生态城市建设作用机理与模拟仿真研究
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摘要
随着工业化、城市化进程的不断加快,城市发展中的生态环境问题日益凸显,实现人与自然协调发展已成为历史的必然选择。生态城市,作为一个科学的、理想的城市发展模式,为人类摆脱城市生态危机提供了新的思想理念和解决方法,已成为理论界、学术界共同关注的课题以及世界各国的城市决策者、建设者们踊跃的创建行动。我国关于生态城市的理论研究和实践探索也不断增多,已先后有160多个市提出建设生态城市的口号。
由于目前生态城市还停留在理论界和学术界理想状态下,在实践中不能轻易达到的“理想城市”,本文的研究不再探讨生态城市的思想、理念、特征、优势、意义、作用及发展远景等单纯的理论问题,而是把研究对象界定在具有理论和实践双重意义的“生态城市建设”层面上。本文所研究的“生态城市建设”,特指在某一城市区域空间范围内,通过创新设计、优化结构、均衡互补、科学调控、协同演进等科学手段,促进城市资源、环境、经济、社会大系统良性运转,迈向健康、和谐、可持续发展的生态城市的城市经济社会活动。本文对“生态城市建设”的研究是围绕城市这样一个以人为主体的、开放的、复杂的巨系统展开的,认为其是一项动态的、非线性的中间过程,而不是一个单一的、静态的进化结果；本文侧重对其系统运行、作用机理、操作步骤、实践方法、评价体系、仿真模拟、问题对策的研究和讨论。
首先,基于对国内外有关文献的广泛查阅和收集,归纳评述国内外生态城市建设理论研究现状和实践进展情况。在此基础上,从经济学、生态经济、系统论等观点出发,对生态城市这一复杂巨系统建设过程中各个影响和组成要素之间的结构体系、逻辑关系、作用流程、耦合模型和演化规律进行深入解析和方法讨论,从全新的理论视角探讨生态城市建设中,以结构协调均衡为核心,以熵变耗散耦合为特征,以动力协同演进为趋向的作用机理。
其次,通过大量实地调研和统计资料分析,汇集、查实哈尔滨基本概况、经济发展、社会进步等有效信息,分析了哈尔滨市自1999年提出建成生态市目标并于2002年出台规划以来,生态城市建设中所采取的措施与效果、存在的问题与差距、面临的机遇和挑战。根据生态城市建设的内涵,以哈尔滨市2000年至2010年11年间各项指标为原始统计数据,着眼于资源高效、经济发展、社会文明、环境和谐四个方面,建立起具有可操作性的评价指标体系,应用层次分析法对哈尔滨生态城市建设水平进行定性与定量相结合的分析与评价。
最后,构建生态城市建设系统动力学模拟仿真模型,定量预测并调控哈尔滨生态城市建设复杂动态系统。通过对人口、经济、资源、环境四个紧密相关的子系统因果变量关系的耦合模型仿真,得出未来20年哈尔滨生态城市建设和发展的趋势。从中合理确定4个调控因子,并通过对影响生态城市建设关键因子的调控,优化生态城市建设的发展速度和发展路径。依据优选的调控方案,针对评价和仿真过程中显现出来的问题,有针对性地提出建设健康可持续的经济保障体系、高效民主的政治保障体系、绿色环保的环境保障体系、监管有序的法治保障体系、多元创新的文化保障体系“五位一体”现代化生态城市的应对策略,为政府制定实施生态城市建设后续政策提供参考依据。
总之,本文的研究从理论和实践两个层面丰富了生态城市建设的作用机理、评价方法、仿真调控应用和政策保障体系,对哈尔滨生态城市建设后续政策选取提供了有针对性和参考价值的研究成果。
The accelerated industrialization and urbanization makes ecological environment a great issue in urban development. It is a consequence of coordination between human beings and the nature. The concept of ecological city serves as a rational and reasonable urban development mode, with its solution to urban ecological issues. It draws attention from the experts and decision-makers. In China, more than160cities have come to construction of eco-cities.
Eco-city is an ideal while not a practice to the theorist and academia. The author studies "construction of ecological city" in view of practice and theory instead of its concept, definition, meaning, purpose and future. Eco-city is a city designed with consideration of environmental impact, inhabited by people dedicated to minimization of required inputs of energy and waste output, on the way towards health, harmony and sustainable development through innovative design, optimized structure, good balance, reasonable control and coordinative evolution. It can help coordination of resource, environment, economy and society. The study on "construction of eco-city" goes around city, an open and complex huge system oriented towards human beings, which is a dynamic and non-linear intermediate process while not a single and static consequence. The author will study its system operation, mechanism of action, operation procedures, practice, evaluation system, simulation and solutions.
First, the author review domestic and foreign literature on theory and practice of constructing eco-city. On the basis from the view of economics, ecological economics and system engineering, the author explains and analyzes the structure, logics, action, coupling and evolution between elements and factors of eco-city, the complex huge system. It is whole-new to study eco-city in view of structure coordinative balance, entropy change and dissipation and dynamic synergetic evolution.
Second, the author makes survey and collects data and information on circumstance, economic growth and social progress in Harbin, and analyzes the measures, consequence, problems, weakness, opportunities and challenges from1999and2002, when Harbin put forward the goal of eco-city and made the plan. In light of the eco-city, the author formulates evaluation index system from the aspect of high-efficiency resource, economic growth, social civilization and friendly environment with respect to the original data from2000to2010. AHP model is used to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the construction level of eco-Harbin.
Finally, the author formulates system dynamics simulation model of the eco-city, and quantitatively predicts and controls complex dynamic systems of Harbin eco-city. On simulating the coupling model of cause and effect of close subsystems including that of population, economy, resources and environment, the author predicts the trend of construction and development of Harbin eco-city in the future20years.4control factors are defined, which have effect on construction of eco-city and are critical to optimize construction speed and path of eco-city. With respect to optimized regulatory program and problems emerging in the process of evaluation and simulation, the author proposes construction of modern "five in one" eco-city, a healthy and sustainable economic and security system, efficient and democratic political and security system, green environmental protection system, orderly regulation of the rule of law security system, security system diversified culture of innovation, to provide a reference for the government to implement the eco-city policy.
In general, the study is useful both in theory and practice in its action mechanism, evaluation, simulation and control, and policy guarantee in construction of eco-city.
由于目前生态城市还停留在理论界和学术界理想状态下,在实践中不能轻易达到的“理想城市”,本文的研究不再探讨生态城市的思想、理念、特征、优势、意义、作用及发展远景等单纯的理论问题,而是把研究对象界定在具有理论和实践双重意义的“生态城市建设”层面上。本文所研究的“生态城市建设”,特指在某一城市区域空间范围内,通过创新设计、优化结构、均衡互补、科学调控、协同演进等科学手段,促进城市资源、环境、经济、社会大系统良性运转,迈向健康、和谐、可持续发展的生态城市的城市经济社会活动。本文对“生态城市建设”的研究是围绕城市这样一个以人为主体的、开放的、复杂的巨系统展开的,认为其是一项动态的、非线性的中间过程,而不是一个单一的、静态的进化结果；本文侧重对其系统运行、作用机理、操作步骤、实践方法、评价体系、仿真模拟、问题对策的研究和讨论。
首先,基于对国内外有关文献的广泛查阅和收集,归纳评述国内外生态城市建设理论研究现状和实践进展情况。在此基础上,从经济学、生态经济、系统论等观点出发,对生态城市这一复杂巨系统建设过程中各个影响和组成要素之间的结构体系、逻辑关系、作用流程、耦合模型和演化规律进行深入解析和方法讨论,从全新的理论视角探讨生态城市建设中,以结构协调均衡为核心,以熵变耗散耦合为特征,以动力协同演进为趋向的作用机理。
其次,通过大量实地调研和统计资料分析,汇集、查实哈尔滨基本概况、经济发展、社会进步等有效信息,分析了哈尔滨市自1999年提出建成生态市目标并于2002年出台规划以来,生态城市建设中所采取的措施与效果、存在的问题与差距、面临的机遇和挑战。根据生态城市建设的内涵,以哈尔滨市2000年至2010年11年间各项指标为原始统计数据,着眼于资源高效、经济发展、社会文明、环境和谐四个方面,建立起具有可操作性的评价指标体系,应用层次分析法对哈尔滨生态城市建设水平进行定性与定量相结合的分析与评价。
最后,构建生态城市建设系统动力学模拟仿真模型,定量预测并调控哈尔滨生态城市建设复杂动态系统。通过对人口、经济、资源、环境四个紧密相关的子系统因果变量关系的耦合模型仿真,得出未来20年哈尔滨生态城市建设和发展的趋势。从中合理确定4个调控因子,并通过对影响生态城市建设关键因子的调控,优化生态城市建设的发展速度和发展路径。依据优选的调控方案,针对评价和仿真过程中显现出来的问题,有针对性地提出建设健康可持续的经济保障体系、高效民主的政治保障体系、绿色环保的环境保障体系、监管有序的法治保障体系、多元创新的文化保障体系“五位一体”现代化生态城市的应对策略,为政府制定实施生态城市建设后续政策提供参考依据。
总之,本文的研究从理论和实践两个层面丰富了生态城市建设的作用机理、评价方法、仿真调控应用和政策保障体系,对哈尔滨生态城市建设后续政策选取提供了有针对性和参考价值的研究成果。
The accelerated industrialization and urbanization makes ecological environment a great issue in urban development. It is a consequence of coordination between human beings and the nature. The concept of ecological city serves as a rational and reasonable urban development mode, with its solution to urban ecological issues. It draws attention from the experts and decision-makers. In China, more than160cities have come to construction of eco-cities.
Eco-city is an ideal while not a practice to the theorist and academia. The author studies "construction of ecological city" in view of practice and theory instead of its concept, definition, meaning, purpose and future. Eco-city is a city designed with consideration of environmental impact, inhabited by people dedicated to minimization of required inputs of energy and waste output, on the way towards health, harmony and sustainable development through innovative design, optimized structure, good balance, reasonable control and coordinative evolution. It can help coordination of resource, environment, economy and society. The study on "construction of eco-city" goes around city, an open and complex huge system oriented towards human beings, which is a dynamic and non-linear intermediate process while not a single and static consequence. The author will study its system operation, mechanism of action, operation procedures, practice, evaluation system, simulation and solutions.
First, the author review domestic and foreign literature on theory and practice of constructing eco-city. On the basis from the view of economics, ecological economics and system engineering, the author explains and analyzes the structure, logics, action, coupling and evolution between elements and factors of eco-city, the complex huge system. It is whole-new to study eco-city in view of structure coordinative balance, entropy change and dissipation and dynamic synergetic evolution.
Second, the author makes survey and collects data and information on circumstance, economic growth and social progress in Harbin, and analyzes the measures, consequence, problems, weakness, opportunities and challenges from1999and2002, when Harbin put forward the goal of eco-city and made the plan. In light of the eco-city, the author formulates evaluation index system from the aspect of high-efficiency resource, economic growth, social civilization and friendly environment with respect to the original data from2000to2010. AHP model is used to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the construction level of eco-Harbin.
Finally, the author formulates system dynamics simulation model of the eco-city, and quantitatively predicts and controls complex dynamic systems of Harbin eco-city. On simulating the coupling model of cause and effect of close subsystems including that of population, economy, resources and environment, the author predicts the trend of construction and development of Harbin eco-city in the future20years.4control factors are defined, which have effect on construction of eco-city and are critical to optimize construction speed and path of eco-city. With respect to optimized regulatory program and problems emerging in the process of evaluation and simulation, the author proposes construction of modern "five in one" eco-city, a healthy and sustainable economic and security system, efficient and democratic political and security system, green environmental protection system, orderly regulation of the rule of law security system, security system diversified culture of innovation, to provide a reference for the government to implement the eco-city policy.
In general, the study is useful both in theory and practice in its action mechanism, evaluation, simulation and control, and policy guarantee in construction of eco-city.
引文
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