基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估研究
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摘要
动态化的市场，日益月新的科学技术，缩短化的产品周期，多元化的消费者，复杂化的竞争，使得企业的生存步履维艰，很难在市场中占据绝对优势地位。这就需要企业整合产品价值链，集中优势资源增强核心竞争力，使自身产品在关键环节上拥有主导地位，并凭助外部优势资源给企业带来持久的收益。为此，一种新型企业组织模式——虚拟企业诞生。从此，关于虚拟企业及高新技术虚拟企业的研究成为学术界研究热点，实业界也愈加重视，虚拟企业模式逐渐地被广泛接受与应用。随着虚拟企业的增多，合作企业间的利益分配及调整，企业间的并购、转让等不可回避的问题，因而对虚拟企业的价值评估就彰显其重要性。在众多的虚拟企业中，高新技术虚拟企业如今又独领风骚，故本文选取基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业为研究对象，既突出重点又从点到面，为以后研究虚拟企业价值评估打下坚实基础。
本文从两个方面构建高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型。一是从基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业本身出发，对其概念、内涵、成长规律、企业边界、期权特性等对基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业进行深入研究，探究其价值内涵及构成，为构建基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型建立理论基础。二是对评价方法的研究，通过对各种企业价值评估方法适用条件及局限进行对比分析，并结合基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业的特有属性和特征来选择合适的价值评估方法。最后，将二者综合，构建出比较理想的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型，分别包括变量值确定情况下和变量值不确定情况下的各类型高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型并结合企业案例进行实证研究。
研究取得了如下创新性成果：
（1）本文在对高新技术虚拟企业定义进行重新界定基础上，将其概念和内涵进行具体化、明确化，然后对高新技术虚拟企业成长规律、企业边界、期权特性等问题进行深入研究，探究高新技术虚拟企业的价值内涵、构成以及对其价值形成机理，以便能够有针对性地选择合适价值评估方法评估高新技术虚拟企业价值。
（2）建立基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估框架，并构建了不同评估方法的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型。基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估应遵循如下程序：高新技术虚拟企业类型识别——高新技术虚拟企业期权特性分析——评估方法选择与比较——确定最佳评估方法与模型——应用。本文先对各种类型高新技术虚拟企业的阶段性特征进行分析；接着，先后构建了基于传统NPV法的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型、基于二项式树法的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型、基于B-S理论的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型和基于复合期权理论的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型；最后，分别以东软集团CT扫描机项目组建的虚拟生产型高新技术虚拟企业、小米科技智能手机项目组建的前向虚拟型高新技术虚拟企业以及天津一品科技背背佳产品全组合虚拟型高新技术虚拟企业为例进行实例分析。
（3）构建高新技术虚拟企业价值模糊评估模型。由于市场环境的不确定性和技术创新本身的复杂性，对未来投资机会的现金流、标的资产收益的波动率、折现率和无风险利率等变量或参数很难用一个确定值来描述，利用模糊数理论可以解决这个问题。我们假定未来预期现金流现值V~、标的资产价格波动率~、折现率r和无风险利率~r都为模糊数，构建了一般模糊数形式下高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型，包括一般模糊数下的高新技术虚拟企业价值传统评估模型、高新技术虚拟企业二项式树价值评估模型、高新技术虚拟企业的B-S价值评估模型和一般模糊数下的高新技术虚拟企业复合期权价值评估模型。同时构建特殊模糊数形式下各种高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型，弥补已有研究只是将其中某一个或两个变量视为模糊数而导致现有价值评估方法存在不足的问题。
Under dynamic market, modern science and technology, the shortening of the productlife cycle, diversification consumers, competition complicated, the enterprise makes survivalvery difficult and couldn’t occupy the absolute dominant position in the market. It requiresenterprises to integrate the product value chain and keep the concentration of superiorresources and enhance core competitiveness, and so the enterprise has a dominant position inmarket and brings lasting benefits t with the help of external superior resources.
To this end, a new corporate organizational model is born-the virtual enterprise. Sincethen, the study of virtual enterprises and high-tech virtual enterprise has become researchfocus. The business community also pays more attention to the virtual enterprise model andwidely used them. With the increase of virtual enterprise, these are unavoidable questionsincluding the allocation and adjustment of interests between virtual enterprises, corporatemergers and acquisitions, transfer among the enterprises, and thus it is very importance toevaluate the virtual enterprise value. The high-tech virtual enterprise are the important part invirtual enterprises, so the paper select the high-tech virtual enterprise as the research object,which both focused and achieve research from the point to the surface, and lay a solidfoundation for researching the virtual enterprise value in future.
