比特产品的需求与供给研究
摘要
信息时代悄然来临,随着互联网概念的普及与互联网技术的应用,电脑、智能手机、平板电脑等终端设备成为人类社会不可或缺的“好伙伴”。与此同时,与人们日常生活息息相关的物质世界已不再像以前的农业社会和工业社会那样一旦供给丰富便可以很容易满足人们的需求,这是因为物质世界已经不由自主地发生了同态映射,它在满足了人们的基本生存需求的基础上,把人类带入了比特世界，激发了人们更高层次的需求。比特世界的出现是信息通信、网络和电子终端等科学技术蓬勃发展的必然,绝非昙花一现。
比特世界中比特产品的经济现象告诉我们：比特产品绝不是0,1的简单排列组合,二者的每一次“碰撞”都会擦出让消费者、生产者无比兴奋的“火花”,对消费者而言,这种“火花”意味着不断变化的欲望和需求；对生产者而言,这种“火花”意味着不用计较资源多与少的无限供给。可见,比特世界虽然只是物质世界的同态映射,但是其中的比特产品却与物质世界中的原子产品有着本质的区别,因为两者的成本规律和资源约束是不同的。基于此,本研究将对比特产品经济规律中最基本的的需求与供给规律进行探索,以将比特世界的神秘面纱揭开,从而为相关主体在制定相关策略决策时提供理论参考。
本文对比特产品的相关问题研究以及本研究中用到的比特产品的特性与分类、需求与供给的相关理论、博弈论的发展进程以及经典的讨价还价理论等进行了综述和评价,并对比特产品的定义进行了重新界定,认为本研究中的比特产品具有狭义和广义之分,狭义的比特产品指以比特或比特流形式存在的信息产品,这种产品以比特的形式存储与流通,并在网络等硬件媒介上以比特流的形式被传输。而广义的比特产品除了包括狭义的比特产品外,还包括以比特或比特流形式传输与存储的比特服务,这个概念突破了传统的服务涵义,具体体现在人们经常使用的google、百度之类的搜索平台、电子邮箱、电子商务交流平台等。
本文在回顾比特产品的特性分类概况的基础上,提炼出比特产品的最显著的特性——比特经济外部性,介绍比特经济外部性的内涵与特征,并对该特性展开经济分析,重点阐述比特经济外部性对比特厂商边际收益和规模收益的影响以及比特经济外部性对消费者的效用评价所带来的影响。在以上定性分析的基础上,笔者率先构建了边际消费者需求函数,同时对比原子产品的需求规律构建比特产品的需求函数并用matlab工具对需求模型进行仿真分析。在回顾比特产品的活动形态分类概况的基础上,笔者从比特产品的价值本身和消费者价值两个角度展开定性分析,基于CES效用函数进行公式推导,构建了两种比特产品的特例需求模型和多种比特产品的一般需求模型,并利用matlab工具对需求模型进行了仿真分析,进而总结出比特产品的需求规律。
本文对比传统经济中原子产品的供给分析并总结出其供给理论在解释比特产品的供给问题时所存在的缺陷,并在此基础上总结出单一比特产品和多种比特产品的供给规律：由于在比特经济环境下,是供给量(市场规模)对价格起的主要影响作用：随着某一比特产品供给量的增加,由于该比特产品的平均生产成本递减,所以该比特产品的售价可以越来越低。因此,现实中大家使用的很多比特产品都是免费的。用数学语言可以描述为：在比特经济中,供给曲线呈现下滑趋势而不是上扬的趋势。为了获取更大的收益,理性的生产者绝不会满足于提供一种比特产品,而是选择提供多种比特产品,分析得出：其他因素不变时,当某种比特产品价格高时,生产者倾向于提供更多种同类的比特产品(即能够给消费者带来同等效用的多种比特产品),当某种比特产品的价格降低甚至为零时,生产者倾向于不继续提供同种比特产品。考虑到比特经济系统中的多态均衡,笔者以讨价还价理论为基础,构建三种情境下的博弈模型来研究比特产品的买卖双方的最优策略均衡问题,三种情境分别为完全信息、不完全信息和双边拍卖机制,并且利用matlab工具对模型进行仿真分析,对比总结每个模型的优与弊,从理论上论证模型的价值所在。
本文在以上研究的基础上进一步阐述了比特经济环境下比特产品的反馈效应的产生原因,表现形式及其影响,是为了给比特经济系统中的相关活动主体在制定决策策略时提供理论参考。
本研究的主要成果及结论如下：
1、在回顾信息产品、网络产品、数字产品等相关概念的基础上,本研究首先给出了比特产品的概念、特性以及两种分类标准及分类结果：
(1)本研究中的比特产品具有狭义和广义之分,狭义的比特产品指以比特或比特流形式存在的信息产品,这种产品以比特的形式存储与流通,并在网络等硬件媒介上以比特流的形式被传输。而广义的比特产品除了包括狭义的比特产品外,还包括以比特或比特流形式传输与存储的比特服务,这个概念突破了传统的服务涵义,具体体现在人们经常使用的google、百度之类的搜索平台、电子邮箱、电子商务交流平台等。
(2)可见,比特产品是信息产品的子集,因此,从一定意义上讲,它自然地继承了信息产品的所有特征,但是对这些特性的继承程度是不同的,由于比特产品是以比特为基本单元存储信息,与其他非比特形式存在的产品相比,具有完全的非物质性,并且它继承下来的某些信息特性也产生了加强或减弱的效果。非物质性决定了比特产品不同于传统经济中的原子产品。本研究从生产、消费和交换三个经济活动环节的角度总结归纳了比特产品的特性,它们分别包括比特产品基本特性(非物质性、复杂性、易复制性)、生产特性(丰富性、规模经济性)、消费特性(消费无损耗性、增殖性、经验性、比特经济外部性、非独占性)、交换特性(非对称性、价值不确定性、交换方式多样性、传输便利性)等内容。
(3)比特产品是按照信息的载荷方式和存储介质为标准划分出的一类信息产品,信息产品的分类并非全部适用于比特产品分类,本研究通过对经典的数字产品分类及结果的分析,推导出比特产品的分类标准及其结果：比特产品按照功能与特性可以分为三类,即消费类,生产工具、支撑类和服务过程类；按照产品的活动形态可以分为两类,即复制型和共享型。
2、构建了基于比特产品特性分析的需求模型以及基于比特产品活动形态分类的需求模型并对模型进行仿真分析：
(1)在总结归纳比特产品特性的基础上,本研究对比特产品的基本特性、生产特性、消费特性和交换特性展开论述,并从中提炼出比特经济外部性,给出了比特经济外部性的含义、特征及其经济学意义：比特经济的外部性使得比特产品的价值随使用该产品人数的增加而增加,同时,该比特产品相关经济主体(该产品的制造者或消费者)的经济活动对他人和社会造成了非市场化的影响。
(2)比特经济外部性使得比特产品的价值随使用该产品人数的增加而增加,同时,该比特产品相关经济主体(该产品的制造者或消费者)的经济活动对他人和社会造成了非市场化的影响。比特产品在比特环境中的价值与比特环境中使用该产品的人数成正比。可见,比特经济外部性除了具有外部性所具有的特征外,就其比特特征而言,还具有互联性和非补偿性的特征。
(3)比特经济外部性强调价格和数量的正相关性,即某比特产品的使用人数越多则其价值越大,这促使后来进入该产品市场的购买者给出更高的价格预期。因此,比特经济外部性有着深远的经济学意义：由于比特产品成本递减和用户价值增值规律的双重作用,使得再生产一单位的比特产品所付出的成本减少,最终导致边际收益递增。比特经济下,由于比特经济外部性的作用,以及比特产品的平均成本在用户趋于无穷大时趋于零,所以,供应方的收益随着用户的规模增大持续增加,形成规模收益递增。
(4)基于本文对边际消费者的概念定义,给出了边际消费者的一般概念模型,该模型揭示了某一比特产品的使用频次与该比特产品自身特征之间的关系；模型可以从理论的角度解释边际消费者的消费者剩余变化的原因与趋势。
