中国农产品价格波动的影响因素及政府调控研究
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摘要
农产品不仅是人们生活中最重要的必需品,也是经济发展所需的重要工业原料。农产品价格是农业发展乃至国民经济运行的重要经济变量。农产品价格波动既影响到人们的生活质量,又影响了农民的切身利益。因此,对农产品价格波动的研究具有重要的理论意义。
近年来,世界范围内的农产品价格特别是粮食价格呈上涨趋势。自2006年以来,中国粮食价格以及猪肉,食用油,蔬菜的价格也不断上涨。2008年国际金融危机爆发,农产品价格受此影响出现大幅下降,直到2009年上半年农产品价格才逐渐走平。随后农产品价格又进入了新一轮波动周期。此轮农产品价格上涨呈整体上涨态势,不仅有粮食作物,还有农副食品的价格飞涨；不仅涉及到大宗商品,也涉及到小宗农产品的价格冲高。基于此背景,研究中国农产品价格波动的影响因素及政府调控问题具有重要的现实意义。
通过本论文的研究主要回答三个问题：第一,近年来中国农产品价格波动的特征怎样；第二,为什么农产品价格波动越来越频繁；第三,政府应该如何调控农产品价格波动。要回答这些问题,论文在相关文献和价格理论的基础上,对农产品价格波动进行了理论分析。分析结果表明,农业生产资料价格波动,农户及营销企业的供给价格弹性、营销企业和消费者的零售价格弹性,以及营销产品与农产品之间的替代弹性等因素影响了农产品价格的波动状况。在理论分析基础之上,论文重点进行了实证研究。首先,研究农产品价格波动的特征。通过分析发现,近年来我国农产品价格波动的周期特征表现为波动周期缩短,波动频率加快。农产品价格波动的结构特征明显,主要受到生猪、棉花、大豆、稻谷等主要农产品价格波动的影响。其中大豆、生猪和稻谷价格波动具有显著的集聚性特征,同时稻谷价格波动具有明显的非对称性特征。其次,解释我国农产品价格波动的原因。论文从纵向和横向两个角度进行了实证分析。一方面,从农业产业链角度重点考察农产品价格体系内部的相互关系和影响程度。纵向研究表明：在农产品价格传递过程中,需求拉动效应强于供给推动效应,且持续时间要长。对于农产品批发价格而言,主要受到其自身价格和生产资料价格的影响；对于食品零售价格而言,受到上游供给价格的影响明显,但影响时间较为短暂。同时,农业产业链中的市场联结程度也会影响到农产品价格的纵向传递效果。紧密型市场联结,比如肉类产业链和大豆产业链表现为“产权综合一体化”的市场联结,其价格传递具有非对称性特征。而稻谷产业链和棉花产业链不具有非对称价格传递特征。另一方面,从市场供求的角度分析农产品价格波动的影响因素。研究发现影响我国农产品供给量的主要因素是农产品成本、财政投入以及农产品当期价格；影响农产品需求量的主要因素比较复杂,其中人口数量、食品出口量、零售价格、货币供给量和人民币汇率对农产品的需求量影响显著。在市场供求均衡条件下,农产品价格受到当期供求关系的影响并不显著,主要受到前一期供给量的影响和前两期需求量的影响。此外,论文还验证了我国农产品市场供求与价格之间形成了发散型的蛛网类型。最后,论文在上述研究成果的基础上,分析了我国农产品价格波动对宏观经济的影响主要表现为通货膨胀效应明显,财富效应与供给效应不明显,从而提出了政府调控农产品价格波动的理论框架和调控目标,以及政府应从供给管理、需求引导和农产品市场机制建设等方面进一步完善农产品价格调控政策体系的建议。
Agricultural products are not only the most important necessities of the people's lives, but also the crucial industrial raw materials for economic development. The prices of agricultural products are the key economic variables for agricultural development and even the national economy conduction. Fluctuations of agricultural products prices not only affect the quality of people's lives, but also affect the vital interests of the farmers. Therefore, the study of the fluctuations in prices of agricultural products has important theoretical significance.
In recent years, prices of agricultural products in the worldwide, especially grain prices showed a rising trend. Since2006, grain prices as well as the price of pork, edible oil, and vegetables have been rising. International financial crisis began in2008, agricultural prices appear sharp decline. Prices of agricultural products gradually had gone flat until the first half of2009. However, the prices of agricultural products had entered a new round of volatility cycle from the second half of2009. Current round of agricultural prices was the overall rising trend, not only the grain crops but also agro-food prices are soaring; Raising prices not only involve the commodity, also careen agricultural. Based on this background, the research on the characteristics of fluctuations in prices of agricultural products in China, and the effect factors of price fluctuations has important practical significance.
