知识密集型产业技术创新演化机理及相关政策研究
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摘要
面对经济增长带来的各方面压力，中国已经开始意识到产业动态位置调整对于稳定经济地位，促进经济发展的重要作用。十八大报告中明确指出，创新战略的实施要以科技知识为基础，通过促进产业创新实现经济飞跃。由此，以技术创新管理为核心的知识密集型产业已经成为推动我国经济发展的中流砥柱。在经济学进入多元化发展的今天，在当前多变且复杂的社会经济环境中，系统、深入地研究知识密集型产业技术创新的演化问题，科学、可行地提出相关政策和建议，对于我国经济的健康发展、产业的结构调整和技术的持续进步具有重要的理论和现实意义。
首先，本文在总结和综合评价国内外关于知识密集型产业、关于知识的技术创新、技术创新复杂性、技术创新演化和智能体仿真模型等相关理论的基础上，从中观视角出发界定知识密集型产业，并对其特征予以描述。引入复杂性科学的观点，分析了知识密集型产业技术创新及其演化的七个复杂性特征，论述了知识密集型产业及其演化的多层次结构和适应系统优越性。在此基础上，提出了知识密集型产业技术创新适应性演化的观点，定义了kene和知识空间，探讨了知识密集型产业技术创新演化的适应性机理，并采用仿真模型对其进行智能体仿真。
其次，本文采用假设检验的方法对知识密集型产业技术创新演化的外部和内部动力要素进行识别。在因子分析和相关分析的基础上，将外部动力要素分为基础设施环境要素、社会文化环境要素、市场环境要素、政策制度环境要素和科技环境要素五类。根据结构方程的分析结果，认为内部动力要素即为知识空间中的kene。根据内外动力要素之间的不同交互，将知识密集型产业技术创新演化分为“技术—环境”交互下的演化和“技术—技术”交互下的演化两种类型，其中后者又包括竞争与合作两种关系。
复次，本文将知识密集型产业“技术—环境”交互下的创新演化机理分为三个方面：一是新达尔文主义观点中，环境对技术的自然选择机理；二是拉马克主义观点中，技术对环境的学习机理；三是技术涌现对环境的改变机理。根据选择、学习和改变三个方面的机理，借鉴复杂适应系统中环境与主体互动影响的研究方法，建立知识密集型产业“技术—环境”作用下创新演化的“刺激—反应”三层模型并进行相应的仿真。另外，本文将知识密集型产业“技术—技术”作用下的创新演化机理分为竞争和合作两方面的内容。根据ARTHUR博弈模型建立了知识密集型产业竞争关系技术创新的演化模型，讨论采用者数量、技术自然偏好和技术收益三个变量变化分别对能力相同和能力不同情况下博弈结果的影响。此外，基于巨元组网络模型的演化机理建立知识密集型产业合作技术创新演化的网络模型，分别从一般合作、供应链合作两种情况讨论和模拟合作网络中知识密集型产业技术创新的演化情况。
再次，根据“技术—环境”和“技术—技术”两种创新演化机理的分析，本文对知识密集型产业技术创新演和群落生态学理论之间的同构性进行分析，对动态非均衡性、涌现性和适应性三种特征予以描述，并建立知识密集型产业技术创新演化的整体模型，将演化过程划分为互不干扰阶段、相互干扰阶段、共摊阶段和协同演化阶段，并对该模型进行智能体仿真。
最后，本文提出知识密集型产业技术创新演化相关政策的分析框架，并从驱动强化政策、支撑政策和引导政策三个方面阐述相关的政策内容。以吉林省新能源汽车产业作为研究对象，采用政策分析框架描述了该产业技术创新演化中的功能模式和诱导阻碍机制，提出吉林省发展新能源汽车产业技术的相关政策。
When facing various pressures coming with economy’s development, China has realizedthe importance of industries’ dynamic position adjustment to stabilize economy status, as wellas to development of economy. It is written explicitly in the eighteenth big report that, thecompletion of innovation strategy should be based on knowledge of science and technology,and at last achieve economic leap through promoting the innovation in industries. Thus,knowledge-intensive industry, which takes technological innovation management as the core,has become the mainstay in promoting the economy’s development of our country. Today,when economics entering diversified development, in this changing and complex socialeconomic environment, it is of great theoretic and empirical significance to systematically anddeeply study the evolution problems in technological innovation in knowledge-intensiveindustry, as well as propose relevant policies and suggestions, which will encourage thehealthy development of our country’s economy, adjust the industries’ structure and makeprogress of technology continuously.
First of all, on summarizing relevant theories of knowledge-intensive industries,knowledge-based technological innovation, complexity of technological innovation,technological innovation’s evolution and agent-based modeling simulation in both home andabroad, this thesis uses meso-perspective to define knowledge-intensive industry and describeits characteristics. Based on viewpoint of Complex Science, this thesis analyzes7basic-pointsof complex of technological innovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry,addresses the multi-structure of it, as well as the superiority of adaptive systems. On this basis,this thesis proposes the adaptive evolution point of view in knowledge-intensive industry’stechnological innovation, defies kene and knowledge space, discusses the adaptivemechanisms of technological innovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, anddoes agent-based modeling simulation to the mechanisms.
