开放经济下中国货币政策目标制选择的实证研究
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摘要
全球经济与金融一体化加速了各国资本的国际流动、市场的开放,进一步从微观上改进了全球范围内的资源优化配置。但是货币政策实施所依赖的整个金融运行环境的变化,因此从宏观角度上为政府制定整体经济政策带来了一定的难度。在制定货币政策的过程中,各国政府不仅要考虑到本国国内宏观经济运行状况,还要关注国际资本流动、世界经济波动等外部环境因素。于此同时,国际资本流动和世界经济形式也会对本国货币政策的改变做出反应,进而改变货币政策在国内的作用效果。在当前开放经济条件下,传统的货币政策工具已不能适应新的金融环境,货币政策目标制的选择需要适应新的变化。进入新世纪以来,我国经济发展一直面临十分复杂的内外部环境,具体表现为人民币升值压力、对外贸易摩擦加剧、资产价格膨胀等多种矛盾汇聚。尽管,我国央行出台一系列货币政策,但是效果却并不明显。因而,我国货币政策的有效性、货币政策目标框架选择等问题值得深入研究。
概括地说,本文是在经济学研究的基本框架下,在广泛收集数据的基础上,特别注重方法的运用与问题的研究相结合,从中国经济增长的基本问题出发,对我国货币政策目标制的选择问题进行研究。全文共分为七章,具体内容如下：
第一章：绪论。在此部分,将对全文做出概括性介绍,并分别就三个方面的内容进行了阐述。包括研究意义和研究背景,研究方法和技术路线,创新点和研究内容。
第二章：货币政策的相关理论概述。本章首先对货币政策的相关概念进行了界定和辨析,重点介绍了与本文研究密切相关的货币政策、中介目标、最终目标、最终目标规则与名义锚等概念；其次,介绍了货币政策中介目标选择的相关理论,主要包括货币主义学派、凯恩斯主义学派、后凯恩斯主义学派等理论；再次,介绍了货币政策最终目标的相关理论,包括货币政策的时间不一致理论、理性预期理论等,并分析规则与相机抉择的货币政策选择原则；最后,回顾了我国货币政策的演变历程。
第三章：开放经济下我国货币政策有效性分析。在对货币政策有效性进行理论分析的基础上,从宏观经济目标实现和货币政策工具选择两个角度出发,基于我国货币政策的历史演变,采用方差分解和基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数等计量方法,利用实证模型评价和分析我国货币政策自亚洲金融危机依赖的有效性问题。在这一章,本文通过对金融危机以来,我国货币政策调控经历的“防通缩”、“控温降速防通胀”和“保增长、防通缩与通胀”三个阶段分别建立实证模型以及对整体样本期建立实证模型,实证比较了不同经济阶段下我国货币政策的有效性问题,
第四章：开放经济下我国货币供应量中介目标的选择。本章基于货币政策中介目标选择的三个标准,并结合我国目前的经济形势,分别从相关性、可测性、可控性和传导机制效果四个方面对我国货币供应量作为货币政策中介指标的可行性进行了理论与实证分析,得出相应的研究结论。
第五章：开放经济下我国利率中介目标的选择。本章从理论与实证两个方面论证了Taylor规则及其扩展形式是否能够很好地模拟我国的货币政策变化趋势,进一步具体分析了利率能否作为评价货币政策有效性的中介目标,并在实证结论的基础上分析了Taylor规则在中国具体实施过程中所面临的一些问题。本章的研究结论为利率规则是货币当局对利率政策进行调控时所依据的政策规则；原始的Taylor规则并不适用于我国,扩展的Taylor规则对我国更加适用。
第六章：开放经济下我国货币政策目标制的选择。本章首先通过对我国现行的汇率目标制、货币目标制与通货膨胀目标制的比较分析,发现通货膨胀目标制能很好的弥补我国现行目标制中存在的缺点。然后,从制度、经济、技术、市场四个角度分析了通货膨胀目标制在我国实行所需满足的条件。最后,从央行货币政策损失函数最小化的角度出发建立理论模型并进行了实证研究,研究表明,“通货膨胀目标制”下的通胀偏差要相对小于“相机抉择机制”情况下的通胀偏差,因而,我国可以把通货膨胀目标制作为未来的货币政策取向。
第七章：汇总了本文的总体研究结论,给出了相应的政策建议,并提出未来研究展望。
本文在以下几个方面做出创新性的研究：第一,不仅评价了传统研究下货币政策制定实施的目标有效性,而且还分析了到货币政策在调控工具选择方面的有效性。将整个样本期划分为不同的阶段进行研究,考察不同时期下货币政策的有效性。第二,国内很多学者在研究中并没有清晰区分货币政策中介目标与最终目标之间的关系,本文在研究过程中明确对二者加以区分。第三,在我国货币供应量中介目标可行性、影响因素及适用条件进行实证检验的基础上,对利率中介目标进行了深入研究。通过构建一个包含主要资产和金融信息的金融状况指数纳入Taylor规则中进行研究,同时也对其他所有可能的Taylor规则进行对比分析,证明了本文的研究模型是适用和可靠的。第四,通过对我国现行目标制与灵活的通货膨胀目标制的对比分析,发现灵活的通货膨胀目标制是我国货币政策目标制的一个可行选择。通过数理推导得出灵活通货膨胀目标制下的最优货币规则,并应用中国的实际数据进行实证检验。但绝大多数的研究中仅仅从实证的角度加以说明,没有明确的理论基础。
The global economic and financial integration accelerate the opening of the market in every country and the international flow of capital, and improve the optimization of resources in the world from the microscopic view. However, the change of the entire financial operating environment on which the implementation of monetary policy depends makes the formulation of economic policy difficult for the government in the macroscopic perspective. Every government should not only consider the domestic macroeconomic performances, but also concern about external environmental factors like the world economic fluctuations and international capital flows. Meanwhile, the global economic and international capital flows will also react to the changes of monetary policy, thereby affecting the effects of monetary policy. In an open economy, the traditional tools of monetary policy have been unable to meet the new financial environment, so that the choice of monetary policy targeting needs to adapt to new changes. Since the beginning of the21st century, the economy in China has been overheating and cooling alternately. Specific performances are that the asset price inflates, foreign trade frictions intensify, RMB is forced to appreciate, and so on. These contradictions led to frequent operations of China's central bank, while the effects of its monetary policy like frequent and strong controls of emergency funds were not prominent. As a result, it is worthy of further study about China's monetary policy issues such as the effectiveness of monetary policy and the choice of monetary policy targeting.
