工程项目多要素绩效评价模型与方法研究
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摘要
为开展项目多要素绩效评价，本研究构建起项目多要素绩效评价模型，实现项目多个要素的绩效分析，提升项目绩效分析的科学性、系统性和准确性。另外，本研究还针对成本、时间、范围约束的不同类型项目进行具体分析，提出更为科学有效的绩效测量方法。
在研究项目挣值管理理论和文献的基础上，本研究深入分析现有挣值管理方法在成本、时间以及其他要素方面存在的问题。分析结果表明，造成现有挣值管理方法不足和缺陷的主要原因有两个方面：一是开发者和目前的使用者都默认将项目的多要素绩效分析简化为成本和时间两要素绩效分析，从而造成通过现有挣值管理方法无法了解和掌握项目其他要素的绩效情况；二是对项目要素间关系研究不足，通过现有项目挣值管理系统无法清晰区分出各要素间的相互影响，导致在项目多要素绩效集成评价中缺乏基本的支撑。
在借鉴现有项目挣值管理原理并深入分析项目诸要素关系的基础上，引入统计学多因素综合指数分析方法，对现有项目挣值管理方法改进和发展，构建起项目多要素绩效评价模型。在理论上实现了项目成本、工期、范围、价格等要素的集成分析。针对成本要素，本研究分析了成本约束型的项目绩效评价特征以及对该类项目产生影响的关键因素，并将其划分为可控因素和不可控因素。利用项目多要素绩效评价模型的绩效指数构建起可控要素综合成本偏差指数方程，建立了多要素间的平衡协调关系。针对时间要素，本研究分析了时间约束型的项目绩效评价特征，将项目区分为范围确定的时间约束型项目和范围不确定的时间约束型项目。运用项目多要素绩效评价模型对时间约束型项目进行分析，从而便捷有效的区分出由于范围变化引起的时间绩效差异。针对范围要素，本研究提出了范围绩效评价方法。基于特定技术条件下的项目资源配置关系原理，设置“资源计划使用量”、“资源实际使用量”、“资源计划使用比例”、“资源实际使用比例”等四个基本变量和“计划配置比例下的实际资源投入量”中间变量。通过变量间关系可以有效度量项目范围绩效水平。
本研究主要创新点如下：
（一）构建了项目多要素绩效评价模型
本研究从深入研究项目挣值管理理论和方法入手，分析其引入中间变量进行绩效差异分析的手段，揭示其应用社会统计学指数体系两因素综合指数分析法的基本原理。进而通过统计学多因素综合指数分析法与项目要素分步集成优先序列的耦合，构建起项目多要素绩效评价模型，实现单个项目要素的剥离与分析，从而能够从解析和几何两个角度实现绩效分析。这一模型的构建，为在现有项目挣值管理体系的基础上直观有效的开展项目多要素绩效分析打开了思路。
（二）建立了成本约束型的项目绩效分析模型和方法
对成本约束型项目的基本特点和影响绩效的关键因素进行分析，根据项目多要素绩效评价模型进行成本预测和管理对策分析。将成本管理要素进一步区分为可控影响因素和不可控影响因素，本文综合范围、时间、成本等可控要素绩效指数构建出可控要素综合成本偏差指数方程，进而提出了利用可控要素综合成本偏差指数方程对项目要素成本进行等比控制和基于优先序列开展重点控制的管理策略。
（三）建立了时间约束型的项目绩效分析模型和方法
根据本文提出的项目多要素绩效评价模型，将时间约束型项目进一步细分为范围确定的时间约束型项目和范围不定的时间约束型项目。采用基于项目关键路径的挣得时间方法分别对范围确定型和不确定型项目进行绩效分析，针对现有项目挣值管理方法未明确讨论的范围不确定型项目，利用项目多要素绩效评价模型从绩效差异中区分出范围增减引起的进度差异，使得项目进度绩效分析更加准确。
（四）建立了范围约束型的项目绩效分析模型和方法
基于项目资源要素配置原理，根据项目技术水平不变的条件下在特定时间段内项目不同资源消耗量和消耗比例相对确定的情况，设计了“资源的计划使用配置比例”、“资源的实际使用配置比例”和“计划配置比率下的实际资源投入量”等指标，其中“计划配置比率下的实际资源投入量”这一中间变量构成了项目范围挣值的概念。通过项目范围挣值可以较好地度量项目范围绩效差异情况，不但能够满足范围指标、成本指标以及工期指标的交叉计算需要，可以很好地实现与现有挣值管理方法的衔接，而且由于使用配置比例进行差异分析可以排除不可控因素，更加准确地度量项目范围绩效情况。
In order to achieve project multi-factors performance evaluation, constructed aproject performance evaluation model of multi-factors, realized the analysis forproject performance of multi-factors, and enhanced the scientificalness,systematization and accuracy of project performance analysis. In addition, we madespecific analysis in terms of different types of projects for the constraints of cost,time and scope, and put forward a set of more scientific and effective performancemeasurement methods.
Research project earned value management theory based on literatures, in-depthanalysis of the problems of the existing Earned Value Management in terms of cost,time, and other factors. The analysis results show that, there are two main reasons forresulting in the existing shortcomings and deficiencies of earned value managementapproach for two main reasons. First of all, the developers and users admit thatsimplifying multi-factor performance of the project into the performance of the twoelements of cost and time. resulting in not be able to understand and master the otherelements of the project performance through the existing earned Value Management;the second is unable to clearly distinguish the relationship between the factorsthrough using the existing earned value method because of the inadequate researchabout the relationship between project factors, which leads to a lack of basic supportin the process of integrated evaluation of the project multi-factor performance.
Based on drawing on the existing earned value management principle andin-depth analysis of the relationship between factors, the author introduced statisticalmulti-factors index method, improved and developed the existing project earnedvalue method, and constructed the performance evaluation model for projectmulti-factors, achieved the integration analysis for project cost, schedule, scope andprice. In the aspect of cost, the author has done the research on the characteristics ofcost-constrained projects and the key factors which affect this kind of project, anddivided these key factors into controllable factors and uncontrollable factors. The comprehensive cost deviation index equation is built through using the performanceindex of project performance evaluation of multi-factors, and established a balancedand harmonious relationship between the multi-factors. In the aspect of time element,this dissertation analyzed the characteristics of the time-constrained project, anddivided project into scope determined time-constrained project and scopeundetermined time-constrained project. Using project multi-factors performanceevaluation model to analyze time-constrained project, thus identify the timeperformance deviation which caused by scope change. In the aspect of scope element,this dissertation provided scope evaluation method. Based on the specific conditionsof project resources configuration relationship, set up four basic variables, such asresource planning usage, resource actual usage, planning usage proportion ofresource, actual usage proportion of resource, and also set up a intermediatevariables of actual amount of resource investment. Through considering therelationship between variables, we can measure the performance level of projectscope effectively.
The main innovation points of this dissertation are as follows:
Firstly, the author has done the research and constructed the projectmulti-factors performance evaluation model. This dissertation based on projectearned value management theory and method, and introduced intermediate variableto analyze performance deviation, revealed the basic principle of two factors indexanalysis method in its application of social statistics index system. And throughusing statistics multi-factors index analysis and the coupling of priority sequence ofproject factor step by step integration, constructed the evaluation model of projectmulti-factors, avoided analyzing factor from single factor perspective, hence we cananalyze performance from two angels of parsing and geometric. The construction ofthis model for the Earned Value Management System in an existing project on thebasis of intuitive and effective to carry out the project multi-factors performanceanalysis opened up the idea.
Secondly, the author has done the research and constructed the performanceevaluation model for cost-constrained project. This dissertation analyzed the basiccharacteristics of cost-constrained project and the key factors which affect performance, and carry out cost estimate and management strategies analysisthrough using project multi-factors performance evaluation model. Then, the authordivided cost management elements into controllable influencing factors anduncontrollable influencing factors, through integrating controllable elements ofscope, schedule and cost, constructed the controllable elements comprehensive costdeviation index equation, and thus put forward through using controllable elementscomprehensive cost deviation index equation to geometric proportion control projectelements costs and implement management strategy of critical control point based onthe priority sequence.
Thirdly, the author has done the research and constructed the performanceevaluation model for time-constrained project. In this thesis, the author used earnedvalue time method based on project key path to analyze the performance of scopedetermined and scope undetermined, facing unspecified discussing scopeundetermined project of the existing project earned value method, using projectmulti-factors performance evaluation model to separate schedule deviation whichcaused by scope change, making project schedule performance analysis moreaccurate.
Fourthly, the author has done the research and constructed the performanceevaluation model for scope-sonstrained project. Some basic variables were designedin this thesis, such as the Resources Ration for Schedul, the Resources Ratio forActual Performace and the Actual Resources Under Schedule Ratio, the variable ofthe Actual Resources Under Schedule Ratio which constituted the concept of projectscope earned value. We can measure project scope performance deviation effectivelythrough using project scope earned value, not only can meet the cross-computingneeds of scope indicators, cost indicators and schedule indicators, and also canachieve a good convergence with the traditional earned value management method,and can eliminate uncontrollable factors and measure project scope performancemore accurate through using configuration ratio to analyze deviation.
在研究项目挣值管理理论和文献的基础上，本研究深入分析现有挣值管理方法在成本、时间以及其他要素方面存在的问题。分析结果表明，造成现有挣值管理方法不足和缺陷的主要原因有两个方面：一是开发者和目前的使用者都默认将项目的多要素绩效分析简化为成本和时间两要素绩效分析，从而造成通过现有挣值管理方法无法了解和掌握项目其他要素的绩效情况；二是对项目要素间关系研究不足，通过现有项目挣值管理系统无法清晰区分出各要素间的相互影响，导致在项目多要素绩效集成评价中缺乏基本的支撑。
在借鉴现有项目挣值管理原理并深入分析项目诸要素关系的基础上，引入统计学多因素综合指数分析方法，对现有项目挣值管理方法改进和发展，构建起项目多要素绩效评价模型。在理论上实现了项目成本、工期、范围、价格等要素的集成分析。针对成本要素，本研究分析了成本约束型的项目绩效评价特征以及对该类项目产生影响的关键因素，并将其划分为可控因素和不可控因素。利用项目多要素绩效评价模型的绩效指数构建起可控要素综合成本偏差指数方程，建立了多要素间的平衡协调关系。针对时间要素，本研究分析了时间约束型的项目绩效评价特征，将项目区分为范围确定的时间约束型项目和范围不确定的时间约束型项目。运用项目多要素绩效评价模型对时间约束型项目进行分析，从而便捷有效的区分出由于范围变化引起的时间绩效差异。针对范围要素，本研究提出了范围绩效评价方法。基于特定技术条件下的项目资源配置关系原理，设置“资源计划使用量”、“资源实际使用量”、“资源计划使用比例”、“资源实际使用比例”等四个基本变量和“计划配置比例下的实际资源投入量”中间变量。通过变量间关系可以有效度量项目范围绩效水平。
本研究主要创新点如下：
（一）构建了项目多要素绩效评价模型
本研究从深入研究项目挣值管理理论和方法入手，分析其引入中间变量进行绩效差异分析的手段，揭示其应用社会统计学指数体系两因素综合指数分析法的基本原理。进而通过统计学多因素综合指数分析法与项目要素分步集成优先序列的耦合，构建起项目多要素绩效评价模型，实现单个项目要素的剥离与分析，从而能够从解析和几何两个角度实现绩效分析。这一模型的构建，为在现有项目挣值管理体系的基础上直观有效的开展项目多要素绩效分析打开了思路。
（二）建立了成本约束型的项目绩效分析模型和方法
对成本约束型项目的基本特点和影响绩效的关键因素进行分析，根据项目多要素绩效评价模型进行成本预测和管理对策分析。将成本管理要素进一步区分为可控影响因素和不可控影响因素，本文综合范围、时间、成本等可控要素绩效指数构建出可控要素综合成本偏差指数方程，进而提出了利用可控要素综合成本偏差指数方程对项目要素成本进行等比控制和基于优先序列开展重点控制的管理策略。
（三）建立了时间约束型的项目绩效分析模型和方法
根据本文提出的项目多要素绩效评价模型，将时间约束型项目进一步细分为范围确定的时间约束型项目和范围不定的时间约束型项目。采用基于项目关键路径的挣得时间方法分别对范围确定型和不确定型项目进行绩效分析，针对现有项目挣值管理方法未明确讨论的范围不确定型项目，利用项目多要素绩效评价模型从绩效差异中区分出范围增减引起的进度差异，使得项目进度绩效分析更加准确。
（四）建立了范围约束型的项目绩效分析模型和方法
基于项目资源要素配置原理，根据项目技术水平不变的条件下在特定时间段内项目不同资源消耗量和消耗比例相对确定的情况，设计了“资源的计划使用配置比例”、“资源的实际使用配置比例”和“计划配置比率下的实际资源投入量”等指标，其中“计划配置比率下的实际资源投入量”这一中间变量构成了项目范围挣值的概念。通过项目范围挣值可以较好地度量项目范围绩效差异情况，不但能够满足范围指标、成本指标以及工期指标的交叉计算需要，可以很好地实现与现有挣值管理方法的衔接，而且由于使用配置比例进行差异分析可以排除不可控因素，更加准确地度量项目范围绩效情况。
In order to achieve project multi-factors performance evaluation, constructed aproject performance evaluation model of multi-factors, realized the analysis forproject performance of multi-factors, and enhanced the scientificalness,systematization and accuracy of project performance analysis. In addition, we madespecific analysis in terms of different types of projects for the constraints of cost,time and scope, and put forward a set of more scientific and effective performancemeasurement methods.
Research project earned value management theory based on literatures, in-depthanalysis of the problems of the existing Earned Value Management in terms of cost,time, and other factors. The analysis results show that, there are two main reasons forresulting in the existing shortcomings and deficiencies of earned value managementapproach for two main reasons. First of all, the developers and users admit thatsimplifying multi-factor performance of the project into the performance of the twoelements of cost and time. resulting in not be able to understand and master the otherelements of the project performance through the existing earned Value Management;the second is unable to clearly distinguish the relationship between the factorsthrough using the existing earned value method because of the inadequate researchabout the relationship between project factors, which leads to a lack of basic supportin the process of integrated evaluation of the project multi-factor performance.
Based on drawing on the existing earned value management principle andin-depth analysis of the relationship between factors, the author introduced statisticalmulti-factors index method, improved and developed the existing project earnedvalue method, and constructed the performance evaluation model for projectmulti-factors, achieved the integration analysis for project cost, schedule, scope andprice. In the aspect of cost, the author has done the research on the characteristics ofcost-constrained projects and the key factors which affect this kind of project, anddivided these key factors into controllable factors and uncontrollable factors. The comprehensive cost deviation index equation is built through using the performanceindex of project performance evaluation of multi-factors, and established a balancedand harmonious relationship between the multi-factors. In the aspect of time element,this dissertation analyzed the characteristics of the time-constrained project, anddivided project into scope determined time-constrained project and scopeundetermined time-constrained project. Using project multi-factors performanceevaluation model to analyze time-constrained project, thus identify the timeperformance deviation which caused by scope change. In the aspect of scope element,this dissertation provided scope evaluation method. Based on the specific conditionsof project resources configuration relationship, set up four basic variables, such asresource planning usage, resource actual usage, planning usage proportion ofresource, actual usage proportion of resource, and also set up a intermediatevariables of actual amount of resource investment. Through considering therelationship between variables, we can measure the performance level of projectscope effectively.
The main innovation points of this dissertation are as follows:
Firstly, the author has done the research and constructed the projectmulti-factors performance evaluation model. This dissertation based on projectearned value management theory and method, and introduced intermediate variableto analyze performance deviation, revealed the basic principle of two factors indexanalysis method in its application of social statistics index system. And throughusing statistics multi-factors index analysis and the coupling of priority sequence ofproject factor step by step integration, constructed the evaluation model of projectmulti-factors, avoided analyzing factor from single factor perspective, hence we cananalyze performance from two angels of parsing and geometric. The construction ofthis model for the Earned Value Management System in an existing project on thebasis of intuitive and effective to carry out the project multi-factors performanceanalysis opened up the idea.
Secondly, the author has done the research and constructed the performanceevaluation model for cost-constrained project. This dissertation analyzed the basiccharacteristics of cost-constrained project and the key factors which affect performance, and carry out cost estimate and management strategies analysisthrough using project multi-factors performance evaluation model. Then, the authordivided cost management elements into controllable influencing factors anduncontrollable influencing factors, through integrating controllable elements ofscope, schedule and cost, constructed the controllable elements comprehensive costdeviation index equation, and thus put forward through using controllable elementscomprehensive cost deviation index equation to geometric proportion control projectelements costs and implement management strategy of critical control point based onthe priority sequence.
Thirdly, the author has done the research and constructed the performanceevaluation model for time-constrained project. In this thesis, the author used earnedvalue time method based on project key path to analyze the performance of scopedetermined and scope undetermined, facing unspecified discussing scopeundetermined project of the existing project earned value method, using projectmulti-factors performance evaluation model to separate schedule deviation whichcaused by scope change, making project schedule performance analysis moreaccurate.
Fourthly, the author has done the research and constructed the performanceevaluation model for scope-sonstrained project. Some basic variables were designedin this thesis, such as the Resources Ration for Schedul, the Resources Ratio forActual Performace and the Actual Resources Under Schedule Ratio, the variable ofthe Actual Resources Under Schedule Ratio which constituted the concept of projectscope earned value. We can measure project scope performance deviation effectivelythrough using project scope earned value, not only can meet the cross-computingneeds of scope indicators, cost indicators and schedule indicators, and also canachieve a good convergence with the traditional earned value management method,and can eliminate uncontrollable factors and measure project scope performancemore accurate through using configuration ratio to analyze deviation.
引文
[1]（美）项目管理协会著.项目管理知识体系指南（第四版）[M].王勇,张斌译.北京:电子工业出版社,2009:60
[1]戚安邦,张连营主编.项目管理概论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008:200
[2]（美）项目管理协会著.项目管理知识体系指南（第四版）[M].王勇,张斌译.北京:电子工业出版社,2009:60
[1]（美）项目管理协会著.项目管理知识体系指南（第四版）[M].王勇,张斌译.北京:电子工业出版社,2009:60
[2]国际项目管理协会网站.2009年度研究奖获得者戚安邦教授及其团队[EB/OL].[2012-2-15]http://ipma.ch/awards/individual-awards/ipma-research-award-winners.html.
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