中国石化产业碳强度影响因素研究
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摘要
人类工业活动产生的温室气体排放被认为是造成全球气候变暖的重要原因。石化产业作为温室气体排放的主要产业之一，在国家的温室气体控制中需承担重要的减排任务。为此工业和信息化部于2011年12月制定的《石化和化学工业“十二五”发展规划》明确要求石化产业到十二五规划末年全行业单位工业增加值能源消耗降低20%、二氧化碳排放降低17%，为确保该目标的顺利实现，石化产业积极开展了碳强度降低行动，但效果不甚理想。如何识别石化产业碳强度影响因素，理清各影响因素间的相互作用关系，保障石化产业碳强度降低行动有效开展，进而提升石化产业的低碳竞争优势已成为学术界和产业界重点关注的问题。
目前学者们对石化产业碳强度影响的研究还处于探索阶段，缺乏对石化产业碳强度影响的系统研究，尤其是缺乏实证研究。在总结梳理国内外研究成果的基础上，构建石化产业碳强度影响因素的理论框架，对石化产业碳强度的直接影响、间接影响和动态影响机理进行研究，既考虑各影响因素对石化产业碳强度的单独影响，又考虑影响因素交互作用对石化产业碳强度的动态影响，具体内容如下：
从界定石化产业碳强度相关概念出发，分析石化产业碳强度降低的动机和本质，提出石化产业碳强度受产业结构、能源消费结构、能源强度和能源排放强度的直接影响；受政府层面、市场层面、舆论层面和组织层面要素的间接影响，在此基础上设计石化产业碳强度影响的理论框架，为下文的研究提供理论支持。
在中国石化产业碳强度直接影响分析中，以石化产业碳强度直接影响因素的理论分析为逻辑起点，构建二氧化碳排放量测算模型、石化产业碳强度直接影响因素分解模型和石化产业碳强度的解耦状态模型，利用各类统计年鉴中关于石化产业的相关数据，对中国石化产业碳强度的解耦状态进行测度，并对中国石化产业碳强度各解耦阶段的主要影响因素进行分析。
在中国石化产业碳强度间接影响分析中，以石化产业碳强度间接影响因素分析为理论基础，深入分析政府层面中的政府政策和政府行为对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；市场层面中的市场准入、竞争状况和利益相关者对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；舆论层面中的媒体报道和社会异常事件对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；组织层面中的组织文化、组织战略、组织结构和组织知识对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；以及低碳技术创新对碳强度的影响，剖析石化产业碳强度的间接影响因素之间的关系，并提出相应理论假设和路径分析模型。在此基础上进行问卷设计和构念测量，基于中国石化企业259份有效样本数据，利用偏最小二乘结构方程模型对所构建的理论模型进行实证检验，深入分析影响因素本身及其相互作用后对石化产业碳强度的影响。
在中国石化产业碳强度动态影响的仿真分析及碳减排策略选择中，以石化产业碳强度直接影响和间接影响的研究为基础，运用系统动力学理论将石化产业碳强度影响因素与碳强度数量的动态变化相联系，建立石化产业碳强度动态影响的系统动力学模型，仿真模拟在政府层面、市场层面、舆论层面和组织层面要素作用下石化产业碳强度的波动变化，并通过调节调控变量，考察石化产业碳强度的数量改变程度。结合仿真分析结果，从政府层面、市场层面、舆论层面和组织层面入手，提出加速中国石化产业碳强度降低的策略。
Greenhouse gas emissions generated by human industrial activities areconsidered to be an important reason for causing global warming. As one of themajor industries of the greenhouse gas emissions, petrochemical industryrequired to assume control of the country's greenhouse gas emission reductiontask. Thus, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology developed the“petrochemical and chemical industry12th Five-Year development plan” inDecember2011, which explicitly requires the petrochemical industry to realize20%reduction in energy consumption per unit of industrial added value ofindustry-wide and the carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by17%untilthe end year of ‘Twelfth Five-Year Plan’. In order to ensure the realization of thegoal, the petrochemical industry has already carried out actions to reduce carbonintensity, however the effect is very limited than expected. How to identify thecarbon intensity’s influence factors of the petrochemical industry and to clarifythe interaction between the various factors, to ensure the petrochemical industrycould carry out the actions of carbon intensity reduce, therefore to enhancelow-carbon competitive advantage, have become the focus of academia andindustry problems.
