能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的可计算一般均衡分析
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摘要
发展是人类社会永恒的主题，可持续发展是人类致力谋求的目标。能源作为动力原材料推动着经济和社会的高速发展，已成为现代社会发展不可或缺的基本因素。能源在推动经济增长和促进经济发展的同时，也会产生大量的温室气体，特别是二氧化碳。随着人类经济的不断发展以及能源消费的不断增加，温室气体排放加剧所引发的“全球气候变暖”、“生态系统恶化”等问题正严重威胁着人类的生存与发展。
作为世界上最大的发展中国家，中国正处在需要消耗大量能源来支撑的经济快速发展阶段，能源消费的持续增长导致温室气体排放的增长，并成为了世界第二大能源消费国家和第一大碳排放国家。在能源消费与碳排放双层约束下如何实现中国经济又好又快可持续发展是一个非常现实的议题。中国正处于积极推进经济转型升级与经济社会环境和谐发展的进程中，中国经济如果要经受住能源与环境保护的双重挑战，就必须寻求一条在能源可持续利用、环境保护和经济增长三者之间协调发展的道路。因此，探讨未来中国如何改变经济增长方式，如何实现能源消费、碳排放与经济增长协调发展，如何克服可能遇到的资源、资金、机制等各种障碍，在全球一体化的大背景下实现可持续发展和温室气体的减缓排放，走出一条适合中国自己的低碳发展之路，具有重要意义。
论文按照“文献梳理-现状分析-理论建模-政策模拟-政策建议”的技术路线展开。首先，系统梳理了经济增长与碳排放、经济增长与能源消费、能源消费与碳排放之间关系以及中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间关系等相关文献，探讨了能源环境可计算一般均衡模型的相关文献，确定采用动态可计算一般均衡分析工具分析能源环境政策的社会经济福利效应的研究思路。
其次，对我国目前能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的现状进行归纳和总结，并在新的研究方法视角下进一步探讨经济增长与碳排放、经济增长与能源消费、能源消费与碳排放之间关系以及中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的计量关系。运用平滑转移回归模型研究了能源消费对经济增长的影响效应，研究结果表明：我国能源消费与经济增长之间存在非线性关系，并且两者之间存在明显的区制转换的动态关系。采用非参数回归模型来测度我国经济增长与环境质量多拐点型库兹涅茨曲线，研究结果表明，不同的地区存在不同的环境拟合曲线，并且传统的倒“U”型曲线在我国基本上是不适用的，本文除得到了“U”型曲线和倒“N”型曲线外，还得到了直线型和“M”型曲线。应用LMDI分解方法分析中国2000年-2009年一次能源利用的CO2排放及碳排放强度的变化，研究显示能源结构的变化对碳排放增长表现为微弱负效应，能源效率变化对我国该阶段碳排放的的贡献率表现出明显的负效应。运用Toda-Yamamoto检验程序对中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的因果关系进行了计量研究，研究结果表明：经济增长与能源消费的增加会导致CO2排放的增加，反之则不成立；能源消费与经济增长之间存在双向的Granger因果关系。
接着，基于能源-经济-环境（3E）系统协调发展理论，从能源协调度、环境协调度和经济协调度三个方面选取28个指标构建了能源消费、碳排放与经济增长系统协调度综合评价指标体系。根据2011年全国30个省市的3E指标的最新统计资料，通过实证进行了纵向比较，发现系统协调度排名前五的地区是广东、江苏、北京、山东和浙江。总体来看，我国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长系统协调性普遍不高，地区协调度不平衡。
运用文献研究方法，以经济发达度、地域代表性、数据可获得性为样本选择标准，对世界典型国家节能减排能源环境政策——碳税、能源效率、节能科技研发及节能减排财政政策进行了对比分析，为下一步能源环境政策效应的动态CGE研究的政策模拟和结果分析提供现实背景和依据。
借鉴国外先进的CGE建模理论和技术，构建能反映能源消费、碳排放与经济增长系统协调发展以及能反映能源环境政策对能源节约、经济增长和环境保护作用程度的动态CGE模型。运用动态CGE模型，研究碳税和碳关税征收、能源技术变动及节能财政政策等方面设置能源环境政策的仿真研究场景，进行能源消费、碳排放与经济增长协调发展仿真研究，测度能源环境政策的实施对我国宏观经济变量、产业发展、节能减排、就业等影响程度。研究发现：碳税征收方式、税率大小及税收返还方式不同，碳税征收对我国宏观经济变量、产业发展、节能减排以及就业的影响程度也呈现出不同方向、大小的变动趋势。总体来说，碳税收入用于补贴个人消费者的征收方式对中国社会经济和能源环境影响效果是最好的，因此，国家在今后正式实施碳税征收的情况下，可以考虑这种模式。碳关税对中国形成了一个巨大挑战，甚至是对短期经济增长的一种阻碍，但从中国低碳经济、可持续发展的角度来看，无疑是对中国经济发展的一种外部驱动。它可以在一定程度上加快我国产业结构升级，约束我国企业的碳排放量，提高环保意识。因此，“碳关税”挑战可以成为中国实现可持续发展的契机。能源技术变动在短期和长期中对主要宏观经济变量都有较为明显的推动作用，国民生产总值、居民福利、消费、投资、政府支持及进出口相对于预测期都有一定程度的正向偏离，而且技术变动的幅度越大，所产生的正向偏离也就越大。能源使用技术的开发与应用能起到不错的节能减排效果。政府节能减排财政投入引起的全要素生产率增长会促进国家经济增长，对刺激消费，扩大内需，增加进出口，促进产业结构的调整，实现国民增收等都有明显的积极作用。通过政府节能减排财政投入的激励效应，可以起到降低整个社会的能源消费以及碳排放效应。