(5)对于比特产品的需求规律探究,随着加入比特经济环境的消费者越多,由于比特经济外部性的作用,使比特产品的价值越大,这时消费者的支付意愿也越大。基于此本研究假设消费者的支付意愿与比特产品的价格成正比,构建比特产品的需求模型并用matlab工具编写算法对模型进行仿真分析,论证了该模型的理论价值。考虑比特经济外部性的作用,本研究在建模时增加了新的维度变量R,利用matlab工具编写算法并将比特产品的需求曲线以三维空间的形式展示,以论证该模型的理论意义。二维与三维的仿真结果均映证了比特产品的需求规律,具体表现为比特产品的需求曲线呈现上扬的趋势。
(6)本研究从两个角度分析了比特产品的消费者效用评价的影响因素,一个是从比特产品本身的角度来看,比特经济环境下,梅特卡夫法则是如何拓展的；梅特卡夫法则扩展到比特产品的价值研究中可以得出：比特产品的价值以其消费者数量的平方的速度而增长,即V=n2(其中,V表示某比特产品的总价值,n表示该比特产品的使用者数量),这一扩展给出了比特环境下成本的递减规律和比特环境下用户价值的增值规律,使原梅特卡夫法则得到了极大地推广。另一个是从消费者的角度来看,重点考虑消费者的时间价值,消费者的外部性与转换成本以及比特经济环境下的个人资本与社会资本在消费者对该比特产品的效用评价方面产生的作用；不管是消磨时间的空闲还是花费时间的搜寻,都是消费者时间价值的有机组成部分,研究分析认为,虽然比特产品的价值随着消费者对该比特产品的使用次数增加而增加,但是时间价值对消费者来说是单向有限的,所以,考虑消费者时间价值的比特产品需求曲线是坡度很缓的向上倾斜的比特产品效用轨迹。随着用户对信息搜索技术水平的不断提升,消费者对比特产品的需求水平也在不断提升,即信息搜索水平与比特产品的需求水平呈正向变动。消费者外部性指消费者在购买产品时不仅受到产品本身效用的约束,而且受到该产品将来可能实现信息共享的其他消费者数量的预期的约束。转换成本(switching costs)指消费者用一种商品取代原来消费的商品时所产生的成本。消费者使用某种新比特产品的转换成本与该比特产品的需求价格弹性成反比,即若转换成本越高,则消费者对该比特产品的需求弹性越小,反之,若转换成本越低,则消费者对该比特产品的需求弹性越大,即消费者可以随时更换使用能够为其带来同等效用的其他比特产品。资本因素很可能会对消费者的效用起正向作用,进而促使需求曲线呈现向上倾斜的趋势。
(7)笔者使用CES效用函数,并给出了边际能力替代率和能力替代弹性的概念以及数学表达式,推导构建了基于比特产品活动形态的需求模型并利用matlab工具编写算法对模型进行仿真分析,证实了模型的理论价值。
3、本研究在考虑以上比特产品的需求规律的基础上,借鉴鲁宾斯坦的讨价还价理论,构建比特经济环境下三种情境的博弈模型并利用matlab工具编写算法对各个模型进行仿真对比分析,
(1)在追溯传统经济中原子产品供给理论以及总结该理论所存在的缺陷的基础上,本研究推导分析得出单一比特产品和多种比特产品的供给规律,在比特经济中,单一比特产品的供给曲线呈现下滑的趋势；而比特产品的种类供给曲线是一条向右上方倾斜的曲线。
(2)对博弈模型进行仿真分析,得出结论：完全信息下的讨价还价模型是交易效率最高的,双边拍卖机制情境下的单一价格均衡和线性均衡模型次之,最差的是不完全信息情境下单阶段讨价还价模型与两阶段讨价还价模型。
4、本研究综合考虑了比特经济系统中比特产品的需求规律以及供给规律,论证得出比特经济系统具有极强的正反馈效应。
本研究的主要创新点主要有以下四个方面：
1.本文从内涵和外延两个方面的因素给出了比特产品较为全面的的概念及定义,并且进一步研究它的特性与分类。
关于比特产品的定义,在马秋楠、江舫和钱昆鹏的硕士论文中均有所提及,但是江舫和钱昆鹏二人只是沿用马秋楠对比特产品的定义,即比特产品是以比特形式存在的信息产品,并未充分考虑到比特产品的外延,而本研究则考虑了这一点,给出了比特产品的较为全面的定义。
2.本研究在比特经济环境下构建了基于比特产品特性分析与活动形态分类的需求模型并进行仿真分析。分析了消费者时间价值、消费者外部性、消费者的个人资本与社会资本等因素对需求模型的影响。
由于目前需求建模的研究,集中在原子经济的的交易环境下,只有江舫在2010年对比特环境下进行需求建模,但是他仍然沿用了传统原子经济中价格作为自变量的研究套路,因此本研究拟考虑“消费者时间价值”、“比特经济外部性”、“比特经济下的个人资本与社会资本”与“比特产品的边际消费者”等效用评价影响因素来构建需求模型,将与江舫等学者所创建的模型一同为比特环境下的需求函数计算提供一套科学的建模方法。
3.本文基于比特产品的需求模型构建了供给需求三种情景下的博弈模型：研究买卖双方的最优策略组合,为今后使用博弈论来研究比特世界中比特产品的相关经济问题提供了一种新视角。
4.本文揭示了比特经济系统中的反馈效应规律,并用于解释比特产品的需求、定价等方面不同于原子产品的现象。
在创新点2、3的基础之上,本研究考虑决策者自身价值建立需求模型,并针对比特产品交易市场的特殊性,将市场规模作为自变量,对需求模型进行最优化决策。目前对需求的最优化是直接以需求模型作为目标函数,以价格作为决策变量,本研究拟以需求模型作为目标函数,以市场规模作为决策自变量,将为需求与供给决策提供一种新的最优化思路。
Information Age quietly arrives. Meanwile, with the popularity of the concept of Internet and the applications of Internet technology, computers, smart phones, tablet PCs and other terminal equipments have become an integral part of human society "good partners". At the same time, with people's daily lives, the material world is no longer like the previous agricultural society and industrial society, as once the rich supply can easily meet the demand of the people, which is because the physical world has been involuntarily Homomorphisms it is to meet the people's basic needs for survival on the basis of humanity into the world of bits and inspire people to higher levels of demand. The emergence of the world of bits is the science and technology of information and communication networks and electronic terminal flourish inevitable, and definitely not a flash in the pan.