Broadly speaking, the paper is under the basic framework of economics researches. Based on the extensive data collection, it focuses on the combination of the use of methods and researches on problems in particular. Then, it starts from the basic problems of China's economic growth, and analyzes the choice of China's monetary policy targeting. The article is divided into following seven chapters:
Chapter1is Introduction. This chapter gives a general introduction for the dissertation. It mainly describes three aspects, including background and significance, technology roadmap and research methods, and research contents and innovations.
Chapter2is the overview of related theories about monetary policy. First of all, this chapter defines and discriminates related concepts about monetary policy, mainly introducing concepts which are closely related with this paper, such as the monetary policy, the intermediate target, the ultimate target, the ultimate target rule, and the nominal anchor. Next, it describes some related theories about the selection of monetary policy intermediate target, including Post Keynesian School, Monetarist School, Keynesian School and so on. Then, it presents some related theories about the monetary policy ultimate target, including time inconsistency of monetary policy and rational expectations, and analyzes optional principles of monetary policy. At last, it reviews the evolution of China's monetary policy.
Chapter3is the analysis of China's monetary policy's effectiveness in an open economy. On the basis of theoretical analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy, this chapter begins with two views-the achievement of macroeconomic objectives and the selection of monetary policy tools. Based on the evolution of China's monetary policy, it uses econometric methods, like impulse response function and variance decomposition in VAR model, to analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of China's monetary policy since the Asian financial crisis in empirical perspective. In this chapter, it will build empirical models respectively for three periods 'anti-deflation','deceleration and anti-inflation' and 'growth maintenance, anti-inflation and anti-deflation' as well as a model for the entire sample period, and then make an empirical comparison on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy under different economic stages.
Chapter4is the choice of intermediate targets for monetary supply in open economy. This chapter analyses the feasibility of the intermediate indicator of monetary policy which is the money supply in China in the perspectives of theory and empirical proof from four aspects:correlation, measurability, controllability and transmission. Besides, this analysis is based on three standards for the choice of intermediate targets for monetary policy and also combined with the economic situation. Finally, some corresponding conclusions are similarly draw.
