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老挝金融发展与经济增长的关系研究
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摘要
金融与经济增长的关系始终是理论研究和实证分析的热点问题。金融作为影响经济增长的重要因素之一,其重要性早已为广大学者所公认。特别是近年来西方学者对金融与经济增长关系的研究不再局限于发达国家,更广泛地推广到了发展中国家。经过不断的实践检验,该理论显现出对发展中国家的经济、金融建设有非常重要的指导作用。因此,将西方日益成熟、完善的理论和老挝的实际情况相结合,考察老挝金融发展与经济增长的关系,是老挝经济建设的迫切需要,同时也为老挝金融体系的发展、金融结构的调整提供理论依据。基于此,选择金融发展对经济增长的影响这一课题,并从金融学的视角系统探讨和研究这一问题,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
     本文首先对金融发展和经济增长的定义进行了界定,并且概括性地阐述了金融发展与经济增长关系的国内外研究,明晰了其中的观点,指出了不足;而且从提供支付系统、影响储蓄率、提高资本配置效率、导致更高比例的储蓄转化为投资等四个方面分析了金融发展如何作用于经济增长,同时进行了经济增长如何作用于金融发展的分析,且对金融发展与经济增长如何相互作用进行了说明。
     其次,基于金融发展对经济增长作用的传导路径和理论分析框架,关于金融发展与经济增长关系之间强调有许多研究理论文献,本章将首先介绍了古典经济增长理论,接着是现代经济增长理论、金融发展理论的主要理论成果,在金融发展理论中介绍了金融结构论、金融抑制论、金融功能的主要理论成果。然而对金融发展与经济增长的作用机制分析,探讨了影响经济增长的金融要素,最后对金融发展与经济增长关系的宏观经济理论进行了梳理与总结,从而为本文进一步的深入研究提供理论基础。
     其三,从金融机构信贷发展概况、股票市场发展概况和保险市场发展概况等三个角度阐述了老挝金融发展的演变过程,同样也介绍了老挝经济增长的演变过程,并对金融发展与经济增长的关系作出基本判断,从而得到了老挝金融发展与经济增长的关系的基本结论。
     其四,在研究的指标设计及实证方法。首先对影响经济增长的金融要素进行归类分析,其次在此基础上构建了反映各要素的指标体系;再次对金融发展和经济增长指标的数据进行定义;最后就金融发展对经济增长影响程度的实证方法作一选择,金融发展与经济增长关系的假设及建立模型,从而为后面两章.的实证研究打下基础。
     其五,在实证研究部分本文研究全国的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,选取金融发展规模、金融发展结构、金融中介效率、外贸和实际利率,将相关变量进行单位根检验、协整分析、构建向量误差修正模型,运用多元线性回归来研究各金融变量对经济增长的影响力度和作用方向。
     其六,在研究区域的金融发展对经济增长的作用时,选取金融发展规模、金融发展结构、金融中介效率、就业人数增长率和投资总额的比例,将相关变量在面板数据模型上进行单位根检验、协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验。
     从本文考察样本所反映的长期稳定的关系来看,老挝金融发展规模、金融发展结构、金融发展中介效率与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的关系我们可以得出个层面全国和地区的如下结论:
     (1)从老挝全国金融发展与经济增长历史和现状来看,自从改革开放以后,伴随着经济的快速发展,老挝金融业整体发展水平也得到改善和提高,特别是金融规模和金融结构的发展与经济的增长保持着良好的同步性向前扩大和提高发展。而这种现象的存在也是我们进行金融发展与经济增长相互影响力研究的中前提之一。
     (2)从老挝金融规模的长期来看,自改革开放以来,老挝金融资产总量不断地扩大并且它的扩张对经济增长起到应有的促进作用。实际上各种金融资产在国民经济中所占的比例越大说明他们在国民经济中的地位越来越重要,但并不意味着一国金融发展的质量达到了相应的水平。如果金融资产扩张建立在高质量、高效率的基础上,那么这种扩张当然会对经济增长起到促进作用,否则,这种扩张隐含着很大的危险。
     (3)从老挝全国金融结构变化的角度来看,最近几年老挝中央银行占银行业总贷款的比例呈现不断下降的趋势,体现出了金融结构的优化,银行业之间开始更多的有序竞争,无疑将有利于发挥金融对经济的正面作用。但是我们同样发现2005年之后,一定程度上体现金融中介效率的银行对非国有银行对非国有企业贷款占银行业总贷款的比例份额却出现下降特征,这些指的标变化很好地说明了银行贷款过程中的“所有制歧视”现象依然广泛存在,这无疑不利于老挝中小企业的发展和扩大。
     (4)从老挝金融中介效率来看,长期以来老挝金融中介效率不断地得到提高和改善,老挝的金融体系仍是以银行为主导的金融体系,银行在整个金融体系中扮演着最为重要的角色,也是目前老挝最重要的金融中介机构。金融中介效率的提高,表现为将更多的储蓄存款转化为投入到实体经济中去,但由于存在存款创造机制,金融中介效率没有促进经济增长是因为在国有商业银行占主导的金融市场中,效率问题并没有得到足够的重视和改善,现有的市场金融市场缺乏多层次,多样化的产品与服务,难以满足需求,也无法促进经济增长。进一步分析可发现,老挝金融系统存贷比率在1987-2008年期间一直下降,然后逐渐有所上升。这主要源于金融机构的信贷投放能力受到制约。一方面,国有商业银行和股份制商业银行按照效益大最化的原则同时兼顾到安全性,实行一级法人管理体制,存有大量资金。另一方面,老挝很多信用担保机构因发展规模小和担保能力较弱,在缓解中小企业融资方面的作用很有限。因此导致经济增长对金融效率提高的作用并不明显。
     (5)从老挝各地区统计描述和面板数据实证分析来看,老挝四个地区金融发展与经济增长水平都存在差异很大,经济与金融比较发达都集中在老挝中部和首都万象,这是老挝各地区间存在较大的差异和不平衡现象问题。通过对金融结构、金融规模和金融中介效率的考察,本文发现四个大地区在金融存款、金融贷款等方面表现比较为一致的变化趋势。在绝对规模上,万象首都和中部在上述方面都占绝对优势,但南部、北部地区在近几年的增长速度上却有明显的追赶趋势,甚至某一些指标的速度上还跟首都万象和中部差不多。在金融资产使用效率方面,中部地区在四个地区中最高的,万象首都地区次之,南部和北部最低,由此可见,各个地区金融资产使用效率情况与金融结构规模关联性很大,且与地区的经济发展情况相关性也很强。
     最后本文对整个研究进行了总结并针对上述分析结果提出相应的具有可行性的政策性建议,然后对本文研究不足之处提出了展望。
The relationship between finance and economic growth has always been a theoretical and empirical analysis of the hot issues. Finance as one of the important factors affecting economic growth, and its importance for the majority of scholars has long recognized. Especially Western scholars in recent years, research on the relationship between finance and economic growth is no longer confined to developed countries the wider extended to developing countries. After constant practice test, the theory showing the economies of developing countries, the financial building has a very important role in guiding. Therefore, the combination of the West has become more sophisticated, perfect theory and the actual situation in Laos, Lao economic construction an urgent need to examine the relationship between the Lao financial development and economic growth, as well as the Lao financial system development, financial structure adjustment theoretical basis. Based on this, select the subject of the impact of financial development on economic growth, and to explore and study this issue from the perspective of finance system has important theoretical and practical significance.
     First,the definition of financial development and economic growth are defined and elaborate financial development and economic growth in the relationship between domestic and foreign research sumary, clear view, pointed out deficiencies; affect the savings rate and payment system, financial development, improve the efficiency of capital allocation, resulting in a higher proportion of savings into investment four analyed how to act on economic growth, while economic growth analysis of how to act on financial de velopment, and how the financial development and economic growth in ter actions have been decribed.
     Secondly, based on the conduction path and the theoretical analysis of the role of financial development on economic growth framework, many studies theoretical literature emphasized the relationship between financial development and economic growth, this chapter will first introduce the classical theory of economic growth, followed by the modern theory of economic growth,the main theoretical results in the theory of financial development, financial structure theory introduced in the theory of financial development, financial repression theory, the main theoretical results of the financial function. However analysis of the mechanism of action of financial development and economic growth, and to explore the financial elements affecting economic growth, combing and financial development and economic growth in the relationship between macroeconomic theory to provide a theoretical basis for further in-depth research for this article.
     Third, from three angles overview of the development of financial institutions, credit, stock market development overview and insurance market development general described the evolution of the financial development in Laos, also describes the evolution of the Lao economic growth and financial development and economic growthrelationship to make a basic judgment, which has been the basic conclusion of the relationship of financial development and economic growth in Laos.
     Fourth, the indicators in the study design and empirical methods. First, classify and analyze the impact of the financial elements of the economic growth, the Second reflect the elements of the index system was constructed on this basis; defined indicators of financial development and economic growth data again; Finally, the degree of financial development on economic growth assumptions and model, which for the next two chapters of empirical research to lay the foundation of the empirical method for selection, financial development and economic growth relationship.
