煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警研究
|
摘要
摘要：长期以来,瓦斯灾害一直威胁着我国煤炭工业的健康发展,并造成了重大的财产损失和人员伤亡。瓦斯爆炸灾害是煤矿瓦斯灾害的最主要形式,具有破坏性强、经济损失大、人员伤亡多等显著特点,是煤矿安全生产中最严重的事故类型。论文针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害防控和预警体系中存在的薄弱环节,运用安全科学、系统科学、信息与计算科学以及矿山安全等相关理论,采用理论研究、现场调查、数值分析、计算机模拟和系统开发等相结合的方法,研究煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估和预警方法体系,实现瓦斯爆炸灾害预警信息化系统,对实现煤矿安全生产系统中的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险“早期识别”和事故的“事先预防”,提高煤矿本质安全化水平,促进煤炭工业的安全可持续发展等具有重要意义。
(1)系统分析了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害机理与预控技术,提出了现有煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害预控管理理论与方法体系尚存在的问题；针对煤矿安全生产系统具有的非线性动力学特性和瓦斯爆炸灾害风险源的复杂性,将风险管理和事故致因理论引入到煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害预控中,提出了基于多源信息融合机制的煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警模型,以解决现有瓦斯爆炸灾害预防所需的信息量少、信息及时性差等问题。
(2)针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害危险源的多样性与复杂性,以及它们之间存在相互影响、相互作用且带有反馈等特点,从“人-机-环境-管理”4个层面来系统分析瓦斯爆炸灾害系统的危险源,采用灰色关联分析法来计算危险源对瓦斯爆炸灾害影响程度的大小,根据灰色关联计算结果来构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估指标体系；运用网络分析法ANP来刻画评估指标之间非线性和非彼此独立的网络关系,并计算评估指标的权重分布。
(3)提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估的GRA-ANP-FCE模型。该模型采用灰色关联分析方法计算影响因素的灰色关联度并进行排序,以获得煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的主控因素,采用网络分析法建立了多准则、多层次的评估指标体系网络模型并计算各评估指标权重,结合评估指标的权重分布,采用多级模糊综合评判法对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的态势进行评估；针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害系统中存在大量确定性和不确定性影响因素,运用集对分析理论中的联系熵特性,提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势的ANP-SPA评估模型,并应用该模型对煤矿进行瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估。
(4)根据煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警框架,在风险分级体系和风险预测研究基础上,系统阐述了瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警的程序与内容和风险预警等级与预警阀值设置；分析了GRNN神经网络预测基本原理,并提出了对GRNN神经网络的光滑因子进行优化算法,建立了基于改进的GRNN的瓦斯浓度预警模型并进行了模型性能检验和效果评估,预测结果可靠,对瓦斯浓度预测超限预警达到了很好的效果；分析了概率神经网络(PNN)和信息融合中决策层融合的基本原理,建立了瓦斯爆炸灾害的决策层融合PNN预警模型,通过实例验证,PNN预警模型在瓦斯爆炸灾害预警中的预警能力强、效率高。
(5)在系统分析煤矿安全生产中其它业务管理信息系统的体系和数据结构基础上,设计煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的结构及其数据流程,构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的体系结构,并建立基于多源信息融合的灾害预警共享数据中心。为提高信息系统的可扩展性、可靠性、健壮性和鲁棒性,采用多语言多平台的设计理念来开发煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警信息系统,包括Matlab、PowerBuilder和Visual C++等。
论文针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险预控中存在的薄弱环节,在国家自然科学基金资助项目(51274100)等资助下,运用多学科交叉理论进行了瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的构建与应用研究,有较高的学术研究价值和推广应用前景。(图83幅,表28个,参考文献195篇)
Abstract:For a long time, the gas disaster has been threatening the healthy development of China's coal industry, and caused great casualties and property loss. Gas explosion accident is the main form of gas disaster in coal mine, having the remarkable characteristics such as devastating strong, large economic loss, serious casualtie and so on, and is the most serious type of accident in the coal mine safety production. Aiming at the weak link of the prevention and early-warning system of gas explosion disaster in coal mine, the method system of situation assessment and early-warning for gas explosion disaster in coal mine was studied by using the relevant theories such as safety science, system science, information&computer science and so on. The study have achieved the early-warning management information system of gas explosion disaster by the mothod combining with theoretical research, field observation, numerical analysis, computer simulation and software development. The research results are great importance to the implementation of early risk recognition and accident prevention in advance in the coal mine safety production system, the improvement of the coal mine intrinsically safe level, and the promotion of sustainable development in coal mine safety.
(1) Analysis of the coal mine gas explosion mechanism and prevention and control technology systematically, puts forward the problems of management theory and method system exsisting in it. Accordig to the complexity of risk source of gas explosion and the nonlinear dynamics characteristics of the coal mine production safety system, the situatin assessment and early-warning model of gas explosion disaster in coal mine based on the multi-source information coupling mechanism was put forward by using the risk management and accident causing theory. It had solved the existing problems of information was less and timeliness, which was for gas explosion hazard prevention.
(2) Aiming at the diversity and complexity of risk sources of gas explosion, and the mutual influence, interaction and feedback characteristic among of them, the risk sources of gas explosion from the4aspects of "man, machine, environment, management" were analysised. The incidence of risk sources to gas explosion disaster was calulasted by using Gray Relaional Analysis, and the situation assessment index system of gas explosion disaster was built by using the calculation results. To describe the nonlinear and non-independent network relationships among of indexes, Analytic Network Process built the network computation model and calculated the weight distribution of assessment indexes.
(3) The GRA-ANP-FCE assessment model to evaluate the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mine was proposed. The model used the Grey Relational Analysis to calculate the grey relational degrees of risk factors of and ranked them, and the master factors of gas explosion disaster were got. The multi-criteri and multi-levels network computation model for the assessment index system of gas explosion disaster was built by using ANP, and the weights of it would be calculated. The multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used to assess the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mine. Because of existing the large amount of certainty and uncertainty effect factors of gas explosion disaster system, this article proposed the ANP-SPA assessment model for gas explosion disaster by using the characteristics of connection entropy of Set Pair Analysis.
(4) According to the frame of the situation assessment and early warning system of coal mine gas explosion disaster, the procedure and contents of the frame and the setting of risk warning level and warning threshold on the basis of the research of the risk classification system and risk prediction was introduced. The basic principle of GRNN neural network was studied systematically. The optimization algorithm for the smooth factor of GRNN was put forward. The gas concentration prediction model was established based on the improved GRNN and the assessment model performance and its effection were tested, and its results were reliable. The probabilistic neural network (PNN) theory and the decision fusion theory of information fusion was analysised, and the decision fusion PNN model of the comprehensive early warning of gas explosion disaster. Through the example, the results of it show that the PNN model had strong early-warning capability and high efficiency.
(5) In the analysis of the system and their data structure of other business management information system in coal mine safety production, the system architecture of situation assessment and early warning of gas explosion disaster was constructed, and a shared data center for disaster early warning information based on the multi-resource information fusion was established. In order to improve the software information system scalability, reliability, robustness and the robustness, the design concept with the multi language and multi platform was adopted, and it was used to develop the situation assessment and early warning information system for gas explosion disaster, including Matlab, PowerBuilder, Visual C++, and so on.
In view of weak links of risk pre-control of gas explosion disaster in the coal mine, with funding from the project5127410of National Natural Science Foundation of China, the situation assessment and the application of early warning system of gas explosion in coal mines are studied by using multidisciplinary theories in this research, which will be very valuable both in academic development and potential application.