Economic phenomenon of bit-product in the world of bits tells us: bit-product is by no means simple permutations of0,1, their every "collision" will work either allow consumers or producers are extremely excited about the "spark". To consumers, this "spark" means changing desires and needs, to producers, this "spark" means more supply not caring about resources unlimited. Although, the world of bits is material world Homomorphisms, but in which bit-products are essentially different form atoms products in material world, because the law of the cost and resource constraints between them are different. Based on this, the research will explore the law of demand and supply, which is basic in bit-product economic law, to uncover the mystery of the world of bits, so as to provide a theoretical reference related entities in the development of related policy decision.
This paper reviewed and evaluated the research on bit-product related issues, the characteristics and classification of bit-product used in this study, the demand and supply theory, the development process of game theory as well as the classic bargaining theory, and gave bit-product definition to redefine narrowly and broadly that bit-products in this study refers to bit or bit stream in the form of information products, narrow bit-product means storage and circulation of such products in the form of bits, and network hardware media is the form of a bit stream is transmitted. While the generalized bit-product means in addition to the narrow bit products, also bits and storage services, including transmission bit or bit stream in the form of this conceptual breakthrough the traditional meanings, embodied in the often use google, Baidu's class search platform, E-mail, e-commerce platform and so on.
This paper refined the most significant characteristic of bit-product_the bits economic externality based on review of bit-product characteristics'classification, to introduce the bits economic externality connotation and characteristics, and to expand the economic analysis of the characteristic, and focuses on the bits economic externality bit manufacturer marginal returns and returns to scale, and the bits economic externality impacts on consumer utility evaluation. On the basis of the above qualitative analysis, the author of the first to build the marginal consumer demand function simultaneously build the bit-product demand function comparing the atomic law of demand and use matlab tool doing demand model simulation analysis. Based on overview of classification of patterns of bit-product activity, the author expanded qualitative analysis both from the bit value in itself and consumer value. Based on CES utility function formula derivation, the author built the special case of two kinds bit-products demand model and multiple bit-products demand model using matlab simulation analysis tool on demand models, and summed up the law of bit-product demand.
This paper based on compareing traditional economics the atom products supply analysis and summed up the defects of its supply theory explaining bit-product supply problems, and summed up a single bit-product and a variety of bit-products the law of supply. Due to under the bits economic environment, the supply (market size) price makes the main effects that with the increase in bit-product supply, decreasing the average cost of production, the price of the bit-pr oducts can be more lower. Therefore, in reality a lot of bit-roducts that we use are free of charge.It can be described in mthematical language as follows:in bit economy, the supply curve appears downward trend rather than upward trend. Rational producers will never be satisfied in providing a kind of bit-product and choose insteadly to provide a variety of bit-products in order to obtain greater benefits. Aalyzed that:other factors were constant, when the high price of a certain bit producers tend to provide more similar bit-products (that is, able to bring the same utility to the consumer a variety of bit-products), when the price of a certain bit-products to reduce or even zero, producers would not tend to provide the same kinds of bit-products. Taking into account the the equilibrium the bits economic system, the author based bargaining theory to build game model to study the optimal strategy equilibrium problem between the bit-product buyers and sellers under three scenarios. Three scenarios were complete information, incomplete information and bilateral auction mechanism. This paper also made model simulation analysis using matlab tool and compared to summarize the advantages and disadvantages of each model in order to prove the theoretical value of these modes.
This paper further elaborated bit-product feedback effect causes, manifestations and its impact under bit economic environment on the basis of the above research, in order to provide a theoretical reference to the activities of the main bit economic system in the decision-making strategies.
The main results and conclusions of this study are as follows:
1This paper discussed and summed up bit-product features based on the study of the basic characteristics of bit-products, production characteristics, consumer characteristics and exchange properties and extracted bit economic externalities giving meaning characteristics of economic senses:
(1) Bit economic externality definition:When a bit-product increases the value of the user with the user of the product or compatible products increased, where has been a characteristic of bit economic externalities. That is, since the number of users increases, the role of the bit External economic, the original user get free the added value inherent in the product without the need to provide appropriate compensation for this part of the value.
(2) The bit economic externality makes bit value increases with the use of the product number, and at the same time, the bit-product related economic activity of economic entities (the maker of the product or consumers) of others and society caused by the non-the impact of market-oriented. I.e. the effectiveness of each user is obtained from the use of a bit product, is related to the total number of users. I.e. the effectiveness of each user is obtained from the use of a bit product, is related to the total number of users. The more the number of users, each user gets, the greater the effectiveness of, proportional to the number of bits using the product in the product value with the bit in the bit environment environment. Visible bit externalities addition to the characteristics of externality in terms of the characteristics of the bit also has the characteristics of the Internet and non-compensatory.
