人民币汇率、外商直接投资与中国经济结构特征
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摘要
改革开放以来，我国在吸引外商直接投资方面取得了重要的成就，尤其是进入90年代以后，1990年至2010年在华外商直接投资平均每年以8%的速度增长，截止到2010年底，我国累计吸引FDI超过1.12万亿美元。在吸引外资的初期，外商直接投资对我国的经济增长、出口、固定资产投资、就业等方面发挥了重要的作用，但是当历史的车轮走到今天，我国的经济经历了30年的高速发展，2010年我国的国民生产总值达到397983亿元，总量跃居世界第二，在高速发展的同时我们也面临着国内外经济失衡，产业结构亟需调整等问题，在这样的背景下，我们需要的外商直接投资已经不仅仅是用亿、万亿表示的规模或数量的概念，更重要的是吸引可以促进科技创新、提高附加值和增加效率，有助于提高我国产品竞争力，促进产业结构合理发展的外商直接投资。
汇率的变化是近几年来我国理论和政治层面都非常关注的一个问题，虽然汇率的变化取决于多种因素，但由于制造业发展的特性和我国经济结构的特殊性，贸易收支状况一直是我国人民币汇率水平的关键因素。从2003年开始，由于我国的贸易顺差额和外汇储备的不断扩大，欧美一些国家开始向中国施压，要求人民币升值，2005年7月21日，我国实行了第二次重大汇率制度改革，由此开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一揽子货币、有管理的浮动汇率制度，从2005年7月21日至2010年末，除了美国次债危机期间，我国为应对危机采取稳定汇率政策，汇率呈窄幅波动状态外，人民币汇率水平一直是以单边升值的状态出现，这种持续升值的状态对我国的贸易和经济结构产生了重要的影响。
汇率的变化如何影响外商直接投资是国际经济学中一个比较传统的话题，人民币汇率水平对我国外商直接投资影响的问题也有许多学者进行了丰富的研究，这些研究大都是基于总量数据或不同来源地的FDI，分析汇率的变化对总量外商直接投资或不同来源地的外资的影响，得出的结论有“促进论”、“阻碍论”，也有“无关论”，在上述研究的理论和现实背景基础上，本文的研究目的是系统地分析人民币汇率对在华外商直接投资的影响和产生这种影响的机制和渠道，并在此基础上进一步讨论汇率和外商直接投资的相互作用给中国的经济结构带来的重大影响。
本文共有六章：第一章为绪论，介绍本文的选题背景、研究思路和方法；第二章回顾了跨国直接投资理论和汇率变化影响外商直接投资的重要文献；第三章从我国的外商直接投资和人民币汇率水平近几年来的变化情况入手，分析二者的特征及关系，并从实证的角度验证了人民币汇率和外商直接投资的内在关系；第四章在测算了行业层面的实际有效汇率的基础上，分别从国别和行业的角度估算了外商直接投资与汇率的动态关系和弹性系数；第五章以我国的经济结构为出发点，分析了人民币汇率影响我国外商直接投资的形成机制，并进一步探讨了人民币汇率和外商直接投资的相互作用及其对我国贸易顺差、贸易结构、房地产价格和产业结构的影响；第六章为结论、展望和未来的研究方向。
通过理论和经验分析，本文得出以下几点结论：第一、从我国的具体情况来看，人民币升值对我国的外商直接投资在短期内有一个负向调整，但调整的速度较快，长期内起到了促进作用，且从经验分析的角度，这种结果是稳健的。第二、通过构建理论模型证明了名义汇率、实际汇率和汇率预期通过不同的途径对跨国企业的行为产生了影响，利用相关的数据分析表明人民币汇率促进外商直接投资的流入主要是预期在发挥作用。不仅如此，人民币汇率预期也解释了为什么2005年左右，商务部统计的外商直接投资和外汇管理局在国际收支平衡表中的外商在华直接投资流入（贷方）的数据统计差额越来越明显，为什么流入我国的外商直接投资中独资形式的外资大幅增长，为什么呈现出对欧美国家顺差同时对东亚国家或地区逆差的贸易结构。第三、人民币汇率、汇率预期、外商直接投资和房地产价格循环上升，汇率和房地产价格促使外商直接投资进一步流入的同时，汇率和外商直接投资的流入也进一步抬高了房地产价格。第四、流入我国的外商直接投资表现出明显的两头在外的特征，东道国货币升值对进口中间产品和产品出口皆有影响，而且这两种影响的作用是相反的，这在一定程度上解释了为什么人民币升值会促进外商直接投资的流入，但是大量进口中间产品导致了我国增加值率徘徊不前、而且吸引的这种外商直接投资产业关联度较小，溢出效应有限。
China has made a great achievement on attracting foreign directinvestment.From1990to2010, the average annual growth rate of FDI inflow toChina is8%and until the end of2010, Chinahad cumulatively attracting FDI morethan1.12trillion U.S. dollars. In the early stages of attracting foreign investment, FDIin China's has played important role on economic growth, exports, investment infixed assets, employment and so on, however,as the wheels of history was up to today,Chinahas experienced30years of rapid development, Chinese gross national product(GDP) reached39.7983trillion Yuan in2010and became the second largesteconomies in the world, but meanwhile we also faced a lot of problems, such as theimbalances of trade and economy, unreasonable economic structure. As to FDI, whatwe need is to promote business innovation, add industrial value and efficiency, weneed rely on FDI to improve the competitiveness of our product and promote thereasonable development of industrial structure.
In recent years, domestic exchange rate has been very concerned by theoreticaland political level. As we known, changes on exchange rate depends on many factors,but due to the characteristics of the manufacturing industry and the particularity of theChinese economic structure, trade balance of payments is the key factor about RMBexchange rate level. Since2003, as the rapid growing of Chinese trade surplus andforeign exchange reserve, some European and American countries have begun to putpressure on China to revalue its currency. On July21,2005, the reform of a secondmajor exchange rate has been implemented when China reformed the RMB exchangerate regime by moving