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产业集群发展中的人力资本积累研究
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摘要
改革开放30多年来,产业集群在全国各地蓬勃发展,已经成为推动区域经济发展的重要增长点。然而,目前其发展成就的取得主要是在过度依赖物质资本和自然资源投入的基础上,这种过度依赖性制约着产业集群的进一步发展。而随着产业集群的升级和转型,人力资本要素在产业集群发展中的作用日益凸显。如何提高人力资本积累水平并使之与产业集群协调发展,已经成为当前国内外学术界关注的重要课题。近年来,为了提高集群人力资本积累水平,促进产业集群发展,各级政府和集群企业均采取了一系列举措。本文研究集群外部政策支持和集群内部企业投入对集群发展的影响效应,对于面临人员规模扩张受限、生产率提升速度缓慢和人力资本结构不合理的杭州高新软件园来说,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
     本研究以产业集群理论和入力资本理论为基础,首先全面梳理了国内外者关产业集群发展中人力资本积累的研究成果,从人力资本积累的投资主体、投资类型、积累形式和积累过程四个方面,结合集群人力资本积累的特征,提出了产业集群人力资本积累的形成机制。然后,运用系统动力学原理构建了反映产业集群人力资本积累特点与形成机制的理论模型。在此基础上,针对杭州高新软件园人力资本积累现状、问题及影响因素,对理论模型在变量和参数上进行拓展,详细描述模型的构建过程和结构特征,得到系统反映杭州高新软件园集群人力资本数量积累、质量积累和结构水平与集群发展目标相互影响与作用的系统动力学仿真模型。最后,运用该仿真模型,模拟分析在集群外部政策和内部投入变化情景下集群人力资本积累水平对产业集群发展的影响效应。本研究的主要内容与结论包含以下五个方面:
     第一,产业集群人力资本积累问题研究的理论分析框架。在相关理论与文献述评的基础上,结合产业集群人力资本积累的特点,深入分析产业集群人力资本积累的形成机制,运用系统动力学原理,分别构建了反映产业集群人力资本数量积累、质量积累和结构水平与产业集群发展相互影响与作用的理论模型,为下文研究提供了一般分析思路与方法。
     第二,杭州高新软件园人力资本积累影响因素分析。在对软件园被调研企业数据进行描述性统计分析的基础上,将统计分析的结果与软件园整体统计数据进行对比,确认被调研企业选取的典型性,并提出了软件园人力资本积累的影响因素为:政府支持、企业投入、集群发展空间、集群发展目标和人力资本结构,并就每一因素与产业集群发展之间的关系进行了深入分析。上述影响因素既是后文模型构建的关键性变量,也是模型仿真模拟情景选择的理论基础。
     第三,杭州高新软件园人力资本积累的系统动力学仿真模型构建。根据软件园人力资本积累的影响因素,从数量、质量和结构三个维度分别对理论模型进行变量和参数上的进一步拓展,用函数详细描述变量及参数间关系,并根据软件园实地调研数据和描述性统计分析结果,对参数进行赋值,使之具体反映软件园人力资本数量积累、质量积累和结构水平与政府预期的集群发展目标相互影响与作用的特点。
     第四,仿真模型在不同情景下的模拟分析。本文对杭州高新软件园人力资本数量积累、质量积累和结构优化的仿真模型分别设计了不同的情景进行模拟分析,主要结果表明:(1)现实情形下软件园人力资本积累水平与集群发展目标不相一致,其人力资本在数量、质量和结构各维度上均存在调整的空间;(2)政府配置于集群人才引进、安置上的投入占人力资本总投入的比例从17%提高至24%,或者将支持企业研发和员工培训的投入占人力资本总投入的比例从83%提高至95.5%,集群人力资本积累水平可满足政府预期的集群发展目标要求。(3)集群企业用于人力资本数量积累的费用从利润的5%提高至7.1%,或者将配置于研发和员工培训的费用从利润的25%提高至28.6%时,集群人力资本积累水平亦能实现集群发展目标;(4)在软件园发展空间不受限的情景下,政府和企业的人力资本数量积累投入均比质量积累投入更有效,但事实上从2014年开始软件园发展空间将制约软件园人员规模的进一步扩张。政府应从软件园长远发展权衡其在人力资本数量和质量积累上的投入比例,企业应提高研发投入和员工培训投入的产出效益。(5)在保持招聘时间周期不变的条件下,岗前培训时间周期从0.25年调整至0.5年时,未上岗人员数量和已上岗人员数量的增长趋势符合软件园发展实际;(6)将初级和中级人才的成长时间分别从5年和2年缩短为3年和1年,使中、高级人才的比例分别保持在36%和60%左右,则优化的集群人力资本结构可使软件园实现政府期望的发展水平。
     第五,主要结论与政策启示。在归纳本文主要研究结论的基础上,以提高集群人力资本积累水平并使之与产业集群协调发展为目标,从完善劳动力市场体系、加强集群外部环境建设、健全政府人力资本投资体系、加强中高级人才引进力度、完善企业培训体系、提高企业培训及研发的投资效益以及优化人力资本结构等方面提出了本文的政策启示。
     本文将人力资本积累问题置于产业集群这一特殊的组织形态下进行研究,拓展了人力资本研究的组织界限,突破了以往从产业集群和人力资本积累角度分别进行研究的不足。而且,本文从人力资本的各个维度对产业集群人力资本积累问题进行研究,突破了以往对人力资本积累从单个维度或其中两者进行研究的不足。本文结合产业集群人力资本积累特征和杭州高新软件园人力资本积累现状构建的产业集群人力资本积累各模型系统性地揭示出集群人力资本数量、质量和结构水平与产业集群发展目标之间的影响关系与作用机制。上述模型可以在后续研究中通过不断更新模型参数数据,发展成为一套能长期使用的、用于研究同类软件产业集群或其他知识密集型产业集群人力资本积累问题的科学的分析工具。基于上述仿真模型的模拟分析所得出的研究结论对地方政府制定行之有效的产业集群发展战略具有较高的实用价值,为集群人员规模扩张、生产率提升以及人力资本结构调整等方面提供了前瞻性的决策依据。
