中国区域金融业发展非均衡性研究
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摘要
金融业作为经济发展的内生变量和核心要素，在经济中的地位越来越重要，特别是在区域发展中，已经成为决定区域核心竞争力的关键因素。然而，我国区域金融业发展呈现出明显的非均衡性现象，在一定程度上加大了区域之间的差异，也阻碍了区域经济的协调发展。区域金融业非均衡发展现象也引起了国内外学者的关注。西方学者重点关注区域金融货币政策效应以及区域金融资源配置等问题，国内学者则倾向于关注区域金融业发展对区域经济增长的影响，但由于忽视了空间的依赖性、异质性以及研究尺度狭窄等问题，相关研究仍需完善和突破。在区域经济学理论研究框架下，以区域发展理论、新经济地理学理论为基础，选择了区域视角研究和解释区域金融产业集聚、收敛等非均衡现象以及地理分布特征，这对深入研究中国区域金融产业发展的非均衡性具有重要的理论支撑。空间经济学理论重点研究了经济发展的空间分布特征、变化规律、空间区位选择以及空间地理位置和经济发展的关系。因此，本文以区域发展理论、新经济地理学理论、空间经济学、产业经济学等相关理论为基础，以空间计量经济学等为研究方法，结合我国区域金融业非均衡发展的现状分析，从多角度研究探讨了我国金融产业非均衡发展特征、规律、影响因素等方面内容，以期对今后我国区域金融业发展问题研究提供一定的参考价值。
本文第1章以及第2章主要对非均衡理论、区域空间结构理论、金融发展理论、收敛理论等基础理论及相关文献进行梳理和总结，多方面、多角度论证分析非均衡发展、金融发展、空间经济学等理论及其相互关系，并试图建立非均衡金融产业发展一般理论分析框架，为深入、系统地研究我国金融产业非均衡发展问题提供理论支撑。
本文第3章至第7章对区域金融产业发展差异性、集聚、收敛等问题进行了实证分析。首先，分析和总结了我国区域金融产业包括银行业、证券业、保险业的非均衡发展现状及特征，并基于相关学术理论成果以及数据的可获得性，采用31个省市1997~2011年的面板数据，对我国区域金融业发展非均衡问题进行实证研究，从中测度出我国区域金融业发展差异性的变动趋势及影响因素。结果表明，我国区域金融产业发展已经显现出显著的非均衡发展特征。区域经济发展水平的差异使金融业发展差异化加剧。经济基础对我国区域金融的发展具有显著的正向促进作用。我国各省域之间经济发展的差异性也造成了各省域金融发展的差异性。其次，实证分析了我国区域金融产业效率的非均衡性问题。采用我国31个省市数据，通过Malmquist指数与三阶段DEA方法测算区域金融业的效率和变化规律。结果表明，我国金融业发展存在显著的区域失衡的特征，两极分化现象十分严重，从而造成我国区域经济发展差异性。再次，对我国金融产业集聚现状及影响因素进行空间计量分析。利用2000~2011年中国31个省域的金融集聚指标计算Moran’I指数，分析金融业集聚的空间自相关性，同时对金融产业集聚的现状及影响因素进行实证分析。结果证实了我国八大经济区2000~2011年金融业集聚情况具有明显的差异性。我国31个省市之间确实存在着明显的空间集聚现象，并且区域间的差异较为显著，而不是表现出完全随机的状态。31个省域金融产业集聚程度在地理空间的分布上存在着显著的依赖性和异质性，并且在地理空间分布上的依赖性呈现加深趋势。然后，本文对我国区域金融产业收敛性进行了空间计量分析。通过变异系数进一步分析我国区域金融业发展呈现出的阶段性特征，同时运用混合回归模型、固定效应模型等针对1978~2011年、1978~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2011年我国区域金融业发展的收敛趋势进行了实证分析。研究发现，在存在空间固定效应和时间固定效应下，我国区域金融业发展存在显著的绝对收敛趋势，空间差异和地理邻近性显著的影响着区域金融业的发展。同时，本文还基于Panel-VAR模型，通过选取1997~2010年中国31个省市的相关数据，利用模型实证分析了我国区域金融业发展宏观经济增长效应的区域差异性。结果显示，金融业发展与经济增长之间存在着明确的双向互动关系。金融业发展和经济增长之间的互动关系是非对称性的。从区域宏观经济效应差异性角度看，三大区域经济增长对金融业发展的贡献率具有较大的差异性。由于金融发展在区域之间存在着非均衡性，各地区金融业发展与经济发展的相互关系也存在着一定的差异性。
最后，通过上述理论和实证分析结果得出结论，并依据结论就如何统筹规划区域金融业发展、提高区域金融业协调发展等问题提出对策建议：确立并完善区域金融业发展的总体政策目标；实行差别化区域金融业发展调控政策；进一步拓宽市场融资渠道；政府适当进行干预；提升区域金融业效率，加大金融业对外开放程度。
The financial industry as the economic development of endogenous and core factors, moreand more important position in the economy, especially in the development of the region, hasbecome the critical factor of regional core competitiveness. However, the development of regionalfinancial industry in China presents the obvious non balance phenomenon, to a certain extent thedifferences between regions, but also hindered the coordinated