to a managed float on market supply and demand withreference to a basket of currencies. From July21,2005to2010, except the period ofsubprime mortgage crisis, as one of the package measures to deal with crises, thechange in exchange rate was very little, RMB exchange rate is always in theunilateral appreciation state, which has a significant impact on Chinese economicstructure and exchange rate itself. The starting point of the paper is to analysis the relationship of RMB exchange rate and FDI in China and studies the reasons for theserelationships.
Exchange rate change and foreign direct investment is a more traditional topic inInternational Economics. The impact of RMB exchange rate change on FDI alsoattracted a number of researchers,but these studies are mostly based on the totalamount of data or different sources of FDI, whichnot only can not reflect the changesin the quality of the foreign direct investment, are more likely to cover different typesof Variations in FDI. In the context of above theory and present situation, the focus ofthis paper is not only analysis of the impact of exchange rate changes on the size ofFDI, what’s important, illustrates the way and channel of RMB exchange rate andFDI impact Chinese economic development and economic structure.
The whole text consists of six parts. Chapter1states the background of the topic,research route and method, as well as the innovation points of the text. Chapter2introduces the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and FDI, and a literaturereview is also contained in this chapter. In Chapter3, we firstly state thestatisticallyanalysis of the relationship of RMB and FDI, and then verify the inherent relationshipbetween them by empirical approach. In Chapter4, we bring the issue of the elasticityestimation into according empirical approaches to analysis the dynamic relationshipsand real effect. In Chapter5, from the view of Chinese economic structure, analyzethe formation mechanism of the relationship between them; Chapter6consists of theconclusion of the text, prospect and future research direction.
The conclusions are as follows. First, in all, the appreciation of RMB wouldpromote the inflow of FDI in China, from the view of empirical analysis, the result isrobust. Second, model shows that nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate andexpected exchange rate impact the behavior of multinational corporations throughdifferent channels, and expected exchange rate play increasing role in attracting FDI.Meanwhile, it also can explain why after2005, statistice on FDI of CommerceDepartment and of BOP on FDI (credit) has obvious difference; why the form of soleproprietorship FDI grows substantially; why trade structure is deficit of East Asiancountries and regions at the same time the wealth surplus of Europe and United States.Third, RMB exchange rate, exchange rate expectations, FDI, housing price appears the state of circular rising, that’s mean, real estate prices prompted a further inflow ofFDI, at the same time exchange rates and FDI also further driving up real estateprices.Fourth, appreciation of host country currency would generate two oppositefunctions on the relationship between exchange rate and FDI under the circumstanceof exporting final goods and inporting intermediate goods simultaneously. It bringsup the fact that appreciation of RMB promotes FDI inflowing into China.However,importing intermediate goods would cause added value rate in the slugglish state andreduces the industrial relevance effect.
汇率的变化是近几年来我国理论和政治层面都非常关注的一个问题，虽然汇率的变化取决于多种因素，但由于制造业发展的特性和我国经济结构的特殊性，贸易收支状况一直是我国人民币汇率水平的关键因素。从2003年开始，由于我国的贸易顺差额和外汇储备的不断扩大，欧美一些国家开始向中国施压，要求人民币升值，2005年7月21日，我国实行了第二次重大汇率制度改革，由此开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一揽子货币、有管理的浮动汇率制度，从2005年7月21日至2010年末，除了美国次债危机期间，我国为应对危机采取稳定汇率政策，汇率呈窄幅波动状态外，人民币汇率水平一直是以单边升值的状态出现，这种持续升值的状态对我国的贸易和经济结构产生了重要的影响。
汇率的变化如何影响外商直接投资是国际经济学中一个比较传统的话题，人民币汇率水平对我国外商直接投资影响的问题也有许多学者进行了丰富的研究，这些研究大都是基于总量数据或不同来源地的FDI，分析汇率的变化对总量外商直接投资或不同来源地的外资的影响，得出的结论有“促进论”、“阻碍论”，也有“无关论”，在上述研究的理论和现实背景基础上，本文的研究目的是系统地分析人民币汇率对在华外商直接投资的影响和产生这种影响的机制和渠道，并在此基础上进一步讨论汇率和外商直接投资的相互作用给中国的经济结构带来的重大影响。
本文共有六章：第一章为绪论，介绍本文的选题背景、研究思路和方法；第二章回顾了跨国直接投资理论和汇率变化影响外商直接投资的重要文献；第三章从我国的外商直接投资和人民币汇率水平近几年来的变化情况入手，分析二者的特征及关系，并从实证的角度验证了人民币汇率和外商直接投资的内在关系；第四章在测算了行业层面的实际有效汇率的基础上，分别从国别和行业的角度估算了外商直接投资与汇率的动态关系和弹性系数；第五章以我国的经济结构为出发点，分析了人民币汇率影响我国外商直接投资的形成机制，并进一步探讨了人民币汇率和外商直接投资的相互作用及其对我国贸易顺差、贸易结构、房地产价格和产业结构的影响；第六章为结论、展望和未来的研究方向。
通过理论和经验分析，本文得出以下几点结论：第一、从我国的具体情况来看，人民币升值对我国的外商直接投资在短期内有一个负向调整，但调整的速度较快，长期内起到了促进作用，且从经验分析的角度，这种结果是稳健的。第二、通过构建理论模型证明了名义汇率、实际汇率和汇率预期通过不同的途径对跨国企业的行为产生了影响，利用相关的数据分析表明人民币汇率促进外商直接投资的流入主要是预期在发挥作用。不仅如此，人民币汇率预期也解释了为什么2005年左右，商务部统计的外商直接投资和外汇管理局在国际收支平衡表中的外商在华直接投资流入（贷方）的数据统计差额越来越明显，为什么流入我国的外商直接投资中独资形式的外资大幅增长，为什么呈现出对欧美国家顺差同时对东亚国家或地区逆差的贸易结构。第三、人民币汇率、汇率预期、外商直接投资和房地产价格循环上升，汇率和房地产价格促使外商直接投资进一步流入的同时，汇率和外商直接投资的流入也进一步抬高了房地产价格。第四、流入我国的外商直接投资表现出明显的两头在外的特征，东道国货币升值对进口中间产品和产品出口皆有影响，而且这两种影响的作用是相反的，这在一定程度上解释了为什么人民币升值会促进外商直接投资的流入，但是大量进口中间产品导致了我国增加值率徘徊不前、而且吸引的这种外商直接投资产业关联度较小，溢出效应有限。
China has made a great achievement on attracting foreign directinvestment.From1990to2010, the average annual growth rate of FDI inflow toChina is8%and until the end of2010, Chinahad cumulatively attracting FDI morethan1.12trillion U.S. dollars. In the early stages of attracting foreign investment, FDIin China's has played important role on economic growth, exports, investment infixed assets, employment and so on, however,as the wheels of history was up to today,Chinahas experienced30years of rapid development, Chinese gross national product(GDP) reached39.7983trillion Yuan in2010and became the second largesteconomies in the world, but meanwhile we also faced a lot of problems, such as theimbalances of trade and economy, unreasonable economic structure. As to FDI, whatwe need is to promote business innovation, add industrial value and efficiency, weneed rely on FDI to improve the competitiveness of our product and promote thereasonable development of industrial structure.
In recent years, domestic exchange rate has been very concerned by theoreticaland political level. As we known, changes on exchange rate depends on many factors,but due to the characteristics of the manufacturing industry and the particularity of theChinese economic structure, trade balance of payments is the key factor about RMBexchange rate level. Since2003, as the rapid growing of Chinese trade surplus andforeign exchange reserve, some European and American countries have begun to putpressure on China to revalue its currency. On July21,2005, the reform of a secondmajor exchange rate has been implemented when China reformed the RMB exchangerate regime by moving to a managed float on market supply and demand withreference to a basket of currencies. From July21,2005to2010, except the period ofsubprime mortgage crisis, as one of the package measures to deal with crises, thechange in exchange rate was very little, RMB exchange rate is always in theunilateral appreciation state, which has a significant impact on Chinese economicstructure and exchange rate itself. The starting point of the paper is to analysis the relationship of RMB exchange rate and FDI in China and studies the reasons for theserelationships.
Exchange rate change and foreign direct investment is a more traditional topic inInternational Economics. The impact of RMB exchange rate change on FDI alsoattracted a number of researchers,but these studies are mostly based on the totalamount of data or different sources of FDI, whichnot only can not reflect the changesin the quality of the foreign direct investment, are more likely to cover different typesof Variations in FDI. In the context of above theory and present situation, the focus ofthis paper is not only analysis of the impact of exchange rate changes on the size ofFDI, what’s important, illustrates the way and channel of RMB exchange rate andFDI impact Chinese economic development and economic structure.
The whole text consists of six parts. Chapter1states the background of the topic,research route and method, as well as the innovation points of the text. Chapter2introduces the theoretical framework of the exchange rate and FDI, and a literaturereview is also contained in this chapter. In Chapter3, we firstly state thestatisticallyanalysis of the relationship of RMB and FDI, and then verify the inherent relationshipbetween them by empirical approach. In Chapter4, we bring the issue of the elasticityestimation into according empirical approaches to analysis the dynamic relationshipsand real effect. In Chapter5, from the view of Chinese economic structure, analyzethe formation mechanism of the relationship between them; Chapter6consists of theconclusion of the text, prospect and future research direction.
The conclusions are as follows. First, in all, the appreciation of RMB wouldpromote the inflow of FDI in China, from the view of empirical analysis, the result isrobust. Second, model shows that nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate andexpected exchange rate impact the behavior of multinational corporations throughdifferent channels, and expected exchange rate play increasing role in attracting FDI.Meanwhile, it also can explain why after2005, statistice on FDI of CommerceDepartment and of BOP on FDI (credit) has obvious difference; why the form of soleproprietorship FDI grows substantially; why trade structure is deficit of East Asiancountries and regions at the same time the wealth surplus of Europe and United States.Third, RMB exchange rate, exchange rate expectations, FDI, housing price appears the state of circular rising, that’s mean, real estate prices prompted a further inflow ofFDI, at the same time exchange rates and FDI also further driving up real estateprices.Fourth, appreciation of host country currency would generate two oppositefunctions on the relationship between exchange rate and FDI under the circumstanceof exporting final goods and inporting intermediate goods simultaneously. It bringsup the fact that appreciation of RMB promotes FDI inflowing into China.However,importing intermediate goods would cause added value rate in the slugglish state andreduces the industrial relevance effect.
引文
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