区域经济发展不同阶段的产业序列研究
|
摘要
加快产业结构调整,转变经济发展方式,是我国国民经济实现科学发展的必由之路。中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要明确指出,要坚持把经济结构战略性调整作为加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向,加强农业基础地位,提升制造业核心竞争力,发展战略性新兴产业,加快发展服务业,促进经济增长向依靠第一、第二、第三产业协同带动转变。作为国民经济的具体经济单元,区域经济的发展也必须以加快转变经济发展方式为主线,通过制订合理的产业政策来引导市场主体优化资源配置,通过改变区域经济中不同产业所处的位次来实现优化产业结构的优化、升级。为此,本文首次提出了产业序列的概念,试图在进一步深化产业结构理论的基础上,为区域产业政策的制订提供一个新的视角。
产业序列是指在某一时点上,一个国家或地区的经济体系内各产业按照一定的规则进行排列所形成的有序组合。本文以经济发展和产业结构的相关理论为基础,以区域经济为研究对象,系统讨论了区域经济发展不同阶段产业序列的若干问题。采用归纳分析法和数理分析法,研究了产业序列内涵、形成原因、影响因素等基本问题；运用经验分析法,研究了区域产业序列形成和发展的特征等问题；运用实证分析法和比较分析法,深入探讨了南京市浦口区产业序列的现状特征和主要问题,分析了该区与其他相似地区之间产业序列的差异,并按照优化产业序列、调整产业结构的要求,提出了若干对策建议。
首先,本文在回顾国内外相关文献的基础上,对经济增长、产业结构演进历程和机理等理论成果进行了梳理。现有的研究表明,在经济发展过程中,普遍存在着产业结构的规律性演进现象,一方面,由于需求、技术、制度、创新等因素的共同作用,导致要素在不同产业部门之间的流动,从而表现出产业结构的变动；另一方面,这种要素的流动实际上是依循着效率原则,由于不同产业所处的产业生命周期不同,各个产业所投入的要素的边际效率也就存在着差别,而土地、资本、劳动等生产要素总是向着边际效率更高的产业部门流动,这种生产要素从低效率部门向高效率部门的流动自然会带来产业结构变动基础上的经济增长。由此可见,要素的流动带来不同产业部门的此消彼涨,导致产业结构的转换,产业结构的优化升级己成为现代经济增长的内生变量。进一步的研究表明,产业结构演变是有规律可循的,区域经济发展中的产业结构变动既遵循着产业结构演进的一般规律,也由于其自身的特点而具有一定的特殊性。现有的研究文献浩繁而精深,是我们认识和讨论经济发展与产业结构演变问题的重要基础,但是如果要进一步深入探讨一个区域的经济发展与产业结构的关系问题,并寻求区域产业结构的优化方案,有必要引入产业序列的范畴。
其次,本文在引入产业序列概念的基础上,对产业序列的形成与变动进行了一般理论分析。本文借助新古典经济学中的生产者行为理论、消费者行为理论以及生产与交换的一般均衡理论建立数理模型,重点构建了分析产业序列的一般理论框架,对研究所要阐述的产业序列的内涵作出了具体的界定,明确了经济发展、产业结构和产业序列三者之间的关系,深入剖析了产业序列与产业结构的关系以及产业结构的政策含义,进一步解释了一定时期产业序列形成的原因,并从供求因素、技术因素等方面分析了影响产业序列变动的因素。
再次,本文在对区域经济的基本属性进行归纳与阐释的基础上,分析了区域产业序列的形成与特征。本文认为,在国民经济整体运行背景下,区域经济具有有限自主化特点；在市场一体化背景下,区域资源配置具有相对内部化特点；在宏观经济政策导向下,区域经济政策工具具有有限化特点；在经济发展总体阶段定位下,区域经济阶段具有与经济总体的非一致化特点；在国民经济总体产业序列下,区域产业序列的具有非标准化特点。一个地区的产业序列的形成取决于资源禀赋、产业基础、内部需求、外部拉动等方面的因素,并进一步导致区域产业序列有着五个方面的特征,即：整个产业的向上体系化与向下分散化、单个产业的向上链式化与向下节点化、产业之间的向上关联化与向下孤立化、经济发展阶段的跳跃性与产业序列的非标准型、产业发展的多向性与产业序列选择的非必然性。
同时,基于上述分析,本文以南京市浦口区为例,对浦口区的经济发展、产业结构、产业序列、产业政策等问题进行了实证分析。本文在概括了浦口区经济发展的条件与基础,对改革开放以来浦口经济发展的阶段进行了划分,分析了浦口经济发展不同阶段的主导产业和产业结构。运用统计分析方法,描述了浦口区产业序列的构成,并建立了浦口产业序列的评价指标体系。进一步地,通过实证分析,研究了浦口区不同经济发展阶段的产业序列变动的影响因素,主要包括居民收入水平、投资需求水平城市化水平、工业化水平、市场化水平和对外开放程度等。然后,选取与南京市浦口区相邻近的栖霞区和江宁区作为比较对象,来与浦口区本身进行区域产业序列特征的比较分析。研究了不同区域产业序列不同的总体特征,比较了不同区域产业序列的主要差异,并进一步指出引致不同区域产业序列差异化的主要原因。
最后,在对浦口产业序列进行分阶段测定的基础上,分析和预测浦口产业序列的演进趋势,通过对浦口经济发展不同阶段的产业序列选择进行利弊分析,明确浦口区工业化中后期阶段产业序列发展的调整方向,并且提出浦口产业序列的优化路径。阐明重塑浦口区产业序列的一系列政策选择,保障浦口产业序列进一步提升和优化,这些政策包括：(1)强化政府政策引导,明确产业序列重塑方向；(2)大力发展产业集群,加快产业序列重塑进程；(3)稳步提升城市化水平,推动产业序列优化发展；(4)合理调整收入结构,加速产业序列目标实现。
总之,对区域经济发展不同阶段产业序列的研究有助于我们深刻认识区域产业结构的演进特征,有助于明确不同地区区域产业结构的不同发展方向,对于区域经济和国民经济的产业转型升级都具有很强的理论意义和现实意义。“十二五”期间,浦口区产业序列的优化应当依循这样的路径：以政府为引导,以市场为主导,努力提升传统产业、积极发展高端服务业、着力发展战略性新兴产业。利用特色资源,发展生态循环型经济,巩固和完善为农服务、观光旅游等服务业；发挥区位优势,发展批发零售、交通运输等传统服务业,同时,现代服务业及新兴服务业的发展,变“工业→服务业→农业”的产业序列为“服务业→工业→农业”、变“服务业推动工业、农业”的发展模式为“服务业引领工业、农业”的发展模式。
To speed up industrial restructuring and transformation of economic development pattern is the only way for China's national economy to realize scientific development. The12th Five Year Plan for the People's Republic of China's National Economic and Social Development explicitly pointed out that we will continue to focus on economic restructuring in changing the pattern of development, to strengthen the position of agriculture as the foundation of the economy, to improve the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry, to develop strategic emerging industry, to speed up the development of service industry, to promote economic growth to rely on coordinated development of primary, secondary and tertiary industry. As a specific economic unit of national economy, the development of regional economy must also take accelerating the transformation of economic development pattern as the main line, to guide the market subjects to optimize the allocation of resources by formulating reasonable industrial policies, to realize the optimizing and upgrading of industrial structure by the changing the precedence of different industries in regional economy. Therefore, this paper puts forward the concept of industrial sequence for the first time in the attempt to further deepen the theory of industrial structure, on the basis of which, to provide a new perspective for regional industrial policies.
Industrial sequence is, on a time point, an orderly industry group formed according to certain rules in a country or a region's economic system. Based on relevant theory of economic development and industrial structure, several issues of industry sequence in regional economic development of different phases are discussed in the paper with the regional economy as the research object. Inductive analysis and mathematical analysis are used to study the fundamental issues such as the connotation, cause and influencing factor of industrial sequence; experience analysis is used to study the characteristics of formation and development of regional industrial sequence; empirical analysis and comparison analysis are used to probe into the status and main problems of industrial sequence in Pukou district, Nanjing, analyze the difference of industrial sequence between this region and other similar areas and put forward some countermeasures according to the optimization of industrial sequence and the demand to adjust the industrial structure.
First, based on reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad, those theories on economic growth and industrial structure evolution and mechanisms are combed in this paper. Current research shows that in the economic development process, the regularity phenomenon of industrial structure evolution universally exists, on the one hand, the joint action of factors such as demand, technology, system and innovation result in elements flow in various sectors, thus showing the evolution of industrial structure; on the other hand, the elements actually flow according to the principle of efficiency, as different industries are in different phases of industry life cycle, the marginal efficiency of the elements brought into different industries will be different, and the production elements such as land, capital and labor always move towards higher marginal efficiency departments, which will naturally bring economic growth on the basis of industrial structure evolution. Thus, elements flow brings gluttony to various sectors and lead to the transformation of the industrial structure, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has become the endogenous variable for modern economic growth. Further research suggests that the evolution of industrial structure has rules to follow and the evolution of industrial structure in regional economic development follows the general rule of industrial structure evolution, also has some particularity because of its own characteristics. The existing research which is extensive and profound, is the important bases to understand and discuss the issues as economic development and the evolution of industrial structure, but if we want to further explore the relationship between regional economic development and industrial structure and to seek the optimization scheme of regional industrial structure, it is necessary to introduce the category of industrial sequence.
Secondly, the general theory analysis is used to study the formation and evolution of industrial sequence in the paper on the basis of the introduction of industrial sequence concept. Producer behavior theory, consumer behaviors theory and the equilibrium theory of production and exchange in neoclassical economics are used to establish mathematical model, to intensively build the theoretical framework for analyzing industry sequence, to specifically define the connotation of industrial sequence as well as the relationship between economic development, industrial structure and industrial sequence, to intensively analyze the relationship between industrial structure and industrial sequence as well as policy implications of industrial sequence, to further explain the causes of industrial sequence formation in a certain period, and to analyze the factors affecting industrial sequence evolution on terms of supply and demand factors, technical factors and so on.