(1)系统分析了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害机理与预控技术,提出了现有煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害预控管理理论与方法体系尚存在的问题；针对煤矿安全生产系统具有的非线性动力学特性和瓦斯爆炸灾害风险源的复杂性,将风险管理和事故致因理论引入到煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害预控中,提出了基于多源信息融合机制的煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警模型,以解决现有瓦斯爆炸灾害预防所需的信息量少、信息及时性差等问题。
(2)针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害危险源的多样性与复杂性,以及它们之间存在相互影响、相互作用且带有反馈等特点,从“人-机-环境-管理”4个层面来系统分析瓦斯爆炸灾害系统的危险源,采用灰色关联分析法来计算危险源对瓦斯爆炸灾害影响程度的大小,根据灰色关联计算结果来构建煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估指标体系；运用网络分析法ANP来刻画评估指标之间非线性和非彼此独立的网络关系,并计算评估指标的权重分布。
(3)提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估的GRA-ANP-FCE模型。该模型采用灰色关联分析方法计算影响因素的灰色关联度并进行排序,以获得煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的主控因素,采用网络分析法建立了多准则、多层次的评估指标体系网络模型并计算各评估指标权重,结合评估指标的权重分布,采用多级模糊综合评判法对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害的态势进行评估；针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害系统中存在大量确定性和不确定性影响因素,运用集对分析理论中的联系熵特性,提出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势的ANP-SPA评估模型,并应用该模型对煤矿进行瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估。
(4)根据煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警框架,在风险分级体系和风险预测研究基础上,系统阐述了瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警的程序与内容和风险预警等级与预警阀值设置；分析了GRNN神经网络预测基本原理,并提出了对GRNN神经网络的光滑因子进行优化算法,建立了基于改进的GRNN的瓦斯浓度预警模型并进行了模型性能检验和效果评估,预测结果可靠,对瓦斯浓度预测超限预警达到了很好的效果；分析了概率神经网络(PNN)和信息融合中决策层融合的基本原理,建立了瓦斯爆炸灾害的决策层融合PNN预警模型,通过实例验证,PNN预警模型在瓦斯爆炸灾害预警中的预警能力强、效率高。
(5)在系统分析煤矿安全生产中其它业务管理信息系统的体系和数据结构基础上,设计煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的结构及其数据流程,构建了煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的体系结构,并建立基于多源信息融合的灾害预警共享数据中心。为提高信息系统的可扩展性、可靠性、健壮性和鲁棒性,采用多语言多平台的设计理念来开发煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警信息系统,包括Matlab、PowerBuilder和Visual C++等。
论文针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害风险预控中存在的薄弱环节,在国家自然科学基金资助项目(51274100)等资助下,运用多学科交叉理论进行了瓦斯爆炸灾害态势评估与预警系统的构建与应用研究,有较高的学术研究价值和推广应用前景。(图83幅,表28个,参考文献195篇)
Abstract:For a long time, the gas disaster has been threatening the healthy development of China's coal industry, and caused great casualties and property loss. Gas explosion accident is the main form of gas disaster in coal mine, having the remarkable characteristics such as devastating strong, large economic loss, serious casualtie and so on, and is the most serious type of accident in the coal mine safety production. Aiming at the weak link of the prevention and early-warning system of gas explosion disaster in coal mine, the method system of situation assessment and early-warning for gas explosion disaster in coal mine was studied by using the relevant theories such as safety science, system science, information&computer science and so on. The study have achieved the early-warning management information system of gas explosion disaster by the mothod combining with theoretical research, field observation, numerical analysis, computer simulation and software development. The research results are great importance to the implementation of early risk recognition and accident prevention in advance in the coal mine safety production system, the improvement of the coal mine intrinsically safe level, and the promotion of sustainable development in coal mine safety.
(1) Analysis of the coal mine gas explosion mechanism and prevention and control technology systematically, puts forward the problems of management theory and method system exsisting in it. Accordig to the complexity of risk source of gas explosion and the nonlinear dynamics characteristics of the coal mine production safety system, the situatin assessment and early-warning model of gas explosion disaster in coal mine based on the multi-source information coupling mechanism was put forward by using the risk management and accident causing theory. It had solved the existing problems of information was less and timeliness, which was for gas explosion hazard prevention.
(2) Aiming at the diversity and complexity of risk sources of gas explosion, and the mutual influence, interaction and feedback characteristic among of them, the risk sources of gas explosion from the4aspects of "man, machine, environment, management" were analysised. The incidence of risk sources to gas explosion disaster was calulasted by using Gray Relaional Analysis, and the situation assessment index system of gas explosion disaster was built by using the calculation results. To describe the nonlinear and non-independent network relationships among of indexes, Analytic Network Process built the network computation model and calculated the weight distribution of assessment indexes.
(3) The GRA-ANP-FCE assessment model to evaluate the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mine was proposed. The model used the Grey Relational Analysis to calculate the grey relational degrees of risk factors of and ranked them, and the master factors of gas explosion disaster were got. The multi-criteri and multi-levels network computation model for the assessment index system of gas explosion disaster was built by using ANP, and the weights of it would be calculated. The multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used to assess the situation of gas explosion disaster in coal mine. Because of existing the large amount of certainty and uncertainty effect factors of gas explosion disaster system, this article proposed the ANP-SPA assessment model for gas explosion disaster by using the characteristics of connection entropy of Set Pair Analysis.
(4) According to the frame of the situation assessment and early warning system of coal mine gas explosion disaster, the procedure and contents of the frame and the setting of risk warning level and warning threshold on the basis of the research of the risk classification system and risk prediction was introduced. The basic principle of GRNN neural network was studied systematically. The optimization algorithm for the smooth factor of GRNN was put forward. The gas concentration prediction model was established based on the improved GRNN and the assessment model performance and its effection were tested, and its results were reliable. The probabilistic neural network (PNN) theory and the decision fusion theory of information fusion was analysised, and the decision fusion PNN model of the comprehensive early warning of gas explosion disaster. Through the example, the results of it show that the PNN model had strong early-warning capability and high efficiency.
(5) In the analysis of the system and their data structure of other business management information system in coal mine safety production, the system architecture of situation assessment and early warning of gas explosion disaster was constructed, and a shared data center for disaster early warning information based on the multi-resource information fusion was established. In order to improve the software information system scalability, reliability, robustness and the robustness, the design concept with the multi language and multi platform was adopted, and it was used to develop the situation assessment and early warning information system for gas explosion disaster, including Matlab, PowerBuilder, Visual C++, and so on.
In view of weak links of risk pre-control of gas explosion disaster in the coal mine, with funding from the project5127410of National Natural Science Foundation of China, the situation assessment and the application of early warning system of gas explosion in coal mines are studied by using multidisciplinary theories in this research, which will be very valuable both in academic development and potential application.
引文
[1]BP集团.BP世界能源统计年鉴2012[OL],http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview, 2013-10-29
[2]BP集团.BP 2030世界能源展望[OL], http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview, 2013-10-29
[3]李毅中.当前安全生产工作的12个问题[OL]. http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/. 2008-2-28
[4]国家安全生产监督管理总局[OL], http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/newpage/, 2013-11-10
[5]王捷帆,李文俊.中国煤矿事故暨专家点评集[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2002
[6]国家安全生产监督管理总局矿山救援指挥中心.矿山事故急救战例及分析[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2006
[7]王纪国.最新全国270例典型矿难剖析[M].合肥：安徽文化音像出版社,2004
[8]国家煤矿安全监察局人事司.全国煤矿特大事故案例选编[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2000
[9]国家煤矿安全监察局.全国小型煤矿特大事故案例选编(2000-2003)[M].北京：煤炭上业出版社,2004
[10]王毫编著.全国特重大伤亡事故典型案例汇编(上)[M].北京：中国劳动社会保障出版社,2004
[11]国家安全生产监管局.特大事故案例选编(2000-2001)[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2003
[12]来永宝,吴传始,鲍道亮.小煤矿法律法规及事故案例分析[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2003
[13]国家安全生产监督管理总局,国家煤矿安全监察局.煤矿安全规程[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2011
[14]周心权,吴兵,等.煤矿井下瓦斯爆炸的基本特性[J].中国煤炭,2002,28(9)：8-11
[15]王丽琼,冯长根,杜志明.有限空间内爆炸和点火的理论与实验[M].北京：北京理工大学出版社,2005
[16]冯长根.热爆炸理论[M].北京：科学出版社,1988
[17]Gray and Lee PR. Oxidation and Combustion Reviews. Vol.2 Elsevier, NewYork,Pl(1967).