Second, it is in this thesis that I use hypothesis-test to identify the internal and externaldriving-factors of technological innovation evolution in knowledge-intensive industry. Resultsof factor analysis and correlation analysis show that, there are five external driving-factors,namely infrastructure environment factor, social-culture environment factor, marketenvironment factor, policy environment factor and technology environment factor. Results of structural equation model implie that, the internal driving factor is actually kene in theknowledge space. According to different interactions between internal and external factors,this thesis defines two types of innovation evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, namely“technology-environment” evolution and “technology-technology” evolution, the latter oneincludes competition and cooperation.
Third, there are three aspects of innovation’s evolution mechanisms ofknowledge-intensive industry’s “technology-environment” relationship: the first one is thenatural selection mechanism of environment to technology, based on neo-Darwinism; thesecond one is the learning mechanism of technology to environment, based on deLamark’sacademic view; the third one is the changing mechanism of technology’s emergence toenvironment. Based on selection, learning and changing mechanisms, this thesis uses theresearching method of interactions between environment and agents in complex adaptivesystem to establish the three-layer model of “technology-environment” innovation evolutionin knowledge-intensive industry and simulate it. Furthermore, there are two aspects, namelycompetition and cooperation in the innovation evolution mechanisms of knowledge-intensiveindustry’s “technology-technology” relationship. Having references of ARTHUR model, thisthesis builds an evolutionary model of competitive technological innovation inknowledge-intensive industries, discusses the three variances, which are adopters’ population,technology’s natural preferences and technology’s returns, and the influences they cause to thegame results separately when abilities are same and when abilities are different. And, basedon giant component model, this thesis establishes network model of cooperative technologicalinnovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, and addresses and simulates theevolution process in the cooperative network of knowledge-intensive industry separately fromnormal cooperation and supply-chain cooperation.
Forth, according to the two evolutionary mechanism analysis of‘technology-environment’ and ‘technology-technology’, this thesis analyzes the isomorphismbetween knowledge-intensive industry’s technological innovation’s evolution and communityecological theory and describes the three characteristics including dynamic unbalance,emergence and adaptability, and then it constructs the whole model of technologicalinnovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, divides the evolution processes intonon-interfering phase, mutual interference phase, sharing phase and coevolutionary phase and then uses the simulation model to simulate them.
Finally, this thesis puts forward the framework of relevant policies ofknowledge-intensive industry’s technological innovation’s evolution and states the relevantpolicies from three aspects including driven-strengthening policy, supporting policy andguiding policy. Then, this thesis uses the policy analysis framework to describe the functionalpatterns, inducing and blocking mechanisms in the technological innovation’s evolution bytaking the new-energy vehicle industry of Jilin Province as the research case, at last, itproposes the relative policies of technology of the new-energy vehicle industry in JilinProvince.
首先，本文在总结和综合评价国内外关于知识密集型产业、关于知识的技术创新、技术创新复杂性、技术创新演化和智能体仿真模型等相关理论的基础上，从中观视角出发界定知识密集型产业，并对其特征予以描述。引入复杂性科学的观点，分析了知识密集型产业技术创新及其演化的七个复杂性特征，论述了知识密集型产业及其演化的多层次结构和适应系统优越性。在此基础上，提出了知识密集型产业技术创新适应性演化的观点，定义了kene和知识空间，探讨了知识密集型产业技术创新演化的适应性机理，并采用仿真模型对其进行智能体仿真。
其次，本文采用假设检验的方法对知识密集型产业技术创新演化的外部和内部动力要素进行识别。在因子分析和相关分析的基础上，将外部动力要素分为基础设施环境要素、社会文化环境要素、市场环境要素、政策制度环境要素和科技环境要素五类。根据结构方程的分析结果，认为内部动力要素即为知识空间中的kene。根据内外动力要素之间的不同交互，将知识密集型产业技术创新演化分为“技术—环境”交互下的演化和“技术—技术”交互下的演化两种类型，其中后者又包括竞争与合作两种关系。
复次，本文将知识密集型产业“技术—环境”交互下的创新演化机理分为三个方面：一是新达尔文主义观点中，环境对技术的自然选择机理；二是拉马克主义观点中，技术对环境的学习机理；三是技术涌现对环境的改变机理。根据选择、学习和改变三个方面的机理，借鉴复杂适应系统中环境与主体互动影响的研究方法，建立知识密集型产业“技术—环境”作用下创新演化的“刺激—反应”三层模型并进行相应的仿真。另外，本文将知识密集型产业“技术—技术”作用下的创新演化机理分为竞争和合作两方面的内容。根据ARTHUR博弈模型建立了知识密集型产业竞争关系技术创新的演化模型，讨论采用者数量、技术自然偏好和技术收益三个变量变化分别对能力相同和能力不同情况下博弈结果的影响。此外，基于巨元组网络模型的演化机理建立知识密集型产业合作技术创新演化的网络模型，分别从一般合作、供应链合作两种情况讨论和模拟合作网络中知识密集型产业技术创新的演化情况。
再次，根据“技术—环境”和“技术—技术”两种创新演化机理的分析，本文对知识密集型产业技术创新演和群落生态学理论之间的同构性进行分析，对动态非均衡性、涌现性和适应性三种特征予以描述，并建立知识密集型产业技术创新演化的整体模型，将演化过程划分为互不干扰阶段、相互干扰阶段、共摊阶段和协同演化阶段，并对该模型进行智能体仿真。
最后，本文提出知识密集型产业技术创新演化相关政策的分析框架，并从驱动强化政策、支撑政策和引导政策三个方面阐述相关的政策内容。以吉林省新能源汽车产业作为研究对象，采用政策分析框架描述了该产业技术创新演化中的功能模式和诱导阻碍机制，提出吉林省发展新能源汽车产业技术的相关政策。
