金融发展与出口结构关系研究
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摘要
传统国际贸易理论认为，国家之间的资源禀赋差异以及技术差异构成一个国家的比较优势。当国家之间不存在资源禀赋与技术差异时，融资成本的差异将会对一国的比较优势产生影响。比较优势通过资源的重新配置决定一国在国际贸易中的分工地位，进而影响一国的对外贸易结构。一国金融发展水平的高低作为一种比较优势，也能促进贸易结构的优化和调整。金融发展对分工模式、生产模式以及出口结构的调整有着重要意义。
根据比较优势原理，中国以劳动密集型产品出口为主，资本技术密集型产品出口增长缓慢。与此同时，传统劳动密集型产业的生产技术缺乏创新，导致中国局限于具有比较优势的传统产业，难以转变现行的贸易模式。如何提升贸易结构，寻找新的比较优势成为“中国制造”面临的一大难题。全球金融危机后，中国在外部需求减弱的条件下如何实现出口结构的调整与优化将是中国经济能否实现转型的重要因素。随着经济体制改革的深入，中国的金融发展取得显著成效，金融改革不断深化，金融体系逐步完善，金融工具日益丰富，金融市场的广度和深度不断提高。但是与贸易发展比较，中国的金融发展相对滞后。在经济转型的背景下，促进金融发展对出口结构的转变具有重要意义。因此，中国金融市场化改革将是出口结构调整过程中至关重要的一环。
基于对以上问题的思考，本文首先对全球主要贸易国家的金融发展与贸易结构相关关系进行初步探讨，得出一般性结论，即无论是金融发展总体水平还是金融中介与金融市场发展水平，其对一国出口结构均有显著积极影响。与此同时，从金融结构与出口结构之间关系来看，金融市场为主导的金融结构更有利于一国出口结构的升级与转型。
其次，本文对以往学者的相关理论研究进行了归纳和梳理，并在此基础上对模型进行修正和拓展，认为金融发展水平的提高能够促使资本密集型产品出口增加。金融体系效率和质量提高，导致资本密集型产品相对价格下降，产量增加，而劳动密集型产品的相对价格上升，产量下降。在开放条件下，表现为资本密集型产品出口的增加，劳动密集型产品出口下降。因此，金融发展水平的提高会促使一国资本密集型产品在出口贸易中比重增加，进而达到优化出口结构的效果。
再次，在理论模型建立的基础上，通过构建金融发展水平衡量指标与出口结构指标，选取不同的实证方法对这一结论进行检验并得出相应结论。在第四章中，分别采用静态面板和动态面板数据模型的广义矩估计方法考察金融发展对出口结构的影响。结果显示，金融发展对出口结构影响的内生性问题不容忽视，在强调金融发展影响作用时还需考虑金融结构的影响作用。金融发展对一国出口结构有显著影响，一国金融发展水平的提高对出口结构的调整与升级有着积极的推动作用，且金融发展对出口结构的影响具有内生性；一国的金融结构对其资本密集型产品出口也有显著影响，以金融中介为主导的金融结构对资本密集型产品出口存在抑制作用，而以金融市场为主导的金融结构则能够促进资本密集型产品出口。因此，在一国出口结构转型与升级的过程中，内生性问题和金融中介与市场的相对发展将会产生重要影响。
在第五章中，采用面板VAR模型考察不同金融发展指标对各个水平出口结构的冲击影响效果。结果表明，当前中国出口企业的融资模式以金融中介为主，金融中介的发展最有利于低融资依赖行业出口结构的发展，但并不利于中国出口结构由低水平向中高水平发展。同时，这一融资模式也决定了金融市场对中国出口结构的冲击影响不显著。就金融发展与经济增长之间关系及影响而言，金融市场的发展对经济增长的稳定发展更有利。
在第六章中，通过面板门槛数据模型的设定与检验得出金融发展对出口结构的影响存在门槛效应的结论。重点考察了股市发展、金融中介发展、金融发展以及金融结构分别与低、中、高融资依赖行业出口结构以及出口结构总体水平之间的相关关系。分别选取伙伴国GDP增长率、伙伴国GDP总量和伙伴国人均GDP作为模型的门槛变量进行面板门槛效果检验和模型估计。股市发展、金融中介发展、金融发展和金融结构对出口结构总体水平的提升均有积极的促进作用。对于细分的低、中、高融资依赖行业出口结构来说，以上四类金融发展指标对高融资依赖行业出口结构的提升有显著正向影响，对低融资依赖行业出口结构有显著负向影响，对中等融资依赖行业出口结构的影响有正有负。这说明，金融发展能够促进出口结构由低级向高级转型，有利于出口结构的调整和升级。
本文得出金融发展水平的提高能够改善一国贸易结构的结论，这一结论为中国对外贸易结构的调整与转型提供了新思路，那就是必须重视金融发展的重要作用。深化金融体制改革，防止虚拟经济过度膨胀，避免金融发展偏离实体经济需求，将优化金融资源配置效率作为金融体系建设的根本目标，使金融发展更好地支持实体经济的发展。
金融改革是中国经济改革的重要内容。以金融体制改革引导中国经济转型，促进经济由高速增长到平稳发展是未来中国经济发展的重要目标。中国现有的金融体系以间接融资为主，能够快速大量聚集社会资本，但这种在传统经济发展方式下形成的金融体制难以满足现阶段经济转型的要求，长此以往，现行的金融体制将十分不利于实体经济的发展，并拖累经济转型的实现。
随着国家“十二五”规划的深入推进，中国已经步入经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变的加速轨道，转型已经成为当前国家发展的重大议题。处于现代经济核心地位的金融行业首当其冲，金融转型势在必行。健全建立和完善金融体系，使之更好地服务于经济转型，是当前中国金融发展的首要目标。随着中国经济发展方式的不断调整，未来中国经济增速将逐渐放缓，利率市场化改革的推进将促使银行业的利润增长回归正常水平。因此，银行业在服务经济结构调整的同时必须加快自身的战略调整和转型，秉承为实体经济服务的理念，优化信贷结构，大力发展小微金融、社区金融、绿色金融、消费金融等特色业务，通过差异化发展，支持和推动中国的经济结构调整和经济转型。
