微网可靠性评估模型与方法研究
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摘要
近年来，以集中发电、远距离输电和大规模互联电网为特征的电力系统暴露出一些弊端：环境污染严重、运行灵活性不足、建设周期长、故障影响面大等，同时化石燃料的日渐枯竭更敦促人们对当前电力系统发展模式作深刻反思。作为发挥分布式发电(distributed generators，DG)效能的最有效方式，微网具备环境友好、运行方式灵活、投资见效快等优点，微网与大电网互为支撑，有助于提高供电可靠性和电能质量、降低能耗。然而，微网能够灵活实现并网与孤岛的无缝切换，使其有别于传统配电网；微网可接纳不同种类的DG，使微网的运行控制独具特点；大量应用可再生能源DG可实现节能环保，但其出力的间歇性、随机性和相关性给微网规划和定量评估提出了挑战，因此，迫切需要开展微网可靠性研究，使其在指导微网规划、追求综合效益最优中发挥基础性作用。为此，本文针对微网可靠性评估的指标体系、模型与评估方法及其在微网规划中的应用等亟待解决的若干问题进行科学性的探索，主要工作及成果如下：
1)针对微网可靠性评估中结合网络特点分析微网正常/非正常运行状态的需要，根据微网概念，重点从微网的形式、拓扑结构、不同状态下的子网类型等方面介绍微网组网，比较微网和配电网的异同。
2)针对构建微网可靠性指标体系的迫切需求，根据微网的运行与故障特性，通过分析微网对可靠性指标的要求，说明仅引用配电系统的可靠性指标将具有局限性，必须提出新的具体可行的可靠性评估指标。分别从微网作为等值电源/负荷体现的特性、微网间歇性电源出力状况、储能配置、孤岛运行状态和微网效益几个方面提出新的微网可靠性评估指标及其计算方法，并深入分析各指标的具体含义。通过算例分析，说明所提出的指标能有效地描述微网可靠性所蕴含的特性，从而为微网可靠性指标体系的建立提供必要基础。
3)为了在微网可靠性评估中充分考虑DG出力相关性的影响，利用Nataf概率变换原理和多重Gauss数值积分方法获得非标准正态分布相关关系的数学模型，并在计及DG强迫停运、非线性出力等因素的基础上，建立了微网发电系统可靠性评估模型，基于蒙特卡罗方法实现可靠性指标的求解。算例通过定量分析DG出力特性、微网内DG总容量与负荷容量比、一次能源相关系数变化对微网发电可靠性指标的影响，验证所提模型和方法的有效性和通用性。
4)根据微网的运行特点论述了公共联结点(point of common coupling，PCC)和微电源(microsource，MS)的控制策略，在此基础上针对微网孤岛运行时采取负荷削减措施应对发电能力不足的需要，以及微网具有潮流双向性的特点，提出计及潮流约束与运行安全的微网孤岛运行负荷削减优化策略。算例分析说明所提出的方法能够同时计及有功和无功约束，为微网可靠性评估确定负荷削减的位置和容量等状态。
5)根据微网的控制与运行特点，提出了微网负荷可靠性指标的计算方法，并在综合考虑主网停电、MS故障停运、线路故障、MS发电特性、微网孤岛时负荷削减等因素的基础上，基于蒙特卡罗模拟与故障模式后果分析(FMEA)相结合的混合法评估微网可靠性。算例对接入不同类型MS的微网进行充裕度评估与分析比较，验证了所提模型和方法能有效性、全面地评估微网充裕度。
6)建立了以综合效益最大为目标、含可靠性指标约束条件的微网电源规划模型，并应用动态规划方法将该规划模型求解问题化为二阶段决策过程，应用基于Matlab的遗传算法工具箱GAOT实现对算例模型的求解，表明本文所提出的可靠性模型能有效地应用于微网电源优化规划。
Composing of large-scale, long-distance power transmission system and centralizedpower supply system is the typical characteristics of large power system. But, it appear somedisadvantages increasingly such as severe pollution, lack of flexibility, long constructionperiod, severe fault effect and etc. The shortage of fossil fuel propels people to develop thenew modes of power network. The microgrid, acting as the most effective method forexerting the efficiency of distributed generators(DG), has many advantages such asenvironmental friendliness, flexibility and rapid investment return. Microgrid and largepower network can support each other to reduce energy consumption, improve the powersupply reliability and electric power quality. Nevertheless, microgrid can switch seamlesslyand flexibly between grid-connected and islanded state, and that makes microgrid differentfrom traditional power distribution network. With unique running and controlling mechanism,Microgrid can receive different kinds of DG. Wide application of renewable energy DGmakes it significant in energy saving and environmental protection, but some characteristics,specially the intermittency, randomness and correlativity of DG output also create muchproblems for planning and quantitative evaluation of microgrid. Thus, it is urgent to study theprojects about microgrid reliability so that it can effectively instruct the microgrid planningand purchase the optimized comprehensive performance. Therefore, the dissertation studiesseveral imperative problems to be solved, including the reliability indices system ofmicrogrid, the model, analysis method and algorithm for microgrid reliability evaluation, andtheir application in microgrid planning. The main works are as follows:
1. In order to analyze operation state of microgrid according to its network characteristicin microgrid reliability evaluation, by discussing the different characteristics between themicrogrid and the traditional distributed network, some notions are explored such as thecomponents, the network structure, the network-building and the operation mode of themicrogrid according to the definition of microgrid.