[18]Bowes P C. Self-heating:Evaluating and Controlling the Hazards. H M Stationary Office, London,1984.
[19]D.A.Frank-Kamenetskii. Diffusion and Heat Transfer in Chemical Kineties[J]. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer,1971,14(8):1229-1230
[20]赵衡阳.气体和粉尘爆炸原理[M].北京：北京理工大学出版社,1996.
[21]F.A.威廉斯著,庄逢辰,杨本镰译.燃烧理论[M].北京：科学出版社,1990.
[22]欧文.格拉斯曼著,张惠富,张保城译.燃烧学[M].北京：科学出版社,1983.
[23]James A.Miller, Craig T. Bowman. Mechanism and modeling of nitrogen chemistry in combustion[J]. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science,1989, 15(4):287-338
[24]Peter Glarborg, Maria U.Alzueta, Kim Dam-Johansen, James A.Miller. Kinetic Modeling of Hydrocarbon/Nitric Oxide Interactions in a Flow Reactor[J]. Combustion and Flame,1998,115(1-2):1-27.
[25]GRI-Mech. GRI-Mech Home Page[OL]. http://www.me.berkeley.edu./gri-mech/. 2013-9-5
[26]Combustion Chemistry Lab [OL]. http://chem.Leeds.ac.uk/combustion/combus tion.html,2013-10-15
[27]akonnov [OL]. http://homepages.vub.ac.be/akonnov,2013-10-16.
[28]胡耀元,周邦智,杨元法,等.H2、CH4、CO多元爆炸性混合气体的爆炸极限及其容器因素[J].中国科学(B辑),2002,32(1)：35-39
[29]罗振敏,邓军,郭晓波.基于Gaussian的瓦斯爆炸微观反应机理[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2008,27(3)：325-328.
[30]邓军,李会荣,杨迎,等.瓦斯爆炸微观动力学及热力学分析[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4)：488-491.
[31]张俊霞.CH材空气燃烧反应动力学机理的简化及应用[D].包头：内蒙古科技大学,2005
[32]董刚,刘宏伟,陈义良.通用甲烷层流预混火焰半详细化学动力学机理[J].燃烧科学与技术,2002,8(1)：44-48.
[33]Sun Peide. Study on the mechanism of interaction for coal and methane gas[J]. Journal of Coal Science & Engineering,2001,7(1):58-63
[34]杨迎春.HZo：异构化反应的密度泛函理论研究[J].四川师范大学学报,2006,29(2)：224-227.
[35]高志崇.甲烷爆炸后体系的温度与压力[J].辽宁大学学报,2008,35(2)：143-146
[36]高志崇.甲烷燃烧反应的火焰温度[J].山西大学学报,2004,27(1)：32-34
[37]高志崇.烃燃烧反应机理探讨[J].辽宁大学学报,2002,29(3)：266-71
[38]高志祟.燃烧反应火焰温度的探讨[J].聊城师院学报,2001,14(1)：57-60
[39]汪泉.管道中甲烷-空气预混气爆炸火焰传播的研究[D].合肥：安徽理工大学,2006
[40]萨文科,古林,马雷,等.井下空气冲击波[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,1979
[41]Kees van Wingerden, Dag Bjerketvedt, Jan Roar Bakke. Detonation in pipes and in the Open[M]. Bergen, Norway:Christian MiChelsen Research
[42]H Phylaktou, GE Andrews. Gas explosions in linked vessels[J]. Journal of loss preventionin the process industries,1993,6:15-19
[43]煤科院抚顺分院.八五国家科技攻关项目报告(项目编号85-202-01-02-5)
[44]煤科院重庆分院.八五国家科技攻关项目报告(自动隔爆装置限制煤尘爆炸传播的研究),1987
[45]王从银,何学秋.瓦斯爆炸传播火焰高内聚力特性的试验研究[J].中国矿业大学学报,2001,30(3)：217-220
[46]徐景德.矿井瓦斯爆炸冲击波传播规律及影响因素的研究[D].北京：中国矿业大学,2003
[47]翟成,林柏泉,菅从光.瓦斯爆炸火焰波在分叉管路中的传播规律[J].中国安全科学学报,2005,15(6)：69-72
[48]张辉,菅从光.电磁场对瓦斯爆炸影响的实验研究与理论分析[J].矿业安全与环保,2007,34(1)：11-13
[49]杨艺.瓦斯爆炸火焰细微结构与火焰传播机理的研究[D].徐州：中国矿业大学.2003
[50]景国勋,杨玉中.矿山重大危险源辨识、评价及预警技术[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,2008
[51]桑海泉.煤矿安全监控系统研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(10)：184-188
[52]周邦全.煤矿安全监测监控系统的发展历程和趋势[J].矿业安全与环保,2007,34(1S)：76-77
[53]李树刚,徐竟天,黄金星.基于工业以太网的瓦斯监控系统设计[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(2)：141-145
[54]杨维,周嗣勇,乔华.煤矿安全监测无线传感器网络节点定位技术[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(6)：652-656
[55]李润求,施式亮,彭新.基于ZigBee技术的煤矿井下人员跟踪定位系统研究[J].煤,2009,(2)：4-7
[56]朱红平,李白雅,李润求.基于设备网(DeviceNet)总线技术的矿井瓦斯传感器的设计[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(10)：165-171
[57]Ana-Maria Fuertes. Optimal design of early warning systems for sovereign debt crises[J]. International Journal of Forecasting,2007,23(1):85-100
[58]W. L. Tung. GenSo-EWS:a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failure[J]. Neural Networks,2004,17:567-587
[59]Matthieu Bussiere, Marcel Fratzscher. Towards a new early warning system of financial crises[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2006,25(6): 953-973
[60]William J. de Groot, Johann G. Goldammer, Tom Keenan, et al. Developing a global early warning system for wildland fire[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2006,234(S1):101-110
[61]Guido Cervone, Meanas Kafatos, Demenico Napoletani. An early warning system for coastal earthquakes [J]. Advance in Space Research,2006,37(4): 636-642
[62]李红杰,吴荣俊,许永胜,等.采掘业灾害预警管理[M].石家庄：河北科学技术出版社,2004
[63]肖全兴.矿井通风安全管理预警系统研究[J].矿业安全与环保,1999,(3)：4-7
[64]何国家,刘双勇,孙彦彬.煤矿事故隐患监控预警的理论与实践[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(2)：212-217
[65]李春民,王云海,张兴凯.矿山安全监测预警与综合管理信息系统[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2007,26(5)：655-657
[66]牛强,周勇,王志晓,夏士雄.基于自组织神经网络的煤矿安全预警系统[J].计算机工程与设计,2006,27(10)：1752-1753
[67]杨玉中,冯长根,吴立云.基于可拓理论的煤矿安全预警模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(1)：40-45
[68]杨勇,李树刚,郭佳,等.基于极值统计理论的矿井瓦斯浓度预警模型[J].西安科技大学学报,2009,29(6)：682-685
[69]杨禹华,钟震宇,蔡康旭.基于模糊模式识别的瓦斯含量指标异常预警技术[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(9)：172-176
[70]张纯如,汪勇,盯梅生.矿井瓦斯浓度异常变化危险性预警的研究[J].安徽理工大学学报(自然科学版),2011,31(3)：62-67
[71]牛聚粉,程五一.基于时间维度的煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系的构建[J].煤炭工程,2012,59(5)：96-98
[72]曾丽君,张金锁,闫海强.基于INTEMOR的煤矿瓦斯事故智能预警系统[J]. 煤矿安全,2009,39(11)：53-56
[73]韦勇.网络安全态势评估模型研究[D].中国科学技术大学,2009
[74]Hall D.L, Llinas J. An Introduction to Multisensor Data Fusion[J]. Proceeding of IEEE,1997,85(1):6-23.
