我国零售业增长效率研究
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摘要
零售业对国民经济的先导作用日益突显，对国民经济的贡献逐步增大，但是自2012年起，零售业的销售增幅开始低于10%，进入低速增长期，过去靠开店扩张、规模增大获得的粗放发展将被集约发展所替代，零售业的高增长时代即将结束。零售业开始转变发展方式，关键是要从过去追求量的提高到今后重视质的改善，要实现这一转变，提高零售业效率是根本，技术效率、技术进步将助推零售业实现又好又快发展。基于此，本文综合运用现代经济理论和规范的经济学分析工具和方法，在全要素生产率（TFP）研究框架下，理论和实证相结合，深入研究了我国零售业增长的效率问题，进而提出促进零售业增长和效率提升的政策建议。
论文首先系统阐述了经济增长理论、流通经济理论、零售理论，以及随机前沿模型（SFA）和数据包络分析（DEA）两类效率与生产率测度方法，作为本研究一般性的理论基础和方法工具。然后，从零售业总量增长和结构变化两方面分析了1993—2012年我国零售业的增长现状。从总量方面看，零售业的增加值逐年递增，对GDP的贡献是稳中有升，企业数量和从业人数也稳步增加，且在吸纳社会就业方面的作用越来越重要。从结构方面看，城市零售市场的连锁率高于乡村，我国各地区连锁经营的发展存在显著的区域差异；我国的零售业态主要有超市、百货、便利店、专业店、专卖店、购物中心、仓储会员店、网上商店等多种形式，多数零售企业采取多业态经营；所有制结构方面，外资零售企业的规模增速要高于内资零售企业，利用主成分分析零售业增长力时，发现我国零售业当前的发展还主要是靠规模取胜的，而在劳动力效益、外贸与物流方面还有很大的提升空间。在客观描述零售业增长现状基础上，论文对我国零售业增长的效率进行了实证研究。
首先，采用超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型，分析我国零售业的技术效率及其影响因素，在此基础上，检验区域零售业技术效率的收敛性。研究表明，第一，我国零售业平均技术效率还处于比较低的水平，没能充分发挥已有投入和从业人员的全部潜力。第二，技术效率的区域发展不平衡问题严重，东部地区的技术效率显著高于中西部地区，并且各省份之间技术效率的差异也十分明显。第三，当地的物流发展程度、居民消费能力、外商投资情况和人力资本是影响我国零售业技术效率的重要因素。
其次，采用基于DEA的Malmquist指数方法，分析零售业上市企业的全要素生产率并利用面板回归分析了影响效率的微观因素，研究表明，第一，我国零售业上市公司全要素生产率主要来源于技术效率的变化；第二，从区域层面看，东、中、西部的零售业发展很不均衡，各区的技术效率变化情况都高于技术进步的情况，全要素生产率增长存在显著的区域差异；第三，从业态层面看，60%以上的上市企业为百货超市类，业态比较单一；第四，面板回归结果显示零售业上市公司的效率与无形资产率、股权集中度、存货周转率呈现显著正相关，与资产负债率呈现显著的负相关。
然后，采用基于数据包络分析（DEA）的Malmquist指数方法详细比较了内外资零售业的效率，并深刻剖析中外零售业效率差别的原因。研究表明，外资零售业TFP增长幅度较大，外资零售业技术进步明显高于内资零售业，成为推动零售业效率提高的主要因素。剖析内外资零售业效率差异的原因主要以美国的零售业为参照，首先，美国的人均消费能力远远高于我国，直接影响了零售业的产出高低，在零售业投入一定的前提下，进而影响到零售业效率的高低；第二，美国的零售业处于产业发展的成熟期，这一时期零售企业各方面经营状况稳定，多业态并存繁荣发展，具有较高的盈利能力和增长效率；而我国的零售业处于产业发展的成长期，各业态之间竞争激烈、经营分散无序、业内缺乏有实力的领袖企业，整体零售业的盈利能力和增长效率都较低；第三，我国零售业的信息化水平远落后于发达国家；第四，我国零售企业总体规模普遍偏小，规模效率低下；其次，我国零售业的连锁化程度低，制约了零售企业的规模化、组织化发展；第六，我国大型超市之间经营的商品品种相似；最后，我国零售业从业人员的学历层次普遍较低。
最后，选取线上和线下各一家有代表性的零售企业，1号店和永辉超市，对比其效率，并得出三点发展建议供其他企业借鉴，一是培养差异化的竞争优势；二是高效的供应链管理；三是线上线下的融合发展。
本文的研究表明，尽管我国零售业已经具有技术效率和技术进步双重驱动的增长特征，但是两者的增长都偏低，导致零售业全要素生产率增长缓慢。在今后发展过程中，我国零售业不仅要在体制机制上进行创新，提高对现有资源和技术的利用潜力，促进技术效率的改善；而且要加强技术创新和技术进步，实现零售技术的持续升级。通过效率的改善和技术的提高，促进全要素生产率更快增长。
鉴于此，本文提出相应的政策建议：第一，提高零售业信息化水平；第二，加强人力资本投资，提高从业人员素质；第三，提高零售企业的组织化水平，促进零售业的规模化发展，提升企业品牌价值；第四，合理规划零售业的营业网点，减少恶性竞争，促进区域协同发展；第五，构建现代物流体系，促进物流业的发展壮大。
The leading role of retail industry on the national economy is gradually growing, andthe contribution to the national economy is gradually increasing, but since2012, salesgrowth of retail industry have begun to less than10%, and entered a period of slow growth,the extensive development through shop expansion and the increase of the scale in the pastwill be replaced by the intensive development, high growth era of the retail industry iscoming to an end. The retail industry has begun to transform the mode of development, thekey is to from the pursuit of quantity in the past to the importance of quality improvementin the future, to achieve this change, improvement of the efficiency of retail industry is thefundamental, technical efficiency, technological progress will be to achieve sound andrapid development and boost retail. Therefore, under the total factor productivity (TFP)framework, Therefore, this paper employs modern economic theories and analysis toolsand methods to theoretically and empirically study on the growth efficiency of China’sretail industry, and then puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the growth andefficiency of the industry.
The paper firstly introduces the theory of economic growth, circulation economy andretail industry, and the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) and Data EnvelopmentAnalysis (DEA), so as to provide a general theoretical foundation and methodological toolsfor the research. Then, the growth status of China’s retail industry during1993-2012isanalyzed from two aspects of total amount and structure. From the perspective of totalamount, the retail industry has maintained a relatively high growth rate, The retail industryaccounted for the proportion of GDP and remains stable and absorbs employment in anincreasingly important role. From the perspective of structure, the rate of chain in the cityretail market is higher than that in the rural, regional differences of chain developmentexist in China; retail formats in China mainly contain such as supermarkets, departmentstores, convenience stores, specialty stores, specialty stores, shopping malls, warehouseclub stores, online stores and other forms, the majority of enterprises adopt multi formatretail business; from the perspective of ownership structure, the scale growth of foreignretail enterprises is higher than domestic retail enterprises. Analysis of retail growth byprincipal component analysis shows that the development of China's retail industry atpresent also relys mainly on scale, but the labor efficiency, trade and logistics are still weak.Then, the paper empirically studies on the growth efficiency of China’s retail industry.
First of all, the paper uses stochastic frontier approach of translog production functionto empirically analyze the technical efficiency changes of China’s retail industry, and discusses its influencing factors, then tests the convergence of the technical efficiency. Theresult shows that, first, the technical efficiency of China’s retail industry is low, and it isstill far from being using the available resources and technologies, Second, there aresignificant regional disparities in technical efficiency. The East has the highest growth rate,followed by the middle, while the west is negative growth. In addition, provincialdifference in TE is also obvious.Third,The local logistics development level, residentsconsumption ability, foreign investment and human capital are important factors toinfluence the technical efficiency of China's retail industry.
And then, the paper applies DEA-based Malmquist index to estimate the total factorproductivity growth of China’s retail listed corporations, and uses panel regression toanalize the factors that influence the efficiency,the results show that, first, tfp changes inChina's retail industry listed corporation come mainly from the technical efficiency; second,from the perspective of regional, the development of retail industry is unbalanced, thechange of the technical efficiency in various districts is higher than that of the technologyprogress, total factor productivity growth has significant regional differences; third, fromthe perspective of retail formats, more than60%listed companies are department stores,supermarkets; fourth, panel regression results show the efficiency of the retail listingcorporation has a significant positive correlation with intangible assets ratio, ownershipconcentration, stock turnover rate, and shows a significant negative correlation with assetliability ratio.
Then, the paper compares the productivity of domestic and foreign retail industrybased on DEA-Malmquist productivity index, and deeply analyzes the reasons of domesticand foreign retail efficiency difference. Research shows that, the TFP of foreign retailindustry grows larger, technical progress of foreign retail industry is significantly higherthan that of domestic retail industry, and becomes the main factor to promote the retailindustry. The paper analizes the causes of low efficiency of domestic retail are as follows,first, American per capita consumption capacity is much higher than that in China, whichhas a direct impact on retail output level, this condition affects the retail efficiency; second,American retail industry is in the mature period of industrial development, retailenterprises operate steadily, with higher profitability and growth efficiency; and China'sretail industry is in the growth period of industrial development, retail enterprises operatein disorder,compete fiercely between the format, and lack leadership strength enterprise, sothat the overall profitability and growth efficiency of retail industry is low; Third, theinformatization level of China's retail industry is far behind the developed countries; fourth, the overall scale of retail enterprises in our country is generally small, with low efficiency;fifth, the degree of the chain retail business in our country is low, restricting the scale、organized retail enterprise development; sixth, large supermarkets of our countrycommodity has similar species; finally, record of formal schooling of China's retailindustry practitioners is generally low.
At last, the online and offline retail enterprises are selected,1shop and Yonghuisupermarket, compares the efficiency of them,and obtains three suggestions for thedevelopment of reference for other enterprises, first is to develop differentiated competitiveadvantage; second is the efficient supply chain management; third is o2o development.
The paper shows that, although China’s retail industry has technical efficiency andtechnical progress driven characteristics, but the growth of both are slow, so resulting in alow growth rate of total factor productivity. The retail industry should not only makeinnovations in the systems and mechanisms to promote higher technical efficiency; butalso strengthen technical innovation and technical progress to achieve continuousupgrading of retail technology.
To achieve this, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward:first,improve the retail industry informatization level; second, strengthen the human capitalinvestment, improve the quality of employees; third, improve the organization level ofretail enterprises; fourth, rational planning of retail outlets, reduce the malignantcompetition; fifth, the construction of modern logistics system, to promote thedevelopment of logistics industry growth.
论文首先系统阐述了经济增长理论、流通经济理论、零售理论，以及随机前沿模型（SFA）和数据包络分析（DEA）两类效率与生产率测度方法，作为本研究一般性的理论基础和方法工具。然后，从零售业总量增长和结构变化两方面分析了1993—2012年我国零售业的增长现状。从总量方面看，零售业的增加值逐年递增，对GDP的贡献是稳中有升，企业数量和从业人数也稳步增加，且在吸纳社会就业方面的作用越来越重要。从结构方面看，城市零售市场的连锁率高于乡村，我国各地区连锁经营的发展存在显著的区域差异；我国的零售业态主要有超市、百货、便利店、专业店、专卖店、购物中心、仓储会员店、网上商店等多种形式，多数零售企业采取多业态经营；所有制结构方面，外资零售企业的规模增速要高于内资零售企业，利用主成分分析零售业增长力时，发现我国零售业当前的发展还主要是靠规模取胜的，而在劳动力效益、外贸与物流方面还有很大的提升空间。在客观描述零售业增长现状基础上，论文对我国零售业增长的效率进行了实证研究。
首先，采用超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型，分析我国零售业的技术效率及其影响因素，在此基础上，检验区域零售业技术效率的收敛性。研究表明，第一，我国零售业平均技术效率还处于比较低的水平，没能充分发挥已有投入和从业人员的全部潜力。第二，技术效率的区域发展不平衡问题严重，东部地区的技术效率显著高于中西部地区，并且各省份之间技术效率的差异也十分明显。第三，当地的物流发展程度、居民消费能力、外商投资情况和人力资本是影响我国零售业技术效率的重要因素。
其次，采用基于DEA的Malmquist指数方法，分析零售业上市企业的全要素生产率并利用面板回归分析了影响效率的微观因素，研究表明，第一，我国零售业上市公司全要素生产率主要来源于技术效率的变化；第二，从区域层面看，东、中、西部的零售业发展很不均衡，各区的技术效率变化情况都高于技术进步的情况，全要素生产率增长存在显著的区域差异；第三，从业态层面看，60%以上的上市企业为百货超市类，业态比较单一；第四，面板回归结果显示零售业上市公司的效率与无形资产率、股权集中度、存货周转率呈现显著正相关，与资产负债率呈现显著的负相关。
然后，采用基于数据包络分析（DEA）的Malmquist指数方法详细比较了内外资零售业的效率，并深刻剖析中外零售业效率差别的原因。研究表明，外资零售业TFP增长幅度较大，外资零售业技术进步明显高于内资零售业，成为推动零售业效率提高的主要因素。剖析内外资零售业效率差异的原因主要以美国的零售业为参照，首先，美国的人均消费能力远远高于我国，直接影响了零售业的产出高低，在零售业投入一定的前提下，进而影响到零售业效率的高低；第二，美国的零售业处于产业发展的成熟期，这一时期零售企业各方面经营状况稳定，多业态并存繁荣发展，具有较高的盈利能力和增长效率；而我国的零售业处于产业发展的成长期，各业态之间竞争激烈、经营分散无序、业内缺乏有实力的领袖企业，整体零售业的盈利能力和增长效率都较低；第三，我国零售业的信息化水平远落后于发达国家；第四，我国零售企业总体规模普遍偏小，规模效率低下；其次，我国零售业的连锁化程度低，制约了零售企业的规模化、组织化发展；第六，我国大型超市之间经营的商品品种相似；最后，我国零售业从业人员的学历层次普遍较低。
最后，选取线上和线下各一家有代表性的零售企业，1号店和永辉超市，对比其效率，并得出三点发展建议供其他企业借鉴，一是培养差异化的竞争优势；二是高效的供应链管理；三是线上线下的融合发展。
本文的研究表明，尽管我国零售业已经具有技术效率和技术进步双重驱动的增长特征，但是两者的增长都偏低，导致零售业全要素生产率增长缓慢。在今后发展过程中，我国零售业不仅要在体制机制上进行创新，提高对现有资源和技术的利用潜力，促进技术效率的改善；而且要加强技术创新和技术进步，实现零售技术的持续升级。通过效率的改善和技术的提高，促进全要素生产率更快增长。
鉴于此，本文提出相应的政策建议：第一，提高零售业信息化水平；第二，加强人力资本投资，提高从业人员素质；第三，提高零售企业的组织化水平，促进零售业的规模化发展，提升企业品牌价值；第四，合理规划零售业的营业网点，减少恶性竞争，促进区域协同发展；第五，构建现代物流体系，促进物流业的发展壮大。
The leading role of retail industry on the national economy is gradually growing, andthe contribution to the national economy is gradually increasing, but since2012, salesgrowth of retail industry have begun to less than10%, and entered a period of slow growth,the extensive development through shop expansion and the increase of the scale in the pastwill be replaced by the intensive development, high growth era of the retail industry iscoming to an end. The retail industry has begun to transform the mode of development, thekey is to from the pursuit of quantity in the past to the importance of quality improvementin the future, to achieve this change, improvement of the efficiency of retail industry is thefundamental, technical efficiency, technological progress will be to achieve sound andrapid development and boost retail. Therefore, under the total factor productivity (TFP)framework, Therefore, this paper employs modern economic theories and analysis toolsand methods to theoretically and empirically study on the growth efficiency of China’sretail industry, and then puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the growth andefficiency of the industry.
The paper firstly introduces the theory of economic growth, circulation economy andretail industry, and the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) and Data EnvelopmentAnalysis (DEA), so as to provide a general theoretical foundation and methodological toolsfor the research. Then, the growth status of China’s retail industry during1993-2012isanalyzed from two aspects of total amount and structure. From the perspective of totalamount, the retail industry has maintained a relatively high growth rate, The retail industryaccounted for the proportion of GDP and remains stable and absorbs employment in anincreasingly important role. From the perspective of structure, the rate of chain in the cityretail market is higher than that in the rural, regional differences of chain developmentexist in China; retail formats in China mainly contain such as supermarkets, departmentstores, convenience stores, specialty stores, specialty stores, shopping malls, warehouseclub stores, online stores and other forms, the majority of enterprises adopt multi formatretail business; from the perspective of ownership structure, the scale growth of foreignretail enterprises is higher than domestic retail enterprises. Analysis of retail growth byprincipal component analysis shows that the development of China's retail industry atpresent also relys mainly on scale, but the labor efficiency, trade and logistics are still weak.Then, the paper empirically studies on the growth efficiency of China’s retail industry.
First of all, the paper uses stochastic frontier approach of translog production functionto empirically analyze the technical efficiency changes of China’s retail industry, and discusses its influencing factors, then tests the convergence of the technical efficiency. Theresult shows that, first, the technical efficiency of China’s retail industry is low, and it isstill far from being using the available resources and technologies, Second, there aresignificant regional disparities in technical efficiency. The East has the highest growth rate,followed by the middle, while the west is negative growth. In addition, provincialdifference in TE is also obvious.Third,The local logistics development level, residentsconsumption ability, foreign investment and human capital are important factors toinfluence the technical efficiency of China's retail industry.
And then, the paper applies DEA-based Malmquist index to estimate the total factorproductivity growth of China’s retail listed corporations, and uses panel regression toanalize the factors that influence the efficiency,the results show that, first, tfp changes inChina's retail industry listed corporation come mainly from the technical efficiency; second,from the perspective of regional, the development of retail industry is unbalanced, thechange of the technical efficiency in various districts is higher than that of the technologyprogress, total factor productivity growth has significant regional differences; third, fromthe perspective of retail formats, more than60%listed companies are department stores,supermarkets; fourth, panel regression results show the efficiency of the retail listingcorporation has a significant positive correlation with intangible assets ratio, ownershipconcentration, stock turnover rate, and shows a significant negative correlation with assetliability ratio.
Then, the paper compares the productivity of domestic and foreign retail industrybased on DEA-Malmquist productivity index, and deeply analyzes the reasons of domesticand foreign retail efficiency difference. Research shows that, the TFP of foreign retailindustry grows larger, technical progress of foreign retail industry is significantly higherthan that of domestic retail industry, and becomes the main factor to promote the retailindustry. The paper analizes the causes of low efficiency of domestic retail are as follows,first, American per capita consumption capacity is much higher than that in China, whichhas a direct impact on retail output level, this condition affects the retail efficiency; second,American retail industry is in the mature period of industrial development, retailenterprises operate steadily, with higher profitability and growth efficiency; and China'sretail industry is in the growth period of industrial development, retail enterprises operatein disorder,compete fiercely between the format, and lack leadership strength enterprise, sothat the overall profitability and growth efficiency of retail industry is low; Third, theinformatization level of China's retail industry is far behind the developed countries; fourth, the overall scale of retail enterprises in our country is generally small, with low efficiency;fifth, the degree of the chain retail business in our country is low, restricting the scale、organized retail enterprise development; sixth, large supermarkets of our countrycommodity has similar species; finally, record of formal schooling of China's retailindustry practitioners is generally low.
At last, the online and offline retail enterprises are selected,1shop and Yonghuisupermarket, compares the efficiency of them,and obtains three suggestions for thedevelopment of reference for other enterprises, first is to develop differentiated competitiveadvantage; second is the efficient supply chain management; third is o2o development.
The paper shows that, although China’s retail industry has technical efficiency andtechnical progress driven characteristics, but the growth of both are slow, so resulting in alow growth rate of total factor productivity. The retail industry should not only makeinnovations in the systems and mechanisms to promote higher technical efficiency; butalso strengthen technical innovation and technical progress to achieve continuousupgrading of retail technology.
To achieve this, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward:first,improve the retail industry informatization level; second, strengthen the human capitalinvestment, improve the quality of employees; third, improve the organization level ofretail enterprises; fourth, rational planning of retail outlets, reduce the malignantcompetition; fifth, the construction of modern logistics system, to promote thedevelopment of logistics industry growth.
引文
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