苕溪流域地表水水质综合评价与非点源污染模拟研究
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摘要
尽管在工业点源与城镇生活污水控制治理方面取得重大进展,我国水污染问题仍然严重,农田化肥径流、农药以及集约化畜禽养殖排放等非点源污染已经成为流域地表水主要污染源之一。为有效地控制流域非点源污染,需要制定与执行科学可行的计划,而流域水质评价与非点源负荷定量评估则为此提供重要的决策依据。本研究主要针对流域地表水水质综合评价与非点源污染模拟进行研究。以太湖苕溪流域为研究区域,主要研究内容包括：应用自组织特征映射(Self-Organizing Map, SOM)与哈斯图技术(Hasse Diagram Technique, HDT)对流域地表水水质进行综合评价；基于支持向量机方法建立流域各项地表水水质分类模型并予以优化；建立苕溪流域HSPF模型对非点源污染负荷进行定量化模拟评估。主要结论如下：
(1)应用自组织映射与哈斯图方法对地表水水质监测数据集进行分类、建模、解释与评估,揭示了流域水质特征。选取高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总氮与总磷指标进行HDT综合分析,结果反映流域上游水质较好,中、下游水质相对较差；敏感性分析表明西苕溪流域的高锰酸盐指数、总氮以及总磷存在较大的环境风险。
(2)基于支持向量机方法,选取径向基函数为核函数,建立溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总氮和总磷的支持向量机分类模型,并使用交叉检验与网格搜索对模型参数进行优化。将优化后的模型应用于苕溪流域水质评价,结果显示所建立的模型具有良好的分类性能,优于传统线性判别分析与二次判别分析的分类能力。
(3)运用GIS、BASINS等建立了HSPF模型所需要的空间数据库与属性数据库,建立了苕溪流域HSPF模型,并对模型的水文、泥沙、营养盐等模拟模块分别进行了校正与验证。采用用相对误差(RE)以及Nash-Suttcliffe效率系数(Ens)对模型模拟效果进行评估。结果表明水文模块参数是适合的,模型HSPF对流量具有较好的模拟能力。对泥沙、营养物氮、磷的模拟效果“一般”。总体上,模拟结果可接受,模拟精度基本满足要求,可用于苕溪流域非点源污染过程模拟。
(4)利用HSPF模型对2007年苕溪流域非点源污染总氮、总磷负荷进行估算,并与调查值比较,结果显示苕溪流域非点源总氮负荷模拟值是10698t,调查值是9003t,相对误差为18.83%；非点源总磷负荷模拟值为1695t,调查值为1499t,相对误差为13.8%;流域非点源总氮、总磷负荷分别占总污染负荷的51.5%与42.7%。苕溪流域非点源污染已经成为重要的污染源。
(5)对苕溪流域农业非点源类型进行HDT敏感性分析,表明流域农业非点源污染负荷主要影响因素是种植业与养殖业污染。根据HSPF对苕溪各子流域总氮、总磷输出结果作哈斯图分析,结合非点源耕地土壤的氮、磷养分负荷,确定了苕溪流域非点源污染重点控制区域。基于种植业不同施肥管理措施情景分析表明,减少化肥施用量对非点源污染削减具有一定的效果,但并不显著；基于畜禽养殖污染非点源污染控制的情景分析表明,畜禽养殖污染物排放削减50%,总氮与总磷削减率分别达到13.56%与18.73%。最后,对苕溪流域非点源污染的治理提出了建议。
Despite the government has made major advances in the control of industrial and domestic point sources of water pollution, water pollution is still a critical problem in China as nonpoint source (NPS) pollution from runoff of fertilizer, pesticides, and discharges from intensive animal production facilities is becoming a major source of water pollution. Development and implementation of a viable and scientific action plan is required to effectively control nonpoint source pollution. Surface water quality assessment and quantitative evaluation of nonpoint source loads can provide an important support for decision-making. The goal of this study is to assess the water quality of surface water and to quantify the pollution loadings coming from nonpoint source. Tiaoxi watershed within Taihu was selected as the study area, and the main research work was made up of:(a) comprehensive evaluation for the surface water quality using self-organizing map (SOM) and Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT),(b) establishment and optimization of the classification models based on support vector machine (SVM), and (c) establishment of HSPF model for quantitative simulation and evaluation of nonpoint source pollution loads for Tiaoxi watershed. The main conclusions of the study were as follows:
(1) SOM and HDT were used to classify, model, interpret and evaluate the monitoring data for surface water quality, which displayed the water quality characteristics within Western Tiaoxi watershed. The water quality parameters like permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected for HDT comprehensive analysis and the results showed that water quality was better in the upstream, but relatively worse in the midstream and downstream. Sensitivity analysis showed that CODMn, TN and TP were important factors with high environmental risk.
