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南方共同市场经济一体化研究
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摘要
拉美经济一体化运动具有悠久历史,在“进口替代战略”的指导下,20世纪50-60年代以来的拉美一体化主要呈现“内向型”的特点,具有鲜明的保护主义色彩,各国为了保护本国市场高树贸易壁垒以限制进口。80年代末90年代初,伴随苏联解体和冷战结束以及经济全球化大潮的袭来,世界各国和各地区都在积极调整经济结构以适应生产和市场的全球化及一体化,“开放的地区主义”成为这一时期世界经济一体化运动中的新特点。拉美经委会也在1994年正式提出这一概念,认为“开放性”就在于反对过于排外的旧地区主义,强调成员资格的包容性,在这一思想下指导的拉美地区一体化将是一个包括次地区、地区、乃至西半球层面上的完全开放的一体化过程,与过去“内向型”一体化不同的是,它将因其“开放”性而带动地区产业结构进行调整和促进生产专业化,从而更好地进入国际市场。
     在拉美经委会看来,所谓“开放的地区主义”应该包括鼓励各国实现广泛的贸易自由化;鼓励实现共同外部关税,但也允许按照实际情况分阶段实施;在商品和服务部门实现广泛的市场自由化,但也允许在一些部门实施过渡性调整;为了将国与国之间贸易成本降到最低,应加快货币的可兑换进程等重要组成要素。随着古巴于1998年正式成为拉美一体化协会成员,拉美地区几乎所有国家都参与到区域一体化的进程中。综合20世纪90年代以来拉美一体化进程可以看出,“开放的地区主义”最大的特点就是开放性和多元化。这一时期,拉美国家不仅在区域内实现双边自由贸易的经济合作活动十分活跃,同时也出现了单个国家与次区域组织达成自由贸易协议的趋势。此外,一些拉美国家还重新组建新的区域经济组织,激发了次地区经济一体化发展的活力,南方共同市场就是其中一个成功范例。
     1991年3月26日,巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭和巴拉圭四国宣告南方共同市场的建立。随着贸易和金融领域的不断开放,自1990-1998年,南共市地区内贸易增长了5倍,在整个世界贸易中所占份额也从11%增至23%。然而也就在南共市经济持续增长时,1999年巴西雷亚尔危机和2001阿根廷经济危机的相继爆发给南共市以沉重打击,集团经济在此期间不断衰退,并在2003年几乎陷入停滞。伴随着世界经济形势的好转,南共市经济自2004年也开始“复苏”,在成员国间一直难以达成共识的地区货币一体化进程也由此获得推动。特别是随着2008年全球金融危机的爆发并持续恶化,南共市经济再次受到影响之后,阿根廷和巴西开始尝试在双边贸易中采取本币互换体系,并希望在南共市内部全面推行,以应对世界金融危机下美元贬值给地区经济体发展带来的巨大风险。
     总结南共市经济一体化发展进程可以看出,拉美“开放的地区主义”和经济全球化的时代背景赋予南方共同市场别具特色的一体化战略。首先、坚持建立深度的一体化。《亚松森条约》为南共市确定了从自由贸易区到关税同盟的详细发展阶段,除商品自由化外,还要逐步实现资金、服务、劳动力流动等方面的自由化。南共市目前的货币一体化进程虽然遇到诸多困难,但是依然稳步前进也反映了成员国要求建立深度一体化的决心。第二、经济一体化背后的政治性。鉴于国内经济的不稳定和高关税壁垒的存在,南共市成员国只建立自由贸易区的目标要更加现实,但是阿根廷和巴西通过相互协调最终依然决定建立共同市场。由此,南共市的建立很大程度上被认为并非仅仅是从成员国经济利益出发,而是从本质上解决巴西和阿根廷长期敌对情绪的一个政治决定,并被希望作为提升成员国在世界经济舞台发言权的有力“平台”。也因此南共市在解决成员国争端时倾向于通过政府间谈判,即“总统外交”解决,故南共市的内部事务和决策很容易受到成员国国内政治和政府更替的影响。第三、地区贸易的开放性,这也是20世纪90年代以来拉美经济一体化的主要特点,而南共市的表现尤为明显。南共市自成立以来便积极与智利、玻利维亚、秘鲁、墨西哥、委内瑞拉、安第斯共同体、中美洲一体化体系等拉美国家和区域经济组织签署自贸协议或就其进行谈判,这不仅积极推动了南美地区一体化进程,在整个西半球经济一体化进程中也发挥重要作用。特别是面对美国1990年提出创建美洲自由贸易区的构想后,虽然就南共市国家整体而言并不排斥美洲自由贸易区,但与美国在农产品等敏感问题上的分歧让双方很难达成妥协,美洲自由贸易谈判也因此于2006年陷入停滞。同时,它的“开放性”还体现在其与美洲外国家和地区的自贸区谈判。除了与欧盟的谈判仍在进行外,南方共同市场目前还与印度、韩国、南非关税同盟等亚非地区和国家也正在就建立自贸区进行谈判。随着中国于2008年成为美洲开发银行的成员国后,南共市与中国的经贸关系也逐渐密切。此外,南共市内部的贸易保护主义依然存在,并在世界经济形势出现恶化时有愈演愈烈之势,这也对南共市未来的“开放”程度有所影响。
     根据以上主要内容,论文除了序言和结语外共分五部分:第一章通过对拉美“开放的地区主义”理论背景、产生原因、主要内容、具体特点以及存在问题进行综合论述,从而深入分析经济全球化背景下拉美经济一体化运动的新特点;第二章在全面评述南方共同市场建立的背景和原因的基础上,进一步探讨其实行的经济一体化战略的主要内容和特点;第三章主要分析南方共同市场货币一体化进程及发展中所遇到的困难,指出虽然面临经济全球化,特别是金融全球化的风险和挑战,但实现区域货币合作将是南方共同市场实现经济一体化深化的重要一步,并在此基础上提出了未来几种货币联盟出现的可能性;第四章通过分析南美洲国家联盟的建立以及南方共同市场在美洲自由贸易区谈判中的地位和作用,主要探讨南方共同市场次地区一体化进程对于整个西半球地区经济一体化的重要影响;第五章通过分析南方共同市场与美洲地区外国家以及地区经济集团之间已经签署或正在谈判的自贸协议,从而进一步证明南方共同市场经济一体化战略的开放性特点。并且特别分析了中国与南共市国家以及整个拉美地区的经贸关系特点,提出未来中拉贸易中应该注意的问题和对策。在结语部分,则从经济全球化的背景下探讨南方共同市场的发展未来,并在此基础上对南方共同市场未来的深化和扩大中所遇到的问题和前景进行评述。
Latin American economic integration movement has long history. It mainly shows the character of "internal-oriented" under the guidance of "Import Substituted Strategy" in the1950s and1960s of the20th century, and has the distinct protectionism. Countries in Latin America set high trade barriers to restrict import in order to protect domestic market. With the end of the Cold War and the coming of economical globalization, all countries and regions actively adjusted their economic structure to adapt to the production and market globalization and integration during this period."Open Regionalism" has become the new feature of the economic integration movement in the world economy since then. Latin American economic committee proposed the concept of "Open Regionalism" in1994too. The openness would opposite to the exclusive feature of old regionalism, and need emphasize the comprehensive membership. The new economic integration of Latin America will be the completely open integration process which will include sub-region, region and even the western. Compared with the old "Import Substituted Strategy", the openness feature of the economic integration in Latin America will push the adjustment to regional industrial structure and promote the production of specialization so as to successfully enter the international market.
     Latin American economic committee think the "Open regionalism" should include some important element, like encourage all states should achieve extensive trade liberalization; establish common external tariff, simultaneously allow implement in stages according to actual situation; achieve extensive market liberalization in goods and services, meanwhile, also allow some departments of the implementation of transitional adjustment; and make the trade cost minimized between countries by the measures like currency convertibility. With Cuba became a member of
     Latin American Integration Association in1998, all countries in Latin America have almost participated in the regional integration process. According to the process of the regional integration in Latin in1990s, the typical feature of "Open Regionalism" is openness and diversity. These features mainly display more and more bilateral free trade area agreements were signed between Latin American countries, and a trend of a free trade agreement between countries and sub-regional organization. Furthermore, some Latin American countries established new regional economic organizations to promote the regional economic integration, the establishment of Mercosur is a typical example.
     Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay claimed the establishment of Mercosur in March26,1991. With the continuously open of trade and financial sector, Mercosur region trade grew five times from1990to1998, and increase the whole world trade share from11%to23%. However, during the Merocsur economic has been sustained growth, the successive eruption of Brazil Real Crisis of1999and Argentina Economic Crisis have given a heavy blow to Mercosur. Region was declining during this period, and nearly stagnated in2003. With the better global economic, Mercosur economy has also begun to be a recovery since2004. Especially region monetary integration which was difficult to be a consensus between member countries also gain a big boost. With the global financial crisis in2008and its deterioration in2009, Mercosur economy has been affected again. Argentina and Brazil began to try to take local currency exchange system in bilateral trade, and hope to push in Mercosur, in response to huge risks of the devalue of dollar under the world financial crisis to regional economic integration organization.
     "Open Regionalism" in Latin America and the time background of economic globalization have already given an unique economic integration strategy of Mercosur as we can see the economic integration development process of Mercosur. Firstly, Mercosur hope to establish a deep integration. The treaty of Asuncion has set a series targets from free trade area to customs union to Mercosur, except to commodity liberalization, and need also gradually realize the liberalization of capital, service, labor mobility etc. Although monetary integration process has encountered many difficulties currently, it reflects the determination of member countries to establish a deep economic integration when it has still gone forward.
     Secondly, the political character behind economic integration. It is to be more realistic that the establishment of a free trade area between the member countries of Mercosur, if only from an economic view like the domestic economic instability and high tariff barriers of existence. However, Argentina and Brazil have still decided to establish a common market finally in spite of these problems. So, Mercosur has always been considered not entirely from member countries economic interests, but a political determination essentially to solve a long-term hostility between Brazil and Argentina. At the same time, it has also been hope as a powerful "platform" in the world economic stage to express the advice of Mercosur. Therefore, Mercosur intend to solve conflicts of member countries by inter-governmental negotiations, namely so-called the solution of "President Diplomacy". Due to this, internal affairs and making decision in Mercosur are susceptible by domestic politics and the replacement of government of member countries.
     Thirdly, It emphasizes openness of the regional trade. It is the main feature of economic integration of Latin America in the1990S. Mercosur has actively negotiated and signed countries and economic integration organizations in Latin America, like Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Mexico, Venezuela and AC etc. It is not only to promote economic integration in South America, but also has an important role in the process of economic integration in Western Hemisphere. Although when it faced the proposal of "The enterprise for the American Initiative" from USA, Mercosur doesn't object to establish FTAA. It has already stopped in2006because of agricultural dispute and other sensitive issues in the negotiation between them. In addition, the openness of the economic integration strategy has reflected negotiations of FTA between other countries and regions outside America and Mercosur. Now, Mercosur is negotiating FTA with India, South Korea, and SACU, etc. The economic relationship between Mercosur and China will be moved forward after China has become the one of IDB member countries in2008.
     According to above the main contents, this dissertation is divided into five parts besides the preface and the conclusion. The first chapter mainly analyses the open regionalism in Latin America through its theoretical background and reasons, the main content and specific characteristics, existing problems. Furthermore, it deeply analyses of the new feature of Latin America regional economic integration movement under economic globalization. The second chapter will further discuss the economic integration strategy and characteristics of Merocsur, on the basis of analysis to the underground and reasons which Mercosur was established. The third chapter basically analyses the monetary integration process and the difficulties which Mercosur met. It points out that, although economic globalization, especially financial globalization of risk and challenges, regional monetary cooperation will be very important step which realize the economic integration deeply to Mercosur. Moreover, it also proposes several possibilities about monetary union in the future.
     The fourth chapter mainly discusses the important impact of the process of the sub-regional economic integration of Mercosur to the regional integration in western hemisphere, through the analysis to the establishment of UNASUR and Mercosur's import position and effects in the negotiation of FTAA. The fifth chapter through the analysis to the agreements which are negotiating or has been signed between Mercosur with other countries and regional group outside America, so further proves the openness of the regional integration strategy. Especially, it analyses the features of the economic and trade relationship between China with Mercosur and the whole Latin America. Finally, it points some problems which the trade between China with Latin America in the future need to be noticed, and some solutions. In conclusion, this chapter will explore the future of Mercosur under the background of economic globalization, and gives some comments due to the difficulties and problems from the deepening and expansion of Mercosur.
引文
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    1 南方共同市场,西班牙语全称为Mercado Comun del Sur,简称为Mercosur,因其地理分布形状也被称为南锥体市场。南共市自1991年成立以来至今已经先后接纳智利(1996年)、玻利维亚(1997年)、秘鲁(2003年)、厄瓜多尔(2004年)和哥伦比亚(2004年)等国为其联系国。2006年7月,南共市成员国签署议定书,决定吸纳委内瑞拉为正式成员。
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