Thirdly, the basic attributes of regional economy are summarized and interpreted in the paper to analyze the features and formation of regional industrial sequence. The paper maintains that regional economy has the characteristic of finite autonomization under the background of the overall operation in national economy, regional resource allocation has the characteristic of relative internalization under the background of market integration, regional economic policy tool has the characteristic of limitation under the macroeconomic policy guidance, regional economic stage is not consistent with the national economy under the overall stage positioning in economic development, regional industrial sequence has the characteristic of nonstandard under the national economy industrial sequence. The form of a region's industrial sequence depends on the factors such as resource endowment, industry base, internal demand and external drive, which further causes regional industry to get such five characteristics as the upward systematization and downward decentralization of a whole industry, the upward chain-up and downward node of a single industry, the upward association and downward isolation of different industries, the bouncing of economic development phase and the non-standard of industrial sequence, the diversity of industrial development and the non-necessity of industrial sequence choice.
Meanwhile, based on the above analysis, empirical analysis is used to analyze such issues as economic development, industrial structure, industrial sequence and industrial policy of Pukou district, Nanjing. The conditions and basis of Pukou economic development is summarized, the economic development stage since the reform and opening up is classified, and the leading industry and the industrial structure in different stages of economic development are analyzed in the paper. Statistical analysis is used to describe the group of industrial sequence and to establish the evaluation index system of industrial sequence in Pukou district. Furthermore, empirical analysis is used to study the influence factors of industrial sequence evolution in different phases of economic development in Pukou district, including the resident income level, investment demand level, urbanization level, industrialization level and marketization level and opening degree, etc. Qixia district and Jiangning district which are near to Pukou district are chosen as the object to made comparative analysis on the characteristics of regional industrial sequence in Pukou district. The overall characteristics of different regional industry sequences are studied in this paper. The main differences between different regional industry sequences are compared. And then the reason for the differences is pointed out in this paper.
Finally, industrial sequence of Pukou district is measured by phase, on the basis of which, the developing trend of industry sequence in Pukou district is analyzed and predicted in this paper. The strength and weakness analyses is made on the industry sequence in different economic development phases of Pukou district to confirm the path to follow for the development of industry sequence in the mid-and-late stage of industrialization in Pukou district, and then to put forward the optimizing path for the industry sequence of Pukou district. A series of policies are illustrated to rebuild and to guarantee the advancing and optimization of the industry sequence of Pukou district. These policies includes:(1) to strengthen the guiding role of government policy confirm reshape direction of industrial sequence;(2) to strive to develop industrial clusters and speed up the reshape process of industrial sequence;(3) to steadily improve the urbanization level and promote the optimization development of industrial sequence;(4) to reasonably adjust the income structure and accelerate the realization of industrial sequence objectives.
To sum up, the study on industrial sequence in different stages of regional economic development can help us gain a deep understanding of the evolution characteristics of regional industrial structure and confirm the different development direction of regional industrial structure in different regions, which means great theoretical and realistic significances for the industrial transformation and upgrading of regional economy and national economy. In the12th Five-Year period, the optimization of industrial sequence in Pukou district shall follow this path:led by the government, being market-oriented, to strive to improve traditional industries, to vigorously develop high-end services and to focus on developing strategic emerging industries, to develop ecological circular economy and to consolidate and improve service industries as tourism and service for the agriculture industry by using the distinguishing resources, to develop traditional service industries as wholesale trade, retail trade and communications and transportation, and at the same time, modern service industries and emerging service industries by bring geographical advantages into full play, to turn the industrial sequence of "industry→service industry→agriculture industry" to "service industry→industry→agriculture industry", to turn the development model of "service industry promoting industry and agriculture industry" to "service industry leading industry and agriculture industry"
产业序列是指在某一时点上,一个国家或地区的经济体系内各产业按照一定的规则进行排列所形成的有序组合。本文以经济发展和产业结构的相关理论为基础,以区域经济为研究对象,系统讨论了区域经济发展不同阶段产业序列的若干问题。采用归纳分析法和数理分析法,研究了产业序列内涵、形成原因、影响因素等基本问题；运用经验分析法,研究了区域产业序列形成和发展的特征等问题；运用实证分析法和比较分析法,深入探讨了南京市浦口区产业序列的现状特征和主要问题,分析了该区与其他相似地区之间产业序列的差异,并按照优化产业序列、调整产业结构的要求,提出了若干对策建议。
首先,本文在回顾国内外相关文献的基础上,对经济增长、产业结构演进历程和机理等理论成果进行了梳理。现有的研究表明,在经济发展过程中,普遍存在着产业结构的规律性演进现象,一方面,由于需求、技术、制度、创新等因素的共同作用,导致要素在不同产业部门之间的流动,从而表现出产业结构的变动；另一方面,这种要素的流动实际上是依循着效率原则,由于不同产业所处的产业生命周期不同,各个产业所投入的要素的边际效率也就存在着差别,而土地、资本、劳动等生产要素总是向着边际效率更高的产业部门流动,这种生产要素从低效率部门向高效率部门的流动自然会带来产业结构变动基础上的经济增长。由此可见,要素的流动带来不同产业部门的此消彼涨,导致产业结构的转换,产业结构的优化升级己成为现代经济增长的内生变量。进一步的研究表明,产业结构演变是有规律可循的,区域经济发展中的产业结构变动既遵循着产业结构演进的一般规律,也由于其自身的特点而具有一定的特殊性。现有的研究文献浩繁而精深,是我们认识和讨论经济发展与产业结构演变问题的重要基础,但是如果要进一步深入探讨一个区域的经济发展与产业结构的关系问题,并寻求区域产业结构的优化方案,有必要引入产业序列的范畴。
其次,本文在引入产业序列概念的基础上,对产业序列的形成与变动进行了一般理论分析。本文借助新古典经济学中的生产者行为理论、消费者行为理论以及生产与交换的一般均衡理论建立数理模型,重点构建了分析产业序列的一般理论框架,对研究所要阐述的产业序列的内涵作出了具体的界定,明确了经济发展、产业结构和产业序列三者之间的关系,深入剖析了产业序列与产业结构的关系以及产业结构的政策含义,进一步解释了一定时期产业序列形成的原因,并从供求因素、技术因素等方面分析了影响产业序列变动的因素。
再次,本文在对区域经济的基本属性进行归纳与阐释的基础上,分析了区域产业序列的形成与特征。本文认为,在国民经济整体运行背景下,区域经济具有有限自主化特点；在市场一体化背景下,区域资源配置具有相对内部化特点；在宏观经济政策导向下,区域经济政策工具具有有限化特点；在经济发展总体阶段定位下,区域经济阶段具有与经济总体的非一致化特点；在国民经济总体产业序列下,区域产业序列的具有非标准化特点。一个地区的产业序列的形成取决于资源禀赋、产业基础、内部需求、外部拉动等方面的因素,并进一步导致区域产业序列有着五个方面的特征,即：整个产业的向上体系化与向下分散化、单个产业的向上链式化与向下节点化、产业之间的向上关联化与向下孤立化、经济发展阶段的跳跃性与产业序列的非标准型、产业发展的多向性与产业序列选择的非必然性。
同时,基于上述分析,本文以南京市浦口区为例,对浦口区的经济发展、产业结构、产业序列、产业政策等问题进行了实证分析。本文在概括了浦口区经济发展的条件与基础,对改革开放以来浦口经济发展的阶段进行了划分,分析了浦口经济发展不同阶段的主导产业和产业结构。运用统计分析方法,描述了浦口区产业序列的构成,并建立了浦口产业序列的评价指标体系。进一步地,通过实证分析,研究了浦口区不同经济发展阶段的产业序列变动的影响因素,主要包括居民收入水平、投资需求水平城市化水平、工业化水平、市场化水平和对外开放程度等。然后,选取与南京市浦口区相邻近的栖霞区和江宁区作为比较对象,来与浦口区本身进行区域产业序列特征的比较分析。研究了不同区域产业序列不同的总体特征,比较了不同区域产业序列的主要差异,并进一步指出引致不同区域产业序列差异化的主要原因。
最后,在对浦口产业序列进行分阶段测定的基础上,分析和预测浦口产业序列的演进趋势,通过对浦口经济发展不同阶段的产业序列选择进行利弊分析,明确浦口区工业化中后期阶段产业序列发展的调整方向,并且提出浦口产业序列的优化路径。阐明重塑浦口区产业序列的一系列政策选择,保障浦口产业序列进一步提升和优化,这些政策包括：(1)强化政府政策引导,明确产业序列重塑方向；(2)大力发展产业集群,加快产业序列重塑进程；(3)稳步提升城市化水平,推动产业序列优化发展；(4)合理调整收入结构,加速产业序列目标实现。
总之,对区域经济发展不同阶段产业序列的研究有助于我们深刻认识区域产业结构的演进特征,有助于明确不同地区区域产业结构的不同发展方向,对于区域经济和国民经济的产业转型升级都具有很强的理论意义和现实意义。“十二五”期间,浦口区产业序列的优化应当依循这样的路径：以政府为引导,以市场为主导,努力提升传统产业、积极发展高端服务业、着力发展战略性新兴产业。利用特色资源,发展生态循环型经济,巩固和完善为农服务、观光旅游等服务业；发挥区位优势,发展批发零售、交通运输等传统服务业,同时,现代服务业及新兴服务业的发展,变“工业→服务业→农业”的产业序列为“服务业→工业→农业”、变“服务业推动工业、农业”的发展模式为“服务业引领工业、农业”的发展模式。
To speed up industrial restructuring and transformation of economic development pattern is the only way for China's national economy to realize scientific development. The12th Five Year Plan for the People's Republic of China's National Economic and Social Development explicitly pointed out that we will continue to focus on economic restructuring in changing the pattern of development, to strengthen the position of agriculture as the foundation of the economy, to improve the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry, to develop strategic emerging industry, to speed up the development of service industry, to promote economic growth to rely on coordinated development of primary, secondary and tertiary industry. As a specific economic unit of national economy, the development of regional economy must also take accelerating the transformation of economic development pattern as the main line, to guide the market subjects to optimize the allocation of resources by formulating reasonable industrial policies, to realize the optimizing and upgrading of industrial structure by the changing the precedence of different industries in regional economy. Therefore, this paper puts forward the concept of industrial sequence for the first time in the attempt to further deepen the theory of industrial structure, on the basis of which, to provide a new perspective for regional industrial policies.
