美国量化宽松货币政策的传导机制研究
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摘要
2008年,美国的次贷危机迅速演变成了一场金融危机,并迅速向全球蔓延。为了应对金融危机对美国经济产生的严重冲击,美联储迅速将基准利率调到零利率的水平,并且推出了量化宽松货币政策这一非常规的货币政策。
量化宽松货币政策起源于大萧条后宽松货币政策操作,危机后的快速复苏进程表明量化宽松的有效性,货币主义的观点也表明了量化宽松的可行性。英国南安普顿大学的Werner(1991)首次提出量化宽松货币政策的概念,其既不是降息,也不同于简单的“印钞票”,而是通过量化规模来实现“信用创造”。量化宽松的货币政策最早使用于日本2001年发生的经济衰退时期,由于经济处于流动性陷阱状况,整个经济的投资意愿和需求都很低,而传统的货币政策的作用极其有限,于是非传统的量化宽松货币政策应运而生。日本在2000-2006年间实行了零利率货币政策以及量化宽松货币政策,这对量化宽松货币政策的理论体系进行了深化。货币非中性理论、克鲁格曼的“流动性陷阱”理论、资产负债表衰退、金融加速器理论、明斯基的金融不稳定理论等都是量化宽松货币政策的理论基础。在量化宽松货币政策的国内传导机制的理论研究中,本文在对Smets和Wouters(2007)提出的SW模型和Gilchrist et al.(2009)将“融资溢价”引入SW模型后的GOZ模型的基础上,提出了进一步的修正,加入美联储的超额存款准备金的信号效应、投资组合再平衡效应和融资溢价对企业净值的弹性系数,以此来考察QE的效果的显著性。在量化宽松货币政策的国际传导机制的理论研究中,本文通过各经济体的资本流动的的方程组,得出任何一个国家的货币供应量的变化,都会导致一个新的资本的净流出的均衡。在此基础上,本文得出结论：一个国家国内货币总量受M2和资本净流入两方面作用的影响。继而通过引入虚拟经济的费雪方程式(刘骏民,2001)分别得出对物价水平和资产价格水平的影响。
在量化宽松货币政策的国内传导机制中,本文分析了量化宽松的金融市场稳定和经济刺激效应的目标和传导机制。金融危机背景下,美联储实施的量化宽松货币政策偏向于通过资产负债表渠道维护金融市场稳定的政策目标。在经济刺激效应方面,量化宽松可以通过稳定金融市场打通货币政策传导渠道扩张货币,进而通过信贷扩张、通货膨胀、本币贬值等效应刺激总需求提升。本文对美联储量化宽松货币政策对货币供给增加、总需求增加以及汇率变化影响的实证检验,证明了货币供应量的扩张对经济的影响主要通过对物价、资本市场和房地产市场的提升而刺激总需求来实现的。全球金融危机的根源在于经济的虚拟化,本文从虚拟经济的角度对美量化宽松货币政策的经济刺激效果进行了评价,分别从虚拟经济和实体经济的互动关系以及虚拟经济与资本垄断的关系进行了分析,指出了金融危机的制度原因和量化宽松货币政策的局限性。
作为世界上最强大的经济体和国际储备货币美元发行国的美国,其量化宽松货币政策的调控目标并不仅仅只有国内目标,还包括全球目标,即为美国资本在全球进行最优配置提供资金支持。本文对美联储的目标及其影响进行了分析。本文通过建立量化宽松下的全球经济博弈模型,分析了美国经济体、欧日等发达国家经济体和发展中国家经济体在货币政策选择的博弈以及在货币政策和财政政策的组合选择的博弈,揭示了美国的政策对其它国家在政策选择的影响。本文对美联储的货币政策的溢出效应进行了实证分析,一是分析了货币供给的增加对金砖五国资本价格的冲击效果显著,这催生了发展中国家的资产泡沫,给资本市场带来了不稳定性。二是分析了货币供给的增加对金砖五国物价的冲击效果显著,这给发展中国家的经济发展带来了不确定性,并且影响了这些国家的货币政策的独立性。
在全球主要发达经济体竞相实行量化宽松货币政策的背景下,本文对美国、日本、英国和欧元区等全球主要发达经济体量化宽松过程进行全面的梳理并对其背景、操作特点和效果进行了对比分析,并在此基础上对发达经济体竞相量化宽松对全球经济的影响进行了全面的分析。
在以美国为首的全球主要经济体竞相实行量化宽松货币政策的形势下,中国经济受到很大的影响。中国应该从各个方面进行应对,这些应对措施包括维护国家经济安全和稳定增长、推动国际货币制度改革、大力推进人民币的国际化、加速优化产业结构、转变经济增长方式以及实行保护主义建立以赶超战略为目标的自主发展模式。
In2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis quickly turned into a financial crisis, and spreaded rapidly around the world. In response to the severe impact of the financial crisis on the U.S. economy, the Fed quickly transferred to the benchmark interest rate level of zero interest rates, and the introduction of this unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing monetary policy.