development of regional economy.The non balanced development of regional financial industry phenomenon has also aroused theattention of scholars at home and abroad. The western scholars focus on the regional financial andmonetary policy effects and regional allocation of financial resources and other issues, domesticscholars tend to focus on regional financial development impact on regional economic growth.From the research on the regional financial industry Chinese unbalanced development theory andempirical existing, the dependence on scale, heterogeneity and narrow issues neglected space,related research still needs to be improved and breakthrough. In the framework of regionaleconomic theory, regional development theory, new economic geography theory through theresearch of regional perspective and interpretation of the regional financial industryagglomeration, convergence of disequilibrium and geographical distribution, the in-depthdevelopment of Chinese regional financial industry has important theoretical and practicalsignificance of difference. The theory of spatial economics research focus on the relationshipbetween economic development and spatial distribution characteristics, variation, spatial locationselection and spatial location and economic development. Therefore, based on the regionaldevelopment theory, new economic geography, spatial economics, industrial economics and otherrelated theory, research method using spatial econometrics, combining with the current situationof the regional finance industry analysis of the non balanced development, from the multi anglestudy the financial industry of our country non balanced development characteristic, regularity,influence factors and other aspects, in order to provide certain reference value to the research onthe development of the regional finance industry of our country in the future.
In the first chapter and the second chapter summarizes the theory of non equilibrium,regional spatial structure theory, financial development theory, the convergence theory and relatedliterature, demonstrate multi aspect, multi angle analysis of the non balanced development,financial development, spatial economics theory and their relations, and tries to establish the nongeneral analytical framework the theory of balanced development of the financial industry,in-depth, systematic study of the financial industry in China to provide theoretical support for thenon balanced development problem.
The third chapter to7empirical analysis is the main method, in-depth study on thedevelopment of the regional financial difference of industry, agglomeration, convergence. First ofall, the analysis and summary of the non balanced development situation and characteristics ofChina's regional financial industry, including banking, securities, insurance, and based on therelevant academic achievements as well as the availability of data, the panel data of31provincesduring1997-2011, on China's regional financial industry to conduct an empirical Study on the nonbalanced development the problem, the factors change trend difference and influence thedevelopment of regional financial industry of our country from the measure. The results show that,whether from the national, regional or city wide perspective, the development of China's financialindustry has shown a significant non balanced development characteristic. The difference ofregional economic development level of the development of financial industry differentiationintensified. Regional differences in financial development in China is mainly due to thedevelopment of the financial industry of eight regional imbalance. Economic base has significantpositive effect on regional financial development in china. The difference between the provincesof China's economic development has caused the differences of provincial financial development.Secondly, the empirical analysis of the problem of imbalance of efficiency of China's regionalfinancial industry. Using the data of31provinces and cities in China, efficiency and changesthrough the Malmquist index and DEA three stage method of regional financial industry, and theeight economic regions were compared, to provide experience better for promoting the overalldevelopment of China's financial industry. The results show that, the development of China'sfinancial industry has characteristics of regional imbalance significantly, the polarizationphenomenon is very serious, which cause the differences of regional economic development inchina. Again, on the financial industry agglomeration in China present situation and influencefactors of spatial econometric analysis. Using the financial agglomeration index2000-2011Chinese31provincial calculation of Moran 'I index, analysis of spatial correlation of financialindustry agglomeration, status and influence factors of the financial industry agglomeration ofempirical analysis. The results confirmed our country eight economic zones2000-2011years offinancial industry agglomeration has obvious difference. Between the31provinces and cities inour country exists the phenomenon of cluster of clear space, and more significant regionaldifferences, rather than show completely random state. The distribution of31provincial financialindustry agglomeration degree in geography space have remarkable dependence and heterogeneity,and spatial distribution of dependence shows deepening trend. Next, on the convergence ofChina's regional financial industry has carried on the spatial econometric analysis. The coefficientof variation for further analysis of the characteristics of the development stage of regionalfinancial industry in China shows the trend of convergence at the same time, using the mixed regression model, fixed effect model for1978~2011years,1978~1990years,1991~2000years,2001~2011years of development of the regional finance industry of our country in the empiricaland correlation analysis. Study found that, in the presence of spatial fixed effect and time fixedeffects, the development of regional financial industry in our country has the absoluteconvergence trend is obvious, the development of the financial industry trend is influenced greatlyby the development scale of regional financial industry, spatial differences and geographicalproximity significantly affects the development trend of regional finance. At the same time, basedon the Panel-VAR model, the related data from1997-2010years Chinese31provinces, usingempirical estimates of the regional difference of macro economic growth effect of regionalfinancial development in industry of our country. The results show, the two-way interactionclearly exists between financial development and economic growth. The interactive relationshipbetween financial development and economic growth is non symmetry. From the point ofdifference between the macroeconomic effects of the regional perspective, the development ofthree major regional economic growth on financial industry contribution rate has great difference.Because of the financial development has the imbalance in regional development, relationshipbetween financial development and economic sector in the region also exist certain differences.
Finally, through the theoretical and empirical analysis results, and on the basis of theconclusions on how to co-ordinate the planning of regional financial development, improve thecoordination development of regional financial industry, puts forward some countermeasures andsuggestions: establish and improve overall policy objectives of development of regional financialindustry; implement the differential regional financial industry regulatory policy to furtherbroaden the financing channels; appropriate government intervention;; increase the efficiency ofregional financial industry, increase the financial industry opening.
本文第1章以及第2章主要对非均衡理论、区域空间结构理论、金融发展理论、收敛理论等基础理论及相关文献进行梳理和总结，多方面、多角度论证分析非均衡发展、金融发展、空间经济学等理论及其相互关系，并试图建立非均衡金融产业发展一般理论分析框架，为深入、系统地研究我国金融产业非均衡发展问题提供理论支撑。
本文第3章至第7章对区域金融产业发展差异性、集聚、收敛等问题进行了实证分析。首先，分析和总结了我国区域金融产业包括银行业、证券业、保险业的非均衡发展现状及特征，并基于相关学术理论成果以及数据的可获得性，采用31个省市1997~2011年的面板数据，对我国区域金融业发展非均衡问题进行实证研究，从中测度出我国区域金融业发展差异性的变动趋势及影响因素。结果表明，我国区域金融产业发展已经显现出显著的非均衡发展特征。区域经济发展水平的差异使金融业发展差异化加剧。经济基础对我国区域金融的发展具有显著的正向促进作用。我国各省域之间经济发展的差异性也造成了各省域金融发展的差异性。其次，实证分析了我国区域金融产业效率的非均衡性问题。采用我国31个省市数据，通过Malmquist指数与三阶段DEA方法测算区域金融业的效率和变化规律。结果表明，我国金融业发展存在显著的区域失衡的特征，两极分化现象十分严重，从而造成我国区域经济发展差异性。再次，对我国金融产业集聚现状及影响因素进行空间计量分析。利用2000~2011年中国31个省域的金融集聚指标计算Moran’I指数，分析金融业集聚的空间自相关性，同时对金融产业集聚的现状及影响因素进行实证分析。结果证实了我国八大经济区2000~2011年金融业集聚情况具有明显的差异性。我国31个省市之间确实存在着明显的空间集聚现象，并且区域间的差异较为显著，而不是表现出完全随机的状态。31个省域金融产业集聚程度在地理空间的分布上存在着显著的依赖性和异质性，并且在地理空间分布上的依赖性呈现加深趋势。然后，本文对我国区域金融产业收敛性进行了空间计量分析。通过变异系数进一步分析我国区域金融业发展呈现出的阶段性特征，同时运用混合回归模型、固定效应模型等针对1978~2011年、1978~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2011年我国区域金融业发展的收敛趋势进行了实证分析。研究发现，在存在空间固定效应和时间固定效应下，我国区域金融业发展存在显著的绝对收敛趋势，空间差异和地理邻近性显著的影响着区域金融业的发展。同时，本文还基于Panel-VAR模型，通过选取1997~2010年中国31个省市的相关数据，利用模型实证分析了我国区域金融业发展宏观经济增长效应的区域差异性。结果显示，金融业发展与经济增长之间存在着明确的双向互动关系。金融业发展和经济增长之间的互动关系是非对称性的。从区域宏观经济效应差异性角度看，三大区域经济增长对金融业发展的贡献率具有较大的差异性。由于金融发展在区域之间存在着非均衡性，各地区金融业发展与经济发展的相互关系也存在着一定的差异性。
最后，通过上述理论和实证分析结果得出结论，并依据结论就如何统筹规划区域金融业发展、提高区域金融业协调发展等问题提出对策建议：确立并完善区域金融业发展的总体政策目标；实行差别化区域金融业发展调控政策；进一步拓宽市场融资渠道；政府适当进行干预；提升区域金融业效率，加大金融业对外开放程度。
The financial industry as the economic development of endogenous and core factors, moreand more important position in the economy, especially in the development of the region, hasbecome the critical factor of regional core competitiveness. However, the development of regionalfinancial industry in China presents the obvious non balance phenomenon, to a certain extent thedifferences between regions, but also hindered the coordinated development of regional economy.The non balanced development of regional financial industry phenomenon has also aroused theattention of scholars at home and abroad. The western scholars focus on the regional financial andmonetary policy effects and regional allocation of financial resources and other issues, domesticscholars tend to focus on regional financial development impact on regional economic growth.From the research on the regional financial industry Chinese unbalanced development theory andempirical existing, the dependence on scale, heterogeneity and narrow issues neglected space,related research still needs to be improved and breakthrough. In the framework of regionaleconomic theory, regional development theory, new economic geography theory through theresearch of regional perspective and interpretation of the regional financial industryagglomeration, convergence of disequilibrium and geographical distribution, the in-depthdevelopment of Chinese regional financial industry has important theoretical and practicalsignificance of difference. The theory of spatial economics research focus on the relationshipbetween economic development and spatial distribution characteristics, variation, spatial locationselection and spatial location and economic development. Therefore, based on the regionaldevelopment theory, new economic geography, spatial economics, industrial economics and otherrelated theory, research method using spatial econometrics, combining with the current situationof the regional finance industry analysis of the non balanced development, from the multi anglestudy the financial industry of our country non balanced development characteristic, regularity,influence factors and other aspects, in order to provide certain reference value to the research onthe development of the regional finance industry of our country in the future.
In the first chapter and the second chapter summarizes the theory of non equilibrium,regional spatial structure theory, financial development theory, the convergence theory and relatedliterature, demonstrate multi aspect, multi angle analysis of the non balanced development,financial development, spatial economics theory and their relations, and tries to establish the nongeneral analytical framework the theory of balanced development of the financial industry,in-depth, systematic study of the financial industry in China to provide theoretical support for thenon balanced development problem.
The third chapter to7empirical analysis is the main method, in-depth study on thedevelopment of the regional financial difference of industry, agglomeration, convergence. First ofall, the analysis and summary of the non balanced development situation and characteristics ofChina's regional financial industry, including banking, securities, insurance, and based on therelevant academic achievements as well as the availability of data, the panel data of31provincesduring1997-2011, on China's regional financial industry to conduct an empirical Study on the nonbalanced development the problem, the factors change trend difference and influence thedevelopment of regional financial industry of our country from the measure. The results show that,whether from the national, regional or city wide perspective, the development of China's financialindustry has shown a significant non balanced development characteristic. The difference ofregional economic development level of the development of financial industry differentiationintensified. Regional differences in financial development in China is mainly due to thedevelopment of the financial industry of eight regional imbalance. Economic base has significantpositive effect on regional financial development in china. The difference between the provincesof China's economic development has caused the differences of provincial financial development.Secondly, the empirical analysis of the problem of imbalance of efficiency of China's regionalfinancial industry. Using the data of31provinces and cities in China, efficiency and changesthrough the Malmquist index and DEA three stage method of regional financial industry, and theeight economic regions were compared, to provide experience better for promoting the overalldevelopment of China's financial industry. The results show that, the development of China'sfinancial industry has characteristics of regional imbalance significantly, the polarizationphenomenon is very serious, which cause the differences of regional economic development inchina. Again, on the financial industry agglomeration in China present situation and influencefactors of spatial econometric analysis. Using the financial agglomeration index2000-2011Chinese31provincial calculation of Moran 'I index, analysis of spatial correlation of financialindustry agglomeration, status and influence factors of the financial industry agglomeration ofempirical analysis. The results confirmed our country eight economic zones2000-2011years offinancial industry agglomeration has obvious difference. Between the31provinces and cities inour country exists the phenomenon of cluster of clear space, and more significant regionaldifferences, rather than show completely random state. The distribution of31provincial financialindustry agglomeration degree in geography space have remarkable dependence and heterogeneity,and spatial distribution of dependence shows deepening trend. Next, on the convergence ofChina's regional financial industry has carried on the spatial econometric analysis. The coefficientof variation for further analysis of the characteristics of the development stage of regionalfinancial industry in China shows the trend of convergence at the same time, using the mixed regression model, fixed effect model for1978~2011years,1978~1990years,1991~2000years,2001~2011years of development of the regional finance industry of our country in the empiricaland correlation analysis. Study found that, in the presence of spatial fixed effect and time fixedeffects, the development of regional financial industry in our country has the absoluteconvergence trend is obvious, the development of the financial industry trend is influenced greatlyby the development scale of regional financial industry, spatial differences and geographicalproximity significantly affects the development trend of regional finance. At the same time, basedon the Panel-VAR model, the related data from1997-2010years Chinese31provinces, usingempirical estimates of the regional difference of macro economic growth effect of regionalfinancial development in industry of our country. The results show, the two-way interactionclearly exists between financial development and economic growth. The interactive relationshipbetween financial development and economic growth is non symmetry. From the point ofdifference between the macroeconomic effects of the regional perspective, the development ofthree major regional economic growth on financial industry contribution rate has great difference.Because of the financial development has the imbalance in regional development, relationshipbetween financial development and economic sector in the region also exist certain differences.
Finally, through the theoretical and empirical analysis results, and on the basis of theconclusions on how to co-ordinate the planning of regional financial development, improve thecoordination development of regional financial industry, puts forward some countermeasures andsuggestions: establish and improve overall policy objectives of development of regional financialindustry; implement the differential regional financial industry regulatory policy to furtherbroaden the financing channels; appropriate government intervention;; increase the efficiency ofregional financial industry, increase the financial industry opening.
引文
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