能源节约、碳减排与中国经济增长
|
摘要
资源节约、环境保护与经济增长是人类共同关心的话题,也是当今学术界关注的一个热点。其中,一个重要的焦点便是能源节约、碳减排和经济增长问题。在中国,如果认可能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长之间的不协调、不平衡之现状,那是因为中国工业化发展的阶段特征、城镇化推进过程中能源消耗(需求)结构的固化以及全球产业分工链条的低端化而导致的经济粗放式的增长。在面对能源短缺、碳排放和经济增长的矛盾及世界气候变化的国际压力,如何才能兑现中国在国际气候谈判中所作出的承诺,即到2020年中国的单位GDP二氧化碳排放(即GDP碳排放强度)比2005年下降40-45%,非化石能源占一次能源消耗比重达到15%左右,应从不同角度提出一个全面的能源资源节约和碳减排的对策。
本文首先对资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长关系的研究文献进行了梳理,发现,主流的增长理论中,资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)经历了被忽视、重视和全面重视的不同发展阶段。随着自然资源(能源)因素在经济增长中作用的重视,以及经济增长对环境的破坏,尤其是自然资源(能源)的利用对环境污染的日益加重,如温室气体效应、酸雨及极端气候等,经济增长理论中的资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)问题,即三者的协调性、经济的可持续增长、能源的节约以及碳减排等问题成为了当前研究的核心。
那么,问题的另一方面即是,在资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)的约束下,经济是否可以持续增长?文章分别基于新古典增长理论和新增长理论(内生增长理论),将能源资源和碳排放引入到增长模型中,并对各个参数进行了适当的设置,通过均衡解的解析,得出经济持续增长的基本条件是能源消耗的增长率不能大于能源存量的增长率,也就是说能源存量能够满足能源消耗(需求)的同时,污染物的增长率不能大于0,也就是说环境质量不能随着经济产出规模的扩大而无限下降。
接下来,文章对中国经济增长的动因从能源消耗的角度进行了初步探索,并对中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的协调性进行了实证测算。能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的Granger因果检验表明能源消耗是碳排放和经济增长的Granger原因,能源消耗和碳排放互为Granger因果关系,碳排放和经济增长互为Granger因果关系。路径分析表明,能源消耗和经济增长呈双向因果关系,经济增长对碳排放存在因果关系,能源消耗对碳排放存在因果关系。这从一定程度上佐证了中国经济增长严重依靠能源消耗,并导致了环境不断恶化的结论。利用非线性规划技术,基于方向性距离函数衡量中国环境与经济产出的环境技术效率表明中国中西部地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长都处于失衡状况,而东部沿海发达地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济关系较为和谐,但是,整体上来讲中国各个省、市、自治区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长关系在不断在恶化。这些不协调性的佐证再一次说明中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长之间矛盾的尖锐性,中国经济绿色增长的实现任重而道远。
既然,在一定条件下经济增长是可持续的,即资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长是可以协调发展的,因此,应通过政策或市场规律使得资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长协调、平衡发展,从根本上实现中国经济“又好又快”的发展。于是,在当前中国工业化和城市化的特殊历史阶段,一个更为直观的问题便是：一、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,中国如何实现能源的节约,尤其是一次性能源或化石能源资源消耗的真正节约；二、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,如何实现中国碳排放的真正下降。
在这样两个明确的目标约束下以及中国能源的过度消耗,尤其是一次性化石能源的消耗,进而导致的污染物严重超标,尤其是碳排放严重超标之现状,文章重点讨论了中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策和中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策。
具体的,关于中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策研究,主要从中国未来2015年和2020年能源强度目标出发,首先通过构建能源消耗的影响因素模型,将具有阶段性特征的工业化程度、城市化率等因素纳入到了模型当中,通过合理的能源消耗影响因素未来值的设定,预测出未来即2015年和2020年的人均能源消耗量,进而得到了预测能源强度值。其略高于政府计划值,说明中国未来能源节约的压力还较大。考虑到影响因素未来值设定的偏差,通过微调这些因素,进行单变量敏感性分析,发现产业结构的调整和技术进步将成为实现中国未来能源强度目标或能源节约的首选,其次是能源相对价格和贸易结构的改变。据此,本文提出能源节约的政策建议为,在进行积极倡导的同时,必须实施能源的强制节约。在此基础上,文章还基于省域和行业的角度,利用上述模型,通过建立面板数据模型对中国的节能路径进行全面地分析。从省域的来看,优化中国产业结构,降低工业尤其是耗能较高的行业在国民经济中的比例,有助于中国能源的节约；能源相对价格的提高不利于全国及低能源消耗组、中能源消耗组、高能源消耗组能源的节约；提高电力等效率较高的能源替代效率较低的煤炭有利于中国各个省、市、自治区最终能源的节约,但是对于不同的省、市、自治区要区别对待,因地制宜。从行业的角度来看,由于中国工业部门内部的诸多工业行业的能源消耗之间存在较大的差异,不同能耗特征的各个工业行业的能源消耗的显著影响因素及其影响程度大小的不尽相同,因此在保证中国经济持续增长的前提下,节能措施的采取应对不同的工业行业进行具体分析、区别对待。总的来讲,中国能源节约的重点行业是制造业,主要手段是技术进步。
关于中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策研究,主要通过建立中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP关系的LSTR模型,并分别以经济增长速度和能源强度为阈值变量进行了分析。研究表明,中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP的关系在不同经济环境下(如不同的经济增长速度和能源强度)而不同。为了实现中国碳减排和经济增长之双赢,并使得能源节约、碳减排与经济增长协调发展,必须在如何降低能源强度上下功夫。文章还基于全国的角度、省域的角度和行业的角度对如何降低能源强度进行了全面的分析。由全国能源强度的结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM)的脉冲响应和方差分解分析可知,为了实现能源强度的下降,短期内,能源价格改革和扩大对外开放程度成为“迅速”降低中国能源强度的关键。长期而言,必须大力发展中国的可再生能源和清洁能源,彻底改变中国的能源消耗结构。由省域能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,对于各个省、市、自治区的碳减排要从不同方面(如产业政策等)区别对待。总体来讲,优化能源消耗结构和产业结构是降低各个省、市、自治区能源强度的关键,要以技术进步和能源价格调整做为降低能源强度主要手段。具体来说,对于高能源强度组的青海、贵州、山西和宁夏而言,主要在产业结构和能源消耗结构调整上下工夫；对于中能源消耗组的四川、重庆、黑龙江、陕西、云南、吉林、辽宁、河北、新疆、内蒙古和甘肃而言,应主要在调整产业结构和技术进步上下功夫；对于低能源消耗组的福建、广东、海南、江苏、上海、江西、广西、山东、北京、湖南、安徽、天津和河南而言,因各个影响因素的作用均较小,所以节能减排的压力也较小。由行业能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,各个影响因素受到冲击后,能源消耗结构、技术进步和能源价格具有反向作用,贸易结构具有正向作用,均对降低能源强度有积极的持续作用,其中作用最大的是能源消耗结构,其余的作用较小。从方差分解结果可以看出,能源相对价格和能源消耗结构的贡献最大,技术进步和贸易结构贡献较小。因此,对于行业而言,节能减排的重点依然是能源消耗结构的大力调整。
Resource conservation is a common concern of mankind. Environmental protection and economic growth remain a focus of academic research, in which energy conservation, carbon emission reduction and economic growth occupy the prominant position. If we recognize the status quo of the imbalance and uncoordination between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, that is due to China's extensive economic growth which brings about by the characteristics of the development of China's industrialization, the curing demand structure in the stage of the process of promoting urbanization and the low-end of the global industrial division. So, in facing of the energy shortage, the contradiction between carbon emissions and economic growth and the international pressure on the world's climate change, we should raise a comprehensive resource conservation and carbon emission reduction from different angles to achieve the commitments made by China in the international climate negotiations, that is the carbon dioxide emissions of per unit GDP (carbon intensity of GDP) decreased by40-45%in2020, compared to2005and the proportion of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption dropped to15%.
Firstly, this paper combs the research literature on the relationship between resources (energy), the environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth, and finds that the resources and environment have gone through different development stages during which they are once neglected, payed full attention to in the mainstream economic growth theory. With the emphasis on the role of natural resources (energy) factors in economic growth, and environmental damage resulted from economic growth, especially the increasing environmental pollution which is caused by the consumption of natural resources, such as greenhouse gas effect, the resources and environmental issues in the theory of economic growth, the coordination of them, that is, the sustainable economic growth, energy saving and carbon emission reduction has become the core of the current study.
However, another aspect of the problem is how we achieve sustainable economic growth under the constraints of resources (energy) and environment (carbon emissions). This paper, based on the neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory (endogenous growth theory) respectively, by bringing energy resources and carbon emissions into the economic growth model, and setting for the various parameters appropriately, and parsing through the equilibrium solution, reaches the basic conditions for sustained economic growth, that is the growth rate of energy consumption can not be greater than the stock of energy, which means that the stock of energy has to meet the energy demand, while the growth rate of the pollutants can not be greater than0, that is the quality of the environment can not be declined infinitely with the scale of the economic output.
Secondly, the article makes a preliminary study of the motivation of China's economic growth from the perspective of energy consumption, and does an empirical estimate of the coordination of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. The Granger causality tests of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth show that the energy consumption constitutes a mutual causal relationship with carbon emissions and economic growth; The path analysis show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; economic growth has causal relationship on carbon emissions and is also the same for energy consumption and carbon emissions, which, to some extent, indicates that China's economic growth is heavily dependent on energy consumption and leads to the environment deterioration. Next, by using the nonlinear programming techniques, the article measures the environment efficiency of the environment and economic output based on directional distance function. The results indicate that the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is in imbalance in central and western regions of China; while, it's harmonious in the developed eastern coastal regions; however, the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth continues to deteriorate on the terms of each province in China. The uncoordinated relationship shows once again that the sharp contradictions between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, so there is still a long way to go for achieving China's economic green growth.
Since, under the certain conditions, economic growth is sustainable, that is the resources (energy), environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth can be developed coordinately, therefore, we shall adopt policies or market's laws to achive coordination and balance development of the three factors, and to achieve the'good and fast' development of China's economy fundamentally. Thus, in the particular historical stage of China's industrialization and urbanization, a more intuitive problem is that:under the premise of maintaining sustainable economic growth, how to control the consumptions of energy, especially the one-off or fossil energy resources, and how to achieve a real reduction of carbon emissions in China.
Under the two clearly objectives and the current stage of China's excessive energy consumption, in particular the consumption of disposable fossil energy, which causes pollutants seriously overweight, especially over carbon emissions, the paper focuses on the energy saving countermeasures under China's sustainable economic growth and the carbon emission reduction countermeasures under China's continuous economic growth.