[75]Steinberg A, Bowman C, White F. Revisions to the JDL Data Fusion Model [J]. SPIE,1999,3719:430-441.
[76]Smith P.J, McCoy C.E, Layton C. Brittleness in the Design of Coopeartive problem-solving Systems:the Effcts on User Performance [J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cyberneties, PartA,1997,27(3):360-371.
[77]Hall D.L, Llinas J. Handbook of Multisenlsor Data Fusion[M]. WaShington DC, NY:CRC Press,2001
[78]Vakas D, Prince J, Blacksten H.R, Burdiek C. Comander Behavior and Course of Action Selection in JWARS[C]. Proceedings of simulation Conference(Winter), 2001,1:697-705
[79]Urban C.D. Design and Evaluation of a Tactical Decision Aid[C]. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics,1990,812-814.
[80]Azarewicz J, Fala G, Heithecker C. Template-based Multi-agent Plan Recognition for Tactial Situation Assessment[C]. Proceedings of Fifth Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Applications,1989,247-254
[81]康耀红.数据融合理论与应用[M].西安：西安电子科技人学出版社,1997
[82]姚春燕,胡卫东,郁文贤.态势估计中的统计时间区间推理方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(3)：32-35
[83]姚春燕,杨宏文,胡卫东,等.态势估计中一种模糊时间推理方法[J].模糊系统与数学,2000,14(3)：66-71
[84]姚春燕,郁文贤,庄钊文.态势估计中一种基于贝叶斯估计的统计时间推理方法[J].火力与指挥控制,1999,24(1)：45-52
[85]姚春燕,胡卫东,郁文贤.态势估计中基于假设检验的统计时间推理方法.国防科技大学学报,1999,21(6)：59-62
[86]李兵,郁文贤,胡卫东.基于条件事件代数系统的条件证据组合与条件信任组合[J].模糊系统与数学,2001,15(1)：103-107
[87]王三民.模糊推理及态势估计研究[D].西安电子科技人学,2004
[88]贝塔朗菲.一般系统论：基础、发展和应用[M].林康义,魏宏森,译.北京：清华大学出版社,1987
[89]N.维纳.控制论(或关于在动物和机器中控制和通讯的科学)[M].北京：科学出版社,1985
[90]李润求,施式亮,彭新.煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故演化的突变模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(3)：22-27
[91]施式亮,王海桥.矿井安全非线性动力学评价[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2001
[92]罗云.风险分析与安全评价[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2011
[93]罗云.现代安全管理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2010
[94]范道津,陈伟珂.风险管理理论与工具[M].天津：天津大学出版社,2010
[95]许蔓舒.国际危机预警研究综述[J].国际论坛,2006,(8)：75-78.
[96]佘丛国,席酉民.我国企业预警研究理论综述[J].预测,2003(2)：23-29.
[97]Steinberg A.N. Bowman C.L. White F.E. Revisions to the JDL model [J]. SPIE, 1999,3719:430-441
[98]赵宗贵.信息融合技术现状、概念与结构模型[J].中国电子科学研究院学报,2006,1(4)：305-312
[99]Thomopoulos S.C. Sensor integration and data fusion[J]. SPIE,1989, 1198:178-191
[100]Luo R. Kay M. Multisensor integration and fusion:issues and approaches[J]. SPIE,1988,931:195-202
[101]Shulsky A. Silent Warfare:Understanding the World of Intelligence[M]. London: Brassey's Defence Publishers,1993
[102]Pau L.F. Sensor data fusion[J]. Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems,1988, 1(2):103-116
[103]Boyd J. A discourse on winning and losing[M]. Alabama:Maxwell Air Force Base Lecture,1987
[104]何友,关欣,王国宏.多传感器信息融合研究进展与展望[J].宇航学报,2005,26(4)：524-529
[105]佘廉.企业预警管理理论[M].石家庄：河北科学技术出版社,1999
[106]念其锋,施式亮,李润求.煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险性的ANP-SPA评价模型及应用[J].科技导报,2013,31(23)：40-44
[107]李向,徐清.基于灰色关联分析理论的典型区域土壤重金属污染评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(1)：150-154
[108]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉：华中科技大学出版社.2002
[109]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(8)：2041-2046
[110]周刚,程卫民.改进的模糊灰色关联分析法在热舒适度影响因素评定中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(4)：90-93
[111]张可,刘思峰.灰色关联聚类在面板数据中的扩展及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7)：1253-1259
[112]张启义,周先华,王文涛.基于改进灰色关联分析法的工程防护效能评估方法[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,8(3)：283-287
[113]严武,王辉.中国资本市场与产业结构升级关系的实证研究一—基于协整检验和灰色关联分析法[J].江西财经大学学报,2012,(2)：17-25
[114]李涛,蒋英杰,孙志强.航空维修差错模式及差错成因的灰色关联分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(2)：85-89
[115]李蒙,袁策凤.核电站人因失误的动态灰色关联分析[J].核动力工程,2010,31(3)：74-77
[116]Saaty T.L. Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback[M]. Pittsburgh: RWS Publication,1996.
[117]Saaty T.L. Fundamentals of the ANP-dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2004,13(2):129-157
[118]Saaty T.L. Negative Priorities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modeling,2003,(37):1063-1075
[119]Saaty T.L. Decision making-the AHP and ANP[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2004,13(1):1-35.
[120]Saaty T.L. Fundamentals of the ANP-the multiple networks with benefits, costs, opportunities and risks[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2004,13(3):348-379.
[121]王莲芬.网络分析法的理论与算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,3：44-50.
[122]陈志祥.基于ANP理论的供需协调绩效评价模型与算法[J].计算机集成制造系统-CIMS,2004,10(3):286-291
[123]赵国杰,刑小强.ANP法评价区域科技实力的理论与实证分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,5
[124]黎青松.企业物流系统战略评价的ANP法[J].物流技术与应用,2000,2：32-34
[125]杨晓龙,杨金保.基于ANP的石油企业软实力评价研究[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(社会科学版),2012,14(2)
[126]George Mavrotas, Yannis Caloghirou, Jacques Koune. A model on cash flow forecasting and early warning for multi-project programme:application to the operational programme for the information society in Greece [J]. International Journal of Project Management,2005,23:121-133
[127]Jose-Manuel Zaldlvar, Jordi Bossh, Fernanda Strozzi. Early warning detection of runaway initiation using non-linear approaches [J]. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2005,10:299-311
[128]Jeffery W Gunther, Robert R Moore. Early warning models in real time[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance,2003,27:1979-2001.
[129]Cynthia A. Philips. Time series analysis of famine early warning systems in Mali[D]. USA:Michigan State University,2002
[130]Specht D F. A general regression neural network[J]. IEEE T Neural Network, 1991,2:568-576.
[131]Leszek R. Generalized regression neural networks in time-varying environment[J]. IEEE T Neural Network,2004,15:576-596
[132]Polat O., Yildinm T. Genetic optimization of GRNN for pattern recognition without feature extraction[J]. Expert systems with application,2008,34:2444-2448
[133]伊良忠,章超,裴峥.广义回归神经网络的改进及在交通预测中的应用[J].山东大学学报(工学版),2013,43(1)：1-6.
[134]李钦,左廷英,何卓臣,等.广义回归神经网络在深基坑监测中的应用[J].现代测绘,2012,35(4)：8-10.
[135]潘文超.应用果蝇优化算法优化广义回归神经网络进行企业经营绩效评估[J].太原理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,29(4)：1-5.
[136]郭斌,孟令启,杜勇,等.基于GRNN神经网络的中厚板轧机厚度预测[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,42(4)：960-965
[137]闻新,周露,李翔.MATLAB神经网络仿真与应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2003：288-289.