Quantitative easing monetary policy originated the loose monetary policy operations in the Great Depression. The rapid post-crisis recovery process and the monetarist view that the effectiveness and feasibility of the quantitative easing monetary policy. Werner (1991) of The University of Southampton in the United Kingdom first proposed the concept of quantitative easing monetary policy. It is not cutting interest rates, nor "printing money", but to achieve the "credit creation" by quantifying the scale. Quantitative easing monetary policy was first used in Japan in2001during the recession, when the economy was in a liquidity trap and the willingness to invest and the demand were very low, and the traditional role of monetary policy was extremely limited, so non-traditional quantitative easing monetary policy came into being. It enriched and deepened the theoretical system of quantitative easing monetary policy. Non-neutral monetary theory, Krugman's "liquidity trap" theory, the financial accelerator theory, Minsky's financial instability theory are the theoretical basis of quantitative easing monetary policy. The base model which this thesis draws upon is the model developed by Gilchrist et al (2009) who augmented the Smets and Wouters (2007) with a "financing premium". The augmentations of GOZ model include a signal effect for the provision of excess reserves, a signal effect and portfolio rebalancing effect and a variety elasticity of the external finance premium to entrepreneurs'net worth.
In the theoretical study of the international transmission mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy, economic capital flow equations mean that changes of any country's money supply will result in a net outflow of capital equilibrium. On this basis, it concludes that domestic monetary aggregates of a country are decided by both M2and net capital inflows. Then the influence on the price level and the level of asset prices are got by the Fisher equations with the introduction of the virtual economy (Liu Junmin,2001).
The paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of financial market stability and economic stimulus effect of the quantitative easing. In the financial crisis, the Fed's quantitative easing monetary policy was biased in favor of maintaining the stability of the financial market policy objectives through the balance sheet channel. The economic stimulus effect of quantitative easing is that it can stabilize financial markets, then open up the monetary policy transmission channels of monetary expansion, and thus stimulate aggregate demand through credit expansion, inflation, devaluation effects. The empirical test is made to test Fed's quantitative easing monetary policy's effect on the money supply, the gross demand and exchange rate. It proves that the economic impact of the expansion of the money supply is achieved through prices, capital markets and real estate markets. The global financial crisis is rooted in economic virtualization. The U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy stimulus effects are evaluated from the point of view of the virtual economy. It analyses the the interaction between virtual economy and real economy and then the interactions between virtual economy and capital monopoly. And then it points out the system causes of the financial crisis and limitations of quantitative easing monetary policy.
As the world's most powerful economy and the international reserve currency issuing country, the targets also include global goals. That is, the global optimum configuration of the capital of the United States. In this paper, the Fed's objectives and its impact are analyzed. Through the establishment of quantitative easing under this global economic game model of the U.S. economy, Europe, Japan and other developing economies in the monetary policy options of the game as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the portfolio selection of the game, reveals the U.S. policy to other countries in terms of policy choices. Empirical Analysis on the spillover effects of the Fed's monetary policy, analysis of the impact of the increase in the money supply on the price of capital BRICS significantly, which gave birth to the asset bubble in developing countries, brought to the capital markets instabilities. The second is to analyze the significant increase in money supply BRICS price shock effect, this creates uncertainty for the economic development of developing countries, and affects the independence of monetary policy in these countries.
Under the competing in the world's major developed economies to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, it analyses the background, operating characteristics and effect comparative analysis of the quantitative easing process of the world's major developed economies of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and the euro area. And then it makes a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the global economy.
China's economy has been greatly affected by the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy situation in the world's major economies led by the U.S.
China should deal with all aspects of these responses, including safeguarding national economic security, and promoting the reform of the international monetary system, and vigorously promoting the internationalization of the RMB, accelerating the optimization of the industrial structure, changing the mode of economic growth and prosecuting protectionism in order to catch up with strategic goal of self-development model.
