industrial scale greatly, the mechanizationof agriculture should be combined with the strategic adjustment of the industrial structure, and itslow-carbon development mode should be actively built; the industry sector is dominant in nationaleconomy, but its growth should be controlled properly; at the same time, it is necessary to expand theindustrial scale of wholesale and retail trades, and hotels and catering services; moreover, theenergy-saving technology’s innovative development and application, and the harmonious cooperationbetween technological progress and structural adjustment are very key too.
(3)There’re some relevance and contradiction among carbon emission reduction, economicgrowth and job enlargement; under the premise of stable economic growth and employment level,industrial restructuring as a means of reducing carbon emissions in China will be still valid within acertain range, but the unchanged technical level and the industrialization stage at present could hinderthe low-carbon emission effect to some degree; for this, the high-tech industrires with low energyconsumption, low emission and high added value should be quickly developed and the the modernservice industry, belonging to the low-carbon tertiary industry, also need to be actively developed; inaddition, given its important role for economic development, the transportation, post and storageservices and the construction, belonging to the high-carbon industry, should be expanded at someextend.
(4)Overall, there is a strong correlation between industrial structure and carbon emission in China,but how much various industries relate to the emission is not the same, and the differences result fromvarying industrial features, engineering levels of production and so on; the industries with very highcarbon productivity which are closely related with carbon emission should become the major object ofstructure adjustment; for example, the industry of smelting and pressing of metals, the mining industry,the industries of production and supply of electricity, gas and water, the chemical industry and alikereally need the appropriate scaling-back of production to upgrade the productive efficiency andenergy utilization rate; there is a kind of industries not only including some traditional light industriessuch as textile industry and manufacture of foods, beverages and tobacco, but also covering someadvanced manufacturing industries such as manufacture of communication equipment, computers andother electronic equipment, manufacture of measuring instruments and machinery for cultural activityand office work; the correlation degrees between these industries’ share of output value and carbonemission are all not very high and almost the same; however, they shouldn’t be expanded without limit and for low-carbon emission and economic growth, we should draw a clear distinction betweenthe primary and the secondary when the industrial restructuring, place extra emphasis on severalindustries, and determine the developing pace and mode reasonably.
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