[138]周少龙,周锋.基于时间序列GRNN神经网络的港口货物吞吐量预测模型[J].大连海事大学学报,2011,32(1)：1-4
[139]Turban E., Zhou D., Ma J. A group decision support approach to evaluating [J]. Information & Management,2004,42(1):31-44
[140]Kwok R., Ma J., Zhou D. Collaborative assessment in education:an application of a fuzzy GSS[J]. Information & Management,2001,39(3):243-253
[141]Ekel P.Y. Fuzzy sets and models of decision making[J]. Computer and Mathematics with applications,2002,44(7):865-875
[142]Wu Z., Leathy R. An optimal graph theoretic approach to data clustering:theory and it's application to image segmentation[E]. IEEE APMI,1993, 15(11):1101-1113
[143]陆怡.模糊综合评价方法及其在风险分析中的应用[J].江苏工业学院学报,2006,46-49
[144]李鸿吉,模糊数学基础及实用算法[J],科学出版社,2005,
[145]郭成明.ANP-FCE在水利工程后评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(3)：135-138
[146]丁厚成,黄新杰.基于AHP-FCE的煤矿通风系统可靠性评价研究[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(3)：153-159
[147]龚剑,胡乃联,张延凯,等.基于AHP-FCE法的高海拔地区采矿方法优选[J].金属矿山,2013,(9)：1-5
[148]张俊英.采空区地表建筑地基稳定性模糊综合评价方法[J].北京科技大学学报,2009,1(11)：1368-1372
[149]龚声武,蔡明悦,李夕兵.AHP-FCE法在采矿方法优选中的应用[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2009,269(1)：41-44
[150]NIAN Qifeng, SHI Shiliang, LI Runqiu. Research and application of safety assessment method of gas explosion accident in coal mine based on GRA-ANP-FCE[A].2012 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology,2012:106-111
[151]王莉,田水承,王晓宁.联系熵在煤矿安全预评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(9)129-133
[152]常晓林,张美丽,杨海云,等.基于联系熵的围岩稳定性评价研究[J].岩土力学,2010,31(1)：99-101
[153]魏连雨,张洋.集对分析在山区农村公路路侧危险等级评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学,2011,21(9)：9-15
[154]杨俊杰.基于MOPSO和集对分析决策方法的流域梯级联合优化调度[D].华中科技大学,2007
[155]徐广波,轩少永,尤庆华.基于熵权的模糊集对模型在港口水域通航风险评价中的应用[J].上海海事大学学报,2012,33(1)：7-11
[156]孟宪萌,胡和平.基于熵权的集对分析模型在水质综合评价中的应用[J].水力学报,2009,40(3)：257-262
[157]念其锋,施式亮,李润求.基于联系熵的煤与瓦斯突出区域预测方法[J].矿业工程研究,2013,28(3)：25-29
[158]D.F. Specht. Probabilistic neural network for classification or associative memory[J]. ICNN,1988, (1):525-532
[159]孙继平,陈伟,王福增,等.概率神经网络在矿井红外监控图像识别中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(11)：1206-1210.
[160]刘坤,刘贤赵,王巍,等.模糊概率神经网络水质评价模型及其运用[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(12)：138-144
[161]念其锋,施式亮,李润求.基于PNN的煤矿安全生产风险综合预警研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(10)：71-77
[162]庞素琳.概率神经网络信用评价模型及预警研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(5)：43-48
[163]李润求,施式亮,朱川曲.基于PNN的巷道围岩稳定性分类[J].矿业工程研究,2013,28(3)：6-9
[164]赵大成,贾海燕.手机短信收发的AT指令控制[J].信息工程大学学报,2004,5(2)：90-92
[165]WAVECOM. An introduction to the SMS in PDU mode.2000
[166]SIEMENS Mobile. AT Command Set.2002
[167]齐保良,杜文洪,邹军.基于GSM的变电所遥测遥控系统[J].电测与仪表,2003,40(1)：22-26
[168]赵大成,贾海燕.手机短信收发的AT指令控制[J].信息工程大学学报,2004,5(2)：90-92
[169]王伟.基于GSM短信的信息管理系统开发[D].哈尔滨工程大学,2006
[170]于洪珍,徐立中,王慧斌,著.监测监控信息融合技术[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2010
[171]彭冬亮,文成林,薛安克,著.多传感器多源信息融合理论及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2010
[172]韩崇昭,朱洪艳,段战胜,等著.多源信息融合[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006
[173]何友,王国宏,关欣,等著.信息融合理论及应用[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2010
[174]王志胜,姜斌,甄子洋,著.融合估计与融合控制[M].北京：科学出版社,2009
[175]邓军,肖旸,陈晓坤,等.矿井火灾多源信息融合预警方法的研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2011,28(4)：638-643
[176]张晓强,高莉,于洪珍.煤矿监测监控系统信息融合结构的研究[J].工矿自动化,2007,(4)：80-82
[177]孙延飞,李智超,王静,等.多传感器数据融合在煤矿安全监测中的应用[J].煤矿安全,2012,43(1)：102-104
[178]王文庆,龚娜,张涛,等.基于二级融合的矿井环境智能监测研究[J].传感器与微系统,2013,32(2)：57-62
[179]陈晓坤.煤自燃多源信息融合预警研究[D].西安科技大学,2012
[180]梁庆枫,颜虹.SQL Server 2005应用教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2010
[181]邵顺增.SQL Server 2005项目实践教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2010
[182]飞思科技产品研发中心.SQL Server 2000数据库和数据仓库[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2001
[183][英]Thomas Connolly, Carolyn Begg著,宁洪,等译.数据库系统-设计、实现与管理(第三版)[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2004
[184]李建义,主编.数据库原理及开发[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2005
[185]李英,编著.Visual C++编程与项目开发[M].上海：华东理工大学,2008
[186]李连营,李清泉,李汉武,等编著.基于MapX的GIS应用开发[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2003
[187]牛聚粉.基于MapX的煤与瓦斯突出预警技术研究[D].中国地质大学(北京),2009
[188]郭健,徐小东.利用PowerBuilder与MapX技术建立地籍管理信息系统[J].计算机应用与软件,2004,21(5)：57-60
[189]杨斌,何政伟,刘小勇,等.MapX与PowerBuilder集成技术在交通事故信息系统中的应用[J].测绘科学,2008,33(3)：178-194
[190]潘玉民,邓永红,张全柱.基于QPSO-RBF的瓦斯涌出量预测模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(12)：29-34
[191]林柏泉.安全学原理[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2002
[192]廖军.公路交通信息资源整合及系统实现研究[D].长安大学,2009
[193]许鑫,苏新宁,吴乃冈.高校共享数据中心平台的设计与实现[J].现代图书情报技术,2005,(6)：48-53
[194]王宁,王延章,叶鑫,等.一种基于数据中心的政府信息资源整合系统架构设计[J].计算机应用研究,2005,(9)：67-71
[195]李润求,施式亮,罗文柯.煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故特征与耦合规律研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(2)：69-74
[2]BP集团.BP 2030世界能源展望[OL], http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview, 2013-10-29
[3]李毅中.当前安全生产工作的12个问题[OL]. http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/. 2008-2-28
[4]国家安全生产监督管理总局[OL], http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/newpage/, 2013-11-10
[5]王捷帆,李文俊.中国煤矿事故暨专家点评集[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2002
[6]国家安全生产监督管理总局矿山救援指挥中心.矿山事故急救战例及分析[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2006
[7]王纪国.最新全国270例典型矿难剖析[M].合肥：安徽文化音像出版社,2004
[8]国家煤矿安全监察局人事司.全国煤矿特大事故案例选编[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2000
[9]国家煤矿安全监察局.全国小型煤矿特大事故案例选编(2000-2003)[M].北京：煤炭上业出版社,2004
[10]王毫编著.全国特重大伤亡事故典型案例汇编(上)[M].北京：中国劳动社会保障出版社,2004
[11]国家安全生产监管局.特大事故案例选编(2000-2001)[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2003
[12]来永宝,吴传始,鲍道亮.小煤矿法律法规及事故案例分析[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2003
[13]国家安全生产监督管理总局,国家煤矿安全监察局.煤矿安全规程[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2011
[14]周心权,吴兵,等.煤矿井下瓦斯爆炸的基本特性[J].中国煤炭,2002,28(9)：8-11
[15]王丽琼,冯长根,杜志明.有限空间内爆炸和点火的理论与实验[M].北京：北京理工大学出版社,2005
[16]冯长根.热爆炸理论[M].北京：科学出版社,1988
[17]Gray and Lee PR. Oxidation and Combustion Reviews. Vol.2 Elsevier, NewYork,Pl(1967).