2. Aiming at the relentless needs for establishing indices system for microgrid reliabilityevaluation, through analyzing the demands of reliability indices of microgrid according to theoperation and fault property of microgrid, the necessity and limitation of adopting the reliability indices used in distribution system is discussed. It shows that the new practicalindices for microgrid reliability evaluation need to be put forward. Then, this dissertationproposes microgrid reliability indices from four main aspects, those are, the equivalentfeatures of microgrid, the output characteristics of intermittent power source, energy storagedevice, the islanding state of microgrid, and the efficiency of microgrid. Meanwhile, a seriesof definitions and formulas for calculating those indices are given, and their meanings arediscussed. The numerical results of the case demonstrate that the proposed indices can reflectthe characteristics of reliability evaluation of microgrid. It provides the base for establishingthe microgrid reliability indices system.
3. In order to evaluate the reliability of microgrid considering correlativity of DG output,the Nataf probability transforming theory and multi-Gauss numerical integration method areused to establish the mathematical models for correlated variables which obey non standardnormal distribution. Further more, on the base of considering the outage and the nonlinearoutput of DG, the power generation system reliability model is established for the microgrid,and the Monte-Carlo method is used to solve it. In the case, the factors including DG outputcharacteristics, total DG capacity vs. load capacity, and correlation of primary energy, whichinfluences microgrid generation reliability indices, is quantitatively analyzed. The resultindicates that the proposed model and method is valid and general.
4. On the basis of analyzing the control strategies of the point of common coupling(PCC)and microsource(MS), aiming at the characteristics that islanded microgrid need to reduceloads because of insufficient generation capacity and the microgrid has bidirectional powerflow, the tactics and optimization algorithm for load shedding of islanded microgrid ispresented, considering the power flow and operation safety constraints. The numerical resultsshow that the proposed model and method, which considering the active and reactiveconstraints, can provide the load state concerning loads shedding for evaluation of microgridreliability.
5. On the basis of analyzing the operation and control characteristics of the microgrid,the method for solving reliability indices of loads is proposed. The hybrid method based onMonte-Carlo and fault mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is applied to evaluate the microgridreliability, under a series of influence factors of utility’s outage, MS failure, line’s fault, the generation characteristic of MS, loads shedding of islanded microgrid. The numerical casesevaluate the adequacy of microgrid with different kind of MS. Through analyzing, it provedthat the proposed model and method can thoroughly assessing the microgrid reliability.
6. The microgrid power source planning model for the aim of optimized comprehensiveperformance is built, under certain restrictions including reliability indices. The dynamicprogramming method is used to convert the planning model into a two-stages-decisionprocess. The GAOT tool based on Matlab are combined to solve a numerical case. The resultshows that the reliability evaluation model proposed by this dissertation can be applied inpower source planning of microgrid effectively.
1)针对微网可靠性评估中结合网络特点分析微网正常/非正常运行状态的需要，根据微网概念，重点从微网的形式、拓扑结构、不同状态下的子网类型等方面介绍微网组网，比较微网和配电网的异同。
2)针对构建微网可靠性指标体系的迫切需求，根据微网的运行与故障特性，通过分析微网对可靠性指标的要求，说明仅引用配电系统的可靠性指标将具有局限性，必须提出新的具体可行的可靠性评估指标。分别从微网作为等值电源/负荷体现的特性、微网间歇性电源出力状况、储能配置、孤岛运行状态和微网效益几个方面提出新的微网可靠性评估指标及其计算方法，并深入分析各指标的具体含义。通过算例分析，说明所提出的指标能有效地描述微网可靠性所蕴含的特性，从而为微网可靠性指标体系的建立提供必要基础。
3)为了在微网可靠性评估中充分考虑DG出力相关性的影响，利用Nataf概率变换原理和多重Gauss数值积分方法获得非标准正态分布相关关系的数学模型，并在计及DG强迫停运、非线性出力等因素的基础上，建立了微网发电系统可靠性评估模型，基于蒙特卡罗方法实现可靠性指标的求解。算例通过定量分析DG出力特性、微网内DG总容量与负荷容量比、一次能源相关系数变化对微网发电可靠性指标的影响，验证所提模型和方法的有效性和通用性。
4)根据微网的运行特点论述了公共联结点(point of common coupling，PCC)和微电源(microsource，MS)的控制策略，在此基础上针对微网孤岛运行时采取负荷削减措施应对发电能力不足的需要，以及微网具有潮流双向性的特点，提出计及潮流约束与运行安全的微网孤岛运行负荷削减优化策略。算例分析说明所提出的方法能够同时计及有功和无功约束，为微网可靠性评估确定负荷削减的位置和容量等状态。
5)根据微网的控制与运行特点，提出了微网负荷可靠性指标的计算方法，并在综合考虑主网停电、MS故障停运、线路故障、MS发电特性、微网孤岛时负荷削减等因素的基础上，基于蒙特卡罗模拟与故障模式后果分析(FMEA)相结合的混合法评估微网可靠性。算例对接入不同类型MS的微网进行充裕度评估与分析比较，验证了所提模型和方法能有效性、全面地评估微网充裕度。
6)建立了以综合效益最大为目标、含可靠性指标约束条件的微网电源规划模型，并应用动态规划方法将该规划模型求解问题化为二阶段决策过程，应用基于Matlab的遗传算法工具箱GAOT实现对算例模型的求解，表明本文所提出的可靠性模型能有效地应用于微网电源优化规划。
Composing of large-scale, long-distance power transmission system and centralizedpower supply system is the typical characteristics of large power system. But, it appear somedisadvantages increasingly such as severe pollution, lack of flexibility, long constructionperiod, severe fault effect and etc. The shortage of fossil fuel propels people to develop thenew modes of power network. The microgrid, acting as the most effective method forexerting the efficiency of distributed generators(DG), has many advantages such asenvironmental friendliness, flexibility and rapid investment return. Microgrid and largepower network can support each other to reduce energy consumption, improve the powersupply reliability and electric power quality. Nevertheless, microgrid can switch seamlesslyand flexibly between grid-connected and islanded state, and that makes microgrid differentfrom traditional power distribution network. With unique running and controlling mechanism,Microgrid can receive different kinds of DG. Wide application of renewable energy DGmakes it significant in energy saving and environmental protection, but some characteristics,specially the intermittency, randomness and correlativity of DG output also create muchproblems for planning and quantitative evaluation of microgrid. Thus, it is urgent to study theprojects about microgrid reliability so that it can effectively instruct the microgrid planningand purchase the optimized comprehensive performance. Therefore, the dissertation studiesseveral imperative problems to be solved, including the reliability indices system ofmicrogrid, the model, analysis method and algorithm for microgrid reliability evaluation, andtheir application in microgrid planning. The main works are as follows:
1. In order to analyze operation state of microgrid according to its network characteristicin microgrid reliability evaluation, by discussing the different characteristics between themicrogrid and the traditional distributed network, some notions are explored such as thecomponents, the network structure, the network-building and the operation mode of themicrogrid according to the definition of microgrid.
2. Aiming at the relentless needs for establishing indices system for microgrid reliabilityevaluation, through analyzing the demands of reliability indices of microgrid according to theoperation and fault property of microgrid, the necessity and limitation of adopting the reliability indices used in distribution system is discussed. It shows that the new practicalindices for microgrid reliability evaluation need to be put forward. Then, this dissertationproposes microgrid reliability indices from four main aspects, those are, the equivalentfeatures of microgrid, the output characteristics of intermittent power source, energy storagedevice, the islanding state of microgrid, and the efficiency of microgrid. Meanwhile, a seriesof definitions and formulas for calculating those indices are given, and their meanings arediscussed. The numerical results of the case demonstrate that the proposed indices can reflectthe characteristics of reliability evaluation of microgrid. It provides the base for establishingthe microgrid reliability indices system.
3. In order to evaluate the reliability of microgrid considering correlativity of DG output,the Nataf probability transforming theory and multi-Gauss numerical integration method areused to establish the mathematical models for correlated variables which obey non standardnormal distribution. Further more, on the base of considering the outage and the nonlinearoutput of DG, the power generation system reliability model is established for the microgrid,and the Monte-Carlo method is used to solve it. In the case, the factors including DG outputcharacteristics, total DG capacity vs. load capacity, and correlation of primary energy, whichinfluences microgrid generation reliability indices, is quantitatively analyzed. The resultindicates that the proposed model and method is valid and general.
4. On the basis of analyzing the control strategies of the point of common coupling(PCC)and microsource(MS), aiming at the characteristics that islanded microgrid need to reduceloads because of insufficient generation capacity and the microgrid has bidirectional powerflow, the tactics and optimization algorithm for load shedding of islanded microgrid ispresented, considering the power flow and operation safety constraints. The numerical resultsshow that the proposed model and method, which considering the active and reactiveconstraints, can provide the load state concerning loads shedding for evaluation of microgridreliability.
5. On the basis of analyzing the operation and control characteristics of the microgrid,the method for solving reliability indices of loads is proposed. The hybrid method based onMonte-Carlo and fault mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is applied to evaluate the microgridreliability, under a series of influence factors of utility’s outage, MS failure, line’s fault, the generation characteristic of MS, loads shedding of islanded microgrid. The numerical casesevaluate the adequacy of microgrid with different kind of MS. Through analyzing, it provedthat the proposed model and method can thoroughly assessing the microgrid reliability.
6. The microgrid power source planning model for the aim of optimized comprehensiveperformance is built, under certain restrictions including reliability indices. The dynamicprogramming method is used to convert the planning model into a two-stages-decisionprocess. The GAOT tool based on Matlab are combined to solve a numerical case. The resultshows that the reliability evaluation model proposed by this dissertation can be applied inpower source planning of microgrid effectively.
引文
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