南昌市暴雨积涝模拟及气候风险评估研究
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摘要
以南昌市为研究对象,围绕城市暴雨积涝灾害的形成机理、数学模拟、风险评估、监测预警等前沿问题,综合运用水文、气象、地理信息等有关学科理论,针对减轻城市暴雨积涝灾害损失并为城市规划提供科学依据的社会需求,充分利用城市地理信息资料、排水管网资料、雨量实况监测资料和雨量预报资料,借助地理信息系统平台,研究开发了城市暴雨积涝模拟模型,建立了依托气象部门雨量监测预报平台的暴雨积涝灾害预警系统,实现了南昌市城市暴雨积涝过程的数学模拟,提高城市暴雨积涝灾害监测、预警的科学水平,取得了有实际应用价值的研究成果。在研究过程中,结合实地测量和积涝模型调试,解决了模型中关键参数本地化问题。另外,本文基于南昌市历史日降水量和小时降水量资料,创造性地运用城市暴雨积涝模拟模型对南昌市暴雨积涝灾害进行了风险评估,为市政规划提供科学依据。在此基础上,提出了城市暴雨积涝临界雨量的概念,并给出了计算方法,为城市暴雨积涝预报服务提供了新手段。
论文的主要结论如下：
1、根据1961年以来的气象观测表明,受全球气候变暖影响,南昌和全国一样,气温呈现显著上升趋势,升温率0.23℃/10年,50年累计升温1.1℃；南昌市最近50年年平均降水量变化趋势不显著,最近50年年降雨日数减少,无降水日数在增加,小雨日数显著下降,中雨日数呈现下降趋势,但大雨、暴雨呈现上升趋势；说明在气候变暖背景下,南昌市降水强度在增强,面临的暴雨积涝灾害风险也在增加。
2、南昌市的强降水主要分布在夏季,市区积涝灾害多发生于3月到9月,主要发生于每年5月、6月,但其它月份均有不同程度发生,只要发生15mm/h以上的降水,市区就会发生暴雨积涝灾害。暴雨积涝成因主要有气候变化、城市建设、排水设计、排水管理、地形地势等方面。
3、通过对研究区域内和周边19个雨量监测资料,对不同空间插值方法计算误差的比较,得出了降水量在南昌市以二次曲面拟合精度最高的结论,确定了研究区域暴雨积涝模拟计算单元面雨量计算方法。
4、根据雨水流到地面产生汇流,然后形成地面径流,再流入排水管的原理,以不规则网格为计算单元,得出了城市暴雨积涝模拟思路和计算步骤,确定了计算单元雨水有效产流量、计算单元之间水流量、排水设施排水流量、积水深度等计算模型。
5、根据城市地表积水产汇流过程形成原理,通过暴雨积涝模拟和实况的对比调试,研究确定了南昌市不同地表类型的不透水面积百分率和地表糙率两个重要参数。
6、利用主要暴雨积涝地段的实测暴雨积涝深度资料进行了大量暴雨积涝模拟试验,提出了模型的暴雨积涝等级误差优于暴雨积涝深度误差的结论。对重点暴雨积涝地段,详细模拟得出开始暴雨积涝的雨强、达到最大暴雨积涝深度的时间、退水时间等,为城市排水管网的改造提供依据。
7、针对灾害风险评估的前沿问题,提出了城市积涝风险评估技术方法。利用历史长年代的降水资料,通过暴雨积涝模型的大量模拟,计算了研究区域不同地点出现不同等级暴雨积涝灾害的频率,绘制了南昌市暴雨积涝灾害气候风险分布图,为城市排水管网的改造和规划提供依据。
8、提出了城市强降水积涝临界雨量的概念,计算了南昌市不同暴雨积涝等级的临界雨量,为城市暴雨积涝预警服务增加了新的思路。
9、研发了南昌市暴雨积涝灾害模拟系统。针对城市水灾的形成机理、数学模拟、风险评估、监测预警等前沿问题,综合运用水文、气象、数学等有关学科基础理论,充分利用城市地理信息资料、排水管网资料、雨量监测和预报资料,研发了南昌市暴雨积涝灾害模拟系统,实现了城市暴雨积涝灾害的监测、预报、预警等功能,取得了有实际应用价值的研究成果,获得了软件著作权。
The research is based upon Nanchang City and cutting edge issues such as formation mechanism, mathematical simulation, risk evaluation, supervision and warning system for urban waterlogging have been studied by adopting comprehensively relevant scientific theories such as hydrology, weather and geographic information system etc. In order to decrease the loss of urban rainstorm and waterlogging, urban geographic information, drainage network, live monitoring data of rainfall and rainfall forecast materials have been fully taken advantage of for the research. Urban rainstorm and waterlogging stimulation model of Nanchang, which is based upon the rainfall monitoring and forecast platform in the meteorological department, has been established that has improved the overall level of urban rainstorm and waterlogging monitoring, forecast and disaster risk evaluation. Further more, according to per day and per hour precipitation, the waterlogging simulation model has been creatively utilized in waterlogging risk evaluation in Nanchang. Based on the model, the critical precipitation of the waterlogging has been calculated. So this model can be used in the urban waterlogging forecast system, as a new method.
The main research findings and conclusion of this paper is as follows:
1. According to the observation data from1961, influenced by global warming, Nanchang, the same as other cities, the temperature has obviously increased by1.1℃from1961. The warming rate is about0.23℃/10a. The annual precipitation doesn't change a lot, but the rainy day is decrease. Specially, the sprinkle days have obviously decreased. The moderate rainy days also decrease, while the heavy rainy days and rainstorm days increase. So under the background of climate change, the rain intense of Nanchang is increasing. The risk of waterlogging is also increasing.
2. The heavy rain always happens in summer, so the waterlogging is also happens between March and September, mostly in May and June. If the rain is heavier than15mm/h, there should be waterlogging. The main reasons, which cause urban waterlogging, are climate change urban design, drain design, drain management and terrain.
3. Utilizing19rainfall monitoring data in and surrounding the research area and comparing calculation errors of different spatial interpolation methods, we will know that quadric surface fitting is the best method that can be used to calculate grid cell surface rainfall in Nanchang.
4. According to theory that rain drops to the ground, then becomes surface runoff and flows into drainage pipe, the calculation thinking of urban waterlogging is determined. First, calculate the initial depth of rain in the grid, then current flow on the grid channels and in drainage pipes and then water level in the grid the next moment. Mathematical models of waterlogging simulation have been determined, including calculation model of rainwater effective flow in each grid, dividing the grid in to land grid and watercourse grid according to surface features, flow calculation models of watercourse channels, land channels and land-watercourse channels according to the relations between bordering grids, calculation model of land grid drainage flow including drainage pipes and calculation model of ponding etc.
5. According to urban surface ponding converging process, calibration method of impermeable area percentage and roughness coefficient could be determined.
6. By using actually measured depth data for key waterlogging sections and analyzing waterlogging depth and level errors, the conclusion of similar simulation results and actual situation is reached. For same important sections, detailed analysis is conducted for initial rainfall intensity of waterlogging and time of highest waterlogging depth and recession time, providing the basis for urban drainage pipe network improvement.
7. For cutting-edge issues of disaster risk assessment, we proposed the city waterlogging risk assessment techniques and methods. By using the history precipitation data, we can testify and adjust the simulation waterlogging model. By using this model, we will get the frequency of different levels waterlogging disasters in different sections in Nanchang and the waterlogging-risk distribution map of Nanchang city. So we can give same advices to the mapping and transforming of the urban drainage network.
8. Concept of critical precipitation of torrential flood and geological disaster warning is introduced. The rainfall intensity of mild, moderate and severe waterlogging is defined as critical precipitation. And critical rainfall of different waterlogging levels is calculated, providing new methods for urban waterlogging warning serve.
9. Waterlogging disaster warning platform in Nanchang has been developed. Cutting edge issues such as formation mechanism, mathematical simulation, risk evaluation, supervision and warning for urban waterlogging have been studied by adopting comprehensively relevant scientific theories such as hydrology, weather and geography etc. And urban geographic information, drainage network, live monitoring data of rainfall and rainfall forecast materials have been fully taken advantage of for the research and development of urban rainstorm and waterlogging stimulation model and rainstorm and waterlogging warning system to realize mathematical simulation for rainstorm and waterlogging in Nanchang City. And research results with practical value, software copyright have been gained for integrated innovation.
论文的主要结论如下：
1、根据1961年以来的气象观测表明,受全球气候变暖影响,南昌和全国一样,气温呈现显著上升趋势,升温率0.23℃/10年,50年累计升温1.1℃；南昌市最近50年年平均降水量变化趋势不显著,最近50年年降雨日数减少,无降水日数在增加,小雨日数显著下降,中雨日数呈现下降趋势,但大雨、暴雨呈现上升趋势；说明在气候变暖背景下,南昌市降水强度在增强,面临的暴雨积涝灾害风险也在增加。
2、南昌市的强降水主要分布在夏季,市区积涝灾害多发生于3月到9月,主要发生于每年5月、6月,但其它月份均有不同程度发生,只要发生15mm/h以上的降水,市区就会发生暴雨积涝灾害。暴雨积涝成因主要有气候变化、城市建设、排水设计、排水管理、地形地势等方面。
3、通过对研究区域内和周边19个雨量监测资料,对不同空间插值方法计算误差的比较,得出了降水量在南昌市以二次曲面拟合精度最高的结论,确定了研究区域暴雨积涝模拟计算单元面雨量计算方法。
4、根据雨水流到地面产生汇流,然后形成地面径流,再流入排水管的原理,以不规则网格为计算单元,得出了城市暴雨积涝模拟思路和计算步骤,确定了计算单元雨水有效产流量、计算单元之间水流量、排水设施排水流量、积水深度等计算模型。
5、根据城市地表积水产汇流过程形成原理,通过暴雨积涝模拟和实况的对比调试,研究确定了南昌市不同地表类型的不透水面积百分率和地表糙率两个重要参数。
6、利用主要暴雨积涝地段的实测暴雨积涝深度资料进行了大量暴雨积涝模拟试验,提出了模型的暴雨积涝等级误差优于暴雨积涝深度误差的结论。对重点暴雨积涝地段,详细模拟得出开始暴雨积涝的雨强、达到最大暴雨积涝深度的时间、退水时间等,为城市排水管网的改造提供依据。
7、针对灾害风险评估的前沿问题,提出了城市积涝风险评估技术方法。利用历史长年代的降水资料,通过暴雨积涝模型的大量模拟,计算了研究区域不同地点出现不同等级暴雨积涝灾害的频率,绘制了南昌市暴雨积涝灾害气候风险分布图,为城市排水管网的改造和规划提供依据。
8、提出了城市强降水积涝临界雨量的概念,计算了南昌市不同暴雨积涝等级的临界雨量,为城市暴雨积涝预警服务增加了新的思路。
9、研发了南昌市暴雨积涝灾害模拟系统。针对城市水灾的形成机理、数学模拟、风险评估、监测预警等前沿问题,综合运用水文、气象、数学等有关学科基础理论,充分利用城市地理信息资料、排水管网资料、雨量监测和预报资料,研发了南昌市暴雨积涝灾害模拟系统,实现了城市暴雨积涝灾害的监测、预报、预警等功能,取得了有实际应用价值的研究成果,获得了软件著作权。
The research is based upon Nanchang City and cutting edge issues such as formation mechanism, mathematical simulation, risk evaluation, supervision and warning system for urban waterlogging have been studied by adopting comprehensively relevant scientific theories such as hydrology, weather and geographic information system etc. In order to decrease the loss of urban rainstorm and waterlogging, urban geographic information, drainage network, live monitoring data of rainfall and rainfall forecast materials have been fully taken advantage of for the research. Urban rainstorm and waterlogging stimulation model of Nanchang, which is based upon the rainfall monitoring and forecast platform in the meteorological department, has been established that has improved the overall level of urban rainstorm and waterlogging monitoring, forecast and disaster risk evaluation. Further more, according to per day and per hour precipitation, the waterlogging simulation model has been creatively utilized in waterlogging risk evaluation in Nanchang. Based on the model, the critical precipitation of the waterlogging has been calculated. So this model can be used in the urban waterlogging forecast system, as a new method.
The main research findings and conclusion of this paper is as follows:
1. According to the observation data from1961, influenced by global warming, Nanchang, the same as other cities, the temperature has obviously increased by1.1℃from1961. The warming rate is about0.23℃/10a. The annual precipitation doesn't change a lot, but the rainy day is decrease. Specially, the sprinkle days have obviously decreased. The moderate rainy days also decrease, while the heavy rainy days and rainstorm days increase. So under the background of climate change, the rain intense of Nanchang is increasing. The risk of waterlogging is also increasing.
2. The heavy rain always happens in summer, so the waterlogging is also happens between March and September, mostly in May and June. If the rain is heavier than15mm/h, there should be waterlogging. The main reasons, which cause urban waterlogging, are climate change urban design, drain design, drain management and terrain.
3. Utilizing19rainfall monitoring data in and surrounding the research area and comparing calculation errors of different spatial interpolation methods, we will know that quadric surface fitting is the best method that can be used to calculate grid cell surface rainfall in Nanchang.
4. According to theory that rain drops to the ground, then becomes surface runoff and flows into drainage pipe, the calculation thinking of urban waterlogging is determined. First, calculate the initial depth of rain in the grid, then current flow on the grid channels and in drainage pipes and then water level in the grid the next moment. Mathematical models of waterlogging simulation have been determined, including calculation model of rainwater effective flow in each grid, dividing the grid in to land grid and watercourse grid according to surface features, flow calculation models of watercourse channels, land channels and land-watercourse channels according to the relations between bordering grids, calculation model of land grid drainage flow including drainage pipes and calculation model of ponding etc.
5. According to urban surface ponding converging process, calibration method of impermeable area percentage and roughness coefficient could be determined.
6. By using actually measured depth data for key waterlogging sections and analyzing waterlogging depth and level errors, the conclusion of similar simulation results and actual situation is reached. For same important sections, detailed analysis is conducted for initial rainfall intensity of waterlogging and time of highest waterlogging depth and recession time, providing the basis for urban drainage pipe network improvement.
7. For cutting-edge issues of disaster risk assessment, we proposed the city waterlogging risk assessment techniques and methods. By using the history precipitation data, we can testify and adjust the simulation waterlogging model. By using this model, we will get the frequency of different levels waterlogging disasters in different sections in Nanchang and the waterlogging-risk distribution map of Nanchang city. So we can give same advices to the mapping and transforming of the urban drainage network.
8. Concept of critical precipitation of torrential flood and geological disaster warning is introduced. The rainfall intensity of mild, moderate and severe waterlogging is defined as critical precipitation. And critical rainfall of different waterlogging levels is calculated, providing new methods for urban waterlogging warning serve.
9. Waterlogging disaster warning platform in Nanchang has been developed. Cutting edge issues such as formation mechanism, mathematical simulation, risk evaluation, supervision and warning for urban waterlogging have been studied by adopting comprehensively relevant scientific theories such as hydrology, weather and geography etc. And urban geographic information, drainage network, live monitoring data of rainfall and rainfall forecast materials have been fully taken advantage of for the research and development of urban rainstorm and waterlogging stimulation model and rainstorm and waterlogging warning system to realize mathematical simulation for rainstorm and waterlogging in Nanchang City. And research results with practical value, software copyright have been gained for integrated innovation.
引文
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