Chapter5is the choice of intermediate targets for interest rates in China. This chapter makes a theoretical and empirical analysis of Taylor rules and their extended forms to determine which form can simulate the trend of monetary policy effectively in China, and thus determining whether interest rates can be used as the intermediate target of monetary policy. In addition, this chapter also studies the possible problems emerging in the process of implementation of Taylor rules based on the empirical conclusions. The conclusion draw in this chapter is that interest rate is the principle of policies when the government takes measures to control the interest rates. The original Taylor rule does not apply to China while extended Taylor rules are more applicable.
Chapter6is the selection of China's monetary policy targeting in an open economy. In the first place, this chapter makes a comparative analysis of China's current exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting and inflation targeting, and finds that the inflation targeting can be good to make up for the shortcomings of the current targeting. In the second place, it analyzes the conditions required for the inflation targeting to implement in China from four aspects-the system, the economy, the technology and the market. Finally, it establishes a theoretical model and makes an empirical analysis on the basis of minimizing the loss function of monetary policy. The results show that the inflation deviation of inflation targeting is less than that of contingent choice, so that the inflation targeting is the trend for China's monetary policy in the future.
Chapter7is the conclusion. This chapter summarizes the overall conclusions of the paper, provides some corresponding policy recommendations, and proposes future research prospects.
This paper makes innovative research on the following aspects. First, this paper not only examines the effectiveness of monetary policy goals in the traditional research, but also considers the effectiveness of the selection of control tools of monetary policy. The whole sample period is divided into different stages, to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in the different period separately. Second, most domestic scholars do not make a clear recognition on the distinction between intermediate target of monetary policy and ultimate goal of monetary policy. This paper will provide a clearly distinction of the both in the process of researching. Third, based on the empirical test of the feasibility, influence factors and suitable conditions of monetary policy, this paper makes a deep research on the intermediate target of interest rate. By researching the Taylor rule contained a financial condition index, which is constructed to contain major assets and financial information, and some other Taylor rules, this paper proved that the model here is applicable and reliable. Fourth, by contrastive analysis the difference between the current targeting and agile inflation targeting, this paper finds that agile inflation targeting is a viable option of monetary policy for China to choose. This paper deduces the optimal monetary rules of agile inflation targeting mathematically, and empirical tests the effect with the actual data in China. However, most of the researches only focus on the perspective of empirical test, which lacks clear theoretical basis.
概括地说,本文是在经济学研究的基本框架下,在广泛收集数据的基础上,特别注重方法的运用与问题的研究相结合,从中国经济增长的基本问题出发,对我国货币政策目标制的选择问题进行研究。全文共分为七章,具体内容如下：
第一章：绪论。在此部分,将对全文做出概括性介绍,并分别就三个方面的内容进行了阐述。包括研究意义和研究背景,研究方法和技术路线,创新点和研究内容。
第二章：货币政策的相关理论概述。本章首先对货币政策的相关概念进行了界定和辨析,重点介绍了与本文研究密切相关的货币政策、中介目标、最终目标、最终目标规则与名义锚等概念；其次,介绍了货币政策中介目标选择的相关理论,主要包括货币主义学派、凯恩斯主义学派、后凯恩斯主义学派等理论；再次,介绍了货币政策最终目标的相关理论,包括货币政策的时间不一致理论、理性预期理论等,并分析规则与相机抉择的货币政策选择原则；最后,回顾了我国货币政策的演变历程。
第三章：开放经济下我国货币政策有效性分析。在对货币政策有效性进行理论分析的基础上,从宏观经济目标实现和货币政策工具选择两个角度出发,基于我国货币政策的历史演变,采用方差分解和基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数等计量方法,利用实证模型评价和分析我国货币政策自亚洲金融危机依赖的有效性问题。在这一章,本文通过对金融危机以来,我国货币政策调控经历的“防通缩”、“控温降速防通胀”和“保增长、防通缩与通胀”三个阶段分别建立实证模型以及对整体样本期建立实证模型,实证比较了不同经济阶段下我国货币政策的有效性问题,
第四章：开放经济下我国货币供应量中介目标的选择。本章基于货币政策中介目标选择的三个标准,并结合我国目前的经济形势,分别从相关性、可测性、可控性和传导机制效果四个方面对我国货币供应量作为货币政策中介指标的可行性进行了理论与实证分析,得出相应的研究结论。
第五章：开放经济下我国利率中介目标的选择。本章从理论与实证两个方面论证了Taylor规则及其扩展形式是否能够很好地模拟我国的货币政策变化趋势,进一步具体分析了利率能否作为评价货币政策有效性的中介目标,并在实证结论的基础上分析了Taylor规则在中国具体实施过程中所面临的一些问题。本章的研究结论为利率规则是货币当局对利率政策进行调控时所依据的政策规则；原始的Taylor规则并不适用于我国,扩展的Taylor规则对我国更加适用。
第六章：开放经济下我国货币政策目标制的选择。本章首先通过对我国现行的汇率目标制、货币目标制与通货膨胀目标制的比较分析,发现通货膨胀目标制能很好的弥补我国现行目标制中存在的缺点。然后,从制度、经济、技术、市场四个角度分析了通货膨胀目标制在我国实行所需满足的条件。最后,从央行货币政策损失函数最小化的角度出发建立理论模型并进行了实证研究,研究表明,“通货膨胀目标制”下的通胀偏差要相对小于“相机抉择机制”情况下的通胀偏差,因而,我国可以把通货膨胀目标制作为未来的货币政策取向。
第七章：汇总了本文的总体研究结论,给出了相应的政策建议,并提出未来研究展望。
本文在以下几个方面做出创新性的研究：第一,不仅评价了传统研究下货币政策制定实施的目标有效性,而且还分析了到货币政策在调控工具选择方面的有效性。将整个样本期划分为不同的阶段进行研究,考察不同时期下货币政策的有效性。第二,国内很多学者在研究中并没有清晰区分货币政策中介目标与最终目标之间的关系,本文在研究过程中明确对二者加以区分。第三,在我国货币供应量中介目标可行性、影响因素及适用条件进行实证检验的基础上,对利率中介目标进行了深入研究。通过构建一个包含主要资产和金融信息的金融状况指数纳入Taylor规则中进行研究,同时也对其他所有可能的Taylor规则进行对比分析,证明了本文的研究模型是适用和可靠的。第四,通过对我国现行目标制与灵活的通货膨胀目标制的对比分析,发现灵活的通货膨胀目标制是我国货币政策目标制的一个可行选择。通过数理推导得出灵活通货膨胀目标制下的最优货币规则,并应用中国的实际数据进行实证检验。但绝大多数的研究中仅仅从实证的角度加以说明,没有明确的理论基础。
The global economic and financial integration accelerate the opening of the market in every country and the international flow of capital, and improve the optimization of resources in the world from the microscopic view. However, the change of the entire financial operating environment on which the implementation of monetary policy depends makes the formulation of economic policy difficult for the government in the macroscopic perspective. Every government should not only consider the domestic macroeconomic performances, but also concern about external environmental factors like the world economic fluctuations and international capital flows. Meanwhile, the global economic and international capital flows will also react to the changes of monetary policy, thereby affecting the effects of monetary policy. In an open economy, the traditional tools of monetary policy have been unable to meet the new financial environment, so that the choice of monetary policy targeting needs to adapt to new changes. Since the beginning of the21st century, the economy in China has been overheating and cooling alternately. Specific performances are that the asset price inflates, foreign trade frictions intensify, RMB is forced to appreciate, and so on. These contradictions led to frequent operations of China's central bank, while the effects of its monetary policy like frequent and strong controls of emergency funds were not prominent. As a result, it is worthy of further study about China's monetary policy issues such as the effectiveness of monetary policy and the choice of monetary policy targeting.
Broadly speaking, the paper is under the basic framework of economics researches. Based on the extensive data collection, it focuses on the combination of the use of methods and researches on problems in particular. Then, it starts from the basic problems of China's economic growth, and analyzes the choice of China's monetary policy targeting. The article is divided into following seven chapters:
Chapter1is Introduction. This chapter gives a general introduction for the dissertation. It mainly describes three aspects, including background and significance, technology roadmap and research methods, and research contents and innovations.