The studies on the impact of the petrochemical industry’s carbon intensityare still in the first stage. The systematic researches, especially the empiricalresearches are scarce. Based on the summarise of the research results at homeand abroad, our paper builds the theoretical framework of the carbon factors ofpetrochemical industry, studies on the direct impact, indirect impact, anddynamic effect mechanism of the carbon intensity in Chinese petrochemicalindustry, both considering the separate effects of influential factors on the carbonintensity of the petrochemical industry and the dynamic interaction between thefactors. The detailed content as follows:
Our paper starts from the definition of the related concepts of the carbonintensity in the petrochemical industry; then analyzes the motivation and thenature of the petrochemical industry carbon intensity reduction; proposes thedirect impacts by the industrial structure, the structure of energy consumption,energy intensity and energy emission intensity on petrochemical industry’scarbon intensity; also proposes the indirect effects by government level, marketlevel, public opinion level and organizational level factors. Basing on the analysis above, we construct the theoretical framework for effect factors oncarbon intensity, which may provide the theoretical support for the comingresearch.
For the study on direct factors in carbon intensity of China's petrochemicalindustry, our paper starts from the theoretical analysis on the direct influencefactors in the carbon intensity, and construct a carbon dioxide emissionscalculation model, the direct influence factors of petrochemical industrydecomposition model and the decoupling of the carbon intensity of thepetrochemical industry state model. We measure the decoupling state of thecarbon intensity of China's petrochemical industry and identify the main factorsof the carbon intensity of China's petrochemical industry during the variousdecoupling stages based on the data from various statistical yearbooks.
For the study on indirect influence factors, considering the indirect impactanalysis of the carbon intensity of China's petrochemical industry as thetheoretical foundation, this paper carries out the in-depth analysis of the impactsof the government policies and government action on the low-carbontechnological innovation of petrochemical industry at the government level; theimpacts of the market access, competitive conditions and stakeholders on thelow-carbon technological innovation of petrochemical industry at the marketlevel; the social impact of abnormal events and media coverage on thelow-carbon technological innovation of petrochemical industry at the publicopinion level; the impacts of organizational level, organizational culture,organizational strategy, organization knowledge of the structure and organizationof the petrochemical industry on low-carbon technological innovation; theimpacts of low-carbon technologies innovation for carbon intensity. And weexplore the relationship between the indirect impacts of the carbon intensity ofthe petrochemical industry factors, and put forward the corresponding theoreticalassumptions and path analysis model. Based on this, we do the questionnairedesign and construct measurement based on an empirical test by partial leastsquares structural equation model using259valid sample data, in order toin-depth analysis of the impacts of influence factors and their interactions on thecarbon intensity of the petrochemical industry.
In the simulation analysis of the dynamic effects of the carbon intensity ofChina's petrochemical industry and the analysis of carbon emission reductionstrategy selection, our paper connects the influence factors of the petrochemicalindustry’s carbon intensity to the dynamic changes of carbon intensity, constructthe system dynamics model of the carbon intensity of petrochemical industry, simulate the fluctuations of carbon intensity under the function of the factors atthe government level, market level, public opinion level and organizational level.And we examine the degree of change of carbon intensity by adjusting thevariables. In the end, we propose the policy strategy accelerated carbon intensityof China's petrochemical industry from the government level, market level, thepublic opinion level and organizational level separately.
目前学者们对石化产业碳强度影响的研究还处于探索阶段，缺乏对石化产业碳强度影响的系统研究，尤其是缺乏实证研究。在总结梳理国内外研究成果的基础上，构建石化产业碳强度影响因素的理论框架，对石化产业碳强度的直接影响、间接影响和动态影响机理进行研究，既考虑各影响因素对石化产业碳强度的单独影响，又考虑影响因素交互作用对石化产业碳强度的动态影响，具体内容如下：
从界定石化产业碳强度相关概念出发，分析石化产业碳强度降低的动机和本质，提出石化产业碳强度受产业结构、能源消费结构、能源强度和能源排放强度的直接影响；受政府层面、市场层面、舆论层面和组织层面要素的间接影响，在此基础上设计石化产业碳强度影响的理论框架，为下文的研究提供理论支持。
在中国石化产业碳强度直接影响分析中，以石化产业碳强度直接影响因素的理论分析为逻辑起点，构建二氧化碳排放量测算模型、石化产业碳强度直接影响因素分解模型和石化产业碳强度的解耦状态模型，利用各类统计年鉴中关于石化产业的相关数据，对中国石化产业碳强度的解耦状态进行测度，并对中国石化产业碳强度各解耦阶段的主要影响因素进行分析。
在中国石化产业碳强度间接影响分析中，以石化产业碳强度间接影响因素分析为理论基础，深入分析政府层面中的政府政策和政府行为对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；市场层面中的市场准入、竞争状况和利益相关者对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；舆论层面中的媒体报道和社会异常事件对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；组织层面中的组织文化、组织战略、组织结构和组织知识对石化产业低碳技术创新的影响；以及低碳技术创新对碳强度的影响，剖析石化产业碳强度的间接影响因素之间的关系，并提出相应理论假设和路径分析模型。在此基础上进行问卷设计和构念测量，基于中国石化企业259份有效样本数据，利用偏最小二乘结构方程模型对所构建的理论模型进行实证检验，深入分析影响因素本身及其相互作用后对石化产业碳强度的影响。
在中国石化产业碳强度动态影响的仿真分析及碳减排策略选择中，以石化产业碳强度直接影响和间接影响的研究为基础，运用系统动力学理论将石化产业碳强度影响因素与碳强度数量的动态变化相联系，建立石化产业碳强度动态影响的系统动力学模型，仿真模拟在政府层面、市场层面、舆论层面和组织层面要素作用下石化产业碳强度的波动变化，并通过调节调控变量，考察石化产业碳强度的数量改变程度。结合仿真分析结果，从政府层面、市场层面、舆论层面和组织层面入手，提出加速中国石化产业碳强度降低的策略。
Greenhouse gas emissions generated by human industrial activities areconsidered to be an important reason for causing global warming. As one of themajor industries of the greenhouse gas emissions, petrochemical industryrequired to assume control of the country's greenhouse gas emission reductiontask. Thus, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology developed the“petrochemical and chemical industry12th Five-Year development plan” inDecember2011, which explicitly requires the petrochemical industry to realize20%reduction in energy consumption per unit of industrial added value ofindustry-wide and the carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by17%untilthe end year of ‘Twelfth Five-Year Plan’. In order to ensure the realization of thegoal, the petrochemical industry has already carried out actions to reduce carbonintensity, however the effect is very limited than expected. How to identify thecarbon intensity’s influence factors of the petrochemical industry and to clarifythe interaction between the various factors, to ensure the petrochemical industrycould carry out the actions of carbon intensity reduce, therefore to enhancelow-carbon competitive advantage, have become the focus of academia andindustry problems.
The studies on the impact of the petrochemical industry’s carbon intensityare still in the first stage. The systematic researches, especially the empiricalresearches are scarce. Based on the summarise of the research results at homeand abroad, our paper builds the theoretical framework of the carbon factors ofpetrochemical industry, studies on the direct impact, indirect impact, anddynamic effect mechanism of the carbon intensity in Chinese petrochemicalindustry, both considering the separate effects of influential factors on the carbonintensity of the petrochemical industry and the dynamic interaction between thefactors. The detailed content as follows:
Our paper starts from the definition of the related concepts of the carbonintensity in the petrochemical industry; then analyzes the motivation and thenature of the petrochemical industry carbon intensity reduction; proposes thedirect impacts by the industrial structure, the structure of energy consumption,energy intensity and energy emission intensity on petrochemical industry’scarbon intensity; also proposes the indirect effects by government level, marketlevel, public opinion level and organizational level factors. Basing on the analysis above, we construct the theoretical framework for effect factors oncarbon intensity, which may provide the theoretical support for the comingresearch.
For the study on direct factors in carbon intensity of China's petrochemicalindustry, our paper starts from the theoretical analysis on the direct influencefactors in the carbon intensity, and construct a carbon dioxide emissionscalculation model, the direct influence factors of petrochemical industrydecomposition model and the decoupling of the carbon intensity of thepetrochemical industry state model. We measure the decoupling state of thecarbon intensity of China's petrochemical industry and identify the main factorsof the carbon intensity of China's petrochemical industry during the variousdecoupling stages based on the data from various statistical yearbooks.
For the study on indirect influence factors, considering the indirect impactanalysis of the carbon intensity of China's petrochemical industry as thetheoretical foundation, this paper carries out the in-depth analysis of the impactsof the government policies and government action on the low-carbontechnological innovation of petrochemical industry at the government level; theimpacts of the market access, competitive conditions and stakeholders on thelow-carbon technological innovation of petrochemical industry at the marketlevel; the social impact of abnormal events and media coverage on thelow-carbon technological innovation of petrochemical industry at the publicopinion level; the impacts of organizational level, organizational culture,organizational strategy, organization knowledge of the structure and organizationof the petrochemical industry on low-carbon technological innovation; theimpacts of low-carbon technologies innovation for carbon intensity. And weexplore the relationship between the indirect impacts of the carbon intensity ofthe petrochemical industry factors, and put forward the corresponding theoreticalassumptions and path analysis model. Based on this, we do the questionnairedesign and construct measurement based on an empirical test by partial leastsquares structural equation model using259valid sample data, in order toin-depth analysis of the impacts of influence factors and their interactions on thecarbon intensity of the petrochemical industry.
In the simulation analysis of the dynamic effects of the carbon intensity ofChina's petrochemical industry and the analysis of carbon emission reductionstrategy selection, our paper connects the influence factors of the petrochemicalindustry’s carbon intensity to the dynamic changes of carbon intensity, constructthe system dynamics model of the carbon intensity of petrochemical industry, simulate the fluctuations of carbon intensity under the function of the factors atthe government level, market level, public opinion level and organizational level.And we examine the degree of change of carbon intensity by adjusting thevariables. In the end, we propose the policy strategy accelerated carbon intensityof China's petrochemical industry from the government level, market level, thepublic opinion level and organizational level separately.
引文
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