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中国全要素土地利用效率计量分析
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摘要
土地是财富之母,是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础。改革开放以来,虽然中国经济持续高速发展创造了“中国奇迹”,但土地作为核心生产要素的地位一直没有改变。在高速发展的中国经济对土地资源产生强劲需求的同时,有限的土地资源也严重约束了其自身的供给能力。围绕土地资源,愈加激化的供需矛盾已经成为制约未来经济健康发展的主要瓶颈。因此,如何提高土地资源利用效率是一重要研究课题。
     作为稀缺性资源,从总体结构角度看,土地资源可以分为农业用地和建设用地两大类别。一方面,作为土地的精华,稳定保持一定面积的农业用地不仅关系到我国粮食等农产品的供需平衡,也是社会稳定和经济可持续发展的重要保障。随着工业化和城镇化的快速推进,农地非农化日趋加剧,我国农地面积逐年缩减,经济发展与农地保护之间矛盾日益突出。同时工业发展带来的环境污染破坏了农地的质量,导致农作物产量下降。上述这些问题决定了我国无法通过扩大农地面积来实现外延式的农业可持续发展,必须走提高农地利用效率的内涵式发展道路。另一方面,建设用地也是我国工业化和城镇化最为核心的生产要素。伴随着经济的快速发展,我国工业化已步入中期发展阶段,工业化的加速发展带动了以开发工业园区为主,铁路、公路、港口码头以及机场等交通运输基础设施为辅的建设用地需求量的大幅增加。另外,城镇化进程的推进带来建成区规模扩张与配套基础设施的建设,同样需要建设用地的大量投入。由于土地资源总量的制约,为了保证粮食安全、农业可持续发展,农地非农化受到法律限制。因此,提高建设用地的利用效率是解决建设用地供需矛盾,推进我国工业化、城镇化快速健康发展的根本途径。本文的选题正是在这样背景下确定的。
     从现有研究成果来看,目前关于土地利用效率的文献大多使用单要素土地利用效率指标或仅关注土地利用的生产效率,忽略了土地资源利用对社会及生态环境产生的影响。本文所构建的全要素土地利用效率模型,在投入指标选取方面既包含土地要素,又包含生产过程需要的其他关联要素;产出指标的选取则涵盖了经济、社会、生态三个方面,更加全面准确的评价了我国土地资源利用效率,为土地资源利用效率研究提供了必要、可行的理论支撑,同时对于提高我国土地资源利用效率具有十分重要的实践意义。
     本文所要研究的核心主要内容包括测算我国土地资源的利用效率,并分析土地利用效率的影响因素。着重解决以下四个问题:(1)土地资源利用效率如何界定;(2)我国土地资源利用效率水平如何;(3)土地资源利用效率的影响因素有哪些;(4)如何提高我国土地资源的利用效率。
     全文共分为七个部分,结构安排如下:
     第一章为绪论,主要介绍文章的选题背景、研究意义、研究的主要内容、研究思路与方法以及论文的创新之处与不足,并对国内外有关土地利用效率的文献进行梳理和简要评述。
     第二章为土地利用的相关理论,本章节首先界定了土地利用效率的内涵,包括土地利用效率的一般性界定、农业用地利用效率概念以及建设用地利用效率概念。在此基础上介绍了土地利用效率的相关理论,主要包括土地利用效率与农业可持续发展关系理论、土地利用效率与城镇化建设关系理论以及土地利用效率与生态环境保护关系理论,为后续章节的研究奠定了理论基础。
     第三章为土地利用效率理论模型及方法,本章节介绍了论文研究所要采用的全要素土地利用效率理论模型及方法。根据研究目的,本文基于数据包络分析(DEA)方法构建了三种全要素土地利用效率理论模型。三种全要素土地利用效率模型对数据的要求及适用性均不相同,因此在实际应用时应根据具体的研究目的及数据可得性来判断选择。在进行土地利用效率影响因素分析的时候,主要使用面板数据模型以及Tobit模型分析方法,本章简要介绍了两种方法的理论模型、估计方法、适用性以及优缺点等内容。