Industrial sequence is, on a time point, an orderly industry group formed according to certain rules in a country or a region's economic system. Based on relevant theory of economic development and industrial structure, several issues of industry sequence in regional economic development of different phases are discussed in the paper with the regional economy as the research object. Inductive analysis and mathematical analysis are used to study the fundamental issues such as the connotation, cause and influencing factor of industrial sequence; experience analysis is used to study the characteristics of formation and development of regional industrial sequence; empirical analysis and comparison analysis are used to probe into the status and main problems of industrial sequence in Pukou district, Nanjing, analyze the difference of industrial sequence between this region and other similar areas and put forward some countermeasures according to the optimization of industrial sequence and the demand to adjust the industrial structure.
First, based on reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad, those theories on economic growth and industrial structure evolution and mechanisms are combed in this paper. Current research shows that in the economic development process, the regularity phenomenon of industrial structure evolution universally exists, on the one hand, the joint action of factors such as demand, technology, system and innovation result in elements flow in various sectors, thus showing the evolution of industrial structure; on the other hand, the elements actually flow according to the principle of efficiency, as different industries are in different phases of industry life cycle, the marginal efficiency of the elements brought into different industries will be different, and the production elements such as land, capital and labor always move towards higher marginal efficiency departments, which will naturally bring economic growth on the basis of industrial structure evolution. Thus, elements flow brings gluttony to various sectors and lead to the transformation of the industrial structure, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has become the endogenous variable for modern economic growth. Further research suggests that the evolution of industrial structure has rules to follow and the evolution of industrial structure in regional economic development follows the general rule of industrial structure evolution, also has some particularity because of its own characteristics. The existing research which is extensive and profound, is the important bases to understand and discuss the issues as economic development and the evolution of industrial structure, but if we want to further explore the relationship between regional economic development and industrial structure and to seek the optimization scheme of regional industrial structure, it is necessary to introduce the category of industrial sequence.
Secondly, the general theory analysis is used to study the formation and evolution of industrial sequence in the paper on the basis of the introduction of industrial sequence concept. Producer behavior theory, consumer behaviors theory and the equilibrium theory of production and exchange in neoclassical economics are used to establish mathematical model, to intensively build the theoretical framework for analyzing industry sequence, to specifically define the connotation of industrial sequence as well as the relationship between economic development, industrial structure and industrial sequence, to intensively analyze the relationship between industrial structure and industrial sequence as well as policy implications of industrial sequence, to further explain the causes of industrial sequence formation in a certain period, and to analyze the factors affecting industrial sequence evolution on terms of supply and demand factors, technical factors and so on.
Thirdly, the basic attributes of regional economy are summarized and interpreted in the paper to analyze the features and formation of regional industrial sequence. The paper maintains that regional economy has the characteristic of finite autonomization under the background of the overall operation in national economy, regional resource allocation has the characteristic of relative internalization under the background of market integration, regional economic policy tool has the characteristic of limitation under the macroeconomic policy guidance, regional economic stage is not consistent with the national economy under the overall stage positioning in economic development, regional industrial sequence has the characteristic of nonstandard under the national economy industrial sequence. The form of a region's industrial sequence depends on the factors such as resource endowment, industry base, internal demand and external drive, which further causes regional industry to get such five characteristics as the upward systematization and downward decentralization of a whole industry, the upward chain-up and downward node of a single industry, the upward association and downward isolation of different industries, the bouncing of economic development phase and the non-standard of industrial sequence, the diversity of industrial development and the non-necessity of industrial sequence choice.
Meanwhile, based on the above analysis, empirical analysis is used to analyze such issues as economic development, industrial structure, industrial sequence and industrial policy of Pukou district, Nanjing. The conditions and basis of Pukou economic development is summarized, the economic development stage since the reform and opening up is classified, and the leading industry and the industrial structure in different stages of economic development are analyzed in the paper. Statistical analysis is used to describe the group of industrial sequence and to establish the evaluation index system of industrial sequence in Pukou district. Furthermore, empirical analysis is used to study the influence factors of industrial sequence evolution in different phases of economic development in Pukou district, including the resident income level, investment demand level, urbanization level, industrialization level and marketization level and opening degree, etc. Qixia district and Jiangning district which are near to Pukou district are chosen as the object to made comparative analysis on the characteristics of regional industrial sequence in Pukou district. The overall characteristics of different regional industry sequences are studied in this paper. The main differences between different regional industry sequences are compared. And then the reason for the differences is pointed out in this paper.
Finally, industrial sequence of Pukou district is measured by phase, on the basis of which, the developing trend of industry sequence in Pukou district is analyzed and predicted in this paper. The strength and weakness analyses is made on the industry sequence in different economic development phases of Pukou district to confirm the path to follow for the development of industry sequence in the mid-and-late stage of industrialization in Pukou district, and then to put forward the optimizing path for the industry sequence of Pukou district. A series of policies are illustrated to rebuild and to guarantee the advancing and optimization of the industry sequence of Pukou district. These policies includes:(1) to strengthen the guiding role of government policy confirm reshape direction of industrial sequence;(2) to strive to develop industrial clusters and speed up the reshape process of industrial sequence;(3) to steadily improve the urbanization level and promote the optimization development of industrial sequence;(4) to reasonably adjust the income structure and accelerate the realization of industrial sequence objectives.
To sum up, the study on industrial sequence in different stages of regional economic development can help us gain a deep understanding of the evolution characteristics of regional industrial structure and confirm the different development direction of regional industrial structure in different regions, which means great theoretical and realistic significances for the industrial transformation and upgrading of regional economy and national economy. In the12th Five-Year period, the optimization of industrial sequence in Pukou district shall follow this path:led by the government, being market-oriented, to strive to improve traditional industries, to vigorously develop high-end services and to focus on developing strategic emerging industries, to develop ecological circular economy and to consolidate and improve service industries as tourism and service for the agriculture industry by using the distinguishing resources, to develop traditional service industries as wholesale trade, retail trade and communications and transportation, and at the same time, modern service industries and emerging service industries by bring geographical advantages into full play, to turn the industrial sequence of "industry→service industry→agriculture industry" to "service industry→industry→agriculture industry", to turn the development model of "service industry promoting industry and agriculture industry" to "service industry leading industry and agriculture industry"
引文
1 西蒙·库兹涅茨.现代经济增长[M].北京：北京经济学院出版社,1989.
2 W. W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth:A Non-Communist Manifesto [M].Cambridge University Press,1960.
2 钱纳里等.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989.
4 Singelman and Browning. The transformation of the US labor force[J].Politics and Society,1978:481-509.
5 杨治.论产业政策[J].宏观经济研究,1988(8)：49-55.
6 郭克莎.第三产业的结构优化与高效发展[J].财贸经济,2000(10)：51-56.
7 龚仰军.产业结构研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2002.
8 潘淑清.产业结构变动与经济增长关系的统计研究[D].江西：江西财经大学,2002(4)：3-7.
9 李京文.中国产业结构的变化与发展趋势[J].当代财经,1998(5)：12-21.
10 宏庆.构建新型装备制造基地,实现辽宁工业产业升级[D].辽宁省哲学社会科学获奖成果汇编(2003-2004年度),2003：319-325.
11 郭金龙,张许颖.结构变动对经济增长方式转变的作用分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998(9)：45-48.
12 吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级和经济增长方式[J].管理世界,1999(1)：113-125.
13 何诚颖.论经济增长过程中的资本积累[J].管理现代化,1996(6)：39-42.
14 朱军.经济增长支撑条件的跨国比较[J].国际贸易问题,1999(12)：28-32.
15 刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002(5)：14-20.
16 刘小翠.辽宁省产业结构变动对经济增长贡献的实证研究[D].东北财经大学,2008(3)：20-29.
17 朱慧明,韩玉启.产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].运筹与管理,2003(4)：68-72.
18 江小涓.我国服务业的增长与结构[M].社会科学文献出版社,2004.
19 朱甲羽.中部地区产业结构变动与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].科技广场,2007(4)：57-60.
20 威廉·配第.政治算术[M].商务印书馆,1928.
21 李江帆,曾国军.中国第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析[J].中国工业经济,2003(3)：34-39.
22 徐铁骏.经济全球化中的产业结构调整与产业政策研究——以福建为案例[D].福建：福建师范大学,2002(4)：14-28.
23 颜廷标.服务业发展比较研究[M].中国科学社会出版社,2005(12)
24 吕明元.1952-2005年我国产业结构的演进及未来调整[J].天津商学院学报,2007(3)：6-11.
25 夏亮.我国产业结构演进及特征分析[J].黑龙江对外经贸,2010(1)：61-63.
26 杨燕红.城市化进程与产业结构的演进关系分析[J].科技情报开发与经济,2006(3)：117-118.
27 Colin Clark.The conditions of Economic Progress[M]. Third eds, London,1940:493-494.
28 李悦.产业经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,1998：75-76.