量化宽松货币政策起源于大萧条后宽松货币政策操作,危机后的快速复苏进程表明量化宽松的有效性,货币主义的观点也表明了量化宽松的可行性。英国南安普顿大学的Werner(1991)首次提出量化宽松货币政策的概念,其既不是降息,也不同于简单的“印钞票”,而是通过量化规模来实现“信用创造”。量化宽松的货币政策最早使用于日本2001年发生的经济衰退时期,由于经济处于流动性陷阱状况,整个经济的投资意愿和需求都很低,而传统的货币政策的作用极其有限,于是非传统的量化宽松货币政策应运而生。日本在2000-2006年间实行了零利率货币政策以及量化宽松货币政策,这对量化宽松货币政策的理论体系进行了深化。货币非中性理论、克鲁格曼的“流动性陷阱”理论、资产负债表衰退、金融加速器理论、明斯基的金融不稳定理论等都是量化宽松货币政策的理论基础。在量化宽松货币政策的国内传导机制的理论研究中,本文在对Smets和Wouters(2007)提出的SW模型和Gilchrist et al.(2009)将“融资溢价”引入SW模型后的GOZ模型的基础上,提出了进一步的修正,加入美联储的超额存款准备金的信号效应、投资组合再平衡效应和融资溢价对企业净值的弹性系数,以此来考察QE的效果的显著性。在量化宽松货币政策的国际传导机制的理论研究中,本文通过各经济体的资本流动的的方程组,得出任何一个国家的货币供应量的变化,都会导致一个新的资本的净流出的均衡。在此基础上,本文得出结论：一个国家国内货币总量受M2和资本净流入两方面作用的影响。继而通过引入虚拟经济的费雪方程式(刘骏民,2001)分别得出对物价水平和资产价格水平的影响。
在量化宽松货币政策的国内传导机制中,本文分析了量化宽松的金融市场稳定和经济刺激效应的目标和传导机制。金融危机背景下,美联储实施的量化宽松货币政策偏向于通过资产负债表渠道维护金融市场稳定的政策目标。在经济刺激效应方面,量化宽松可以通过稳定金融市场打通货币政策传导渠道扩张货币,进而通过信贷扩张、通货膨胀、本币贬值等效应刺激总需求提升。本文对美联储量化宽松货币政策对货币供给增加、总需求增加以及汇率变化影响的实证检验,证明了货币供应量的扩张对经济的影响主要通过对物价、资本市场和房地产市场的提升而刺激总需求来实现的。全球金融危机的根源在于经济的虚拟化,本文从虚拟经济的角度对美量化宽松货币政策的经济刺激效果进行了评价,分别从虚拟经济和实体经济的互动关系以及虚拟经济与资本垄断的关系进行了分析,指出了金融危机的制度原因和量化宽松货币政策的局限性。
作为世界上最强大的经济体和国际储备货币美元发行国的美国,其量化宽松货币政策的调控目标并不仅仅只有国内目标,还包括全球目标,即为美国资本在全球进行最优配置提供资金支持。本文对美联储的目标及其影响进行了分析。本文通过建立量化宽松下的全球经济博弈模型,分析了美国经济体、欧日等发达国家经济体和发展中国家经济体在货币政策选择的博弈以及在货币政策和财政政策的组合选择的博弈,揭示了美国的政策对其它国家在政策选择的影响。本文对美联储的货币政策的溢出效应进行了实证分析,一是分析了货币供给的增加对金砖五国资本价格的冲击效果显著,这催生了发展中国家的资产泡沫,给资本市场带来了不稳定性。二是分析了货币供给的增加对金砖五国物价的冲击效果显著,这给发展中国家的经济发展带来了不确定性,并且影响了这些国家的货币政策的独立性。
在全球主要发达经济体竞相实行量化宽松货币政策的背景下,本文对美国、日本、英国和欧元区等全球主要发达经济体量化宽松过程进行全面的梳理并对其背景、操作特点和效果进行了对比分析,并在此基础上对发达经济体竞相量化宽松对全球经济的影响进行了全面的分析。
在以美国为首的全球主要经济体竞相实行量化宽松货币政策的形势下,中国经济受到很大的影响。中国应该从各个方面进行应对,这些应对措施包括维护国家经济安全和稳定增长、推动国际货币制度改革、大力推进人民币的国际化、加速优化产业结构、转变经济增长方式以及实行保护主义建立以赶超战略为目标的自主发展模式。
In2008, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis quickly turned into a financial crisis, and spreaded rapidly around the world. In response to the severe impact of the financial crisis on the U.S. economy, the Fed quickly transferred to the benchmark interest rate level of zero interest rates, and the introduction of this unconventional monetary policy of quantitative easing monetary policy.
