收入差距、有效需求不足与经济增长放缓
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摘要
发生在中等收入水平阶段的增长放缓是引起发展中国家普遍重视的问题。目前，我国的经济增长速度明显下降，国内收入分配差距较大，消费需求明显不足，经济增长动力的亟需调整。基于此，本文主要从以下方面展开研宄：
首先，本文按照中等收入国家的发展经历，梳理现有理论并在此基础上构建了由有效需求不足引致经济增长放缓的理论模型。模型解释了（1)在存在资本成本差异的经济环境中收入差距形成的原因。（2)在存在收入差距的条件下，低收入群体集中选择低质量等级产品导致有效需求不足，使经济增长在低水平出现均衡的原因。（3)有效需求不足通过影响企业创新抑制经济增长的内在机理。（4)开放经济条件下由于存在技术差距和不平等分工，中等收入国家出现创新抑制的原因，以及由有效需求不足和产业结构优化动力不足导致“中等收入陷阱”的形成路径。
其次，本文选取代表性中等收入国家和发达国家的相关数据，总结这些国家的经济增长经验事实，并主要验证了收入差距和居民消费对经济增长放缓的作用。实证结果表明，无论是在中等收入水平阶段还是在高收入水平阶段均会发生经济增长放缓。中等收入国家的居民消费率和基尼系数均与农业、服务业产值比重同向变动，与工业产值比重反向变动。在经济增长放缓影响因素的判定方面，发现居民消费率提高与出口增加均能降低发达国家经济增长放缓发生的可能性，但能提高经济增长进入稳态的可能性。而对于中等收入国家的模型检验结果表明，在现阶段虽然收入差距扩大制约了人均GNI增长率的提高，但仍然能够降低出现经济增长放缓和增长停滞的可能性。对代表性五国的实证结果表明工业产值相对于农业产值比重的提高增加了经济增长陷入停滞的可能性。
再次，本文对我国的居民消费、收入差距与经济增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明，我国的居民收入分布逐渐向低水平集中，收入差距扩大。在收入差距的作用下，居民消费结构升级的速度滞后于居民消费率上升的速度。收入差距扩大影响了工业化的质量，抑制了居民消费率提升。较大的收入差距将降低居民消费率提高对经济增长的拉动作用，因此提高居民消费率应以缩小收入差距为前提。
最后，本文指出了研宄启示并给出研宄展望。
The growth slowdown occurred in the middle-income stage draw developing countries'attention greatly. Now China's economic growth has dropped signiifcantly, with the biggerdomestic income distribution gap and insuiffcient consumer demand. It's urgently needed toreshape the economic growth impetus. This article mainly launches the research from thefollowing aspects:
First of all, on the basis of existing research, this paper simulated the development ofdeveloping countries, and constructed the theory model to explain the economic growthslowdown caused by insufifcient effective demand. The model explains (1) The unbalancedcapital cost is clearly tilt the economic environment which become the cause of the income gap.(2) Low-income groups concentrate in choosing low quality level products which induces theinsuiffcient effective demand and causes to the lower balance point of the economic growth.(3)The internal mechanism of economic growth in the view of the insuiffcient effective demandrestricting enetrprise innovation.(4) In the condition of open economy due to the technology gapand inequality division of labor, the innovation and the effective demand in developing countriesis insufifcient, which leads to the formation mechanism of the "middle-income trap".
Secondly，this article selects representative middle-income countries and developedco'untries economic growth data to summarize the experience of these countries, and veriyfeffect that the income gap and residents consumption bring to the economic growth process. Theempirical facts show that slowdown will occur both in the middle-income and the high-incomestage. Residents' ifnal consumption rate and gini coeiffcient in the middle-income trap nationimprove the development of agriculture and tertiary industry, and restrict the industrialization. Inthe respect of the inlfuential factors in determining the slowdown, it's found that raising the ratioof consumption and more exports will release the probability of the economic growth ratedecline，but it can increase the likelihood of economic growth equilibrium in the developedcountries. For the middle-income countries, the results show that the gini coeiffcient only restrictthe increase of the GNI per capita growth rate, but they weakened the probability of theslowdown and the stagnation，however according to the result of the representative ifve countries the improvement of the industrialization level will increase the possibility ofslowdown.
Again, this article has empirical test to the relationship of the residents' consumption, theincome gap and economic growth in China. The results show that the income in China is low,and the income gap become wider. With the effect of income inequality, the upgrade rate ofresident's consumption structure is slower than the rising ratio of consumption. Incomeinequality inlfuences the quality of industrialization and suppresses the promotion ofconsumption. The results of the empirical test also show that the large income gap will bringdown the rate of economic growth by weaken the effect of consumption, thus the increase ofresident's consumption rate should be raised on the premise of narrowing of income gap.
