涉农产业发展对居民收入分配的影响研究
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摘要
越来越多的现象表明农业的发展对缩小居民收入分配差距的作用正在缩小,这引起了对上世纪中期以来提出的“农业在经济发展中可以缩小居民收入分配差距”这一判断的质疑。同时,我们也看到在农业产前和产后部门发达的国家,如美国和日本,其居民收入分配差距相对较小；而在农业产前和产后部门不发达的国家,如印度、拉美等国家,其居民收入分配差距相对较大。那么,涉农产业发展与居民收入分配是否存在联系?围绕这一问题,本文将从以下三个方面去回答：现实经济数据是否已经反映了涉农产业发展对居民收入分配的影响?涉农产业发展影响居民收入分配的机理是什么?涉农产业发展政策对中国居民收入分配有什么影响?
本文首先把农业的概念和农业生产部门拓展到包括农业产前、产中和产后环节在内的涉农产业,这是因为农业是一个体系,不能仅从其中农业生产这一个部门去考察其发展的好坏。同时,也把农业的经济规模从农业生产部门拓宽到涉农产业,从增加值占GDP比重来看,中国涉农产业为27.1%,而农业生产部门只占10.5%(2005年数据),可见涉农产业在国民经济中是举足轻重的。然后,本文分别从统计、理论和政策模拟三个方面研究涉农产业发展对居民收入分配的影响。
本研究从国际层面和中国省级层面对涉农产业发展与居民收入差距的统计特征分析结果表明,涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距有积极作用。在涉农产业理论和增加值核算方法的指导下,本研究选取了涉农产业发展程度指标,核算了世界主要经济体和中国省级的涉农产业增加值及其构成。同时,根据经济学理论与现实经济状况,选择了反映居民收入差距的基尼系数指标和城乡人均居民收入比指标,从国际上主要的几个反映居民收入差距的数据库和中国统计数据搜集得到世界主要经济体和中国省级居民收入差距数据。在此基础上,本研究采用面板数据模型对国际层面和中国省级层面的涉农产业发展程度指标与居民收入差距指标进行回归分析,发现不管是国际层面还是中国省级层面,涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距都具有一定的积极作用。
本研究从基于非位似效用的结构增长理论和考虑产业关联与居民异质性的社会核算矩阵的理论研究表明,在分别考虑消费的恩格尔效应、产业关联性、居民异质性的情况下,涉农产业发展程度是随着经济发展水平的提高而增长的,涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的经验事实可以得到解释。基于两个理论的研究发现,第一,随着经济发展水平的提高,涉农产业发展程度也会随之提高。第二,在劳动力同质且在行业间无法流动或者存在流动成本时,涉农产业的发展可以起到缩小居民收入差距的作用。第三,在一个封闭的经济体中,当劳动类型存在差异,不同行业对不同类型劳动的需求存在差异,不同类型劳动的报酬存在差异,那么,涉农产业(不包括农业生产部门)的发展可以缩小居民收入差距。第四,当居民异质性程度较高,涉农产业发展虽然能够缩小整个经济体中的居民收入差距,但是可能会拉大某些群体内的居民收入差距。
本研究从基于非位似效用、产业关联性、居民异质性特征构建的可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型的政策模拟研究表明,以减免生产税为主的涉农产业发展政策可以缩小经济体的居民收入差距,但是,可能会使得经济体中某些群体内部居民收入差距的扩大。在考虑了宏观闭合和随机性之后,结论是稳健的。具体看：第一,农产品加工制造业的生产税减免政策对缩小居民收入差距在五部门中最有效。第二,城镇和农村内部的居民收入差距受涉农产业发展政策的影响有差异,城镇的居民收入差距在缩小,而农村居民收入差距有所扩大。第三,经济发达区域内部与经济欠发达区域内部的居民收入差距受涉农产业发展政策的影响有差异,经济发达区域的居民收入差距在缩小,而经济欠发达区域居民收入差距有所扩大。第四,结论在不同的宏观闭合选择和随机性设定下都是稳健的。
本研究是对已有文献研究的一个有价值的继承和拓展。第一,已有的涉农产业概念和核算研究,为本文的涉农产业发展的定义提供理论支撑,为涉农产业发展的核算提供了方法指导。在已有研究的通过涉农产业核算来体现涉农产业在国民经济中的重要性的基础上,本研究通过核算经济贸易合作组织成员国与主要发展中国家的涉农产业增加值和中国省级的涉农产业增加值,找出了涉农产业发展与经济发展水平之间的关系,并通过计量模型发现涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的积极作用。第二,已有的研究主要集中在农业发展和农业发展政策对居民收入差距的影响。这些研究佐证了对涉农产业发展对居民收入差距影响的进一步研究的必要性。对农业的关注,除了农业生产环节,也要关注农业投入部门的发展,要关注农产品加工制造部门的发展,要关注农产品流通服务部门的发展。第三,已有的研究已经在局部均衡框架下分析了涉农产业发展对相关利益群体的影响,这类文献为本研究在一般均衡框架下的分析提供了直观的认识,但是由于没有考虑对间接群体的影响,这类研究可能会得出相反的结论。因此,从涉农产业发展对整个经济体中居民收入差距的影响来看,采用一般均衡框架是有必要的。第四,已有的在一般均衡框架下的社会核算矩阵研究为本研究的一般均衡框架提供了产业关联和居民异质性分析的启示,并且也得到对本研究有启发的观点。但是,这类研究并没有考虑到居民消费的恩格尔效应对涉农产业发展的影响,同时,此类研究对居民的划分比较粗略,这使得其在研究涉农产业发展和居民收入分配这两个方面都存在缺陷。第五,已有的在一般均衡框架下的可计算一般均衡研究为本研究在构建居民消费和影响机制分析提供了指导。此类模型已经考虑了居民消费的恩格尔效应对涉农产业发展的影响,但是,由于对居民采用代表性居民来设定,使得模型在分析居民收入差异的环节存在不足。第六,已有的在一般均衡框架下的可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型的研究为本研究在考虑居民异质性方面提供了思路和方法。但是,此类研究并没有考虑模型本身的宏观闭合设定和随机性问题,而这两个问题关系到对宏观经济形势的判断和模型本身的可靠性。本研究则全面地考虑了这些问题。
本研究为支持涉农产业的发展提供理论支撑和现实依据。本文统计、理论和政策模拟三个层面揭示和解释了涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入分配差距的积极作用。本文使用国际层面和中国省级层面的相关数据,分析了涉农产业发展对居民收入分配差距影响,发现涉农产业的发展有利于缩小收入分配差距。本文从基于非位似效用函数的结构增长理论和包含产业关联与居民异质性的社会核算矩阵理论,在理论上阐述了涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的积极作用。本文也通过可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型模拟了涉农产业发展政策对中国居民收入分配的影响,也支持涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的作用。