When facing various pressures coming with economy’s development, China has realizedthe importance of industries’ dynamic position adjustment to stabilize economy status, as wellas to development of economy. It is written explicitly in the eighteenth big report that, thecompletion of innovation strategy should be based on knowledge of science and technology,and at last achieve economic leap through promoting the innovation in industries. Thus,knowledge-intensive industry, which takes technological innovation management as the core,has become the mainstay in promoting the economy’s development of our country. Today,when economics entering diversified development, in this changing and complex socialeconomic environment, it is of great theoretic and empirical significance to systematically anddeeply study the evolution problems in technological innovation in knowledge-intensiveindustry, as well as propose relevant policies and suggestions, which will encourage thehealthy development of our country’s economy, adjust the industries’ structure and makeprogress of technology continuously.
First of all, on summarizing relevant theories of knowledge-intensive industries,knowledge-based technological innovation, complexity of technological innovation,technological innovation’s evolution and agent-based modeling simulation in both home andabroad, this thesis uses meso-perspective to define knowledge-intensive industry and describeits characteristics. Based on viewpoint of Complex Science, this thesis analyzes7basic-pointsof complex of technological innovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry,addresses the multi-structure of it, as well as the superiority of adaptive systems. On this basis,this thesis proposes the adaptive evolution point of view in knowledge-intensive industry’stechnological innovation, defies kene and knowledge space, discusses the adaptivemechanisms of technological innovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, anddoes agent-based modeling simulation to the mechanisms.
Second, it is in this thesis that I use hypothesis-test to identify the internal and externaldriving-factors of technological innovation evolution in knowledge-intensive industry. Resultsof factor analysis and correlation analysis show that, there are five external driving-factors,namely infrastructure environment factor, social-culture environment factor, marketenvironment factor, policy environment factor and technology environment factor. Results of structural equation model implie that, the internal driving factor is actually kene in theknowledge space. According to different interactions between internal and external factors,this thesis defines two types of innovation evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, namely“technology-environment” evolution and “technology-technology” evolution, the latter oneincludes competition and cooperation.
Third, there are three aspects of innovation’s evolution mechanisms ofknowledge-intensive industry’s “technology-environment” relationship: the first one is thenatural selection mechanism of environment to technology, based on neo-Darwinism; thesecond one is the learning mechanism of technology to environment, based on deLamark’sacademic view; the third one is the changing mechanism of technology’s emergence toenvironment. Based on selection, learning and changing mechanisms, this thesis uses theresearching method of interactions between environment and agents in complex adaptivesystem to establish the three-layer model of “technology-environment” innovation evolutionin knowledge-intensive industry and simulate it. Furthermore, there are two aspects, namelycompetition and cooperation in the innovation evolution mechanisms of knowledge-intensiveindustry’s “technology-technology” relationship. Having references of ARTHUR model, thisthesis builds an evolutionary model of competitive technological innovation inknowledge-intensive industries, discusses the three variances, which are adopters’ population,technology’s natural preferences and technology’s returns, and the influences they cause to thegame results separately when abilities are same and when abilities are different. And, basedon giant component model, this thesis establishes network model of cooperative technologicalinnovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, and addresses and simulates theevolution process in the cooperative network of knowledge-intensive industry separately fromnormal cooperation and supply-chain cooperation.
Forth, according to the two evolutionary mechanism analysis of‘technology-environment’ and ‘technology-technology’, this thesis analyzes the isomorphismbetween knowledge-intensive industry’s technological innovation’s evolution and communityecological theory and describes the three characteristics including dynamic unbalance,emergence and adaptability, and then it constructs the whole model of technologicalinnovation’s evolution in knowledge-intensive industry, divides the evolution processes intonon-interfering phase, mutual interference phase, sharing phase and coevolutionary phase and then uses the simulation model to simulate them.
Finally, this thesis puts forward the framework of relevant policies ofknowledge-intensive industry’s technological innovation’s evolution and states the relevantpolicies from three aspects including driven-strengthening policy, supporting policy andguiding policy. Then, this thesis uses the policy analysis framework to describe the functionalpatterns, inducing and blocking mechanisms in the technological innovation’s evolution bytaking the new-energy vehicle industry of Jilin Province as the research case, at last, itproposes the relative policies of technology of the new-energy vehicle industry in JilinProvince.
引文
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