Quantitative easing monetary policy originated the loose monetary policy operations in the Great Depression. The rapid post-crisis recovery process and the monetarist view that the effectiveness and feasibility of the quantitative easing monetary policy. Werner (1991) of The University of Southampton in the United Kingdom first proposed the concept of quantitative easing monetary policy. It is not cutting interest rates, nor "printing money", but to achieve the "credit creation" by quantifying the scale. Quantitative easing monetary policy was first used in Japan in2001during the recession, when the economy was in a liquidity trap and the willingness to invest and the demand were very low, and the traditional role of monetary policy was extremely limited, so non-traditional quantitative easing monetary policy came into being. It enriched and deepened the theoretical system of quantitative easing monetary policy. Non-neutral monetary theory, Krugman's "liquidity trap" theory, the financial accelerator theory, Minsky's financial instability theory are the theoretical basis of quantitative easing monetary policy. The base model which this thesis draws upon is the model developed by Gilchrist et al (2009) who augmented the Smets and Wouters (2007) with a "financing premium". The augmentations of GOZ model include a signal effect for the provision of excess reserves, a signal effect and portfolio rebalancing effect and a variety elasticity of the external finance premium to entrepreneurs'net worth.
In the theoretical study of the international transmission mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy, economic capital flow equations mean that changes of any country's money supply will result in a net outflow of capital equilibrium. On this basis, it concludes that domestic monetary aggregates of a country are decided by both M2and net capital inflows. Then the influence on the price level and the level of asset prices are got by the Fisher equations with the introduction of the virtual economy (Liu Junmin,2001).
The paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of financial market stability and economic stimulus effect of the quantitative easing. In the financial crisis, the Fed's quantitative easing monetary policy was biased in favor of maintaining the stability of the financial market policy objectives through the balance sheet channel. The economic stimulus effect of quantitative easing is that it can stabilize financial markets, then open up the monetary policy transmission channels of monetary expansion, and thus stimulate aggregate demand through credit expansion, inflation, devaluation effects. The empirical test is made to test Fed's quantitative easing monetary policy's effect on the money supply, the gross demand and exchange rate. It proves that the economic impact of the expansion of the money supply is achieved through prices, capital markets and real estate markets. The global financial crisis is rooted in economic virtualization. The U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy stimulus effects are evaluated from the point of view of the virtual economy. It analyses the the interaction between virtual economy and real economy and then the interactions between virtual economy and capital monopoly. And then it points out the system causes of the financial crisis and limitations of quantitative easing monetary policy.
As the world's most powerful economy and the international reserve currency issuing country, the targets also include global goals. That is, the global optimum configuration of the capital of the United States. In this paper, the Fed's objectives and its impact are analyzed. Through the establishment of quantitative easing under this global economic game model of the U.S. economy, Europe, Japan and other developing economies in the monetary policy options of the game as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the portfolio selection of the game, reveals the U.S. policy to other countries in terms of policy choices. Empirical Analysis on the spillover effects of the Fed's monetary policy, analysis of the impact of the increase in the money supply on the price of capital BRICS significantly, which gave birth to the asset bubble in developing countries, brought to the capital markets instabilities. The second is to analyze the significant increase in money supply BRICS price shock effect, this creates uncertainty for the economic development of developing countries, and affects the independence of monetary policy in these countries.
Under the competing in the world's major developed economies to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, it analyses the background, operating characteristics and effect comparative analysis of the quantitative easing process of the world's major developed economies of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and the euro area. And then it makes a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the global economy.
China's economy has been greatly affected by the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy situation in the world's major economies led by the U.S.
China should deal with all aspects of these responses, including safeguarding national economic security, and promoting the reform of the international monetary system, and vigorously promoting the internationalization of the RMB, accelerating the optimization of the industrial structure, changing the mode of economic growth and prosecuting protectionism in order to catch up with strategic goal of self-development model.
引文
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