The research of resource saving countermeasures under China's sustained economic growth starting from the energy intensity targets in the coming2015and2020is mainly a model construction of energy consumption and the causing factors, in which the stage of industrialization and urbanization are considered.By setting the coming value of energy influencing factors, this paper predicts per capita energy consumption in2015and2020, and then gets the predicted energy intensity value which is slightly higher than the government planned value, which shows that China's future energy economical pressure still remains high. Finally, giving the deviation of setting the future value of the influencing factors, this paper makes univariate sensitivity analysis by fine-tuning these factors, and finds that the adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress will become preferred choice to achieve future energy intensity target or energy conservation of China, followed by changing energy relative prices and trade structure. Accordingly, this paper proposes the policy recommendations of energy savings which is that we must implement mandatory energy savings during active advocating energy savings. On this basis, the article also makes a comprehensive analysis by using the above model to establish the panel data model from the provincial and industrial point view of. Provincially, China's energy savings can be achived by optimizing the industrial structure and reducing the proportion of some industries, especially the high energy-consuming industries in the national economy; to enhance relative energy prices is not conducive to energy consumption savings of China, and it harms the low-energy, mid-energy and high-energy consumption units; improving the high efficiency energy such as electric power to replace the low efficiency energy such as coal is conducive to ultimate energy consumption savings of China, but different measures should be taken according to local conditions. From the industry perspective, there is a big difference of energy consumption between many industries within China's industrial sectors, so the significantly influencing factors and the size of impact of energy consumption are various in the differently industries with different energy consumption characteristics. Therefore, under the premising of China's sustained economic growth, the energy saving measures should be specific analysis and treated differently for different industries. Generally, the key energy-saving industry are manufacturing and the primary means is relying on the technological progress.
The research of carbon emission reduction countermeasures of China under sustainable economic growth is mainly through establishing the LSTR model of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and GDP per capita, by using the rate of economic growth and energy intensity as the threshold variable respectively. The results show that the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and GDP per capita is various under different economic environment (such as different economic growth rate and energy intensity). To achieving a win-win of carbon emission reduction and economic growth, and making the coordinating development between energy savings, carbon emissions and economic growth, we must work hard on how to reduce energy intensity. Next, this paper comprehensively analyze how to reduce energy intensity based on the point of view of the national, provinces and industries. By analyzing the impulse response and variance decomposition of the structure vector error correction model (SVECM) of the national energy intensity, we find that the energy price reform and improving the openness are the key reasons to reduce energy intensity quickly in the short-term, while in the long-term, we must vigorously develop renewable energy and clean energy to changer our energy consumption structure completely. From the provincial energy intensity impulse response and variance decomposition, we find that the carbon emission reduction should be treated differently for various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from different aspects. Overall, it's the key to reduce energy intensity of various provinces which is optimizing the energy consumption structure and industrial structure, and make technological progress and energy price adjusting as the main means of reducing energy intensity. Specifically, for the higher energy intensity group, which include the province of Qinghai, Guizhou, Shanxi and Ningxia, we have to make effort on the adjustment of the industrial structure and energy consumption; for the mid energy intensity group, which include Sichuan, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, we have focus on adjusting industrial structure and technological progress; for the low energy intensity group, which consist of Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shandong, Beijing, Hunan, Anhui, Tianjin and Henan, due to the role of the various factors are smaller, so the pressure on energy savings is smaller. By analyzing the impulse response and variance decomposition of industry energy intensity, we find that, after impacting various influencing factors, there exist the reverse effect between energy consumption structure, technological progress and energy prices, while a positive role for trade structure, both have the actively continuing effect to reducing energy intensity, in which the effect of energy consumption structure is the largest and the rest are less. From the variance decomposition results, it can be seen that the contributions of energy prices and energy consumption structure to energy savings is the largest and is small for technological progress and trade structure. Therefore, for the terms of industries, the focus of energy saving is still based on the deeply adjustment of the structure of energy consumption.
本文首先对资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长关系的研究文献进行了梳理,发现,主流的增长理论中,资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)经历了被忽视、重视和全面重视的不同发展阶段。随着自然资源(能源)因素在经济增长中作用的重视,以及经济增长对环境的破坏,尤其是自然资源(能源)的利用对环境污染的日益加重,如温室气体效应、酸雨及极端气候等,经济增长理论中的资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)问题,即三者的协调性、经济的可持续增长、能源的节约以及碳减排等问题成为了当前研究的核心。
那么,问题的另一方面即是,在资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)的约束下,经济是否可以持续增长?文章分别基于新古典增长理论和新增长理论(内生增长理论),将能源资源和碳排放引入到增长模型中,并对各个参数进行了适当的设置,通过均衡解的解析,得出经济持续增长的基本条件是能源消耗的增长率不能大于能源存量的增长率,也就是说能源存量能够满足能源消耗(需求)的同时,污染物的增长率不能大于0,也就是说环境质量不能随着经济产出规模的扩大而无限下降。
接下来,文章对中国经济增长的动因从能源消耗的角度进行了初步探索,并对中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的协调性进行了实证测算。能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的Granger因果检验表明能源消耗是碳排放和经济增长的Granger原因,能源消耗和碳排放互为Granger因果关系,碳排放和经济增长互为Granger因果关系。路径分析表明,能源消耗和经济增长呈双向因果关系,经济增长对碳排放存在因果关系,能源消耗对碳排放存在因果关系。这从一定程度上佐证了中国经济增长严重依靠能源消耗,并导致了环境不断恶化的结论。利用非线性规划技术,基于方向性距离函数衡量中国环境与经济产出的环境技术效率表明中国中西部地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长都处于失衡状况,而东部沿海发达地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济关系较为和谐,但是,整体上来讲中国各个省、市、自治区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长关系在不断在恶化。这些不协调性的佐证再一次说明中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长之间矛盾的尖锐性,中国经济绿色增长的实现任重而道远。
既然,在一定条件下经济增长是可持续的,即资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长是可以协调发展的,因此,应通过政策或市场规律使得资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长协调、平衡发展,从根本上实现中国经济“又好又快”的发展。于是,在当前中国工业化和城市化的特殊历史阶段,一个更为直观的问题便是：一、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,中国如何实现能源的节约,尤其是一次性能源或化石能源资源消耗的真正节约；二、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,如何实现中国碳排放的真正下降。
在这样两个明确的目标约束下以及中国能源的过度消耗,尤其是一次性化石能源的消耗,进而导致的污染物严重超标,尤其是碳排放严重超标之现状,文章重点讨论了中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策和中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策。
具体的,关于中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策研究,主要从中国未来2015年和2020年能源强度目标出发,首先通过构建能源消耗的影响因素模型,将具有阶段性特征的工业化程度、城市化率等因素纳入到了模型当中,通过合理的能源消耗影响因素未来值的设定,预测出未来即2015年和2020年的人均能源消耗量,进而得到了预测能源强度值。其略高于政府计划值,说明中国未来能源节约的压力还较大。考虑到影响因素未来值设定的偏差,通过微调这些因素,进行单变量敏感性分析,发现产业结构的调整和技术进步将成为实现中国未来能源强度目标或能源节约的首选,其次是能源相对价格和贸易结构的改变。据此,本文提出能源节约的政策建议为,在进行积极倡导的同时,必须实施能源的强制节约。在此基础上,文章还基于省域和行业的角度,利用上述模型,通过建立面板数据模型对中国的节能路径进行全面地分析。从省域的来看,优化中国产业结构,降低工业尤其是耗能较高的行业在国民经济中的比例,有助于中国能源的节约；能源相对价格的提高不利于全国及低能源消耗组、中能源消耗组、高能源消耗组能源的节约；提高电力等效率较高的能源替代效率较低的煤炭有利于中国各个省、市、自治区最终能源的节约,但是对于不同的省、市、自治区要区别对待,因地制宜。从行业的角度来看,由于中国工业部门内部的诸多工业行业的能源消耗之间存在较大的差异,不同能耗特征的各个工业行业的能源消耗的显著影响因素及其影响程度大小的不尽相同,因此在保证中国经济持续增长的前提下,节能措施的采取应对不同的工业行业进行具体分析、区别对待。总的来讲,中国能源节约的重点行业是制造业,主要手段是技术进步。
关于中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策研究,主要通过建立中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP关系的LSTR模型,并分别以经济增长速度和能源强度为阈值变量进行了分析。研究表明,中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP的关系在不同经济环境下(如不同的经济增长速度和能源强度)而不同。为了实现中国碳减排和经济增长之双赢,并使得能源节约、碳减排与经济增长协调发展,必须在如何降低能源强度上下功夫。文章还基于全国的角度、省域的角度和行业的角度对如何降低能源强度进行了全面的分析。由全国能源强度的结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM)的脉冲响应和方差分解分析可知,为了实现能源强度的下降,短期内,能源价格改革和扩大对外开放程度成为“迅速”降低中国能源强度的关键。长期而言,必须大力发展中国的可再生能源和清洁能源,彻底改变中国的能源消耗结构。由省域能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,对于各个省、市、自治区的碳减排要从不同方面(如产业政策等)区别对待。总体来讲,优化能源消耗结构和产业结构是降低各个省、市、自治区能源强度的关键,要以技术进步和能源价格调整做为降低能源强度主要手段。具体来说,对于高能源强度组的青海、贵州、山西和宁夏而言,主要在产业结构和能源消耗结构调整上下工夫；对于中能源消耗组的四川、重庆、黑龙江、陕西、云南、吉林、辽宁、河北、新疆、内蒙古和甘肃而言,应主要在调整产业结构和技术进步上下功夫；对于低能源消耗组的福建、广东、海南、江苏、上海、江西、广西、山东、北京、湖南、安徽、天津和河南而言,因各个影响因素的作用均较小,所以节能减排的压力也较小。由行业能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,各个影响因素受到冲击后,能源消耗结构、技术进步和能源价格具有反向作用,贸易结构具有正向作用,均对降低能源强度有积极的持续作用,其中作用最大的是能源消耗结构,其余的作用较小。从方差分解结果可以看出,能源相对价格和能源消耗结构的贡献最大,技术进步和贸易结构贡献较小。因此,对于行业而言,节能减排的重点依然是能源消耗结构的大力调整。
Resource conservation is a common concern of mankind. Environmental protection and economic growth remain a focus of academic research, in which energy conservation, carbon emission reduction and economic growth occupy the prominant position. If we recognize the status quo of the imbalance and uncoordination between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, that is due to China's extensive economic growth which brings about by the characteristics of the development of China's industrialization, the curing demand structure in the stage of the process of promoting urbanization and the low-end of the global industrial division. So, in facing of the energy shortage, the contradiction between carbon emissions and economic growth and the international pressure on the world's climate change, we should raise a comprehensive resource conservation and carbon emission reduction from different angles to achieve the commitments made by China in the international climate negotiations, that is the carbon dioxide emissions of per unit GDP (carbon intensity of GDP) decreased by40-45%in2020, compared to2005and the proportion of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption dropped to15%.
Firstly, this paper combs the research literature on the relationship between resources (energy), the environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth, and finds that the resources and environment have gone through different development stages during which they are once neglected, payed full attention to in the mainstream economic growth theory. With the emphasis on the role of natural resources (energy) factors in economic growth, and environmental damage resulted from economic growth, especially the increasing environmental pollution which is caused by the consumption of natural resources, such as greenhouse gas effect, the resources and environmental issues in the theory of economic growth, the coordination of them, that is, the sustainable economic growth, energy saving and carbon emission reduction has become the core of the current study.
However, another aspect of the problem is how we achieve sustainable economic growth under the constraints of resources (energy) and environment (carbon emissions). This paper, based on the neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory (endogenous growth theory) respectively, by bringing energy resources and carbon emissions into the economic growth model, and setting for the various parameters appropriately, and parsing through the equilibrium solution, reaches the basic conditions for sustained economic growth, that is the growth rate of energy consumption can not be greater than the stock of energy, which means that the stock of energy has to meet the energy demand, while the growth rate of the pollutants can not be greater than0, that is the quality of the environment can not be declined infinitely with the scale of the economic output.