本研究为政策制定者提供了较为适用的政策分析框架。本研究对CGE模型的宏观数据与微观模拟模型中的微观住户调查数据的结合方法的应用做了一次探索性的尝试研究。目前的主流经济学研究越来越注重微观数据及微观行为与宏观数据和宏观条件相结合,政策制定者也越来越关注政策的不同群体的差别效应。中国政府提出的“包容性增长”、“分享式增长”的经济发展模式,在关注平均居民收入的同时,更关注不同居民之间的收入差异,并希望让所有的居民都能在增长发展中获得福利的提高。虽然传统的CGE模型也可以对微观主体进行分析,但是这种分类仍然是采用代表性微观主体假设,因此无法真正反映微观主体间的差异,这样导致很多重要的信息被遗漏。CGE模型微观模拟技术可以将微观住户调查数据引入CGE模型中,这样就可以反映宏观与微观之间的互动关系,为综合利用宏观和微观数据提供一个视角。此外,由于微观住户调查数据中提供了每个家庭的所在区域,因此,可以模拟外生冲击对不同区域家庭的收入分布的影响。这一尝试为政策制定者考虑居民收入分配问题提供了政策分析工具。
本研究为涉农产业和居民收入分配的理论研究提供了新的数据处理方法。本文拓展了涉农产业增加值的核算方法。Furtuoso et al.(1998)虽然完善了Davis and Goldberg (1957)和Schluter et al.(1986)对涉农产业增加值的核算方法,但是,他们对农产品流通服务部门的计算时忽略了这个部门作为农业投入部门对农业生产部门的部分,因此,高估了农产品流通服务部门的增加值。本文则将这一部分从农产品流通服务部门中扣除。在已有社会核算矩阵编制方法的基础上,编制了中国涉农产业社会核算矩阵。本文根据国际产业分类标准和国际商品分类标准,先编制得到涉农产业投入产出表,在此基础上编制了涉农产业社会核算矩阵。在中国涉农产业社会核算矩阵的基础上,本文引入了中国住户调查数据中的微观家庭数据,并通过交叉熵方法,平衡得到了包括18035个家庭的中国涉农产业家庭细分社会核算矩阵。这一数据的编制为今后研究相关宏微观结合的问题提供了启发。
本研究深化了对农业对国民经济中重要性的理解。已有的发展经济学理论更多的是关注农业生产部门在国民经济中的作用,但是忽视了农业产前、产后环节的发展质量对农业重要性发挥的影响。本文认为只有一个农业产前、产后环节都有良性发展的涉农产业才能发挥农业在经济中的重要性。
The judgment that "agricultural development has positive impact on disparity" is questionned by more phenomenon which shows that the impact of agricultural development on income disparity is diminishing. Meanwhile, countries with strong agricultural pre-producing and after-producing sectors has relative low income disparity, such as the United States and Japan; countries with weak agricultural pre-producing and after-producing sectors has relative high income disparity, such as India and Latin Americans. Therefore, is there any relationship between agribusiness development and income disparity? Three questions are needed to answer about this issue:Does the data show that agribusiness development narrows income disparity? What is the mechanism of the influence of agribusiness development on income disparity? What is the impact of agribusiness developmental policy on income disparity in China?
This paper firstly extends the concept of agriculture from agricultural producing sector to agribusiness includes agricultural input sector, agricultural producing sector, agricultural processing sector and agricultural distributing sector, because agriculture is a system, and cannot be evaluated only in producing sector. Meanwhile, this paper also broads the economic scale from agricultural producing sector to agribusiness in terms of share of value added in GDP. Compared with the share of value added of agricultural producing sector in GDP with10.5%, the counterpart of agribusiness in GDP is27.1%in2005shows that agribusiness is an important industry in the economy. Then, this paper studies the impact of agribusiness development on income disparity in perspectives of statistics, theory and policy simulation separately.