     第四至第五章为土地资源利用效率的测算以及土地资源利用效率的影响因素分析,这两个核心章节从实证角度测算了我国及各地区不同类型土地资源的利用效率,并对我国各类型土地资源利用低效以及不同地区间效率差异的原因进行分析。第四章研究重点包括1985-2011年间全国及各地区土地资源总体利用效率,农业用地及建设用地利用效率测算与分析;第五章主要讨论了各类型土地利用效率低下以及地区间土地利用效率差异的影响因素。
     第六章是提高土地利用效率的若干对策建议,总结了论文的研究成果,并从如何提高土地资源总体利用效率、如何提高农业用地利用效率、如何提高建设用地利用效率以及如何实现土地利用碳减排四个方面为我国现阶段土地管理政策提供了一定启示。
     第七章为结论,本章节对论文的研究结果进行回顾与总结,并指出了论文未来可进一步深入研究的方向。
     在研究过程中,本文注重定性分析与定量分析相结合,既有理论分析又有实证检验,得出如下研究结论:
     1、在全要素生产效率框架下,运用DEA方法构建出全要素土地利用技术效率模型、土地利用经济效率模型和土地利用效率动态分析模型,可以运用这些全要素土地利用效率模型与相应的分析方法,对全国、省际以及不同类型土地的利用效率进行评价。这些效率指标模型一方面在指标设计上能够更加准确的符合效率定义,另一方面也可以克服以往单要素生产率框架下土地生产率指标的缺陷。
     2、测算了中国全要素土地利用技术效率,并进一步分解出规模效率与纯技术效率,发现中国全要素土地利用技术效率非常落后的原因在于低下的规模效率。在此基础上,考虑了投入要素的价格信息对全要素土地利用经济效率进行考察,并继续分解出配置效率,配置效率低下同样导致了我国较低的土地利用效率。使用全要素土地利用效率动态分析模型分别测算了我国全要素农业用地、建设用地利用效率,根据我国农业用地利用效率测算结果,1998年我国发生的特大水灾以及随后出现的农民卖粮难的问题,导致了1998-2002年期间我国全要素农业用地利用相对效率在波折中逐渐下降。此后,伴随农业发展越来越受到国家重视,大量支农、惠农政策相继出台,使得农业用地的利用效率迅速提高。建设用地利用效率水平的测算结果表明,在1985-2011年整个研究时间段中,中国建设用地利用效率呈现出“上升-下降-上升”的变动趋势,发生转折的年份分别为1994年和2006年。根据省级层面数据测算结果显示,不同地区土地资源总体利用效率、农业用地利用效率以及建设用地利用效率间存在显著差异,从东、中、西部三大地区比较来看,效率值较高的是东部地区,然后是中部地区,西部地区效率值最低。
     3、我国土地资源总体利用效率低下的原因在于规模效率与配置效率较低,财政分权导致地方恶性竞争、地区间重复建设、生产要素无法流通以及工业化过程中的过度资本深化,这些都是造成规模效率落后的根本原因,而土地要素相对价格较低导致了配置效率低下。提高农户经营规模对农业用地利用效率有正向影响,在规模一定的情况下,土地细碎化降低了农地利用效率,农村劳动力异地转移与全要素农业用地利用效率在5%的水平上显著负相关,而农村劳动力就地转移规模的增加对全要素农业用地利用效率有显著的正向影响,科技创新同样会提高农业用地利用效率,而农户受教育程度对农业用地利用效率的影响则不显著。加强工业化程度、提高城镇化水平、鼓励科技创新可以促进我国建设用地利用效率的提高。另外,2006年“18亿亩耕地红线”政策的作用十分显著,控制耕地减少和规划调整在一定程度上限制了建设用地的扩张,激励了自身挖潜。在解释土地利用效率地区差异方面,地区经济发展水平、产权制度、资本深化、技术创新等因素可以解释土地资源总体利用效率的地区差异性。分析农业用地利用效率省际差异影响因素的时候,主要从自然环境、农业生产结构特征、地区特征、政府活动、技术等方面展开探讨。通过分析省际建设用地利用效率差异的原因可以发现,靠近大港口附近的省份,建成区面积的扩张会提高建设用地的利用效率,随着距离大港口越来越来远,这种正效应逐渐下降,工业化、城镇化发展程度、创新活动对建设用地利用效率的影响是正向的。