[18]Bowes P C. Self-heating:Evaluating and Controlling the Hazards. H M Stationary Office, London,1984.
[19]D.A.Frank-Kamenetskii. Diffusion and Heat Transfer in Chemical Kineties[J]. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer,1971,14(8):1229-1230
[20]赵衡阳.气体和粉尘爆炸原理[M].北京：北京理工大学出版社,1996.
[21]F.A.威廉斯著,庄逢辰,杨本镰译.燃烧理论[M].北京：科学出版社,1990.
[22]欧文.格拉斯曼著,张惠富,张保城译.燃烧学[M].北京：科学出版社,1983.
[23]James A.Miller, Craig T. Bowman. Mechanism and modeling of nitrogen chemistry in combustion[J]. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science,1989, 15(4):287-338
[24]Peter Glarborg, Maria U.Alzueta, Kim Dam-Johansen, James A.Miller. Kinetic Modeling of Hydrocarbon/Nitric Oxide Interactions in a Flow Reactor[J]. Combustion and Flame,1998,115(1-2):1-27.
[25]GRI-Mech. GRI-Mech Home Page[OL]. http://www.me.berkeley.edu./gri-mech/. 2013-9-5
[26]Combustion Chemistry Lab [OL]. http://chem.Leeds.ac.uk/combustion/combus tion.html,2013-10-15
[27]akonnov [OL]. http://homepages.vub.ac.be/akonnov,2013-10-16.
[28]胡耀元,周邦智,杨元法,等.H2、CH4、CO多元爆炸性混合气体的爆炸极限及其容器因素[J].中国科学(B辑),2002,32(1)：35-39
[29]罗振敏,邓军,郭晓波.基于Gaussian的瓦斯爆炸微观反应机理[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2008,27(3)：325-328.
[30]邓军,李会荣,杨迎,等.瓦斯爆炸微观动力学及热力学分析[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4)：488-491.
[31]张俊霞.CH材空气燃烧反应动力学机理的简化及应用[D].包头：内蒙古科技大学,2005
[32]董刚,刘宏伟,陈义良.通用甲烷层流预混火焰半详细化学动力学机理[J].燃烧科学与技术,2002,8(1)：44-48.
[33]Sun Peide. Study on the mechanism of interaction for coal and methane gas[J]. Journal of Coal Science & Engineering,2001,7(1):58-63
[34]杨迎春.HZo：异构化反应的密度泛函理论研究[J].四川师范大学学报,2006,29(2)：224-227.
[35]高志崇.甲烷爆炸后体系的温度与压力[J].辽宁大学学报,2008,35(2)：143-146
[36]高志崇.甲烷燃烧反应的火焰温度[J].山西大学学报,2004,27(1)：32-34
[37]高志崇.烃燃烧反应机理探讨[J].辽宁大学学报,2002,29(3)：266-71
[38]高志祟.燃烧反应火焰温度的探讨[J].聊城师院学报,2001,14(1)：57-60
[39]汪泉.管道中甲烷-空气预混气爆炸火焰传播的研究[D].合肥：安徽理工大学,2006
[40]萨文科,古林,马雷,等.井下空气冲击波[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,1979
[41]Kees van Wingerden, Dag Bjerketvedt, Jan Roar Bakke. Detonation in pipes and in the Open[M]. Bergen, Norway:Christian MiChelsen Research
[42]H Phylaktou, GE Andrews. Gas explosions in linked vessels[J]. Journal of loss preventionin the process industries,1993,6:15-19
[43]煤科院抚顺分院.八五国家科技攻关项目报告(项目编号85-202-01-02-5)
[44]煤科院重庆分院.八五国家科技攻关项目报告(自动隔爆装置限制煤尘爆炸传播的研究),1987
[45]王从银,何学秋.瓦斯爆炸传播火焰高内聚力特性的试验研究[J].中国矿业大学学报,2001,30(3)：217-220
[46]徐景德.矿井瓦斯爆炸冲击波传播规律及影响因素的研究[D].北京：中国矿业大学,2003
[47]翟成,林柏泉,菅从光.瓦斯爆炸火焰波在分叉管路中的传播规律[J].中国安全科学学报,2005,15(6)：69-72
[48]张辉,菅从光.电磁场对瓦斯爆炸影响的实验研究与理论分析[J].矿业安全与环保,2007,34(1)：11-13
[49]杨艺.瓦斯爆炸火焰细微结构与火焰传播机理的研究[D].徐州：中国矿业大学.2003
[50]景国勋,杨玉中.矿山重大危险源辨识、评价及预警技术[M].北京：冶金工业出版社,2008
[51]桑海泉.煤矿安全监控系统研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(10)：184-188
[52]周邦全.煤矿安全监测监控系统的发展历程和趋势[J].矿业安全与环保,2007,34(1S)：76-77
[53]李树刚,徐竟天,黄金星.基于工业以太网的瓦斯监控系统设计[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(2)：141-145
[54]杨维,周嗣勇,乔华.煤矿安全监测无线传感器网络节点定位技术[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(6)：652-656
[55]李润求,施式亮,彭新.基于ZigBee技术的煤矿井下人员跟踪定位系统研究[J].煤,2009,(2)：4-7
[56]朱红平,李白雅,李润求.基于设备网(DeviceNet)总线技术的矿井瓦斯传感器的设计[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(10)：165-171
[57]Ana-Maria Fuertes. Optimal design of early warning systems for sovereign debt crises[J]. International Journal of Forecasting,2007,23(1):85-100
[58]W. L. Tung. GenSo-EWS:a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failure[J]. Neural Networks,2004,17:567-587
[59]Matthieu Bussiere, Marcel Fratzscher. Towards a new early warning system of financial crises[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2006,25(6): 953-973
[60]William J. de Groot, Johann G. Goldammer, Tom Keenan, et al. Developing a global early warning system for wildland fire[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2006,234(S1):101-110
[61]Guido Cervone, Meanas Kafatos, Demenico Napoletani. An early warning system for coastal earthquakes [J]. Advance in Space Research,2006,37(4): 636-642
[62]李红杰,吴荣俊,许永胜,等.采掘业灾害预警管理[M].石家庄：河北科学技术出版社,2004
[63]肖全兴.矿井通风安全管理预警系统研究[J].矿业安全与环保,1999,(3)：4-7
[64]何国家,刘双勇,孙彦彬.煤矿事故隐患监控预警的理论与实践[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(2)：212-217
[65]李春民,王云海,张兴凯.矿山安全监测预警与综合管理信息系统[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2007,26(5)：655-657
[66]牛强,周勇,王志晓,夏士雄.基于自组织神经网络的煤矿安全预警系统[J].计算机工程与设计,2006,27(10)：1752-1753
[67]杨玉中,冯长根,吴立云.基于可拓理论的煤矿安全预警模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(1)：40-45
[68]杨勇,李树刚,郭佳,等.基于极值统计理论的矿井瓦斯浓度预警模型[J].西安科技大学学报,2009,29(6)：682-685
[69]杨禹华,钟震宇,蔡康旭.基于模糊模式识别的瓦斯含量指标异常预警技术[J].中国安全科学学报,2007,17(9)：172-176
[70]张纯如,汪勇,盯梅生.矿井瓦斯浓度异常变化危险性预警的研究[J].安徽理工大学学报(自然科学版),2011,31(3)：62-67
[71]牛聚粉,程五一.基于时间维度的煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系的构建[J].煤炭工程,2012,59(5)：96-98
[72]曾丽君,张金锁,闫海强.基于INTEMOR的煤矿瓦斯事故智能预警系统[J]. 煤矿安全,2009,39(11)：53-56
[73]韦勇.网络安全态势评估模型研究[D].中国科学技术大学,2009
[74]Hall D.L, Llinas J. An Introduction to Multisensor Data Fusion[J]. Proceeding of IEEE,1997,85(1):6-23.
