中国外汇储备来源与来源质量研究
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摘要
我国1994年确立市场经济体制以后进行了外汇体制改革,外汇储备随之大幅增长,到2006年2月我国外汇储备规模首次超过日本,成为世界上外汇储备数量最多的国家,此后我国外汇储备规模一直稳居世界第一位。外汇储备增长一方面具有积极作用,另一方面也给我国宏观调控增加了难度。但即使我国外汇储备规模稳居世界第一位,一旦对外出口下降,国家政策又急于采取措施扭转这一局面。根据萨缪尔森的国际收支阶段理论,一国进入成熟的债权国阶段时,并不过份担心贸易逆差,正如萨缪尔森所说,贸易逆差对一个国家可能是好事,因为逆差国公民由于能够进口更便宜的商品而生活得更好。为什么我国在积累了如此多的外汇储备之后仍无法进入成熟的债权国阶段“享受”贸易逆差带来的福利,究其原因是我国外汇储备来源不稳定,来源质量不高,外汇储备来源质量高低决定政府对外汇储备存量调节和宏观调控的自主性程度。本文提出优化外汇储备来源质量的建议,为增强政府对外汇储备存量调节和宏观调控的自主性提供借鉴。
本文在结合历史数据的基础上采用定性和定量分析,在研究文献的基础上与规范研究相结合,以研究外汇储备来源的国际收支相关理论中的萨缪尔森国际收支阶段理论为基础,以探究外汇储备来源和来源质量为主线,具体采用对比分析、因素分析和成本收益分析的方法,分析我国外汇储备来源及来源质量,并探究影响我国外汇储备来源质量的因素,提出优化外汇储备来源质量的建议。本文大体分为以下步骤：
首先,本文对外汇储备有关文献进行回顾,发现现有文献中研究外汇储备规模的多,研究外汇储备来源的少,研究外汇储备来源质量的更少,对外汇储备来源质量的研究零星出现于外汇储备规模和结构管理的研究中,这为本文的研究提供了一个新的视角。
其次,对于我国外汇储备来源,主要是结合确立市场经济体制以来我国历年国际收支平衡表的数据进行定量分析,将其划分为几个阶段,与萨缪尔森所说的国际收支各阶段进行对比分析,发现我国国际收支各阶段与其他国家有一致的地方,也有不同之处,一致的地方是共性规律在起作用,不同之处与我国对外经济交易模式有关。我国外汇储备来源于国际收支“双顺差”,这使得我国外汇储备持续增长,但由于“双顺差”过度依赖外商投资,所以我国外汇储备来源并不稳定。
再次,分析我国外汇储备来源质量。所谓外汇储备来源质量是指获得外汇储备的难易程度和获得外汇储备成本的高低。由于获得外汇储备的难易程度受多种因素影响,有些因素难以量化分析,所以主要采用定性分析的方法,而对获得外汇储备成本的高低则采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的成本收益法。结论是,由于我国发展相对落后,发达国家主导国际经济话语权和产品定价权,我国在对外经济交易中付出的成本高、收益低,因此外汇储备来源质量不高。
最后,提出优化外汇储备来源质量的对策。萨缪尔森所描述的国家之所以能够“享受”对外贸易逆差,是因为先发展起来的这些国家有条件在国际范围内配置资源,先行掌控了局势。后发展起来的国家要想打破已有的局面势必要付出更大的努力,在努力过程中,既需要通过市场的奖惩机制对企业进行优胜劣汰,也需要政府制定适当的规则,通过改变企业的成本对其加以引导。
The foreign exchange reserves in our country have been greatly increasing since the structural reform of foreign exchanges was carried out when the market economy system was established in1994. The foreign exchange reserves of our country exceeded that of Japan in size for the first time in February of2006and have ranked the first in the whole world ever since. On one hand, the increase of foreign exchange reserves has positive effects; on the other hand, it poses difficulty on macro-control of our country. Even though the foreign exchange reserves of our country rank first in the world, once the export falls, China will take immediate measures to reverse this situation. According to Samuelson's theory of international balance of payments stage, a country will not excessively worry about trade deficit if this country is a mature creditor nation. Just as Samuelson ever said, trade deficit might be a good thing for a country, because citizens of this country could import goods with lower prices and might live a better life. Why after China has accumulated such a huge foreign exchange reserves, we still haven't entered the stage of being a mature creditor nation and reaping the fruits brought by trade deficit. The reason behind this is that:the foreign exchange reserves sources of our country are unstable and in inferior quality. The quality of foreign exchange reserves sources determines the autonomy of government's regulation on foreign exchange reserve volume and macro-control. This paper offers advice of optimizing the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources, which will be used as a reference for the government to enhance the autonomy of government's regulation on foreign exchange reserve volume and macro-control.
