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矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展机理及评价研究
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摘要
近年来,我国经济社会保持了良好的发展态势,但同时也面临着资源约束趋紧、环境污染严重、生态系统退化等严峻形势。特别是在国民经济发展中扮演着重要角色的矿产资源密集型区域,由于其自身发展所倚重的矿产资源具有不可再生性和可耗竭性,这些区域多数都面临着资源趋于枯竭甚至生存危机的局面。
     随着矿产资源的逐渐枯竭及相关资源产业的逐渐衰退,矿产资源密集型区域不同程度地出现了较为典型的经济、社会以及生态环境等方面的问题,诸多问题的出现,使得这些区域的持续健康发展受到一定的影响。如何调整发展策略,在发展中逐步解决这些问题,进而探索出一条可持续发展之路,推动矿产资源密集型区域绿色转型,实现资源节约、环境友好的新型可持续发展模式,成为全社会广泛关注的紧迫而重要的现实课题。
     绿色发展的本质是通过减少对能源资源的过度消耗,加强环境保护和生态治理,追求经济、社会、生态全面协调可持续发展。面对日趋强化的资源环境约束,国家“十二五”规划纲要明确提出要坚持绿色发展,综合运用多种手段,增强可持续发展能力,充分彰显了政府坚定走绿色发展之路的决心和信心。当下,研究并探索建立一套有利于推动矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展的综合评价指标体系,进而动态评价矿产资源密集型区域的绿色发展能力,显得必要而迫切。
     基于此,本文在系统总结国内外相关研究成果的基础上,综合运用可持续发展理论、系统科学理论、自组织理论等多学科理论,初步界定了矿产资源密集型区域及其绿色发展的内涵,接着对矿产资源密集型区域的绿色发展机理进行了分析,并结合矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标体系的构建目标和原则,从定性角度初步构建了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标体系,并进一步用定量方法对指标进行筛选,然后构建了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展评价的熵权系数评价模型以及指标预测模型,并结合河南嵩县进行了实证研究,最后提出了相应的保障措施。
     本文的主要研究工作及结论如下:
     (1)界定了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展的内涵,明确了矿产资源密集型区域的发展目标及方向。矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展是以绿色发展理念为指导,立足于当前科技水平和经济社会发展实际,在资源环境承载力允许范围内,通过改变企业、产业及政府等主体的行为,实现企业绿色运营、产业绿色重构和政府绿色管理,形成社会和谐美好、经济健康发展、技术创新进步、资源节约利用、生态环境友好的新型可持续发展模式。
     (2)建立了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展机理分析三力模型。矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展系统模型由动力系统、推力系统和效力系统共同构成。动力系统解决的是矿产资源密集型区域为何进行绿色发展的问题,它由社会、经济、技术、资源、环境等五大因素组成。推力系统解决的是矿产资源密集型区域如何进行绿色发展的问题,涉及企业、产业、政府等三大主体。效力系统解决的是矿产资源密集型区域进行绿色发展要达到何种程度的问题,也即绿色发展的效果度量问题,是对上述五大因素和三大主体的综合考察反馈。
     (3)建立了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标体系。以矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标体系构建的目标和原则为指导,从定性角度初步海选了127个二级指标,其中包括社会、经济、技术、资源、环境等五大因素以及企业、产业、政府等三大主体的各个层面,并结合研究区域实际,按照指标筛选流程,从定量方面构建了8个一级指标、20个子类指标、79个二级指标组成的嵩县绿色发展综合评价指标体系。
     (4)构建了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价的熵权系数评价模型。借鉴基于主分量分析法、模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、协调度评价法、多目标综合评价法、熵权系数法等区域可持续发展评价模型,构建了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价的熵权系数评价模型,并介绍了评价过程。
     (5)构建了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标的预测模型。通过五个常用模型的计算,发现线性模型在所有指标的拟合过程中效果最好,于是本文选用其作为矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标的预测模型。
     (6)实证评价了嵩县绿色发展能力,预测了各指标10年后的数据。通过本文构建的矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价的熵权系数评价模型,结合指标筛选后的综合评价指标体系,对嵩县的区域绿色发展能力进行了实证研究。结果表明,除了资源指标,嵩县其他7项指标都表现出较强或很强的绿色发展能力。
     (7)提出了相应的保障措施。本文从五大动力系统因素和三大推力主体角度分别就社会、经济、科教、资源、环境、企业、产业、政府等八个方面提出了相关保障措施,即:社会因素方面,要充分调动社会公众参与绿色发展的主动性,改善人口结构,提高居民生活质量,扩大社会保障覆盖面;经济因素方面,以绿色经济理念为指导,实现矿产资源密集型区域经济的可持续发展,注重经济效率,改善经济结构;科教因素方面,树立“科技引领经济、科技支撑发展”的指导思想,加大科技普及力度,调整教育结构,提高教育水平;资源因素方面,树立资源节约,高效利用的理念,控制资源总量,合理开发资源;环境因素方面,大力推广新工艺,加大环境污染治理力度,加强生态环境保护,完善矿产资源开发利用生态恢复补偿机制;企业主体角度,要强化企业节能减排主体地位,建立绿色企业运营制度,增强企业自主创新能力;产业主体角度,构建绿色产业体系,加快服务业市场建设,开展地质旅游项目;政府主体角度,实施绿色管理,营造绿色发展环境,大力发展社会事业,加快推动城镇化进程。
     本文可能的创新点如下:
     (1)初步建立了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展机理分析三力模型。矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展系统模型由动力系统、推力系统和效力系统共同构成。动力系统解决的是矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展的原因问题,推力系统解决的是矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展该如何做的问题,效力系统解决的是矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展达到什么程度的问题。
     (2)初步建立了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标体系。以矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价指标体系构建的目标和原则为指导,首先从定性的角度海选指标,然后根据建立的指标筛选流程图,从定量方面筛选构建研究区域的绿色发展综合评价指标体系。
     (3)初步构建了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价的熵权系数评价模型。借鉴模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、协调度评价法、多目标综合评价法、熵权系数法等区域可持续发展评价模型,初步构建了矿产资源密集型区域绿色发展综合评价的熵权系数评价模型,并介绍了评价过程。
In recent years, China's economy and society have maintained a good momentum of development, but also facing tight resource constraints, and serious environmental pollution, ecosystem degradation grim situations. As the major supplier of energy and raw materials, mineral resource-intensive regions have been important for the national economy, which play an important supporting role in the sustained and rapid development of the national economy.