     4、完善“分税制”体制、建立适度的财政分权比重,平衡地方政府的事权与财权平衡。在保持地区间有效竞争的前提下避免重复建设。同其他国家相比,我国相对土地价格较低,导致土地要素配置效率低下,通过提高土地价格可以改善土地要素的配置效率,但从长期来看,加强人力资本投资,提高劳动生产率才是改善土地要素配置效率的根本之道,可以实现土地要素配置效率和土地利用技术效率的同步提升,进而提高我国土地资源利用效率。加快农业用地流转、创造更多的本地非农就业机会、推进农村基层农地产权制度实施,提高农户土地产权的安全性、加大科技推广力度,提高农业生产技术水平可以提高农业用地利用效率水平。建设用地的高效利用应把握以下几点:控制建设用地的规模、充分利用现有存量建设用地、推进城镇化健康有序地发展、建立地区间土地利用指标的交易机制。
     本文研究是在继承前人研究的基础上进行的,主要创新在以下几个方面:
     (1)清晰的界定了土地利用效率概念。现有研究关于土地利用效率的概念并没有明确、一致的界定,因此在选取评价指标以及测算方法的时候随意性较强,导致土地利用效率测算结果差异较大。本文在全要素生产率框架下定义了土地利用效率的概念,克服了传统单要素土地利用效率的局限性,在投入指标选取方面既包含土地要素,又包含生产过程需要的其他关联要素;产出指标的选取则涵盖了经济、社会、生态三个方面,更加全面准确的评价了我国土地资源利用效率,
     (2)研究范围更加广泛全面。现有研究受数据获取难度较大等原因的影响,目前国内运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对土地利用效率的评价主要集中在城市建设用地、耕地方面,而关于农地利用效率以及土地资源总体利用效率的研究还比较少。文本在界定了土地资源、农业用地、建设用地概念的基础上,分别选取土地资源总量数据、农业用地数据以及建设用地数据对土地利用效率进行测算,测算结果可信度增强。
     此外,现有文章使用数据包络分析(DEA)方法测算土地资源利用效率时,仅对技术效率进一步分解出规模效率进行分析,由于投入要素价格通常难以获得,没有考察要素的配置效率。本文考虑了投入要素的价格信息,使用配置效率的分析方法对中国土地资源利用低效的原因进行了解释,弥补了现有研究的不足。
     (3)考察了我国土地利用效率的时序特征。现有研究在使用数据包络分析(DEA)方法研究土地利用效率的时候大多关注不同区域间的横向比较,忽略了土地利用的纵向动态波动性研究。然而土地利用过程具有连续性、动态性等特征,因此有必要考察土地利用的时序性特征,以实现对土地利用情况的全面揭示和比较。本文基于数据包络分析(DEA)方法构建了全要素土地利用效率动态分析模型,考察了我国土地利用效率的时序特征,从而使得分析更加全面、完整。
Land is the mother of wealth, is the material basis for human survival anddevelopment. Since the reform and opening up, China's sustained rapid economicdevelopment has created a "China miracle", but the land as the core factors of productionstatus has not changed. In the rapid development of China's economy strong demand forland resources, at the same time, the limited land resources are severely constrainedsupply capability. Land resources, the contradiction between supply and demand ofincreasingly intensified has become a bottleneck restricting the development of futureeconomic health, and improve the utilization efficiency of land resources is the only waywhich must be passed to solve this contradiction.
