有效资本积累与跨越“中等收入陷阱”
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摘要
改革开放30多年，我国经济取得了长足的发展，经济总量越居世界第二位，在这过程中资本形成一直是经济增长的核心。但近年来经济增长中呈现出“资产价格上涨”、“通货膨胀”、“产能过剩”等特征，资本积累的增长效应在下滑。部分经济学者质疑“中国增长奇迹”能否延续，认为我国存在进入“中等收入陷阱”的挑战。
本文在经济增长理论框架下对“中等收陷阱”问题进行研究，研究的主要目的在于回答以下问题：（1）什么是“中等收入陷阱”？（2）我国是否面临进入“中等收入陷阱”的风险？（3）导致我国进入“中等收入陷阱”的经济运行机制是什么？（4）我国如何跨域“中等收入陷阱”？上述四个问题构成了本论文的四部分核心内容。
第一部分，该部分首先梳理总结了新古典经济增长理论的三个理论模型，Solow-Swan模型、Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型和Diamond模型，对三个理论模型的资本积累动态过程、资本积累动态效率的判别条件等进行总结。在Solow-Swan模型中，储蓄率是外生的，储蓄率超过经济最优增长所要求的储蓄率即可出现资本积累动态无效的情况；在Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型中，储蓄率内生的，家庭消费最大化的选择决定了资本存量收敛于修正黄金律资本存量水平，因此不会出现资本积累动态无效的情况；在Diamond模型中，由于假设存在人口新老交替，各代人最优选择决定的资本存量可能超过黄金律资本存量，即存在资本积累动态无效的情况。然后，笔者在上述新古典经济理论框架下对“中等收入陷阱”的特征进行分析，并对其经济内涵进行了阐释，即“在某种经济运行机制的约束下，经济剩余不能转化为有效资本，导致一个国家陷入资本存量小于平衡增长路径的经济发展停滞状态”。
第二部分，该部分笔者对资本积累动态效率问题的相关研究进行了综述，归纳总结了判别资本积累动态效率的三种方法：资本边际生产率法、AMSZ准则及其等价命题、最优储蓄率法。利用三种方法对我国的资本积累动态效率进行判别的结论是：我国资本存量小于黄金率水平、小于平衡增长路径水平。同时我国人均资本存量也远小于发达资本主义国家水平，因此我国资本积累的空间还很大。然后，笔者利用采用增长率推算法、HP滤波法、生产函数法计算了历年生产能力利用率，揭示了投资浪费导致生产能力利用下滑是我国进入中等收陷阱的主要风险，即经济剩余没有形成有效的资本积累，而是在投资浪费中被消耗，使经济的资本存量维持在既定的水平。笔者根据“中等收入陷阱”均衡条件推算我国将在2014年进入“中等收入陷阱”。此外，笔者还对“中等收入陷阱”的类型进行了分析，指出我国面临“中等收入陷阱”的首要风险是政府宏观调控政策的长期化，其次是资本外流的风险。
第三部分，该部分首先计算了通货膨胀对企业税收负担的影响，计算结果显示2010年因通货膨胀因素造成的固定资产和存货价值重估收益，致使国家多收税6509.41亿元，占GDP比重的1.62%。同时，论文还计算了采掘业价格冲击对资本利润率的影响，计算结果显示，因采掘业产品价格上涨使采掘行业获得超额收益2.6万亿元，占GDP的6.51%。我国资本积累停滞的经济运行机制是：通货膨胀和采掘业价格冲击造成了利润率的扭曲、资本利润率下滑，资本利润率下滑导致资本积累停滞。其次，文章还分析了在利润扭曲条件下凯恩斯主义政策失效的原因。其作用机制如下：凯恩斯主义扩张经济政策导致利润扭曲加剧，进而导致资本的收益率水平进一步恶化，不仅不能刺激投资的增长反而会导致有效资本存量的减少。
第四部分，该部分对上世纪80年代美国的税收政策和财政政策进行分析，认为美国这一时期经济政策则的核心思想是：恢复资本的边际收益率水平，让经济回到资本积累的轨道上来。其经济政策的具体措施是：（1）税收政策。一方面让能够获取租金收益的部门多负担税收，另一方面通过减税恢复资本品部门的边际收益水平。通过减税和增税的双向调整，刺激私人部门的资本积累，同时力求财政收支平衡。（2）财政政策。通过预算平衡法案限制财政支出的膨胀，减少联邦政府支出对于经济资源的过多占用。在借鉴美国经验的基础上，笔者提出了深化资源性产品价格和环保收费改革，优化税制结构、重新分摊税收负担，推进预算管理体制改革等三方面的政策建议。
It is more than thirty years since1978from which our country began to reformand open up. China’s economy has made considerable development, and now ChineseGDP ranks second in the world. In the whole period capital formation has played afirst important role for economic growth. But in recent years, economy appearsphenomenon of Asset bubble, Inflation and overcapacity. The growth effect of capitalaccumulation is declining. Some economists begin to question that whether “Chinesegrowth miracle” could continue, and think of that China is face with “middle incometrap”.
In the paper, I discuss the problem of “middle income trap” under the frameworkof theory of economic growth. The purpose of my research is trying to answer thequestions as following:(1) what is “middle income trap”.(2) Is it possible for Chinaof entering to “middle income trap”.(3) Which kind of economic operationmechanism causes china entering to “middle income trap”.(4)How does Chinaoverstep “middle income trap”. The four questions above constitute the core contentof the four pants of the paper.
In the first part, I summarized three theoretical models of the neoclassical theoryof economic growth: the Solow-Swan model, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, andthe Diamond model. Then I discussed the process of capital accumulation anddiscrimination conditions of dynamic efficiency in the three models. In theSolow-Swan model, the savings rate is exogenous, and the economy is dynamicinefficiency when savings rate exceeds the optimum savings rate which the economicoptimum growth is required. In Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, the savings rate isendogenous, and the choice of maximization of consumption made by householdresults that capital stock convergence to a point below the Golden Rule level whichmeans there is no dynamic efficiency in Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model. In theDiamond model, the economy is populated by over-lapping generations ofentrepreneurs who live for two periods. The capital stocks depended on decision ofeach generation is likely to exceed the Golden Rule capital stock which meansdynamic inefficiency. On this basis, I analyzed the features of "middle income trap",and explains its economic connotation, it is that”in a certain constraints of economicoperation mechanism, the economic surplus can’t be converted for the effective capital stocks, leading a country into economic development stagnation which thecapital stock is less than the balanced growth path level”.
In the second part, I reviewed literature related to capital accumulation dynamicefficiency, and summed up three ways to distinguish capital accumulation dynamicefficiency: the return on capital method, the equivalent proposition of AMSZ criterion,the optimal savings rate method. The paper draws conclusions about capitalaccumulation dynamic efficiency by using the three methods that: China's capitalstock is less than the level of gold rate less than the balanced growth path level.Meanwhile, China's per capita capital stock is far less than the developed capitalistcountries. This means China has huge space for capital accumulation. Then, Icalculate the capacity utilization of the calendar year by three methods which includethe growth rate projection method, the HP filter method and the production functionmethod. Declining capacity utilization means that the low conversion rate ofinvestment into capital is limiting effective capital formation. Economic surplus iswasted by inefficient investment, and then the capital stock of the economy maintainscertain level. This will lead our country into "middle income trap" in2014. In addition,I analyzed different types of “middle income trap”, and pointed out that the primaryrisk of facing "middle income trap" is the government's macro-control policies, andthat the second is the risk of capital outflows.
In the third part, this paper firstly calculated impact of inflation on corporate tax.The calculated results show that inflation results the revaluation of fixed assets andinventory and additional taxation of6509.41billion Yuan in2010, accounting forGDP1.62%. The same time, the paper also calculates excess returns which extractiveindustries gain by raising the price shocks of extractive industries. The excess returnsare2.6trillion Yuan, accounting for6.51percent of GDP. Economic operationmechanism leading to stagnant of capital accumulation is that: inflation and the priceimpact of extractive industries distort margin and deteriorate return on capital, andlower margin leads to stagnant of capital accumulation. Secondly, the article alsoanalyzes the reason for the failure of Keynesian policies in condition of margindistortion. The mechanism is that: Keynesian economic policies lead to inflationwhich exacerbate margin distortion, and return on capital become lower. SoKeynesian economic policies will not only fail to stimulate the growth of investment,but also limiting effective capital accumulation.
In the fourth part, I review U.S. tax policy and fiscal policy in1980s, and the core idea of the U.S. economic policy during that period is: restoring the level of themarginal rate of return of capital, and taking the economy back to the capitalaccumulation. The economic policy mainly includes:(1) Tax policy. On one handthe enterprises which could earn excess profits take more taxes, and on the other handtax cutting restore the level of the marginal rate of return of capital. The taxationchange is in two different directions which encourages private investment and try tomaintain a balanced budget.(2) Fiscal policy. The introduction of the balanced budgetbill limit the expansion of fiscal expenditure, and reducing federal governmentspending means that the private sector can obtain more economic resources. Based onAmerican experience, the paper gives policy recommendations which include threeparts: reforming the formation mechanism of resource price and environmentalprotection charges; improve the tax structure, and redistribute the tax burden; promotethe reform of the budget system.