(2) Support vector machine (SVM) classification models were constructed using a radial basis function (RBF). These models were used for classification according to dissolved oxygen (DO), permanganate index, NH3-N, TN, or TP, and cross-validation and grid-search were applied to find satisfactory parameters for RBF for the improved models. Then the improved models were made used of assess water quality within Tiaoxi watershed. The results showed that the SVM classification (SVC) models performed relatively better than the Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) models for classification.
(3) The spatial and attribute database for Tiaoxi watershed were established by using GIS and BASINS, and HSPF model was built. In the process, HSPF model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and nutrient respectively. Relative error (RE) and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were used to assess the model. The results showed that the hydrology parameters were suitable; the model had a good capability for the flow, but only general capability for sediment and nutrient like nitrogen and phosphorus. In general, the simulation was acceptable. The accuracy could basically meet the requirements, and the model can be used for nonpoint source pollution within Tiaoxi watershed.
(4) By using of HSPF model, quantitative evaluation of the loads of TN and TP from nonpoint source pollution in Tiaoxi watershed in2007was carried out, and the values were compared with baseline surveys afterwards. It showed that the simulated TN load was10698t, and the surveys was9003t, where the relative error was18.83%; the simulated TP load was1695t, and the surveys was1499t, with a relative error of13.8%. Nonpoint source pollution accounted for51.5%of all nitrogen pollution and42.7%of all phosphorus, and was a major pollution source in Tiaoxi watershed.
(5) The HDT sensitivity analysis for the agricultural nonpoint sources in Tiaoxi watershed indicated that the main factors of nonpoint source pollution loads were the pollution from farming and livestock poultry industry and aquaculture. According to HDT analysis based on the output of TN and TP in sub-basin in Tiaoxi watershed using HSPF model, combined with the cultivated soil loads for TN and TP from nonpoint sources, the key control area were determined. Scenario analysis based on the fertilizer application showed that reducing the amount of chemical fertilizer could reduce the output of nonpoint source, but not significantly. Scenario analysis based on controlling the nonpoint source pollution from livestock pollution showed that TN and TP reduction rate reached13.56%and18.73%when reducing the livestock emission by50%. Finally, some suggestions were given for controlling the nonpoint source pollution within Tiaoxi watershed.
(1)应用自组织映射与哈斯图方法对地表水水质监测数据集进行分类、建模、解释与评估,揭示了流域水质特征。选取高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总氮与总磷指标进行HDT综合分析,结果反映流域上游水质较好,中、下游水质相对较差；敏感性分析表明西苕溪流域的高锰酸盐指数、总氮以及总磷存在较大的环境风险。
(2)基于支持向量机方法,选取径向基函数为核函数,建立溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、总氮和总磷的支持向量机分类模型,并使用交叉检验与网格搜索对模型参数进行优化。将优化后的模型应用于苕溪流域水质评价,结果显示所建立的模型具有良好的分类性能,优于传统线性判别分析与二次判别分析的分类能力。
(3)运用GIS、BASINS等建立了HSPF模型所需要的空间数据库与属性数据库,建立了苕溪流域HSPF模型,并对模型的水文、泥沙、营养盐等模拟模块分别进行了校正与验证。采用用相对误差(RE)以及Nash-Suttcliffe效率系数(Ens)对模型模拟效果进行评估。结果表明水文模块参数是适合的,模型HSPF对流量具有较好的模拟能力。对泥沙、营养物氮、磷的模拟效果“一般”。总体上,模拟结果可接受,模拟精度基本满足要求,可用于苕溪流域非点源污染过程模拟。
(4)利用HSPF模型对2007年苕溪流域非点源污染总氮、总磷负荷进行估算,并与调查值比较,结果显示苕溪流域非点源总氮负荷模拟值是10698t,调查值是9003t,相对误差为18.83%；非点源总磷负荷模拟值为1695t,调查值为1499t,相对误差为13.8%;流域非点源总氮、总磷负荷分别占总污染负荷的51.5%与42.7%。苕溪流域非点源污染已经成为重要的污染源。
(5)对苕溪流域农业非点源类型进行HDT敏感性分析,表明流域农业非点源污染负荷主要影响因素是种植业与养殖业污染。根据HSPF对苕溪各子流域总氮、总磷输出结果作哈斯图分析,结合非点源耕地土壤的氮、磷养分负荷,确定了苕溪流域非点源污染重点控制区域。基于种植业不同施肥管理措施情景分析表明,减少化肥施用量对非点源污染削减具有一定的效果,但并不显著；基于畜禽养殖污染非点源污染控制的情景分析表明,畜禽养殖污染物排放削减50%,总氮与总磷削减率分别达到13.56%与18.73%。最后,对苕溪流域非点源污染的治理提出了建议。
Despite the government has made major advances in the control of industrial and domestic point sources of water pollution, water pollution is still a critical problem in China as nonpoint source (NPS) pollution from runoff of fertilizer, pesticides, and discharges from intensive animal production facilities is becoming a major source of water pollution. Development and implementation of a viable and scientific action plan is required to effectively control nonpoint source pollution. Surface water quality assessment and quantitative evaluation of nonpoint source loads can provide an important support for decision-making. The goal of this study is to assess the water quality of surface water and to quantify the pollution loadings coming from nonpoint source. Tiaoxi watershed within Taihu was selected as the study area, and the main research work was made up of:(a) comprehensive evaluation for the surface water quality using self-organizing map (SOM) and Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT),(b) establishment and optimization of the classification models based on support vector machine (SVM), and (c) establishment of HSPF model for quantitative simulation and evaluation of nonpoint source pollution loads for Tiaoxi watershed. The main conclusions of the study were as follows:
(1) SOM and HDT were used to classify, model, interpret and evaluate the monitoring data for surface water quality, which displayed the water quality characteristics within Western Tiaoxi watershed. The water quality parameters like permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected for HDT comprehensive analysis and the results showed that water quality was better in the upstream, but relatively worse in the midstream and downstream. Sensitivity analysis showed that CODMn, TN and TP were important factors with high environmental risk.
(2) Support vector machine (SVM) classification models were constructed using a radial basis function (RBF). These models were used for classification according to dissolved oxygen (DO), permanganate index, NH3-N, TN, or TP, and cross-validation and grid-search were applied to find satisfactory parameters for RBF for the improved models. Then the improved models were made used of assess water quality within Tiaoxi watershed. The results showed that the SVM classification (SVC) models performed relatively better than the Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) models for classification.
(3) The spatial and attribute database for Tiaoxi watershed were established by using GIS and BASINS, and HSPF model was built. In the process, HSPF model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and nutrient respectively. Relative error (RE) and Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency coefficient (Ens) were used to assess the model. The results showed that the hydrology parameters were suitable; the model had a good capability for the flow, but only general capability for sediment and nutrient like nitrogen and phosphorus. In general, the simulation was acceptable. The accuracy could basically meet the requirements, and the model can be used for nonpoint source pollution within Tiaoxi watershed.
(4) By using of HSPF model, quantitative evaluation of the loads of TN and TP from nonpoint source pollution in Tiaoxi watershed in2007was carried out, and the values were compared with baseline surveys afterwards. It showed that the simulated TN load was10698t, and the surveys was9003t, where the relative error was18.83%; the simulated TP load was1695t, and the surveys was1499t, with a relative error of13.8%. Nonpoint source pollution accounted for51.5%of all nitrogen pollution and42.7%of all phosphorus, and was a major pollution source in Tiaoxi watershed.
(5) The HDT sensitivity analysis for the agricultural nonpoint sources in Tiaoxi watershed indicated that the main factors of nonpoint source pollution loads were the pollution from farming and livestock poultry industry and aquaculture. According to HDT analysis based on the output of TN and TP in sub-basin in Tiaoxi watershed using HSPF model, combined with the cultivated soil loads for TN and TP from nonpoint sources, the key control area were determined. Scenario analysis based on the fertilizer application showed that reducing the amount of chemical fertilizer could reduce the output of nonpoint source, but not significantly. Scenario analysis based on controlling the nonpoint source pollution from livestock pollution showed that TN and TP reduction rate reached13.56%and18.73%when reducing the livestock emission by50%. Finally, some suggestions were given for controlling the nonpoint source pollution within Tiaoxi watershed.
引文
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