基于序数空间的企业战略风险及财务绩效关系研究
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摘要
随着全球化趋势的加快，企业越来越关注企业组织层次的风险即企业战略风险问题。针对目前学界研究该问题存在的一些局限性，综合运用战略管理学、经济学、风险管理学和统计学，借鉴系统科学的思想和方法，融合定性与定量、演绎与归纳的方法，对企业战略风险及其财务绩效的关系进行了理论和方法讨论，并进行了相应的实证分析研究。
本文重新界定了战略风险的内涵和特点，研究了战略风险识别过程中的风险因素和风险形成机理，对战略风险的传统度量方法，如均值方差方法、绝对百分比差方法和夏普法、CAPM方法等进行了简要的归纳，分析了它们的优缺点，从而给出序数空间中熵度量方法对企业战略风险的度量，以企业绝对绩效和相对竞争绩效的变化对应的预期战略绩效的变化来刻画战略风险，将参考系统中企业位置下降所带来的负面不确定性定义为战略风险，利用转移概率矩阵和序数空间中的熵理论对系统的战略风险进行刻画。在此基础上，根据单个企业对系统风险的贡献度，在其他关键战略资源不变的情况下，确定某个企业排名的变化对系统战略风险变化的边际贡献度，从而得到各个企业的战略风险。同时针对更符合实际情况的动态参考系统，提出在有企业进入和退出系统的情况下的解决方案。一是通过固定进入前或退出后的企业位置，量化它在进入系统后或退出系统前的排名变化，得到新的转移概率矩阵，从而利用序数空间的有关理论进行度量。二是建立企业之间的摩擦系数，通过摩擦系数讨论对整个系统带来的风险大小，并给定一个行业进入和退出率的计算方法，通过进入和退出率将整个行业中进入和退出的现象量化解决。
在界定和度量了企业战略风险后对其与财务绩效的关系进行了一系列的讨论研究。首先，通过对面板数据模型的分析及对面板数据固定效应模型和随机效应模型的参数估计方法的讨论，选取企业财务绩效指标，建立了面板数据模型，利用中国纺织行业有关数据，验证了在中国国情下纺织业“鲍曼悖论”的特殊存在，说明高风险不一定必然带来高收益，企业应考虑如何建立长期低风险高收益的绩效产出。其次，对于每个研究阶段而言，可能会出现可供分析的相关企业数据较少，或其财务绩效指标之间有较强的相关性等问题，可采用偏最小二乘方法建模分析。在给出了偏最小二乘方法的理论基础和基本表达形式后，对多重共线性的诊断方法及其交叉有效性进行了分析，给出了它的算法步骤，依然利用中国纺织行业的相关数据进行对比分析，由于采用的是年度横截面数据，通过对它们的方差膨胀因子的计算，发现指标相关性明显。通过偏最小二乘方法的对比分析，得到部分年份存在战略风险和财务绩效指标相关关系相反的情况，这也说明在每个不同的年度中，企业应该针对实际情况采取相应的措施。最后，研究提出了面板偏最小二乘方法，根据对偏最小二乘方法的讨论，利用其对面板数据模型参数进行估计，并对其交叉有效性进行了分析，解决指标相关性强烈等问题，同样利用中国纺织行业数据，与面板数据模型的结果对比分析，得到在净资产收益率对各个指标的面板回归结果中，利用偏最小二乘方法对面板数据模型进行参数估计的回归结果更能表现出其方法的有效性，得到了净资产收益率与企业战略风险的负相关关系等一系列结论。
企业战略风险与财务绩效的关系分析对企业的战略管理和决策有重要的理论价值和实际应用价值。本文的研究对于进一步构建战略风险理论及转变战略管理实践的传统观念具有重要意义。为企业在不同环境下的资源配置及其管理决策提供参考依据。企业管理者在日常经营管理中，应该认识到在不同的财务绩效水平，企业所面临的战略风险是不一样的。只有在关注财务绩效的前提下，才能准确判断企业所处的战略地位，实现战略风险与财务绩效的均衡。
As the trend towards globalization has accelerated, the organizational level riskcalled strategic risk needs more attentions. In view of the current limitations onacademic study, followed by paradigm of strategic management, we integrate thetheory from strategic management, economic, risk management and statistics, andmethods from qualitative and quantitative, deductive and inductive, to analysis thetheory and method of strategic risk and its relationship with financial performance.
On foundation of reviewing relevant literatures about enterprise strategic risk, anew concept and characteristic of strategic risk are defined. We emphatically studiesin the risk factor and risk form mechanism of enterprise strategic risk identificationprocess. And we briefly review and analyze the tradition strategic risk measurementmethods, such as the mean variance method, the absolute percentage differentialmethod and Sharp method, CAPM method, then analyzed their advantages anddisadvantages. We use the method of entropy measurement in ordinal theory forsystem uncertainty to consider the strategic risk of the enterprise sets as the rankingchange in the system, which means that the risk is the negative uncertain informationdue to the drop. On this basis, according to the contribution of one enterprise to thewhole system, we can get the strategic risk of each enterprise in the system. We alsostudied the strategic risk measurement method in the system with the enterpriseentering and exiting, and analyzed two kinds of measurement methods. One is throughfixed the position before entering or after exiting the system, to quantify their rankingchanges. Then we got a new transition probability matrix, to measure the strategic riskusing the theory of ordinal space. The other is using the rank friction among theenterprises. We discussed the risk of the whole system through the rank friction.Using the method of entering and exiting rate, we solved the phenomenon of thewhole industry.
After defining and measuring strategic risk, we researched the relationshipbetween the strategic risk and financial performance. Firstly, we gave the generalmodel of panel data, then the fixed effect model and random effect model and theirparameter estimation methods. Choosing indicators of enterprise financialperformance and using the data of Chinese textile industry, we selected suitable paneldata model to find a negative relation between strategic risk and performance of Chinese textile industry, which is known as "Bowman's paradox". The result showsthat high risk does not necessarily bring high profits, and enterprise’s sustainablecompletive advantage is not only obtaining from the high return, but resulting inlong-term high return-low risk performance outputs. Secondly, with the problem ofless number of the system and the strong correlation between financial performanceindicators of enterprises in the industry of every section, we chose the partial leastsquares method to analyze. This study gives the basic theory of partial least squaresmethod and the basic form of expression, and analyses the multicollinearity diagnosismethod. We also chose the data of Chinese textile industry to compare the twomethods. With annual cross-section data, by their VIF calculation, we found theindicators correlation. Through the comparison of PLS and OLS, we got the negativerelation relationship of strategic risk and financial performance. We also suggestedthat in every different year, enterprises should take the corresponding measuresaccording to actual situation.Finally, we combined with panel data and partial leastsquares method. According to the discussion of the method of PLS, we used the PLSmethod to estimate its parameters of panel data model. and analyses its crosseffectiveness, solve the strong correlation problem. Using the data of Chinese textileindustry, we compared the two methods and obtained that panel data model with PLSmethod for parameter estimation of regression had more effectiveness. We got a seriesof conclusions that the return on ROA is negatively related to the enterprise strategicrisk.
The method provides new theoretical support for practical applications. Thestudy is very important to reframe strategic risk theory and change the attiudes instrategic management practive. It also provides the reference in different environmentfor the enterprise resource allocation and management decision-making. In dailyoperation and management, company managers should be realized in different levelsof performance, because of the different strategic risk. Only paying attention to thepremise of performance, the company managers can accurately judge the strategicposition of the company and realize the balance of strategic risk and performance.
本文重新界定了战略风险的内涵和特点，研究了战略风险识别过程中的风险因素和风险形成机理，对战略风险的传统度量方法，如均值方差方法、绝对百分比差方法和夏普法、CAPM方法等进行了简要的归纳，分析了它们的优缺点，从而给出序数空间中熵度量方法对企业战略风险的度量，以企业绝对绩效和相对竞争绩效的变化对应的预期战略绩效的变化来刻画战略风险，将参考系统中企业位置下降所带来的负面不确定性定义为战略风险，利用转移概率矩阵和序数空间中的熵理论对系统的战略风险进行刻画。在此基础上，根据单个企业对系统风险的贡献度，在其他关键战略资源不变的情况下，确定某个企业排名的变化对系统战略风险变化的边际贡献度，从而得到各个企业的战略风险。同时针对更符合实际情况的动态参考系统，提出在有企业进入和退出系统的情况下的解决方案。一是通过固定进入前或退出后的企业位置，量化它在进入系统后或退出系统前的排名变化，得到新的转移概率矩阵，从而利用序数空间的有关理论进行度量。二是建立企业之间的摩擦系数，通过摩擦系数讨论对整个系统带来的风险大小，并给定一个行业进入和退出率的计算方法，通过进入和退出率将整个行业中进入和退出的现象量化解决。
在界定和度量了企业战略风险后对其与财务绩效的关系进行了一系列的讨论研究。首先，通过对面板数据模型的分析及对面板数据固定效应模型和随机效应模型的参数估计方法的讨论，选取企业财务绩效指标，建立了面板数据模型，利用中国纺织行业有关数据，验证了在中国国情下纺织业“鲍曼悖论”的特殊存在，说明高风险不一定必然带来高收益，企业应考虑如何建立长期低风险高收益的绩效产出。其次，对于每个研究阶段而言，可能会出现可供分析的相关企业数据较少，或其财务绩效指标之间有较强的相关性等问题，可采用偏最小二乘方法建模分析。在给出了偏最小二乘方法的理论基础和基本表达形式后，对多重共线性的诊断方法及其交叉有效性进行了分析，给出了它的算法步骤，依然利用中国纺织行业的相关数据进行对比分析，由于采用的是年度横截面数据，通过对它们的方差膨胀因子的计算，发现指标相关性明显。通过偏最小二乘方法的对比分析，得到部分年份存在战略风险和财务绩效指标相关关系相反的情况，这也说明在每个不同的年度中，企业应该针对实际情况采取相应的措施。最后，研究提出了面板偏最小二乘方法，根据对偏最小二乘方法的讨论，利用其对面板数据模型参数进行估计，并对其交叉有效性进行了分析，解决指标相关性强烈等问题，同样利用中国纺织行业数据，与面板数据模型的结果对比分析，得到在净资产收益率对各个指标的面板回归结果中，利用偏最小二乘方法对面板数据模型进行参数估计的回归结果更能表现出其方法的有效性，得到了净资产收益率与企业战略风险的负相关关系等一系列结论。
企业战略风险与财务绩效的关系分析对企业的战略管理和决策有重要的理论价值和实际应用价值。本文的研究对于进一步构建战略风险理论及转变战略管理实践的传统观念具有重要意义。为企业在不同环境下的资源配置及其管理决策提供参考依据。企业管理者在日常经营管理中，应该认识到在不同的财务绩效水平，企业所面临的战略风险是不一样的。只有在关注财务绩效的前提下，才能准确判断企业所处的战略地位，实现战略风险与财务绩效的均衡。
As the trend towards globalization has accelerated, the organizational level riskcalled strategic risk needs more attentions. In view of the current limitations onacademic study, followed by paradigm of strategic management, we integrate thetheory from strategic management, economic, risk management and statistics, andmethods from qualitative and quantitative, deductive and inductive, to analysis thetheory and method of strategic risk and its relationship with financial performance.
On foundation of reviewing relevant literatures about enterprise strategic risk, anew concept and characteristic of strategic risk are defined. We emphatically studiesin the risk factor and risk form mechanism of enterprise strategic risk identificationprocess. And we briefly review and analyze the tradition strategic risk measurementmethods, such as the mean variance method, the absolute percentage differentialmethod and Sharp method, CAPM method, then analyzed their advantages anddisadvantages. We use the method of entropy measurement in ordinal theory forsystem uncertainty to consider the strategic risk of the enterprise sets as the rankingchange in the system, which means that the risk is the negative uncertain informationdue to the drop. On this basis, according to the contribution of one enterprise to thewhole system, we can get the strategic risk of each enterprise in the system. We alsostudied the strategic risk measurement method in the system with the enterpriseentering and exiting, and analyzed two kinds of measurement methods. One is throughfixed the position before entering or after exiting the system, to quantify their rankingchanges. Then we got a new transition probability matrix, to measure the strategic riskusing the theory of ordinal space. The other is using the rank friction among theenterprises. We discussed the risk of the whole system through the rank friction.Using the method of entering and exiting rate, we solved the phenomenon of thewhole industry.
After defining and measuring strategic risk, we researched the relationshipbetween the strategic risk and financial performance. Firstly, we gave the generalmodel of panel data, then the fixed effect model and random effect model and theirparameter estimation methods. Choosing indicators of enterprise financialperformance and using the data of Chinese textile industry, we selected suitable paneldata model to find a negative relation between strategic risk and performance of Chinese textile industry, which is known as "Bowman's paradox". The result showsthat high risk does not necessarily bring high profits, and enterprise’s sustainablecompletive advantage is not only obtaining from the high return, but resulting inlong-term high return-low risk performance outputs. Secondly, with the problem ofless number of the system and the strong correlation between financial performanceindicators of enterprises in the industry of every section, we chose the partial leastsquares method to analyze. This study gives the basic theory of partial least squaresmethod and the basic form of expression, and analyses the multicollinearity diagnosismethod. We also chose the data of Chinese textile industry to compare the twomethods. With annual cross-section data, by their VIF calculation, we found theindicators correlation. Through the comparison of PLS and OLS, we got the negativerelation relationship of strategic risk and financial performance. We also suggestedthat in every different year, enterprises should take the corresponding measuresaccording to actual situation.Finally, we combined with panel data and partial leastsquares method. According to the discussion of the method of PLS, we used the PLSmethod to estimate its parameters of panel data model. and analyses its crosseffectiveness, solve the strong correlation problem. Using the data of Chinese textileindustry, we compared the two methods and obtained that panel data model with PLSmethod for parameter estimation of regression had more effectiveness. We got a seriesof conclusions that the return on ROA is negatively related to the enterprise strategicrisk.
The method provides new theoretical support for practical applications. Thestudy is very important to reframe strategic risk theory and change the attiudes instrategic management practive. It also provides the reference in different environmentfor the enterprise resource allocation and management decision-making. In dailyoperation and management, company managers should be realized in different levelsof performance, because of the different strategic risk. Only paying attention to thepremise of performance, the company managers can accurately judge the strategicposition of the company and realize the balance of strategic risk and performance.
引文
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