本文在经济增长理论框架下对“中等收陷阱”问题进行研究，研究的主要目的在于回答以下问题：（1）什么是“中等收入陷阱”？（2）我国是否面临进入“中等收入陷阱”的风险？（3）导致我国进入“中等收入陷阱”的经济运行机制是什么？（4）我国如何跨域“中等收入陷阱”？上述四个问题构成了本论文的四部分核心内容。
第一部分，该部分首先梳理总结了新古典经济增长理论的三个理论模型，Solow-Swan模型、Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型和Diamond模型，对三个理论模型的资本积累动态过程、资本积累动态效率的判别条件等进行总结。在Solow-Swan模型中，储蓄率是外生的，储蓄率超过经济最优增长所要求的储蓄率即可出现资本积累动态无效的情况；在Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型中，储蓄率内生的，家庭消费最大化的选择决定了资本存量收敛于修正黄金律资本存量水平，因此不会出现资本积累动态无效的情况；在Diamond模型中，由于假设存在人口新老交替，各代人最优选择决定的资本存量可能超过黄金律资本存量，即存在资本积累动态无效的情况。然后，笔者在上述新古典经济理论框架下对“中等收入陷阱”的特征进行分析，并对其经济内涵进行了阐释，即“在某种经济运行机制的约束下，经济剩余不能转化为有效资本，导致一个国家陷入资本存量小于平衡增长路径的经济发展停滞状态”。
第二部分，该部分笔者对资本积累动态效率问题的相关研究进行了综述，归纳总结了判别资本积累动态效率的三种方法：资本边际生产率法、AMSZ准则及其等价命题、最优储蓄率法。利用三种方法对我国的资本积累动态效率进行判别的结论是：我国资本存量小于黄金率水平、小于平衡增长路径水平。同时我国人均资本存量也远小于发达资本主义国家水平，因此我国资本积累的空间还很大。然后，笔者利用采用增长率推算法、HP滤波法、生产函数法计算了历年生产能力利用率，揭示了投资浪费导致生产能力利用下滑是我国进入中等收陷阱的主要风险，即经济剩余没有形成有效的资本积累，而是在投资浪费中被消耗，使经济的资本存量维持在既定的水平。笔者根据“中等收入陷阱”均衡条件推算我国将在2014年进入“中等收入陷阱”。此外，笔者还对“中等收入陷阱”的类型进行了分析，指出我国面临“中等收入陷阱”的首要风险是政府宏观调控政策的长期化，其次是资本外流的风险。
第三部分，该部分首先计算了通货膨胀对企业税收负担的影响，计算结果显示2010年因通货膨胀因素造成的固定资产和存货价值重估收益，致使国家多收税6509.41亿元，占GDP比重的1.62%。同时，论文还计算了采掘业价格冲击对资本利润率的影响，计算结果显示，因采掘业产品价格上涨使采掘行业获得超额收益2.6万亿元，占GDP的6.51%。我国资本积累停滞的经济运行机制是：通货膨胀和采掘业价格冲击造成了利润率的扭曲、资本利润率下滑，资本利润率下滑导致资本积累停滞。其次，文章还分析了在利润扭曲条件下凯恩斯主义政策失效的原因。其作用机制如下：凯恩斯主义扩张经济政策导致利润扭曲加剧，进而导致资本的收益率水平进一步恶化，不仅不能刺激投资的增长反而会导致有效资本存量的减少。
第四部分，该部分对上世纪80年代美国的税收政策和财政政策进行分析，认为美国这一时期经济政策则的核心思想是：恢复资本的边际收益率水平，让经济回到资本积累的轨道上来。其经济政策的具体措施是：（1）税收政策。一方面让能够获取租金收益的部门多负担税收，另一方面通过减税恢复资本品部门的边际收益水平。通过减税和增税的双向调整，刺激私人部门的资本积累，同时力求财政收支平衡。（2）财政政策。通过预算平衡法案限制财政支出的膨胀，减少联邦政府支出对于经济资源的过多占用。在借鉴美国经验的基础上，笔者提出了深化资源性产品价格和环保收费改革，优化税制结构、重新分摊税收负担，推进预算管理体制改革等三方面的政策建议。
It is more than thirty years since1978from which our country began to reformand open up. China’s economy has made considerable development, and now ChineseGDP ranks second in the world. In the whole period capital formation has played afirst important role for economic growth. But in recent years, economy appearsphenomenon of Asset bubble, Inflation and overcapacity. The growth effect of capitalaccumulation is declining. Some economists begin to question that whether “Chinesegrowth miracle” could continue, and think of that China is face with “middle incometrap”.
