中国东部夏季多尺度气候变化研究中再分析资料的比较
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摘要
气候变化国际谈判,我国夏季气候变率对全球变暖的响应事实,都需要一套高质量、高分辨率、连续而有代表性的数据支撑,但由于模式、资料来源、质量控制和同化方案等的差异,使得目前被普遍使用的ERA40和NCEP/NCAR两套再分析资料在表征我国夏季东部气候变率的特征时出现了不一致的问题,从而影响了对我国气候变化事实的判断,因此使用观测资料来验证再分析资料的质量,对于更好地将再分析资料应用于我国气候变化的诊断研究和模式评价中,具有重要的理论和实际意义。
本文利用我国地面气温、气压、位势高度和风速等观测资料,以及由观测温度和温度露点差计算的比湿资料,从表征我国东部夏季气候变率各特征量的角度,对ERA40和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料与观测资料之间的异同进行了系统的对比研究。主要结论如下：
(1)就地面气温而言,ERA40和NCEP/NCAR资料所示的气温变化均能反映出我国观测温度的时空变化特征；ERA40温度(ET)值与观测温度(OT)值较接近,两者的距平值及其变化趋势亦非常接近,而NCEP/NCAR温度值(NT)比观测温度值低,但两种再分析温度资料对我国温度年际变化的表现能力相当,且ET与观测温度的相似性优于NT,在对地面温度进行周期变化和年代际特征分析时,使用ET较为可靠。ET对我国温度长期变化趋势的再现能力优于NT, NT对我国温度长期变化的表征具有不确定性。
(2)所用的3种气压资料均显示我国东部有气压升高的长期趋势,ERA40的海平面气压(ES)的变化量与观测的地表气压(OP)的变化量相当,再分析气压资料可以再现我国OP的年际变化特征,而在区域上则是东部优于西部,低纬优于高纬,ES优于NCEP/NCAR的地表气压(NP)和海平面气压(NS)。ES和OP具有较为相似的周期变化,以ES更为接近气压的真实变化。1976年前后的年代际突变特征在NCEP资料中十分显著,而OP的年代际变化没有NP的明显。但三种再分析气压在对气压长期变化趋势的描述中,不确定性均较大。
(3)在地面之上,再分析温度可以重现对流层观测温度的水平分布及垂直分布的气候特征,且随着高度增加再现能力增强,其距平值亦与观测温度的距平值接近,但再分析温度的气候值略低于观测温度的；再分析温度可再现观测温度在对流层的空间模态及年际变化特征,其中ERA40再分析温度(ET)优于NCEP/NCAR再分析温度(NT);对周期变化而言,与观测温度相比,在对流层低层ET的描述能力优于NT,中层NT略优于ET,在高层两者能力相当。再分析温度均可再现对流层各等压面上温度的年代际变化。ET和NT均可反映对流层中、高层温度长期变化趋势的分布特征,而ET在低层反映也较好。
(4)再分析位势高度基本可以再现对流层观测位势高度(OH)在夏季的气候平均状态,OH和ERA40位势高度(EH)的距平值和变化特征较为一致,与NH的距平值有较大差异,但再分析高度值低于观测高度值。两种再分资料对观测高度场年际变化及周期变化的再现能力相当,且均可再现对流层中、低层北方位势高度场年代际变化和长期变化的空间及时间特征；在对流层高层EH对观测高度场长期变化及年代际变化特征的再现能力略优于NH。
(5)再分析风速资料可以再现观测风速的分布型态,在高层的再现能力优于低层的；在低层东部的优于西部的；再分析风速值低于观测风速值,但三者的距平值相当。再分析风速资料均可重现对流层内观测风速年际变化分布型,但对风速年际变化的估计偏高。再分析风速均可以再现观测风速以1990年前后为转折点的年代际变化特点；两种再分析风速资料对风速年代际变化及长期变化的描述能力相当。
(6)在平均态上,两种再分析比湿资料(EQ、NQ)在夏季对流层中、低层均可反映观测比湿(OQ)的水平分布特点；在我国东部地区,再分析资料的比湿数值与观测值相当,在西部地区与观测资料略有差异；同时,再分析比湿资料可以再现观测比湿的年际变化特征,且EQ的再现能力优于NQ,而对中高层比湿的周期变化,两种再分析比湿资料有一定的表现能力,但对观测比湿的长期变化的再现能力较差。
此外,NCEP/NCAR资料的PSFC问题在1965年之前的对流层中低层的温度、高度/气压和风速资料中均有所反映。
International negotiations on climate change, the study of the responses to global warming in summer climate variation all need high quantities, high resolution, continuous and representational dataset. The two datasets, ERA40and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses datasets, which are used widely, performed inconsistent in climate variations in east China for the differences in model, data sources, quality control plan and assimilation scheme. Therefore, the work which used observations to verify the quantity of the reanalyses is of important theoretical and practical significance for the reanalysis datasets be used in climate diagnosis and model evaluation.
Using surface air temperature, pressure, geopotential height and wind speed from radiosonde observations over China, as well as specific humidity at all the isobaric level in the troposphere calculated from the in-situ observed temperature and depression of the dew point, which are then extracted as elements of surface air temperature, sea level pressure (surface pressure), tropospheric temperature, geopotential height,wind speed and specific humidity over East China in summer (JJA), the comparison is performed of these observed quantities with those from the ERA40and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses on the long-term and regional averages, long-term trends, variance and periods. Three datasets of observations, the ERA40and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses are employed in this paper, hereafter named as the O, E and N respectively. Results are as follows.
(1) Both ET and NT can reflect the spatial and temporal variations of China temperature, the former is more accurate.ERA40temperature (ET) corresponds closely to the observed temperature (OT) for the values and the anomalies, but NCEP/NCAR temperature (NT) is lower than the OT. ET and NT all can reflect annual variations of OT's. The ET is more closely to the OT than NT for the long-term trends and interdecadal variations, especially in East China. The significant shift of China temperature around1976has been shown by the three datasets, while the ET is more consistent with the OT.
(2) All the datasets show increasing pressure over East China. The ERA40sea level pressure (ES) has similar values with the observed pressure (OP), while the NCEP/NCAR surface air pressure (NP) and sea level air pressure (NS) are much higher than the counterparts of the ERA40and the observations, and much lower than the observations before the year of1965.Although showing significant uncertainty in the study of long-term trends of the OP, the two reanalysis datasets have ability to represent the inter-annual variability of the OP, with better performance in the eastern part (low latitudes) than in the western part (high latitudes) of China, while the representation of ES is superior to the NP and NS and marked by similar periodic variations with the OP.
(3) Temperature of the two reanalyses can mimic the horizontal distribution and vertical variation characteristics of the OT in the troposphere, while the description of temperature change becomes better with height increasing. The ET (ET and NT) can reproduce the distribution characteristics of long-term trends of the OT in the lower (middle and upper) troposphere. Also, the ET and NT have ability to represent the temperature characteristics on the aspect of spatial distributions and inter-annual variations. For the reproduction of periodic feature, the ET shows better performance in the lower lever, while the two have comparable (different) performance in the middle (upper) level. Compared with the OT, the ET and NT are slightly lower in value, but with similar anomaly values.
(4) EH and NH, height of the two reanalysis datasets, can represent the distribution characteristics of the observed height field (OH), which is marked by decrease of geopotential height from south to north in the troposphere. However, the values of the EH and NH are lower than the OH. Over East China, the two reanalysis datasets can better represent the long-term trends of the OH in the upper level than in the lower level, while the EH and NH have corresponding performance in the upper level and the EH are better in the lower level. The EH and NH can manifest the OH for its inter-annual variability which is marked by more significant variations in North China (upper troposphere) than in South China (lower troposphere), as well as its spatial distributions and periodic variations in the middle and lower troposphere, but with different performance for the temporal variations.
(5) EV and NV, wind speed of the two reanalysis datasets, have ability to represent the distributions of observed wind speed, with better performance in the upper level than in the lower level, and the lower-level wind speed is represented more close to the observations in East China than in West China. Both the reanalysis datasets can represent the trend features of the observed wind speed that is decreasing after the turning point around the year1990, but overestimate the trends. The EV and NV have similar performance in representing the decadal variations and long-term trends of the observed wind speed (OV). Also, the EV and NV can reproduce the distributions of inter-annual variations of the OV, but overestimate the range of the inter-annual variations, with equal performance in the upper level and EV prior to NV in the lower level. Generally, wind speed of the two reanalysis datasets slightly underestimates the observations in value, but have anomalies in proportion to the observations.
(6) EQ and NQ, specific humidity of the reanalysis datasets, are able to represent the distribution characteristics of observed specific humidity (OQ), and have equal performance of the observed distributions in the middle and lower troposphere. Both the EQ and NQ are weak (good) at representing the long-term trends (inter-annual distributions), in which the EQ has better performance than the NQ. Also, both have some capability to represent the periodic variability of the OQ in the middle and upper troposphere. The anomaly differences between EQ and OQ are smaller than those between NQ and OQ.
The PSFC phenomenon can be observed in temperature, pressure/geopotential height, wind speed fields in mid-lower troposphere.
本文利用我国地面气温、气压、位势高度和风速等观测资料,以及由观测温度和温度露点差计算的比湿资料,从表征我国东部夏季气候变率各特征量的角度,对ERA40和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料与观测资料之间的异同进行了系统的对比研究。主要结论如下：
(1)就地面气温而言,ERA40和NCEP/NCAR资料所示的气温变化均能反映出我国观测温度的时空变化特征；ERA40温度(ET)值与观测温度(OT)值较接近,两者的距平值及其变化趋势亦非常接近,而NCEP/NCAR温度值(NT)比观测温度值低,但两种再分析温度资料对我国温度年际变化的表现能力相当,且ET与观测温度的相似性优于NT,在对地面温度进行周期变化和年代际特征分析时,使用ET较为可靠。ET对我国温度长期变化趋势的再现能力优于NT, NT对我国温度长期变化的表征具有不确定性。
(2)所用的3种气压资料均显示我国东部有气压升高的长期趋势,ERA40的海平面气压(ES)的变化量与观测的地表气压(OP)的变化量相当,再分析气压资料可以再现我国OP的年际变化特征,而在区域上则是东部优于西部,低纬优于高纬,ES优于NCEP/NCAR的地表气压(NP)和海平面气压(NS)。ES和OP具有较为相似的周期变化,以ES更为接近气压的真实变化。1976年前后的年代际突变特征在NCEP资料中十分显著,而OP的年代际变化没有NP的明显。但三种再分析气压在对气压长期变化趋势的描述中,不确定性均较大。
(3)在地面之上,再分析温度可以重现对流层观测温度的水平分布及垂直分布的气候特征,且随着高度增加再现能力增强,其距平值亦与观测温度的距平值接近,但再分析温度的气候值略低于观测温度的；再分析温度可再现观测温度在对流层的空间模态及年际变化特征,其中ERA40再分析温度(ET)优于NCEP/NCAR再分析温度(NT);对周期变化而言,与观测温度相比,在对流层低层ET的描述能力优于NT,中层NT略优于ET,在高层两者能力相当。再分析温度均可再现对流层各等压面上温度的年代际变化。ET和NT均可反映对流层中、高层温度长期变化趋势的分布特征,而ET在低层反映也较好。
(4)再分析位势高度基本可以再现对流层观测位势高度(OH)在夏季的气候平均状态,OH和ERA40位势高度(EH)的距平值和变化特征较为一致,与NH的距平值有较大差异,但再分析高度值低于观测高度值。两种再分资料对观测高度场年际变化及周期变化的再现能力相当,且均可再现对流层中、低层北方位势高度场年代际变化和长期变化的空间及时间特征；在对流层高层EH对观测高度场长期变化及年代际变化特征的再现能力略优于NH。
(5)再分析风速资料可以再现观测风速的分布型态,在高层的再现能力优于低层的；在低层东部的优于西部的；再分析风速值低于观测风速值,但三者的距平值相当。再分析风速资料均可重现对流层内观测风速年际变化分布型,但对风速年际变化的估计偏高。再分析风速均可以再现观测风速以1990年前后为转折点的年代际变化特点；两种再分析风速资料对风速年代际变化及长期变化的描述能力相当。
(6)在平均态上,两种再分析比湿资料(EQ、NQ)在夏季对流层中、低层均可反映观测比湿(OQ)的水平分布特点；在我国东部地区,再分析资料的比湿数值与观测值相当,在西部地区与观测资料略有差异；同时,再分析比湿资料可以再现观测比湿的年际变化特征,且EQ的再现能力优于NQ,而对中高层比湿的周期变化,两种再分析比湿资料有一定的表现能力,但对观测比湿的长期变化的再现能力较差。
此外,NCEP/NCAR资料的PSFC问题在1965年之前的对流层中低层的温度、高度/气压和风速资料中均有所反映。
International negotiations on climate change, the study of the responses to global warming in summer climate variation all need high quantities, high resolution, continuous and representational dataset. The two datasets, ERA40and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses datasets, which are used widely, performed inconsistent in climate variations in east China for the differences in model, data sources, quality control plan and assimilation scheme. Therefore, the work which used observations to verify the quantity of the reanalyses is of important theoretical and practical significance for the reanalysis datasets be used in climate diagnosis and model evaluation.
Using surface air temperature, pressure, geopotential height and wind speed from radiosonde observations over China, as well as specific humidity at all the isobaric level in the troposphere calculated from the in-situ observed temperature and depression of the dew point, which are then extracted as elements of surface air temperature, sea level pressure (surface pressure), tropospheric temperature, geopotential height,wind speed and specific humidity over East China in summer (JJA), the comparison is performed of these observed quantities with those from the ERA40and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses on the long-term and regional averages, long-term trends, variance and periods. Three datasets of observations, the ERA40and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses are employed in this paper, hereafter named as the O, E and N respectively. Results are as follows.
(1) Both ET and NT can reflect the spatial and temporal variations of China temperature, the former is more accurate.ERA40temperature (ET) corresponds closely to the observed temperature (OT) for the values and the anomalies, but NCEP/NCAR temperature (NT) is lower than the OT. ET and NT all can reflect annual variations of OT's. The ET is more closely to the OT than NT for the long-term trends and interdecadal variations, especially in East China. The significant shift of China temperature around1976has been shown by the three datasets, while the ET is more consistent with the OT.
(2) All the datasets show increasing pressure over East China. The ERA40sea level pressure (ES) has similar values with the observed pressure (OP), while the NCEP/NCAR surface air pressure (NP) and sea level air pressure (NS) are much higher than the counterparts of the ERA40and the observations, and much lower than the observations before the year of1965.Although showing significant uncertainty in the study of long-term trends of the OP, the two reanalysis datasets have ability to represent the inter-annual variability of the OP, with better performance in the eastern part (low latitudes) than in the western part (high latitudes) of China, while the representation of ES is superior to the NP and NS and marked by similar periodic variations with the OP.
(3) Temperature of the two reanalyses can mimic the horizontal distribution and vertical variation characteristics of the OT in the troposphere, while the description of temperature change becomes better with height increasing. The ET (ET and NT) can reproduce the distribution characteristics of long-term trends of the OT in the lower (middle and upper) troposphere. Also, the ET and NT have ability to represent the temperature characteristics on the aspect of spatial distributions and inter-annual variations. For the reproduction of periodic feature, the ET shows better performance in the lower lever, while the two have comparable (different) performance in the middle (upper) level. Compared with the OT, the ET and NT are slightly lower in value, but with similar anomaly values.
(4) EH and NH, height of the two reanalysis datasets, can represent the distribution characteristics of the observed height field (OH), which is marked by decrease of geopotential height from south to north in the troposphere. However, the values of the EH and NH are lower than the OH. Over East China, the two reanalysis datasets can better represent the long-term trends of the OH in the upper level than in the lower level, while the EH and NH have corresponding performance in the upper level and the EH are better in the lower level. The EH and NH can manifest the OH for its inter-annual variability which is marked by more significant variations in North China (upper troposphere) than in South China (lower troposphere), as well as its spatial distributions and periodic variations in the middle and lower troposphere, but with different performance for the temporal variations.
(5) EV and NV, wind speed of the two reanalysis datasets, have ability to represent the distributions of observed wind speed, with better performance in the upper level than in the lower level, and the lower-level wind speed is represented more close to the observations in East China than in West China. Both the reanalysis datasets can represent the trend features of the observed wind speed that is decreasing after the turning point around the year1990, but overestimate the trends. The EV and NV have similar performance in representing the decadal variations and long-term trends of the observed wind speed (OV). Also, the EV and NV can reproduce the distributions of inter-annual variations of the OV, but overestimate the range of the inter-annual variations, with equal performance in the upper level and EV prior to NV in the lower level. Generally, wind speed of the two reanalysis datasets slightly underestimates the observations in value, but have anomalies in proportion to the observations.
(6) EQ and NQ, specific humidity of the reanalysis datasets, are able to represent the distribution characteristics of observed specific humidity (OQ), and have equal performance of the observed distributions in the middle and lower troposphere. Both the EQ and NQ are weak (good) at representing the long-term trends (inter-annual distributions), in which the EQ has better performance than the NQ. Also, both have some capability to represent the periodic variability of the OQ in the middle and upper troposphere. The anomaly differences between EQ and OQ are smaller than those between NQ and OQ.
The PSFC phenomenon can be observed in temperature, pressure/geopotential height, wind speed fields in mid-lower troposphere.
引文
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