     As a scarce resource, before enhances the efficiency of the land,the first thing toconsider is the configuration problem. From the perspective of the overall structure, theland can be divided into agricultural land and non-agricultural, and the non-agriculturalland is manly used fort construction. On the one hand, as the essence of land, stable tomaintain a certain area of agricultural land is not only related to the balance of supplyand demand of China's grain and other agricultural products, is also the importantguarantee of social stability and economic sustainable development. With the rapiddevelopment of industrialization and urbanization, non-agriculturalization of farmlandarea in our country is becoming more and more intensified, farmland area has reducedyear by year, and the contradiction between economic development and farmlandprotection has increased prominently.At the same time, industrial development hasbrought environmental pollution destruction of farmland quality, leading to the decline incrop yields.
     These problems determines that China cannot through the expansion of farmlandarea to realize sustainable development of agricultural extension, must walk the road ofconnotation type development to improve the efficiency of land use. On the other hand,construction land is also the core factor of production in China's industrialization andurbanization. With the rapid development of economy, the industrialization of ourcountry has entered the middle stage of development.The accelerated development ofindustrialization has led to the development of Industrial Park, construction land demand of railway, highway, port and airport, and other transportation infrastructure as asubstantial increase. In addition, urbanization construction will bring substantial built-uparea expansion and supporting infrastructure, also need large investment to construction.Due to the restriction of the total amount of land resources, and in order to ensure foodsecurity, the sustainable development of agriculture, the farmland changed to benon-agricultural are restricted by law. Therefore, to improve the construction of efficientuse of land is the fundamental way to solve the contradiction between supply anddemand of construction land, and to promote rapid development of industrialization andhealthy development of town in china. This topic is determined in the context of this.
     From the existing research results, the land use efficiency literature mostly use thesingle factor of land use efficiency index or only focus on land use efficiency, but ignorethe social efficiency and ecological efficiency of land resource utilization. The efficiencyof land use total factor model constructed in this paper, in terms of input indexesincluding land element, and contains other associated factors in production process needs;select output index covers three aspects of economic, social, ecological, morecomprehensive and accurate evaluation of the efficiency of the use of land resources inChina, provides the necessary and feasible theory support to study the efficiency of theuse of land resources, at the same time to improve the utilization efficiency of landresources in our country has practical significance.
     This paper is based on the above thoughts, and the core content of the researchincludes calculating the using efficiency of land resources in China, and analyzes thefactors affecting the efficiency of land use. This paper focuses on resolving the followingfour questions:(1) how to define the efficiency of utilization of land resources;(2) howabout utilization efficiency of our country land resources;(3) what are the factors thataffect the efficiency of the use of land resources;(4) how to improve the efficiency ofutilization of land resources in china.The full text is divided into six parts, and its structure is arranged as following:
     The first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the background, researchsignificance, research contents, research ideas and methods as well as innovations of thepaper, and the carding and review of literature on the efficiency of land use in thedomestic and foreign.
     The second chapter is the related theories of land using. This chapter first definesthe connotation of land use efficiency, including the general definitions of land usingefficiency, agricultural land use efficiency concept and the construction land useefficiency concept. On this basis, introduces the related theories of land using efficiencyincluding the relationship between land use and agricultural sustainable developmenttheory, the efficiency of land use and city construction system, and the efficiency of landuse and ecological environment protection theory, which laid the theoretical foundationfor the research in the following chapters.
     The third chapter is the theoretical model and method of land use efficiency, thischapter introduces the total factor land using efficiency theory model and the analysismethod as core research of this paper. According to the study objective, this paper basedon Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method constructs a total of three elements of landuse efficiency theory model. The requirement and applicability of three total factorefficiency of land use model for data and application are not the same, so in practicalapplication, which way to choose should be judged by the detailed objective and detaileddata availability.