最后，运用对能源、环境政策执行过程中可能出现的问题提出科学的理论依据和有针对性的对策方案，从而为决策部门制定和完善政策体系提供科学的决策依据。
Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth constitute acomplex system. Among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economicgrowth，exists a dialectical relationship that connect with each other, restrict eachother.Social progress and economic development needs of the growing energyindustry as the support,but at the expense of the environment, energy developmentcan not be sustained；How to achieve China's sound and rapid economic sustainabledevelopment in the energy consumption and carbon emissions under the doubleconstraint is a very real issue. How to achieve China's sound and rapid economicsustainable development under the double constraint of energy consumption andcarbon emissions is a very real issue.As largest developing country of the world,China is in the process of actively promoting the economic transformation andupgrading and harmonious development of economy, society and environment.Wemust seek a road that can guide the coordinated development of sustainable use ofenergy, environmental protection and economic growth to make china’s economywithstand the double challenge of energy and environmental protection.
The paper in accordance with technical route of “Literature review-situationanalysis-theoretical modeling-Policy Simulation-policy recommendations”.First,we systematically combed the pertinent literature about the study of the relationshipbetween Economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth and energyconsumption, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions and therelationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth inchina.We discussed some literature about computable general equilibrium modelof energy and environment and decided the research thought that using analysistools—dynamic computable general equilibrium, to analysis welfare effect in socialeconomy of policy about energy and environment.