On the basis of historical data, related researches and Samuelson's theory of international balance of payments stage, this paper adopts qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, as well as the method of comparison, factor analysis and cost profit analysis, to study the foreign exchange reserves sources and their quality. This paper also studies the factors that are affecting the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources, and offers advice of optimizing quality of foreign exchange reserves sources. Briefly, this paper follows the next procedures:
Firstly, this paper starts with literature review on foreign exchange reserves. The writer finds that the majority of the present researches focus on the size of foreign exchange reserves, and only a small number of researches are about the foreign exchange reserves sources, and even fewer researches are studies on the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources. A very few researches on the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources appeared in the study of the size and structural management of foreign exchange reserves, which offers a new perspective for this research.
Secondly, concerning the source of our country's foreign exchange reserves, this paper mainly carries out quantitative analysis on data from annual international balance of payments account of China ever since market economy system was established in this country. This period is divided into several stages which are compared with the various stages of international balance of payments of Samuelson. The results show that there are differences and similarities between the international balance of payments stages in our country and other countries. General laws lead to similarities, and the special foreign trade transaction mode of our country leads to the differences."Double surplus" of International balance of payments is the source of foreign exchange reserves in our country, which also leads to the sustainable growth of it. Nevertheless,"double surplus" is excessively depending on foreign investment, thus the source of foreign exchange reserves in our country is unstable.
Thirdly, this paper analyzes the quality of our country's foreign exchange reserves sources. The quality of foreign exchange reserves sources depends on the difficulty and the cost of obtaining foreign exchange reserves. Since the difficulty of obtaining foreign exchange reserves is affected by various elements, some of which are difficult to be quantitatively analyzed, thus this paper mainly adopts qualitative analysis. And concerning the cost of obtaining foreign exchange reserves, this paper adopts cost profit method which combines qualitative and quantitative analysis together. The conclusion is:since our country lags behind those developed countries that are holding dominant positions in international economy and price determination, we pay high cost and gain low profit in foreign transactions, which leads to the inferior quality of foreign exchange reserves sources.
Finally, this paper puts forward measures to optimize quality of foreign exchange reserves sources. According to Samuelson, the reason why countries could enjoy foreign trade deficit is that these countries who developed ahead of time own the abilities to distribute sources within international range and thus control the situation. And the countries that lagged behind in development need to pay much more effort in order to change the already existed situation. And in this process, it is necessary to make the fittest enterprises survive by introducing punishment and reward system to market, meanwhile the governments need to design appropriate policies to guide them by changing the enterprises' costs.
本文在结合历史数据的基础上采用定性和定量分析,在研究文献的基础上与规范研究相结合,以研究外汇储备来源的国际收支相关理论中的萨缪尔森国际收支阶段理论为基础,以探究外汇储备来源和来源质量为主线,具体采用对比分析、因素分析和成本收益分析的方法,分析我国外汇储备来源及来源质量,并探究影响我国外汇储备来源质量的因素,提出优化外汇储备来源质量的建议。本文大体分为以下步骤：
首先,本文对外汇储备有关文献进行回顾,发现现有文献中研究外汇储备规模的多,研究外汇储备来源的少,研究外汇储备来源质量的更少,对外汇储备来源质量的研究零星出现于外汇储备规模和结构管理的研究中,这为本文的研究提供了一个新的视角。
其次,对于我国外汇储备来源,主要是结合确立市场经济体制以来我国历年国际收支平衡表的数据进行定量分析,将其划分为几个阶段,与萨缪尔森所说的国际收支各阶段进行对比分析,发现我国国际收支各阶段与其他国家有一致的地方,也有不同之处,一致的地方是共性规律在起作用,不同之处与我国对外经济交易模式有关。我国外汇储备来源于国际收支“双顺差”,这使得我国外汇储备持续增长,但由于“双顺差”过度依赖外商投资,所以我国外汇储备来源并不稳定。
再次,分析我国外汇储备来源质量。所谓外汇储备来源质量是指获得外汇储备的难易程度和获得外汇储备成本的高低。由于获得外汇储备的难易程度受多种因素影响,有些因素难以量化分析,所以主要采用定性分析的方法,而对获得外汇储备成本的高低则采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的成本收益法。结论是,由于我国发展相对落后,发达国家主导国际经济话语权和产品定价权,我国在对外经济交易中付出的成本高、收益低,因此外汇储备来源质量不高。
最后,提出优化外汇储备来源质量的对策。萨缪尔森所描述的国家之所以能够“享受”对外贸易逆差,是因为先发展起来的这些国家有条件在国际范围内配置资源,先行掌控了局势。后发展起来的国家要想打破已有的局面势必要付出更大的努力,在努力过程中,既需要通过市场的奖惩机制对企业进行优胜劣汰,也需要政府制定适当的规则,通过改变企业的成本对其加以引导。
The foreign exchange reserves in our country have been greatly increasing since the structural reform of foreign exchanges was carried out when the market economy system was established in1994. The foreign exchange reserves of our country exceeded that of Japan in size for the first time in February of2006and have ranked the first in the whole world ever since. On one hand, the increase of foreign exchange reserves has positive effects; on the other hand, it poses difficulty on macro-control of our country. Even though the foreign exchange reserves of our country rank first in the world, once the export falls, China will take immediate measures to reverse this situation. According to Samuelson's theory of international balance of payments stage, a country will not excessively worry about trade deficit if this country is a mature creditor nation. Just as Samuelson ever said, trade deficit might be a good thing for a country, because citizens of this country could import goods with lower prices and might live a better life. Why after China has accumulated such a huge foreign exchange reserves, we still haven't entered the stage of being a mature creditor nation and reaping the fruits brought by trade deficit. The reason behind this is that:the foreign exchange reserves sources of our country are unstable and in inferior quality. The quality of foreign exchange reserves sources determines the autonomy of government's regulation on foreign exchange reserve volume and macro-control. This paper offers advice of optimizing the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources, which will be used as a reference for the government to enhance the autonomy of government's regulation on foreign exchange reserve volume and macro-control.
On the basis of historical data, related researches and Samuelson's theory of international balance of payments stage, this paper adopts qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, as well as the method of comparison, factor analysis and cost profit analysis, to study the foreign exchange reserves sources and their quality. This paper also studies the factors that are affecting the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources, and offers advice of optimizing quality of foreign exchange reserves sources. Briefly, this paper follows the next procedures:
Firstly, this paper starts with literature review on foreign exchange reserves. The writer finds that the majority of the present researches focus on the size of foreign exchange reserves, and only a small number of researches are about the foreign exchange reserves sources, and even fewer researches are studies on the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources. A very few researches on the quality of foreign exchange reserves sources appeared in the study of the size and structural management of foreign exchange reserves, which offers a new perspective for this research.
Secondly, concerning the source of our country's foreign exchange reserves, this paper mainly carries out quantitative analysis on data from annual international balance of payments account of China ever since market economy system was established in this country. This period is divided into several stages which are compared with the various stages of international balance of payments of Samuelson. The results show that there are differences and similarities between the international balance of payments stages in our country and other countries. General laws lead to similarities, and the special foreign trade transaction mode of our country leads to the differences."Double surplus" of International balance of payments is the source of foreign exchange reserves in our country, which also leads to the sustainable growth of it. Nevertheless,"double surplus" is excessively depending on foreign investment, thus the source of foreign exchange reserves in our country is unstable.
Thirdly, this paper analyzes the quality of our country's foreign exchange reserves sources. The quality of foreign exchange reserves sources depends on the difficulty and the cost of obtaining foreign exchange reserves. Since the difficulty of obtaining foreign exchange reserves is affected by various elements, some of which are difficult to be quantitatively analyzed, thus this paper mainly adopts qualitative analysis. And concerning the cost of obtaining foreign exchange reserves, this paper adopts cost profit method which combines qualitative and quantitative analysis together. The conclusion is:since our country lags behind those developed countries that are holding dominant positions in international economy and price determination, we pay high cost and gain low profit in foreign transactions, which leads to the inferior quality of foreign exchange reserves sources.
Finally, this paper puts forward measures to optimize quality of foreign exchange reserves sources. According to Samuelson, the reason why countries could enjoy foreign trade deficit is that these countries who developed ahead of time own the abilities to distribute sources within international range and thus control the situation. And the countries that lagged behind in development need to pay much more effort in order to change the already existed situation. And in this process, it is necessary to make the fittest enterprises survive by introducing punishment and reward system to market, meanwhile the governments need to design appropriate policies to guide them by changing the enterprises' costs.
引文
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① 陈燕.国际金融[M].北京：北京大学出版社.2011.2：195
② 孙刚.王月溪.国际金融学.[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2011.9：146
① 孙刚.王月溪.国际金融学.[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2011.9：146
① 刘纯安,史学斌.人民币汇率制度的发展趋势对我国外贸战略的影响[J].湖北师范学院学报,2006,3：14-18
① 摘自《新民周刊》“钱塘江沿线现癌症村：酒缸绍兴变毒缸”2013年3月14日
① 秦天宝.我国外商投资环境保护法律亟待完善.生态经济.2000,7：31-33
① 仲大军.关注中国工业化的隐性成本.学习月刊,2005,9：13
① 企业出口利润率今年降至1.44%.深圳商报,2011年4月27日 责任编辑：陈枫
① 邵军,徐康宁.基于有界协整方法的中国进口需求弹性研究.财贸研究,2006,5：55-60.
② 王永中.中国外汇储备的成本、风险与对策[J].当代世界,2012,2：50-54.
① 数据来源：外储真实收益率1.25%, 对外负债成本高于投资收益.21世纪经济报道,2011-05-31.
① 李薇,杨冰.中、美服务贸易结构现状及演变比较分析.特区经济,2013,1：79
① 张茉楠.从“藏汇于国”到“藏汇于民”的战略转向[N].中国财经报,2010-9-7(008)
① 薛文锋.进口洋垃圾：暴利背后的道德沦丧.中国质量万里行,2007.2：32-34
① 薛文锋.进口洋垃圾：暴利背后的道德沦丧.中国质量万里行,2007.2：32-34
① 刘纯安,刘亚清,庞望远.自主创新发生主体界说[J].理论月刊,2008.01：129-131.
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① 潘永源.试论我国外贸质量现状及其优化对策[J].苏州大学学报(哲学社会科学版).2002,4：36-40
① 陈燕.国际金融[M].北京：北京大学出版社.2011.2：195
② 孙刚.王月溪.国际金融学.[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2011.9：146
① 孙刚.王月溪.国际金融学.[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社.2011.9：146
① 刘纯安,史学斌.人民币汇率制度的发展趋势对我国外贸战略的影响[J].湖北师范学院学报,2006,3：14-18
① 摘自《新民周刊》“钱塘江沿线现癌症村：酒缸绍兴变毒缸”2013年3月14日
① 秦天宝.我国外商投资环境保护法律亟待完善.生态经济.2000,7：31-33
① 仲大军.关注中国工业化的隐性成本.学习月刊,2005,9：13
① 企业出口利润率今年降至1.44%.深圳商报,2011年4月27日 责任编辑：陈枫
① 邵军,徐康宁.基于有界协整方法的中国进口需求弹性研究.财贸研究,2006,5：55-60.
② 王永中.中国外汇储备的成本、风险与对策[J].当代世界,2012,2：50-54.
① 数据来源：外储真实收益率1.25%, 对外负债成本高于投资收益.21世纪经济报道,2011-05-31.
① 李薇,杨冰.中、美服务贸易结构现状及演变比较分析.特区经济,2013,1：79
① 张茉楠.从“藏汇于国”到“藏汇于民”的战略转向[N].中国财经报,2010-9-7(008)
① 薛文锋.进口洋垃圾：暴利背后的道德沦丧.中国质量万里行,2007.2：32-34
① 薛文锋.进口洋垃圾：暴利背后的道德沦丧.中国质量万里行,2007.2：32-34
① 刘纯安,刘亚清,庞望远.自主创新发生主体界说[J].理论月刊,2008.01：129-131.
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