     The chapter four and fifth introduce the measurement and calculation of land useefficiency, and analysis of affect elements for land use efficiency. From the empiricalpoint of view, both of these core chapters measure land utilization efficiency in ourcountry and different kinds of types of lands in many areas, and analyze the reasons thatthe land use efficiency of different areas of our country is low and the difference of landuse efficiency of different areas. The fourth chapter focuses on the overall efficiency ofland use between1985-2011national and regional, agricultural utilization efficiencycalculation and analysis of land and construction. The fifth chapter mainly discusses theaffect factors which make the land use efficiency lower and the reasons that aredifference for land use efficiency are different in different areas.
     The sixth chapter is about the reflections on the efficiency of land use, the papersummarizes the research results, and in three aspects to provide certain enlightenment forthe present stage of our country land management policy. That are how to improve theoverall efficiency of land resources, how to improve the agricultural land use efficiencyand how to improve the efficiency of land use for construction.
     The seventh chapter is the conclusion, and this chapter studies the results of thereview and summary, and points out the shortcomings of the thesis and the futuredirection of further study.
     In the research process, this paper focuses on the qualitative analysis andquantitative analysis, and both theoretical analysis and empirical study, so the mainconclusions are as follows:
     1. In the framework of total factor production efficiency, using DEA method toconstruct the model of land use efficiency, economic efficiency model of land use anddynamic analysis model of the land use efficiency, which can use the total factorefficiency of land use model and corresponding analysis methods to evaluate theutilization efficiency of the national, provincial and different types of land. On one hand,these efficiency index models can be more accurately accorded with efficiency in theindex design, on the other hand also can overcome the shortcomings of the previous landproductivity index of single factor productivity framework.
     2. According to measure technical efficiency total factor utilization of land in China,and further decompose the scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency, find the reasonChinese total factor of land use efficiency is very backward in low scale efficiency. Onthis basis, consider the input factors price information on all elements of land useeconomic efficiency as study, and continue to decompose the allocation efficiency, thelow of which can also lead to lower land use efficiency in China. The use efficiency ofdynamic land use total factor analysis model to estimate total factor of agricultural landuse efficiency, according to China's agricultural land utilization efficiency calculatingresults, serious flood happened in our country in1998and the ensuing sell grain difficultproblems, leading to the period1998-2002total factor of agricultural land in Chinarelative to the use of efficiency decreased gradually in the twists and turns. Thereafter,with the development of agriculture more and more national attention, a lot of agriculture,agricultural policies have been introduced, which has made the agricultural utilizationefficiency improve rapidly. Calculation of construction land utilization efficiency showedthat, in1985-2011throughout the study period, Chinese construction land use efficiencyshowed "trend of up down up", has the transition year respectively in1994and2006.According to the provincial level data of measured results show, agricultural land use efficiency and the use of construction land there was a significant difference between thetotal efficiency and the efficiency of utilization of land resources in differentregions.From the East, Middle, West, in three regions, the efficiency value the East ishigher, and the middle of China is lower of efficiency value, the western region is thelowest efficiency value.
     3. Cause inefficient utilization of land resources in our country is the reason overallscale efficiency and allocation efficiency are low, and the fiscal decentralization leads tovicious competition, regional redundant construction, production factors can be not usedfor circulation and in the process of the industrialization of excessive capital deepening,these are the fundamental causes of scale efficiency and backward, and the relative lowerprice of land lead the low allocation efficiency. To improve the scale of the agriculturalland use efficiency have a positive effect on the scale, under certain conditions, landfragmentation reduces the efficiency of land utilization, rural labor and total factor ofagricultural land use efficiency at the5%level have the significant negative correlation,while the transfer scale of rural labor force increases has a significant positive effect onall elements of agricultural land use efficiency, the innovation of science and technologywill also improve the efficiency of agricultural land, but farmers educational level onagricultural land use efficiency is not significant. Strengthen the degree ofindustrialization, improve the level of urbanization, encourage technological innovationcan promote China's construction land utilization efficiency. In addition, in2006the"1800000000acres of arable land red line" policy effect is very significant, that controlthe reduction of cultivated land and planning adjustments to some extent limited theexpansion of building land and encourage their potential. In the explanation of land useefficiency of regional disparities, the regional economic development level, propertyright system, capital deepening, technological innovation and other factors can explainthe difference of land resources use efficiency. Analysis the influence factors ofdifference in different provinces for agricultural land use efficiency influence theefficiency, mainly from the natural environment, structure of agricultural production,area features, government activities, technology and other aspects are discussed. Throughanalysis of the causes of land use efficiency difference provincial construction can befound, near the port nearby provinces, the built-up area expansion can improve the efficient use of land construction, as the distance from the port more and more far, thispositive effect gradually decreased, but effects of industrialization, city developmentlevel, innovation activities on the construction land use efficiency is positive.
     4. Improve the "revenue-sharing" system, establishing fiscal decentralizationproportion is moderate, balance the property right and financial power of localgovernment. To avoid repeated construction in maintaining effective competition amongregions, compared with other countries, China's relatively low land prices, resulting thelower efficiency of land allocation, increase the land price can improve land allocationefficiency, but from a long-term perspective, strengthen human capital investment andimprove labor productivity is the fundamental way for improvement of land factorsallocation efficiency, can realize synchronous promotion in land factors allocationefficiency and technoligical efficiency of land use, and improve the utilization efficiencyof land resources in china. To accelerate the agricultural land circulation, create morelocal employment opportunities, promote the implementation of rural land property rightssystem, improve the rural land property rights security, increase efforts to promotescience and technology, improve the level of agricultural production technology canimprove the efficiency of the level of agricultural land utilization. Efficient use of landfor construction should grasp the following points: control the scale of construction land,make full use of the existing stock of land for construction, advance the healthy andorderly development of city, establish transaction mechanism index of land use area.
     In this paper, based on the existing research, and tries to make some innovations,mainly in the following aspects of the work:
     1. It clearly defines the concept of land use efficiency. The existing research on theconcept of land use efficiency are not clearly defined, consistent, so when selecting theevaluation index and calculation method of the strong capriciousness, lead to largerdifferences in the calculation result of land use efficiency. This paper defines the conceptof land use efficiency in total factor productivity framework, which overcome thelimitations of traditional single factor of land use efficiency. In terms of input indexes, itincluds land element and contains other associated factors in production process needs.As to select output index, it covers three aspects of economic, social and ecological thatgive more comprehensive and accurate evaluation of the efficiency of the use of land resources in China.
     2. More comprehensive study. The existing research is effected by the reasons thatthe data acquisition is difficult to get an and other reasons. Now in China, it adopts thedata envelopment analysis (DEA) method to evaluate the efficiency of land use whichmainly concentrated in the city construction land, cultivated land, and on the landutilization efficiency of land resources utilization efficiency and overall research is stillrelatively small. The text on the definition of the land resources, agricultural land,construction land on the basis of the concept, the land use efficiency is calculatedrespectively by slecting the total land resources data, agricultural land use data and thedata of construction land leading the credibility enhancement of the result.
     In addition, the current papers using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) forcalculation of land use efficiency, only analysis for the technical effiency,which furtherdecompose the scale efficiency, because the input price is usually difficult to obtain, sothe allocative efficiency is not explored. This paper considers the input price information,the inefficiency of Chinese land resources is explained by using the method of allocationefficiency, which make up for the deficiency of the existing research.
     3. The temporal characteristics of land use efficiency in china is studied. Theexisting research on using data envelopment analysis (DEA) method to study theefficiency of land use mostly focus on horizontal comparison between different areas,ignoring the study of longitudinal dynamic land use. However, the process of land usehas the features of continuous, dynamic, so it is necessary to investigate the temporalcharacteristics of land use, so that to reveal and compare the land use condition. Thispaper constructs the dynamic analysis model of total factor land use efficiency, studyingthe dynamic characteristics of China's land use efficiency, which makes the analysis morecomprehensive and complete.
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