中国农业经济增长的空间效应分析
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摘要
“三农问题”是中国现代化过程中的重要问题，2004年和2009年的“一号文件”直接关注农民增收问题。但农民增收面临很多困难，如农产品价格低迷，农民就业难等。为此，国家通过减免农业税、农业补贴等惠农政策促进增收，国家从全局性到局部性制定农业经济政策，如优势区域布局、现代农业示范区等。虽然国内外有多位学者研究中国农业经济增长问题，但从县域角度定量探讨农业经济增长空间效应研究的较少。本文尝试引入空间自相关概念，研究中国农业经济增长中的空间依赖和空间溢出现象。
本文使用中国1995-2011年1590个县级面板资料，检验农业机械总动力、乡村从业人员、农用化肥使用量、农用化肥过度使用、播种面积、气温和降雨量与农业经济增长之间的关系，并在模型中加入空间因素，研究中国农业经济增长的影响，农业地区经济增长是否存在收敛性。本文的主要贡献在于：使用县级数据定量研究中国农业经济增长的空间聚集现象，空间溢出效应及要素分解和空间增长收敛性问题。
本研究的实证结果主要有：一是对农业经济增长数据进行探索式空间分析，分别利用全局型Moran’s I和Geary’s C，以及局部型Moran’s I和Getis与Ord’s G分析，结果表明存在显著正的空间自相关并判断出其区位；二是结合传统计量经济学和空间计量经济学进行实证分析，对固定效应估计模型获得的残差进行Moran’s I检验，发现存在空间依赖关系，在考虑空间因素后重新估计模型，结果表明模型的解释能力有所上升，存在显著正向空间溢出，空间杜宾模型反映邻县影响系数为0.931-0.939，其结果在不同权重矩阵下稳健。农业机械总动力、乡村从业人员、农用化肥使用量和播种面积对农业经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用，而农业化肥的过度使用与农业经济增长负相关，气温和降雨量对农业经济增长呈负向作用但不显著，此外在考虑东中西东北地区情况下具有一致性；三是将时间分成三段，进行绝对收敛和条件收敛性分析，结果显示全国，东部，西部地区不存在绝对收敛和条件收敛，中部地区存在条件收敛和部分时间段存在绝对收敛，东北地区部分时间段存在绝对收敛和条件收敛，并分别计算了对应收敛速度和半衰期。
从上述研究结论出发，有如下政策含义：打破行政区划界线，以经济发展区域为侧重点；继续强化农业机械化发展扶持力度，支持农业发展；保持适度规模的乡村从业人员，促进农业增长；科学合理使用农用化肥，发展现代农业；稳步扩增农作物播种面积，保障农业发展；重视气候变化，引导农业生产。
“Three rural issues” is an important issue in China's modernization process. The2004and2009“No.1Document” directly pays attention to the problem of farmers' income, but farmers' income faces alot of difficulties, such as the low prices on agricultural products and difficulty finding jobs. So ourcounty increases incomes through the preferential agricultural policies such as the exemption ofagricultural tax and agricultural subsidies, agricultural economic policy from the global to the locality,such as the advantages of regional distribution, modern agriculture demonstration zones. Althoughmany scholars at home and abroad study Chinese agricultural economic growth, the quantitativeanalysis is less from the county perspective of the spatial factors of the agricultural economic growth.Therefore, this paper attempts to introduce spatial autocorrelation, and to study the spatial dependenceof the agricultural economic growth and space spillovers. According to this, our country needs to takeaccount of regional planning in the formulation of policies, and to break the restrictions ofadministrative division.
This paper uses1590county-level panel data from1995to2011to explore the relationshipbetween the total agricultural machinery power, number of rural labors, agricultural consumption ofchemical fertilizer, agricultural fertilizer’s overuse, sown area, temperature and precipitation andAgricultural Economic Growth, and to add the spatial factors to the model, and to study the impact ofChina's economic growth of agriculture, whether there is a convergence of economic growth inagricultural areas. The main contribution in this paper is to: based on China county data, analysizagricultural economic growth’s spatial aggregation, agricultural spatial growth spillover and factordecomposition, spatial growth convergence.
Empirical results of this study display: Firstly, exploratory spatial agricultural economic growth indata analysis, respectively, use of global Moran's I and Geary's C, local Moran's I and Getis and Ord's Ganalysis, the results illustrate the presence of significant positive spatial autocorrelation and determineits location; Secondly, empirical analysis through the use of traditional econometric and spatialeconometrics, The residual Moran's I test showed the presence of spatial dependencies that wasestimated by fixed effects model, re-estimate the model. The results show that the explanatory power tothe model increased, there is a significant and positive spatial spillovers, spatial Durbin model reflectscoefficient of0.931-0.939about the neighboring counties. Different weight matrix’s result is robust.The relationship between total agricultural machinery power, number of rural labors and agriculturaleconomic growth is a positive effect, and the excessive use of agricultural fertilizers and agriculturaleconomic growth is negative. Temperature and rainfall negatively affect agricultural Economic Growthbut not significantly, in addition to considering the regions agricultural economic growth, there areconsistent results; Thirdly, the time is divided into three sections. The absolute convergence andconditional convergence analysis are estimated. All the country, eastern and western regions’ resultsshow that there is no absolute convergence and conditional convergence, while in the central region, there is conditional convergence and in part-time segment, there is absolute convergence, the northeastpartly has the absolute convergence and conditional convergence, and calculates the correspondingconvergence rate and half-life.
Based on the conclusions, made the following policy recommendations: to break the boundaries ofadministrative divisions, focusing on the area of economic development; continue to strengthen thedevelopment of agricultural mechanization, to support agricultural development; maintain anappropriate scale number of rural labors, promote agricultural growth; scientific and rational useagricultural fertilizers, to develop modern agriculture; steadily amplify crop sown areas, to protectagricultural development; great importance to climate change, to guide agricultural production.
本文使用中国1995-2011年1590个县级面板资料，检验农业机械总动力、乡村从业人员、农用化肥使用量、农用化肥过度使用、播种面积、气温和降雨量与农业经济增长之间的关系，并在模型中加入空间因素，研究中国农业经济增长的影响，农业地区经济增长是否存在收敛性。本文的主要贡献在于：使用县级数据定量研究中国农业经济增长的空间聚集现象，空间溢出效应及要素分解和空间增长收敛性问题。
本研究的实证结果主要有：一是对农业经济增长数据进行探索式空间分析，分别利用全局型Moran’s I和Geary’s C，以及局部型Moran’s I和Getis与Ord’s G分析，结果表明存在显著正的空间自相关并判断出其区位；二是结合传统计量经济学和空间计量经济学进行实证分析，对固定效应估计模型获得的残差进行Moran’s I检验，发现存在空间依赖关系，在考虑空间因素后重新估计模型，结果表明模型的解释能力有所上升，存在显著正向空间溢出，空间杜宾模型反映邻县影响系数为0.931-0.939，其结果在不同权重矩阵下稳健。农业机械总动力、乡村从业人员、农用化肥使用量和播种面积对农业经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用，而农业化肥的过度使用与农业经济增长负相关，气温和降雨量对农业经济增长呈负向作用但不显著，此外在考虑东中西东北地区情况下具有一致性；三是将时间分成三段，进行绝对收敛和条件收敛性分析，结果显示全国，东部，西部地区不存在绝对收敛和条件收敛，中部地区存在条件收敛和部分时间段存在绝对收敛，东北地区部分时间段存在绝对收敛和条件收敛，并分别计算了对应收敛速度和半衰期。
从上述研究结论出发，有如下政策含义：打破行政区划界线，以经济发展区域为侧重点；继续强化农业机械化发展扶持力度，支持农业发展；保持适度规模的乡村从业人员，促进农业增长；科学合理使用农用化肥，发展现代农业；稳步扩增农作物播种面积，保障农业发展；重视气候变化，引导农业生产。
“Three rural issues” is an important issue in China's modernization process. The2004and2009“No.1Document” directly pays attention to the problem of farmers' income, but farmers' income faces alot of difficulties, such as the low prices on agricultural products and difficulty finding jobs. So ourcounty increases incomes through the preferential agricultural policies such as the exemption ofagricultural tax and agricultural subsidies, agricultural economic policy from the global to the locality,such as the advantages of regional distribution, modern agriculture demonstration zones. Althoughmany scholars at home and abroad study Chinese agricultural economic growth, the quantitativeanalysis is less from the county perspective of the spatial factors of the agricultural economic growth.Therefore, this paper attempts to introduce spatial autocorrelation, and to study the spatial dependenceof the agricultural economic growth and space spillovers. According to this, our country needs to takeaccount of regional planning in the formulation of policies, and to break the restrictions ofadministrative division.
This paper uses1590county-level panel data from1995to2011to explore the relationshipbetween the total agricultural machinery power, number of rural labors, agricultural consumption ofchemical fertilizer, agricultural fertilizer’s overuse, sown area, temperature and precipitation andAgricultural Economic Growth, and to add the spatial factors to the model, and to study the impact ofChina's economic growth of agriculture, whether there is a convergence of economic growth inagricultural areas. The main contribution in this paper is to: based on China county data, analysizagricultural economic growth’s spatial aggregation, agricultural spatial growth spillover and factordecomposition, spatial growth convergence.
Empirical results of this study display: Firstly, exploratory spatial agricultural economic growth indata analysis, respectively, use of global Moran's I and Geary's C, local Moran's I and Getis and Ord's Ganalysis, the results illustrate the presence of significant positive spatial autocorrelation and determineits location; Secondly, empirical analysis through the use of traditional econometric and spatialeconometrics, The residual Moran's I test showed the presence of spatial dependencies that wasestimated by fixed effects model, re-estimate the model. The results show that the explanatory power tothe model increased, there is a significant and positive spatial spillovers, spatial Durbin model reflectscoefficient of0.931-0.939about the neighboring counties. Different weight matrix’s result is robust.The relationship between total agricultural machinery power, number of rural labors and agriculturaleconomic growth is a positive effect, and the excessive use of agricultural fertilizers and agriculturaleconomic growth is negative. Temperature and rainfall negatively affect agricultural Economic Growthbut not significantly, in addition to considering the regions agricultural economic growth, there areconsistent results; Thirdly, the time is divided into three sections. The absolute convergence andconditional convergence analysis are estimated. All the country, eastern and western regions’ resultsshow that there is no absolute convergence and conditional convergence, while in the central region, there is conditional convergence and in part-time segment, there is absolute convergence, the northeastpartly has the absolute convergence and conditional convergence, and calculates the correspondingconvergence rate and half-life.
Based on the conclusions, made the following policy recommendations: to break the boundaries ofadministrative divisions, focusing on the area of economic development; continue to strengthen thedevelopment of agricultural mechanization, to support agricultural development; maintain anappropriate scale number of rural labors, promote agricultural growth; scientific and rational useagricultural fertilizers, to develop modern agriculture; steadily amplify crop sown areas, to protectagricultural development; great importance to climate change, to guide agricultural production.
引文
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