Since over30years reform and opening up, industrial clusters have been flourishing across the country and becoming important economic growth point for regional development. However, the achievements that have been made are excessively relied on the input of material capital and natural resources. So, human capital, as a factor of production, is playing an increasingly important role in the industrial cluster development. It has become an important issue for academic researchers on how to improve the level of human capital accumulation and thus to accord with the development of industrial clusters. In recent years, in order to enhance the clusters'human capital accumulation performance, governments at all levels have taken a series of initiatives. The dissertation studies the performance effects on the development goal of the industry cluster by government's support and enterprises' input, and is of great theoretical and practical significance to Hangzhou Hi-tech Software Park who is facing staff's scale limit, average productivity's low increase and human capital structure's impropriety.
     The dissertation, based on industrial cluster theory and human capital theory, firstly sorts out the studying achievements on human capital accumulation issues within the development of industrial clusters, and proposes the mechanism of industrial cluster's human capital accumulation from the respects of investors, investment forms, accumulation dimensions and accumulation procedures. Secondly, by employing system dynamics theory, this paper constructs the theoretical models which manifests the features and the forming mechanism of industrial cluster's human capital accumulation. Based on these theoretical models, integrating the present situations, problems and influence factors of Hangzhou Hi-tech Software Park, the paper expands the models with variables and parameters, and describes the constructing procedures and structures'characters in detail, and concludes in system dynamics simulation models demonstrating the mutual relationships between Software Park's human capital's quantity accumulation, quality accumulation and structure level with the goal of the industry cluster. Finally, under the changing senarios of external supporting policy and internal investments, this research analyzes the effects of cluster's human capital accumulation level to the development of the industry cluster by employing the above simulation models. The main contents and the conclusions of this study are as follows.
     First, the theoretical analyzing framework about the issue of human capital accumulation in industry cluster's development is built. Based on the relative theories and literatures' review and integrated the characteristics of human capital accumulation in industry clusters, this paper analyzes the forming mechanism of cluster's human capital accumulation in depth, and then constructs the theoretical models manifesting the mutual influence of cluster human capital's quantity accumulation, quality accumulation and structure level with the development of industry cluster by employing the theory of system dynamics, and this provides the basic analysis methodology for the following research.
     Second, the influence factors of human capital accumulation for Hangzhou Hi-tech Software Park are analyzed. Base on the descriptive statistical analysis results from the surveyed enterprises data of the software park, this paper compares these results with the statistical data of the whole park, and confirms the typicality of the surveyed enterprises, and puts forward the influence factors of human capital accumulation, namely government's support, enterprises' investments, cluster development space and human capital structure, and analyzes the relationship between each factor and the cluster's development goal. These influence factors are the key variables for the models to be constructed later, and are also the theory foundation to the senarios' selection for the simulation.
     Third, system dynamics simulation models of human capital accumulation are constructed for Hangzhou Hi-tech Software Park. According to the influence factors of the Park, the paper expands the models with variables and parameters, and describes the relationships between variables and parameters, and then assign the initial values of the above parameters with the surveyed data and statistical analysis results and thus to specifically reflect the mutual influence effects of quantity accumulation, quality accumulation and structure level with cluster's development goal.
     Fourth, simulation analysis is done under different scenarios. Proper scenarios are designed to simulation models of human capital's quantity accumulation, quality accumulation and structure optimization respectively. The main conclusions show that:(1) it is feasible to adjust the cluster's human capital accumulation level in quantity, quality and structure respectively under the current inconsistency situation in software park's human capital accumulation and the cluster's development goal;(2) the cluster's human capital accumulation level can meet the cluster's development requirement if the government raises the proportion of human capital's quantity accumulation fee in the total human capital investments from17%to24%, or raises the proportion of human capital's quality accumulation fee in the total human capital investments from83%to95.5%;(3) if enterprises within the park raises the proportion of human capital's quantity accumulation fee of the profit from5%to7.1%, or raises the proportion of human capital's quality accumulation fee of the profit from25%to28.6%; the above goal can be achieved as well;(4) under the scenario that without the limit of cluster's development space, it is more efficient to invest in human capital's quantity accumulation than quality accumulation either for government or for the enterprises. In fact, from the end of2013, the cluster's development space available will be the most important restraint to the further staff scale's expansion. So, the government should make the trade-off in human capital's quantity investments and quality ones while the enterprises should enhance the input and output efficiency on R&D and staff's training;(5) without changing the recruiting time length, when the newly recruited staff's training time is adjusted from0.25year to0.5year, the increasing trends both for the newly recruited staff t and the working staff are more suitable to the actual development of the cluster;(6) if the upgrade time of primary level talents and medium level talents shortens from5years and2years to3years and1year respectively, the optimized structure with the proportion of36%for medium level staff and60%for high level staff can make the park achieve the desired goal.
     Fifth, according to the above theoretical research and simulation analysis, main conclusions are drawn and policy enlightenments are proposed to enhance the cluster's human capital accumulation level and thus to be accord with the cluster's development. The main policy implications points out that the government should make the labor market system mature, strengthen the cluster's external environments' construction and improve human capital investments system while the enterprises within the cluster should establish and develop its staff training system, speed up in personnel training, raise intensity to attract high-quality personnel, enhance the efficiency of R&D investments, and optimize the human capital structure.
     Laying on the special organization pattern of industry cluster for the issue of human capital accumulation, the dissertation breaks through the limitations of previous studies either on the industry cluster issue or on human capital accumulation issue separately and extends the study's boundary limit, And what's more, it breaks through the limitation of previous studies on one or two dimensions of human capital accumulation instead of the three. The theoretical models featuring the characteristics of industry cluster's human capital accumulation and the present situation of Hangzhou Hi-tech Software Park reveals the relationship and mechanism of cluster's human capital accumulation in quantity, quality and structure with cluster's development goal. The conclusions drawn based on the analysis of the above simulation models are of high practical value both to local government's strategies making and the cluster staff scale's expanding, productivity's enhancing and structure's adjusting.
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