Secondly, the article makes a preliminary study of the motivation of China's economic growth from the perspective of energy consumption, and does an empirical estimate of the coordination of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. The Granger causality tests of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth show that the energy consumption constitutes a mutual causal relationship with carbon emissions and economic growth; The path analysis show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; economic growth has causal relationship on carbon emissions and is also the same for energy consumption and carbon emissions, which, to some extent, indicates that China's economic growth is heavily dependent on energy consumption and leads to the environment deterioration. Next, by using the nonlinear programming techniques, the article measures the environment efficiency of the environment and economic output based on directional distance function. The results indicate that the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is in imbalance in central and western regions of China; while, it's harmonious in the developed eastern coastal regions; however, the relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth continues to deteriorate on the terms of each province in China. The uncoordinated relationship shows once again that the sharp contradictions between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, so there is still a long way to go for achieving China's economic green growth.
Since, under the certain conditions, economic growth is sustainable, that is the resources (energy), environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth can be developed coordinately, therefore, we shall adopt policies or market's laws to achive coordination and balance development of the three factors, and to achieve the'good and fast' development of China's economy fundamentally. Thus, in the particular historical stage of China's industrialization and urbanization, a more intuitive problem is that:under the premise of maintaining sustainable economic growth, how to control the consumptions of energy, especially the one-off or fossil energy resources, and how to achieve a real reduction of carbon emissions in China.
Under the two clearly objectives and the current stage of China's excessive energy consumption, in particular the consumption of disposable fossil energy, which causes pollutants seriously overweight, especially over carbon emissions, the paper focuses on the energy saving countermeasures under China's sustainable economic growth and the carbon emission reduction countermeasures under China's continuous economic growth.
The research of resource saving countermeasures under China's sustained economic growth starting from the energy intensity targets in the coming2015and2020is mainly a model construction of energy consumption and the causing factors, in which the stage of industrialization and urbanization are considered.By setting the coming value of energy influencing factors, this paper predicts per capita energy consumption in2015and2020, and then gets the predicted energy intensity value which is slightly higher than the government planned value, which shows that China's future energy economical pressure still remains high. Finally, giving the deviation of setting the future value of the influencing factors, this paper makes univariate sensitivity analysis by fine-tuning these factors, and finds that the adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress will become preferred choice to achieve future energy intensity target or energy conservation of China, followed by changing energy relative prices and trade structure. Accordingly, this paper proposes the policy recommendations of energy savings which is that we must implement mandatory energy savings during active advocating energy savings. On this basis, the article also makes a comprehensive analysis by using the above model to establish the panel data model from the provincial and industrial point view of. Provincially, China's energy savings can be achived by optimizing the industrial structure and reducing the proportion of some industries, especially the high energy-consuming industries in the national economy; to enhance relative energy prices is not conducive to energy consumption savings of China, and it harms the low-energy, mid-energy and high-energy consumption units; improving the high efficiency energy such as electric power to replace the low efficiency energy such as coal is conducive to ultimate energy consumption savings of China, but different measures should be taken according to local conditions. From the industry perspective, there is a big difference of energy consumption between many industries within China's industrial sectors, so the significantly influencing factors and the size of impact of energy consumption are various in the differently industries with different energy consumption characteristics. Therefore, under the premising of China's sustained economic growth, the energy saving measures should be specific analysis and treated differently for different industries. Generally, the key energy-saving industry are manufacturing and the primary means is relying on the technological progress.
The research of carbon emission reduction countermeasures of China under sustainable economic growth is mainly through establishing the LSTR model of carbon dioxide emissions per capita and GDP per capita, by using the rate of economic growth and energy intensity as the threshold variable respectively. The results show that the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and GDP per capita is various under different economic environment (such as different economic growth rate and energy intensity). To achieving a win-win of carbon emission reduction and economic growth, and making the coordinating development between energy savings, carbon emissions and economic growth, we must work hard on how to reduce energy intensity. Next, this paper comprehensively analyze how to reduce energy intensity based on the point of view of the national, provinces and industries. By analyzing the impulse response and variance decomposition of the structure vector error correction model (SVECM) of the national energy intensity, we find that the energy price reform and improving the openness are the key reasons to reduce energy intensity quickly in the short-term, while in the long-term, we must vigorously develop renewable energy and clean energy to changer our energy consumption structure completely. From the provincial energy intensity impulse response and variance decomposition, we find that the carbon emission reduction should be treated differently for various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from different aspects. Overall, it's the key to reduce energy intensity of various provinces which is optimizing the energy consumption structure and industrial structure, and make technological progress and energy price adjusting as the main means of reducing energy intensity. Specifically, for the higher energy intensity group, which include the province of Qinghai, Guizhou, Shanxi and Ningxia, we have to make effort on the adjustment of the industrial structure and energy consumption; for the mid energy intensity group, which include Sichuan, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, we have focus on adjusting industrial structure and technological progress; for the low energy intensity group, which consist of Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shandong, Beijing, Hunan, Anhui, Tianjin and Henan, due to the role of the various factors are smaller, so the pressure on energy savings is smaller. By analyzing the impulse response and variance decomposition of industry energy intensity, we find that, after impacting various influencing factors, there exist the reverse effect between energy consumption structure, technological progress and energy prices, while a positive role for trade structure, both have the actively continuing effect to reducing energy intensity, in which the effect of energy consumption structure is the largest and the rest are less. From the variance decomposition results, it can be seen that the contributions of energy prices and energy consumption structure to energy savings is the largest and is small for technological progress and trade structure. Therefore, for the terms of industries, the focus of energy saving is still based on the deeply adjustment of the structure of energy consumption.
引文
① 对于内生增长理论,已有部分学者尝试将能源资源和环境同时纳入到模型中,如王海建(2000)关于《资源约束、环境污染与内生经济增长》的论述。
① 数据来源于《BP世界能源统计年鉴》。
① 数据来自于《中国统计年鉴(2011)》,按当年价计算。
① 数据来自于《中国统计年鉴(2011)》,按当年价计算。
① 数据来自于《中国统计年鉴(2011)》,按当年价计算。
[1]陈春华.江苏省经济、能源与环境系统协调与可持续发展研究[D].江苏大学博士论文,2009.
[2]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究,2009(4)：41-55.
[3]陈军.中国非可再生能源战略评价模型与实证研究[D].中国地质大学博士论文.2008.05.01.
[4]陈吉宁、邹骥.基于CGE模型的Co2减排对中国经济的影响[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2005(12)：1621-1624.
[5]陈文颖、高鹏飞、何建坤.二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响[J],清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(6)：744-747.
[6]蔡昉、都阳、王美艳.经济发展方式转变与节能减排内在动力[J].经济研究,2008(6)：4-11.
[7]曹永福.格兰杰因果性检验评述[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2006(1)：155-160.
[8]曹玉书、尤卓雅.资源约束、能源替代与可持续发展——基于经济增长理论的国外研究综述[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)预印本,2010(4)：5-13.
[9]崔民选.中国能源发展报告[M].第1版.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006.
[10]D.梅多斯等,增长的极限[M].第5版.北京：商务印书馆,1984.
[11]大卫.李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].第1版.北京：光明日报出版社2009.40-42.
[12]邓玉勇,杜铭华,雷仲敏,基于能源一经济一环境(3E)系统的模型方法研究综述[J],甘肃社会科学,2006(3)：209.
[13]樊纲、苏铭、曹静.最终消费与碳减排责任的经济学分析[J].经济研究,2010(1)：4-14.
[14]方雯.我国财政政策传导机制与动态有效性的计量研究[D].吉林大学博士论文,2010.06.01.
[15]国家计委节能.能源预测模型开发与应用[M].第1版.北京：中国计划出版社,1988.
[16]国涓、项吉宁、郭崇慧.空间影响与环境库兹涅茨曲线：基于空间经济计量方法的实证分析[J].数理统计与管理,2009(7)：679-684.
[17]郭小红.中国金融发展对产业集群的影响[D].重庆大学硕士论文.2011.04.01.
[18]国务院发展研究中心课题组.全球温室气体减排：理论框架和解决方案[J].经济研究,2009(3)：4-13.
[19]韩君、梁亚民.趋势外推与ARMA组合的能源需求预测模型[J].兰州商学院学报,2005(6)：92-95.
[20]侯建朝.中国能源与经济之间关系的模型及实证分析[D].华北电力大学(北京)博士论文.2009.06.01.
[21]胡锦涛.坚定不移沿着中国特色社会主义道路前进为全面建成小康社会而奋斗——在中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会上的报告[J].党建,2012.12.01.
[22]韩玉军、 陆旸.经济增长与环境的关系——基于对C02环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2009(3)：5-11.
[23]何晓萍、刘希颖、林艳苹.中国城市化进程中的电力需求预测[J].经济研究,2009(1)：118-130.
[24]郝家龙,翟纯红.循环经济与资源城市成长路径[M].第1版.北京：新华出版社,2006.18-20.
[25]杭鸣雷.能源价格对能源强度的影响——以国内制造业为例[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(12)：93-100.
[26]韩智勇、魏一鸣、范英,中国能源强度与经济结构变化特征研究[J],数理统计与管理,2004(11),9-15.
[27]鞠美庭,张裕芬,李洪远.能源规划环境影响评价[M].第1版.北京：化学工业出版社,2006.102-107.
[28]荆全忠、苏同营.基于灰色理论的煤炭需求预测模型研究[J].山东科技大学学报(自然科学版),2004(1)：91-93.
[29]孔宪丽.中国钢铁工业供需影响因素分析及其景气指数的开发与应用研究[D].吉林大学硕士论文,2004.05.01
[30]林伯强.中国能源需求的经济计量分析[J].统计研究,2001(10)：34-39.
[31]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长：基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003,11：18-27.
[32]林伯强.结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测——以中国电力行业为例[J].经济研究,2003(6)：57-65.
[33]林伯强、魏巍贤、李丕东.中国长期煤炭需求：影响与政策选择[J].经济研究,2007(2)：48-58.
[34]林伯强、蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理 世界,2009(4)：27-36.
[35]林伯强、姚昕、刘希颖.节能和碳排放约束下的中国能源结构战略调整[J].中国社会科学,2010(1)：58-71.
[36]林伯强、刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放：影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8)：66-77.
[37]林伯强、孙传旺.如何在保障中国经济增长前提下完成碳减排目标[J].中国社会科学,2011(1)：64-76.
[38]鲁传一.资源与环境经济学[M].第1版.北京：清华大学出版社,2004.72-73
[39]刘豹.能源模型与系统分析[M].第1版.北京：能源出版社,1984.
[40]刘凤良,郭杰,资源可耗竭、知识积累与内生经济增长[J],中央财经大学学报,2002(11)：64-67.
[41]刘光中、颜科琦.组合神经网络模型对电力需求的预测[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(1)：14-17.
[42]刘华军、闫庆悦、孙曰瑶.国二氧化碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线——基于时间序列与面板数据的经验估计[J].中国科技论坛,2011(4)：108-113.
[43]罗汉武.能源与经济、环境协调发展的测度分析及政策研究[D].天津大学博士论文.2009.08.01
[44]刘玮、童光荣.环境视角下中国工业行业能源效率特征及影响因素[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2010(3)：33-37.
[45]刘笑萍、张永正、长青.基于EKC模型的中国实现减排目标分析与减排对策[J].管理世界,2009(4)：75-82.
[46]李勇.基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的中国经济增长与环境污染相互关系的初步评价.青岛大学硕士研究生论文,2007.
[47]李子奈、潘文卿.计量经济学[M].第2版.北京：高等教育出版社,2005.
[48]马尔萨斯.人口原理[M].第1版.西安：陕西师范大学出版社,2008.37-38.
[49]马军杰、陈震、尤建新.省域一次能源C02排放的空间计量经济分析[J].技术经济,2010(12)：62-67.
[50]马中.环境与资源经济学概论[M].第1版.北京：高等教育出版社,1999.184-185.
[51]穆勒.政治经济学原理[M].第1版.北京：华夏出版社,2009.115-117.
[52]马子红,胡宏斌,自然资源与经济增长：理论评述[J],经济论坛,2006(7)：46.
[53]倪培民.再铸因果概念[J],世界哲学,2004(1)：57-66.
[54]宁云才.煤炭需求预测的复合小波神经网络模型[J].煤炭学报,2003(1)：108-112.
[55]庞皓、陈述云.格兰杰因果性检验的有效性及其应用[J],统计研究,1999(11)：42-45.
[56]潘祺志.我国工业能耗强度变动与节能路径选择[D].东北财经大学博士论文.2010.12.01.
[57]钱易,唐孝炎.环境保护与可持续发展.北京：高等教育出版社,2003.137-138.
[58]曲格平.能源环境可持续发展研究[M].第1版.北京：中国环境科学出版社,2003.158-160.
[59](美)S.P.帕克.能源百科全书(程惠尔等译)[M].第1版.北京：科学出版社,1992.
[60]苏为华、张崇辉.关于异质性假说的中国EKC再检验[J].统计研究,2011(12)：66-71.
[61]涂正革.环境、资源与工业增长的协调性[J].经济研究,2008(2)：93-104.
[62]田立新等著,能源经济系统分析[M].第1版.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[63]王海建,资源环境约束之下的一类内生经济增长模型[J],预测,1999(4)：36-8.
[64]王海建,耗竭性资源管理与人力资本积累内生经济增长[J],管理工程学报,2000(3)：11-14.
[65]王海建.资源约束、环境污染与内生经济增长[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2000(1)：76-80.
[66]王俊、孔令夷.非线性时间序列分析STAR模型及其在经济学中的应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究2006(1)：77-85.
[67]王立杰、孙继湖.基于灰色系统理论的煤炭需求预测模型[J].煤炭学报,2002(3)：333-336.
[68]王维国.协调发展的理论与方法研究[D].博士学位论文,1998.40-51.
[69]王小鲁、樊纲、刘鹏.中国经济增长方式转换和增长可持续性[J].经济研究,2009(1)：4-16.
[70]王雪娜.中国能源类碳源排放量估算办法[D].北京林业大学硕士论文,2006.
[71]王彦彭.能源可持续利用、环境治理与内生经济增长[J].管理世界,2011(4)：1-4.
[72]王妍、李京文.中国煤炭消费现状与未来煤炭需求预测[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2008(3)：152-155.
[73]吴敬琏.中国应当走一条什么样的工业化道路?[J].管理世界,2006(8)：1-7.
[74]吴巧生.中国工业化进程中的能源消耗强度变动及影响因素——基于费雪(Fisher)指数分解方法的实证分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2010(5)：44-50.
[75]武亚军,宣晓伟.环境税经济理论及对中国的应用分析[M].第1版.北京：经济科学出版社,2002.
[76]吴宗鑫,陈文颖,以煤为主多元化的清洁能源战略[M],北京：清华大学出版社,2001：203-229.
[77]许光月、宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济,2010(5)：37-47.
[78]邢璐、邹骥、石磊.小康社会目标下的居民生活能源需求预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010(6)：131-135.
[79]解振华.2007中国节能减排(政策篇)[M],中国发展出版社2008：322-343.
[80]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(上卷)[M].第1版.北京：商务印书馆,2002.58-80.
[81]叶汝求.环境与贸易[M].第1版.北京：中国环境科学出版社,2001.
[82]喻萧萧、王宏艳,促进山东城市化与产业结构协调发展[J],北方经济,2007(2),5-8.
[83]喻新安、龚绍东、赵西三等,河南省经济结构调整和产业优化升级新探,河南社会科学[J],2007(5),11-17.
[84]杨韚韚、裴庆冰.温室气体减排的绝对限制与强度限制分析[J],经济研究导刊,2010(32)：24-26.
[85]杨俊、邵汉华.我国工业行业增长与环境协调性评价——基于方向性距离函数实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2009(12)：45-47.
[86]杨洋、王非、李国平.能源价格、产业结构、技术进步与中国能源强度的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2008(11)：103-105.
[87](英)朱迪·丽丝.自然资源：分配、经济学与政策[M].第1版.北京：商务印书馆,2002.345-349.
[88]朱达.能源一环境的经济分析与政策研究[M].第1版.北京：中国环境科学出版社,2000：124-143.
[89]张阿玲,郑淮,适合中国国情的经济、能源、环境(3E)模型[J],清华大学学报(自然科学版),2002(12)：1616-1620.
[90]张帆,李东.环境与自然资源经济学[M].第1版.上海：上海人民出版社,2007.142.
[91]翟凡,李善同,一个中国经济的可计算一般均衡模型[J],数量经济技术经济研究,1999(3)：38-44.
[92]张宏霞.中国地方政府投资效应研究[D].东北财经大学博士论文.2010.12.01.
[93]张亮.推进能源价格改革实现节能减排的难点与对策优化设计[J].当代经济管理(优先出版),2012(11)：19-23.
[94]赵丽霞、魏巍贤,能源与经济增长模型研究,预测,1998(6),14-16.
[95]周建.经济转型期中国能源需求的长期均衡及短期波动：1978—-2005[J].南开经济 研究.2007(3)：3-17.
[96]赵进文,闵捷,2005a：《央行货币政策操作效果非对称性实证研究》,《经济研究》,第2期.
[97]赵进文,闵捷,2005b：《央行货币政策操作政策拐点与开关函数的测定》,《经济研究》第12期.
[98]赵进文,闵捷,2006：《我国经济增长波动非线性特征的实证建模研究——兼谈货币政策操作对经济增长影响的特点》,《金融学季刊》第1期.
[99]赵进文、范继涛.经济增长与能源消耗内在依从关系的实证研究[J].经济研究,2007(8)：31-42.
[100]张军、陈诗一、Gary Jefferson结构改革与中国工业增长[J],经济研究,2009(7)：4-20.
[101]张晓峒：《计量经济分析》[M],南开大学出版社,2000.
[102]张晓炯Eviews使用指南与案例[M].第1版.北京：机械工业出版社,2007.
[103]赵媛.可持续能源发展战略[M].第1版.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2001.164.
[104]张友国.经济发展方式变化对中国碳排放强度的影响[J].经济研究,2010(4)：120-132.
[105]周建、李子奈Granger因果关系检验的适用性[J],清华大学学报(自然科学版)2004(3)：358-361.
[106]周扬、吴文祥、胡莹、等.基于组合模型的能源需求预测[J].中国人口资.源与环境,2010(4)：63-68.
[107]张珍清.我国A股市场流动性溢价的实证分析[D].兰州商学院硕士论文.2010.05.30.
[108]百度文库.树立和落实科学发展观.http://wenku.baidu.com/view/7c45fd20ccbffl 21 dd3683e2.html
[109]百度文库.中国制造：即将告别“世界工厂”时代?http://wenku.baidu.com/view/83654a255901020207409ca8.html
[110]百度文库.树立和落实科学发展观.http://wenku.baidu.com/view/7c45fd20ccbffl21dd3683e2.html
[111]大众网.解决深层次矛盾和问题创造科学发展新优势.http://www.dzwww.com/2012/sdlh/bwkb/201202/t20120227_6950047.htm
[112]关于能源明天更美好.http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_43afbe730100b91a.html
[113]基于环境因素的内生经济增长研究评述. http://www.reader8.cn/data/20091101/2O4296.html
[114]经济增长作用机制http://www.xchen.com.cn/jjlw/jjzzlw/534494.html
[115]科学发展观与生态环境保护.http://www.zwbk.org/mylemmashow.aspx?lid=771
[116]环境因素经济增长http://www.xchen.com.cn/jjlw/jjzzlw/534484.html
[117]中国网.中国十五年环保路线图.http://www.china.com.cn/v/zhuanti/qhdh/2010-11/21/content_21389098.htm.
[118]Aghion, Rand Howitt, P.,1998, Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[119]Akarca, A-T-, Long, T-V-,1980, "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP: Reexamin -ation", Journal of Energy and Development,5,326-331.
[120]Ambec Stefan and Philippe Barla,2002, "ATheoretical Foundation of the Porter Hypothesis", Economics Letters,75(3),355-360.
[121]Anderies, J.M.,2003, "Economic Development, Demographics, and Renewable Resources:A Dynamical Systems Approach", Environment and Development Economics, Vol.45 (8),219-246.
[122]Ang B. W.,2004, "Decomposition Analysis for Policy Making in Energy:Which is the Preferred Method? ", Energy Policy, Vol.32,1131-1139.
[123]Barro, R.,1990, "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.98(5), Oct.,103-125.
[124]Baumol, W. J.,1988, The theory of environmental policy, Cambridge University Press.
[125]Beaumont Nicola J. and RobertTinch,2004, "Abatement Cost Curves:A Viable Management Tool for Enablingthe Achievement of Win-Win Waste Reduction Strategies?" Journal of Environmental Management,71(3),207-215.
[126]Bentzen, J. and Engsted, T.,1993, "Short-and Long-run Elasticities in Energy Demand:a Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol.15,9-16.
[127]Bentzen J.,1994, "An Empirical Analysis of Gasoline Demand in Denmark Using Cointegration Techniques", Energy Economics, Vol.16,139-143.
[128]Bovenberg, A. and Smulders, S.,1995,"Environmental Quality and Pollution-augmenting Technological Change in a Two-sector Endogenous Growth Model", Journal of Public Economics,,Vol.57(3), July,369-391.
[129]Boyd G.A. and J.D. McClelland,1999, "The Impact of Environmental Constraints on Productivity Improvement in Integrated Paper Plants", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,38(2),121-142.
[130]Boyd Gale A., George Tolley and Joseph Pang,2002, "Plant Level Productivity, Efficiency and Environmental Performance of the Container Glass Industry", Environmental and Resource Economics,23,29-43.
[131]Brown, S.B.,1983, "An Aggregate Petroleum Consumption Model", Energy Economics, Vol.5,27-30.
[132]Brown, S.P.A. and K.R. Phillips,1991, "U.S. Oil Demand and Conservation", Contemporary PolicyIssues, Vol. Ⅸ,67-72.
[133]Cerin Pontus,2006,"Bringing Economic Opportunity into Line With Environmental Influence:A discussion on the Coase Theorem and the Porter and van der Linde hypothesis", Ecological Economics,56(2),209-225.
[134]Chambers R., Y.H. Chung and R. Fare,1996, "Benefit and Distance Function", Journal of Economic Theory,70,407-419.
[135]Cheng, B.L., Lai, T.W.,1997, "An Investingation for Cointegration and Causality between Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan", Energy Economics, 19,435.444.
[136]Chichilnisky,Graciela and Heal, Geoffrey and Beltratti,Andrea,1995, "The Green Golden Rule",Economics Letters,Elsevier,vol.49(2),175-179.
[137]Chung, Y.H., Fare, R and S. Grosskopf,1997, "Productivity and Undesirable Outputs:A Directional Distance Function Approach", Journal of Environmental Management, Vol.51,229-240.
[138]Cole, M. A., Rayner, A. J. and Bates, J. M.,1997, "The Environmental Kuznets Curve:An Empirical Analysis", Environment and Development Economics, Vol.2, 401-416.
[139]Dasgupta, P., & Heal, G,1974, "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources", Review of Economic Studies (Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources), Vol.41, Dec.,328.
[140]Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Wang, H. and Wheeler, D.,2002, "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.16,147-168.
[141]D. I.,1993, "Energy Use and Economic Growth in the USA:a Multivariate Approach", Energy Economics,15,137-150.
[142]Dietz T., Rosa E. A.,1994, "Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence, and Technology", Human Ecology Review, Vol.1,277-300.
[143]Ehrlich, P. R., Holdren, J. P.,1971, "Impact of Population Growth", Science, Vol.171, 1212-1217.
[144]Engle, R., and Ganger, C.,1987,"Cointergration and Error Correction: Regresentation, Estimitation, and Testing", EconimetricaVol.55, pp251-276.Engle, R.F. and Granger C.W.J,1987, "Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation, and Testing", Economtrica, Vol.55,251-276.
[145]Fare, R., Grosskopf, S. and Pasurka, Carl A.,2001, "Accounting for air pollution emissions inmeasuring statemanufacturing productivity growth". Journal of Regional Science, Vol.41(3), Aug.,381-409.
[146]Fare, R., Grosskopf, S. and Pasurka, Carl A.,2007, "Environmental Production Functions and Environmental Directional Distance Functions", Energy, Vol.32(7), July,1055-1066.
[147]Fare R., S. Grosskopf, K. Lovell and C. Pasurka,1989, "Multilateral Productivity Comparisons When Some Outputs are Undesirable:A nonparametric Approach", Review of Economics and Statistics,71,90-98.
[148]Feichtinger Gustav, Richard F. Hartl, Peter M. Kort and Vladimir M. Veliov,2005, "Environmental Policy, the Porter Hypothesis and the Composition of Capital: Effect so Learning and Technological Progress", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,50(2),434-446.
[149]Fouquet Roger,1995, "The Impact of VAT Introduction on UK Residential Energy Demand:An Investigation Using the Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol.17,237-248.
[150]Friedl, B., Getzner, M.,2003, "Determinants of CO2 Emissions in a Small Open Economy", Ecological Economics, Vol.45,133-148.
[151]Galeotti, M. and Lanza, A.,1999, "Desperately Seeking (Environmental) Kuznets", Working Paper, CRE No S 199901.
[152]Galeotti, M., Lanza, A. and Pauli, F.,2006, "Reassessing the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emissions:A Robustness Exercise", Ecological Economics, Vol.57, 152-163.
[153]Gastaldo, S-and Ragot, L.,1996,"Sustainable Development through Endogenous Growth Models·INSEE", Unpublished.
[154]Gately, D. and P. Rappoport,1988, "The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increase of 1970s", The Energy Journal, Vol.8,93-107.
[155]Glyfason, T.,2001,"Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development", European Economic Review, Vol.45 (46),847-859.
[156]Gonzalo J.,1994,"Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-run Equilibrium Relationships", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.60,203-233.
[157]Granger C.W.J.,1969, "Investigation of Casual Relation by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Models", Econometrica, Vol.37,424-438.
[158]Granger, C.W.J., Terasvirta, T.,1993, Modeling Non-liner Economic Relationships, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[159]Grimaud, A. and Rouge, L.,2003,"Non-renewable Resources and Growth with Vertical Innovations:Optimum, Equilibrium and Economic Policies", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol,45(2), March,433-453.
[160]Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B.,1991, "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement", National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 3914, NBER, Cambridge, MA.
[161]Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B.,1995, "Economic growth and the environment", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.112,353-378.
[162]Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics:Textbooks and Monographs, Vol.155. Dekker, New York, Basel and Hong Kong,507-552.
[163]Hanes Egli.,2001, "Are Cross-Country Studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Misleading New Evidence from Time Series Data for Germany", Discussion Paper 10/2001 of Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University of Greifswald.
[164]Hing Lin Chan and Shu Kam Lee,1997, "Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Coal in China", Energy Economics, Vol.19,271-287.
[165]Hogan W.W.,1989"A Dynamic Putty-semi-putty Model of Aggregate Energy Demand", Energy Economics, Vol.11,53-69.
[166]Holtz-Eakin, D. and Thomas M. Selden,1995, "Stoking the Fires? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth", Journal of Public Economics, vol.57,85-101.
[167]Holtz-Eakin, D., W. Newey, and H. S. Rosen,1988. Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data, Econometrica, Vol.56, N o.6,1371-1395.
[168]Hotelling, H.,1931, "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.39,137-175.
[169]Hung, V., Chang, P., and Blackburn, K.,1994, Endogenous Growth, Environment and R&D, In:Carraro, C. (Ed.) Trade, innovation and environment Kluwer Academic Press.
[170]Hwang, D.B.K., Gum, B.,1992, "The Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP:The Case of Taiwan", Journal of Energy and Development,16,219-226.
[171]IEA,2008, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, IEA, Paris.
[172]Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H, Shin, Y.C.2003,"Testing for unit roots in Heterogeneous panel". Journal of Econometrics, Vol.115(1), July,53-74.
[173]IPCC,2007, "Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change", Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
[174]Jaffe, A. B., S. R. Peterson, P. R. Portney, and R. N. Stavins,1995. Environmental regulation and the competitiveness of US manufacturing:what does the evidence tell us?, Journal of Economic literature 33,132-163.Jean Bosco Sabuhoro and Bruno Larue,1997, "The Market Efficiency Hypothesis:the Case of Coffee and Cocoa Futures", Agricultural Economics, Vol.16,171-184.
[175]Johansen, S.,1988, "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Cectors", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.12,231-254.
[176]Johansen S. and Juselius K.,1990, "The Full Information Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Inference on Cointegration-With Application to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52,169-210.
[177]Johansen S. and Juselius K.,1994, "Identification of the Long-run and the Short-run Structure:an Application to the ISLM Model", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.63, 7-36.
[178]John, Asafu-Adjaye,2000, "The Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth:Time series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries", Energy Economics,22,615-625.
[179]Julian I. Silk, FrederickL. Joutz,1997, "Short and Long-run Elasticities in US Residential Electricity Demand:A Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol. 19(4), Oct.,493-513.
[180]Kathleen, M. Day. And Quentin Grafton, R.,2001, "Growth and the Environment in Canada:an Empirical Analysis", Disscussion Paper of the Australian National University.
[181]K. Fisher-Vanden, Gary H. Jefferson, Hongmei Liu, Quan Tao.,2004,"What is driving China's decline in energy intensity",Resource and Energy Economics, Vol.26 (1),March,77-97.
[182]Kraft, J., Kraft, A.,1978, "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP", Journal of Energy and Development,3,401-403.
[183]Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.D., Schmidt P. and Shin, Y.,1992, "Testing the Null of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root", Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54,159-178.
[184]Lantz V, Feng Q.,2006, "Assessing Income, Population, and Technology Impacts on CO2 Emissions in Canada, Where's the EKC?", Ecological Economics, vol.57, 229-238.
[185]Lester C Hunt and Yasushi Ninomiya,2005,"Primary Energy Demand in Japan:An Empirical Analysis of Long-term Trends and Future CO2 Emissions", Energy Policy, Vol.33,1409-1424.
[186]Levin, A., Lin, C. F. and Chu, C.S. J.2002, "Unit Root Tests in Panel data: Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties". Journal of Econometrics, Vol.108(1), May,1-24.
[187]Ligthart, J.E. and Van Der Ploeg, F.,1994,"Tollution, the Cost Growth", Economic Letters, Volume 46(4), Dec.,339-349.
[188]L Miguel Garcia-Cerrutti,2000,"Estimating Elasticities of Residential Energy Demand from Panel County Data Using Dynamic Random Variables Models with Heteroskedastic and Correlated Error Terms", Resource and Energy Economics, Vol. 22,335-366.
[189]Love, I., and L. Zicchino,2006. Financial development and dynamic investment behavior:Evidence from panel VAR, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 46,190-210.
[190]Luenberger, D.G.,1995, Microeconomic Theory, McGraw-Hill, Boston. Kraft, J., Kraft, A.,1978, "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP", Journal ofEnergy and Development", Vol.3,401-403.
[191]Luukkonen, R., Saikkonen, P., Terasvirta, T.,1988 "Testing Linearity against Smooth Transition Autoregression, Biometrika", Vol.75(3), Feb., pp491-499.
[192]Lu Xuedu, Jiahua Pan and Ying Chen,2006, "Sustaining Economic Growth in China under Energy and Climate Security Constraints", China and World Economy,Vol.14(6),Nov.,85-97.
[193]Mar, B. and Bakken, O.,1981, "Applying Classical Control Theory to Energy-Economics Modeling—A Tool To Explain Model Behavior in Response to Varied Policy Decisions and Changing Inputs", Management Science, vol.27(1), Jan.,81-92.
[194]Martin Wagner,2008, "The Carbon Kuznets Curve:A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?", Resource and Energy Economics, Vol.30, pp.388-408.
[195]Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Bengochea-Morancho, A.,2004, "Pooled Mean Group Estimation for an Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2", Economics Letters, Vol. 82(1), Jan.,121-126.
[196]Masih, A.M.M., Masih, R.,1997, "On the Temporal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Real Income and Prices:Some New Evidence from Asian-Energy Dependent NICs Based on a Multivariate Cointegration Vector Error-correction Approach", Journal of Policy Modeling,4119,417-440.
[197]Mohtadi, H.,1996, "Environment, Growth and Optimal Policy Design", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.63(1), Dec.,119-140.
[198]Moomaw W. R and Unruh G. C.,1997, "Are Environmental Kuznets Curve Misleading US? The Case of CO2 Emissions, Special Issue on Environmental Kuznets Curves", Environmental and Development Economics, Vol.2,451-463.
[199]Mudit Kulshreshtha and Jyoti K. Parikh,2000,"Modeling Demand for Coal in India: Vector Autoregressive Models with Cointegrated Variables", Energy, Vol.25, 149-168.Pindyck R.S.,1980, The Structure of World Energy Demand. Cambridge [M], MA:MIT Press.
[200]Munasinghe. Mohan,1995, "Making Economic Growth More Sustainable", Ecological Economics, vol.15,121-124.
[201]Panayotou, T.,2000,"Economic Growth and the Environment", CID Working Paper.
[202]Panayotou, T., Sachs, J. and Peterson, A.,1999, "Developing Countries and the Control of Climate Change:A Theoretical Perspective and Policy Implications", CAERⅡ Discussion Paper, No.44.
[203]Pedroni, P.,1995. Panel cointegration:asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests, with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Indiana University Working Papers in Economics, No.95-013.
[204]Pezzey, J.C. & Withagen, C.A.,1998,"The Rise, Fall and Sustainability of Capital-Resource Economies", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol.100 (2), 513-527.
[205]Phillips, P.C.B., Perron, P.,1988, "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression", Biometrica,75,335-346.
[206]Ramanathan R.,1999,"Short-run and Long-run Elasticities of Gasoline Demand in India:An Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration", Energy Economics, Vol.21, 321-330.
[207]Ramanathan, R.,2005, "An Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Countries of the Middle East and North Africa", Energy, Vol.30(15), Nov.,2831-2842.
[208]Ramanathan, R.,2006, "A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol.73(5), June,483-494.
[209]Rasche, R.H. & Tatom, J.A.,1977, "The Effects of the New Energy Regime on Economic Capacity, Production, and Prices",Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol.59 (5),212.
[210]Rebelo, S.,1991,"Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Political Economy,Vol.99 (3),500-521.
[211]Romer, P.,1986,"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.94(5),1002-1037.
[212]Romer, P.,1990,"Endogenous Technological Change", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.98(5),71-102.
[213]Sachs, J.D. & Warner, A.M.,1997,"Fundamental Sources of Long-run Growth", American Economic Review, Vol.87 (2),184-198.
[214]Samimi, Rodney,1995"RoadTransport Energy Demand in Australia:A Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol.17,329-340.
[215]Selden, T. M. and Song, D.,1994, "Environmental Quality and Development:Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions? ", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management", vol.27(2), Sep.,147-162.
[216]Shafik, N., Bandyopadhyay, S.,1992, "Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Time Series and Cross-country Evidence", World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.904.
[217]Sims, C.A.,1972, "Money, income, and causality", American Economic Review, September, Vol.62(4), Sep.,540-552.
[218]Soumyananda Dinda,2004, "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:A Survey ",Ecological Economics, Vol.49(4),Aug.,431-455.
[219]Stern, D.I.,2000, "A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomy", Energy Economics,22,267-283.
[220]Stiglitz, J.,1974, "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources:Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths", Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources, Vol.41, March,123-137.
[221]Stokey, N.,1998," Are There Limits to Growth?", International Economic Review, Vol.39(1),Feb.,1-31.
[222]Terasvirta, T.,1998, "Modeling economic relationships with smooth transition regressions. In:Ullah, A., Giles, D.E.A. (Eds.).Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics. Statistics:Textbooks and Monographs, Vol.155. Dekker, New York, Basel and Hong Kong,507-552.
[223]Watkins G.C.,1991, "Short-and Long-term Equilibria:Relationship between First and Third Generation Dynamic Factor Demand Models", Energy Economics, Vol. 13,2-9.
[224]Yang, H.Y.,2000, "ANote on the Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP: Further Results", Energy Economics,6,168-190.
[225]Yi,2000, "Dynamic Energy Demand Models:A Comparison", Energy Economics, Vol.22,285-297.
[226]Yoichi Kaya,1989, "Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios", Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group, IPCC, Paris.
[227]Yu, Eden S.H. and Been-Kwei Hwang,1984. "The Relationship between Energy and GNP:Further Results " Energy Economics. Vol.6, No.3,186-190.
[228]Yu, Eden S. H. and Jang C. Jin,1992. "CointegrationTests of Energy Consumption, Income, and Employment" Resources and Energy HVol.14, No.3H,259-266.
① 数据来源于《BP世界能源统计年鉴》。
① 数据来自于《中国统计年鉴(2011)》,按当年价计算。
① 数据来自于《中国统计年鉴(2011)》,按当年价计算。
① 数据来自于《中国统计年鉴(2011)》,按当年价计算。
[1]陈春华.江苏省经济、能源与环境系统协调与可持续发展研究[D].江苏大学博士论文,2009.
[2]陈诗一.能源消耗、二氧化碳排放与中国工业的可持续发展[J].经济研究,2009(4)：41-55.
[3]陈军.中国非可再生能源战略评价模型与实证研究[D].中国地质大学博士论文.2008.05.01.
[4]陈吉宁、邹骥.基于CGE模型的Co2减排对中国经济的影响[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2005(12)：1621-1624.
[5]陈文颖、高鹏飞、何建坤.二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响[J],清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(6)：744-747.
[6]蔡昉、都阳、王美艳.经济发展方式转变与节能减排内在动力[J].经济研究,2008(6)：4-11.
[7]曹永福.格兰杰因果性检验评述[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2006(1)：155-160.
[8]曹玉书、尤卓雅.资源约束、能源替代与可持续发展——基于经济增长理论的国外研究综述[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)预印本,2010(4)：5-13.
[9]崔民选.中国能源发展报告[M].第1版.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006.
[10]D.梅多斯等,增长的极限[M].第5版.北京：商务印书馆,1984.
[11]大卫.李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].第1版.北京：光明日报出版社2009.40-42.
[12]邓玉勇,杜铭华,雷仲敏,基于能源一经济一环境(3E)系统的模型方法研究综述[J],甘肃社会科学,2006(3)：209.
[13]樊纲、苏铭、曹静.最终消费与碳减排责任的经济学分析[J].经济研究,2010(1)：4-14.
[14]方雯.我国财政政策传导机制与动态有效性的计量研究[D].吉林大学博士论文,2010.06.01.
[15]国家计委节能.能源预测模型开发与应用[M].第1版.北京：中国计划出版社,1988.
[16]国涓、项吉宁、郭崇慧.空间影响与环境库兹涅茨曲线：基于空间经济计量方法的实证分析[J].数理统计与管理,2009(7)：679-684.
[17]郭小红.中国金融发展对产业集群的影响[D].重庆大学硕士论文.2011.04.01.
[18]国务院发展研究中心课题组.全球温室气体减排：理论框架和解决方案[J].经济研究,2009(3)：4-13.
[19]韩君、梁亚民.趋势外推与ARMA组合的能源需求预测模型[J].兰州商学院学报,2005(6)：92-95.
[20]侯建朝.中国能源与经济之间关系的模型及实证分析[D].华北电力大学(北京)博士论文.2009.06.01.
[21]胡锦涛.坚定不移沿着中国特色社会主义道路前进为全面建成小康社会而奋斗——在中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会上的报告[J].党建,2012.12.01.
[22]韩玉军、 陆旸.经济增长与环境的关系——基于对C02环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2009(3)：5-11.
[23]何晓萍、刘希颖、林艳苹.中国城市化进程中的电力需求预测[J].经济研究,2009(1)：118-130.
[24]郝家龙,翟纯红.循环经济与资源城市成长路径[M].第1版.北京：新华出版社,2006.18-20.
[25]杭鸣雷.能源价格对能源强度的影响——以国内制造业为例[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(12)：93-100.
[26]韩智勇、魏一鸣、范英,中国能源强度与经济结构变化特征研究[J],数理统计与管理,2004(11),9-15.
[27]鞠美庭,张裕芬,李洪远.能源规划环境影响评价[M].第1版.北京：化学工业出版社,2006.102-107.
[28]荆全忠、苏同营.基于灰色理论的煤炭需求预测模型研究[J].山东科技大学学报(自然科学版),2004(1)：91-93.
[29]孔宪丽.中国钢铁工业供需影响因素分析及其景气指数的开发与应用研究[D].吉林大学硕士论文,2004.05.01
[30]林伯强.中国能源需求的经济计量分析[J].统计研究,2001(10)：34-39.
[31]林伯强.电力消费与中国经济增长：基于生产函数的研究[J].管理世界,2003,11：18-27.
[32]林伯强.结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测——以中国电力行业为例[J].经济研究,2003(6)：57-65.
[33]林伯强、魏巍贤、李丕东.中国长期煤炭需求：影响与政策选择[J].经济研究,2007(2)：48-58.
[34]林伯强、蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理 世界,2009(4)：27-36.
[35]林伯强、姚昕、刘希颖.节能和碳排放约束下的中国能源结构战略调整[J].中国社会科学,2010(1)：58-71.
[36]林伯强、刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放：影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8)：66-77.
[37]林伯强、孙传旺.如何在保障中国经济增长前提下完成碳减排目标[J].中国社会科学,2011(1)：64-76.
[38]鲁传一.资源与环境经济学[M].第1版.北京：清华大学出版社,2004.72-73
[39]刘豹.能源模型与系统分析[M].第1版.北京：能源出版社,1984.
[40]刘凤良,郭杰,资源可耗竭、知识积累与内生经济增长[J],中央财经大学学报,2002(11)：64-67.
[41]刘光中、颜科琦.组合神经网络模型对电力需求的预测[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(1)：14-17.
[42]刘华军、闫庆悦、孙曰瑶.国二氧化碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线——基于时间序列与面板数据的经验估计[J].中国科技论坛,2011(4)：108-113.
[43]罗汉武.能源与经济、环境协调发展的测度分析及政策研究[D].天津大学博士论文.2009.08.01
[44]刘玮、童光荣.环境视角下中国工业行业能源效率特征及影响因素[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2010(3)：33-37.
[45]刘笑萍、张永正、长青.基于EKC模型的中国实现减排目标分析与减排对策[J].管理世界,2009(4)：75-82.
[46]李勇.基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的中国经济增长与环境污染相互关系的初步评价.青岛大学硕士研究生论文,2007.
[47]李子奈、潘文卿.计量经济学[M].第2版.北京：高等教育出版社,2005.
[48]马尔萨斯.人口原理[M].第1版.西安：陕西师范大学出版社,2008.37-38.
[49]马军杰、陈震、尤建新.省域一次能源C02排放的空间计量经济分析[J].技术经济,2010(12)：62-67.
[50]马中.环境与资源经济学概论[M].第1版.北京：高等教育出版社,1999.184-185.
[51]穆勒.政治经济学原理[M].第1版.北京：华夏出版社,2009.115-117.
[52]马子红,胡宏斌,自然资源与经济增长：理论评述[J],经济论坛,2006(7)：46.
[53]倪培民.再铸因果概念[J],世界哲学,2004(1)：57-66.
[54]宁云才.煤炭需求预测的复合小波神经网络模型[J].煤炭学报,2003(1)：108-112.
[55]庞皓、陈述云.格兰杰因果性检验的有效性及其应用[J],统计研究,1999(11)：42-45.
[56]潘祺志.我国工业能耗强度变动与节能路径选择[D].东北财经大学博士论文.2010.12.01.
[57]钱易,唐孝炎.环境保护与可持续发展.北京：高等教育出版社,2003.137-138.
[58]曲格平.能源环境可持续发展研究[M].第1版.北京：中国环境科学出版社,2003.158-160.
[59](美)S.P.帕克.能源百科全书(程惠尔等译)[M].第1版.北京：科学出版社,1992.
[60]苏为华、张崇辉.关于异质性假说的中国EKC再检验[J].统计研究,2011(12)：66-71.
[61]涂正革.环境、资源与工业增长的协调性[J].经济研究,2008(2)：93-104.
[62]田立新等著,能源经济系统分析[M].第1版.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[63]王海建,资源环境约束之下的一类内生经济增长模型[J],预测,1999(4)：36-8.
[64]王海建,耗竭性资源管理与人力资本积累内生经济增长[J],管理工程学报,2000(3)：11-14.
[65]王海建.资源约束、环境污染与内生经济增长[J].复旦学报(社会科学版),2000(1)：76-80.
[66]王俊、孔令夷.非线性时间序列分析STAR模型及其在经济学中的应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究2006(1)：77-85.
[67]王立杰、孙继湖.基于灰色系统理论的煤炭需求预测模型[J].煤炭学报,2002(3)：333-336.
[68]王维国.协调发展的理论与方法研究[D].博士学位论文,1998.40-51.
[69]王小鲁、樊纲、刘鹏.中国经济增长方式转换和增长可持续性[J].经济研究,2009(1)：4-16.
[70]王雪娜.中国能源类碳源排放量估算办法[D].北京林业大学硕士论文,2006.
[71]王彦彭.能源可持续利用、环境治理与内生经济增长[J].管理世界,2011(4)：1-4.
[72]王妍、李京文.中国煤炭消费现状与未来煤炭需求预测[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2008(3)：152-155.
[73]吴敬琏.中国应当走一条什么样的工业化道路?[J].管理世界,2006(8)：1-7.
[74]吴巧生.中国工业化进程中的能源消耗强度变动及影响因素——基于费雪(Fisher)指数分解方法的实证分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2010(5)：44-50.
[75]武亚军,宣晓伟.环境税经济理论及对中国的应用分析[M].第1版.北京：经济科学出版社,2002.
[76]吴宗鑫,陈文颖,以煤为主多元化的清洁能源战略[M],北京：清华大学出版社,2001：203-229.
[77]许光月、宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究——基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济,2010(5)：37-47.
[78]邢璐、邹骥、石磊.小康社会目标下的居民生活能源需求预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010(6)：131-135.
[79]解振华.2007中国节能减排(政策篇)[M],中国发展出版社2008：322-343.
[80]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(上卷)[M].第1版.北京：商务印书馆,2002.58-80.
[81]叶汝求.环境与贸易[M].第1版.北京：中国环境科学出版社,2001.
[82]喻萧萧、王宏艳,促进山东城市化与产业结构协调发展[J],北方经济,2007(2),5-8.
[83]喻新安、龚绍东、赵西三等,河南省经济结构调整和产业优化升级新探,河南社会科学[J],2007(5),11-17.
[84]杨韚韚、裴庆冰.温室气体减排的绝对限制与强度限制分析[J],经济研究导刊,2010(32)：24-26.
[85]杨俊、邵汉华.我国工业行业增长与环境协调性评价——基于方向性距离函数实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2009(12)：45-47.
[86]杨洋、王非、李国平.能源价格、产业结构、技术进步与中国能源强度的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2008(11)：103-105.
[87](英)朱迪·丽丝.自然资源：分配、经济学与政策[M].第1版.北京：商务印书馆,2002.345-349.
[88]朱达.能源一环境的经济分析与政策研究[M].第1版.北京：中国环境科学出版社,2000：124-143.
[89]张阿玲,郑淮,适合中国国情的经济、能源、环境(3E)模型[J],清华大学学报(自然科学版),2002(12)：1616-1620.
[90]张帆,李东.环境与自然资源经济学[M].第1版.上海：上海人民出版社,2007.142.
[91]翟凡,李善同,一个中国经济的可计算一般均衡模型[J],数量经济技术经济研究,1999(3)：38-44.
[92]张宏霞.中国地方政府投资效应研究[D].东北财经大学博士论文.2010.12.01.
[93]张亮.推进能源价格改革实现节能减排的难点与对策优化设计[J].当代经济管理(优先出版),2012(11)：19-23.
[94]赵丽霞、魏巍贤,能源与经济增长模型研究,预测,1998(6),14-16.
[95]周建.经济转型期中国能源需求的长期均衡及短期波动：1978—-2005[J].南开经济 研究.2007(3)：3-17.
[96]赵进文,闵捷,2005a：《央行货币政策操作效果非对称性实证研究》,《经济研究》,第2期.
[97]赵进文,闵捷,2005b：《央行货币政策操作政策拐点与开关函数的测定》,《经济研究》第12期.
[98]赵进文,闵捷,2006：《我国经济增长波动非线性特征的实证建模研究——兼谈货币政策操作对经济增长影响的特点》,《金融学季刊》第1期.
[99]赵进文、范继涛.经济增长与能源消耗内在依从关系的实证研究[J].经济研究,2007(8)：31-42.
[100]张军、陈诗一、Gary Jefferson结构改革与中国工业增长[J],经济研究,2009(7)：4-20.
[101]张晓峒：《计量经济分析》[M],南开大学出版社,2000.
[102]张晓炯Eviews使用指南与案例[M].第1版.北京：机械工业出版社,2007.
[103]赵媛.可持续能源发展战略[M].第1版.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2001.164.
[104]张友国.经济发展方式变化对中国碳排放强度的影响[J].经济研究,2010(4)：120-132.
[105]周建、李子奈Granger因果关系检验的适用性[J],清华大学学报(自然科学版)2004(3)：358-361.
[106]周扬、吴文祥、胡莹、等.基于组合模型的能源需求预测[J].中国人口资.源与环境,2010(4)：63-68.
[107]张珍清.我国A股市场流动性溢价的实证分析[D].兰州商学院硕士论文.2010.05.30.
[108]百度文库.树立和落实科学发展观.http://wenku.baidu.com/view/7c45fd20ccbffl 21 dd3683e2.html
[109]百度文库.中国制造：即将告别“世界工厂”时代?http://wenku.baidu.com/view/83654a255901020207409ca8.html
[110]百度文库.树立和落实科学发展观.http://wenku.baidu.com/view/7c45fd20ccbffl21dd3683e2.html
[111]大众网.解决深层次矛盾和问题创造科学发展新优势.http://www.dzwww.com/2012/sdlh/bwkb/201202/t20120227_6950047.htm
[112]关于能源明天更美好.http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_43afbe730100b91a.html
[113]基于环境因素的内生经济增长研究评述. http://www.reader8.cn/data/20091101/2O4296.html
[114]经济增长作用机制http://www.xchen.com.cn/jjlw/jjzzlw/534494.html
[115]科学发展观与生态环境保护.http://www.zwbk.org/mylemmashow.aspx?lid=771
[116]环境因素经济增长http://www.xchen.com.cn/jjlw/jjzzlw/534484.html
[117]中国网.中国十五年环保路线图.http://www.china.com.cn/v/zhuanti/qhdh/2010-11/21/content_21389098.htm.
[118]Aghion, Rand Howitt, P.,1998, Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[119]Akarca, A-T-, Long, T-V-,1980, "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP: Reexamin -ation", Journal of Energy and Development,5,326-331.
[120]Ambec Stefan and Philippe Barla,2002, "ATheoretical Foundation of the Porter Hypothesis", Economics Letters,75(3),355-360.
[121]Anderies, J.M.,2003, "Economic Development, Demographics, and Renewable Resources:A Dynamical Systems Approach", Environment and Development Economics, Vol.45 (8),219-246.
[122]Ang B. W.,2004, "Decomposition Analysis for Policy Making in Energy:Which is the Preferred Method? ", Energy Policy, Vol.32,1131-1139.
[123]Barro, R.,1990, "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.98(5), Oct.,103-125.
[124]Baumol, W. J.,1988, The theory of environmental policy, Cambridge University Press.
[125]Beaumont Nicola J. and RobertTinch,2004, "Abatement Cost Curves:A Viable Management Tool for Enablingthe Achievement of Win-Win Waste Reduction Strategies?" Journal of Environmental Management,71(3),207-215.
[126]Bentzen, J. and Engsted, T.,1993, "Short-and Long-run Elasticities in Energy Demand:a Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol.15,9-16.
[127]Bentzen J.,1994, "An Empirical Analysis of Gasoline Demand in Denmark Using Cointegration Techniques", Energy Economics, Vol.16,139-143.
[128]Bovenberg, A. and Smulders, S.,1995,"Environmental Quality and Pollution-augmenting Technological Change in a Two-sector Endogenous Growth Model", Journal of Public Economics,,Vol.57(3), July,369-391.
[129]Boyd G.A. and J.D. McClelland,1999, "The Impact of Environmental Constraints on Productivity Improvement in Integrated Paper Plants", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,38(2),121-142.
[130]Boyd Gale A., George Tolley and Joseph Pang,2002, "Plant Level Productivity, Efficiency and Environmental Performance of the Container Glass Industry", Environmental and Resource Economics,23,29-43.
[131]Brown, S.B.,1983, "An Aggregate Petroleum Consumption Model", Energy Economics, Vol.5,27-30.
[132]Brown, S.P.A. and K.R. Phillips,1991, "U.S. Oil Demand and Conservation", Contemporary PolicyIssues, Vol. Ⅸ,67-72.
[133]Cerin Pontus,2006,"Bringing Economic Opportunity into Line With Environmental Influence:A discussion on the Coase Theorem and the Porter and van der Linde hypothesis", Ecological Economics,56(2),209-225.
[134]Chambers R., Y.H. Chung and R. Fare,1996, "Benefit and Distance Function", Journal of Economic Theory,70,407-419.
[135]Cheng, B.L., Lai, T.W.,1997, "An Investingation for Cointegration and Causality between Consumption and Economic Activity in Taiwan", Energy Economics, 19,435.444.
[136]Chichilnisky,Graciela and Heal, Geoffrey and Beltratti,Andrea,1995, "The Green Golden Rule",Economics Letters,Elsevier,vol.49(2),175-179.
[137]Chung, Y.H., Fare, R and S. Grosskopf,1997, "Productivity and Undesirable Outputs:A Directional Distance Function Approach", Journal of Environmental Management, Vol.51,229-240.
[138]Cole, M. A., Rayner, A. J. and Bates, J. M.,1997, "The Environmental Kuznets Curve:An Empirical Analysis", Environment and Development Economics, Vol.2, 401-416.
[139]Dasgupta, P., & Heal, G,1974, "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources", Review of Economic Studies (Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources), Vol.41, Dec.,328.
[140]Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Wang, H. and Wheeler, D.,2002, "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.16,147-168.
[141]D. I.,1993, "Energy Use and Economic Growth in the USA:a Multivariate Approach", Energy Economics,15,137-150.
[142]Dietz T., Rosa E. A.,1994, "Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population, Affluence, and Technology", Human Ecology Review, Vol.1,277-300.
[143]Ehrlich, P. R., Holdren, J. P.,1971, "Impact of Population Growth", Science, Vol.171, 1212-1217.
[144]Engle, R., and Ganger, C.,1987,"Cointergration and Error Correction: Regresentation, Estimitation, and Testing", EconimetricaVol.55, pp251-276.Engle, R.F. and Granger C.W.J,1987, "Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation, and Testing", Economtrica, Vol.55,251-276.
[145]Fare, R., Grosskopf, S. and Pasurka, Carl A.,2001, "Accounting for air pollution emissions inmeasuring statemanufacturing productivity growth". Journal of Regional Science, Vol.41(3), Aug.,381-409.
[146]Fare, R., Grosskopf, S. and Pasurka, Carl A.,2007, "Environmental Production Functions and Environmental Directional Distance Functions", Energy, Vol.32(7), July,1055-1066.
[147]Fare R., S. Grosskopf, K. Lovell and C. Pasurka,1989, "Multilateral Productivity Comparisons When Some Outputs are Undesirable:A nonparametric Approach", Review of Economics and Statistics,71,90-98.
[148]Feichtinger Gustav, Richard F. Hartl, Peter M. Kort and Vladimir M. Veliov,2005, "Environmental Policy, the Porter Hypothesis and the Composition of Capital: Effect so Learning and Technological Progress", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,50(2),434-446.
[149]Fouquet Roger,1995, "The Impact of VAT Introduction on UK Residential Energy Demand:An Investigation Using the Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol.17,237-248.
[150]Friedl, B., Getzner, M.,2003, "Determinants of CO2 Emissions in a Small Open Economy", Ecological Economics, Vol.45,133-148.
[151]Galeotti, M. and Lanza, A.,1999, "Desperately Seeking (Environmental) Kuznets", Working Paper, CRE No S 199901.
[152]Galeotti, M., Lanza, A. and Pauli, F.,2006, "Reassessing the Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emissions:A Robustness Exercise", Ecological Economics, Vol.57, 152-163.
[153]Gastaldo, S-and Ragot, L.,1996,"Sustainable Development through Endogenous Growth Models·INSEE", Unpublished.
[154]Gately, D. and P. Rappoport,1988, "The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increase of 1970s", The Energy Journal, Vol.8,93-107.
[155]Glyfason, T.,2001,"Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development", European Economic Review, Vol.45 (46),847-859.
[156]Gonzalo J.,1994,"Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-run Equilibrium Relationships", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.60,203-233.
[157]Granger C.W.J.,1969, "Investigation of Casual Relation by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Models", Econometrica, Vol.37,424-438.
[158]Granger, C.W.J., Terasvirta, T.,1993, Modeling Non-liner Economic Relationships, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
[159]Grimaud, A. and Rouge, L.,2003,"Non-renewable Resources and Growth with Vertical Innovations:Optimum, Equilibrium and Economic Policies", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Vol,45(2), March,433-453.
[160]Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B.,1991, "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement", National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 3914, NBER, Cambridge, MA.
[161]Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B.,1995, "Economic growth and the environment", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.112,353-378.
[162]Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics:Textbooks and Monographs, Vol.155. Dekker, New York, Basel and Hong Kong,507-552.
[163]Hanes Egli.,2001, "Are Cross-Country Studies of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Misleading New Evidence from Time Series Data for Germany", Discussion Paper 10/2001 of Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University of Greifswald.
[164]Hing Lin Chan and Shu Kam Lee,1997, "Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Coal in China", Energy Economics, Vol.19,271-287.
[165]Hogan W.W.,1989"A Dynamic Putty-semi-putty Model of Aggregate Energy Demand", Energy Economics, Vol.11,53-69.
[166]Holtz-Eakin, D. and Thomas M. Selden,1995, "Stoking the Fires? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth", Journal of Public Economics, vol.57,85-101.
[167]Holtz-Eakin, D., W. Newey, and H. S. Rosen,1988. Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data, Econometrica, Vol.56, N o.6,1371-1395.
[168]Hotelling, H.,1931, "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.39,137-175.
[169]Hung, V., Chang, P., and Blackburn, K.,1994, Endogenous Growth, Environment and R&D, In:Carraro, C. (Ed.) Trade, innovation and environment Kluwer Academic Press.
[170]Hwang, D.B.K., Gum, B.,1992, "The Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP:The Case of Taiwan", Journal of Energy and Development,16,219-226.
[171]IEA,2008, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Scenarios and Strategies to 2050, IEA, Paris.
[172]Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H, Shin, Y.C.2003,"Testing for unit roots in Heterogeneous panel". Journal of Econometrics, Vol.115(1), July,53-74.
[173]IPCC,2007, "Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change", Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
[174]Jaffe, A. B., S. R. Peterson, P. R. Portney, and R. N. Stavins,1995. Environmental regulation and the competitiveness of US manufacturing:what does the evidence tell us?, Journal of Economic literature 33,132-163.Jean Bosco Sabuhoro and Bruno Larue,1997, "The Market Efficiency Hypothesis:the Case of Coffee and Cocoa Futures", Agricultural Economics, Vol.16,171-184.
[175]Johansen, S.,1988, "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Cectors", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.12,231-254.
[176]Johansen S. and Juselius K.,1990, "The Full Information Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Inference on Cointegration-With Application to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.52,169-210.
[177]Johansen S. and Juselius K.,1994, "Identification of the Long-run and the Short-run Structure:an Application to the ISLM Model", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.63, 7-36.
[178]John, Asafu-Adjaye,2000, "The Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth:Time series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries", Energy Economics,22,615-625.
[179]Julian I. Silk, FrederickL. Joutz,1997, "Short and Long-run Elasticities in US Residential Electricity Demand:A Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol. 19(4), Oct.,493-513.
[180]Kathleen, M. Day. And Quentin Grafton, R.,2001, "Growth and the Environment in Canada:an Empirical Analysis", Disscussion Paper of the Australian National University.
[181]K. Fisher-Vanden, Gary H. Jefferson, Hongmei Liu, Quan Tao.,2004,"What is driving China's decline in energy intensity",Resource and Energy Economics, Vol.26 (1),March,77-97.
[182]Kraft, J., Kraft, A.,1978, "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP", Journal of Energy and Development,3,401-403.
[183]Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.D., Schmidt P. and Shin, Y.,1992, "Testing the Null of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root", Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 54,159-178.
[184]Lantz V, Feng Q.,2006, "Assessing Income, Population, and Technology Impacts on CO2 Emissions in Canada, Where's the EKC?", Ecological Economics, vol.57, 229-238.
[185]Lester C Hunt and Yasushi Ninomiya,2005,"Primary Energy Demand in Japan:An Empirical Analysis of Long-term Trends and Future CO2 Emissions", Energy Policy, Vol.33,1409-1424.
[186]Levin, A., Lin, C. F. and Chu, C.S. J.2002, "Unit Root Tests in Panel data: Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties". Journal of Econometrics, Vol.108(1), May,1-24.
[187]Ligthart, J.E. and Van Der Ploeg, F.,1994,"Tollution, the Cost Growth", Economic Letters, Volume 46(4), Dec.,339-349.
[188]L Miguel Garcia-Cerrutti,2000,"Estimating Elasticities of Residential Energy Demand from Panel County Data Using Dynamic Random Variables Models with Heteroskedastic and Correlated Error Terms", Resource and Energy Economics, Vol. 22,335-366.
[189]Love, I., and L. Zicchino,2006. Financial development and dynamic investment behavior:Evidence from panel VAR, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 46,190-210.
[190]Luenberger, D.G.,1995, Microeconomic Theory, McGraw-Hill, Boston. Kraft, J., Kraft, A.,1978, "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP", Journal ofEnergy and Development", Vol.3,401-403.
[191]Luukkonen, R., Saikkonen, P., Terasvirta, T.,1988 "Testing Linearity against Smooth Transition Autoregression, Biometrika", Vol.75(3), Feb., pp491-499.
[192]Lu Xuedu, Jiahua Pan and Ying Chen,2006, "Sustaining Economic Growth in China under Energy and Climate Security Constraints", China and World Economy,Vol.14(6),Nov.,85-97.
[193]Mar, B. and Bakken, O.,1981, "Applying Classical Control Theory to Energy-Economics Modeling—A Tool To Explain Model Behavior in Response to Varied Policy Decisions and Changing Inputs", Management Science, vol.27(1), Jan.,81-92.
[194]Martin Wagner,2008, "The Carbon Kuznets Curve:A Cloudy Picture Emitted by Bad Econometrics?", Resource and Energy Economics, Vol.30, pp.388-408.
[195]Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Bengochea-Morancho, A.,2004, "Pooled Mean Group Estimation for an Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2", Economics Letters, Vol. 82(1), Jan.,121-126.
[196]Masih, A.M.M., Masih, R.,1997, "On the Temporal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Real Income and Prices:Some New Evidence from Asian-Energy Dependent NICs Based on a Multivariate Cointegration Vector Error-correction Approach", Journal of Policy Modeling,4119,417-440.
[197]Mohtadi, H.,1996, "Environment, Growth and Optimal Policy Design", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.63(1), Dec.,119-140.
[198]Moomaw W. R and Unruh G. C.,1997, "Are Environmental Kuznets Curve Misleading US? The Case of CO2 Emissions, Special Issue on Environmental Kuznets Curves", Environmental and Development Economics, Vol.2,451-463.
[199]Mudit Kulshreshtha and Jyoti K. Parikh,2000,"Modeling Demand for Coal in India: Vector Autoregressive Models with Cointegrated Variables", Energy, Vol.25, 149-168.Pindyck R.S.,1980, The Structure of World Energy Demand. Cambridge [M], MA:MIT Press.
[200]Munasinghe. Mohan,1995, "Making Economic Growth More Sustainable", Ecological Economics, vol.15,121-124.
[201]Panayotou, T.,2000,"Economic Growth and the Environment", CID Working Paper.
[202]Panayotou, T., Sachs, J. and Peterson, A.,1999, "Developing Countries and the Control of Climate Change:A Theoretical Perspective and Policy Implications", CAERⅡ Discussion Paper, No.44.
[203]Pedroni, P.,1995. Panel cointegration:asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests, with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Indiana University Working Papers in Economics, No.95-013.
[204]Pezzey, J.C. & Withagen, C.A.,1998,"The Rise, Fall and Sustainability of Capital-Resource Economies", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol.100 (2), 513-527.
[205]Phillips, P.C.B., Perron, P.,1988, "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression", Biometrica,75,335-346.
[206]Ramanathan R.,1999,"Short-run and Long-run Elasticities of Gasoline Demand in India:An Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration", Energy Economics, Vol.21, 321-330.
[207]Ramanathan, R.,2005, "An Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Countries of the Middle East and North Africa", Energy, Vol.30(15), Nov.,2831-2842.
[208]Ramanathan, R.,2006, "A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions", Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol.73(5), June,483-494.
[209]Rasche, R.H. & Tatom, J.A.,1977, "The Effects of the New Energy Regime on Economic Capacity, Production, and Prices",Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol.59 (5),212.
[210]Rebelo, S.,1991,"Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Political Economy,Vol.99 (3),500-521.
[211]Romer, P.,1986,"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.94(5),1002-1037.
[212]Romer, P.,1990,"Endogenous Technological Change", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.98(5),71-102.
[213]Sachs, J.D. & Warner, A.M.,1997,"Fundamental Sources of Long-run Growth", American Economic Review, Vol.87 (2),184-198.
[214]Samimi, Rodney,1995"RoadTransport Energy Demand in Australia:A Cointegration Approach", Energy Economics, Vol.17,329-340.
[215]Selden, T. M. and Song, D.,1994, "Environmental Quality and Development:Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions? ", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management", vol.27(2), Sep.,147-162.
[216]Shafik, N., Bandyopadhyay, S.,1992, "Economic Growth and Environmental Quality:Time Series and Cross-country Evidence", World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.904.
[217]Sims, C.A.,1972, "Money, income, and causality", American Economic Review, September, Vol.62(4), Sep.,540-552.
[218]Soumyananda Dinda,2004, "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:A Survey ",Ecological Economics, Vol.49(4),Aug.,431-455.
[219]Stern, D.I.,2000, "A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomy", Energy Economics,22,267-283.
[220]Stiglitz, J.,1974, "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources:Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths", Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources, Vol.41, March,123-137.
[221]Stokey, N.,1998," Are There Limits to Growth?", International Economic Review, Vol.39(1),Feb.,1-31.
[222]Terasvirta, T.,1998, "Modeling economic relationships with smooth transition regressions. In:Ullah, A., Giles, D.E.A. (Eds.).Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics. Statistics:Textbooks and Monographs, Vol.155. Dekker, New York, Basel and Hong Kong,507-552.
[223]Watkins G.C.,1991, "Short-and Long-term Equilibria:Relationship between First and Third Generation Dynamic Factor Demand Models", Energy Economics, Vol. 13,2-9.
[224]Yang, H.Y.,2000, "ANote on the Causal Relationship between Energy and GNP: Further Results", Energy Economics,6,168-190.
[225]Yi,2000, "Dynamic Energy Demand Models:A Comparison", Energy Economics, Vol.22,285-297.
[226]Yoichi Kaya,1989, "Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios", Presentation to the Energy and Industry Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group, IPCC, Paris.
[227]Yu, Eden S.H. and Been-Kwei Hwang,1984. "The Relationship between Energy and GNP:Further Results " Energy Economics. Vol.6, No.3,186-190.
[228]Yu, Eden S. H. and Jang C. Jin,1992. "CointegrationTests of Energy Consumption, Income, and Employment" Resources and Energy HVol.14, No.3H,259-266.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |