粮食主产区农户技术采用及其效应研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国农业农村发展取得举世瞩目的成就,尤其是新世纪以来的粮食生产,已经连续十年实现增产。然而,工业化、城镇化的快速发展、人口增加与人民生活水平提高,粮食消费需求将呈刚性增长,而资源与环境约束对粮食生产的影响日益突出,传统的农业生产方式难以为继,只有依靠农业科技进步,强化农业技术推广应用才能加快转变农业发展方式,实现农业可持续发展。为此,2014年中央“一号文件”提出了建立农业可持续发展长效机制,促进生态友好型农业发展的总体战略,为未来中国农业指明了发展方向。
中国农业技术创新成果转化不足、农技推广能力落后于农户需要使得农户技术采用与扩散存在着有效供给与有效需求严重脱节。。农户作为农业生产的微观主体,是农业科技传播的主要对象,也是农业技术的应用者,科技成果只有被农民接受和消化并且应用于农业生产过程,才能转化为现实的生产力。因此,研究粮食主产区农户技术采用对于政府以合理地引导、调整和规范农户行为,促使农户生产方式向可持续发展转变,进而实现中国农业可持续发展有重要的理论与现实意义。
本文基于农户行为理论、技术扩散理论相关理论,以粮食主产区的安徽省水稻种植农户采用可持续生产技术为研究对象,通过实地调研获取农户数据,综合运用联立probit模型、结构方程模型、倾向得分匹配方法等多种实证方法,在分析农户技术采用经济机理的基础上,构建基于过程的“从采用行为到持久采用意向”的农户技术采用研究框架,深入探讨农户可持续生产技术采用及其影响因素,并对农户可持续生产技术的持久采用意向进行理论与实证分析,进而考量多种可持续生产技术的采用效应,最后提出政策建议。主要研究结论概括如下：
(1)通过对比分析个体采纳过程模型,提出基于过程的“从采用行为到持久采用意向”的农户技术采用研究框架,采用农业技术首先需要农户做出是否采用此类技术的决策,采用后进入农户技术持久采用阶段,这一阶段为农户技术实际采用过程中是否相对满意,进而愿意持续采用。
(2)农户可持续生产技术采用行为的实证分析发现：水稻种植农户采用五种可持续生产技术决策相互依赖,存在互补关系,秸秆还田技术与测土配方施肥技术、免耕栽培技术存在互补效应；病虫害综合防治与测土配方施肥技术存在互补效应。影响农户采用不同可持续生产技术的因素具有异质性,主要受到村干部、文化程度、户主年龄、务农劳动力数量、种植规模、农技人员指导、政府推广、参加培训、与市场距离、农户环境影响认知等因素的影响。
(3)农户可持续生产技术的持久采用意向分析发现：技术感知有用性与采用满意度对技术持续采用意向有显著正向影响。农户技术采用评价中相对优势、所需劳动量、简易程度三个维度通过对技术感知有用性与采用满意度的显著正向影响,从而对技术持续采用意向产生正向作用。稳定性与相容性两个维度通过对技术采用满意度的显著正向影响,从而对技术持续采用意向产生正向作用。技术稳定性与相容性对感知有用性的正向作用没有通过显著性检验。
(4)采用可持续生产技术对农户技术效率有显著影响,其影响的平均处理效应均值为0.057。
Since reform and opening up, China's agricultural and rural development has made remarkable achievements, especially in the new century, food production has been achieving yield for ten consecutive years. However, the rapid development of industrialization, urbanization, population growth and the improvement of people's living standards, food growth in consumer demand will show a rigid. Simultaneously, resource and environmental constraints to food production have become increasingly prominent, traditional agricultural production unsustainable. Only by relying on agricultural science and technology, strengthening agricultural technology popularization and application, agricultural development accelerate the transformation to achieve sustainable agricultural development. Therefore, in2014,"first document" proposed the establishment of a long-term sustainable development mechanism of agricultural and promoting eco-friendly agricultural development. This overall strategy delivers the development direction of Chinese agriculture in the future.