This thesis is to answer three questions:the first question is how fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products in China; the second question is what are the main effect factors of the fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products; What is the impact degree of these factors on the fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products; the third question is how government stabilize the prices of agricultural products. Firstly, research on fluctuations characteristics of agricultural products prices shows that fluctuations cycles speed up and frequency. Fluctuations of agricultural products prices are raised by price fluctuations of the pigs, cotton, soybeans, rice and other major agricultural. Moreover, Soybeans, pigs and rice price volatility have a significant gathering, and fluctuations in the increasingly weakened, but rice price volatility has a significant asymmetry. Secondly, in order to better analysis of effect factors on agricultural prices fluctuations, the paper applies specification analysis and empirical analysis methods to research. Primarily, theoretical analysis of the formation mechanism of the prices of agricultural products, it shows that the price fluctuations of agricultural production, the supply price elasticity of farmers and marketing enterprises, the retail price elasticity of marketing businesses and consumers, as well as the alternative elasticity between marketing products and agricultural products and other factors are influencing factors on the prices of agricultural products. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the paper conducts the empirical analysis from two perspectives. One is from the agricultural industry chain perspective to study the relationship and impact among the prices of agricultural products. The study found that demand-pull effect strength is stronger than supply-driven effect in vertical price transfer process, and former lasts much longer. For wholesale price of agricultural products, it mainly impacted by prices of its own and production materials; for food retail price, it is impacted by upstream supply price significantly in a relatively short time. Meanwhile, the market association degree in agricultural industrial chain can also affect the vertical pass effect of the agricultural products prices. The compact vertical market links, such as the market of meat products and soy products market of "property rights comprehensive integration", its price transmission has asymmetric price transmission characteristics. The product chain of rice and cotton products chain does not have the asymmetric price transmission characteristics. On the other hand, from the horizontal market supply and demand point of view, empirical research founds that the main factors affecting the supply of agricultural products are the cost of agricultural products, financial investment, as well as the current prices of agricultural products. Affecting agricultural demand is more complex, it includes population, food exports retail prices, money supply, and the RMB exchange rate etc. In the market equilibrium conditions, the prices of agricultural products is not significantly influenced by the current supply and demand, but mainly influenced by the impact of previous supply and first two demands. In addition, the paper also verifies the divergent cobweb type of agricultural products market in China. Finally, on the basis of the above study, the paper puts forward a theoretical framework and target for the regulation of agricultural products prices fluctuation in China. Government should be conducted by regulation strategy to manage agricultural product market supply and demand management, and to construct agricultural market mechanisms so as to further improve the price regulation policy system of agricultural products.
近年来,世界范围内的农产品价格特别是粮食价格呈上涨趋势。自2006年以来,中国粮食价格以及猪肉,食用油,蔬菜的价格也不断上涨。2008年国际金融危机爆发,农产品价格受此影响出现大幅下降,直到2009年上半年农产品价格才逐渐走平。随后农产品价格又进入了新一轮波动周期。此轮农产品价格上涨呈整体上涨态势,不仅有粮食作物,还有农副食品的价格飞涨；不仅涉及到大宗商品,也涉及到小宗农产品的价格冲高。基于此背景,研究中国农产品价格波动的影响因素及政府调控问题具有重要的现实意义。
通过本论文的研究主要回答三个问题：第一,近年来中国农产品价格波动的特征怎样；第二,为什么农产品价格波动越来越频繁；第三,政府应该如何调控农产品价格波动。要回答这些问题,论文在相关文献和价格理论的基础上,对农产品价格波动进行了理论分析。分析结果表明,农业生产资料价格波动,农户及营销企业的供给价格弹性、营销企业和消费者的零售价格弹性,以及营销产品与农产品之间的替代弹性等因素影响了农产品价格的波动状况。在理论分析基础之上,论文重点进行了实证研究。首先,研究农产品价格波动的特征。通过分析发现,近年来我国农产品价格波动的周期特征表现为波动周期缩短,波动频率加快。农产品价格波动的结构特征明显,主要受到生猪、棉花、大豆、稻谷等主要农产品价格波动的影响。其中大豆、生猪和稻谷价格波动具有显著的集聚性特征,同时稻谷价格波动具有明显的非对称性特征。其次,解释我国农产品价格波动的原因。论文从纵向和横向两个角度进行了实证分析。一方面,从农业产业链角度重点考察农产品价格体系内部的相互关系和影响程度。纵向研究表明：在农产品价格传递过程中,需求拉动效应强于供给推动效应,且持续时间要长。对于农产品批发价格而言,主要受到其自身价格和生产资料价格的影响；对于食品零售价格而言,受到上游供给价格的影响明显,但影响时间较为短暂。同时,农业产业链中的市场联结程度也会影响到农产品价格的纵向传递效果。紧密型市场联结,比如肉类产业链和大豆产业链表现为“产权综合一体化”的市场联结,其价格传递具有非对称性特征。而稻谷产业链和棉花产业链不具有非对称价格传递特征。另一方面,从市场供求的角度分析农产品价格波动的影响因素。研究发现影响我国农产品供给量的主要因素是农产品成本、财政投入以及农产品当期价格；影响农产品需求量的主要因素比较复杂,其中人口数量、食品出口量、零售价格、货币供给量和人民币汇率对农产品的需求量影响显著。在市场供求均衡条件下,农产品价格受到当期供求关系的影响并不显著,主要受到前一期供给量的影响和前两期需求量的影响。此外,论文还验证了我国农产品市场供求与价格之间形成了发散型的蛛网类型。最后,论文在上述研究成果的基础上,分析了我国农产品价格波动对宏观经济的影响主要表现为通货膨胀效应明显,财富效应与供给效应不明显,从而提出了政府调控农产品价格波动的理论框架和调控目标,以及政府应从供给管理、需求引导和农产品市场机制建设等方面进一步完善农产品价格调控政策体系的建议。
Agricultural products are not only the most important necessities of the people's lives, but also the crucial industrial raw materials for economic development. The prices of agricultural products are the key economic variables for agricultural development and even the national economy conduction. Fluctuations of agricultural products prices not only affect the quality of people's lives, but also affect the vital interests of the farmers. Therefore, the study of the fluctuations in prices of agricultural products has important theoretical significance.
In recent years, prices of agricultural products in the worldwide, especially grain prices showed a rising trend. Since2006, grain prices as well as the price of pork, edible oil, and vegetables have been rising. International financial crisis began in2008, agricultural prices appear sharp decline. Prices of agricultural products gradually had gone flat until the first half of2009. However, the prices of agricultural products had entered a new round of volatility cycle from the second half of2009. Current round of agricultural prices was the overall rising trend, not only the grain crops but also agro-food prices are soaring; Raising prices not only involve the commodity, also careen agricultural. Based on this background, the research on the characteristics of fluctuations in prices of agricultural products in China, and the effect factors of price fluctuations has important practical significance.
This thesis is to answer three questions:the first question is how fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products in China; the second question is what are the main effect factors of the fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products; What is the impact degree of these factors on the fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products; the third question is how government stabilize the prices of agricultural products. Firstly, research on fluctuations characteristics of agricultural products prices shows that fluctuations cycles speed up and frequency. Fluctuations of agricultural products prices are raised by price fluctuations of the pigs, cotton, soybeans, rice and other major agricultural. Moreover, Soybeans, pigs and rice price volatility have a significant gathering, and fluctuations in the increasingly weakened, but rice price volatility has a significant asymmetry. Secondly, in order to better analysis of effect factors on agricultural prices fluctuations, the paper applies specification analysis and empirical analysis methods to research. Primarily, theoretical analysis of the formation mechanism of the prices of agricultural products, it shows that the price fluctuations of agricultural production, the supply price elasticity of farmers and marketing enterprises, the retail price elasticity of marketing businesses and consumers, as well as the alternative elasticity between marketing products and agricultural products and other factors are influencing factors on the prices of agricultural products. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the paper conducts the empirical analysis from two perspectives. One is from the agricultural industry chain perspective to study the relationship and impact among the prices of agricultural products. The study found that demand-pull effect strength is stronger than supply-driven effect in vertical price transfer process, and former lasts much longer. For wholesale price of agricultural products, it mainly impacted by prices of its own and production materials; for food retail price, it is impacted by upstream supply price significantly in a relatively short time. Meanwhile, the market association degree in agricultural industrial chain can also affect the vertical pass effect of the agricultural products prices. The compact vertical market links, such as the market of meat products and soy products market of "property rights comprehensive integration", its price transmission has asymmetric price transmission characteristics. The product chain of rice and cotton products chain does not have the asymmetric price transmission characteristics. On the other hand, from the horizontal market supply and demand point of view, empirical research founds that the main factors affecting the supply of agricultural products are the cost of agricultural products, financial investment, as well as the current prices of agricultural products. Affecting agricultural demand is more complex, it includes population, food exports retail prices, money supply, and the RMB exchange rate etc. In the market equilibrium conditions, the prices of agricultural products is not significantly influenced by the current supply and demand, but mainly influenced by the impact of previous supply and first two demands. In addition, the paper also verifies the divergent cobweb type of agricultural products market in China. Finally, on the basis of the above study, the paper puts forward a theoretical framework and target for the regulation of agricultural products prices fluctuation in China. Government should be conducted by regulation strategy to manage agricultural product market supply and demand management, and to construct agricultural market mechanisms so as to further improve the price regulation policy system of agricultural products.
引文
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