全球火格局的时空变异及其机理分析
摘要
在全球尺度上量化火的时空变异及其机理,对减轻人员财产损失,及指导合理的政策制定和资源配置具有重要意义。本研究通过全球中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)的主动火数据计算的火指数,及自然(气候、植被、闪电、地形等)和人文因子(人口密度、经济状况、农业土地利用等),在全球尺度上,综合了火格局的多方面特征,量化了过火面积与火强及其空间分布,以及火的年间变异,并分析了火格局时空变异的机理,比较了不同生态区系之间火格局及其机理的差异。
论文的主要研究工作和结论如下：
1.结合火格局的两个重要特征：过火面积与火强,量化了全球火格局的空间变异,并结合自然人文因子分析其机理。以往的研究通常割裂考虑过火面积或火强,但相同的过火面积,可能伴随差异巨大的火强。本研究计算了两个基于卫星遥感的火格局指数：过火面积(BA)与火辐射强度(WAFI)以量化全球的过火面积与火强,并结合二者将全球火的空间格局分为四类：大过火面积高火强区(HH),大过火面积低火强区(HL),小过火面积高火强区(LH),小过火面积低火强区(LL)。通过适用于非正态分布数据的非参数分析方法,列联表分析,分析了火的空间差异与自然人文因子之间的关系。结果表明,HH火区主要分布在南美中部、澳大利亚北部、非洲同纬度的条带区域。该区平均火强大约在50MW,平均过火面积在象元面积的6%以上,人为活动强度低、干季长、地形平坦；HL火区主要分布在非洲的稀树大草原。该区平均过火面积在象元面积的6%以上,平均火强却较低；LH火区主要分布在西伯利亚和加拿大,以远离人类活动的泰加林为主。该区温度平均火强高于50MW,平均过火面积却小于象元面积的0.2%以上,温度低、闪电密度低；LL火区散布在各大洲,人口密度较高。本研究在全球尺度上分析了火的影响范围与程度的差异性,显示了未来结合二者进行研究的必要性。初步揭示了过火面积与火强间的相互关系,及二者对不同环境因子的敏感性差异。
2.量化了全球各个生态区系过火面积的时间序列,分析了其与极端气候事件的关系,并以加拿大为例,探讨了火与长期气候变化之间的关系。量化了全球各个生态区系过去15年过火面积的时间序列,并通过该时间序列计算了过火面积的年间变异系数(Ⅳ)。结果表明,不同生态区系的过火面积的大小、火季长度及年间变异均有所不同,且与当地的气候条件及植被生长季长度有关。其中,热带稀树大草原的过火面积最大,火季(3-10月)持续时间较长,且每年的情况较为一致；在其他生态区系,无论月过火面积时间序列还是年过火面积均显著小于热带稀树大草原相应的过火面积。人类活动影响过火面积的年间变异,在受人类活动的影响较大区域,每年的火情更加一致。另外,通过互相关分析探讨了火与极端气候事件之间的关系。结果表明热带雨林在极端气候事件发生时的过火面积更大。与之相反,在干旱灌木地区,过火面积与极端气候事件之间呈负相关的关系,并且滞后于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件约10个月左右；以加拿大为例,通过40年的火管理记录数据,分析了火与气候变化之间的关系。结果表明加拿大的过火面积、火的数目与温度之间存在着显著的正相关关系,而且在不同生态区系,火对温度响应的敏感性不同。其中,泰加林及北方苔原带对气候变化的响应最为剧烈,由于该区是全球重要的碳汇,这提醒决策者应格外关注气候变化对这里的火格局的影响。
3.通过随机森林回归树方法探讨了全球尺度上火与其影响因子间的响应阈值,及不同区域火格局的主要影响条件的差异。理论研究和小尺度实验指出,火与自然人文因子的关系不是简单的连续关系,而是呈现出阈值性,这对火建模及生物地球化学循环建模提出了更高的要求。在全球尺度上量化火与其影响因子间的阈值响应研究较少,可用于其他研究的具体阈值更是鲜见。本研究通过2001年1月至2007年7月的MODIS数据计算了一个火指数,年均火密度(Mean Annual Fire Density, MAFD),来代表全球火的格局。由于火及其影响因子间的关系是非连续的,而且影响因子的效应之间不可加,常规的线性拟合方法并不适应于该类建模。因此,我们采用了基于阈值的随机森林回归树的方法,在随机森林中构建了500棵回归树,分析了火与影响因子间的阈值关系。该方法较好地解释了观测到的全球火密度格局(方差解释率为78.33%)。结果表明,年平均温度是在全球尺度上影响火密度的主要因素,在温度高于19.3℃的区域,火密度才可能在其他条件适宜的情况下迅速增大。另外,前人的研究认为,火密度始终随温度的增加而增加,我们的研究表明这个结论只在一定程度上成立,而在温度已经足够高(年均温度高于19.3℃)的区域不适用,因为那里干季长度起主要限制作用,不同级别的降雨量对火活动格局有重要影响；最后,随机森林回归树模型识别出了全球火密度存在显著差异的三个区间,分别为：树木密度低于9%,在9%-53%之间,高于53%。当树木密度处在低或高的区间时,火密度被限制在一个较低的水平。只有在树木密度(9%-53%)中等的区域,火密度才可以超过7次每年每100平方千米。本研究采用基于阈值的随机森林和回归树模型,明确地将火与植被间的非连续响应关系集成进去,更真实地探索了火-植被-气候间的关系。研究中所检测到的类别及阈值,或可为下一代火建模及全球生物地球化学建模提供参考。
Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and the mechanisms driving its variations at large scales are important to reduce the costs of human and economy, and guide the policy making and resource allocation. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and the mechanisms driving its variations on the global scale, via the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), natural (climate, vegetation, lightning, and topographic roughness) and anthropogenic factors (population density, economy, and agricultural land use, etc.).
The main results and conclusions are as follows:
1. The spatial patterns of global fire were quantified and the mechanisms driving its global variations were analyzed, combining fire intensity and burnt area together. Two fire metrics were calculated to stand for global burnt area and fire intensity:BA and WAFI. A map of four categories of global fire patterns was then delineated:High burnt area and high fire intensity zone (HH), which was mainly distributed in the central South America, Northern Australia. This region was characterized by low human activity, long span of dry period and flat surface. The high burnt area and low fire intensity zone (HL), mainly concentrated in the African savannas. The low burnt area and high fire intensity zone (LH), mainly distributed in the remote boreal forests in Siberia and Canada. Finally, the low burnt area and low fire intensify zone (LL), scattered in almost every continent, and featured with high population density. Few studies have considered burnt area and fire intensity together, but similar burnt area often comes with startling different fire intensity, thus different impacts. This study quantified fire spatial patterns on the global scale and revealed preliminarily the interactions between burnt area and fire intensity.
2. The temporal patterns of global fire were quantified, and the relationships between the temporal patterns and extreme climate events were analyzed. Also, the relationships between the temporal patterns and climate change were investigated in Canada as a case study. The time series of global burnt area in each biome in the last15years were analyzed, and the variation coefficient (Ⅳ) was calculated to represent the interannual variations. The results show that, the magnitude, length of fire season, and the interannual variation in different biomes were different, and related with the conditions of climate and vegetation. Among them, the burnt area in the tropical rainforests was the largest, and the fire season was the longest. Anthropogenic activities influencing the interannual variations of fire, which tended to smooth fire activities. In addition, the relationships between fire and the extreme climate events were investigated via the cross correlation analysis (CCF). The burnt area in the rainforests were large coincided with ENSO events, in contrast, there was a negative and lagged relationships (about10months) between peaks of burnt area and ENSO event in dry shrublands. The burnt areas in the tropical savannas were the largest, and were consistent among years. There were significant relationships between fire and temperature in Canada.
3. Globally, the threshold relationships between fire and the influencing factors were investigated via the random forest and regression tree models. The recent theoretical analysis and small scale experiments pointed out the non-continuous relationships between fire and the influencing forces. Thresholds effects, rather than direct continuous relationships, exist, which challenge the related fire and earth system modeling. There are few studies quantified the thresholds between fire and the influencing forces. This study calculated a fire metric, Mean Annual Fire Density (MAFD) to quantify the global fire pattern. Next, the random forest and regression tree methods, which are based on threshold splitting were introduced to explore the non-continuous relationships. Also, the varying primary controlling conditions among different regions were quantified. The random forest model explained the observed global fire density patterns well (variance explained were78.33%). Previous studies suggested that fire activity would increase with temperature even when the precipitation increasing as well, but our result demonstrated that it is not applied for the regions with temperature higher than19.3℃. Finally, three intervals of tree density were identified with significantly different fire density:lower than9%,9%-53%, and higher than53%. Only within the intermediate intervals of tree density, can fire density exceed7counts per100km2per year.
论文的主要研究工作和结论如下：
1.结合火格局的两个重要特征：过火面积与火强,量化了全球火格局的空间变异,并结合自然人文因子分析其机理。以往的研究通常割裂考虑过火面积或火强,但相同的过火面积,可能伴随差异巨大的火强。本研究计算了两个基于卫星遥感的火格局指数：过火面积(BA)与火辐射强度(WAFI)以量化全球的过火面积与火强,并结合二者将全球火的空间格局分为四类：大过火面积高火强区(HH),大过火面积低火强区(HL),小过火面积高火强区(LH),小过火面积低火强区(LL)。通过适用于非正态分布数据的非参数分析方法,列联表分析,分析了火的空间差异与自然人文因子之间的关系。结果表明,HH火区主要分布在南美中部、澳大利亚北部、非洲同纬度的条带区域。该区平均火强大约在50MW,平均过火面积在象元面积的6%以上,人为活动强度低、干季长、地形平坦；HL火区主要分布在非洲的稀树大草原。该区平均过火面积在象元面积的6%以上,平均火强却较低；LH火区主要分布在西伯利亚和加拿大,以远离人类活动的泰加林为主。该区温度平均火强高于50MW,平均过火面积却小于象元面积的0.2%以上,温度低、闪电密度低；LL火区散布在各大洲,人口密度较高。本研究在全球尺度上分析了火的影响范围与程度的差异性,显示了未来结合二者进行研究的必要性。初步揭示了过火面积与火强间的相互关系,及二者对不同环境因子的敏感性差异。
2.量化了全球各个生态区系过火面积的时间序列,分析了其与极端气候事件的关系,并以加拿大为例,探讨了火与长期气候变化之间的关系。量化了全球各个生态区系过去15年过火面积的时间序列,并通过该时间序列计算了过火面积的年间变异系数(Ⅳ)。结果表明,不同生态区系的过火面积的大小、火季长度及年间变异均有所不同,且与当地的气候条件及植被生长季长度有关。其中,热带稀树大草原的过火面积最大,火季(3-10月)持续时间较长,且每年的情况较为一致；在其他生态区系,无论月过火面积时间序列还是年过火面积均显著小于热带稀树大草原相应的过火面积。人类活动影响过火面积的年间变异,在受人类活动的影响较大区域,每年的火情更加一致。另外,通过互相关分析探讨了火与极端气候事件之间的关系。结果表明热带雨林在极端气候事件发生时的过火面积更大。与之相反,在干旱灌木地区,过火面积与极端气候事件之间呈负相关的关系,并且滞后于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件约10个月左右；以加拿大为例,通过40年的火管理记录数据,分析了火与气候变化之间的关系。结果表明加拿大的过火面积、火的数目与温度之间存在着显著的正相关关系,而且在不同生态区系,火对温度响应的敏感性不同。其中,泰加林及北方苔原带对气候变化的响应最为剧烈,由于该区是全球重要的碳汇,这提醒决策者应格外关注气候变化对这里的火格局的影响。
3.通过随机森林回归树方法探讨了全球尺度上火与其影响因子间的响应阈值,及不同区域火格局的主要影响条件的差异。理论研究和小尺度实验指出,火与自然人文因子的关系不是简单的连续关系,而是呈现出阈值性,这对火建模及生物地球化学循环建模提出了更高的要求。在全球尺度上量化火与其影响因子间的阈值响应研究较少,可用于其他研究的具体阈值更是鲜见。本研究通过2001年1月至2007年7月的MODIS数据计算了一个火指数,年均火密度(Mean Annual Fire Density, MAFD),来代表全球火的格局。由于火及其影响因子间的关系是非连续的,而且影响因子的效应之间不可加,常规的线性拟合方法并不适应于该类建模。因此,我们采用了基于阈值的随机森林回归树的方法,在随机森林中构建了500棵回归树,分析了火与影响因子间的阈值关系。该方法较好地解释了观测到的全球火密度格局(方差解释率为78.33%)。结果表明,年平均温度是在全球尺度上影响火密度的主要因素,在温度高于19.3℃的区域,火密度才可能在其他条件适宜的情况下迅速增大。另外,前人的研究认为,火密度始终随温度的增加而增加,我们的研究表明这个结论只在一定程度上成立,而在温度已经足够高(年均温度高于19.3℃)的区域不适用,因为那里干季长度起主要限制作用,不同级别的降雨量对火活动格局有重要影响；最后,随机森林回归树模型识别出了全球火密度存在显著差异的三个区间,分别为：树木密度低于9%,在9%-53%之间,高于53%。当树木密度处在低或高的区间时,火密度被限制在一个较低的水平。只有在树木密度(9%-53%)中等的区域,火密度才可以超过7次每年每100平方千米。本研究采用基于阈值的随机森林和回归树模型,明确地将火与植被间的非连续响应关系集成进去,更真实地探索了火-植被-气候间的关系。研究中所检测到的类别及阈值,或可为下一代火建模及全球生物地球化学建模提供参考。
Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and the mechanisms driving its variations at large scales are important to reduce the costs of human and economy, and guide the policy making and resource allocation. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and the mechanisms driving its variations on the global scale, via the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), natural (climate, vegetation, lightning, and topographic roughness) and anthropogenic factors (population density, economy, and agricultural land use, etc.).
The main results and conclusions are as follows:
1. The spatial patterns of global fire were quantified and the mechanisms driving its global variations were analyzed, combining fire intensity and burnt area together. Two fire metrics were calculated to stand for global burnt area and fire intensity:BA and WAFI. A map of four categories of global fire patterns was then delineated:High burnt area and high fire intensity zone (HH), which was mainly distributed in the central South America, Northern Australia. This region was characterized by low human activity, long span of dry period and flat surface. The high burnt area and low fire intensity zone (HL), mainly concentrated in the African savannas. The low burnt area and high fire intensity zone (LH), mainly distributed in the remote boreal forests in Siberia and Canada. Finally, the low burnt area and low fire intensify zone (LL), scattered in almost every continent, and featured with high population density. Few studies have considered burnt area and fire intensity together, but similar burnt area often comes with startling different fire intensity, thus different impacts. This study quantified fire spatial patterns on the global scale and revealed preliminarily the interactions between burnt area and fire intensity.
2. The temporal patterns of global fire were quantified, and the relationships between the temporal patterns and extreme climate events were analyzed. Also, the relationships between the temporal patterns and climate change were investigated in Canada as a case study. The time series of global burnt area in each biome in the last15years were analyzed, and the variation coefficient (Ⅳ) was calculated to represent the interannual variations. The results show that, the magnitude, length of fire season, and the interannual variation in different biomes were different, and related with the conditions of climate and vegetation. Among them, the burnt area in the tropical rainforests was the largest, and the fire season was the longest. Anthropogenic activities influencing the interannual variations of fire, which tended to smooth fire activities. In addition, the relationships between fire and the extreme climate events were investigated via the cross correlation analysis (CCF). The burnt area in the rainforests were large coincided with ENSO events, in contrast, there was a negative and lagged relationships (about10months) between peaks of burnt area and ENSO event in dry shrublands. The burnt areas in the tropical savannas were the largest, and were consistent among years. There were significant relationships between fire and temperature in Canada.
3. Globally, the threshold relationships between fire and the influencing factors were investigated via the random forest and regression tree models. The recent theoretical analysis and small scale experiments pointed out the non-continuous relationships between fire and the influencing forces. Thresholds effects, rather than direct continuous relationships, exist, which challenge the related fire and earth system modeling. There are few studies quantified the thresholds between fire and the influencing forces. This study calculated a fire metric, Mean Annual Fire Density (MAFD) to quantify the global fire pattern. Next, the random forest and regression tree methods, which are based on threshold splitting were introduced to explore the non-continuous relationships. Also, the varying primary controlling conditions among different regions were quantified. The random forest model explained the observed global fire density patterns well (variance explained were78.33%). Previous studies suggested that fire activity would increase with temperature even when the precipitation increasing as well, but our result demonstrated that it is not applied for the regions with temperature higher than19.3℃. Finally, three intervals of tree density were identified with significantly different fire density:lower than9%,9%-53%, and higher than53%. Only within the intermediate intervals of tree density, can fire density exceed7counts per100km2per year.
引文
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