[75]Steinberg A, Bowman C, White F. Revisions to the JDL Data Fusion Model [J]. SPIE,1999,3719:430-441.
[76]Smith P.J, McCoy C.E, Layton C. Brittleness in the Design of Coopeartive problem-solving Systems:the Effcts on User Performance [J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cyberneties, PartA,1997,27(3):360-371.
[77]Hall D.L, Llinas J. Handbook of Multisenlsor Data Fusion[M]. WaShington DC, NY:CRC Press,2001
[78]Vakas D, Prince J, Blacksten H.R, Burdiek C. Comander Behavior and Course of Action Selection in JWARS[C]. Proceedings of simulation Conference(Winter), 2001,1:697-705
[79]Urban C.D. Design and Evaluation of a Tactical Decision Aid[C]. Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Systems Man and Cybernetics,1990,812-814.
[80]Azarewicz J, Fala G, Heithecker C. Template-based Multi-agent Plan Recognition for Tactial Situation Assessment[C]. Proceedings of Fifth Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Applications,1989,247-254
[81]康耀红.数据融合理论与应用[M].西安：西安电子科技人学出版社,1997
[82]姚春燕,胡卫东,郁文贤.态势估计中的统计时间区间推理方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(3)：32-35
[83]姚春燕,杨宏文,胡卫东,等.态势估计中一种模糊时间推理方法[J].模糊系统与数学,2000,14(3)：66-71
[84]姚春燕,郁文贤,庄钊文.态势估计中一种基于贝叶斯估计的统计时间推理方法[J].火力与指挥控制,1999,24(1)：45-52
[85]姚春燕,胡卫东,郁文贤.态势估计中基于假设检验的统计时间推理方法.国防科技大学学报,1999,21(6)：59-62
[86]李兵,郁文贤,胡卫东.基于条件事件代数系统的条件证据组合与条件信任组合[J].模糊系统与数学,2001,15(1)：103-107
[87]王三民.模糊推理及态势估计研究[D].西安电子科技人学,2004
[88]贝塔朗菲.一般系统论：基础、发展和应用[M].林康义,魏宏森,译.北京：清华大学出版社,1987
[89]N.维纳.控制论(或关于在动物和机器中控制和通讯的科学)[M].北京：科学出版社,1985
[90]李润求,施式亮,彭新.煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故演化的突变模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(3)：22-27
[91]施式亮,王海桥.矿井安全非线性动力学评价[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2001
[92]罗云.风险分析与安全评价[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2011
[93]罗云.现代安全管理[M].北京：化学工业出版社,2010
[94]范道津,陈伟珂.风险管理理论与工具[M].天津：天津大学出版社,2010
[95]许蔓舒.国际危机预警研究综述[J].国际论坛,2006,(8)：75-78.
[96]佘丛国,席酉民.我国企业预警研究理论综述[J].预测,2003(2)：23-29.
[97]Steinberg A.N. Bowman C.L. White F.E. Revisions to the JDL model [J]. SPIE, 1999,3719:430-441
[98]赵宗贵.信息融合技术现状、概念与结构模型[J].中国电子科学研究院学报,2006,1(4)：305-312
[99]Thomopoulos S.C. Sensor integration and data fusion[J]. SPIE,1989, 1198:178-191
[100]Luo R. Kay M. Multisensor integration and fusion:issues and approaches[J]. SPIE,1988,931:195-202
[101]Shulsky A. Silent Warfare:Understanding the World of Intelligence[M]. London: Brassey's Defence Publishers,1993
[102]Pau L.F. Sensor data fusion[J]. Journal of Intelligent and Robotic Systems,1988, 1(2):103-116
[103]Boyd J. A discourse on winning and losing[M]. Alabama:Maxwell Air Force Base Lecture,1987
[104]何友,关欣,王国宏.多传感器信息融合研究进展与展望[J].宇航学报,2005,26(4)：524-529
[105]佘廉.企业预警管理理论[M].石家庄：河北科学技术出版社,1999
[106]念其锋,施式亮,李润求.煤矿瓦斯爆炸危险性的ANP-SPA评价模型及应用[J].科技导报,2013,31(23)：40-44
[107]李向,徐清.基于灰色关联分析理论的典型区域土壤重金属污染评价研究[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(1)：150-154
[108]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉：华中科技大学出版社.2002
[109]刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(8)：2041-2046
[110]周刚,程卫民.改进的模糊灰色关联分析法在热舒适度影响因素评定中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2005,5(4)：90-93
[111]张可,刘思峰.灰色关联聚类在面板数据中的扩展及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7)：1253-1259
[112]张启义,周先华,王文涛.基于改进灰色关联分析法的工程防护效能评估方法[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,8(3)：283-287
[113]严武,王辉.中国资本市场与产业结构升级关系的实证研究一—基于协整检验和灰色关联分析法[J].江西财经大学学报,2012,(2)：17-25
[114]李涛,蒋英杰,孙志强.航空维修差错模式及差错成因的灰色关联分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(2)：85-89
[115]李蒙,袁策凤.核电站人因失误的动态灰色关联分析[J].核动力工程,2010,31(3)：74-77
[116]Saaty T.L. Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback[M]. Pittsburgh: RWS Publication,1996.
[117]Saaty T.L. Fundamentals of the ANP-dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2004,13(2):129-157
[118]Saaty T.L. Negative Priorities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modeling,2003,(37):1063-1075
[119]Saaty T.L. Decision making-the AHP and ANP[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2004,13(1):1-35.
[120]Saaty T.L. Fundamentals of the ANP-the multiple networks with benefits, costs, opportunities and risks[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2004,13(3):348-379.
[121]王莲芬.网络分析法的理论与算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,3：44-50.
[122]陈志祥.基于ANP理论的供需协调绩效评价模型与算法[J].计算机集成制造系统-CIMS,2004,10(3):286-291
[123]赵国杰,刑小强.ANP法评价区域科技实力的理论与实证分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,5
[124]黎青松.企业物流系统战略评价的ANP法[J].物流技术与应用,2000,2：32-34
[125]杨晓龙,杨金保.基于ANP的石油企业软实力评价研究[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(社会科学版),2012,14(2)
[126]George Mavrotas, Yannis Caloghirou, Jacques Koune. A model on cash flow forecasting and early warning for multi-project programme:application to the operational programme for the information society in Greece [J]. International Journal of Project Management,2005,23:121-133
[127]Jose-Manuel Zaldlvar, Jordi Bossh, Fernanda Strozzi. Early warning detection of runaway initiation using non-linear approaches [J]. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2005,10:299-311
[128]Jeffery W Gunther, Robert R Moore. Early warning models in real time[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance,2003,27:1979-2001.
[129]Cynthia A. Philips. Time series analysis of famine early warning systems in Mali[D]. USA:Michigan State University,2002
[130]Specht D F. A general regression neural network[J]. IEEE T Neural Network, 1991,2:568-576.