     However, as time goes on, these regions are prone to exhausted or even to die out due to the natural of the mineral resources such as non-renewable and easily exhaustible. With the gradually exhaustion of the resource and the recession of the leading industry, a serious of economic and social issues has emerged in these regions and the issues has inevitably affect the further development. How to avoid the die out of resource and how to explore a sustainable way for the further development have arose the widely concern among the society. Whether these regions can success in sustainable development does have a tight connect with the development of the nation and the stability of the society. It has become a emergent and significant issue that how to optimize the strategies of the development in order to promote the sustainable development.
     The essence of green development is the pursuit of comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development of economy, society and ecology by reducing the excessive consumption of energy resources and strengthening environmental protection and ecological management. Faced of increasingly constraints of resources and environment, the national "12th Five-Year Plan" has been made to adhere to green development, focus on energy conservation and emission reduction, improve the incentive and restraint mechanisms, accelerate the construction of resource-saving and environment-friendly production methods and consumption patterns, enhance the capacity of sustainable development, and improve the level of ecological civilization. This has fully demonstrated the determination of persisting in the path of green development. It is necessary and urgent to explore a comprehensive evaluation index system which is conducive to promote the green development in mineral resource-intensive regions, as well as the vital foundation to assess dynamically the capacity of green development in mineral resource-intensive regions.
     Based on the above-mentioned situation, starting from the research of these regions and summarized the researching result of both domestic and foreign countries, making use of sustainable development theory, system theory, self-organization theory, this paper initially defines the mineral resource-intensive region and its green development, and then this paper has carried on the analysis to the mineral resource-intensive regional green development mechanism. And also combined with the construction of goal and the principle of green development for mineral resource-intensive regions, comprehensive evaluation of the mineral resource-intensive regional green development is constructed from a qualitative point of view system. Followed by a further screening for the indicators with quantitative method, this paper builds a mineral resource-intensive region of green development evaluation entropy coefficient evaluation model as well as indicators of predictive models,with the empirical study of Song Xian County, finally puts forward corresponding safeguard measures.
     The main research work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:
     (1)It defines the green development of mineral resource-intensive regions' content and clears the development goal and direction of the mineral resource-intensive regions. The green development of the mineral resource-intensive regions guided as green development idea, based on nowadays economic society's development and resources environment's tolerance. Through changing the operation systems of companies, constitution of industry and government's management, to achieve companies'green operation, refactoring green industry and government's green management, it turns traditional black economy into green economy, develops a sustainable model of development of harmonious society, economic growth, technological progress, resource conservation and friendly environment.
     (2)It establishes the green development of the mineral resource-intensive regions mechanism analysis three-force model. This model is made up of dynamical system, pushing system and effective system. Dynamical system solves the cause of the green development of the intensive mineral resources, and it is made up of five factors which are society subsystem, economic subsystem, technical subsystem, resource subsystem and environment subsystem. Pushing system deals how to do the green development of the intensive mineral resources, and it relates to company, industry and government. Efficacy or effective system is dealing how far could the green development of the intensive mineral resources could go. And effective system is a integrated survey of the five factors and three main subjects mentioned above.
     (3)It establishes the comprehensive assessment index system of the green development of mineral resource-intensive regions. It was guided as the green development of the intensive mineral resources' goal and principle, and preliminary was choosed127secondary indexes from qualitative analysis angle which cover five factors as social, economy, science and education, resource and environment and three main subjects like company, industry and government. Besides that, it unites the reality of Song Xian County and selects the process according to the indexes, establishes8first-level indexes,20subclass indexes and79secondary indexes of Song Xian County green development comprehensive evaluation from quantitative aspect.
     (4)It establishes the green development of mineral resource-intensive regions' comprehensive evaluation's entropy weight coefficient model. Drawn on regional sustainable development evaluation model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, AHP, coordination degree evaluation method, multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method, entropy weight coefficient method, we have initially established a entropy coefficient evaluation model of comprehensive evaluation of mineral resource-intensive regions'green development and also described the evaluation process.
     (5) It builds a forecast model for the synthetic assess of the mineral resource-intensive regions.According to the calculation of five models, we find out the linear model present the best result. Therefore, we choose it as the model of the synthetic assessing of the mineral resource-intensive regions.
     (6) It empirically evaluates the green development of Song Xian County and forecasts the index after10years.Through the entropy coefficient evaluation model of the comprehensive evaluation of the mineral resource-intensive regions of green development, this paper studied on the green development ability of Song Xian County.The results suggested that except the resource indicator, the other7indicators in Song Xian County show a strong ability of the green development.
     (7) It proposes some relative suggestions. This paper makes suggestions from the aspect of five driving force and three pushing factors. It includes eight aspects as society, economy, education, resource, environment, enterprise, industry and government. To begin with, in social aspect, we need to mobilize the public activity to make them participant in and optimize the population structure to improve people's living condition, and broaden the cover up of the social security, put emphasis on the economic efficiency. Secondly, in educational aspect, we should establish guiding thoughts as "science lead economy, science support development to strengthen the popular of science, to optimize the educational structure, to promote the educational level.In resource aspect, we should establish the idea of improve the efficiency of utilizing resource and control the total amount of resource to develop the resource rationally. As to the environmental aspect, we should give great impetus to the new methods and strengthen the rules to manage the environmental pollution. At the same time, we should perfect the compensation mechanism for the exploration of the resource. As to the aspect of the enterprise, we should strengthen the important position of energy conservation and emission reduction. We should build the environmentally friendly operating regulation to highlight the creativity of each company. As to the aspect of the industry, we should establish the green production system and accelerate the building of service industry and launch the geology travel project at the same time.Finally,as to the aspect of the government, they should implement green management, to form a green environment and develop public industry so as to boost the development of rural countries.
     The innovation of this paper may be as follows:
     (1)The three-force model which describes mineral resource-intensive regions' green development mechanism has been established initially. The model consists of the power system, thrust system and the effectiveness of the system. Power system is to solve the problem of mineral resource-intensive regions of green development. The thrust system is to solve the problem of what to do for the green development of mineral resource-intensive regions. The effectiveness of the system is to solve the green development of mineral resource-intensive regions to what extent problems.
     (2) A comprehensive evaluation index system of mineral resource-intensive regions has been established. Based on objectives and principles of building comprehensive evaluation index system of green development of mineral resource-intensive regions, we firstly select indicators from the qualitative point of view. Then, according to flowchart of indicators, we construct the index system from the quantitative aspects.
     (3) The entropy coefficient evaluation model of the comprehensive evaluation of the mineral resource-intensive regions of green development has been established. Drawn on regional sustainable development evaluation model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, AHP, coordination degree evaluation method, multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method, entropy weight coefficient method, we have initially established a entropy coefficient evaluation model of comprehensive evaluation of mineral resource-intensive regions' green development and also described the evaluation process.
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