中国油菜产业安全研究
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摘要
实践证明,农业成为我国加入WTO以来受冲击最大的产业之一,因此国家加大了对农业的支持保护力度,并将粮食安全一直作为国家战略安全的重中之重,但我国的粮食自给已经得到基本保障,而食用植物油的战略安全隐患已经悄然降临,尤其是中国的传统油料作物大豆在国外转基因大豆的冲击下节节败退,大豆产业逐渐萎缩。我国97家大型的大豆加工企业中已经有64家具有外资背景,占总股本的66%,其实际加工能力已经占到国内总实际加工能力的85%,我国大豆进口货源的80%控制在ADM、邦吉、嘉吉、路易达孚(ABCD)四大粮商和丰益国际手中。这些外资企业甚至企图控制豆粕、菜籽粕等蛋白质饲料原料的加工,进军我国饲料行业。大豆遭遇的危机,引起了各界对我国油脂油料产业安全的广泛关注,大豆“不设防”的悲剧,也引发了学者们对大豆悲剧是否会在其他油料品种上重演的担忧。此时,油菜作为我国除大豆之外的第一大油料作物,其产业安全问题摆在了油脂油料产业安全问题的前沿。
本文基于这一现实背景,试图对建国以来我国油菜产业的发展历程和各省油菜产业的演变历程进行回顾,总结我国油菜产业安全问题的产生过程和当前面临的安全形势；通过构建指标体系、采用一定的方法对我国油菜产业的“安全度”和各省油菜产业的“安全度”分别进行了估算,对我国未来八年的油菜产业“安全度”进行了预测；针对当前我国油菜产业安全面临的最大挑战是油菜产品的大量进口问题,结合大豆“沦陷”的惨痛教训,产品的大量进口易导致产业“定价权”的缺失问题,因此本文采用四步骤评价法判断了我国油菜产业的“定价权”是否缺失；本文认为在当前我国油菜产业“不安全”的状态下,依靠产业自身的发展来改善产业安全已经不现实,此时政府的政策支持与保护成为我国油菜产业不彻底重蹈大豆覆辙的重要保证,因此本文在对近年来我国油菜产业支持政策进行梳理的基础上,讨论了这些政策措施存在的问题,借鉴各国维护油料产业安全的经验,最终对我国政府保护油菜产业、提升油菜产业安全度提出了政策建议。
本文每个部分的具体研究内容如下：
第一章是研究导论,介绍了本文的研究背景和研究意义；基本概念和范围界定；研究目标和研究内容；采取的研究方法；可能的创新与不足之处。
第二章是国内外相关研究回顾与评价,对产业安全的理论渊源、国内外有关产业安全和油菜产业的研究现状进行了综述与述评。
第三章是我国油菜产业发展现状与产业安全问题分析,介绍了我国油菜产业在生产、加工、消费、贸易方面的发展概况；分析了我国油菜产业安全问题是怎样逐渐产生并得到重视的；总结了当前我国油菜产业安全问题的四大隐患。
第四章是我国油菜产业安全(度)的实证评估与预测,构建了含有3个一级指标、13个二级指标的评价指标体系；根据各指标1985-2012年的取值,用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型对各指标2013-2020年的取值进行了预测；采用主成分分析法和模糊综合评价法对1985-2020年我国的油菜产业安全度进行了量化估算与预测,并将两种估算方法得出的结果进行了对比。
第五章是我国油菜产业区域发展现状与产业安全形势分析,对比了我国14个主产省的油菜产业在生产、加工、消费、流通、贸易方面的发展现状,分析了油菜产业在区域布局上存在的对油菜产业安全的不利影响。
第六章是我国油菜区域产业安全实证评估与聚类分析,在参考已有研究成果的基础上,构建了评价我国油菜区域产业安全(度)的指标体系,采用因子分析法和聚类分析法对14个主产省在2003-2012年的油菜产业安全水平进行了量化估算与聚类。
第七章是我国油菜产业定价权缺失问题判断,设定了判断定价权是否缺失的四个步骤,对我国油菜产品是否存在定价权缺失问题进行了验证,具体分析了产品进口量与进口价格、国际价格的关系,进口价格波动与世界供给盈余量的关系,进口价格与国际市场价格的动态比价,我国菜籽油现货价格、郑州商品交易所菜籽油期货价格、加拿大商品交易所油菜籽期货价格之间的关联性。
第八章是我国油菜产业政策梳理与主要国家经验借鉴,总结了1990-2013年国家涉及油菜产业的64份文件在油菜产业布局、产业发展、产品贸易等方面的政策措施,提出了部分政策存在的问题；总结了美国、加拿大、日本等7个国家的油料支持政策,并提出了经验借鉴。
第九章是结论与政策建议,在总结文章主要分析结论的基础上,从9个方面提出了政策建议。
本文的主要结论有：1985-2012年我国油菜产业安全度总体上呈下降趋势,预测在2013-2018年问油菜产业安全程度较2012年有所改善,但到2019年和2020年油菜产业安全程度再次降到2012年之下；按照百分制得分来给油菜产业安全水平进行打分的话,如果100分是完全的不安全,则2012年油菜产业安全得分是73.01分,2020年得分是73.80分,均处于“不安全”状态,如果A级是安全、D级是危机的话,则我国油菜产业安全等级为C；2003-2012年14个主产省的油菜产业安全度存在波动,多数省份安全度差异不显著；我国油菜产业存在产品定价权缺失问题,我国不具有独立的国际定价权,加拿大仍然是油菜产品的国际价格中心,产品大量进口下我国油菜产业安全容易遭受来自国际市场的价格风险。
It indicates that agriculture became one of the most-effected industries in our country since the accession to the WTO, so the state has stepped up efforts to protect agricultural support, and put the food security as a national strategic priority of security. Although the self sufficiency of grain has been a basic protection, the potential security hazard of the edible vegetable oil has quietly come, especially the soybean industry shrink gradually under the impact of foreign transgenic soybean. There are64enterprises that have foreign background of foreign capital in97large soybean processing enterprises of China. These enterprises represent66%of the total stock and their actual processing capacity has accounted for the domestic total actual processing capacity of85%. Four large grain dealers ABCD and Wilmar International have controlled80%of China's soybean import source. These foreign companies even attempt to control the processing of protein raw materials such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and inroad into China's feed industry. The soybean crisis attracts the wide interests on oil industry, oil security. Soybean "undefended" tragedy also led scholars to worry whether soy tragedy will repeat itself on other oil. Now, as the largest oil crops other than the soybean, the industry security of the oilseed rape has placed in the forefront of fuel oil industry security problems.
Based on the background of above reality, the development process of rapeseed industry in China and the evolution process of rapeseed industry in each province were reviewed since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and the generating process of rapeseed industry security issues and the security situation currently facing were summarized. By constructing the index system, the rapeseed industry security in China and every province in China were estimated, and the rapeseed industry security for the next eight years was also predicted. As for the strongest challenges currently facing for our rapeseed industry security is the large quantities import of rapeseed products, combined with soy occupied the painful lessons and easily lead to a lack of pricing right by large number of imported products, so in this paper, four-step evaluation method is applied to determine whether the country's rapeseed industry pricing right is missing. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the current unsafe state of rapeseed industry, it is unrealistic to rely on industry self-development to improve industry security, and at this time the governmental policy support is the important guarantee for the security of rapeseed industry, which will not completely repeat the mistakes of the soybean industry. Therefore, by sorting governmental policy of support measures, discussing the problems of these measures and learning the policies and experiences of other countries on maintaining the oil industry security, finally we proposed some recommendations on protecting rapeseed industry security for our governmental policies.
The details are summarized briefly as follows:
Chapter1is introduction. The research background and significance, basic concept and scoping definition, research target and research synopsis, research method, possible innovation and deficiencies, etc. are introduced in this chapter.
Chapter2is the review and assessment of domestic and foreign research. The theoretical origins of industry security, industrial security at home and abroad and the research status for rape industry are summarized and reviewed.
Chapter3is the analysis for the status of rapeseed industrial development and industrial security issues. The overview of the rapeseed industrial development in production, processing, consumption and trade are described. How to generate and get attention gradually for the rapeseed industry security problem is analyzed. The four significant security risks for current rapeseed industry are summarized.
Chapter4is the empirical assessment and forecasting for the rapeseed industry security (degrees). The assessment system consists of3first class indexes and13second indexes. According to the value of each index in1985-2012years, the corresponding value in each index in2013-2020is predicted with gray metabolism GM (1,1) model. Principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to quantitatively estimate and predict the rapeseed industry security in1985-2020, and the results obtained by above two estimation methods were compared.
Chapter5is the current status of regional development and industrial security situation analysis for rapeseed industry. The development status of14provinces for rapeseed industry in the production, processing, consumption, distribution and trade are compared, and finally find out the exited factors on rapeseed industry security during the evolution of the region layout for rapeseed industry.
Chapter6is the empirical evaluation and clustered analysis for the rapeseed regional industrial security. In reference to the existing research results, an assessment system of rapeseed regional industrial security was build, and the industrial security levels on14major provinces in2003-2012were quantitatively estimated and clustered by factor analysis and cluster analysis method.
Chapter7is an empirical assessment of the pricing right on rapeseed industry. Four steps for determining whether the pricing right is lacked was set up, and the results were verified. Product imports and import prices, relationship between international prices, relationship between the import price fluctuations and the world supply surplus, dynamic contrast between import prices with international market prices, and the relevance among spot price of rapeseed oil, future price in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and future price in Canada Commodity Exchange were analyzed.
Chapter8hackled the rape industry policy of China, and used the experience of main related countries for reference. It summarized policies and measures from64copies of the document involved with rape industry of China from1990to2013, which is on aspects such as rape industrial distribution, industrial development and products trade, and put forward some policy problems. The article also summed up the oilseed support policy of seven countries such as America, Canada, Japan, and presented the experience that we can learn.
Chapter9is the main conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of the main conclusions, this paper gave policy suggestions from9aspects.
The main conclusions of this paper: The security degree of rape industry of China shows a downward tendency as a whole in2013-2012. It can be predicted that the security degree of rape industry of China will continue to decline from2013to2020. If we assume that100points is completely insecure, it's possible to score73.01points in2012and73.80points in2020. There was a fluctuation of the security degree of rape industry of14corn-producing provinces in2003-2012. The difference of the security degree in majority of provinces is not obvious. Problems exist in China's rape industry pricing power when China imports rapeseed products. China has no independent international pricing right. And under the situation of importing a great quantity of rapeseed products, China's rape industry security still faces international market price risk.
本文基于这一现实背景,试图对建国以来我国油菜产业的发展历程和各省油菜产业的演变历程进行回顾,总结我国油菜产业安全问题的产生过程和当前面临的安全形势；通过构建指标体系、采用一定的方法对我国油菜产业的“安全度”和各省油菜产业的“安全度”分别进行了估算,对我国未来八年的油菜产业“安全度”进行了预测；针对当前我国油菜产业安全面临的最大挑战是油菜产品的大量进口问题,结合大豆“沦陷”的惨痛教训,产品的大量进口易导致产业“定价权”的缺失问题,因此本文采用四步骤评价法判断了我国油菜产业的“定价权”是否缺失；本文认为在当前我国油菜产业“不安全”的状态下,依靠产业自身的发展来改善产业安全已经不现实,此时政府的政策支持与保护成为我国油菜产业不彻底重蹈大豆覆辙的重要保证,因此本文在对近年来我国油菜产业支持政策进行梳理的基础上,讨论了这些政策措施存在的问题,借鉴各国维护油料产业安全的经验,最终对我国政府保护油菜产业、提升油菜产业安全度提出了政策建议。
本文每个部分的具体研究内容如下：
第一章是研究导论,介绍了本文的研究背景和研究意义；基本概念和范围界定；研究目标和研究内容；采取的研究方法；可能的创新与不足之处。
第二章是国内外相关研究回顾与评价,对产业安全的理论渊源、国内外有关产业安全和油菜产业的研究现状进行了综述与述评。
第三章是我国油菜产业发展现状与产业安全问题分析,介绍了我国油菜产业在生产、加工、消费、贸易方面的发展概况；分析了我国油菜产业安全问题是怎样逐渐产生并得到重视的；总结了当前我国油菜产业安全问题的四大隐患。
第四章是我国油菜产业安全(度)的实证评估与预测,构建了含有3个一级指标、13个二级指标的评价指标体系；根据各指标1985-2012年的取值,用灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型对各指标2013-2020年的取值进行了预测；采用主成分分析法和模糊综合评价法对1985-2020年我国的油菜产业安全度进行了量化估算与预测,并将两种估算方法得出的结果进行了对比。
第五章是我国油菜产业区域发展现状与产业安全形势分析,对比了我国14个主产省的油菜产业在生产、加工、消费、流通、贸易方面的发展现状,分析了油菜产业在区域布局上存在的对油菜产业安全的不利影响。
第六章是我国油菜区域产业安全实证评估与聚类分析,在参考已有研究成果的基础上,构建了评价我国油菜区域产业安全(度)的指标体系,采用因子分析法和聚类分析法对14个主产省在2003-2012年的油菜产业安全水平进行了量化估算与聚类。
第七章是我国油菜产业定价权缺失问题判断,设定了判断定价权是否缺失的四个步骤,对我国油菜产品是否存在定价权缺失问题进行了验证,具体分析了产品进口量与进口价格、国际价格的关系,进口价格波动与世界供给盈余量的关系,进口价格与国际市场价格的动态比价,我国菜籽油现货价格、郑州商品交易所菜籽油期货价格、加拿大商品交易所油菜籽期货价格之间的关联性。
第八章是我国油菜产业政策梳理与主要国家经验借鉴,总结了1990-2013年国家涉及油菜产业的64份文件在油菜产业布局、产业发展、产品贸易等方面的政策措施,提出了部分政策存在的问题；总结了美国、加拿大、日本等7个国家的油料支持政策,并提出了经验借鉴。
第九章是结论与政策建议,在总结文章主要分析结论的基础上,从9个方面提出了政策建议。
本文的主要结论有：1985-2012年我国油菜产业安全度总体上呈下降趋势,预测在2013-2018年问油菜产业安全程度较2012年有所改善,但到2019年和2020年油菜产业安全程度再次降到2012年之下；按照百分制得分来给油菜产业安全水平进行打分的话,如果100分是完全的不安全,则2012年油菜产业安全得分是73.01分,2020年得分是73.80分,均处于“不安全”状态,如果A级是安全、D级是危机的话,则我国油菜产业安全等级为C；2003-2012年14个主产省的油菜产业安全度存在波动,多数省份安全度差异不显著；我国油菜产业存在产品定价权缺失问题,我国不具有独立的国际定价权,加拿大仍然是油菜产品的国际价格中心,产品大量进口下我国油菜产业安全容易遭受来自国际市场的价格风险。
It indicates that agriculture became one of the most-effected industries in our country since the accession to the WTO, so the state has stepped up efforts to protect agricultural support, and put the food security as a national strategic priority of security. Although the self sufficiency of grain has been a basic protection, the potential security hazard of the edible vegetable oil has quietly come, especially the soybean industry shrink gradually under the impact of foreign transgenic soybean. There are64enterprises that have foreign background of foreign capital in97large soybean processing enterprises of China. These enterprises represent66%of the total stock and their actual processing capacity has accounted for the domestic total actual processing capacity of85%. Four large grain dealers ABCD and Wilmar International have controlled80%of China's soybean import source. These foreign companies even attempt to control the processing of protein raw materials such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and inroad into China's feed industry. The soybean crisis attracts the wide interests on oil industry, oil security. Soybean "undefended" tragedy also led scholars to worry whether soy tragedy will repeat itself on other oil. Now, as the largest oil crops other than the soybean, the industry security of the oilseed rape has placed in the forefront of fuel oil industry security problems.
Based on the background of above reality, the development process of rapeseed industry in China and the evolution process of rapeseed industry in each province were reviewed since the founding of the People's Republic of China, and the generating process of rapeseed industry security issues and the security situation currently facing were summarized. By constructing the index system, the rapeseed industry security in China and every province in China were estimated, and the rapeseed industry security for the next eight years was also predicted. As for the strongest challenges currently facing for our rapeseed industry security is the large quantities import of rapeseed products, combined with soy occupied the painful lessons and easily lead to a lack of pricing right by large number of imported products, so in this paper, four-step evaluation method is applied to determine whether the country's rapeseed industry pricing right is missing. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the current unsafe state of rapeseed industry, it is unrealistic to rely on industry self-development to improve industry security, and at this time the governmental policy support is the important guarantee for the security of rapeseed industry, which will not completely repeat the mistakes of the soybean industry. Therefore, by sorting governmental policy of support measures, discussing the problems of these measures and learning the policies and experiences of other countries on maintaining the oil industry security, finally we proposed some recommendations on protecting rapeseed industry security for our governmental policies.
The details are summarized briefly as follows:
Chapter1is introduction. The research background and significance, basic concept and scoping definition, research target and research synopsis, research method, possible innovation and deficiencies, etc. are introduced in this chapter.
Chapter2is the review and assessment of domestic and foreign research. The theoretical origins of industry security, industrial security at home and abroad and the research status for rape industry are summarized and reviewed.
Chapter3is the analysis for the status of rapeseed industrial development and industrial security issues. The overview of the rapeseed industrial development in production, processing, consumption and trade are described. How to generate and get attention gradually for the rapeseed industry security problem is analyzed. The four significant security risks for current rapeseed industry are summarized.
Chapter4is the empirical assessment and forecasting for the rapeseed industry security (degrees). The assessment system consists of3first class indexes and13second indexes. According to the value of each index in1985-2012years, the corresponding value in each index in2013-2020is predicted with gray metabolism GM (1,1) model. Principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to quantitatively estimate and predict the rapeseed industry security in1985-2020, and the results obtained by above two estimation methods were compared.
Chapter5is the current status of regional development and industrial security situation analysis for rapeseed industry. The development status of14provinces for rapeseed industry in the production, processing, consumption, distribution and trade are compared, and finally find out the exited factors on rapeseed industry security during the evolution of the region layout for rapeseed industry.
Chapter6is the empirical evaluation and clustered analysis for the rapeseed regional industrial security. In reference to the existing research results, an assessment system of rapeseed regional industrial security was build, and the industrial security levels on14major provinces in2003-2012were quantitatively estimated and clustered by factor analysis and cluster analysis method.
Chapter7is an empirical assessment of the pricing right on rapeseed industry. Four steps for determining whether the pricing right is lacked was set up, and the results were verified. Product imports and import prices, relationship between international prices, relationship between the import price fluctuations and the world supply surplus, dynamic contrast between import prices with international market prices, and the relevance among spot price of rapeseed oil, future price in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and future price in Canada Commodity Exchange were analyzed.
Chapter8hackled the rape industry policy of China, and used the experience of main related countries for reference. It summarized policies and measures from64copies of the document involved with rape industry of China from1990to2013, which is on aspects such as rape industrial distribution, industrial development and products trade, and put forward some policy problems. The article also summed up the oilseed support policy of seven countries such as America, Canada, Japan, and presented the experience that we can learn.
Chapter9is the main conclusions and policy recommendations. On the basis of the main conclusions, this paper gave policy suggestions from9aspects.
The main conclusions of this paper: The security degree of rape industry of China shows a downward tendency as a whole in2013-2012. It can be predicted that the security degree of rape industry of China will continue to decline from2013to2020. If we assume that100points is completely insecure, it's possible to score73.01points in2012and73.80points in2020. There was a fluctuation of the security degree of rape industry of14corn-producing provinces in2003-2012. The difference of the security degree in majority of provinces is not obvious. Problems exist in China's rape industry pricing power when China imports rapeseed products. China has no independent international pricing right. And under the situation of importing a great quantity of rapeseed products, China's rape industry security still faces international market price risk.
引文
1 许铭.中国产业安全问题分析[M].太原：山西经济出版社,2006.
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1 2007年3月制定《扩大油菜籽生产计划——2015(Growing Great2015)》。
1 国家农业保险计划(National Agricultural Insurance Scheme).
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