Based on the traditional theory of international trade, the difference of resourceendowment between two countries as well as of technology constitute the comparativeadvantage of a country. When there is no difference between countries in resourceendowment and technology, the difference of financing cost will impact thecomparative advantage of a country. The comparative advantage determines thedivision of labor status in the international trade of a country through resourcereconfiguration, which influences a country's foreign trade structure. The level offinancial development as a kind of comparative advantage, also can promote the tradestructure optimization and adjustment. The financial development has importantsignificance on the division and production mode as well as the adjustment of theexport trade structure.
According to the principle of comparative advantage theory, China mainlyexports labor-intensive products, but the exporting growth of capital and technologyintensive products is relatively slow. At the same time, the production technology oftraditional labor-intensive industry is short of innovation, which causes China tolimit in the traditional industry of comparative advantage and hardly transform thepresent trade pattern. How to promote the trade structure and seek the newcomparative advantage have been become to a big difficult problem which “made inChina” faces. After the crisis, the exportation structure adjustment and optimizationunder the condition of external demand weakening will be an important factor in therealization of the Chinese economy transformation. With the deepening of economicsystem reformation, China has made remarkable achievements of financialdevelopment. Financial reform has continued to deepen and financial system hasbeen gradually perfect. Financial tools have been increasingly rich, and also the breadth and depth of financial markets have been increased. However, China'sfinancial development is relatively lagging behind compared to the tradedevelopment. Under the background of economic transformation, promoting thelevel of financial development has important meanings on the adjustment of exporttrade structure. Therefore, China's financial market reformation will become a vitalpart of the export structure adjustment process.
Based on the thinking above, in this article author first takes a preliminarydiscussion on the relation between financial development and trade structure of themajor trading nations of the world and get a general conclusion, which is no matter theoverall level of financial development or financial intermediary or financial marketdevelopment level has significantly positive influence on a country's export structure.At the same time, from the point of relationship between financial structure and exportstructure, financial structure dominated by financial market is more conducive to thetransformation and upgrading of a country's export structure.
Secondly, in this paper, author has made some concluding based of the previousscholars’ related theoretical research, and made relative modification and expansionwhich consider that raising the level of financial development would helpcapital-intensive products’ export increase. The promoting of financial systemefficiency and quality leads to a decline in relative price of capital-intensive productsand a increase in production, while a rise in the relative price of labor-intensiveproducts and a decline in output. Under the opening condition, it becomes to anincrease in export of capital-intensive products and a decline in the export oflabor-intensive products. Therefore, raising the level of financial development couldincrease the proportion of capital-intensive products in export trade and optimize theeffect of the export trade structure.
The third, on the basis of the theoretical model, author selects different empiricalmethods to test the conclusion by constructing the financial development level and theexport trade structure measures and get the corresponding conclusions. In chapter Ⅳ,author investigates the impact of financial development on export trade structure using static panels and dynamic panel data model of generalized moment estimation methodrespectively. The result shows that the financial development endogenous problem ofthe impact on the export structure couldn’t be ignored and also we need to consider thesignificance of financial structure when author talk about the effect of financialdevelopment. Financial development has a significant influence on a country's exportstructure, and the improvement of a country's financial development level on exportstructure adjustment and upgrade has a positive effect, and the impact of financialdevelopment on export structure has endogenous; A country's financial structure alsohas a significant effect on its capital-intensive products export, the financial structuredominated by financial intermediaries exists inhibitory effect on capital-intensiveproducts exports, while the financial structure dominated by financial markets canpromote the export of capital-intensive products. Therefore, in the process of thetransformation and upgrade of a country's export structure, endogenous problems andthe relative development of financial intermediation and financial market will have abig difference.
In chapter Ⅴ, author tests the impact of each financial development indicators oneach level of export structure using the panel VAR model. The result shows that thecurrent financing model of China's export enterprises is meanly financial intermediary.The development of financial intermediation is the most beneficial to the developmentof export structure of low level, but not conducive to China's export structure from lowlevel to high level development. At the same time, this kind of financing modeldetermines that the impact of financial market on China's export structure was notsignificant. Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth,the development of financial markets made more advantageous to the steadydevelopment of economic growth.
In chapter Ⅵ, author concludes that the influence of financial development onexport trade structure exists threshold effect through the threshold panel data model.Author made focuses on the relationship between the development of the stock market,financial intermediaries, financial development and financial structure and low, medium and high level structure of export trade and the overall level of export tradestructure. Author selected GDP growth, GDP and GDP per capita of partners as thethreshold variables of the model to estimate. Stock market development, financialintermediary development, financial development and financial structure have positiveeffect on export trade structure overall. For the low, medium and high level structureof export trade, the above four types of financial development indexes have significantpositive influence on high level of export trade structure and have a significantnegative impact on the low level of export trade structure and have uncertain impact onthe middle level of export trade structure. This shows that financial development canpromote the export trade structure transform from junior to senior and is advantageousto the export trade structure adjustment and upgrade.
In this paper, it is concluded that raising the level of financial development canimprove a country's trade structure which shows a new train of thought for China'sforeign trade structure adjustment and transformation, which is paying attention to theimportant role of financial development. Deepening reform of the financial system andpreventing the excessive expansion of virtual economy, avoiding deviating from thereal economy needs and making the optimization efficiency of financial resourceallocation as a fundamental goal of the construction of the financial system, make surethat financial development can better support the development of the real economy.
Financial reform is an important content of China's economic reforms. GuidingChina's economy transition with financial system reform, and promoting from rapidgrowth to stable economic development are important goals of China's economicdevelopment in the future. China's existing financial system is dominated by indirectfinancing which can quickly gather a large number of social capitals, but the financialsystem formed under the traditional economic development mode is difficult to meetthe requirements of current economic transformation. So in the long term, the currentfinancial system would be very unfavorable to the development of the real economy,and realize a drag on the economy transition.
With the deepening of the national12th five-year plan, China has already entered the acceleration of economic restructuring and change of the pattern of economicdevelopment orbit, which means that transformation has become the major issues ofthe current national development. The financial transformation is imperative.Establishing and perfecting the financial system, in order to better serve the economictransformation, is the primary goal of the current China's financial development. Withthe adjustment of China's economic development pattern, China's future growth willslowly down, the interest rate marketing reform advancement will prompt bankingprofit growth to return to normal levels. Therefore, the banking industry in the serviceof the adjustment of the economic institutions must speed up its own strategicadjustment and transformation at the same time, upholding the concept of service forthe real economy, optimizing the credit structure, vigorously developing small microfinance, financial community, green finance business, consumer finance and othercharacteristics by different development supporting and promoting China's economicstructure adjustment and economic transformation.
根据比较优势原理，中国以劳动密集型产品出口为主，资本技术密集型产品出口增长缓慢。与此同时，传统劳动密集型产业的生产技术缺乏创新，导致中国局限于具有比较优势的传统产业，难以转变现行的贸易模式。如何提升贸易结构，寻找新的比较优势成为“中国制造”面临的一大难题。全球金融危机后，中国在外部需求减弱的条件下如何实现出口结构的调整与优化将是中国经济能否实现转型的重要因素。随着经济体制改革的深入，中国的金融发展取得显著成效，金融改革不断深化，金融体系逐步完善，金融工具日益丰富，金融市场的广度和深度不断提高。但是与贸易发展比较，中国的金融发展相对滞后。在经济转型的背景下，促进金融发展对出口结构的转变具有重要意义。因此，中国金融市场化改革将是出口结构调整过程中至关重要的一环。
基于对以上问题的思考，本文首先对全球主要贸易国家的金融发展与贸易结构相关关系进行初步探讨，得出一般性结论，即无论是金融发展总体水平还是金融中介与金融市场发展水平，其对一国出口结构均有显著积极影响。与此同时，从金融结构与出口结构之间关系来看，金融市场为主导的金融结构更有利于一国出口结构的升级与转型。
其次，本文对以往学者的相关理论研究进行了归纳和梳理，并在此基础上对模型进行修正和拓展，认为金融发展水平的提高能够促使资本密集型产品出口增加。金融体系效率和质量提高，导致资本密集型产品相对价格下降，产量增加，而劳动密集型产品的相对价格上升，产量下降。在开放条件下，表现为资本密集型产品出口的增加，劳动密集型产品出口下降。因此，金融发展水平的提高会促使一国资本密集型产品在出口贸易中比重增加，进而达到优化出口结构的效果。
再次，在理论模型建立的基础上，通过构建金融发展水平衡量指标与出口结构指标，选取不同的实证方法对这一结论进行检验并得出相应结论。在第四章中，分别采用静态面板和动态面板数据模型的广义矩估计方法考察金融发展对出口结构的影响。结果显示，金融发展对出口结构影响的内生性问题不容忽视，在强调金融发展影响作用时还需考虑金融结构的影响作用。金融发展对一国出口结构有显著影响，一国金融发展水平的提高对出口结构的调整与升级有着积极的推动作用，且金融发展对出口结构的影响具有内生性；一国的金融结构对其资本密集型产品出口也有显著影响，以金融中介为主导的金融结构对资本密集型产品出口存在抑制作用，而以金融市场为主导的金融结构则能够促进资本密集型产品出口。因此，在一国出口结构转型与升级的过程中，内生性问题和金融中介与市场的相对发展将会产生重要影响。
在第五章中，采用面板VAR模型考察不同金融发展指标对各个水平出口结构的冲击影响效果。结果表明，当前中国出口企业的融资模式以金融中介为主，金融中介的发展最有利于低融资依赖行业出口结构的发展，但并不利于中国出口结构由低水平向中高水平发展。同时，这一融资模式也决定了金融市场对中国出口结构的冲击影响不显著。就金融发展与经济增长之间关系及影响而言，金融市场的发展对经济增长的稳定发展更有利。
在第六章中，通过面板门槛数据模型的设定与检验得出金融发展对出口结构的影响存在门槛效应的结论。重点考察了股市发展、金融中介发展、金融发展以及金融结构分别与低、中、高融资依赖行业出口结构以及出口结构总体水平之间的相关关系。分别选取伙伴国GDP增长率、伙伴国GDP总量和伙伴国人均GDP作为模型的门槛变量进行面板门槛效果检验和模型估计。股市发展、金融中介发展、金融发展和金融结构对出口结构总体水平的提升均有积极的促进作用。对于细分的低、中、高融资依赖行业出口结构来说，以上四类金融发展指标对高融资依赖行业出口结构的提升有显著正向影响，对低融资依赖行业出口结构有显著负向影响，对中等融资依赖行业出口结构的影响有正有负。这说明，金融发展能够促进出口结构由低级向高级转型，有利于出口结构的调整和升级。
本文得出金融发展水平的提高能够改善一国贸易结构的结论，这一结论为中国对外贸易结构的调整与转型提供了新思路，那就是必须重视金融发展的重要作用。深化金融体制改革，防止虚拟经济过度膨胀，避免金融发展偏离实体经济需求，将优化金融资源配置效率作为金融体系建设的根本目标，使金融发展更好地支持实体经济的发展。
金融改革是中国经济改革的重要内容。以金融体制改革引导中国经济转型，促进经济由高速增长到平稳发展是未来中国经济发展的重要目标。中国现有的金融体系以间接融资为主，能够快速大量聚集社会资本，但这种在传统经济发展方式下形成的金融体制难以满足现阶段经济转型的要求，长此以往，现行的金融体制将十分不利于实体经济的发展，并拖累经济转型的实现。
随着国家“十二五”规划的深入推进，中国已经步入经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变的加速轨道，转型已经成为当前国家发展的重大议题。处于现代经济核心地位的金融行业首当其冲，金融转型势在必行。健全建立和完善金融体系，使之更好地服务于经济转型，是当前中国金融发展的首要目标。随着中国经济发展方式的不断调整，未来中国经济增速将逐渐放缓，利率市场化改革的推进将促使银行业的利润增长回归正常水平。因此，银行业在服务经济结构调整的同时必须加快自身的战略调整和转型，秉承为实体经济服务的理念，优化信贷结构，大力发展小微金融、社区金融、绿色金融、消费金融等特色业务，通过差异化发展，支持和推动中国的经济结构调整和经济转型。
Based on the traditional theory of international trade, the difference of resourceendowment between two countries as well as of technology constitute the comparativeadvantage of a country. When there is no difference between countries in resourceendowment and technology, the difference of financing cost will impact thecomparative advantage of a country. The comparative advantage determines thedivision of labor status in the international trade of a country through resourcereconfiguration, which influences a country's foreign trade structure. The level offinancial development as a kind of comparative advantage, also can promote the tradestructure optimization and adjustment. The financial development has importantsignificance on the division and production mode as well as the adjustment of theexport trade structure.
According to the principle of comparative advantage theory, China mainlyexports labor-intensive products, but the exporting growth of capital and technologyintensive products is relatively slow. At the same time, the production technology oftraditional labor-intensive industry is short of innovation, which causes China tolimit in the traditional industry of comparative advantage and hardly transform thepresent trade pattern. How to promote the trade structure and seek the newcomparative advantage have been become to a big difficult problem which “made inChina” faces. After the crisis, the exportation structure adjustment and optimizationunder the condition of external demand weakening will be an important factor in therealization of the Chinese economy transformation. With the deepening of economicsystem reformation, China has made remarkable achievements of financialdevelopment. Financial reform has continued to deepen and financial system hasbeen gradually perfect. Financial tools have been increasingly rich, and also the breadth and depth of financial markets have been increased. However, China'sfinancial development is relatively lagging behind compared to the tradedevelopment. Under the background of economic transformation, promoting thelevel of financial development has important meanings on the adjustment of exporttrade structure. Therefore, China's financial market reformation will become a vitalpart of the export structure adjustment process.
Based on the thinking above, in this article author first takes a preliminarydiscussion on the relation between financial development and trade structure of themajor trading nations of the world and get a general conclusion, which is no matter theoverall level of financial development or financial intermediary or financial marketdevelopment level has significantly positive influence on a country's export structure.At the same time, from the point of relationship between financial structure and exportstructure, financial structure dominated by financial market is more conducive to thetransformation and upgrading of a country's export structure.
Secondly, in this paper, author has made some concluding based of the previousscholars’ related theoretical research, and made relative modification and expansionwhich consider that raising the level of financial development would helpcapital-intensive products’ export increase. The promoting of financial systemefficiency and quality leads to a decline in relative price of capital-intensive productsand a increase in production, while a rise in the relative price of labor-intensiveproducts and a decline in output. Under the opening condition, it becomes to anincrease in export of capital-intensive products and a decline in the export oflabor-intensive products. Therefore, raising the level of financial development couldincrease the proportion of capital-intensive products in export trade and optimize theeffect of the export trade structure.
The third, on the basis of the theoretical model, author selects different empiricalmethods to test the conclusion by constructing the financial development level and theexport trade structure measures and get the corresponding conclusions. In chapter Ⅳ,author investigates the impact of financial development on export trade structure using static panels and dynamic panel data model of generalized moment estimation methodrespectively. The result shows that the financial development endogenous problem ofthe impact on the export structure couldn’t be ignored and also we need to consider thesignificance of financial structure when author talk about the effect of financialdevelopment. Financial development has a significant influence on a country's exportstructure, and the improvement of a country's financial development level on exportstructure adjustment and upgrade has a positive effect, and the impact of financialdevelopment on export structure has endogenous; A country's financial structure alsohas a significant effect on its capital-intensive products export, the financial structuredominated by financial intermediaries exists inhibitory effect on capital-intensiveproducts exports, while the financial structure dominated by financial markets canpromote the export of capital-intensive products. Therefore, in the process of thetransformation and upgrade of a country's export structure, endogenous problems andthe relative development of financial intermediation and financial market will have abig difference.
In chapter Ⅴ, author tests the impact of each financial development indicators oneach level of export structure using the panel VAR model. The result shows that thecurrent financing model of China's export enterprises is meanly financial intermediary.The development of financial intermediation is the most beneficial to the developmentof export structure of low level, but not conducive to China's export structure from lowlevel to high level development. At the same time, this kind of financing modeldetermines that the impact of financial market on China's export structure was notsignificant. Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth,the development of financial markets made more advantageous to the steadydevelopment of economic growth.
In chapter Ⅵ, author concludes that the influence of financial development onexport trade structure exists threshold effect through the threshold panel data model.Author made focuses on the relationship between the development of the stock market,financial intermediaries, financial development and financial structure and low, medium and high level structure of export trade and the overall level of export tradestructure. Author selected GDP growth, GDP and GDP per capita of partners as thethreshold variables of the model to estimate. Stock market development, financialintermediary development, financial development and financial structure have positiveeffect on export trade structure overall. For the low, medium and high level structureof export trade, the above four types of financial development indexes have significantpositive influence on high level of export trade structure and have a significantnegative impact on the low level of export trade structure and have uncertain impact onthe middle level of export trade structure. This shows that financial development canpromote the export trade structure transform from junior to senior and is advantageousto the export trade structure adjustment and upgrade.
In this paper, it is concluded that raising the level of financial development canimprove a country's trade structure which shows a new train of thought for China'sforeign trade structure adjustment and transformation, which is paying attention to theimportant role of financial development. Deepening reform of the financial system andpreventing the excessive expansion of virtual economy, avoiding deviating from thereal economy needs and making the optimization efficiency of financial resourceallocation as a fundamental goal of the construction of the financial system, make surethat financial development can better support the development of the real economy.
Financial reform is an important content of China's economic reforms. GuidingChina's economy transition with financial system reform, and promoting from rapidgrowth to stable economic development are important goals of China's economicdevelopment in the future. China's existing financial system is dominated by indirectfinancing which can quickly gather a large number of social capitals, but the financialsystem formed under the traditional economic development mode is difficult to meetthe requirements of current economic transformation. So in the long term, the currentfinancial system would be very unfavorable to the development of the real economy,and realize a drag on the economy transition.
With the deepening of the national12th five-year plan, China has already entered the acceleration of economic restructuring and change of the pattern of economicdevelopment orbit, which means that transformation has become the major issues ofthe current national development. The financial transformation is imperative.Establishing and perfecting the financial system, in order to better serve the economictransformation, is the primary goal of the current China's financial development. Withthe adjustment of China's economic development pattern, China's future growth willslowly down, the interest rate marketing reform advancement will prompt bankingprofit growth to return to normal levels. Therefore, the banking industry in the serviceof the adjustment of the economic institutions must speed up its own strategicadjustment and transformation at the same time, upholding the concept of service forthe real economy, optimizing the credit structure, vigorously developing small microfinance, financial community, green finance business, consumer finance and othercharacteristics by different development supporting and promoting China's economicstructure adjustment and economic transformation.
引文
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