Chapter2is the overview of related theories about monetary policy. First of all, this chapter defines and discriminates related concepts about monetary policy, mainly introducing concepts which are closely related with this paper, such as the monetary policy, the intermediate target, the ultimate target, the ultimate target rule, and the nominal anchor. Next, it describes some related theories about the selection of monetary policy intermediate target, including Post Keynesian School, Monetarist School, Keynesian School and so on. Then, it presents some related theories about the monetary policy ultimate target, including time inconsistency of monetary policy and rational expectations, and analyzes optional principles of monetary policy. At last, it reviews the evolution of China's monetary policy.
Chapter3is the analysis of China's monetary policy's effectiveness in an open economy. On the basis of theoretical analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy, this chapter begins with two views-the achievement of macroeconomic objectives and the selection of monetary policy tools. Based on the evolution of China's monetary policy, it uses econometric methods, like impulse response function and variance decomposition in VAR model, to analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of China's monetary policy since the Asian financial crisis in empirical perspective. In this chapter, it will build empirical models respectively for three periods 'anti-deflation','deceleration and anti-inflation' and 'growth maintenance, anti-inflation and anti-deflation' as well as a model for the entire sample period, and then make an empirical comparison on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy under different economic stages.
Chapter4is the choice of intermediate targets for monetary supply in open economy. This chapter analyses the feasibility of the intermediate indicator of monetary policy which is the money supply in China in the perspectives of theory and empirical proof from four aspects:correlation, measurability, controllability and transmission. Besides, this analysis is based on three standards for the choice of intermediate targets for monetary policy and also combined with the economic situation. Finally, some corresponding conclusions are similarly draw.
Chapter5is the choice of intermediate targets for interest rates in China. This chapter makes a theoretical and empirical analysis of Taylor rules and their extended forms to determine which form can simulate the trend of monetary policy effectively in China, and thus determining whether interest rates can be used as the intermediate target of monetary policy. In addition, this chapter also studies the possible problems emerging in the process of implementation of Taylor rules based on the empirical conclusions. The conclusion draw in this chapter is that interest rate is the principle of policies when the government takes measures to control the interest rates. The original Taylor rule does not apply to China while extended Taylor rules are more applicable.
Chapter6is the selection of China's monetary policy targeting in an open economy. In the first place, this chapter makes a comparative analysis of China's current exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting and inflation targeting, and finds that the inflation targeting can be good to make up for the shortcomings of the current targeting. In the second place, it analyzes the conditions required for the inflation targeting to implement in China from four aspects-the system, the economy, the technology and the market. Finally, it establishes a theoretical model and makes an empirical analysis on the basis of minimizing the loss function of monetary policy. The results show that the inflation deviation of inflation targeting is less than that of contingent choice, so that the inflation targeting is the trend for China's monetary policy in the future.
Chapter7is the conclusion. This chapter summarizes the overall conclusions of the paper, provides some corresponding policy recommendations, and proposes future research prospects.
This paper makes innovative research on the following aspects. First, this paper not only examines the effectiveness of monetary policy goals in the traditional research, but also considers the effectiveness of the selection of control tools of monetary policy. The whole sample period is divided into different stages, to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in the different period separately. Second, most domestic scholars do not make a clear recognition on the distinction between intermediate target of monetary policy and ultimate goal of monetary policy. This paper will provide a clearly distinction of the both in the process of researching. Third, based on the empirical test of the feasibility, influence factors and suitable conditions of monetary policy, this paper makes a deep research on the intermediate target of interest rate. By researching the Taylor rule contained a financial condition index, which is constructed to contain major assets and financial information, and some other Taylor rules, this paper proved that the model here is applicable and reliable. Fourth, by contrastive analysis the difference between the current targeting and agile inflation targeting, this paper finds that agile inflation targeting is a viable option of monetary policy for China to choose. This paper deduces the optimal monetary rules of agile inflation targeting mathematically, and empirical tests the effect with the actual data in China. However, most of the researches only focus on the perspective of empirical test, which lacks clear theoretical basis.
引文
[1]卞志村.泰勒规则的实证问题及在中国的检验.金融研究,2006,(8)：56-69.
[2]卞志村.通货膨胀目标制：理论、实践及在中国的检验.金融研究,2007,(9)：42-54.
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