In the paper, I discuss the problem of “middle income trap” under the frameworkof theory of economic growth. The purpose of my research is trying to answer thequestions as following:(1) what is “middle income trap”.(2) Is it possible for Chinaof entering to “middle income trap”.(3) Which kind of economic operationmechanism causes china entering to “middle income trap”.(4)How does Chinaoverstep “middle income trap”. The four questions above constitute the core contentof the four pants of the paper.
In the first part, I summarized three theoretical models of the neoclassical theoryof economic growth: the Solow-Swan model, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, andthe Diamond model. Then I discussed the process of capital accumulation anddiscrimination conditions of dynamic efficiency in the three models. In theSolow-Swan model, the savings rate is exogenous, and the economy is dynamicinefficiency when savings rate exceeds the optimum savings rate which the economicoptimum growth is required. In Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, the savings rate isendogenous, and the choice of maximization of consumption made by householdresults that capital stock convergence to a point below the Golden Rule level whichmeans there is no dynamic efficiency in Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model. In theDiamond model, the economy is populated by over-lapping generations ofentrepreneurs who live for two periods. The capital stocks depended on decision ofeach generation is likely to exceed the Golden Rule capital stock which meansdynamic inefficiency. On this basis, I analyzed the features of "middle income trap",and explains its economic connotation, it is that”in a certain constraints of economicoperation mechanism, the economic surplus can’t be converted for the effective capital stocks, leading a country into economic development stagnation which thecapital stock is less than the balanced growth path level”.
In the second part, I reviewed literature related to capital accumulation dynamicefficiency, and summed up three ways to distinguish capital accumulation dynamicefficiency: the return on capital method, the equivalent proposition of AMSZ criterion,the optimal savings rate method. The paper draws conclusions about capitalaccumulation dynamic efficiency by using the three methods that: China's capitalstock is less than the level of gold rate less than the balanced growth path level.Meanwhile, China's per capita capital stock is far less than the developed capitalistcountries. This means China has huge space for capital accumulation. Then, Icalculate the capacity utilization of the calendar year by three methods which includethe growth rate projection method, the HP filter method and the production functionmethod. Declining capacity utilization means that the low conversion rate ofinvestment into capital is limiting effective capital formation. Economic surplus iswasted by inefficient investment, and then the capital stock of the economy maintainscertain level. This will lead our country into "middle income trap" in2014. In addition,I analyzed different types of “middle income trap”, and pointed out that the primaryrisk of facing "middle income trap" is the government's macro-control policies, andthat the second is the risk of capital outflows.
In the third part, this paper firstly calculated impact of inflation on corporate tax.The calculated results show that inflation results the revaluation of fixed assets andinventory and additional taxation of6509.41billion Yuan in2010, accounting forGDP1.62%. The same time, the paper also calculates excess returns which extractiveindustries gain by raising the price shocks of extractive industries. The excess returnsare2.6trillion Yuan, accounting for6.51percent of GDP. Economic operationmechanism leading to stagnant of capital accumulation is that: inflation and the priceimpact of extractive industries distort margin and deteriorate return on capital, andlower margin leads to stagnant of capital accumulation. Secondly, the article alsoanalyzes the reason for the failure of Keynesian policies in condition of margindistortion. The mechanism is that: Keynesian economic policies lead to inflationwhich exacerbate margin distortion, and return on capital become lower. SoKeynesian economic policies will not only fail to stimulate the growth of investment,but also limiting effective capital accumulation.
In the fourth part, I review U.S. tax policy and fiscal policy in1980s, and the core idea of the U.S. economic policy during that period is: restoring the level of themarginal rate of return of capital, and taking the economy back to the capitalaccumulation. The economic policy mainly includes:(1) Tax policy. On one handthe enterprises which could earn excess profits take more taxes, and on the other handtax cutting restore the level of the marginal rate of return of capital. The taxationchange is in two different directions which encourages private investment and try tomaintain a balanced budget.(2) Fiscal policy. The introduction of the balanced budgetbill limit the expansion of fiscal expenditure, and reducing federal governmentspending means that the private sector can obtain more economic resources. Based onAmerican experience, the paper gives policy recommendations which include threeparts: reforming the formation mechanism of resource price and environmentalprotection charges; improve the tax structure, and redistribute the tax burden; promotethe reform of the budget system.
引文
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