The study shows that agribusiness development has positive impacts on narrowing income disparity from the statistic characteristics both at international level and provincial level in China. The study chooses the index for measuring the developmental degree for agribusiness under the guidance of agribusiness theory and method of value added accounting, and estimates the value added of agribusiness and its components for the main economies in the world and provinces in China. Meanwhile, the study selects GINI coefficient and income ratio between urban and rural areas as proxies for income disparity according to economic theory and economic reality, and collects these data from the main databases about international income disparity and China's statistic yearbooks in related years. The study finds out that the development of agribusiness could narrow income disparity both at international level and provincial level based on the panel data econometric model with different settings.
The study shows that statistic characteristics, such as the developmental degree of agribusiness is increasing with economic growth while agribusiness development could narrow income disparity, could be explained by Structural Growth theory with Non-Homothetic Utility which considers the consumer's Engel effect, and the Social Accounting Matrix theory which considers industrial linkage and households' heterogeneity. We find out the following implications from the above two theories: Firstly, the developmental degree of agribusiness will increase with economic growth. Secondly, agribusiness development may narrow income disparity in case of homogeneous labor with transaction cost for labor flow across industries. Thirdly, in a closed economy with different types of labor with different wages, and labor demands among different industries are different, the development of agribusiness (excluding the agricultural producing sector) could narrow income disparity. Fourthly, agribusiness development may increase income disparity in certain groups if households'have a high degree of heterogeneity.
The study builds a Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation model incorporated with Non-Homothetic Utility, Industrial Linkage and Households' Heterogeneity for policy analysis, and finds that the cut of production tax on agribusiness could narrow the whole country's income disparity, while the income disparity in certain groups may increase. This conclusion is robust under different macro closures and parameters'uncertainty. Specific conclusions are:Firstly, the cut of production tax on agricultural processing and manufacturing sector is the most effective to reduce the whole country's income disparity. Secondly, the impacts of agribusiness development policy on income disparity are different in urban with decreasing income disparity and rural areas with increasing income disparity. Thirdly, the impacts of agribusiness development policy on income disparity are different among rich regions with decreasing income disparity and poor regions with increasing income disparity. Fourthly, above conclusions are robust under different macro closures and parameters'uncertainty.
The study is a valuable inheritance and development of existing literature. Firstly, the existing concepts and measurement methods of agribusiness are theoretical foundations for this study. Based on the existing studies on showing the importance of agribusiness by economic accounting, this study measures the value added of agribusiness both at international level across OECD countries and main developing countries, and at provincial level in China, sheds light on the relationship between agribusiness development and economic growth, and shows that agribusiness development has positive effect on narrowing income disparity through panel data econometric model. Secondly, existing researches focus on the impact of agricultural development and agricultural development policies on income disparity. These studies show that it is necessary to study on the impact of agribusiness development on income disparity further. Researches on agriculture is not only focusing on agricultural producing sector, but also focusing on other sectors in agribusiness system. Thirdly, existing researches have studied the impact of agribusiness development on relative interest groups under the framework of partial equilibrium, and provide an intuitive understanding for the analysis under the framework of general equilibrium. The conclusion from partial equilibrium may be in contrast with that from general equilibrium, however, for lack of consideration with indirect impacts. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt the general equilibrium method for analyzing the impact of agribusiness development on income disparity economy-wide. Fourthly, existing researches of social accounting matrix provide the method of considering industrial linkage and household heterogeneity under general equilibrium, and also give inspiration for this research. However, such kinds of studies have not taken into consideration of consumer's Engel effect on agribusiness development. Meanwhile, such studies have not made detailed classification for households. Therefore, there are flaws both in study of agribusiness development and household's income distribution. Fifthly, existing researches on computable general equilibrium provide guidance for building the consumer behavior and its impact analysis. Although such models have considered the impact of consumer's Engel effect on agribusiness development, households in these models are representative, and they are insufficient for analyzing income disparity among heterogeneous households. Sixthly, existing researches on CGE micro-simulation models provide ideas and methods for studying households' heterogeneity. However, such models have not considered issues like macro closure and parameters' uncertainty, while these two issues are important for the robust of model. Our research takes both issues into account.
The study provides theoretical supports and evidences for agribusiness development. This paper explores and explains the positive impact of agribusiness development on income distribution in perspectives of statistics, theory and policy simulation. This paper adopts data from international level and china' provincial level to study and find out that agribusiness development has positive impact on income distribution in statistical perspective. This paper explains the positive impact of agribusiness development on income distribution based on the Structural Growth theory with Non-Homothetic Utility, and the Social Accounting Matrix theory with industrial linkage and households'heterogeneity. The simulation results from policy scenario based on computable general equilibrium micro simulation model support that agribusiness development has positive impact on income distribution.
The study provides policymakers with a comprehensive framework for policy analysis. The study tries to combine the CGE model with micro-simulation model for application. Recent academic studies pay more attention to consider both micro data and micro behavior with macro data and macro constraints, and policymakers also concern policy's distributional effects on different people. The slogans like "Inclusive growth" and "Sharing growth" proposed by Chinese government indicate that the goal of development is to let all people get access to share the fruits of economic growth. Although traditional CGE models also study on micro behavior, they assume few groups of representative households, so they could not reflect the difference among micro behaviors, and miss lots of important information. The CGE micro-simulation model incorporating micro household survey data into CGE model to reflect the interactive between macro and micro behaviors, and provides a perspective to utilize macro and micro data comprehensively. In addition, since the household survey contains geographical information for each household, we could simulate the impact of external shock on households'income disparity in different regions. This work provides a policy analysis tool for issues related with income distribution.
The study provides new data-processing methods for theoretical researches on agribusiness and income disparity. The study improves the accounting method for measuring value added of agribusiness. Furtuoso et al.(1998) made advance on the accounting methods proposed by Davis and Goldberh(1957) and Schluter et al.(1986), however, they also neglect the part of agricultural distribution sector as input of agricultural producing sector, and overestimate the value added of agricultural distribution sector. In this study, we more this part into agricultural input sector. The study compiles a Chinese agribusiness social accounting matrix. We first compile the agribusiness input output table according to the classifications of International Standard of Industrial Classification version3.1(ISIC3.1) and Central Product Classification (CPC), and incorporate household data from China Household Income Project (CHIP) and related information to compile the agribusiness social accounting matrix with18035household. The compilation of this data provides inspiration for future researches on issues both related with macro and micro behaviors.
The study deepens the understanding of the importance of agriculture in the national economy. Existing researches in development economics have focusd more on agricultural producing sector, but do not realize the importance of other sectors in agribusiness to agricultural producing sector. We contend that the role of agriculture in the national economy depends on the developments of other three sectors in agribusiness.
本文首先把农业的概念和农业生产部门拓展到包括农业产前、产中和产后环节在内的涉农产业,这是因为农业是一个体系,不能仅从其中农业生产这一个部门去考察其发展的好坏。同时,也把农业的经济规模从农业生产部门拓宽到涉农产业,从增加值占GDP比重来看,中国涉农产业为27.1%,而农业生产部门只占10.5%(2005年数据),可见涉农产业在国民经济中是举足轻重的。然后,本文分别从统计、理论和政策模拟三个方面研究涉农产业发展对居民收入分配的影响。
本研究从国际层面和中国省级层面对涉农产业发展与居民收入差距的统计特征分析结果表明,涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距有积极作用。在涉农产业理论和增加值核算方法的指导下,本研究选取了涉农产业发展程度指标,核算了世界主要经济体和中国省级的涉农产业增加值及其构成。同时,根据经济学理论与现实经济状况,选择了反映居民收入差距的基尼系数指标和城乡人均居民收入比指标,从国际上主要的几个反映居民收入差距的数据库和中国统计数据搜集得到世界主要经济体和中国省级居民收入差距数据。在此基础上,本研究采用面板数据模型对国际层面和中国省级层面的涉农产业发展程度指标与居民收入差距指标进行回归分析,发现不管是国际层面还是中国省级层面,涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距都具有一定的积极作用。
本研究从基于非位似效用的结构增长理论和考虑产业关联与居民异质性的社会核算矩阵的理论研究表明,在分别考虑消费的恩格尔效应、产业关联性、居民异质性的情况下,涉农产业发展程度是随着经济发展水平的提高而增长的,涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的经验事实可以得到解释。基于两个理论的研究发现,第一,随着经济发展水平的提高,涉农产业发展程度也会随之提高。第二,在劳动力同质且在行业间无法流动或者存在流动成本时,涉农产业的发展可以起到缩小居民收入差距的作用。第三,在一个封闭的经济体中,当劳动类型存在差异,不同行业对不同类型劳动的需求存在差异,不同类型劳动的报酬存在差异,那么,涉农产业(不包括农业生产部门)的发展可以缩小居民收入差距。第四,当居民异质性程度较高,涉农产业发展虽然能够缩小整个经济体中的居民收入差距,但是可能会拉大某些群体内的居民收入差距。
本研究从基于非位似效用、产业关联性、居民异质性特征构建的可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型的政策模拟研究表明,以减免生产税为主的涉农产业发展政策可以缩小经济体的居民收入差距,但是,可能会使得经济体中某些群体内部居民收入差距的扩大。在考虑了宏观闭合和随机性之后,结论是稳健的。具体看：第一,农产品加工制造业的生产税减免政策对缩小居民收入差距在五部门中最有效。第二,城镇和农村内部的居民收入差距受涉农产业发展政策的影响有差异,城镇的居民收入差距在缩小,而农村居民收入差距有所扩大。第三,经济发达区域内部与经济欠发达区域内部的居民收入差距受涉农产业发展政策的影响有差异,经济发达区域的居民收入差距在缩小,而经济欠发达区域居民收入差距有所扩大。第四,结论在不同的宏观闭合选择和随机性设定下都是稳健的。
本研究是对已有文献研究的一个有价值的继承和拓展。第一,已有的涉农产业概念和核算研究,为本文的涉农产业发展的定义提供理论支撑,为涉农产业发展的核算提供了方法指导。在已有研究的通过涉农产业核算来体现涉农产业在国民经济中的重要性的基础上,本研究通过核算经济贸易合作组织成员国与主要发展中国家的涉农产业增加值和中国省级的涉农产业增加值,找出了涉农产业发展与经济发展水平之间的关系,并通过计量模型发现涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的积极作用。第二,已有的研究主要集中在农业发展和农业发展政策对居民收入差距的影响。这些研究佐证了对涉农产业发展对居民收入差距影响的进一步研究的必要性。对农业的关注,除了农业生产环节,也要关注农业投入部门的发展,要关注农产品加工制造部门的发展,要关注农产品流通服务部门的发展。第三,已有的研究已经在局部均衡框架下分析了涉农产业发展对相关利益群体的影响,这类文献为本研究在一般均衡框架下的分析提供了直观的认识,但是由于没有考虑对间接群体的影响,这类研究可能会得出相反的结论。因此,从涉农产业发展对整个经济体中居民收入差距的影响来看,采用一般均衡框架是有必要的。第四,已有的在一般均衡框架下的社会核算矩阵研究为本研究的一般均衡框架提供了产业关联和居民异质性分析的启示,并且也得到对本研究有启发的观点。但是,这类研究并没有考虑到居民消费的恩格尔效应对涉农产业发展的影响,同时,此类研究对居民的划分比较粗略,这使得其在研究涉农产业发展和居民收入分配这两个方面都存在缺陷。第五,已有的在一般均衡框架下的可计算一般均衡研究为本研究在构建居民消费和影响机制分析提供了指导。此类模型已经考虑了居民消费的恩格尔效应对涉农产业发展的影响,但是,由于对居民采用代表性居民来设定,使得模型在分析居民收入差异的环节存在不足。第六,已有的在一般均衡框架下的可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型的研究为本研究在考虑居民异质性方面提供了思路和方法。但是,此类研究并没有考虑模型本身的宏观闭合设定和随机性问题,而这两个问题关系到对宏观经济形势的判断和模型本身的可靠性。本研究则全面地考虑了这些问题。
本研究为支持涉农产业的发展提供理论支撑和现实依据。本文统计、理论和政策模拟三个层面揭示和解释了涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入分配差距的积极作用。本文使用国际层面和中国省级层面的相关数据,分析了涉农产业发展对居民收入分配差距影响,发现涉农产业的发展有利于缩小收入分配差距。本文从基于非位似效用函数的结构增长理论和包含产业关联与居民异质性的社会核算矩阵理论,在理论上阐述了涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的积极作用。本文也通过可计算一般均衡微观模拟模型模拟了涉农产业发展政策对中国居民收入分配的影响,也支持涉农产业发展对缩小居民收入差距的作用。
本研究为政策制定者提供了较为适用的政策分析框架。本研究对CGE模型的宏观数据与微观模拟模型中的微观住户调查数据的结合方法的应用做了一次探索性的尝试研究。目前的主流经济学研究越来越注重微观数据及微观行为与宏观数据和宏观条件相结合,政策制定者也越来越关注政策的不同群体的差别效应。中国政府提出的“包容性增长”、“分享式增长”的经济发展模式,在关注平均居民收入的同时,更关注不同居民之间的收入差异,并希望让所有的居民都能在增长发展中获得福利的提高。虽然传统的CGE模型也可以对微观主体进行分析,但是这种分类仍然是采用代表性微观主体假设,因此无法真正反映微观主体间的差异,这样导致很多重要的信息被遗漏。CGE模型微观模拟技术可以将微观住户调查数据引入CGE模型中,这样就可以反映宏观与微观之间的互动关系,为综合利用宏观和微观数据提供一个视角。此外,由于微观住户调查数据中提供了每个家庭的所在区域,因此,可以模拟外生冲击对不同区域家庭的收入分布的影响。这一尝试为政策制定者考虑居民收入分配问题提供了政策分析工具。
本研究为涉农产业和居民收入分配的理论研究提供了新的数据处理方法。本文拓展了涉农产业增加值的核算方法。Furtuoso et al.(1998)虽然完善了Davis and Goldberg (1957)和Schluter et al.(1986)对涉农产业增加值的核算方法,但是,他们对农产品流通服务部门的计算时忽略了这个部门作为农业投入部门对农业生产部门的部分,因此,高估了农产品流通服务部门的增加值。本文则将这一部分从农产品流通服务部门中扣除。在已有社会核算矩阵编制方法的基础上,编制了中国涉农产业社会核算矩阵。本文根据国际产业分类标准和国际商品分类标准,先编制得到涉农产业投入产出表,在此基础上编制了涉农产业社会核算矩阵。在中国涉农产业社会核算矩阵的基础上,本文引入了中国住户调查数据中的微观家庭数据,并通过交叉熵方法,平衡得到了包括18035个家庭的中国涉农产业家庭细分社会核算矩阵。这一数据的编制为今后研究相关宏微观结合的问题提供了启发。
本研究深化了对农业对国民经济中重要性的理解。已有的发展经济学理论更多的是关注农业生产部门在国民经济中的作用,但是忽视了农业产前、产后环节的发展质量对农业重要性发挥的影响。本文认为只有一个农业产前、产后环节都有良性发展的涉农产业才能发挥农业在经济中的重要性。
The judgment that "agricultural development has positive impact on disparity" is questionned by more phenomenon which shows that the impact of agricultural development on income disparity is diminishing. Meanwhile, countries with strong agricultural pre-producing and after-producing sectors has relative low income disparity, such as the United States and Japan; countries with weak agricultural pre-producing and after-producing sectors has relative high income disparity, such as India and Latin Americans. Therefore, is there any relationship between agribusiness development and income disparity? Three questions are needed to answer about this issue:Does the data show that agribusiness development narrows income disparity? What is the mechanism of the influence of agribusiness development on income disparity? What is the impact of agribusiness developmental policy on income disparity in China?
This paper firstly extends the concept of agriculture from agricultural producing sector to agribusiness includes agricultural input sector, agricultural producing sector, agricultural processing sector and agricultural distributing sector, because agriculture is a system, and cannot be evaluated only in producing sector. Meanwhile, this paper also broads the economic scale from agricultural producing sector to agribusiness in terms of share of value added in GDP. Compared with the share of value added of agricultural producing sector in GDP with10.5%, the counterpart of agribusiness in GDP is27.1%in2005shows that agribusiness is an important industry in the economy. Then, this paper studies the impact of agribusiness development on income disparity in perspectives of statistics, theory and policy simulation separately.
The study shows that agribusiness development has positive impacts on narrowing income disparity from the statistic characteristics both at international level and provincial level in China. The study chooses the index for measuring the developmental degree for agribusiness under the guidance of agribusiness theory and method of value added accounting, and estimates the value added of agribusiness and its components for the main economies in the world and provinces in China. Meanwhile, the study selects GINI coefficient and income ratio between urban and rural areas as proxies for income disparity according to economic theory and economic reality, and collects these data from the main databases about international income disparity and China's statistic yearbooks in related years. The study finds out that the development of agribusiness could narrow income disparity both at international level and provincial level based on the panel data econometric model with different settings.
The study shows that statistic characteristics, such as the developmental degree of agribusiness is increasing with economic growth while agribusiness development could narrow income disparity, could be explained by Structural Growth theory with Non-Homothetic Utility which considers the consumer's Engel effect, and the Social Accounting Matrix theory which considers industrial linkage and households' heterogeneity. We find out the following implications from the above two theories: Firstly, the developmental degree of agribusiness will increase with economic growth. Secondly, agribusiness development may narrow income disparity in case of homogeneous labor with transaction cost for labor flow across industries. Thirdly, in a closed economy with different types of labor with different wages, and labor demands among different industries are different, the development of agribusiness (excluding the agricultural producing sector) could narrow income disparity. Fourthly, agribusiness development may increase income disparity in certain groups if households'have a high degree of heterogeneity.
The study builds a Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation model incorporated with Non-Homothetic Utility, Industrial Linkage and Households' Heterogeneity for policy analysis, and finds that the cut of production tax on agribusiness could narrow the whole country's income disparity, while the income disparity in certain groups may increase. This conclusion is robust under different macro closures and parameters'uncertainty. Specific conclusions are:Firstly, the cut of production tax on agricultural processing and manufacturing sector is the most effective to reduce the whole country's income disparity. Secondly, the impacts of agribusiness development policy on income disparity are different in urban with decreasing income disparity and rural areas with increasing income disparity. Thirdly, the impacts of agribusiness development policy on income disparity are different among rich regions with decreasing income disparity and poor regions with increasing income disparity. Fourthly, above conclusions are robust under different macro closures and parameters'uncertainty.
The study is a valuable inheritance and development of existing literature. Firstly, the existing concepts and measurement methods of agribusiness are theoretical foundations for this study. Based on the existing studies on showing the importance of agribusiness by economic accounting, this study measures the value added of agribusiness both at international level across OECD countries and main developing countries, and at provincial level in China, sheds light on the relationship between agribusiness development and economic growth, and shows that agribusiness development has positive effect on narrowing income disparity through panel data econometric model. Secondly, existing researches focus on the impact of agricultural development and agricultural development policies on income disparity. These studies show that it is necessary to study on the impact of agribusiness development on income disparity further. Researches on agriculture is not only focusing on agricultural producing sector, but also focusing on other sectors in agribusiness system. Thirdly, existing researches have studied the impact of agribusiness development on relative interest groups under the framework of partial equilibrium, and provide an intuitive understanding for the analysis under the framework of general equilibrium. The conclusion from partial equilibrium may be in contrast with that from general equilibrium, however, for lack of consideration with indirect impacts. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt the general equilibrium method for analyzing the impact of agribusiness development on income disparity economy-wide. Fourthly, existing researches of social accounting matrix provide the method of considering industrial linkage and household heterogeneity under general equilibrium, and also give inspiration for this research. However, such kinds of studies have not taken into consideration of consumer's Engel effect on agribusiness development. Meanwhile, such studies have not made detailed classification for households. Therefore, there are flaws both in study of agribusiness development and household's income distribution. Fifthly, existing researches on computable general equilibrium provide guidance for building the consumer behavior and its impact analysis. Although such models have considered the impact of consumer's Engel effect on agribusiness development, households in these models are representative, and they are insufficient for analyzing income disparity among heterogeneous households. Sixthly, existing researches on CGE micro-simulation models provide ideas and methods for studying households' heterogeneity. However, such models have not considered issues like macro closure and parameters' uncertainty, while these two issues are important for the robust of model. Our research takes both issues into account.
The study provides theoretical supports and evidences for agribusiness development. This paper explores and explains the positive impact of agribusiness development on income distribution in perspectives of statistics, theory and policy simulation. This paper adopts data from international level and china' provincial level to study and find out that agribusiness development has positive impact on income distribution in statistical perspective. This paper explains the positive impact of agribusiness development on income distribution based on the Structural Growth theory with Non-Homothetic Utility, and the Social Accounting Matrix theory with industrial linkage and households'heterogeneity. The simulation results from policy scenario based on computable general equilibrium micro simulation model support that agribusiness development has positive impact on income distribution.
The study provides policymakers with a comprehensive framework for policy analysis. The study tries to combine the CGE model with micro-simulation model for application. Recent academic studies pay more attention to consider both micro data and micro behavior with macro data and macro constraints, and policymakers also concern policy's distributional effects on different people. The slogans like "Inclusive growth" and "Sharing growth" proposed by Chinese government indicate that the goal of development is to let all people get access to share the fruits of economic growth. Although traditional CGE models also study on micro behavior, they assume few groups of representative households, so they could not reflect the difference among micro behaviors, and miss lots of important information. The CGE micro-simulation model incorporating micro household survey data into CGE model to reflect the interactive between macro and micro behaviors, and provides a perspective to utilize macro and micro data comprehensively. In addition, since the household survey contains geographical information for each household, we could simulate the impact of external shock on households'income disparity in different regions. This work provides a policy analysis tool for issues related with income distribution.
The study provides new data-processing methods for theoretical researches on agribusiness and income disparity. The study improves the accounting method for measuring value added of agribusiness. Furtuoso et al.(1998) made advance on the accounting methods proposed by Davis and Goldberh(1957) and Schluter et al.(1986), however, they also neglect the part of agricultural distribution sector as input of agricultural producing sector, and overestimate the value added of agricultural distribution sector. In this study, we more this part into agricultural input sector. The study compiles a Chinese agribusiness social accounting matrix. We first compile the agribusiness input output table according to the classifications of International Standard of Industrial Classification version3.1(ISIC3.1) and Central Product Classification (CPC), and incorporate household data from China Household Income Project (CHIP) and related information to compile the agribusiness social accounting matrix with18035household. The compilation of this data provides inspiration for future researches on issues both related with macro and micro behaviors.
The study deepens the understanding of the importance of agriculture in the national economy. Existing researches in development economics have focusd more on agricultural producing sector, but do not realize the importance of other sectors in agribusiness to agricultural producing sector. We contend that the role of agriculture in the national economy depends on the developments of other three sectors in agribusiness.
引文
① 该小节的内容已发表在《中国管理科学》2009年第5期。
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