潜艇航行安全的海洋战场环境评估方法研究
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摘要
对海洋的开发和利用是21世纪里一项非常重要的任务，此任务要依靠强大的海军力量，且海军的活动范围是海洋战场环境。海洋战场环境评估是海洋战场环境研究的一部分，而且潜艇是重要的水下作战平台，具有隐蔽性等很多优点，是海军重要的海上突击力量，因此评估海洋环境对潜艇作战效能的影响是现代作战保障中不可或缺的一环。潜艇航行安全是潜艇作战的基础，潜艇航行安全的海洋战场环境评估可以为有效选择航线、确定海上待机地域提供必要的科学依据。然而，目前关于潜艇航行安全的海洋战场环境评估的研究尚不成熟，尚没有系统、正规、合理的评估体系，已经不适应现代战争保障的需要。建立、健全一套完整的潜艇航行安全的海洋战场环境评估决策保障方法体系有重要的学术意义和应用价值。本文分析了对潜艇航行安全有影响的各种因素，确定潜艇航行安全性以及隐蔽性的评估指标集，应用数学方法对其进行评估。主要工作可概括如下：
1、确定潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性的评估指标集。分析各种因素对潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性的影响，在此基础上确定了指标集，并根据指标集建立了潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性评估指标体系。
2、基于改进超标权的模糊综合评估。本文在潜艇航行安全性评估中，引入超标权，改进超标权由隶属度确定，以克服原超标权确定方法的缺点，确定扎德算子为与超标权相匹配的模糊合成算子。并修改权重向量以防评估指标过多时各个权重太小导致的模糊合成时取小运算只取权重的情况出现。
3、指数标度法确定权重。利用层次分析法确定潜艇航行隐蔽性评估指标的权重，针对互反型标度中性质较优的指数标度，对重要性等级进行扩展，给出重要性比率的取值范围，并提出了构造完全一致的感觉判断矩阵，且将保持初始感觉判断矩阵信息的问题转化为一个二次规划问题，最后给出了其计算指标权重的算法，此算法计算简单且更符合实际。
4、潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性的评估。将评估等级都分为六级，隶属度函数均采用均匀划分的梯度函数，并给出了所有指标的取值范围。应用基于改进超标权的模糊综合评估法对潜艇航行的安全性进行评估；采用基于指数标度法的层次分析法和二级模糊综合评估法对潜艇的隐蔽性进行评估，模糊合成采用加权平均算子；最后通过实例演示潜艇航行的安全性和隐蔽性评估，演示结果说明本文提出的评估方法更细致精确。
5、模糊映射下隶属度函数的传递以及潜艇隐蔽性评估的新思路。首先在一元模糊反映射存在一对多的情况下，给出了隶属度函数的一种求取算法，用以完善模糊映射为一元函数时的模糊性传递；其次，在一定假设条件下，提出了一般多元函数的模糊性传递原理，并给出证明，根据此原理给出了映射后隶属度函数的显式表达式，方便计算；然后，借鉴边际概率分布的计算公式，针对多元隶属度函数已知的情形，给出了求取单个变量的隶属度函数公式，并进行了相应证明，便于实际应用和计算。最后，基于声纳搜潜概率公式，提出将隶属度函数的传递应用于潜艇隐蔽性评估。
本文的研究既是海洋战场环境评估的内容，又是模糊综合评估以及层次分析法的应用和理论的研究，利用本文研究的方法对潜艇航行安全的海洋战场环境进行评估，为决策者的决策提供依据。
In the21century, it is a key task to exploit and utilize the ocean, which depends on astrong navy. The activity range of the navy is the ocean battlefield environment. The oceanbattlefield environment assessment is one part of the study on the marine battlefieldenvironment. Additionally, submarine with concealment and many other advantages, is animportant platform for underwater warfare, and it is an important offshore assault power fornavy as well. As a result, it’s a crucial factor to assess how the marine environment hasimpact on the submarine combat capability. Moreover, the submarine navigation safety is thebase of submarine combat. The marine environment assessment for submarine navigationsafety can provide necessary scientific foundation for effective route selection and stand-byregion determination. However, the study of the marine battlefield environment assessment ofsubmarine navigation safety still needs more efforts. There is no systematic, formal andrational evaluation system until so far. Thus, it can't satisfy the demands of the modernwarfare security. It has not only important academic value but also significance of applicationto establish a complete marine battlefield environment assessment system for submarinenavigation safety. In this thesis, how the various factors infect the submarine navigationsafety is analyzed, and the evaluation index systems for submarine navigation safety andconcealment are established. Submarine navigation safety and concealment are evaluated bymathematical methods. The main works can be summarized as follows:
Firstly, the evaluation index systems for submarine navigation safety and concealmentare established, and how the various factors have impact on submarine navigation safety andconcealment is analyzed. Then the indicators are determined, and the evaluation indexsystems for submarine navigation safety and concealment are established based on theseindicators.
Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on improved super-standard weightis proposed. In this thesis, the super-standard weight is introduced into the assessment ofsubmarine navigation safety. According the problems of the present super-standard weightdetermination methods, a new method is proposed where the super-standard weight isdetermined by membership; The Zadeh operator is decided as the fuzzy composite operatormatched with super-standard weight. The weight vector is improved in case that just theweight is taken when the fuzzy composite takes the min operation between the weight vectorand membership matrix, because when there are many evaluation indexes, the weight vector will be very small.
Thirdly, weights are determined by index scale. The index weights of submarinenavigation concealment are determined by Analyzed Hierarchy Process (AHP). According tothe index scale which is better in reciprocal scales, the importance ranks are extended, and thevalue range of importance ratio is given; It is proposed to construct totally consistent sensecomparison matrix, and keeping the original information of sense comparison matrix istransformed into a quadratic programming problem. Finally, an algorithm to calculate theindex weight is proposed. This algorithm needs small calculation and fits the actual situation.
Fourthly, submarine navigation safety and concealment are assessed. The evaluationgrades are devided into six grades. All membership functions are determined by uniformlydevided gradient function. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on improvedsuper-standard weight is taken to evaluate the submarine navigation safety; AHP based onindex scale and two-tier fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are taken to evaluate thesubmarine navigation concealment. The fuzzy synthesis operator adopts weighted averageoperator. Finally, examples demonstrate the assessment process of submarine navigationsafety and concealment. Demonsrated results show that the proposed assessment method ismore accurate.
Finally, transmission of membership function under fuzzy mapping and a new idea ofsubmarine concealment evaluation are discussed. At first when the simple fuzzy inversemapping is one-to-many, an algorithm to calculate membership function is given forimproving the transmission of fuzziness. Moreover, under certain assumptions, the fuzzytransmission theorem of general multivariable function is proposed and proved. Based on thisprinciple, the explicit expression of membership function after mapping can be given forconvenient calculation. Then, using calculation formula of marginal probability for reference,if the multivariable membership function is given, one single variable membership functionwill be calculated, and the corresponding proof is given too. This formula is convenient forpractical application and calculation. At last, based on the probability formula of sonarsearching submarine, it is proposed that to evaluate the submarine concealment by using thetransmission of membership function.
The study in this thesis is not only the content of marine battlefield environmentalassessment, but also the application and theoretical research of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and AHP. The marine environment assessment for the submarine navigation safetyin this thesis provides a criterion to decision-makers for decision making.
1、确定潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性的评估指标集。分析各种因素对潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性的影响，在此基础上确定了指标集，并根据指标集建立了潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性评估指标体系。
2、基于改进超标权的模糊综合评估。本文在潜艇航行安全性评估中，引入超标权，改进超标权由隶属度确定，以克服原超标权确定方法的缺点，确定扎德算子为与超标权相匹配的模糊合成算子。并修改权重向量以防评估指标过多时各个权重太小导致的模糊合成时取小运算只取权重的情况出现。
3、指数标度法确定权重。利用层次分析法确定潜艇航行隐蔽性评估指标的权重，针对互反型标度中性质较优的指数标度，对重要性等级进行扩展，给出重要性比率的取值范围，并提出了构造完全一致的感觉判断矩阵，且将保持初始感觉判断矩阵信息的问题转化为一个二次规划问题，最后给出了其计算指标权重的算法，此算法计算简单且更符合实际。
4、潜艇航行的安全性以及隐蔽性的评估。将评估等级都分为六级，隶属度函数均采用均匀划分的梯度函数，并给出了所有指标的取值范围。应用基于改进超标权的模糊综合评估法对潜艇航行的安全性进行评估；采用基于指数标度法的层次分析法和二级模糊综合评估法对潜艇的隐蔽性进行评估，模糊合成采用加权平均算子；最后通过实例演示潜艇航行的安全性和隐蔽性评估，演示结果说明本文提出的评估方法更细致精确。
5、模糊映射下隶属度函数的传递以及潜艇隐蔽性评估的新思路。首先在一元模糊反映射存在一对多的情况下，给出了隶属度函数的一种求取算法，用以完善模糊映射为一元函数时的模糊性传递；其次，在一定假设条件下，提出了一般多元函数的模糊性传递原理，并给出证明，根据此原理给出了映射后隶属度函数的显式表达式，方便计算；然后，借鉴边际概率分布的计算公式，针对多元隶属度函数已知的情形，给出了求取单个变量的隶属度函数公式，并进行了相应证明，便于实际应用和计算。最后，基于声纳搜潜概率公式，提出将隶属度函数的传递应用于潜艇隐蔽性评估。
本文的研究既是海洋战场环境评估的内容，又是模糊综合评估以及层次分析法的应用和理论的研究，利用本文研究的方法对潜艇航行安全的海洋战场环境进行评估，为决策者的决策提供依据。