Finally, this paper points out the research revelation and the research prospect.
首先，本文按照中等收入国家的发展经历，梳理现有理论并在此基础上构建了由有效需求不足引致经济增长放缓的理论模型。模型解释了（1)在存在资本成本差异的经济环境中收入差距形成的原因。（2)在存在收入差距的条件下，低收入群体集中选择低质量等级产品导致有效需求不足，使经济增长在低水平出现均衡的原因。（3)有效需求不足通过影响企业创新抑制经济增长的内在机理。（4)开放经济条件下由于存在技术差距和不平等分工，中等收入国家出现创新抑制的原因，以及由有效需求不足和产业结构优化动力不足导致“中等收入陷阱”的形成路径。
其次，本文选取代表性中等收入国家和发达国家的相关数据，总结这些国家的经济增长经验事实，并主要验证了收入差距和居民消费对经济增长放缓的作用。实证结果表明，无论是在中等收入水平阶段还是在高收入水平阶段均会发生经济增长放缓。中等收入国家的居民消费率和基尼系数均与农业、服务业产值比重同向变动，与工业产值比重反向变动。在经济增长放缓影响因素的判定方面，发现居民消费率提高与出口增加均能降低发达国家经济增长放缓发生的可能性，但能提高经济增长进入稳态的可能性。而对于中等收入国家的模型检验结果表明，在现阶段虽然收入差距扩大制约了人均GNI增长率的提高，但仍然能够降低出现经济增长放缓和增长停滞的可能性。对代表性五国的实证结果表明工业产值相对于农业产值比重的提高增加了经济增长陷入停滞的可能性。
再次，本文对我国的居民消费、收入差距与经济增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明，我国的居民收入分布逐渐向低水平集中，收入差距扩大。在收入差距的作用下，居民消费结构升级的速度滞后于居民消费率上升的速度。收入差距扩大影响了工业化的质量，抑制了居民消费率提升。较大的收入差距将降低居民消费率提高对经济增长的拉动作用，因此提高居民消费率应以缩小收入差距为前提。
最后，本文指出了研宄启示并给出研宄展望。
The growth slowdown occurred in the middle-income stage draw developing countries'attention greatly. Now China's economic growth has dropped signiifcantly, with the biggerdomestic income distribution gap and insuiffcient consumer demand. It's urgently needed toreshape the economic growth impetus. This article mainly launches the research from thefollowing aspects:
First of all, on the basis of existing research, this paper simulated the development ofdeveloping countries, and constructed the theory model to explain the economic growthslowdown caused by insufifcient effective demand. The model explains (1) The unbalancedcapital cost is clearly tilt the economic environment which become the cause of the income gap.(2) Low-income groups concentrate in choosing low quality level products which induces theinsuiffcient effective demand and causes to the lower balance point of the economic growth.(3)The internal mechanism of economic growth in the view of the insuiffcient effective demandrestricting enetrprise innovation.(4) In the condition of open economy due to the technology gapand inequality division of labor, the innovation and the effective demand in developing countriesis insufifcient, which leads to the formation mechanism of the "middle-income trap".
Secondly，this article selects representative middle-income countries and developedco'untries economic growth data to summarize the experience of these countries, and veriyfeffect that the income gap and residents consumption bring to the economic growth process. Theempirical facts show that slowdown will occur both in the middle-income and the high-incomestage. Residents' ifnal consumption rate and gini coeiffcient in the middle-income trap nationimprove the development of agriculture and tertiary industry, and restrict the industrialization. Inthe respect of the inlfuential factors in determining the slowdown, it's found that raising the ratioof consumption and more exports will release the probability of the economic growth ratedecline，but it can increase the likelihood of economic growth equilibrium in the developedcountries. For the middle-income countries, the results show that the gini coeiffcient only restrictthe increase of the GNI per capita growth rate, but they weakened the probability of theslowdown and the stagnation，however according to the result of the representative ifve countries the improvement of the industrialization level will increase the possibility ofslowdown.
Again, this article has empirical test to the relationship of the residents' consumption, theincome gap and economic growth in China. The results show that the income in China is low,and the income gap become wider. With the effect of income inequality, the upgrade rate ofresident's consumption structure is slower than the rising ratio of consumption. Incomeinequality inlfuences the quality of industrialization and suppresses the promotion ofconsumption. The results of the empirical test also show that the large income gap will bringdown the rate of economic growth by weaken the effect of consumption, thus the increase ofresident's consumption rate should be raised on the premise of narrowing of income gap.
Finally, this paper points out the research revelation and the research prospect.
引文
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