At present, insufficient transformation of China's agricultural technological innovation achievements, popularization capacity lags behind the farmers'need to make farmers technology adoption and diffusion exists a serious gap of effective supply and effective demand. As Micro-main body of agricultural production, Farmers is the main target pf the spread of agricultural science and technology, and application of agricultural technology. Only farmers receive, digest and use agricultural science and technology, scientific and technological achievements can be transformed into real productive forces. Therefore, study on grain farmers' use of technology in Major Grain Producing Areas has important theoretical and practical significance for the government to reasonably guide, adjust and standardize the farmers' behavior, prompt farmers to shift production to sustainable development, so as to realize the sustainable development of agriculture in China.
Based on farmers acts theory, and technology proliferation theory related theory, this paper integrate multivariate probit model, and structure equation model, and propensity score matching method, analysis farmers technology economic mechanism, build farmers technology adoption research framework of "from used acts to lasting used intent", through farmers planting rice in Anhui Province with sustainable production technology for the study object and field research gets farmers data. Then this paper study farmers using sustainable production techniques and its influencing factors, peasant household durable adoption intentions of sustainable production technology in Theoretical and empirical analysis, and consider the variety of adoption effects of sustainable production technology. Final policy recommendations are proposed. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
(1) Through a comparative analysis of personal acceptance process model, this paper propose farmers technology adoption research framework of "from used acts to lasting used intent". Adoption of agricultural technologies first requires farmers to make the decision of whether to adopt such technology. Into the farmers' sustained stage of technology adoption, The actual process of technology adoption farmers are satisfied, Farmers are willing to continue using technologies.
(2) The empirical analysis of farmers adopting sustainable production technology find that planting farmers adopting five kinds of sustainable rice production technology decisions are interdependent, that there is a complementary relationship. Straw technique, soil testing techniques and no-tillage cultivation techniques is a complementary. Integrated pest management techniques and soil testing techniques is a complementary. Factors that affect farmers use of different sustainable production technologies are heterogeneity. These factors mainly have village officials, educational level, age, size of farm labor force, growing, agricultural technical personnel guidance, government outreach, training, distance from market, and, farmers' environmental impact.
(3) Analysis of farmers sustained intentions of sustainable production technologies find that technical perceived usefulness and satisfaction have a significant positive effect. Comparative advantage of new technology, degree of labor, easy level have a significant positive effect by technical perceived usefulness and satisfaction, thus producing a positive effect for farmers sustained intentions. Technical stability and compatibility have a significant positive effect through the satisfaction, thus producing a positive effect for farmers sustained intentions. Technical stability and compatibility does not pass the test of significance for the positive role of technical perceived usefulness.
(4) Adopting sustainable production technologies have a significant effect of farmers technical efficiency. The average treatment effect that influences is value of0.057.
中国农业技术创新成果转化不足、农技推广能力落后于农户需要使得农户技术采用与扩散存在着有效供给与有效需求严重脱节。。农户作为农业生产的微观主体,是农业科技传播的主要对象,也是农业技术的应用者,科技成果只有被农民接受和消化并且应用于农业生产过程,才能转化为现实的生产力。因此,研究粮食主产区农户技术采用对于政府以合理地引导、调整和规范农户行为,促使农户生产方式向可持续发展转变,进而实现中国农业可持续发展有重要的理论与现实意义。
本文基于农户行为理论、技术扩散理论相关理论,以粮食主产区的安徽省水稻种植农户采用可持续生产技术为研究对象,通过实地调研获取农户数据,综合运用联立probit模型、结构方程模型、倾向得分匹配方法等多种实证方法,在分析农户技术采用经济机理的基础上,构建基于过程的“从采用行为到持久采用意向”的农户技术采用研究框架,深入探讨农户可持续生产技术采用及其影响因素,并对农户可持续生产技术的持久采用意向进行理论与实证分析,进而考量多种可持续生产技术的采用效应,最后提出政策建议。主要研究结论概括如下：
(1)通过对比分析个体采纳过程模型,提出基于过程的“从采用行为到持久采用意向”的农户技术采用研究框架,采用农业技术首先需要农户做出是否采用此类技术的决策,采用后进入农户技术持久采用阶段,这一阶段为农户技术实际采用过程中是否相对满意,进而愿意持续采用。
(2)农户可持续生产技术采用行为的实证分析发现：水稻种植农户采用五种可持续生产技术决策相互依赖,存在互补关系,秸秆还田技术与测土配方施肥技术、免耕栽培技术存在互补效应；病虫害综合防治与测土配方施肥技术存在互补效应。影响农户采用不同可持续生产技术的因素具有异质性,主要受到村干部、文化程度、户主年龄、务农劳动力数量、种植规模、农技人员指导、政府推广、参加培训、与市场距离、农户环境影响认知等因素的影响。
(3)农户可持续生产技术的持久采用意向分析发现：技术感知有用性与采用满意度对技术持续采用意向有显著正向影响。农户技术采用评价中相对优势、所需劳动量、简易程度三个维度通过对技术感知有用性与采用满意度的显著正向影响,从而对技术持续采用意向产生正向作用。稳定性与相容性两个维度通过对技术采用满意度的显著正向影响,从而对技术持续采用意向产生正向作用。技术稳定性与相容性对感知有用性的正向作用没有通过显著性检验。
(4)采用可持续生产技术对农户技术效率有显著影响,其影响的平均处理效应均值为0.057。