29 周振华.产业结构演进的一般动因分析[J].财经科学,1990(3)：1-5.
30 贾根良.制度变迁与结构变动[M].南开大学出版社,1998.
31 约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论[M].商务印书馆,1990.
32 周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1995：11-135.
33 廖素清.长株潭产业结构演进机理分析[J].黑龙江对外经贸,2010(1)：90-92.
34 蒋昭侠.产业结构演进机理与实证分析[J].经济管理,2004：41-45.
35 刘刚,沈镭.1951-2004年西藏产业结构的演进特征与机理[J].地理学报,2007(4)：364-376.
36 宗文.区域经济发展战略研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2004(5)：1-6.
37 何熊浪.产业结构调整与区域经济可持续协调发展[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1)：10-15.
38 高晶.我国区域经济发展模式探究——基于区域经济增长理论的发展[D].曲阜师范大学,2008(4)：6-8.
39 谷国锋.区域经济发展的动力系统研究[D].东北师范大学,2005(12)：37-43.
40 魏守华、王缉慈等.产业集群：新型区域经济发展理论[J].经济经纬,2002(2)：18-21.
41 陈本良、陈万灵.区域经济发展差异的制度经济分析[J].中国软科学,2000(11)：70-73.
42 苏廷鳌、付伟.增长极理论与我国区域经济发展[J].内蒙古大学学报(人文社会科学版),1999(1)：87-91.
43 曹新.区域产业结构与经济增长[J].重庆社会科学,2000(1)：48-51.
44 王俊鹏.区域产业结构优化研究——以青岛市为例[D].青岛：山东科技大学,2006(5)：8-20.
45 江世银、李长咏.区域产业结构调整与主导产业选择[J].理论前沿,2003(12)：40-41.
46 刘德学.区域产业结构升级模式比较与趋势[J].经济问题,2002(11)：39-41.
47 Leontief.lnput-output analysis[M].Economics,1966.
48 薛家声.基于投入产出模型的产业结构优化[J].暨南学报,2003(1)：49-53.
49 陈宏、韩轶,戴华.利用投入产出模型研究最优产业结构[J].电子科技大学学报1997(3).
50 唐志鹏、刘卫东、刘红光.投入产出分析框架下的产业结构协调发展测度[J].中国软科学,2010(3)：103-110.
51 汪云林,付允,李丁.基于投入产出的产业关联研究[J].工业技术经济,2008(5).
52 胡汉辉,万兴,范金.基于交叉熵更新技术的产业结构演化分析[J].产业经济评论,2008(3)：1-11.
53 B.Morris.Can differences in industry structure explain divergences in regional economic growth[J].Bank of England Quartely Bulletin,2001,41 (2):195-203.
54 王岳平、葛岳静.我国产业结构的投入产出关联特征分析[J].管理世界,2007(2).
55 郝寿义,安虎森.区域经济学[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999：87-183.
56 刘燕萍.江西省区域经济发展的偏离-份额分析[J].科技广场,2006(3)：19-20.
57 朱玉林、何冰妮,李佳.湖南产业结构演进的实证分析fJ].统计与决策,2008(4)：86-88.
58 晏艳阳、欧卫星.湖南与河南两省产业结构演进对比分析[J].湖湘论坛,2010(2)：96-99.
59 M.Fabio.An evolutionary model of industry growth and structure change[J].Structure Change & Economic Dynamics, 2002,13 (10):387-414.
60 黄溶冰,胡运权.产业结构有序度的测算方法-基于熵的视角,中国管理科学[J].2006(1：122-128.
61 李邃、江可申、郑兵云.新兴产业与中国产业结构优化升级有序度研究,科学学与科学技术管理[J].2010(12):115-121.
62 Krugman P. Geography and Trade[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT press.1991.
63 李悦、李平、孔令丞.产业经济学(第二版)[M].东北财经大学出版社,2008.
64 孙敬水,章迪平.流通产业结构变动影响因素探析[J].现代财经,2010(6)：69-75.
65 李岳云,陈勇,孙林.城乡统筹及其评价方法[J].农业技术经济,2004(1)：24-30.
66 李岳云,陈勇,黄军.南京城乡统筹发展化解“三农”难题的基本思路[J].南京社会科学,2004(S1)：262-267.
[1]A.Young.Gold into Base Metals:Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Roform Period[J]. The Journal of Political Economy,2000,111:1220-1261.
[2]B.Balassa.Export and Economic Growth:Further Evidence[J]. Journal of Development Economics,1978 (5):181-189.
[3]B.Morris.Can differences in industry structure explain divergences in regional economic growth[J].Bank of England Quartely Bulletin,2001,41 (2):195-203.
[4]Brander, A.James and J.Barbara.'Tariff Protection and imperfect Competition', in H Kierzkowski (eds), Monopolistic competition andinternational trade[M].Oxford: Oxford University Press,1984:13-29.
[5]Brander, A.James and Spencer, J.Barbara.Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry[J].Journal of International Economics,1985,18:83-100.
[6]Browning and Singelman. The transformation of the US labor force[J]. Politics and Society,1978:481-509.
[7]Cheng, K.Lonard. Assisting Domestic Industries under International Oligopoly:The Relevance of the Nature of Competition to Optimal policies[J].American Econimic Review,1988,78:746-58.
[8]Colin Clark.The conditions of Economic Progress[M].Third eds, London,1940: 493-494.
[9]De mello.Foreign Direct Investment-led Growth:Evidence from Timeseries and panel Data[J].Oxford Economic Papers,1999,51:133-151.
[10]E.C.Wang.Patterns and Sources of Structural Change in Taiwan:An Analysis of Input-Output Coefficients[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,1997,8 (3):369-392.
[11]Eaton, Jonathan, Grossman and M.Gene.Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy under Oligopoly [J].Quarterly journal of Economics,1986,51:383-406.
[12]F.Stille.Linkages between Manufacturing and Services in Germany[Z].Berlin:The Japanese-German Center,2003:80-97.
[13]G.Feder.On Exports and Economic Growth[J].Journal of Development Economics, 1982 (12):59-73.
[14]G.M.Grossman, E.Helpman.Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy[M].Cambridge (USA):The MIT Press,1991:16-25.
[15]I.Saltz.The negative correlation between foreign direct investment and economic growth in the third world:theory and evidence[J].Rivista International science Economic commercial,1992,39:617-33.
[16]J.Cornwall, W.Cornwall, Growth Theory and Economic Structure[J].Economic,1994, 61:237-251.
[17]J.Fagerberg.Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth:A comparative [J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2000 (11):393-411.
[18]J.M.Berk, J.A.Bikker.International interdependence of business cycles in the manufacturing industry:The use of leading indicators for forecasting and analysis [J] Journal of Forecasting,1995,14:1-23.
[19]J.Sachs, W.T.Woo.Structural factors in tne economic reforms of China, Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union[J].Economic Policy,1994,18 (1):102-145.
[20]Jong H.Park and Pelelope B.Prime.'Export Performance and Growth in China:a Cross-provincial Analysis'[J]. Applied Economics,1997,29:1353-1363.
[21]Jordan Shan and Fiona Sun, On the Export led Growth Hypothesis:the Econometric Evidence from China[J].Applied Economics,1998,30:1055-1065.
[22]K.Uno.Measurement of Services in an Input-Output Framework[M].Amsterdam: Elsevier Publishers B.V.,1989:23-66.
[23]Keith Pavitt.Sectoral patterns of technical change:Towards taxonomy and a theory[J].Research Policy,1984,13 (6):343-373.
[24]Klepper, Steven and Graddy, Elizabeth.The Evolution of New Industries and the Determinants of Market Structure[J]. Journal of Economics,1990,21 (1):27-44.
[25]Kojima, Kiyoshi.The'flying geese'model of Asian economic development:origin, Theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2000 (11):375-401.
[26]Lall, Sanjaya.Industry Policy:the role of government in promoting industrial and technological development[J].UNCTAD, Geneva.UNCTAD Review,1994:6-17.
[27]M.Blomtrom, R.E.LiPsey, and M.Zejanm. What Explains the Growth of Dveloping Countries.In:Baumol, W.J, Nelson, R.R, Wolff, E.N (eds.), Convergence of productivity:Cross national Studies and Historical Evidence[M].New York:Oxford University press,1994:90-150.
[28]M.Fabio.An evolutionary model of industry growth and structure change [J]. Structure Change & Economic Dynamics,2002,13 (10):387-414.
[29]Muhammed N islam.Export Expansion and Economic Growth:Testing for Cointegration and Cousality[J].Applied Economics,1998,30:415-425.
[30]P.G.Tingvall.The Dynamics of European Industrial Structure[J].Review of World Economics,2004,140 (4):665-687.
[31]P.J.Lloyd.The Role of Foreign Investment in the Success of Asian Industrialization[J] Journal of Asian Economics,1996 (7):407-433.
[32]P.Romer.Two Strategies for Economic Dvelopment:Using ideas and Producing ideas In Proceedings of the Annual world Bank Conference on Development[C].Washington D.C,1993:13-26.
[33]R.E.Lucas.Making a miracle[J].Econometrica,1993,61:251-272.
[34]R.E.Lucas.On the mechanisms of economic development[J]Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22:3-42.
[35]R.Perotti.Political Equilibrium, income distribution and growth[J].The review of economic studies,1993,60:125-160.
[36]Reis, Ana Balcao.On the Welfare Effects of Foreign Investment[J] Journal of International Economics,2001,54 (2):411-428.
[37]Romer, David.Advanced Macroeconomics[J].Boston:McGraw-Hill,2000(9):26-33.
[38]S Jordan, GTian, and F.sun.Causality Between FDI and Economic Growth In Yanrui Wu eds.1999[J].Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growthin China,1999 (3): 140-156.