This article builds a high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model from two aspects. Thefirst one is about the high-tech virtual enterprise itself. We study in-depth its concept,connotation, the law of growth, enterprise boundary, options characteristics of the high-techvirtual enterprise and probe the content and structure of the value, which become thefoundation in theory to build a high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model. The second one isabout a study on the evaluation method. After comparative analysis the applicable conditionsand limitations of the various enterprise valuation methods, we should select the appropriatevaluation method combined with the unique properties and characteristics of the high-techvirtual enterprise. Finally, after the synthesis of the two aspects, we build the ideal valuationmodel including single mode virtual type, dual combination of virtual type and fullcombination of virtual type of virtual high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model, andcombining with the enterprise case for empirical analysis, including various types ofhigh-tech virtual enterprise valuation model with business cases for empirical research.
The research has made innovative achievements as follows:
(1) We specific and clear its concept and content based on redefine the high-tech virtual enterprise, then study these problems including the high-tech virtual enterprise growth law,boundary, option characteristics, and explore high-tech virtual enterprise value content, valuecomposition and value formation mechanism, so as to choice appropriate valuation methodsto assess different types of high-tech virtual enterprise value.
(2) We establish a framework about high-tech virtual enterprise value assessment andthink that it should follow the following procedure about product-based HNTVE valueassessment: type identification-Characteristics Analysis-Comparison of methods andmodeling-value assessment. The paper firstly analysis the phase characteristics of varioustypes of high-tech virtual enterprise; Then, we constructed the HNVTE value assessmentmodel based on traditional NPV, HNVTE Valuation Model based on the binomial tree method,HNVTE value assessment model based on B-S theory, HNVTE value assessment modelbased on compound option theory; Finally, we study three examples about the virtualproduction HNTVE established by DONG-soft CT Scanner, the forward virtual HNTVEestablished by millet technology smartphone project and the full combination virtual HNTVEestablished by "BEI-BEI-JIA" project of YI-PING company in TianJing.
(3) We build a high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model in fuzzy theory. Due to thecomplexity of the uncertainties of the market environment and technological innovation itself,variables or parameters of future investment opportunities, cash flow, income volatility of theunderlying assets, the discount rate and the risk-free interest rate is difficult to describe acertain value,Using the theory of fuzzy numbers can solve this problem. We assume that thepresent value of expected future cash flows V~, the volatility~of the underlying asset price,the discount rate r and the risk-free rate~rare fuzzy numbers, construct the product-basedHNTVE value assessment models under the general form of fuzzy numbers, including theHNTVE valuation Model based on traditional valuation evaluate theory, the HNTVE Modelbased on binomial tree evaluate theory, the HNTVE Valuation Model based on B-S theory andthe HNTVE Valuation Model based on compound option theory under general fuzzy numbers;Finally, we constructed HNTVE value assessment model about particular fuzzy numbers,which make up shortcomings of the current value assessment methods.
本文从两个方面构建高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型。一是从基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业本身出发，对其概念、内涵、成长规律、企业边界、期权特性等对基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业进行深入研究，探究其价值内涵及构成，为构建基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型建立理论基础。二是对评价方法的研究，通过对各种企业价值评估方法适用条件及局限进行对比分析，并结合基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业的特有属性和特征来选择合适的价值评估方法。最后，将二者综合，构建出比较理想的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型，分别包括变量值确定情况下和变量值不确定情况下的各类型高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型并结合企业案例进行实证研究。
研究取得了如下创新性成果：
（1）本文在对高新技术虚拟企业定义进行重新界定基础上，将其概念和内涵进行具体化、明确化，然后对高新技术虚拟企业成长规律、企业边界、期权特性等问题进行深入研究，探究高新技术虚拟企业的价值内涵、构成以及对其价值形成机理，以便能够有针对性地选择合适价值评估方法评估高新技术虚拟企业价值。
（2）建立基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估框架，并构建了不同评估方法的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型。基于产品的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估应遵循如下程序：高新技术虚拟企业类型识别——高新技术虚拟企业期权特性分析——评估方法选择与比较——确定最佳评估方法与模型——应用。本文先对各种类型高新技术虚拟企业的阶段性特征进行分析；接着，先后构建了基于传统NPV法的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型、基于二项式树法的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型、基于B-S理论的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型和基于复合期权理论的高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型；最后，分别以东软集团CT扫描机项目组建的虚拟生产型高新技术虚拟企业、小米科技智能手机项目组建的前向虚拟型高新技术虚拟企业以及天津一品科技背背佳产品全组合虚拟型高新技术虚拟企业为例进行实例分析。
（3）构建高新技术虚拟企业价值模糊评估模型。由于市场环境的不确定性和技术创新本身的复杂性，对未来投资机会的现金流、标的资产收益的波动率、折现率和无风险利率等变量或参数很难用一个确定值来描述，利用模糊数理论可以解决这个问题。我们假定未来预期现金流现值V~、标的资产价格波动率~、折现率r和无风险利率~r都为模糊数，构建了一般模糊数形式下高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型，包括一般模糊数下的高新技术虚拟企业价值传统评估模型、高新技术虚拟企业二项式树价值评估模型、高新技术虚拟企业的B-S价值评估模型和一般模糊数下的高新技术虚拟企业复合期权价值评估模型。同时构建特殊模糊数形式下各种高新技术虚拟企业价值评估模型，弥补已有研究只是将其中某一个或两个变量视为模糊数而导致现有价值评估方法存在不足的问题。
Under dynamic market, modern science and technology, the shortening of the productlife cycle, diversification consumers, competition complicated, the enterprise makes survivalvery difficult and couldn’t occupy the absolute dominant position in the market. It requiresenterprises to integrate the product value chain and keep the concentration of superiorresources and enhance core competitiveness, and so the enterprise has a dominant position inmarket and brings lasting benefits t with the help of external superior resources.
To this end, a new corporate organizational model is born-the virtual enterprise. Sincethen, the study of virtual enterprises and high-tech virtual enterprise has become researchfocus. The business community also pays more attention to the virtual enterprise model andwidely used them. With the increase of virtual enterprise, these are unavoidable questionsincluding the allocation and adjustment of interests between virtual enterprises, corporatemergers and acquisitions, transfer among the enterprises, and thus it is very importance toevaluate the virtual enterprise value. The high-tech virtual enterprise are the important part invirtual enterprises, so the paper select the high-tech virtual enterprise as the research object,which both focused and achieve research from the point to the surface, and lay a solidfoundation for researching the virtual enterprise value in future.
This article builds a high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model from two aspects. Thefirst one is about the high-tech virtual enterprise itself. We study in-depth its concept,connotation, the law of growth, enterprise boundary, options characteristics of the high-techvirtual enterprise and probe the content and structure of the value, which become thefoundation in theory to build a high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model. The second one isabout a study on the evaluation method. After comparative analysis the applicable conditionsand limitations of the various enterprise valuation methods, we should select the appropriatevaluation method combined with the unique properties and characteristics of the high-techvirtual enterprise. Finally, after the synthesis of the two aspects, we build the ideal valuationmodel including single mode virtual type, dual combination of virtual type and fullcombination of virtual type of virtual high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model, andcombining with the enterprise case for empirical analysis, including various types ofhigh-tech virtual enterprise valuation model with business cases for empirical research.
The research has made innovative achievements as follows:
(1) We specific and clear its concept and content based on redefine the high-tech virtual enterprise, then study these problems including the high-tech virtual enterprise growth law,boundary, option characteristics, and explore high-tech virtual enterprise value content, valuecomposition and value formation mechanism, so as to choice appropriate valuation methodsto assess different types of high-tech virtual enterprise value.
(2) We establish a framework about high-tech virtual enterprise value assessment andthink that it should follow the following procedure about product-based HNTVE valueassessment: type identification-Characteristics Analysis-Comparison of methods andmodeling-value assessment. The paper firstly analysis the phase characteristics of varioustypes of high-tech virtual enterprise; Then, we constructed the HNVTE value assessmentmodel based on traditional NPV, HNVTE Valuation Model based on the binomial tree method,HNVTE value assessment model based on B-S theory, HNVTE value assessment modelbased on compound option theory; Finally, we study three examples about the virtualproduction HNTVE established by DONG-soft CT Scanner, the forward virtual HNTVEestablished by millet technology smartphone project and the full combination virtual HNTVEestablished by "BEI-BEI-JIA" project of YI-PING company in TianJing.
(3) We build a high-tech virtual enterprise valuation model in fuzzy theory. Due to thecomplexity of the uncertainties of the market environment and technological innovation itself,variables or parameters of future investment opportunities, cash flow, income volatility of theunderlying assets, the discount rate and the risk-free interest rate is difficult to describe acertain value,Using the theory of fuzzy numbers can solve this problem. We assume that thepresent value of expected future cash flows V~, the volatility~of the underlying asset price,the discount rate r and the risk-free rate~rare fuzzy numbers, construct the product-basedHNTVE value assessment models under the general form of fuzzy numbers, including theHNTVE valuation Model based on traditional valuation evaluate theory, the HNTVE Modelbased on binomial tree evaluate theory, the HNTVE Valuation Model based on B-S theory andthe HNTVE Valuation Model based on compound option theory under general fuzzy numbers;Finally, we constructed HNTVE value assessment model about particular fuzzy numbers,which make up shortcomings of the current value assessment methods.
引文
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