环境不确定性视角下商业计划与新企业绩效作用机制研究
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摘要
新企业创建是一个动态的复杂过程，在此过程中创业者需要开展一系列的准备活动来实现资源的合理配置，最终促使新企业的顺利生成，这些创业活动的发生是一系列线性与非线性交织的复杂过程。在这些创业活动中，商业计划制定是新企业生成过程中一项极其重要并且特殊的创业活动，它在新企业生成的过程中扮演着两种不同的角色：一方面，经济理性视角下的商业计划书可以作为创业者开发机会，进行资源整合活动的指导工具；另一方面，在新企业创办过程中，商业计划可以被利益相关者作为一种能与新企业内在素质共变的可观测属性来对新企业进行评价，因此，在制度理论中合法化分析逻辑下的商业计划书还是创业者迫于制度压力而谋求合法化的重要途径。鉴于商业计划在创业过程中的重要作用，为了深入剖析创业过程的客观规律性，本研究沿袭了创业领域中过程视角的主流研究范式，依托南开大学创业管理研究中心实施的中国创业动态跟踪调查项目（Chinese Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics,CPSED），以商业计划制定这一特殊的创业活动作为切入点，深入解读了商业计划在新企业生成过程中的重要作用机制，力图以此揭示创业过程的本质特征。
本研究整体围绕商业计划这一核心构念展开设计，大体可以分为两个部分，第一部分研究向前延伸，考察了影响商业计划制定的前置因素，重点解析了制度压力、创业者先前经验与创业机会对商业计划制定的影响机制；第二部分研究向后挖掘，深入探索了商业计划与新企业绩效之间的逻辑链条，并考察了环境不确定性在这一过程中的权变作用机制。本研究首先以制度理论、合法化理论、以及目标设定理论为基础，同时融合了战略管理研究领域的分析思路，逐步建立构念间的逻辑链条；随后，本文利用CPSED调研所获取的大样本数据，运用因子分析、信度与效度检验、层级式线性回归分析、层级式逻辑回归分析等方法进行了实证检验，得出了以下结论：第一，创业者制定商业计划是制度因素与经济理性因素合力驱动下的行为；制度强制同构作用力、机会本质属性与创业者先前工作经验的差异导致创业者制定不同正式程度的商业计划。第二，创业者在创业早期制定较高正式程度的商业计划有利于提升新企业的财务绩效。第三，创业者在创业早期制定较高正式程度的商业计划可以确保更多创业活动的顺利开展；并且制定商业计划的时机越早，越有助于提升创业者完成各项创业活动的效率。第四，竞争环境不确定性在计划与新企业绩效作用过程中发挥着重要的调节作用：一方面，竞争环境不确定性越高，制定更为正式的商业计划能显著提升新企业财务绩效；另一方面，竞争环境不确定性越高，早期制定高正式程度的商业计划会降低创业活动的实施效率。
本文的创新之处主要体现在以下三个方面：第一，将商业计划制定与新企业绩效作为研究主线，以要素互动匹配的全新视角探索了影响新企业绩效的动态作用机制。第二，深入行为层次，详细剖析了商业计划制定时机与正式程度对创业活动影响的机制，清晰的刻画了计划-活动-绩效间的内在因果联系。第三，针对以往计划与绩效研究情境条件的欠缺，将环境不确定性区分为融资环境不确定性与竞争环境不确定性两种，系统而全面解析了外部情境因素对计划与绩效作用过程的调节作用机制。
本文整体结构安排如下：第一章绪论部分主要提出了研究背景，由此引出研究问题，同时本章还概括了具体研究内容与所运用的研究方法。第二章文献综述部分，主要围绕着研究问题所依托的理论基础与理论情境进行了详尽的阐述。第三章是整体研究模型的推导与构建，本章依据具体的研究问题与研究内容，首先在系统梳理与归纳先前研究的基础上，对本研究所涉及的关键变量进行界定；然后，以理论推演与现实观察相互结合的思路对本研究整体研究模型进行了设计。第四章阐述了整体研究设计及采用的研究方法，并简述了CPSED调研实施的全部过程。第五章是实证分析与数据处理部分，主要对前面提出的理论框架进行实际验证。第六章是对整体研究的总结，提炼出本文的主要研究结论与创新点，同时分析本研究可能存在的不足之处，并提出未来的研究方向。
The creation of new businesses is a dynamic and complex process. In thisprocess, entrepreneurs need to carry out a series of preparatory activities to achieve arational allocation of resources, make the new businesses successfully creation. Theoccurrence of these entrepreneurial activities is a complex process intertwined by aseries of linear and nonlinear. In these entrepreneurial activities, the business plan isan extremely important and special entrepreneurial activity; it plays two differentroles in the process of new business gestation: on the one hand, under the perspectiveof economic rationality, the business plan can be used to develop opportunities, andguide resource integration activities; on the other hand, business plan can be used bythe stakeholders as a covariant factors with the intrinsic quality of the new enterprise.Therefore, under the logic of legitimating, business plan is an important way to makethe new firm legitimating. As the important role of the business plan in theentrepreneurial process, we want to in-depth analysis the objective regularity of theentrepreneurial process. This research followed the process perspective which is themainstream research paradigm in the entrepreneurial field, relying on the implem-entation of the Chinese the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics(CPSED) by theNankai University Entrepreneurial Management Research Center, and use businessplan this particular entrepreneurial activities as a starting point, to explain themechanisms of the business plan in the generation of new businesses. We are in orderto reveal the essential characteristics of the entrepreneurial process.
The whole study is around the core of the business plan to construct; the designcan be roughly divided into two parts: the first part of the study extend forward,investigating the antecedents of the business plan, focusing on explaining howinstitutional pressure, previous experience and entrepreneurial opportunities influencebusiness plan; the second part of the research extend backward, deeply exploring thelogic chain between the business plan and the new business performance, and examining the contingency mechanism of the environmental uncertainty in theprocess. First of all, we use the institutional theory, the legitimation theory, and thegoal setting theory as the bases of this research, and integrate the analysis of the fieldof strategic management research ideas, gradually establish the chain of logicbetween the constructs; Subsequently, with the large sample data which comes fromCPSED, we use the factor analysis, the reliability and validity testing, the hierarchicallinear regression analysis, the hierarchical logistic regression analysis and othermethods of an empirical test, reaching the following conclusions: First, entrepreneursdevelop a business plan is the behavior of institutional factors and economic rationalfactors work together to drive; the difference of coercive isomorphism forces,previous work experience, and opportunities lead entrepreneurs to develop businessplans of the different degree of formality. Second, entrepreneurs start early to developa business plan for a higher degree of formality is conducive to enhancing thefinancial performance of the new enterprise. Third, Entrepreneurs start early todevelop a business plan with higher degree of formality to ensure the moreentrepreneurial activity take place successfully; and the sooner develop a businessplan, the more help to improve the efficiency of the entrepreneur to complete variousentrepreneurial activities.Fourth, Competitive environment of uncertainty play animportant role in moderating the process of planning and new business performanceeffect: on one hand, if there is the higher the competitive environment of uncertainty,a more formal business plan can significantly enhance the financial performance ofthe new enterprise; on the other hand, there is the higher competitive environmentuncertainty, the early development of business plan with higher degree of formalitywill reduce the efficiency of the implementation of entrepreneurial activities.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First, using the business plan and the new business performance as the main line, witha new perspective of elements integration to explore new businesses creation processduring the dynamic mechanism. Second, in the level of behavior, we analysis themechanism of the timing and formality of business plan influncing the creativeactivity, clearly portray the causal link in plan-activities-performance. Third, with thetheory as the basis of a division, we divide the environmental uncertainty into two aspects: the uncertainty of financing environment and the uncertainty of competitiveenvironment, then we systematically and comprehensively compare the differences ofthe different levels of external contextual factors during the new firm creation.
The overall structure of this paper is organized as follows: The first chapterintroduced the major research background, research questions, research content andresearch methods. The second chapter is the literature review section, around theresearch questions, we expound the theoretical basis and theoretical scenarios. Inchapter three, we construct the overall research model, and define the key variables.The fourth chapter introduces the research design and the approach to the study, andexpounds the whole process of research implementation of CPSED. The fifth chapteris the empirical analysis and data processing, uses the actual verification of thetheoretical framework presented earlier. The sixth chapter is a summary of the overallstudy, points out innovations, while analyses the paper’s inadequacies and thenpresents the future research directions.
本研究整体围绕商业计划这一核心构念展开设计，大体可以分为两个部分，第一部分研究向前延伸，考察了影响商业计划制定的前置因素，重点解析了制度压力、创业者先前经验与创业机会对商业计划制定的影响机制；第二部分研究向后挖掘，深入探索了商业计划与新企业绩效之间的逻辑链条，并考察了环境不确定性在这一过程中的权变作用机制。本研究首先以制度理论、合法化理论、以及目标设定理论为基础，同时融合了战略管理研究领域的分析思路，逐步建立构念间的逻辑链条；随后，本文利用CPSED调研所获取的大样本数据，运用因子分析、信度与效度检验、层级式线性回归分析、层级式逻辑回归分析等方法进行了实证检验，得出了以下结论：第一，创业者制定商业计划是制度因素与经济理性因素合力驱动下的行为；制度强制同构作用力、机会本质属性与创业者先前工作经验的差异导致创业者制定不同正式程度的商业计划。第二，创业者在创业早期制定较高正式程度的商业计划有利于提升新企业的财务绩效。第三，创业者在创业早期制定较高正式程度的商业计划可以确保更多创业活动的顺利开展；并且制定商业计划的时机越早，越有助于提升创业者完成各项创业活动的效率。第四，竞争环境不确定性在计划与新企业绩效作用过程中发挥着重要的调节作用：一方面，竞争环境不确定性越高，制定更为正式的商业计划能显著提升新企业财务绩效；另一方面，竞争环境不确定性越高，早期制定高正式程度的商业计划会降低创业活动的实施效率。
本文的创新之处主要体现在以下三个方面：第一，将商业计划制定与新企业绩效作为研究主线，以要素互动匹配的全新视角探索了影响新企业绩效的动态作用机制。第二，深入行为层次，详细剖析了商业计划制定时机与正式程度对创业活动影响的机制，清晰的刻画了计划-活动-绩效间的内在因果联系。第三，针对以往计划与绩效研究情境条件的欠缺，将环境不确定性区分为融资环境不确定性与竞争环境不确定性两种，系统而全面解析了外部情境因素对计划与绩效作用过程的调节作用机制。
本文整体结构安排如下：第一章绪论部分主要提出了研究背景，由此引出研究问题，同时本章还概括了具体研究内容与所运用的研究方法。第二章文献综述部分，主要围绕着研究问题所依托的理论基础与理论情境进行了详尽的阐述。第三章是整体研究模型的推导与构建，本章依据具体的研究问题与研究内容，首先在系统梳理与归纳先前研究的基础上，对本研究所涉及的关键变量进行界定；然后，以理论推演与现实观察相互结合的思路对本研究整体研究模型进行了设计。第四章阐述了整体研究设计及采用的研究方法，并简述了CPSED调研实施的全部过程。第五章是实证分析与数据处理部分，主要对前面提出的理论框架进行实际验证。第六章是对整体研究的总结，提炼出本文的主要研究结论与创新点，同时分析本研究可能存在的不足之处，并提出未来的研究方向。
The creation of new businesses is a dynamic and complex process. In thisprocess, entrepreneurs need to carry out a series of preparatory activities to achieve arational allocation of resources, make the new businesses successfully creation. Theoccurrence of these entrepreneurial activities is a complex process intertwined by aseries of linear and nonlinear. In these entrepreneurial activities, the business plan isan extremely important and special entrepreneurial activity; it plays two differentroles in the process of new business gestation: on the one hand, under the perspectiveof economic rationality, the business plan can be used to develop opportunities, andguide resource integration activities; on the other hand, business plan can be used bythe stakeholders as a covariant factors with the intrinsic quality of the new enterprise.Therefore, under the logic of legitimating, business plan is an important way to makethe new firm legitimating. As the important role of the business plan in theentrepreneurial process, we want to in-depth analysis the objective regularity of theentrepreneurial process. This research followed the process perspective which is themainstream research paradigm in the entrepreneurial field, relying on the implem-entation of the Chinese the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics(CPSED) by theNankai University Entrepreneurial Management Research Center, and use businessplan this particular entrepreneurial activities as a starting point, to explain themechanisms of the business plan in the generation of new businesses. We are in orderto reveal the essential characteristics of the entrepreneurial process.
The whole study is around the core of the business plan to construct; the designcan be roughly divided into two parts: the first part of the study extend forward,investigating the antecedents of the business plan, focusing on explaining howinstitutional pressure, previous experience and entrepreneurial opportunities influencebusiness plan; the second part of the research extend backward, deeply exploring thelogic chain between the business plan and the new business performance, and examining the contingency mechanism of the environmental uncertainty in theprocess. First of all, we use the institutional theory, the legitimation theory, and thegoal setting theory as the bases of this research, and integrate the analysis of the fieldof strategic management research ideas, gradually establish the chain of logicbetween the constructs; Subsequently, with the large sample data which comes fromCPSED, we use the factor analysis, the reliability and validity testing, the hierarchicallinear regression analysis, the hierarchical logistic regression analysis and othermethods of an empirical test, reaching the following conclusions: First, entrepreneursdevelop a business plan is the behavior of institutional factors and economic rationalfactors work together to drive; the difference of coercive isomorphism forces,previous work experience, and opportunities lead entrepreneurs to develop businessplans of the different degree of formality. Second, entrepreneurs start early to developa business plan for a higher degree of formality is conducive to enhancing thefinancial performance of the new enterprise. Third, Entrepreneurs start early todevelop a business plan with higher degree of formality to ensure the moreentrepreneurial activity take place successfully; and the sooner develop a businessplan, the more help to improve the efficiency of the entrepreneur to complete variousentrepreneurial activities.Fourth, Competitive environment of uncertainty play animportant role in moderating the process of planning and new business performanceeffect: on one hand, if there is the higher the competitive environment of uncertainty,a more formal business plan can significantly enhance the financial performance ofthe new enterprise; on the other hand, there is the higher competitive environmentuncertainty, the early development of business plan with higher degree of formalitywill reduce the efficiency of the implementation of entrepreneurial activities.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:First, using the business plan and the new business performance as the main line, witha new perspective of elements integration to explore new businesses creation processduring the dynamic mechanism. Second, in the level of behavior, we analysis themechanism of the timing and formality of business plan influncing the creativeactivity, clearly portray the causal link in plan-activities-performance. Third, with thetheory as the basis of a division, we divide the environmental uncertainty into two aspects: the uncertainty of financing environment and the uncertainty of competitiveenvironment, then we systematically and comprehensively compare the differences ofthe different levels of external contextual factors during the new firm creation.
The overall structure of this paper is organized as follows: The first chapterintroduced the major research background, research questions, research content andresearch methods. The second chapter is the literature review section, around theresearch questions, we expound the theoretical basis and theoretical scenarios. Inchapter three, we construct the overall research model, and define the key variables.The fourth chapter introduces the research design and the approach to the study, andexpounds the whole process of research implementation of CPSED. The fifth chapteris the empirical analysis and data processing, uses the actual verification of thetheoretical framework presented earlier. The sixth chapter is a summary of the overallstudy, points out innovations, while analyses the paper’s inadequacies and thenpresents the future research directions.
引文
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