(3) Bit economic externality emphasized the positive correlation of price and quantity, the use of a bit more people the greater the value, which prompted the later buyers to enter the market of the product given the higher prices are expected. Therefore, the bits economic externalities have far reaching economic sense:the bits the product decreasing cost and user value of the dual role of the value-added regular, so pay the cost of reproduction of a unit bit products decreases, eventually leading to marginal revenue increments. The bit economy bits economic externalities role, and the average cost of bit user tends to infinity tends to zero, so the supply-side revenue increases continued to increase with the scale of the user, the form returns to scale increments.
2Based on the definition of the concept of this paper marginal consumer is given the general concept of the marginal consumer model The model reveals the use of the product of a bit frequency and the relationship between the bit product itself, models from a theoretical angle to explain the reasons for the changes and trends of the consumer surplus of the marginal consumer.
1) For in terms of the the bit-product demand, on the one hand, with the expected sales increase, demand for consumer prices increased. On the other hand, the more consumers as Jiarubite economic environment, because bits economic external sexual role, the greater the value of the bit products, then the consumer's willingness to pay. Based on this assumption in this study consumers' willingness to pay and bit product is proportional to the price of build the bit product demand model and algorithm simulation model matlab tool, demonstrated the theoretical value of the model. Consider the role of the bits economic externality, the increase in modeling a new dimension to the variable R matlab tools to write algorithms and bit product demand curve shows the form of three-dimensional space to demonstrate theoretical significance of the model. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional simulation results are reflected, the bits of the law of demand specific performance for the the bit demand curve in an upward trend.
2) Bit consumer utility evaluation factors, this study analyzed from two perspectives, one from bits of the product itself perspective, the bits economic environment; Metcalfe's Law is how to expand. Metcalfe's law extended to the bit value of the product study drawn:the bit value of the product for its growth in the square of the speed of the number of nodes, i.e. V=n2(V represented bits of the total value of the product, n represents the number of nodes bit product used), in which an extension given the cost of the law of diminishing bit environment and bit environment the user value of the value-added law, to allow Metcalfe rule greatly promote.
3)The other is from the consumer's point of view, the key consideration of the time value of the consumer, externality and switching costs of consumers as well as the bits economic environment of the personal capital and social capital in the consumers that bit utility evaluation role; whether to spend time idle or spend time search, are an integral part of the consumer time value, research analysis, although bits of the value of the products increase as consumers increased the frequency of use of the bit products the time value of consumers is one-way, so the bit to consider the time value of consumer product demand curve is very slow slope upward sloping trajectory bit product utility. With the rise of the technical level of information search, the level of consumer demand bit products is rising, and that the level of demand for the product of the level of information search and bits positive changes.
4) Consumer externalities when consumers buy products not only by the constraints of the product itself, utility, and subject to the constraints of the expected number of other consumer products in the future may achieve information sharing. The cost of switching costs (switching costs) refers consumers to replace the original consumer goods with a commodity. Consumer products using some new bits conversion cost is inversely proportional to the bit demand price elasticity, ie higher switching costs, the smaller the elasticity of demand of the consumers of this bit products, and vice versa, if the switching costs are lower, consumers greater the elasticity of demand this bit products that consumers can be replaced at any time to use to be able to bring the same utility bit product. When personal capital or social capital play a role in the personal choice, the demand side may appear the phenomenon of increasing returns, will increase with the expansion of the size of the market (consumption)(increase), the price of consumer demand, the demand curve which may rise.
5) The author used the CES utility function, and the the marginal capacity replacement rate and capacity elasticity of substitution concepts and mathematical expressions derived build a model based on the needs of the active form of bit product and write an algorithm using matlab tool model simulation analysis confirmed the the model theoretical value.
6) Retrospective traditional economic the theory of atomic Product supply as well as on the basis of summing up the theory of the existence of defects, this study deduced analyzed single bit of the law of supply of products and a variety of bit products, bits economy, the supply curve of a single bit products the downward trend; bits of the type of product supply curve is an upward-sloping curve.
3In this study, considering above bit on the basis of the demand and supply regular draw Rubinstein bargaining theory, game model building bits economic environment under three scenarios matlab tools to write algorithms for each model simulation comparison analysis was conclusions:incomplete information bargaining model is the the trading efficient the bilateral auction mechanism situational single price equilibrium and linear equilibrium model followed by the worst single-stage bargaining model with incomplete information contexts two-stage bargaining model.
4In this study, considering the the bit system bits law of demand and supply law, demonstrate to draw bits economic system has a strong positive feedback effect
In this study, the main innovations are mainly as the following aspects:
1To redefine the concept of bit products, and further study of its characteristics and classification:definition of bit products, and were referred to a master's thesis in of Ma Qiunan Jiang Fang and Qian Kunpeng, but Jiang Fang and Qian Kunpeng, two people just follow the the Ma Qiunan defined bit products, that bit of information products in the form of products based on bits, did not adequately take into account the bit epitaxial this study consider that given a bit more comprehensive definition.
2Establishing model based on the bit product classification demand: in bits economic environment, consumers personalized factors, build demand models consider the time value of consider external demand models, consider the personal and social capital, in bits economic environment utility model, and consider the utility value of the marginal consumer demand model. Due to the current demand modeling study, focused on the trading environment of the atom economy, only in2010, Jiang Fang bit environment demand modeling, but he still follows the traditional atom economy price as the independent variable routine. Therefore, this study proposes to consider the the consumers time value the effectiveness of the the bits economic externality economic bit personal capital and social capital product bit marginal consumers evaluation of influencing factors to build demand models, Jiang Fang scholars created the model together bit environments demand function to provide a set of scientific modeling method.
3Research buyers and sellers based on bit-product demand regular supply analysis creatively to build a game model under three scenarios: the optimal combination of strategies for future using game theory to study bit-product in the world economic problems of a new perspective. This is to bargain with the expansion and extension of the theory in the bits of Economic Research.