[131]Leszek R. Generalized regression neural networks in time-varying environment[J]. IEEE T Neural Network,2004,15:576-596
[132]Polat O., Yildinm T. Genetic optimization of GRNN for pattern recognition without feature extraction[J]. Expert systems with application,2008,34:2444-2448
[133]伊良忠,章超,裴峥.广义回归神经网络的改进及在交通预测中的应用[J].山东大学学报(工学版),2013,43(1)：1-6.
[134]李钦,左廷英,何卓臣,等.广义回归神经网络在深基坑监测中的应用[J].现代测绘,2012,35(4)：8-10.
[135]潘文超.应用果蝇优化算法优化广义回归神经网络进行企业经营绩效评估[J].太原理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,29(4)：1-5.
[136]郭斌,孟令启,杜勇,等.基于GRNN神经网络的中厚板轧机厚度预测[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,42(4)：960-965
[137]闻新,周露,李翔.MATLAB神经网络仿真与应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2003：288-289.
[138]周少龙,周锋.基于时间序列GRNN神经网络的港口货物吞吐量预测模型[J].大连海事大学学报,2011,32(1)：1-4
[139]Turban E., Zhou D., Ma J. A group decision support approach to evaluating [J]. Information & Management,2004,42(1):31-44
[140]Kwok R., Ma J., Zhou D. Collaborative assessment in education:an application of a fuzzy GSS[J]. Information & Management,2001,39(3):243-253
[141]Ekel P.Y. Fuzzy sets and models of decision making[J]. Computer and Mathematics with applications,2002,44(7):865-875
[142]Wu Z., Leathy R. An optimal graph theoretic approach to data clustering:theory and it's application to image segmentation[E]. IEEE APMI,1993, 15(11):1101-1113
[143]陆怡.模糊综合评价方法及其在风险分析中的应用[J].江苏工业学院学报,2006,46-49
[144]李鸿吉,模糊数学基础及实用算法[J],科学出版社,2005,
[145]郭成明.ANP-FCE在水利工程后评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(3)：135-138
[146]丁厚成,黄新杰.基于AHP-FCE的煤矿通风系统可靠性评价研究[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(3)：153-159
[147]龚剑,胡乃联,张延凯,等.基于AHP-FCE法的高海拔地区采矿方法优选[J].金属矿山,2013,(9)：1-5
[148]张俊英.采空区地表建筑地基稳定性模糊综合评价方法[J].北京科技大学学报,2009,1(11)：1368-1372
[149]龚声武,蔡明悦,李夕兵.AHP-FCE法在采矿方法优选中的应用[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2009,269(1)：41-44
[150]NIAN Qifeng, SHI Shiliang, LI Runqiu. Research and application of safety assessment method of gas explosion accident in coal mine based on GRA-ANP-FCE[A].2012 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology,2012:106-111
[151]王莉,田水承,王晓宁.联系熵在煤矿安全预评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(9)129-133
[152]常晓林,张美丽,杨海云,等.基于联系熵的围岩稳定性评价研究[J].岩土力学,2010,31(1)：99-101
[153]魏连雨,张洋.集对分析在山区农村公路路侧危险等级评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学,2011,21(9)：9-15
[154]杨俊杰.基于MOPSO和集对分析决策方法的流域梯级联合优化调度[D].华中科技大学,2007
[155]徐广波,轩少永,尤庆华.基于熵权的模糊集对模型在港口水域通航风险评价中的应用[J].上海海事大学学报,2012,33(1)：7-11
[156]孟宪萌,胡和平.基于熵权的集对分析模型在水质综合评价中的应用[J].水力学报,2009,40(3)：257-262
[157]念其锋,施式亮,李润求.基于联系熵的煤与瓦斯突出区域预测方法[J].矿业工程研究,2013,28(3)：25-29
[158]D.F. Specht. Probabilistic neural network for classification or associative memory[J]. ICNN,1988, (1):525-532
[159]孙继平,陈伟,王福增,等.概率神经网络在矿井红外监控图像识别中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2007,32(11)：1206-1210.
[160]刘坤,刘贤赵,王巍,等.模糊概率神经网络水质评价模型及其运用[J].数学的实践与认识,2006,36(12)：138-144
[161]念其锋,施式亮,李润求.基于PNN的煤矿安全生产风险综合预警研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(10)：71-77
[162]庞素琳.概率神经网络信用评价模型及预警研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(5)：43-48
[163]李润求,施式亮,朱川曲.基于PNN的巷道围岩稳定性分类[J].矿业工程研究,2013,28(3)：6-9
[164]赵大成,贾海燕.手机短信收发的AT指令控制[J].信息工程大学学报,2004,5(2)：90-92
[165]WAVECOM. An introduction to the SMS in PDU mode.2000
[166]SIEMENS Mobile. AT Command Set.2002
[167]齐保良,杜文洪,邹军.基于GSM的变电所遥测遥控系统[J].电测与仪表,2003,40(1)：22-26
[168]赵大成,贾海燕.手机短信收发的AT指令控制[J].信息工程大学学报,2004,5(2)：90-92
[169]王伟.基于GSM短信的信息管理系统开发[D].哈尔滨工程大学,2006
[170]于洪珍,徐立中,王慧斌,著.监测监控信息融合技术[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2010
[171]彭冬亮,文成林,薛安克,著.多传感器多源信息融合理论及应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2010
[172]韩崇昭,朱洪艳,段战胜,等著.多源信息融合[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006
[173]何友,王国宏,关欣,等著.信息融合理论及应用[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2010
[174]王志胜,姜斌,甄子洋,著.融合估计与融合控制[M].北京：科学出版社,2009
[175]邓军,肖旸,陈晓坤,等.矿井火灾多源信息融合预警方法的研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2011,28(4)：638-643
[176]张晓强,高莉,于洪珍.煤矿监测监控系统信息融合结构的研究[J].工矿自动化,2007,(4)：80-82
[177]孙延飞,李智超,王静,等.多传感器数据融合在煤矿安全监测中的应用[J].煤矿安全,2012,43(1)：102-104
[178]王文庆,龚娜,张涛,等.基于二级融合的矿井环境智能监测研究[J].传感器与微系统,2013,32(2)：57-62
[179]陈晓坤.煤自燃多源信息融合预警研究[D].西安科技大学,2012
[180]梁庆枫,颜虹.SQL Server 2005应用教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2010
[181]邵顺增.SQL Server 2005项目实践教程[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2010
[182]飞思科技产品研发中心.SQL Server 2000数据库和数据仓库[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2001
[183][英]Thomas Connolly, Carolyn Begg著,宁洪,等译.数据库系统-设计、实现与管理(第三版)[M].北京：电子工业出版社,2004
[184]李建义,主编.数据库原理及开发[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2005
[185]李英,编著.Visual C++编程与项目开发[M].上海：华东理工大学,2008
[186]李连营,李清泉,李汉武,等编著.基于MapX的GIS应用开发[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2003
[187]牛聚粉.基于MapX的煤与瓦斯突出预警技术研究[D].中国地质大学(北京),2009
[188]郭健,徐小东.利用PowerBuilder与MapX技术建立地籍管理信息系统[J].计算机应用与软件,2004,21(5)：57-60
[189]杨斌,何政伟,刘小勇,等.MapX与PowerBuilder集成技术在交通事故信息系统中的应用[J].测绘科学,2008,33(3)：178-194
[190]潘玉民,邓永红,张全柱.基于QPSO-RBF的瓦斯涌出量预测模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(12)：29-34
[191]林柏泉.安全学原理[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2002
[192]廖军.公路交通信息资源整合及系统实现研究[D].长安大学,2009
[193]许鑫,苏新宁,吴乃冈.高校共享数据中心平台的设计与实现[J].现代图书情报技术,2005,(6)：48-53
[194]王宁,王延章,叶鑫,等.一种基于数据中心的政府信息资源整合系统架构设计[J].计算机应用研究,2005,(9)：67-71
[195]李润求,施式亮,罗文柯.煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故特征与耦合规律研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(2)：69-74
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |