多状态多模式受电弓机械系统混合可靠性模型研究
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摘要
当今世界,高速铁路迅速发展。我国通过新建快速客运专线、大力加强既有线路的技术改造,大幅度提高了列车的运行速度。但是随之而来的弓网相互作用加剧,受电弓在规定使用寿命内出现裂纹、断裂、磨损等严重故障,导致高速列车维护成本增加,弓网使用可靠度降低,影响列车的正常运行和行车安全。因此开展受电弓可靠性研究具有很强的理论意义和工程背景。而受电弓可靠性研究既不同于传统机械设计方法,也不同于传统电子系统可靠性理论方法,研究表明,高速运营的受电弓机械系统具有多状态、多模式、模式相关、部件相关等诸多特点。目前少有研究者对受电弓可靠性展开研究,若沿用传统的二值独立假设的可靠性研究方法忽略受电弓系统多状态多模式的特征,又会导致忽略不同失效模式之间的相关性以及忽略功能退化和故障隐患状态,导致误差过大,甚至造成危及安全的事故。因此本文针对受电弓系统的多状态多模式特征,基于混合理论,开展了受电弓设计、使用、储备和维修等四个阶段的可靠性研究工作。
受到国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)项目“高速列车安全服役关键基础问题研究”(2007CB714703),“十一五”国家科技支撑计划“中国高速列车关键技术研究与装备研制”,“优秀国家重点实验室研究项目”(50823004)等项目的资助,本文主要开展了以下几方面的研究工作：
(1)详细论述了国内外机械系统可靠性研究的历史和现状,受电弓机械系统可靠性研究中的几个关键因素,明确了受电弓系统可靠性研究的意义和方向。
(2)定义新的多状态多模式机械系统,并给出相应的表示方法；引入混合理论的定义、基本理论和性质,介绍几类经典的混合分布；为后面受电弓机械系统可靠性研究提供理论基础。
(3)建立了受电弓部件静应力计算方法,用多状态多模式应力强化系数修正静应力计算结果获得了多状态多模式部件静应力；在计算得到多状态多模式静应力的基础上建立部件可靠性安全系数设计方法,以及基于可靠性的部件截面优化算法。把多状态多模式受电弓部件静强度可靠性设计方法应用于我国自主开发的某高速受电弓,证明此方法的有效性。
(4)建立了失效模式相关的受电弓部件动应力计算方法,获得了多状态多模式部件的动应力；建立考虑模式相关的部件寿命可靠性模型,预测给定可靠度的部件寿命和给定寿命的部件可靠度。比较受电弓单模式两状态部件可靠性预测结果和多状态多模式部件可靠性预测结果表明,多状态多模式寿命可靠性预测模型给出的预测结果更符合线路运营统计结果。
(5)考虑部件相关性,建立了多状态多模式串联、并联以及储备系统可靠性模型。比较部件独立假设的系统可靠性预测结果和部件相关的系统可靠性预测结果,考虑部件失效相关的可靠性预测方法更符合实际。
(6)根据线路运营中受电弓失效数据建立了多状态多模式受电弓部件寿命分布估计方法；建立多状态多模式受电弓系统故障树理论,能够分析系统失效的原因,以及部件状态退化可能导致的危害；建立多状态多模式年龄更换策略,以及基于Weibull分布的时间检测策略,制订受电弓部件的更换策略和重点部件的检测策略。
In the world, High-speed railway has developed rapidly. By building the rapid railway for passengers and transforming the existing railway, the train speed was improved greatly. At the same time the vibration between pantograph and catenary was more serious, and there were carck, fracture, wear and tear in the parts of the pantograph. The serious failure of the parts resulted into the maintenance cost improvement, the reliability decreasment, and train in danger. Therefore the study on reliability of pantograph is necessary. The traditional study method about reliability is based on the assument of the independent parts with only two states. And it isn't fit with pantographs with multi-state and multi-mode parts. New methods based on multi-state and multi-mode parts were put forward which can design the section, predict the reliability and life, predict the time of maintenance.
Funded by the Natural Science Foundation Committee of China (No.51075341), the11th Five-Year Plan of National Science and Technology Support (2009BAG12A01) and the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB711100),studies in this paper mainly centered on various aspects below..
(1) Studies on reliability of mechanical system in the past and now in the world are reviewed. The key problems on the reliability of pantograph was described, and the significance and research focus of pantograph are indecated.
(2) A new definition of multi-state and multi-mode system is brought forward, and its drawing method is given; The mixture theory is introduced; The definition and the theory are the base of the reliability analysis of pantographs.
(3) A multi-state and multi-mode static stress model is established and the results of the model are the inputtment of another model about prediction the static reliability and section size of the parts of pantograph. These models are used in a high-speed pantograph, and it is available.
(4) A multi-state and multi-mode dynamic stress model is established and the results of the model are the inputment of another model about prediction the life reliability in which the relativity of the multiple modes is considered. The results of the sigle mode model and the multiple mode model are compared and the second result is more reseanable.
(5) The multi-state and multi-mode reliability prediction models about series structure, parallel structure and reserve structure are put forward. In these models the relativity of the parts is considered and an example improves the reasonable of these models. And the better reserve structure is gotten.
(6) The life distributions of the multi-state and multi-mode parts are gotten based on the datas in the running train; A new states tree is put forward to analyze the reason of failure and the hazard of the state; The multi-state and multi-mode replacement policy and detection strategy are established to determine the replacement time and detection time.
受到国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)项目“高速列车安全服役关键基础问题研究”(2007CB714703),“十一五”国家科技支撑计划“中国高速列车关键技术研究与装备研制”,“优秀国家重点实验室研究项目”(50823004)等项目的资助,本文主要开展了以下几方面的研究工作：
(1)详细论述了国内外机械系统可靠性研究的历史和现状,受电弓机械系统可靠性研究中的几个关键因素,明确了受电弓系统可靠性研究的意义和方向。
(2)定义新的多状态多模式机械系统,并给出相应的表示方法；引入混合理论的定义、基本理论和性质,介绍几类经典的混合分布；为后面受电弓机械系统可靠性研究提供理论基础。
(3)建立了受电弓部件静应力计算方法,用多状态多模式应力强化系数修正静应力计算结果获得了多状态多模式部件静应力；在计算得到多状态多模式静应力的基础上建立部件可靠性安全系数设计方法,以及基于可靠性的部件截面优化算法。把多状态多模式受电弓部件静强度可靠性设计方法应用于我国自主开发的某高速受电弓,证明此方法的有效性。
(4)建立了失效模式相关的受电弓部件动应力计算方法,获得了多状态多模式部件的动应力；建立考虑模式相关的部件寿命可靠性模型,预测给定可靠度的部件寿命和给定寿命的部件可靠度。比较受电弓单模式两状态部件可靠性预测结果和多状态多模式部件可靠性预测结果表明,多状态多模式寿命可靠性预测模型给出的预测结果更符合线路运营统计结果。
(5)考虑部件相关性,建立了多状态多模式串联、并联以及储备系统可靠性模型。比较部件独立假设的系统可靠性预测结果和部件相关的系统可靠性预测结果,考虑部件失效相关的可靠性预测方法更符合实际。
(6)根据线路运营中受电弓失效数据建立了多状态多模式受电弓部件寿命分布估计方法；建立多状态多模式受电弓系统故障树理论,能够分析系统失效的原因,以及部件状态退化可能导致的危害；建立多状态多模式年龄更换策略,以及基于Weibull分布的时间检测策略,制订受电弓部件的更换策略和重点部件的检测策略。
In the world, High-speed railway has developed rapidly. By building the rapid railway for passengers and transforming the existing railway, the train speed was improved greatly. At the same time the vibration between pantograph and catenary was more serious, and there were carck, fracture, wear and tear in the parts of the pantograph. The serious failure of the parts resulted into the maintenance cost improvement, the reliability decreasment, and train in danger. Therefore the study on reliability of pantograph is necessary. The traditional study method about reliability is based on the assument of the independent parts with only two states. And it isn't fit with pantographs with multi-state and multi-mode parts. New methods based on multi-state and multi-mode parts were put forward which can design the section, predict the reliability and life, predict the time of maintenance.
Funded by the Natural Science Foundation Committee of China (No.51075341), the11th Five-Year Plan of National Science and Technology Support (2009BAG12A01) and the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB711100),studies in this paper mainly centered on various aspects below..
(1) Studies on reliability of mechanical system in the past and now in the world are reviewed. The key problems on the reliability of pantograph was described, and the significance and research focus of pantograph are indecated.
(2) A new definition of multi-state and multi-mode system is brought forward, and its drawing method is given; The mixture theory is introduced; The definition and the theory are the base of the reliability analysis of pantographs.
(3) A multi-state and multi-mode static stress model is established and the results of the model are the inputtment of another model about prediction the static reliability and section size of the parts of pantograph. These models are used in a high-speed pantograph, and it is available.
(4) A multi-state and multi-mode dynamic stress model is established and the results of the model are the inputment of another model about prediction the life reliability in which the relativity of the multiple modes is considered. The results of the sigle mode model and the multiple mode model are compared and the second result is more reseanable.
(5) The multi-state and multi-mode reliability prediction models about series structure, parallel structure and reserve structure are put forward. In these models the relativity of the parts is considered and an example improves the reasonable of these models. And the better reserve structure is gotten.
(6) The life distributions of the multi-state and multi-mode parts are gotten based on the datas in the running train; A new states tree is put forward to analyze the reason of failure and the hazard of the state; The multi-state and multi-mode replacement policy and detection strategy are established to determine the replacement time and detection time.
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