大连市水资源可持续利用的配置与评价方法研究
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摘要
水资源是人类生存和发展不可替代的自然资源,是实现社会经济可持续发展的物资基础,同时也是战略性的经济资源,是综合国力的有机组成部分,是人口、经济、社会与资源、环境协调发展的控制性因素。随着经济社会的快速发展,大连市的城市发展理念与发展模式也在不断创新,提出了全域城市化发展的新理念、启动新市区管理体制改革的新模式,以实现科学发展的新跨越。这一新跨越已大大改变了现有水资源开发利用的实施条件,水资源短缺问题不断突出,已成为制约该区域经济社会可持续发展的主要问题。因此,为了尽快满足这些改革发展新举措对水资源所提出的新需求,亟待研究在新跨越发展形势下的大连市水资源可持续综合利用问题,以支撑该地区经济社会可持续发展。本文分析了国内外关于水资源开发利用的研究现状及发展趋势,针对其中存在的问题,以大连市为研究对象,以可持续发展理论为指导,通过分析经济社会可持续发展对水资源的需求和气候变化与人类活动对水资源的影响,主要围绕水资源合理配置、水资源可持续利用状态评价以及相应的可持续利用对策三方面来研究大连市水资源可持续利用问题。本文主要研究内容和成果如下：
(1)根据大连市全域城市化发展的新理念和启动新市区管理体制改革的新模式与国民经济发展规划,分析预测了大连市社会经济发展总体目标；同时,根据用水量的历史资料和社会经济发展指标,充分考虑节水措施,限制高用水、高耗水行业发展,严格执行用水总量控制,确定了大连市主要节水控制指标；采用定额法预测了大连市生活、生产、生态需水量,并从需水总量、用水结构和用水指标等方面分析结果的合理性,明确了大连市经济社会可持续发展对水资源的新需求。
(2)如何客观地评估气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响,是大连市水资源可持续利用的重要问题和基础问题。针对这一问题,以近50年的降雨径流资料为基础,应用统计分析方法,分析了大连地区气候变化和人类活动的特征和规律,研究了气候变化和人类活动对大连市水资源量的影响；并以大连市碧流河为典型流域,通过模型模拟其降雨径流过程,揭示了气候变化、人类活动与水资源量之间的关系；同时,结合典型流域不同的气候变化和人类活动情景,评估了未来气候变化对控制断面来水量的影响。
(3)为充分体现外调水在水资源配置中的重要地位和价值,避免外调水按需分配所造成水资源的浪费,本文在区域水资源配置过程中以研究外调水分配问题为基础,建立了水资源合理配置模型。根据外调水分配原则,综合考虑决策者主观意愿以及城市社会、经济、用水现状,来建立外调水分配模型并确定各目标的综合权重进行求解；以区域经济可持续发展、生态环境质量改善和社会健康稳定等为目标,将外调水分配结果作为约束条件之一,综合协调好多水源多用户水资源配置系统关系,建立水资源多目标配置模型,通过模型求解得到大连市水资源合理配置方案。
(4)根据实行最严格水资源管理制度的思想,从用水总量、效率、水质以及社会经济等方面来确定影响水资源可持续利用状态的少量重要指标,建立基本评价体系,并重点分析确定评价水资源可持续利用状态的指标标准；为了方便考虑水资源承载力的动态性、水资源承载力评价标准及指标值的区间性,应用可变模糊集理论及思想,研究基于区间值的水资源可持续利用状态可变模糊评价方法,并评价可变因子集中因子的多种变化情况下大连市各水平年的水资源可持续利用状态。
(5)针对大连市在新跨越发展形势下的水资源开发利用问题和水资源开发利用逐渐从工程建设转向资源科学管理的特点,根据水利部《关于实行最严格水资源管理制度的意见》,建立了大连市水资源管理“三条红线”控制指标和分解指标体系,从用水总量、效率、水质等不同方面提出了相应的总体管理策略。以此为基础,根据大连市水资源配置成果,针对非常规水源和外调水供水不断增加的实际情况,通过分析大连市海水利用、中水回用、跨流域调水工程等开源措施的重要性及现存主要问题,重点研究提出了相应的工程布局和具体管理对策,以保证工程措施的合理开发利用,促进大连市水资源可持续利用,保障经济社会可持续发展。
最后对全文作了总结,对有待进一步研究的问题进行讨论。
Water resources is the irreplaceable natural resources for human survival and development, and also, it is the material basis to achieve sustainable development of social and economic, the strategic economic resources, the organic component of comprehensive national power, and the control factors of the coordinated development between population, economy, society, resource and environment. With the development of economic society, the development idea and mode of Dalian are in ceaseless innovation, the new idea of global development was proposed, and the new mode of the reform of management system was startup, in order to realized the new span of scientific development. This new span, changes the existing water resources development and utilization conditions greatly and made the water resources shortage problems continue to highlight, is to be the major problem which restrict the sustainable development of regional economy and society. Consequently, issues of water resources sustainable utilization in Dalian city are need to study under the situation of new development, in order to meet the new requirements of the new measures on water resources as soon as possible, and support the sustainable development of regional economic and social. This paper analyze the research status and development trend of the development and utilization of water resources at home and abroad, according to the existing problems, select Dalian city as the study area, guided by the theory of sustainable development, analyze the demand of water resources for sustainable development of social economy and the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources. The study of the sustainable use of water resources in Dalian city are in three aspects:rational allocation of water resources, sustainable utilization evaluation of water resources and the corresponding countermeasures for sustainable utilization. In this paper, the main research contents and results are as follows.