4Bit economic environment, the role of the law of demand and supply of the product in bit reveal the effect of feedback bits economic system:in innovative point2,3foundation, create demand model consider policy makers own value bit product market particularity, the size of the market as an independent variable demand model optimization decisions. Optimization of demand as the objective function directly to the demand model as a decision variable price, this study intends to demand model as the objective function, since the size of the market as a decision-making variables for the demand and supply decisions provide a new optimization ideas. The bit products demonstrated no negative feedback on the basis of innovation4, and only positive feedback effects bits activities participants practical guidance meaning is different from the material and economic conditions.
比特世界中比特产品的经济现象告诉我们：比特产品绝不是0,1的简单排列组合,二者的每一次“碰撞”都会擦出让消费者、生产者无比兴奋的“火花”,对消费者而言,这种“火花”意味着不断变化的欲望和需求；对生产者而言,这种“火花”意味着不用计较资源多与少的无限供给。可见,比特世界虽然只是物质世界的同态映射,但是其中的比特产品却与物质世界中的原子产品有着本质的区别,因为两者的成本规律和资源约束是不同的。基于此,本研究将对比特产品经济规律中最基本的的需求与供给规律进行探索,以将比特世界的神秘面纱揭开,从而为相关主体在制定相关策略决策时提供理论参考。
本文对比特产品的相关问题研究以及本研究中用到的比特产品的特性与分类、需求与供给的相关理论、博弈论的发展进程以及经典的讨价还价理论等进行了综述和评价,并对比特产品的定义进行了重新界定,认为本研究中的比特产品具有狭义和广义之分,狭义的比特产品指以比特或比特流形式存在的信息产品,这种产品以比特的形式存储与流通,并在网络等硬件媒介上以比特流的形式被传输。而广义的比特产品除了包括狭义的比特产品外,还包括以比特或比特流形式传输与存储的比特服务,这个概念突破了传统的服务涵义,具体体现在人们经常使用的google、百度之类的搜索平台、电子邮箱、电子商务交流平台等。
本文在回顾比特产品的特性分类概况的基础上,提炼出比特产品的最显著的特性——比特经济外部性,介绍比特经济外部性的内涵与特征,并对该特性展开经济分析,重点阐述比特经济外部性对比特厂商边际收益和规模收益的影响以及比特经济外部性对消费者的效用评价所带来的影响。在以上定性分析的基础上,笔者率先构建了边际消费者需求函数,同时对比原子产品的需求规律构建比特产品的需求函数并用matlab工具对需求模型进行仿真分析。在回顾比特产品的活动形态分类概况的基础上,笔者从比特产品的价值本身和消费者价值两个角度展开定性分析,基于CES效用函数进行公式推导,构建了两种比特产品的特例需求模型和多种比特产品的一般需求模型,并利用matlab工具对需求模型进行了仿真分析,进而总结出比特产品的需求规律。
本文对比传统经济中原子产品的供给分析并总结出其供给理论在解释比特产品的供给问题时所存在的缺陷,并在此基础上总结出单一比特产品和多种比特产品的供给规律：由于在比特经济环境下,是供给量(市场规模)对价格起的主要影响作用：随着某一比特产品供给量的增加,由于该比特产品的平均生产成本递减,所以该比特产品的售价可以越来越低。因此,现实中大家使用的很多比特产品都是免费的。用数学语言可以描述为：在比特经济中,供给曲线呈现下滑趋势而不是上扬的趋势。为了获取更大的收益,理性的生产者绝不会满足于提供一种比特产品,而是选择提供多种比特产品,分析得出：其他因素不变时,当某种比特产品价格高时,生产者倾向于提供更多种同类的比特产品(即能够给消费者带来同等效用的多种比特产品),当某种比特产品的价格降低甚至为零时,生产者倾向于不继续提供同种比特产品。考虑到比特经济系统中的多态均衡,笔者以讨价还价理论为基础,构建三种情境下的博弈模型来研究比特产品的买卖双方的最优策略均衡问题,三种情境分别为完全信息、不完全信息和双边拍卖机制,并且利用matlab工具对模型进行仿真分析,对比总结每个模型的优与弊,从理论上论证模型的价值所在。
本文在以上研究的基础上进一步阐述了比特经济环境下比特产品的反馈效应的产生原因,表现形式及其影响,是为了给比特经济系统中的相关活动主体在制定决策策略时提供理论参考。
本研究的主要成果及结论如下：
1、在回顾信息产品、网络产品、数字产品等相关概念的基础上,本研究首先给出了比特产品的概念、特性以及两种分类标准及分类结果：
(1)本研究中的比特产品具有狭义和广义之分,狭义的比特产品指以比特或比特流形式存在的信息产品,这种产品以比特的形式存储与流通,并在网络等硬件媒介上以比特流的形式被传输。而广义的比特产品除了包括狭义的比特产品外,还包括以比特或比特流形式传输与存储的比特服务,这个概念突破了传统的服务涵义,具体体现在人们经常使用的google、百度之类的搜索平台、电子邮箱、电子商务交流平台等。
(2)可见,比特产品是信息产品的子集,因此,从一定意义上讲,它自然地继承了信息产品的所有特征,但是对这些特性的继承程度是不同的,由于比特产品是以比特为基本单元存储信息,与其他非比特形式存在的产品相比,具有完全的非物质性,并且它继承下来的某些信息特性也产生了加强或减弱的效果。非物质性决定了比特产品不同于传统经济中的原子产品。本研究从生产、消费和交换三个经济活动环节的角度总结归纳了比特产品的特性,它们分别包括比特产品基本特性(非物质性、复杂性、易复制性)、生产特性(丰富性、规模经济性)、消费特性(消费无损耗性、增殖性、经验性、比特经济外部性、非独占性)、交换特性(非对称性、价值不确定性、交换方式多样性、传输便利性)等内容。
(3)比特产品是按照信息的载荷方式和存储介质为标准划分出的一类信息产品,信息产品的分类并非全部适用于比特产品分类,本研究通过对经典的数字产品分类及结果的分析,推导出比特产品的分类标准及其结果：比特产品按照功能与特性可以分为三类,即消费类,生产工具、支撑类和服务过程类；按照产品的活动形态可以分为两类,即复制型和共享型。
2、构建了基于比特产品特性分析的需求模型以及基于比特产品活动形态分类的需求模型并对模型进行仿真分析：
(1)在总结归纳比特产品特性的基础上,本研究对比特产品的基本特性、生产特性、消费特性和交换特性展开论述,并从中提炼出比特经济外部性,给出了比特经济外部性的含义、特征及其经济学意义：比特经济的外部性使得比特产品的价值随使用该产品人数的增加而增加,同时,该比特产品相关经济主体(该产品的制造者或消费者)的经济活动对他人和社会造成了非市场化的影响。
(2)比特经济外部性使得比特产品的价值随使用该产品人数的增加而增加,同时,该比特产品相关经济主体(该产品的制造者或消费者)的经济活动对他人和社会造成了非市场化的影响。比特产品在比特环境中的价值与比特环境中使用该产品的人数成正比。可见,比特经济外部性除了具有外部性所具有的特征外,就其比特特征而言,还具有互联性和非补偿性的特征。
(3)比特经济外部性强调价格和数量的正相关性,即某比特产品的使用人数越多则其价值越大,这促使后来进入该产品市场的购买者给出更高的价格预期。因此,比特经济外部性有着深远的经济学意义：由于比特产品成本递减和用户价值增值规律的双重作用,使得再生产一单位的比特产品所付出的成本减少,最终导致边际收益递增。比特经济下,由于比特经济外部性的作用,以及比特产品的平均成本在用户趋于无穷大时趋于零,所以,供应方的收益随着用户的规模增大持续增加,形成规模收益递增。
(4)基于本文对边际消费者的概念定义,给出了边际消费者的一般概念模型,该模型揭示了某一比特产品的使用频次与该比特产品自身特征之间的关系；模型可以从理论的角度解释边际消费者的消费者剩余变化的原因与趋势。
(5)对于比特产品的需求规律探究,随着加入比特经济环境的消费者越多,由于比特经济外部性的作用,使比特产品的价值越大,这时消费者的支付意愿也越大。基于此本研究假设消费者的支付意愿与比特产品的价格成正比,构建比特产品的需求模型并用matlab工具编写算法对模型进行仿真分析,论证了该模型的理论价值。考虑比特经济外部性的作用,本研究在建模时增加了新的维度变量R,利用matlab工具编写算法并将比特产品的需求曲线以三维空间的形式展示,以论证该模型的理论意义。二维与三维的仿真结果均映证了比特产品的需求规律,具体表现为比特产品的需求曲线呈现上扬的趋势。
(6)本研究从两个角度分析了比特产品的消费者效用评价的影响因素,一个是从比特产品本身的角度来看,比特经济环境下,梅特卡夫法则是如何拓展的；梅特卡夫法则扩展到比特产品的价值研究中可以得出：比特产品的价值以其消费者数量的平方的速度而增长,即V=n2(其中,V表示某比特产品的总价值,n表示该比特产品的使用者数量),这一扩展给出了比特环境下成本的递减规律和比特环境下用户价值的增值规律,使原梅特卡夫法则得到了极大地推广。另一个是从消费者的角度来看,重点考虑消费者的时间价值,消费者的外部性与转换成本以及比特经济环境下的个人资本与社会资本在消费者对该比特产品的效用评价方面产生的作用；不管是消磨时间的空闲还是花费时间的搜寻,都是消费者时间价值的有机组成部分,研究分析认为,虽然比特产品的价值随着消费者对该比特产品的使用次数增加而增加,但是时间价值对消费者来说是单向有限的,所以,考虑消费者时间价值的比特产品需求曲线是坡度很缓的向上倾斜的比特产品效用轨迹。随着用户对信息搜索技术水平的不断提升,消费者对比特产品的需求水平也在不断提升,即信息搜索水平与比特产品的需求水平呈正向变动。消费者外部性指消费者在购买产品时不仅受到产品本身效用的约束,而且受到该产品将来可能实现信息共享的其他消费者数量的预期的约束。转换成本(switching costs)指消费者用一种商品取代原来消费的商品时所产生的成本。消费者使用某种新比特产品的转换成本与该比特产品的需求价格弹性成反比,即若转换成本越高,则消费者对该比特产品的需求弹性越小,反之,若转换成本越低,则消费者对该比特产品的需求弹性越大,即消费者可以随时更换使用能够为其带来同等效用的其他比特产品。资本因素很可能会对消费者的效用起正向作用,进而促使需求曲线呈现向上倾斜的趋势。
(7)笔者使用CES效用函数,并给出了边际能力替代率和能力替代弹性的概念以及数学表达式,推导构建了基于比特产品活动形态的需求模型并利用matlab工具编写算法对模型进行仿真分析,证实了模型的理论价值。
3、本研究在考虑以上比特产品的需求规律的基础上,借鉴鲁宾斯坦的讨价还价理论,构建比特经济环境下三种情境的博弈模型并利用matlab工具编写算法对各个模型进行仿真对比分析,
(1)在追溯传统经济中原子产品供给理论以及总结该理论所存在的缺陷的基础上,本研究推导分析得出单一比特产品和多种比特产品的供给规律,在比特经济中,单一比特产品的供给曲线呈现下滑的趋势；而比特产品的种类供给曲线是一条向右上方倾斜的曲线。
(2)对博弈模型进行仿真分析,得出结论：完全信息下的讨价还价模型是交易效率最高的,双边拍卖机制情境下的单一价格均衡和线性均衡模型次之,最差的是不完全信息情境下单阶段讨价还价模型与两阶段讨价还价模型。
4、本研究综合考虑了比特经济系统中比特产品的需求规律以及供给规律,论证得出比特经济系统具有极强的正反馈效应。
本研究的主要创新点主要有以下四个方面：
1.本文从内涵和外延两个方面的因素给出了比特产品较为全面的的概念及定义,并且进一步研究它的特性与分类。
关于比特产品的定义,在马秋楠、江舫和钱昆鹏的硕士论文中均有所提及,但是江舫和钱昆鹏二人只是沿用马秋楠对比特产品的定义,即比特产品是以比特形式存在的信息产品,并未充分考虑到比特产品的外延,而本研究则考虑了这一点,给出了比特产品的较为全面的定义。
2.本研究在比特经济环境下构建了基于比特产品特性分析与活动形态分类的需求模型并进行仿真分析。分析了消费者时间价值、消费者外部性、消费者的个人资本与社会资本等因素对需求模型的影响。
由于目前需求建模的研究,集中在原子经济的的交易环境下,只有江舫在2010年对比特环境下进行需求建模,但是他仍然沿用了传统原子经济中价格作为自变量的研究套路,因此本研究拟考虑“消费者时间价值”、“比特经济外部性”、“比特经济下的个人资本与社会资本”与“比特产品的边际消费者”等效用评价影响因素来构建需求模型,将与江舫等学者所创建的模型一同为比特环境下的需求函数计算提供一套科学的建模方法。
3.本文基于比特产品的需求模型构建了供给需求三种情景下的博弈模型：研究买卖双方的最优策略组合,为今后使用博弈论来研究比特世界中比特产品的相关经济问题提供了一种新视角。
4.本文揭示了比特经济系统中的反馈效应规律,并用于解释比特产品的需求、定价等方面不同于原子产品的现象。
在创新点2、3的基础之上,本研究考虑决策者自身价值建立需求模型,并针对比特产品交易市场的特殊性,将市场规模作为自变量,对需求模型进行最优化决策。目前对需求的最优化是直接以需求模型作为目标函数,以价格作为决策变量,本研究拟以需求模型作为目标函数,以市场规模作为决策自变量,将为需求与供给决策提供一种新的最优化思路。
Information Age quietly arrives. Meanwile, with the popularity of the concept of Internet and the applications of Internet technology, computers, smart phones, tablet PCs and other terminal equipments have become an integral part of human society "good partners". At the same time, with people's daily lives, the material world is no longer like the previous agricultural society and industrial society, as once the rich supply can easily meet the demand of the people, which is because the physical world has been involuntarily Homomorphisms it is to meet the people's basic needs for survival on the basis of humanity into the world of bits and inspire people to higher levels of demand. The emergence of the world of bits is the science and technology of information and communication networks and electronic terminal flourish inevitable, and definitely not a flash in the pan.