Since reform and opening up, China's agricultural and rural development has made remarkable achievements, especially in the new century, food production has been achieving yield for ten consecutive years. However, the rapid development of industrialization, urbanization, population growth and the improvement of people's living standards, food growth in consumer demand will show a rigid. Simultaneously, resource and environmental constraints to food production have become increasingly prominent, traditional agricultural production unsustainable. Only by relying on agricultural science and technology, strengthening agricultural technology popularization and application, agricultural development accelerate the transformation to achieve sustainable agricultural development. Therefore, in2014,"first document" proposed the establishment of a long-term sustainable development mechanism of agricultural and promoting eco-friendly agricultural development. This overall strategy delivers the development direction of Chinese agriculture in the future.
At present, insufficient transformation of China's agricultural technological innovation achievements, popularization capacity lags behind the farmers'need to make farmers technology adoption and diffusion exists a serious gap of effective supply and effective demand. As Micro-main body of agricultural production, Farmers is the main target pf the spread of agricultural science and technology, and application of agricultural technology. Only farmers receive, digest and use agricultural science and technology, scientific and technological achievements can be transformed into real productive forces. Therefore, study on grain farmers' use of technology in Major Grain Producing Areas has important theoretical and practical significance for the government to reasonably guide, adjust and standardize the farmers' behavior, prompt farmers to shift production to sustainable development, so as to realize the sustainable development of agriculture in China.
Based on farmers acts theory, and technology proliferation theory related theory, this paper integrate multivariate probit model, and structure equation model, and propensity score matching method, analysis farmers technology economic mechanism, build farmers technology adoption research framework of "from used acts to lasting used intent", through farmers planting rice in Anhui Province with sustainable production technology for the study object and field research gets farmers data. Then this paper study farmers using sustainable production techniques and its influencing factors, peasant household durable adoption intentions of sustainable production technology in Theoretical and empirical analysis, and consider the variety of adoption effects of sustainable production technology. Final policy recommendations are proposed. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
(1) Through a comparative analysis of personal acceptance process model, this paper propose farmers technology adoption research framework of "from used acts to lasting used intent". Adoption of agricultural technologies first requires farmers to make the decision of whether to adopt such technology. Into the farmers' sustained stage of technology adoption, The actual process of technology adoption farmers are satisfied, Farmers are willing to continue using technologies.
(2) The empirical analysis of farmers adopting sustainable production technology find that planting farmers adopting five kinds of sustainable rice production technology decisions are interdependent, that there is a complementary relationship. Straw technique, soil testing techniques and no-tillage cultivation techniques is a complementary. Integrated pest management techniques and soil testing techniques is a complementary. Factors that affect farmers use of different sustainable production technologies are heterogeneity. These factors mainly have village officials, educational level, age, size of farm labor force, growing, agricultural technical personnel guidance, government outreach, training, distance from market, and, farmers' environmental impact.
(3) Analysis of farmers sustained intentions of sustainable production technologies find that technical perceived usefulness and satisfaction have a significant positive effect. Comparative advantage of new technology, degree of labor, easy level have a significant positive effect by technical perceived usefulness and satisfaction, thus producing a positive effect for farmers sustained intentions. Technical stability and compatibility have a significant positive effect through the satisfaction, thus producing a positive effect for farmers sustained intentions. Technical stability and compatibility does not pass the test of significance for the positive role of technical perceived usefulness.
(4) Adopting sustainable production technologies have a significant effect of farmers technical efficiency. The average treatment effect that influences is value of0.057.
引文
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