Second, we conclude and summarize China's current situation of energyconsumption, carbon emissions and economic growth and explored further therelationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth andenergy consumption, energy consumption and carbon emissions,as well as thequantitative relationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economicgrowth in China. The paper studied the effect of energy consumption to economic growth by using the smooth transfer of regression model.The results proved thatthere is a nonlinear relationship and n obvious the dynamic relationship of areasystem transformation between energy consumption and economic growth in China.Nonparametric regression model is used to measure Multi-inflexions Kuznets curvemodel of economic growth and environmental quality in China. The results showthat different areas have different environmental fitting curve and the traditionalinverted "U" type curve is basically not applicable in our country,in other words,theconclusions of paper support that the environmental Kuznets curve does not exist inchina.Compared with the traditional unsupported conclusion,the paper, in addition tothe "U" type curve and the "N" type curve, obtains the linear model and the "M"curve. LMDI decomposition method is applied to the analysis of the change of CO2emissions due to the use of China 's primary energy from2000to2009.Researchshows that the change of energy structure have an weak negative effects on thegrowth of carbon emissions, and the change of efficiency of energy showedsignificant negative effects on the contribution rate to the carbon emissions in thisphrase of china. Then the paper used Toda-Yamamoto test program to studyquantitatively on causality among China's energy consumption, carbon emissions andeconomic growth.of which results show that economic growth and energyconsumption are unidirectional Granger cause of CO2emissions,that is tosay,economic growth and the increase of energy consumption can lead to an increasein CO2emissions,but not vice versa,and there is a two-way Granger causalitybetween energy consumption and economic growth.
Then, On the basis of the connotation of the3E system’s coordinateddevelopment, the author selected28indicators from three aspects,namely energy,economy and environment to build the energy-economy-environment evaluationindex system of coordination (3e) system.According to latest statistics of3Eindicator of30provinces in2011,the paper conducted a longitudinal comparisonthrough the empirical and the top five areas are guangdong, jiangsu, Beijing,shandong and zhejiang in system coordination degree.In general,3E systemcoordination is generally not high in our country while regional coordination degreeis unbalanced.
The paper used the method of literature research，taking the economicallydeveloped degree,regional representative and the availability of data as the criteriaof sample’s selection,to conduct a contrastive analysis for policy about energy savingand emission reduction environmental Energy—policy that relate to carbon tax， research and development of energy saving and fiscal policy about energyconservation and emission reduction,providing realistic background and basis forthe next step—policy simulation and interpretation of result of the dynamic CGEresearch on effect of energy and environment policy.
We learn from foreign advanced theory and technology of CGEmodel,Constructing dynamic CGE model which can reflect the coordinateddevelopment of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth andreflect the degree of the impact of policy about energy environment on energyconservation, economic growth and environmental protection. In this paper,we studiedcarbon tax,collection of carbon tariffs, changes in energy technology,energy-efficient fiscal policy and other aspects,setting the the scene of simulationstudy about the energy and environmental policy.,conducting simulation studiesabout the coordinated development of Energy consumption, carbon emissions andeconomic growth,Measuring the impact of the implementation of the energy andenvironmental policies on macroeconomic variables, industrial development, energyconservation, employment etc. The result showed that the degree of influence that thecollection of carbon tax on China's macro-economic variables, industrial development,energy conservation and employment showed changing tendency in different directionand different size while tax rate and the pattern of carbon tax collection and taxrebates is different. On the whole, pattern that spending the carbon tax revenue forsubsidies to individual consumers have the best influence on socio-economy andenergy environment.Therefore, the pattem can be considereded when the stateformally implemented carbon tax case in the future.The carbon tariffs become a hugechallenge in China, even an obstacles to the short-term economic growth.But from thepoint of the development of China's low-carbon economy,and sustainabledevelopment, it is undoubtedly an external drive to China's economicdevelopment.It can speed up the upgrading of industrial structure in China to someextent, restrain the carbon emissions China's enterprises, enhance the awareness ofenvironmental protection. Therefore, the "carbon tariff" challenge can be anopportunity to achieve sustainable development for China.Changes in energytechnologies key macroeconomic variables can promote the key macroeconomicvariables significantlyin the short-term and long-term.Compared with the numberof forecast period,GNP, residents' welfare, consumption, investment, governmentsupport, import and export of has a certain degree of positive deviation. The greaterthe magnitude of changes in technology, the greater the positive deflection. The development and application of technologies in energy use can play a good role forenergy saving.The total factor productivity growth due to financial investment ofgovernment for energy saving can promote the country's economic growth and has asignificant positive effect on stimulating consumption and expanding domesticdemand, increasing import and export, promoting the adjustment of industrialstructure, and increasing national income etc.We can reduce energy consumptionand carbon emissions effect of the whole society by incentive effects that financialinvestment by government have on Energy conservation.
Finally,in terms of the problems that may arise during the execution ofenvironmental policy,the paper propose scientific and theoretical basis and targetedresponse options to provide a scientific basis for decision-making departmentsto develop and improve policy system.
作为世界上最大的发展中国家，中国正处在需要消耗大量能源来支撑的经济快速发展阶段，能源消费的持续增长导致温室气体排放的增长，并成为了世界第二大能源消费国家和第一大碳排放国家。在能源消费与碳排放双层约束下如何实现中国经济又好又快可持续发展是一个非常现实的议题。中国正处于积极推进经济转型升级与经济社会环境和谐发展的进程中，中国经济如果要经受住能源与环境保护的双重挑战，就必须寻求一条在能源可持续利用、环境保护和经济增长三者之间协调发展的道路。因此，探讨未来中国如何改变经济增长方式，如何实现能源消费、碳排放与经济增长协调发展，如何克服可能遇到的资源、资金、机制等各种障碍，在全球一体化的大背景下实现可持续发展和温室气体的减缓排放，走出一条适合中国自己的低碳发展之路，具有重要意义。
论文按照“文献梳理-现状分析-理论建模-政策模拟-政策建议”的技术路线展开。首先，系统梳理了经济增长与碳排放、经济增长与能源消费、能源消费与碳排放之间关系以及中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间关系等相关文献，探讨了能源环境可计算一般均衡模型的相关文献，确定采用动态可计算一般均衡分析工具分析能源环境政策的社会经济福利效应的研究思路。
其次，对我国目前能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的现状进行归纳和总结，并在新的研究方法视角下进一步探讨经济增长与碳排放、经济增长与能源消费、能源消费与碳排放之间关系以及中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的计量关系。运用平滑转移回归模型研究了能源消费对经济增长的影响效应，研究结果表明：我国能源消费与经济增长之间存在非线性关系，并且两者之间存在明显的区制转换的动态关系。采用非参数回归模型来测度我国经济增长与环境质量多拐点型库兹涅茨曲线，研究结果表明，不同的地区存在不同的环境拟合曲线，并且传统的倒“U”型曲线在我国基本上是不适用的，本文除得到了“U”型曲线和倒“N”型曲线外，还得到了直线型和“M”型曲线。应用LMDI分解方法分析中国2000年-2009年一次能源利用的CO2排放及碳排放强度的变化，研究显示能源结构的变化对碳排放增长表现为微弱负效应，能源效率变化对我国该阶段碳排放的的贡献率表现出明显的负效应。运用Toda-Yamamoto检验程序对中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者之间的因果关系进行了计量研究，研究结果表明：经济增长与能源消费的增加会导致CO2排放的增加，反之则不成立；能源消费与经济增长之间存在双向的Granger因果关系。
接着，基于能源-经济-环境（3E）系统协调发展理论，从能源协调度、环境协调度和经济协调度三个方面选取28个指标构建了能源消费、碳排放与经济增长系统协调度综合评价指标体系。根据2011年全国30个省市的3E指标的最新统计资料，通过实证进行了纵向比较，发现系统协调度排名前五的地区是广东、江苏、北京、山东和浙江。总体来看，我国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长系统协调性普遍不高，地区协调度不平衡。
运用文献研究方法，以经济发达度、地域代表性、数据可获得性为样本选择标准，对世界典型国家节能减排能源环境政策——碳税、能源效率、节能科技研发及节能减排财政政策进行了对比分析，为下一步能源环境政策效应的动态CGE研究的政策模拟和结果分析提供现实背景和依据。
借鉴国外先进的CGE建模理论和技术，构建能反映能源消费、碳排放与经济增长系统协调发展以及能反映能源环境政策对能源节约、经济增长和环境保护作用程度的动态CGE模型。运用动态CGE模型，研究碳税和碳关税征收、能源技术变动及节能财政政策等方面设置能源环境政策的仿真研究场景，进行能源消费、碳排放与经济增长协调发展仿真研究，测度能源环境政策的实施对我国宏观经济变量、产业发展、节能减排、就业等影响程度。研究发现：碳税征收方式、税率大小及税收返还方式不同，碳税征收对我国宏观经济变量、产业发展、节能减排以及就业的影响程度也呈现出不同方向、大小的变动趋势。总体来说，碳税收入用于补贴个人消费者的征收方式对中国社会经济和能源环境影响效果是最好的，因此，国家在今后正式实施碳税征收的情况下，可以考虑这种模式。碳关税对中国形成了一个巨大挑战，甚至是对短期经济增长的一种阻碍，但从中国低碳经济、可持续发展的角度来看，无疑是对中国经济发展的一种外部驱动。它可以在一定程度上加快我国产业结构升级，约束我国企业的碳排放量，提高环保意识。因此，“碳关税”挑战可以成为中国实现可持续发展的契机。能源技术变动在短期和长期中对主要宏观经济变量都有较为明显的推动作用，国民生产总值、居民福利、消费、投资、政府支持及进出口相对于预测期都有一定程度的正向偏离，而且技术变动的幅度越大，所产生的正向偏离也就越大。能源使用技术的开发与应用能起到不错的节能减排效果。政府节能减排财政投入引起的全要素生产率增长会促进国家经济增长，对刺激消费，扩大内需，增加进出口，促进产业结构的调整，实现国民增收等都有明显的积极作用。通过政府节能减排财政投入的激励效应，可以起到降低整个社会的能源消费以及碳排放效应。
最后，运用对能源、环境政策执行过程中可能出现的问题提出科学的理论依据和有针对性的对策方案，从而为决策部门制定和完善政策体系提供科学的决策依据。
Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth constitute acomplex system. Among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economicgrowth，exists a dialectical relationship that connect with each other, restrict eachother.Social progress and economic development needs of the growing energyindustry as the support,but at the expense of the environment, energy developmentcan not be sustained；How to achieve China's sound and rapid economic sustainabledevelopment in the energy consumption and carbon emissions under the doubleconstraint is a very real issue. How to achieve China's sound and rapid economicsustainable development under the double constraint of energy consumption andcarbon emissions is a very real issue.As largest developing country of the world,China is in the process of actively promoting the economic transformation andupgrading and harmonious development of economy, society and environment.Wemust seek a road that can guide the coordinated development of sustainable use ofenergy, environmental protection and economic growth to make china’s economywithstand the double challenge of energy and environmental protection.
The paper in accordance with technical route of “Literature review-situationanalysis-theoretical modeling-Policy Simulation-policy recommendations”.First,we systematically combed the pertinent literature about the study of the relationshipbetween Economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth and energyconsumption, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions and therelationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth inchina.We discussed some literature about computable general equilibrium modelof energy and environment and decided the research thought that using analysistools—dynamic computable general equilibrium, to analysis welfare effect in socialeconomy of policy about energy and environment.
Second, we conclude and summarize China's current situation of energyconsumption, carbon emissions and economic growth and explored further therelationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth andenergy consumption, energy consumption and carbon emissions,as well as thequantitative relationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economicgrowth in China. The paper studied the effect of energy consumption to economic growth by using the smooth transfer of regression model.The results proved thatthere is a nonlinear relationship and n obvious the dynamic relationship of areasystem transformation between energy consumption and economic growth in China.Nonparametric regression model is used to measure Multi-inflexions Kuznets curvemodel of economic growth and environmental quality in China. The results showthat different areas have different environmental fitting curve and the traditionalinverted "U" type curve is basically not applicable in our country,in other words,theconclusions of paper support that the environmental Kuznets curve does not exist inchina.Compared with the traditional unsupported conclusion,the paper, in addition tothe "U" type curve and the "N" type curve, obtains the linear model and the "M"curve. LMDI decomposition method is applied to the analysis of the change of CO2emissions due to the use of China 's primary energy from2000to2009.Researchshows that the change of energy structure have an weak negative effects on thegrowth of carbon emissions, and the change of efficiency of energy showedsignificant negative effects on the contribution rate to the carbon emissions in thisphrase of china. Then the paper used Toda-Yamamoto test program to studyquantitatively on causality among China's energy consumption, carbon emissions andeconomic growth.of which results show that economic growth and energyconsumption are unidirectional Granger cause of CO2emissions,that is tosay,economic growth and the increase of energy consumption can lead to an increasein CO2emissions,but not vice versa,and there is a two-way Granger causalitybetween energy consumption and economic growth.
Then, On the basis of the connotation of the3E system’s coordinateddevelopment, the author selected28indicators from three aspects,namely energy,economy and environment to build the energy-economy-environment evaluationindex system of coordination (3e) system.According to latest statistics of3Eindicator of30provinces in2011,the paper conducted a longitudinal comparisonthrough the empirical and the top five areas are guangdong, jiangsu, Beijing,shandong and zhejiang in system coordination degree.In general,3E systemcoordination is generally not high in our country while regional coordination degreeis unbalanced.
The paper used the method of literature research，taking the economicallydeveloped degree,regional representative and the availability of data as the criteriaof sample’s selection,to conduct a contrastive analysis for policy about energy savingand emission reduction environmental Energy—policy that relate to carbon tax， research and development of energy saving and fiscal policy about energyconservation and emission reduction,providing realistic background and basis forthe next step—policy simulation and interpretation of result of the dynamic CGEresearch on effect of energy and environment policy.
We learn from foreign advanced theory and technology of CGEmodel,Constructing dynamic CGE model which can reflect the coordinateddevelopment of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth andreflect the degree of the impact of policy about energy environment on energyconservation, economic growth and environmental protection. In this paper,we studiedcarbon tax,collection of carbon tariffs, changes in energy technology,energy-efficient fiscal policy and other aspects,setting the the scene of simulationstudy about the energy and environmental policy.,conducting simulation studiesabout the coordinated development of Energy consumption, carbon emissions andeconomic growth,Measuring the impact of the implementation of the energy andenvironmental policies on macroeconomic variables, industrial development, energyconservation, employment etc. The result showed that the degree of influence that thecollection of carbon tax on China's macro-economic variables, industrial development,energy conservation and employment showed changing tendency in different directionand different size while tax rate and the pattern of carbon tax collection and taxrebates is different. On the whole, pattern that spending the carbon tax revenue forsubsidies to individual consumers have the best influence on socio-economy andenergy environment.Therefore, the pattem can be considereded when the stateformally implemented carbon tax case in the future.The carbon tariffs become a hugechallenge in China, even an obstacles to the short-term economic growth.But from thepoint of the development of China's low-carbon economy,and sustainabledevelopment, it is undoubtedly an external drive to China's economicdevelopment.It can speed up the upgrading of industrial structure in China to someextent, restrain the carbon emissions China's enterprises, enhance the awareness ofenvironmental protection. Therefore, the "carbon tariff" challenge can be anopportunity to achieve sustainable development for China.Changes in energytechnologies key macroeconomic variables can promote the key macroeconomicvariables significantlyin the short-term and long-term.Compared with the numberof forecast period,GNP, residents' welfare, consumption, investment, governmentsupport, import and export of has a certain degree of positive deviation. The greaterthe magnitude of changes in technology, the greater the positive deflection. The development and application of technologies in energy use can play a good role forenergy saving.The total factor productivity growth due to financial investment ofgovernment for energy saving can promote the country's economic growth and has asignificant positive effect on stimulating consumption and expanding domesticdemand, increasing import and export, promoting the adjustment of industrialstructure, and increasing national income etc.We can reduce energy consumptionand carbon emissions effect of the whole society by incentive effects that financialinvestment by government have on Energy conservation.
Finally,in terms of the problems that may arise during the execution ofenvironmental policy,the paper propose scientific and theoretical basis and targetedresponse options to provide a scientific basis for decision-making departmentsto develop and improve policy system.
引文
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