Economic phenomenon of bit-product in the world of bits tells us: bit-product is by no means simple permutations of0,1, their every "collision" will work either allow consumers or producers are extremely excited about the "spark". To consumers, this "spark" means changing desires and needs, to producers, this "spark" means more supply not caring about resources unlimited. Although, the world of bits is material world Homomorphisms, but in which bit-products are essentially different form atoms products in material world, because the law of the cost and resource constraints between them are different. Based on this, the research will explore the law of demand and supply, which is basic in bit-product economic law, to uncover the mystery of the world of bits, so as to provide a theoretical reference related entities in the development of related policy decision.
This paper reviewed and evaluated the research on bit-product related issues, the characteristics and classification of bit-product used in this study, the demand and supply theory, the development process of game theory as well as the classic bargaining theory, and gave bit-product definition to redefine narrowly and broadly that bit-products in this study refers to bit or bit stream in the form of information products, narrow bit-product means storage and circulation of such products in the form of bits, and network hardware media is the form of a bit stream is transmitted. While the generalized bit-product means in addition to the narrow bit products, also bits and storage services, including transmission bit or bit stream in the form of this conceptual breakthrough the traditional meanings, embodied in the often use google, Baidu's class search platform, E-mail, e-commerce platform and so on.
This paper refined the most significant characteristic of bit-product_the bits economic externality based on review of bit-product characteristics'classification, to introduce the bits economic externality connotation and characteristics, and to expand the economic analysis of the characteristic, and focuses on the bits economic externality bit manufacturer marginal returns and returns to scale, and the bits economic externality impacts on consumer utility evaluation. On the basis of the above qualitative analysis, the author of the first to build the marginal consumer demand function simultaneously build the bit-product demand function comparing the atomic law of demand and use matlab tool doing demand model simulation analysis. Based on overview of classification of patterns of bit-product activity, the author expanded qualitative analysis both from the bit value in itself and consumer value. Based on CES utility function formula derivation, the author built the special case of two kinds bit-products demand model and multiple bit-products demand model using matlab simulation analysis tool on demand models, and summed up the law of bit-product demand.
This paper based on compareing traditional economics the atom products supply analysis and summed up the defects of its supply theory explaining bit-product supply problems, and summed up a single bit-product and a variety of bit-products the law of supply. Due to under the bits economic environment, the supply (market size) price makes the main effects that with the increase in bit-product supply, decreasing the average cost of production, the price of the bit-pr oducts can be more lower. Therefore, in reality a lot of bit-roducts that we use are free of charge.It can be described in mthematical language as follows:in bit economy, the supply curve appears downward trend rather than upward trend. Rational producers will never be satisfied in providing a kind of bit-product and choose insteadly to provide a variety of bit-products in order to obtain greater benefits. Aalyzed that:other factors were constant, when the high price of a certain bit producers tend to provide more similar bit-products (that is, able to bring the same utility to the consumer a variety of bit-products), when the price of a certain bit-products to reduce or even zero, producers would not tend to provide the same kinds of bit-products. Taking into account the the equilibrium the bits economic system, the author based bargaining theory to build game model to study the optimal strategy equilibrium problem between the bit-product buyers and sellers under three scenarios. Three scenarios were complete information, incomplete information and bilateral auction mechanism. This paper also made model simulation analysis using matlab tool and compared to summarize the advantages and disadvantages of each model in order to prove the theoretical value of these modes.
This paper further elaborated bit-product feedback effect causes, manifestations and its impact under bit economic environment on the basis of the above research, in order to provide a theoretical reference to the activities of the main bit economic system in the decision-making strategies.
The main results and conclusions of this study are as follows:
1This paper discussed and summed up bit-product features based on the study of the basic characteristics of bit-products, production characteristics, consumer characteristics and exchange properties and extracted bit economic externalities giving meaning characteristics of economic senses:
(1) Bit economic externality definition:When a bit-product increases the value of the user with the user of the product or compatible products increased, where has been a characteristic of bit economic externalities. That is, since the number of users increases, the role of the bit External economic, the original user get free the added value inherent in the product without the need to provide appropriate compensation for this part of the value.
(2) The bit economic externality makes bit value increases with the use of the product number, and at the same time, the bit-product related economic activity of economic entities (the maker of the product or consumers) of others and society caused by the non-the impact of market-oriented. I.e. the effectiveness of each user is obtained from the use of a bit product, is related to the total number of users. I.e. the effectiveness of each user is obtained from the use of a bit product, is related to the total number of users. The more the number of users, each user gets, the greater the effectiveness of, proportional to the number of bits using the product in the product value with the bit in the bit environment environment. Visible bit externalities addition to the characteristics of externality in terms of the characteristics of the bit also has the characteristics of the Internet and non-compensatory.
(3) Bit economic externality emphasized the positive correlation of price and quantity, the use of a bit more people the greater the value, which prompted the later buyers to enter the market of the product given the higher prices are expected. Therefore, the bits economic externalities have far reaching economic sense:the bits the product decreasing cost and user value of the dual role of the value-added regular, so pay the cost of reproduction of a unit bit products decreases, eventually leading to marginal revenue increments. The bit economy bits economic externalities role, and the average cost of bit user tends to infinity tends to zero, so the supply-side revenue increases continued to increase with the scale of the user, the form returns to scale increments.
2Based on the definition of the concept of this paper marginal consumer is given the general concept of the marginal consumer model The model reveals the use of the product of a bit frequency and the relationship between the bit product itself, models from a theoretical angle to explain the reasons for the changes and trends of the consumer surplus of the marginal consumer.
1) For in terms of the the bit-product demand, on the one hand, with the expected sales increase, demand for consumer prices increased. On the other hand, the more consumers as Jiarubite economic environment, because bits economic external sexual role, the greater the value of the bit products, then the consumer's willingness to pay. Based on this assumption in this study consumers' willingness to pay and bit product is proportional to the price of build the bit product demand model and algorithm simulation model matlab tool, demonstrated the theoretical value of the model. Consider the role of the bits economic externality, the increase in modeling a new dimension to the variable R matlab tools to write algorithms and bit product demand curve shows the form of three-dimensional space to demonstrate theoretical significance of the model. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional simulation results are reflected, the bits of the law of demand specific performance for the the bit demand curve in an upward trend.
2) Bit consumer utility evaluation factors, this study analyzed from two perspectives, one from bits of the product itself perspective, the bits economic environment; Metcalfe's Law is how to expand. Metcalfe's law extended to the bit value of the product study drawn:the bit value of the product for its growth in the square of the speed of the number of nodes, i.e. V=n2(V represented bits of the total value of the product, n represents the number of nodes bit product used), in which an extension given the cost of the law of diminishing bit environment and bit environment the user value of the value-added law, to allow Metcalfe rule greatly promote.
3)The other is from the consumer's point of view, the key consideration of the time value of the consumer, externality and switching costs of consumers as well as the bits economic environment of the personal capital and social capital in the consumers that bit utility evaluation role; whether to spend time idle or spend time search, are an integral part of the consumer time value, research analysis, although bits of the value of the products increase as consumers increased the frequency of use of the bit products the time value of consumers is one-way, so the bit to consider the time value of consumer product demand curve is very slow slope upward sloping trajectory bit product utility. With the rise of the technical level of information search, the level of consumer demand bit products is rising, and that the level of demand for the product of the level of information search and bits positive changes.
4) Consumer externalities when consumers buy products not only by the constraints of the product itself, utility, and subject to the constraints of the expected number of other consumer products in the future may achieve information sharing. The cost of switching costs (switching costs) refers consumers to replace the original consumer goods with a commodity. Consumer products using some new bits conversion cost is inversely proportional to the bit demand price elasticity, ie higher switching costs, the smaller the elasticity of demand of the consumers of this bit products, and vice versa, if the switching costs are lower, consumers greater the elasticity of demand this bit products that consumers can be replaced at any time to use to be able to bring the same utility bit product. When personal capital or social capital play a role in the personal choice, the demand side may appear the phenomenon of increasing returns, will increase with the expansion of the size of the market (consumption)(increase), the price of consumer demand, the demand curve which may rise.
5) The author used the CES utility function, and the the marginal capacity replacement rate and capacity elasticity of substitution concepts and mathematical expressions derived build a model based on the needs of the active form of bit product and write an algorithm using matlab tool model simulation analysis confirmed the the model theoretical value.
6) Retrospective traditional economic the theory of atomic Product supply as well as on the basis of summing up the theory of the existence of defects, this study deduced analyzed single bit of the law of supply of products and a variety of bit products, bits economy, the supply curve of a single bit products the downward trend; bits of the type of product supply curve is an upward-sloping curve.
3In this study, considering above bit on the basis of the demand and supply regular draw Rubinstein bargaining theory, game model building bits economic environment under three scenarios matlab tools to write algorithms for each model simulation comparison analysis was conclusions:incomplete information bargaining model is the the trading efficient the bilateral auction mechanism situational single price equilibrium and linear equilibrium model followed by the worst single-stage bargaining model with incomplete information contexts two-stage bargaining model.
4In this study, considering the the bit system bits law of demand and supply law, demonstrate to draw bits economic system has a strong positive feedback effect
In this study, the main innovations are mainly as the following aspects:
1To redefine the concept of bit products, and further study of its characteristics and classification:definition of bit products, and were referred to a master's thesis in of Ma Qiunan Jiang Fang and Qian Kunpeng, but Jiang Fang and Qian Kunpeng, two people just follow the the Ma Qiunan defined bit products, that bit of information products in the form of products based on bits, did not adequately take into account the bit epitaxial this study consider that given a bit more comprehensive definition.
2Establishing model based on the bit product classification demand: in bits economic environment, consumers personalized factors, build demand models consider the time value of consider external demand models, consider the personal and social capital, in bits economic environment utility model, and consider the utility value of the marginal consumer demand model. Due to the current demand modeling study, focused on the trading environment of the atom economy, only in2010, Jiang Fang bit environment demand modeling, but he still follows the traditional atom economy price as the independent variable routine. Therefore, this study proposes to consider the the consumers time value the effectiveness of the the bits economic externality economic bit personal capital and social capital product bit marginal consumers evaluation of influencing factors to build demand models, Jiang Fang scholars created the model together bit environments demand function to provide a set of scientific modeling method.
3Research buyers and sellers based on bit-product demand regular supply analysis creatively to build a game model under three scenarios: the optimal combination of strategies for future using game theory to study bit-product in the world economic problems of a new perspective. This is to bargain with the expansion and extension of the theory in the bits of Economic Research.
4Bit economic environment, the role of the law of demand and supply of the product in bit reveal the effect of feedback bits economic system:in innovative point2,3foundation, create demand model consider policy makers own value bit product market particularity, the size of the market as an independent variable demand model optimization decisions. Optimization of demand as the objective function directly to the demand model as a decision variable price, this study intends to demand model as the objective function, since the size of the market as a decision-making variables for the demand and supply decisions provide a new optimization ideas. The bit products demonstrated no negative feedback on the basis of innovation4, and only positive feedback effects bits activities participants practical guidance meaning is different from the material and economic conditions.
引文
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