     Fifth, the empirical research part of this study the role of the country's financial development on economic growth, the scale of financial development, financial development structure, the efficiency of financial intermediation, foreign trade and the effective interest rate is selected, the relevant variables unit root test, cointegration analysis,Construction of the vector error correction model, the use of multiple linear regression was used to study the various financial variables affect the intensity and direction of action for economic growth.
     Sixth, the role of financial development on economic growth in the study area, select the scale of financial development, financial development structure, the efficiency of financial intermediation, employment growth and the proportion of the total investment, the relevant variables in the panel data model unit roottest, cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.
     This paper examines the sample reflects the long-term stable relationship of view, there are long-term and stable relationship between the size of the Lao financial development, financial development, structure, financial development intermediary efficiency and economic growth following conclusion we can come to a level of national and regional:
     (1) from the point of view of the Laos national financial development and economic growth in the history and current status, since the reform and opening-up, along with the rapid development of the economy, the level of development of the financial sector as a whole, Laos has also been improved and enhanced, in particular, the development of the financial scale and financial structuremaintain good synchronization forward to expand and improve the development and economic growth. The existence of this phenomenon is also our financial development and economic growth are mutually influential study in one of the premises.
     (2) from the Laos financial scale, long-term point of view, since the reform and opening up, the Lao total financial assets continue to expand and its expansion to play its due role in promoting economic growth. In fact, a variety of financial assets, the greater the proportion in the national economy that they are becoming more and more important in the national economy, but that does not mean that the quality of a country's financial development reached the appropriate level. If the expansion of financial assets on the basis of high-quality, high-efficiency, this expansion is of course the economic growth play a facilitating role, otherwise, this expansion implies a great danger.
     (3) From the point of view of the Laos national financial structural changes in recent years, the Central Bank of Laos accounted for the proportion of the total loans of the banking sector showing a declining trend, reflecting the optimization of the financial structure between the banking industry began moresequence competition, no doubt, will be beneficial to the role of financial positive effect on the economy. But we also found that after2005, to some extent reflects the efficiency of financial intermediation bank share of non-state-owned banks lending to non-state-owned enterprises accounted for the proportion of the total loans of the banking sector has declined characteristics, these marked changes to the bank ownership discrimination "phenomenon is still widespread in the loan process, which undoubtedly is not conducive to the development of SMEs Laos and expand.
     (4) from the point of view of the Lao efficiency of financial intermediation, Lao efficiency of financial intermediation has long been constantly upgrading and improving the Lao financial system is still based on the bank-dominated financial system, banks play the most important role in the financial system as a wholeis Laos's most important financial intermediaries. The improvement of the efficiency of financial intermediation, the performance of the more savings deposits to go into the real economy, but due to the presence of deposit creation mechanism, the efficiency of financial intermediation not promote economic growth because of the leading financial market in the state-owned commercial banks accounted for, efficiency issues and did not get enough attention and improve the existing market and financial market the lack of multi-level, a variety of products and services, it is difficult to meet the demand, and can not promote economic growth. Further analysis can be found, the loan-to-deposit ratio of the Lao financial system has been declining in the1987-2008period, and then gradually increased. This is mainly due to the ability of financial institutions and credit constraints. The one hand, the state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks in accordance with the principle of effective most of both to the security, the implementation of a corporate management system, there are a lot of money. On the other hand, the Lao lot of credit guarantee institutions for the development of small scale and weak guarantee a very limited role in the mitigation of SME financing. Therefore, the role of economic growth to improve the financial efficiency is not obvious.
     (5) from the point of view of the empirical analysis of the statistical description of various regions of Laos and panel data, Laos four regional financial development and economic growth level there are very different economic and financial developed are concentrated in central Laos capital, Vientiane, Laosover the interval there is a big difference and imbalance. Investigation of the efficiency of financial structure size and financial intermediaries, consistent performance trend of the four large regional financial deposits, financial loans. Absolute scale, the capital city of Vientiane and central in the dominant, but the southern and northern regions, the growth rate in recent years, there are significant catch-up trend, and even the speed of some indicators even went to the capital, Vientiane, and Central almost. Use efficiency in financial assets, the central region of the highest in four regions in Vientiane, the capital region, followed by the southern and northern part of the lowest, shows that the correlation of the scale of the efficient use of financial assets and financial structure of the various regions, and related to the region's economic development situation is also very strong.
     Finally, the paper summarizes the entire research and feasible policy recommendations for the above analysis, and the inadequacies of this study.
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