(1) The overall goal of the development of social economy in Dalian city are analyzed and forecasted, according to the new idea of global development and the new mode of the reform of management system and national economic and social development plan. Meanwhile, main water-saving control indexes of Dalian was identified, according to the history water use data and social economic index, and fully considering the water-saving measures, limit of high water consumption industries development, implement the total amount control of water consumption strictly. The new demand of water resources for Economic and social sustainable development in Dalian was to make clear, by forecasting the water demand of living, production and ecology in Dalian in the use of Rating method and analyze the result rationality from many aspects such as the total water requirement, water use structure, water index, and so on.
(2) How to evaluate influence of climate change and human activity on water resource objectively is the important and basic problem of sustainable utilization of water resources in Dalian city. To solve this problem, this thesis analyzed the characteristics and laws of Climate Change and Human Activity in Dalian city and researched impact of climate change and human activity on water resource quantity in Dalian city using statistical analysis method based on information of rainfall and runoff of50years. Simulating rainfall runoff process of the Biliu River through model revealed the connection of climate change, human activity and water resources quantity, meanwhile, estimated the influence of climate change for water inflow of control section in future.
(3) In order to reflect the important position and the value of transferring water in water resources allocation fully, also, to avoid the waste of water resource caused by distribution of transferring water according to demands, this paper built a model of water resources rational allocation based on the distribution of transferring water in the process of regional water resources allocation According to the principle of allocation of transferring water and wishful thinking of decision maker and society, economy, current water using situation of the city, we built a model of distribution of transferring water and determine comprehensive weight of every goal and solved it. A multi-objective optimal allocation of Water Resources was developed by aiming at sustainable development of regional economies, improvement of ecological environment and stabilization of social health, making allocation results of transferring water as one of the constraint conditions, coordinating relation of water resources collocation system of various wellhead and multi-user synthetically. We get plan of water resources rational allocation in Dalian city by solving model we established.
(4) According to the ideology of implementing the most strict water resource management system to establish a basic evaluation system by confirming the few key indexes that affect the status of water resource's sustainable using from the total water volume of water use, efficiency, water quality, social economy and other factors then selective analyze and conform the index standard of water resource sustainable using status. To consider the dynamics, evaluation criteria and indexes' regional of water resource carrying capacity convenience, the variable fuzzy set theory and ideology can be used to research the water resource sustainable using variable fuzzy evaluation method that based on the interval value and evaluate the water resource sustainable using status of Dalian city on condition that multiple various factors and centralize factors are changing.
(5) Nowadays, the mode of water resource exploitation and utilization is being changed from project construction into resource scientific management gradually. In the light of water resource exploitation and utilization problems in the new development situation of Dalian city, this paper proposes its water resources management "Three Red Lines" control indexes and their overall management strategy according to "the Opinion About the Most Stringent Water Resources Management System" from the Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. And it will be implemented from the aspect of total water use, efficiency and water quality. Aiming at water resources allocation achievements of Dalian, water supply goals of the projects about seawater utilization, reclaimed water reusing and inter-basin water transfer is established in the situation of using non-conventional water resource and transferred water on a large scale. And the relevant project distributions and concrete management countermeasures are researched emphatically. These research results are expected to guarantee the rational exploitation and utilization of structural-measures, to promote water resource sustainable utilization and to assure economy and society sustainable development of Dalian city.
Finally, the conclusions are draw and further problems in this study are discussed.
(1)根据大连市全域城市化发展的新理念和启动新市区管理体制改革的新模式与国民经济发展规划,分析预测了大连市社会经济发展总体目标；同时,根据用水量的历史资料和社会经济发展指标,充分考虑节水措施,限制高用水、高耗水行业发展,严格执行用水总量控制,确定了大连市主要节水控制指标；采用定额法预测了大连市生活、生产、生态需水量,并从需水总量、用水结构和用水指标等方面分析结果的合理性,明确了大连市经济社会可持续发展对水资源的新需求。
(2)如何客观地评估气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响,是大连市水资源可持续利用的重要问题和基础问题。针对这一问题,以近50年的降雨径流资料为基础,应用统计分析方法,分析了大连地区气候变化和人类活动的特征和规律,研究了气候变化和人类活动对大连市水资源量的影响；并以大连市碧流河为典型流域,通过模型模拟其降雨径流过程,揭示了气候变化、人类活动与水资源量之间的关系；同时,结合典型流域不同的气候变化和人类活动情景,评估了未来气候变化对控制断面来水量的影响。
(3)为充分体现外调水在水资源配置中的重要地位和价值,避免外调水按需分配所造成水资源的浪费,本文在区域水资源配置过程中以研究外调水分配问题为基础,建立了水资源合理配置模型。根据外调水分配原则,综合考虑决策者主观意愿以及城市社会、经济、用水现状,来建立外调水分配模型并确定各目标的综合权重进行求解；以区域经济可持续发展、生态环境质量改善和社会健康稳定等为目标,将外调水分配结果作为约束条件之一,综合协调好多水源多用户水资源配置系统关系,建立水资源多目标配置模型,通过模型求解得到大连市水资源合理配置方案。
(4)根据实行最严格水资源管理制度的思想,从用水总量、效率、水质以及社会经济等方面来确定影响水资源可持续利用状态的少量重要指标,建立基本评价体系,并重点分析确定评价水资源可持续利用状态的指标标准；为了方便考虑水资源承载力的动态性、水资源承载力评价标准及指标值的区间性,应用可变模糊集理论及思想,研究基于区间值的水资源可持续利用状态可变模糊评价方法,并评价可变因子集中因子的多种变化情况下大连市各水平年的水资源可持续利用状态。
(5)针对大连市在新跨越发展形势下的水资源开发利用问题和水资源开发利用逐渐从工程建设转向资源科学管理的特点,根据水利部《关于实行最严格水资源管理制度的意见》,建立了大连市水资源管理“三条红线”控制指标和分解指标体系,从用水总量、效率、水质等不同方面提出了相应的总体管理策略。以此为基础,根据大连市水资源配置成果,针对非常规水源和外调水供水不断增加的实际情况,通过分析大连市海水利用、中水回用、跨流域调水工程等开源措施的重要性及现存主要问题,重点研究提出了相应的工程布局和具体管理对策,以保证工程措施的合理开发利用,促进大连市水资源可持续利用,保障经济社会可持续发展。
最后对全文作了总结,对有待进一步研究的问题进行讨论。
Water resources is the irreplaceable natural resources for human survival and development, and also, it is the material basis to achieve sustainable development of social and economic, the strategic economic resources, the organic component of comprehensive national power, and the control factors of the coordinated development between population, economy, society, resource and environment. With the development of economic society, the development idea and mode of Dalian are in ceaseless innovation, the new idea of global development was proposed, and the new mode of the reform of management system was startup, in order to realized the new span of scientific development. This new span, changes the existing water resources development and utilization conditions greatly and made the water resources shortage problems continue to highlight, is to be the major problem which restrict the sustainable development of regional economy and society. Consequently, issues of water resources sustainable utilization in Dalian city are need to study under the situation of new development, in order to meet the new requirements of the new measures on water resources as soon as possible, and support the sustainable development of regional economic and social. This paper analyze the research status and development trend of the development and utilization of water resources at home and abroad, according to the existing problems, select Dalian city as the study area, guided by the theory of sustainable development, analyze the demand of water resources for sustainable development of social economy and the impact of climate change and human activities on water resources. The study of the sustainable use of water resources in Dalian city are in three aspects:rational allocation of water resources, sustainable utilization evaluation of water resources and the corresponding countermeasures for sustainable utilization. In this paper, the main research contents and results are as follows.
(1) The overall goal of the development of social economy in Dalian city are analyzed and forecasted, according to the new idea of global development and the new mode of the reform of management system and national economic and social development plan. Meanwhile, main water-saving control indexes of Dalian was identified, according to the history water use data and social economic index, and fully considering the water-saving measures, limit of high water consumption industries development, implement the total amount control of water consumption strictly. The new demand of water resources for Economic and social sustainable development in Dalian was to make clear, by forecasting the water demand of living, production and ecology in Dalian in the use of Rating method and analyze the result rationality from many aspects such as the total water requirement, water use structure, water index, and so on.
(2) How to evaluate influence of climate change and human activity on water resource objectively is the important and basic problem of sustainable utilization of water resources in Dalian city. To solve this problem, this thesis analyzed the characteristics and laws of Climate Change and Human Activity in Dalian city and researched impact of climate change and human activity on water resource quantity in Dalian city using statistical analysis method based on information of rainfall and runoff of50years. Simulating rainfall runoff process of the Biliu River through model revealed the connection of climate change, human activity and water resources quantity, meanwhile, estimated the influence of climate change for water inflow of control section in future.
(3) In order to reflect the important position and the value of transferring water in water resources allocation fully, also, to avoid the waste of water resource caused by distribution of transferring water according to demands, this paper built a model of water resources rational allocation based on the distribution of transferring water in the process of regional water resources allocation According to the principle of allocation of transferring water and wishful thinking of decision maker and society, economy, current water using situation of the city, we built a model of distribution of transferring water and determine comprehensive weight of every goal and solved it. A multi-objective optimal allocation of Water Resources was developed by aiming at sustainable development of regional economies, improvement of ecological environment and stabilization of social health, making allocation results of transferring water as one of the constraint conditions, coordinating relation of water resources collocation system of various wellhead and multi-user synthetically. We get plan of water resources rational allocation in Dalian city by solving model we established.
(4) According to the ideology of implementing the most strict water resource management system to establish a basic evaluation system by confirming the few key indexes that affect the status of water resource's sustainable using from the total water volume of water use, efficiency, water quality, social economy and other factors then selective analyze and conform the index standard of water resource sustainable using status. To consider the dynamics, evaluation criteria and indexes' regional of water resource carrying capacity convenience, the variable fuzzy set theory and ideology can be used to research the water resource sustainable using variable fuzzy evaluation method that based on the interval value and evaluate the water resource sustainable using status of Dalian city on condition that multiple various factors and centralize factors are changing.
(5) Nowadays, the mode of water resource exploitation and utilization is being changed from project construction into resource scientific management gradually. In the light of water resource exploitation and utilization problems in the new development situation of Dalian city, this paper proposes its water resources management "Three Red Lines" control indexes and their overall management strategy according to "the Opinion About the Most Stringent Water Resources Management System" from the Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. And it will be implemented from the aspect of total water use, efficiency and water quality. Aiming at water resources allocation achievements of Dalian, water supply goals of the projects about seawater utilization, reclaimed water reusing and inter-basin water transfer is established in the situation of using non-conventional water resource and transferred water on a large scale. And the relevant project distributions and concrete management countermeasures are researched emphatically. These research results are expected to guarantee the rational exploitation and utilization of structural-measures, to promote water resource sustainable utilization and to assure economy and society sustainable development of Dalian city.
Finally, the conclusions are draw and further problems in this study are discussed.
引文
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