In the21century, it is a key task to exploit and utilize the ocean, which depends on astrong navy. The activity range of the navy is the ocean battlefield environment. The oceanbattlefield environment assessment is one part of the study on the marine battlefieldenvironment. Additionally, submarine with concealment and many other advantages, is animportant platform for underwater warfare, and it is an important offshore assault power fornavy as well. As a result, it’s a crucial factor to assess how the marine environment hasimpact on the submarine combat capability. Moreover, the submarine navigation safety is thebase of submarine combat. The marine environment assessment for submarine navigationsafety can provide necessary scientific foundation for effective route selection and stand-byregion determination. However, the study of the marine battlefield environment assessment ofsubmarine navigation safety still needs more efforts. There is no systematic, formal andrational evaluation system until so far. Thus, it can't satisfy the demands of the modernwarfare security. It has not only important academic value but also significance of applicationto establish a complete marine battlefield environment assessment system for submarinenavigation safety. In this thesis, how the various factors infect the submarine navigationsafety is analyzed, and the evaluation index systems for submarine navigation safety andconcealment are established. Submarine navigation safety and concealment are evaluated bymathematical methods. The main works can be summarized as follows:
Firstly, the evaluation index systems for submarine navigation safety and concealmentare established, and how the various factors have impact on submarine navigation safety andconcealment is analyzed. Then the indicators are determined, and the evaluation indexsystems for submarine navigation safety and concealment are established based on theseindicators.
Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on improved super-standard weightis proposed. In this thesis, the super-standard weight is introduced into the assessment ofsubmarine navigation safety. According the problems of the present super-standard weightdetermination methods, a new method is proposed where the super-standard weight isdetermined by membership; The Zadeh operator is decided as the fuzzy composite operatormatched with super-standard weight. The weight vector is improved in case that just theweight is taken when the fuzzy composite takes the min operation between the weight vectorand membership matrix, because when there are many evaluation indexes, the weight vector will be very small.
Thirdly, weights are determined by index scale. The index weights of submarinenavigation concealment are determined by Analyzed Hierarchy Process (AHP). According tothe index scale which is better in reciprocal scales, the importance ranks are extended, and thevalue range of importance ratio is given; It is proposed to construct totally consistent sensecomparison matrix, and keeping the original information of sense comparison matrix istransformed into a quadratic programming problem. Finally, an algorithm to calculate theindex weight is proposed. This algorithm needs small calculation and fits the actual situation.
Fourthly, submarine navigation safety and concealment are assessed. The evaluationgrades are devided into six grades. All membership functions are determined by uniformlydevided gradient function. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on improvedsuper-standard weight is taken to evaluate the submarine navigation safety; AHP based onindex scale and two-tier fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are taken to evaluate thesubmarine navigation concealment. The fuzzy synthesis operator adopts weighted averageoperator. Finally, examples demonstrate the assessment process of submarine navigationsafety and concealment. Demonsrated results show that the proposed assessment method ismore accurate.
Finally, transmission of membership function under fuzzy mapping and a new idea ofsubmarine concealment evaluation are discussed. At first when the simple fuzzy inversemapping is one-to-many, an algorithm to calculate membership function is given forimproving the transmission of fuzziness. Moreover, under certain assumptions, the fuzzytransmission theorem of general multivariable function is proposed and proved. Based on thisprinciple, the explicit expression of membership function after mapping can be given forconvenient calculation. Then, using calculation formula of marginal probability for reference,if the multivariable membership function is given, one single variable membership functionwill be calculated, and the corresponding proof is given too. This formula is convenient forpractical application and calculation. At last, based on the probability formula of sonarsearching submarine, it is proposed that to evaluate the submarine concealment by using thetransmission of membership function.
The study in this thesis is not only the content of marine battlefield environmentalassessment, but also the application and theoretical research of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and AHP. The marine environment assessment for the submarine navigation safetyin this thesis provides a criterion to decision-makers for decision making.
引文
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