[39]S.Robinson.Sources of Growth in Less-Developed Countries:A Cross-Section Study[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1971,85:391-408.
[40]Syrquin, Chenery H B.Three Decades of Industrial Structure[J].Review of World Economics,2004,140 (4):665-687.
[41]Teame Ghirmay, Richard Grabowski and Subhash C Sharma.'Export, Investment, Efficiency and Economic Growth in LDC:an Empirical Investigation'[J].Applied Economics,2001,33:689-700.
[42]V.Balasubramanyan, M.salisu, and D. Sapsford.Foreign direct inverstment and growth in Ep and IS countries[J].Economic Journal,1996,106:92-105.
[43]W. W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth:A Non-Communist Manifesto[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1960:112-130.
[44]W.Arthur, Brian and wolfgang Polak.The Evolution of Technology within a Simple Computer Model[D].Santa Fe Institute Working Paper,2004:135-160.
[45]W.Artllul, Brian.Competing Technologies, Inereasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events[J].Economic Journal,1989:116-131.
[46]W.Easterly.How much do distortions affect growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1993,32:187-212.
[47]Walz, Uwe.Innovation, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth[J].Economica 1997, 64:63-79.
[48]H·钱纳里,S·鲁滨逊,M·赛尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海：三联书店,1989：44-45.
[49]陈柏福.我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性研究[D].湖南：湖南大学,2009(4)：15-30.
[50]陈国阶.中国资源利用与产业结构的调整[J].中国人口、资源与环境,1994,4(1)：26-31.
[51]陈宏、韩轶,戴华.利用投入产出模型研究最优产业结构[J].电子科技大学学报,1997(3)：32-35.
[52]陈荣达,楼远.基于灰色关联度的温州产业结构合理化评估[J].财经论丛,2006(2)：35-37.
[53]陈勇,唐朱昌.中国工业的技术选择与技术进步：1985～2003[J].经济研究,2006(9)：50-61.
[54]邓伟根.产业经济学研究[M].经济管理出版社,2001：60-80.
[55]丁仁船,杨军昌.技术进步对中国劳动力就业的影响[J].统计与决策,2002(12)：21-37.
[56]董云鹏.经济全球化下的中国产业结构优化分析[J].河北学刊,2003(5)：60-63.
[57]樊胜根,张晓波,Sherman等.中国经济增长和结构调整[J].经济学(季刊),2002(1)：181-198.
[58]范海英.“泛珠三角”9省区产业结构调整研究[D].广东：暨南大学,2005(7).
[59]方甲.产业结构问题研究[M].中国人民大学出版社,1997：56-78.
[60]符太增.中国西部大开发的财税政策研究[D].东北：东北财经大学,2006(1).
[61]干春晖,郑若谷.改革开放以来产业结构演进与生产率增长研究——对中国1978～2007年“结构红利假说”的检验[J].中国工业经济,2009(2)：55-64.
[62]高晶.我国区域经济发展模式探究——基于区域经济增长理论的发展[D].曲阜师范大学,2008(4)：6-8.
[63]龚仰军,应勤俭.产业结构与产业政策[M].立信会计出版社,1999：45-50.
[64]龚仰军.产业结构研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2002：23-30.
[65]郭金龙,张许颖.结构变动对经济增长方式转变的作用分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998(9)：45-48.
[66]郭克莎,王延中.中国产业结构变动趋势及政策研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,1999：50-62.
[67]郭克莎.第三产业的结构优化与高效发展[J].财贸经济,2000(10)：51-56.
[68]郭克莎.三次产业增长因素及其变动特点分析[J].经济研究,1992(2)：51-61.
[69]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路[J].经济研究,1999(9)：15-21.
[70]郭艳,朱光伟.基于SSM模型的南京是产业结构变迁与经济增长的实证研究[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(17)：7485-7487.
[71]谷国锋.区域经济发展的动力系统研究[D].东北师范大学,2005(12)：37-43.
[72]郝寿义,安虎森.区域经济学[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999：59-78.
[73]蒋昭侠.产业结构问题研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2005：10-11.
[74]何大安.投资流向与结构调整、结构升级的关联分析[J].经济研究,2001(11)：45-51.
[75]何熊浪.产业结构调整与区域经济可持续协调发展[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1)：10-15.
[76]胡炎,郑江绥.区域主导产业选择理论：基于演化的视角[J].前沿,2009(6)：61-63.
[77]黄溶冰,胡运权.产业结构有序度的测算方法-基于熵的视角[J].中国管理科学,2006(1)：122-128.
[78]黄少军.产业结构变动及影响因素的数量研究：城市样本分析[J].华南师范大学学报(社会科学版),1996(6)：30-42.
[79]慧树鹏.甘肃省产业结构变动与经济增长关系的实证研究[D].西安：西北师范大学,2007(6)：20-45.
[80]贾根良.制度变迁与结构变动[M].南开大学出版社,1998：23-30.
[81]贾迎宾.地区产业结构的高级化程度分类研究[J].市场周刊管理探索,2005：24-25.
[82]江小涓.我国服务业的增长与结构[M].社会科学文献出版社,2004：56-70.
[83]江小娟.产业结构优化升级：新阶段和新任务[J].财贸经济,2005(4)：3-9.
[84]江小娟.中国工业中长期发展预测及结构变动趋势[J].管理世界,1995(3)：34-43.
[85]李宾,曾志雄.中国全要素生产率变动的再测算：1978～2007年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(3)：3-15.
[86]李江帆,曾国军.中国第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析[J].中国工业经济,2003(3)：34-39.
[87]李京文.中国产业结构的变化与发展趋势[J].当代财经,1998(5)：12-21.
[88]李秋然.广东省90年代产业结构演变的实证研究[D].广东：华南理工大学,2001：15-26.
[89]李邃,江可申,郑兵云.新兴产业与中国产业结构优化升级有序度研究,科学学与科学技术管理[J].2010(12)：115-121.
[90]李文.产业结构税收政策：理论与实证研究[D].山东：山东大学,2005(4)：20-36.
[91]李悦、李平、孔令丞.产业经济学(第二版)[M].东北财经大学出版社,2008：32-40.
[92]刘刚,沈镭.1951-2004年西藏产业结构的演进特征与机理[J].地理学报,2007(4)：364-376.
[93]刘海英,季莉娅.内蒙古七大主要城市竞争力分析[J].内蒙古农业科技,2005(6)：5-7.
[94]刘俊娟,李炳军.河南省产业结构有序度的测度与分析[J].工业技术经济,2006(8)：45-48.
[95]刘思峰.我国产业结构有序度研究[J].经济动态,2004(5)：53-56.
[96]刘随华.基于SSM法的铜川市产业结构特征分析[D].西安：西北农林科技大学,2007(10).
[97]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002(5)：14-20.
[98]刘伟,张辉.中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步[J].经济研究,2008(11)：4-15.
[99]刘燕萍.江西省区域经济发展的偏离-份额分析[J].科技广场,2006(3)：19-20.
[100]刘志彪,安同良,王国生.现代产业经济分析[M].南京：南京大学出版社,2001：36-45.
[101]罗光强,曾福生,曾伟.产业结构变迁对湖南经济增长波动的影响[C].湖南省经济学会年会暨科学发展观与湖南经济协调发展研讨会论文集,2003：141-154.
[102]罗仁会.产业结构合理性分析与调整研究[D].四川：西南交通大学,2004(5)：15-32.
[103]吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级和经济增长方式[J].管理世界,1999(1)：113-125.
[104]吕铁.中国工业结构的调整与产业升级[J].工业经济,2007(5)：1-5.
[105]马建堂.周期波动与结构变动——经济舟曲影响产业结构的机制初探[J].经济研究,1988(6)：65-73.
[106]马晓国.江苏产业结构调整的计量分析与实证研究[D].江苏：南京航空航天大学,2006(9)：19-23.
[107]马歇尔.经济学原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997：21-45.
[108]蒲艳萍,吴永球.经济增长、产业结构与劳动力转移[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(9)：19-29.
[109]祁杭峰.基于主导产业选择的无锡产业结构调整研究[D].上海：复旦大学,2010(3)：30-39.
[110]沈利生,吴振宇.出口对中国GDP增长的贡献——基于投入产出表的实证分析[J].经济研究,2003(11)：33-41.
[111]苏东水.产业经济学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2000：280-293.
[112]覃予,刘颖,徐志宏.浅议新加坡经济波动与产业结构的联系[J].市场论坛,2004(1)：10-12.
[113]谭崇台.发展经济学[M].太原：山西经济出版社,2001：252-270.
[114]唐志鹏、刘卫东、刘红光.投入产出分析框架下的产业结构协调发展测度[J].中国软科学,2010(3)：103-110.
[115]佟瑞,朱顺泉.基于因子分析法的我国各省市社会发展水平评价研究[J].生产力研究,2005(9)：19-20.
[116]汪传旭,刘大镕.产业结构合理化的定量分析模型[J].技术经济,2002(4)：51-53.
[117]汪云林,付允,李丁.基于投入产出的产业关联研究[J].工业技术经济,2008(5).
[118]王传士.工业品价格、产业序列与投资关系分析[J].皖西学院学报,2002(10)：17-20.
[119]王俊鹏.区域产业结构优化研究——以青岛市为例[D].青岛：山东科技大学,2006(5)：8-20.
[120]王明明.信息产业对经济全球化与经济周期波动的影响[J].中国软科学,2000(7)：20-23.
[121]王小鲁,夏小林.优化城市规模推动经济增长[J].经济研究,1999(9)：22-29.
[122]王晓璐.三十年来我国产业结构的演进和趋势[J].北方经贸,2010(2)：3-4.
[123]王岳平,葛岳静.我国产业结构的投入产出关联特征分析[J].管理世界,2007(2)
[124]魏守华、王缉慈等.产业集群：新型区域经济发展理论[J].经济经纬,2002(2)：18-21.
[125]温杰.中国产业结构升级的就业效应[D].湖北：华中科技大学,2005：12-23.
[126]夏炎,陈锡康,陈翠红.基于投入产出技术的能源效率新指标——生产能耗综合指数[J].管理评论,2010(2)：17-22.
[127]谢昌浩.云南省城乡居民消费结构的灰色关联度[J].统计与决策,2004(6)：80-81.
[128]谢九.2009,中国服务业正等待崛起[J].三联生活周刊,2008(48)：34-37.
[129]徐现祥,李郇.中国城市经济增长的趋同分析[J].经济研究,2004(4)：56-57.
[130]薛家声.基于投入产出模型的产业结构优化[J].暨南学报,2003(1)：49-53.
[131]薛敬孝,白雪洁.当代日本产业结构研究[M].天津：天津人民出版社,2002：1-10.
[132]晏艳阳,欧卫星.湖南与河南两省产业结构演进对比分析[J].湖湘论坛,2010(2)：96-99.
[133]杨小凯.发展经济学——超边际分析与边际分析[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003：50-60.
[134]杨永恒,胡鞍钢,张宁.基于主成份分析法的人类发展指数替代指数[J].经济研究,2005(7)：7-17.
[135]杨治.产业经济学导论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1985：60-85.
[136]于凤艳.中国城市经济增长过程中的产业结构变动研究[D].辽宁：辽宁大学,2008(5)：7-19.
[137]于同申.发展经济学——新世纪经济发展的理论与政策[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2000(10)：35-48.
[138]原毅军.经济增长周期与产业结构变动研究[J].中国工业经济研究,1991(6)：34-41.
[139]张海燕.我国宏观经济变量周期性波动的动态模型与计量分析[D].长春：吉林大学,2006：118-119.
[140]张军.增长、资本形成与技术选择：解释中国经济增长下降的长期因素[J].经济学季刊,2002,1(2)：301-338.
[141]张军.资本形成、工业化与经济增长：中国的转轨特征[J].经济研究,2002(6)：3-15.
[142]张丽峰.京津冀产业结构对经济增长影响差异性分析——基于面板数据模型的分析[J].工业技术经济,2008(2)：100-103.
[143]张楠,袁雪梅.江苏省产业结构有序度测算与分析[J].第16届全国灰色系统学术回忆论文集,2008：110-117.
[144]张新华.经济波动中的产业结构变化[J].管理世界,1988(2)：27-31.
[145]张亚斌,刘靓君.基于主成份分析的生产性服务业发展水平评价[J].求索,2008(12)：12-14.
[146]张蕴岭.经济发展与产业结构[M].北京：社会科技文献出版社,1991：189-215.
[147]赵听.产业集聚与城市化关系的实证分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2007(5)：94-97.
[148]钟勇.产业结构演进机理研究[D].北京：中国人民大学,2004(4)：20-23.
[149]周英章,蒋振生.我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究[J].浙江大学学报,2002(5)：146-152.
[150]周振华.产业结构演进的一般动因分析[J].财经科学,1990(3)：1-5.
[151]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1995：11-135.
[152]朱军.经济增长支撑条件的跨国比较[J].国际贸易问题,1999(12)：28-32.
[153]朱明春.产业结构·机制·政策[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1990：71-72.
[154]朱永升,王卫华,韩伯棠.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联度分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2002(12)：782-785.
[155]朱玉林,何冰妮,李佳.湖南产业结构演进的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2008(4)：86-88.
[156]宗文.区域经济发展战略研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2004(5)：1-6.
2 W. W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth:A Non-Communist Manifesto [M].Cambridge University Press,1960.
2 钱纳里等.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989.
4 Singelman and Browning. The transformation of the US labor force[J].Politics and Society,1978:481-509.
5 杨治.论产业政策[J].宏观经济研究,1988(8)：49-55.
6 郭克莎.第三产业的结构优化与高效发展[J].财贸经济,2000(10)：51-56.
7 龚仰军.产业结构研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2002.
8 潘淑清.产业结构变动与经济增长关系的统计研究[D].江西：江西财经大学,2002(4)：3-7.
9 李京文.中国产业结构的变化与发展趋势[J].当代财经,1998(5)：12-21.
10 宏庆.构建新型装备制造基地,实现辽宁工业产业升级[D].辽宁省哲学社会科学获奖成果汇编(2003-2004年度),2003：319-325.
11 郭金龙,张许颖.结构变动对经济增长方式转变的作用分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998(9)：45-48.
12 吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级和经济增长方式[J].管理世界,1999(1)：113-125.
13 何诚颖.论经济增长过程中的资本积累[J].管理现代化,1996(6)：39-42.
14 朱军.经济增长支撑条件的跨国比较[J].国际贸易问题,1999(12)：28-32.
15 刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002(5)：14-20.
16 刘小翠.辽宁省产业结构变动对经济增长贡献的实证研究[D].东北财经大学,2008(3)：20-29.
17 朱慧明,韩玉启.产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].运筹与管理,2003(4)：68-72.
18 江小涓.我国服务业的增长与结构[M].社会科学文献出版社,2004.
19 朱甲羽.中部地区产业结构变动与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].科技广场,2007(4)：57-60.
20 威廉·配第.政治算术[M].商务印书馆,1928.
21 李江帆,曾国军.中国第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析[J].中国工业经济,2003(3)：34-39.
22 徐铁骏.经济全球化中的产业结构调整与产业政策研究——以福建为案例[D].福建：福建师范大学,2002(4)：14-28.
23 颜廷标.服务业发展比较研究[M].中国科学社会出版社,2005(12)
24 吕明元.1952-2005年我国产业结构的演进及未来调整[J].天津商学院学报,2007(3)：6-11.
25 夏亮.我国产业结构演进及特征分析[J].黑龙江对外经贸,2010(1)：61-63.
26 杨燕红.城市化进程与产业结构的演进关系分析[J].科技情报开发与经济,2006(3)：117-118.
27 Colin Clark.The conditions of Economic Progress[M]. Third eds, London,1940:493-494.
28 李悦.产业经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,1998：75-76.
29 周振华.产业结构演进的一般动因分析[J].财经科学,1990(3)：1-5.
30 贾根良.制度变迁与结构变动[M].南开大学出版社,1998.
31 约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论[M].商务印书馆,1990.
32 周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1995：11-135.
33 廖素清.长株潭产业结构演进机理分析[J].黑龙江对外经贸,2010(1)：90-92.
34 蒋昭侠.产业结构演进机理与实证分析[J].经济管理,2004：41-45.
35 刘刚,沈镭.1951-2004年西藏产业结构的演进特征与机理[J].地理学报,2007(4)：364-376.
36 宗文.区域经济发展战略研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2004(5)：1-6.
37 何熊浪.产业结构调整与区域经济可持续协调发展[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1)：10-15.
38 高晶.我国区域经济发展模式探究——基于区域经济增长理论的发展[D].曲阜师范大学,2008(4)：6-8.
39 谷国锋.区域经济发展的动力系统研究[D].东北师范大学,2005(12)：37-43.
40 魏守华、王缉慈等.产业集群：新型区域经济发展理论[J].经济经纬,2002(2)：18-21.
41 陈本良、陈万灵.区域经济发展差异的制度经济分析[J].中国软科学,2000(11)：70-73.
42 苏廷鳌、付伟.增长极理论与我国区域经济发展[J].内蒙古大学学报(人文社会科学版),1999(1)：87-91.
43 曹新.区域产业结构与经济增长[J].重庆社会科学,2000(1)：48-51.
44 王俊鹏.区域产业结构优化研究——以青岛市为例[D].青岛：山东科技大学,2006(5)：8-20.
45 江世银、李长咏.区域产业结构调整与主导产业选择[J].理论前沿,2003(12)：40-41.
46 刘德学.区域产业结构升级模式比较与趋势[J].经济问题,2002(11)：39-41.
47 Leontief.lnput-output analysis[M].Economics,1966.
48 薛家声.基于投入产出模型的产业结构优化[J].暨南学报,2003(1)：49-53.
49 陈宏、韩轶,戴华.利用投入产出模型研究最优产业结构[J].电子科技大学学报1997(3).
50 唐志鹏、刘卫东、刘红光.投入产出分析框架下的产业结构协调发展测度[J].中国软科学,2010(3)：103-110.
51 汪云林,付允,李丁.基于投入产出的产业关联研究[J].工业技术经济,2008(5).
52 胡汉辉,万兴,范金.基于交叉熵更新技术的产业结构演化分析[J].产业经济评论,2008(3)：1-11.
53 B.Morris.Can differences in industry structure explain divergences in regional economic growth[J].Bank of England Quartely Bulletin,2001,41 (2):195-203.
54 王岳平、葛岳静.我国产业结构的投入产出关联特征分析[J].管理世界,2007(2).
55 郝寿义,安虎森.区域经济学[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999：87-183.
56 刘燕萍.江西省区域经济发展的偏离-份额分析[J].科技广场,2006(3)：19-20.
57 朱玉林、何冰妮,李佳.湖南产业结构演进的实证分析fJ].统计与决策,2008(4)：86-88.
58 晏艳阳、欧卫星.湖南与河南两省产业结构演进对比分析[J].湖湘论坛,2010(2)：96-99.
59 M.Fabio.An evolutionary model of industry growth and structure change[J].Structure Change & Economic Dynamics, 2002,13 (10):387-414.
60 黄溶冰,胡运权.产业结构有序度的测算方法-基于熵的视角,中国管理科学[J].2006(1：122-128.
61 李邃、江可申、郑兵云.新兴产业与中国产业结构优化升级有序度研究,科学学与科学技术管理[J].2010(12):115-121.
62 Krugman P. Geography and Trade[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT press.1991.
63 李悦、李平、孔令丞.产业经济学(第二版)[M].东北财经大学出版社,2008.
64 孙敬水,章迪平.流通产业结构变动影响因素探析[J].现代财经,2010(6)：69-75.
65 李岳云,陈勇,孙林.城乡统筹及其评价方法[J].农业技术经济,2004(1)：24-30.
66 李岳云,陈勇,黄军.南京城乡统筹发展化解“三农”难题的基本思路[J].南京社会科学,2004(S1)：262-267.
[1]A.Young.Gold into Base Metals:Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Roform Period[J]. The Journal of Political Economy,2000,111:1220-1261.
[2]B.Balassa.Export and Economic Growth:Further Evidence[J]. Journal of Development Economics,1978 (5):181-189.
[3]B.Morris.Can differences in industry structure explain divergences in regional economic growth[J].Bank of England Quartely Bulletin,2001,41 (2):195-203.
[4]Brander, A.James and J.Barbara.'Tariff Protection and imperfect Competition', in H Kierzkowski (eds), Monopolistic competition andinternational trade[M].Oxford: Oxford University Press,1984:13-29.
[5]Brander, A.James and Spencer, J.Barbara.Export Subsidies and International Market Share Rivalry[J].Journal of International Economics,1985,18:83-100.
[6]Browning and Singelman. The transformation of the US labor force[J]. Politics and Society,1978:481-509.
[7]Cheng, K.Lonard. Assisting Domestic Industries under International Oligopoly:The Relevance of the Nature of Competition to Optimal policies[J].American Econimic Review,1988,78:746-58.
[8]Colin Clark.The conditions of Economic Progress[M].Third eds, London,1940: 493-494.
[9]De mello.Foreign Direct Investment-led Growth:Evidence from Timeseries and panel Data[J].Oxford Economic Papers,1999,51:133-151.
[10]E.C.Wang.Patterns and Sources of Structural Change in Taiwan:An Analysis of Input-Output Coefficients[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,1997,8 (3):369-392.
[11]Eaton, Jonathan, Grossman and M.Gene.Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy under Oligopoly [J].Quarterly journal of Economics,1986,51:383-406.
[12]F.Stille.Linkages between Manufacturing and Services in Germany[Z].Berlin:The Japanese-German Center,2003:80-97.
[13]G.Feder.On Exports and Economic Growth[J].Journal of Development Economics, 1982 (12):59-73.
[14]G.M.Grossman, E.Helpman.Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy[M].Cambridge (USA):The MIT Press,1991:16-25.
[15]I.Saltz.The negative correlation between foreign direct investment and economic growth in the third world:theory and evidence[J].Rivista International science Economic commercial,1992,39:617-33.
[16]J.Cornwall, W.Cornwall, Growth Theory and Economic Structure[J].Economic,1994, 61:237-251.
[17]J.Fagerberg.Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth:A comparative [J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2000 (11):393-411.
[18]J.M.Berk, J.A.Bikker.International interdependence of business cycles in the manufacturing industry:The use of leading indicators for forecasting and analysis [J] Journal of Forecasting,1995,14:1-23.
[19]J.Sachs, W.T.Woo.Structural factors in tne economic reforms of China, Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union[J].Economic Policy,1994,18 (1):102-145.
[20]Jong H.Park and Pelelope B.Prime.'Export Performance and Growth in China:a Cross-provincial Analysis'[J]. Applied Economics,1997,29:1353-1363.
[21]Jordan Shan and Fiona Sun, On the Export led Growth Hypothesis:the Econometric Evidence from China[J].Applied Economics,1998,30:1055-1065.
[22]K.Uno.Measurement of Services in an Input-Output Framework[M].Amsterdam: Elsevier Publishers B.V.,1989:23-66.
[23]Keith Pavitt.Sectoral patterns of technical change:Towards taxonomy and a theory[J].Research Policy,1984,13 (6):343-373.
[24]Klepper, Steven and Graddy, Elizabeth.The Evolution of New Industries and the Determinants of Market Structure[J]. Journal of Economics,1990,21 (1):27-44.
[25]Kojima, Kiyoshi.The'flying geese'model of Asian economic development:origin, Theoretical extensions, and regional policy implications[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2000 (11):375-401.
[26]Lall, Sanjaya.Industry Policy:the role of government in promoting industrial and technological development[J].UNCTAD, Geneva.UNCTAD Review,1994:6-17.
[27]M.Blomtrom, R.E.LiPsey, and M.Zejanm. What Explains the Growth of Dveloping Countries.In:Baumol, W.J, Nelson, R.R, Wolff, E.N (eds.), Convergence of productivity:Cross national Studies and Historical Evidence[M].New York:Oxford University press,1994:90-150.
[28]M.Fabio.An evolutionary model of industry growth and structure change [J]. Structure Change & Economic Dynamics,2002,13 (10):387-414.
[29]Muhammed N islam.Export Expansion and Economic Growth:Testing for Cointegration and Cousality[J].Applied Economics,1998,30:415-425.
[30]P.G.Tingvall.The Dynamics of European Industrial Structure[J].Review of World Economics,2004,140 (4):665-687.
[31]P.J.Lloyd.The Role of Foreign Investment in the Success of Asian Industrialization[J] Journal of Asian Economics,1996 (7):407-433.
[32]P.Romer.Two Strategies for Economic Dvelopment:Using ideas and Producing ideas In Proceedings of the Annual world Bank Conference on Development[C].Washington D.C,1993:13-26.
[33]R.E.Lucas.Making a miracle[J].Econometrica,1993,61:251-272.
[34]R.E.Lucas.On the mechanisms of economic development[J]Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,22:3-42.
[35]R.Perotti.Political Equilibrium, income distribution and growth[J].The review of economic studies,1993,60:125-160.
[36]Reis, Ana Balcao.On the Welfare Effects of Foreign Investment[J] Journal of International Economics,2001,54 (2):411-428.
[37]Romer, David.Advanced Macroeconomics[J].Boston:McGraw-Hill,2000(9):26-33.
[38]S Jordan, GTian, and F.sun.Causality Between FDI and Economic Growth In Yanrui Wu eds.1999[J].Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growthin China,1999 (3): 140-156.
[39]S.Robinson.Sources of Growth in Less-Developed Countries:A Cross-Section Study[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1971,85:391-408.
[40]Syrquin, Chenery H B.Three Decades of Industrial Structure[J].Review of World Economics,2004,140 (4):665-687.
[41]Teame Ghirmay, Richard Grabowski and Subhash C Sharma.'Export, Investment, Efficiency and Economic Growth in LDC:an Empirical Investigation'[J].Applied Economics,2001,33:689-700.
[42]V.Balasubramanyan, M.salisu, and D. Sapsford.Foreign direct inverstment and growth in Ep and IS countries[J].Economic Journal,1996,106:92-105.
[43]W. W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth:A Non-Communist Manifesto[M]. Cambridge University Press, 1960:112-130.
[44]W.Arthur, Brian and wolfgang Polak.The Evolution of Technology within a Simple Computer Model[D].Santa Fe Institute Working Paper,2004:135-160.
[45]W.Artllul, Brian.Competing Technologies, Inereasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events[J].Economic Journal,1989:116-131.
[46]W.Easterly.How much do distortions affect growth[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1993,32:187-212.
[47]Walz, Uwe.Innovation, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth[J].Economica 1997, 64:63-79.
[48]H·钱纳里,S·鲁滨逊,M·赛尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海：三联书店,1989：44-45.
[49]陈柏福.我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性研究[D].湖南：湖南大学,2009(4)：15-30.
[50]陈国阶.中国资源利用与产业结构的调整[J].中国人口、资源与环境,1994,4(1)：26-31.
[51]陈宏、韩轶,戴华.利用投入产出模型研究最优产业结构[J].电子科技大学学报,1997(3)：32-35.
[52]陈荣达,楼远.基于灰色关联度的温州产业结构合理化评估[J].财经论丛,2006(2)：35-37.
[53]陈勇,唐朱昌.中国工业的技术选择与技术进步：1985～2003[J].经济研究,2006(9)：50-61.
[54]邓伟根.产业经济学研究[M].经济管理出版社,2001：60-80.
[55]丁仁船,杨军昌.技术进步对中国劳动力就业的影响[J].统计与决策,2002(12)：21-37.
[56]董云鹏.经济全球化下的中国产业结构优化分析[J].河北学刊,2003(5)：60-63.
[57]樊胜根,张晓波,Sherman等.中国经济增长和结构调整[J].经济学(季刊),2002(1)：181-198.
[58]范海英.“泛珠三角”9省区产业结构调整研究[D].广东：暨南大学,2005(7).
[59]方甲.产业结构问题研究[M].中国人民大学出版社,1997：56-78.
[60]符太增.中国西部大开发的财税政策研究[D].东北：东北财经大学,2006(1).
[61]干春晖,郑若谷.改革开放以来产业结构演进与生产率增长研究——对中国1978～2007年“结构红利假说”的检验[J].中国工业经济,2009(2)：55-64.
[62]高晶.我国区域经济发展模式探究——基于区域经济增长理论的发展[D].曲阜师范大学,2008(4)：6-8.
[63]龚仰军,应勤俭.产业结构与产业政策[M].立信会计出版社,1999：45-50.
[64]龚仰军.产业结构研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2002：23-30.
[65]郭金龙,张许颖.结构变动对经济增长方式转变的作用分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998(9)：45-48.
[66]郭克莎,王延中.中国产业结构变动趋势及政策研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,1999：50-62.
[67]郭克莎.第三产业的结构优化与高效发展[J].财贸经济,2000(10)：51-56.
[68]郭克莎.三次产业增长因素及其变动特点分析[J].经济研究,1992(2)：51-61.
[69]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路[J].经济研究,1999(9)：15-21.
[70]郭艳,朱光伟.基于SSM模型的南京是产业结构变迁与经济增长的实证研究[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(17)：7485-7487.
[71]谷国锋.区域经济发展的动力系统研究[D].东北师范大学,2005(12)：37-43.
[72]郝寿义,安虎森.区域经济学[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999：59-78.
[73]蒋昭侠.产业结构问题研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2005：10-11.
[74]何大安.投资流向与结构调整、结构升级的关联分析[J].经济研究,2001(11)：45-51.
[75]何熊浪.产业结构调整与区域经济可持续协调发展[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学版),2004(1)：10-15.
[76]胡炎,郑江绥.区域主导产业选择理论：基于演化的视角[J].前沿,2009(6)：61-63.
[77]黄溶冰,胡运权.产业结构有序度的测算方法-基于熵的视角[J].中国管理科学,2006(1)：122-128.
[78]黄少军.产业结构变动及影响因素的数量研究：城市样本分析[J].华南师范大学学报(社会科学版),1996(6)：30-42.
[79]慧树鹏.甘肃省产业结构变动与经济增长关系的实证研究[D].西安：西北师范大学,2007(6)：20-45.
[80]贾根良.制度变迁与结构变动[M].南开大学出版社,1998：23-30.
[81]贾迎宾.地区产业结构的高级化程度分类研究[J].市场周刊管理探索,2005：24-25.
[82]江小涓.我国服务业的增长与结构[M].社会科学文献出版社,2004：56-70.
[83]江小娟.产业结构优化升级：新阶段和新任务[J].财贸经济,2005(4)：3-9.
[84]江小娟.中国工业中长期发展预测及结构变动趋势[J].管理世界,1995(3)：34-43.
[85]李宾,曾志雄.中国全要素生产率变动的再测算：1978～2007年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(3)：3-15.
[86]李江帆,曾国军.中国第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析[J].中国工业经济,2003(3)：34-39.
[87]李京文.中国产业结构的变化与发展趋势[J].当代财经,1998(5)：12-21.
[88]李秋然.广东省90年代产业结构演变的实证研究[D].广东：华南理工大学,2001：15-26.
[89]李邃,江可申,郑兵云.新兴产业与中国产业结构优化升级有序度研究,科学学与科学技术管理[J].2010(12)：115-121.
[90]李文.产业结构税收政策：理论与实证研究[D].山东：山东大学,2005(4)：20-36.
[91]李悦、李平、孔令丞.产业经济学(第二版)[M].东北财经大学出版社,2008：32-40.
[92]刘刚,沈镭.1951-2004年西藏产业结构的演进特征与机理[J].地理学报,2007(4)：364-376.
[93]刘海英,季莉娅.内蒙古七大主要城市竞争力分析[J].内蒙古农业科技,2005(6)：5-7.
[94]刘俊娟,李炳军.河南省产业结构有序度的测度与分析[J].工业技术经济,2006(8)：45-48.
[95]刘思峰.我国产业结构有序度研究[J].经济动态,2004(5)：53-56.
[96]刘随华.基于SSM法的铜川市产业结构特征分析[D].西安：西北农林科技大学,2007(10).
[97]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002(5)：14-20.
[98]刘伟,张辉.中国经济增长中的产业结构变迁和技术进步[J].经济研究,2008(11)：4-15.
[99]刘燕萍.江西省区域经济发展的偏离-份额分析[J].科技广场,2006(3)：19-20.
[100]刘志彪,安同良,王国生.现代产业经济分析[M].南京：南京大学出版社,2001：36-45.
[101]罗光强,曾福生,曾伟.产业结构变迁对湖南经济增长波动的影响[C].湖南省经济学会年会暨科学发展观与湖南经济协调发展研讨会论文集,2003：141-154.
[102]罗仁会.产业结构合理性分析与调整研究[D].四川：西南交通大学,2004(5)：15-32.
[103]吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级和经济增长方式[J].管理世界,1999(1)：113-125.
[104]吕铁.中国工业结构的调整与产业升级[J].工业经济,2007(5)：1-5.
[105]马建堂.周期波动与结构变动——经济舟曲影响产业结构的机制初探[J].经济研究,1988(6)：65-73.
[106]马晓国.江苏产业结构调整的计量分析与实证研究[D].江苏：南京航空航天大学,2006(9)：19-23.
[107]马歇尔.经济学原理[M].北京：商务印书馆,1997：21-45.
[108]蒲艳萍,吴永球.经济增长、产业结构与劳动力转移[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(9)：19-29.
[109]祁杭峰.基于主导产业选择的无锡产业结构调整研究[D].上海：复旦大学,2010(3)：30-39.
[110]沈利生,吴振宇.出口对中国GDP增长的贡献——基于投入产出表的实证分析[J].经济研究,2003(11)：33-41.
[111]苏东水.产业经济学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2000：280-293.
[112]覃予,刘颖,徐志宏.浅议新加坡经济波动与产业结构的联系[J].市场论坛,2004(1)：10-12.
[113]谭崇台.发展经济学[M].太原：山西经济出版社,2001：252-270.
[114]唐志鹏、刘卫东、刘红光.投入产出分析框架下的产业结构协调发展测度[J].中国软科学,2010(3)：103-110.
[115]佟瑞,朱顺泉.基于因子分析法的我国各省市社会发展水平评价研究[J].生产力研究,2005(9)：19-20.
[116]汪传旭,刘大镕.产业结构合理化的定量分析模型[J].技术经济,2002(4)：51-53.
[117]汪云林,付允,李丁.基于投入产出的产业关联研究[J].工业技术经济,2008(5).
[118]王传士.工业品价格、产业序列与投资关系分析[J].皖西学院学报,2002(10)：17-20.
[119]王俊鹏.区域产业结构优化研究——以青岛市为例[D].青岛：山东科技大学,2006(5)：8-20.
[120]王明明.信息产业对经济全球化与经济周期波动的影响[J].中国软科学,2000(7)：20-23.
[121]王小鲁,夏小林.优化城市规模推动经济增长[J].经济研究,1999(9)：22-29.
[122]王晓璐.三十年来我国产业结构的演进和趋势[J].北方经贸,2010(2)：3-4.
[123]王岳平,葛岳静.我国产业结构的投入产出关联特征分析[J].管理世界,2007(2)
[124]魏守华、王缉慈等.产业集群：新型区域经济发展理论[J].经济经纬,2002(2)：18-21.
[125]温杰.中国产业结构升级的就业效应[D].湖北：华中科技大学,2005：12-23.
[126]夏炎,陈锡康,陈翠红.基于投入产出技术的能源效率新指标——生产能耗综合指数[J].管理评论,2010(2)：17-22.
[127]谢昌浩.云南省城乡居民消费结构的灰色关联度[J].统计与决策,2004(6)：80-81.
[128]谢九.2009,中国服务业正等待崛起[J].三联生活周刊,2008(48)：34-37.
[129]徐现祥,李郇.中国城市经济增长的趋同分析[J].经济研究,2004(4)：56-57.
[130]薛家声.基于投入产出模型的产业结构优化[J].暨南学报,2003(1)：49-53.
[131]薛敬孝,白雪洁.当代日本产业结构研究[M].天津：天津人民出版社,2002：1-10.
[132]晏艳阳,欧卫星.湖南与河南两省产业结构演进对比分析[J].湖湘论坛,2010(2)：96-99.
[133]杨小凯.发展经济学——超边际分析与边际分析[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003：50-60.
[134]杨永恒,胡鞍钢,张宁.基于主成份分析法的人类发展指数替代指数[J].经济研究,2005(7)：7-17.
[135]杨治.产业经济学导论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1985：60-85.
[136]于凤艳.中国城市经济增长过程中的产业结构变动研究[D].辽宁：辽宁大学,2008(5)：7-19.
[137]于同申.发展经济学——新世纪经济发展的理论与政策[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2000(10)：35-48.
[138]原毅军.经济增长周期与产业结构变动研究[J].中国工业经济研究,1991(6)：34-41.
[139]张海燕.我国宏观经济变量周期性波动的动态模型与计量分析[D].长春：吉林大学,2006：118-119.
[140]张军.增长、资本形成与技术选择：解释中国经济增长下降的长期因素[J].经济学季刊,2002,1(2)：301-338.
[141]张军.资本形成、工业化与经济增长：中国的转轨特征[J].经济研究,2002(6)：3-15.
[142]张丽峰.京津冀产业结构对经济增长影响差异性分析——基于面板数据模型的分析[J].工业技术经济,2008(2)：100-103.
[143]张楠,袁雪梅.江苏省产业结构有序度测算与分析[J].第16届全国灰色系统学术回忆论文集,2008：110-117.
[144]张新华.经济波动中的产业结构变化[J].管理世界,1988(2)：27-31.
[145]张亚斌,刘靓君.基于主成份分析的生产性服务业发展水平评价[J].求索,2008(12)：12-14.
[146]张蕴岭.经济发展与产业结构[M].北京：社会科技文献出版社,1991：189-215.
[147]赵听.产业集聚与城市化关系的实证分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2007(5)：94-97.
[148]钟勇.产业结构演进机理研究[D].北京：中国人民大学,2004(4)：20-23.
[149]周英章,蒋振生.我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究[J].浙江大学学报,2002(5)：146-152.
[150]周振华.产业结构演进的一般动因分析[J].财经科学,1990(3)：1-5.
[151]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1995：11-135.
[152]朱军.经济增长支撑条件的跨国比较[J].国际贸易问题,1999(12)：28-32.
[153]朱明春.产业结构·机制·政策[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1990：71-72.
[154]朱永升,王卫华,韩伯棠.影响房地产市场需求因素的灰色关联度分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2002(12)：782-785.
[155]朱玉林,何冰妮,李佳.湖南产业结构演进的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2008(4)：86-88.
[156]宗文.区域经济发展战略研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2004(5)：1-6.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |