住房消费—投资需求形成机理与差异化政策研究
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摘要
住房与家庭生活密切相关，是家庭财产的重要组成部分，一旦住房市场出现了问题，将直接关系到国家经济社会的安全稳定发展。近年来，在国内大部分地区出现了住房市场过热，炒作投资过度，甚至呈现住房市场泡沫化的背景下，国务院出台了以“鼓励住房消费需求、抑制投资投机需求”为核心内容的一系列住房政策，这一系列住房政策为中国学术界提出了新的课题，如何界定住房消费需求、投资投机需求，以及如何做到鼓励住房消费需求的同时，又做到抑制投资投机需求，成为关系该政策成败而亟待解决的理论问题。而这一些列问题解决的关键就在于了解住房消费需求、投资投机需求的形成机理与影响因素分析。
本文在回顾国内外住房需求研究现状的基础上，发现将住房需求进行消费需求与投资需求区分而展开的基础研究十分罕见，多数学者逾越了基础研究而侧重于应用研究，在基础理论问题上根本不涉及或是很少涉及，以至于相关的实证研究不能很好地为解决现实问题提供理论指导。因此，本文以界定住房消费需求、住房投资需求的及其相关概念为着手点，对家庭个体住房选择行为过程中涉及的效用与预期理论问题进行了深入地探讨，提出了期望状态价值决策准则以及投资收益效用与投资成本效用定理。在此基础上，本文将经济预期变量引入到住房消费需求与住房投资需求的数理分析模型中，应用静态比较分析方法确定了外生变量对内生变量的影响方式，为实证研究提供了理论依据。
在住房消费需求与住房投资需求理论分析的支撑下，住房消费需求方程、住房投资需求方程、以及住房占用模式选择方程的自变量可以较为轻易地确定出来。难点在于其中一些自变量数据的收集与计算方法，为此，本文针对家庭个体住房选择过程中经济预期变量的问卷设计与调查方式进行了探索。在充分的自变量数据支持下，应用住房特征价格法、加权最小二乘法、以及概率单位模型，对住房消费需求方程、住房投资需求方程、以及住房使用权选择方程进行了估计。结果显示，理论分析结果在实证分析中得到了验证，并进一步地得到了自变量对因变量影响的弹性与系数。
“鼓励住房消费需求、抑制投资投机需求”政策是本文研究的初衷也是研究的归宿。目前，我国大多数地方政府较为普遍盲目地采取“一刀切”式的住房需求调控政策，没有充分考虑不同城市住房消费需求与住房投资需求的现状及发展趋势。结合前文所做的理论研究与实证分析结果，论文提出住房消费-投资需求差异化的表现与判断方法，并应用“平均人”理论、随机优势理论将住房消费需求、住房投资需求的微观研究与宏观政策研究结合起来，解决了住房消费需求与投资需求在宏观经济中不可观测性、不可区分性的难题。
论文最后在分析住房需求政策调控系统以及住房消费需求、住房投资需求差异化特征的基础上，提出了相应的政策调控目标与政策工具，并对样本抽查所在的城市，即北京市、上海市、哈尔滨市、重庆市、西安市、温州市，进行了住房消费需求、住房投资需求的差异化调控政策应用研究，提出了一些政策与建议。
Housing is closely related to family life and an important part of the familyproperty. Once there are some problems in the housing market, the national economicstability and social security will be harmed seriosly. In recent years, most cities of thecountry appeared real estate industry overheated, excessive housing investment andspeculation, and even real estate bubble. Under this background, our country has issueda series of housing policy to encourage housing consumption demand and curbspeculative investment demand as the core content which put foaword a new topic to thedomestic academia. How to define the housing consumption demand, speculativeinvestment demand, and how to encourage the housing consunption demand while atthe same time curb the housing investment even speculative demand is the key to thepolicy and theoretical and eager to be solved. Then how to to understand the housingconsumption-investment demand, the formation mechanism and influence factors is thekey to solve the series of problem.
The paper found there is very rare to study about the housing demand of consumerdemand and investment demand separately on the reviewing of the domestic and foreigndemand housing basis research. Most scholars focus on applied research does notinvolve or rarely involve the basic theory, so that empirical research can not providetheoretical guidance for solving practical problems. Therefore, this article taking thedefinition of housing consumption-investment demand and their related concepts as thestarting point, discussed the utility and prospect theory problem involved in the processof individual family housing choice behavior. And the paper also difined the certaintyand uncertainty about the expectation and put forward two important theorems in thetheoretical analysis which include the investment benefit and cost utility. On this basis,this paper introduced the economy expectation varibles to the housing consumption andinvestment demand model, and determined the impact of the endogenous variables inthe exogenous variables by applying the comparative static analysis. This would bepossible to provide a theoretical basis for the empirical research.
On the basis of the housing consumption-investment demand theoretical analysis,the independent variables of housing consumption demand function, housinginvestment demand function, as well as housing sub-tenure choice function can be moreeasily determined out. The difficulty lays in the independent variable data collection andcalculation methods, for which the design of the questionnaire survey method for thevariables of the economy expectation is explored in the housing selection process ofindividual family. In the support of full variable data, the paper estimated the functionsof housing consumption and housing investment as well as housing sub-tenure choice inthe application of housing hedonic method, weighted least squares, and probit model. The results show that the theoretical result in the empirical analysis in the paper can beverified, and get further independent variable on the dependent variable the effects ofelasticity and coefficient.
The policy of "encouraging housing consumption demand and curbing speculativehousing investment demand" is not only the original intention of this paper but also isthe destination. At present, China's local governments are more commonly blindlytaking the "one size fits all" type of housing demand control policies, without fullyconsidering the situation and development trend of the different cities about the housingconsumption demand and housing investment demand. Combinating the theoreticalresearch and empirical analysis which already have been done in this paper, thedifferentiated status and developemt trendence of housing consumption-investmentdemand, the differentiated population charicteristics of families, and the differentiatedgradient of investment are summed up. Applying the "average man" theory andstochastic dominance theory, the paper combinated the microcosmic research results ofhousing consumption-investment demand with the macroscopic policy regulation, andsolved the problem of unobservable and undistinguishable of housing consumption andinvestment demand.
Finally, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of differentiated housingconsumption and investment demand and the corresponding policy control sysytem, thepaper put forward the corresponding policy target and policy tools and studied on thedifferrntiated policied for the demand of housing consumption and investment, then putforward some policies and suggestions about the six sample survey cities includingPeiking, Shanghai, Harbin, Chongqing, Xian, and Wenzhou.
本文在回顾国内外住房需求研究现状的基础上，发现将住房需求进行消费需求与投资需求区分而展开的基础研究十分罕见，多数学者逾越了基础研究而侧重于应用研究，在基础理论问题上根本不涉及或是很少涉及，以至于相关的实证研究不能很好地为解决现实问题提供理论指导。因此，本文以界定住房消费需求、住房投资需求的及其相关概念为着手点，对家庭个体住房选择行为过程中涉及的效用与预期理论问题进行了深入地探讨，提出了期望状态价值决策准则以及投资收益效用与投资成本效用定理。在此基础上，本文将经济预期变量引入到住房消费需求与住房投资需求的数理分析模型中，应用静态比较分析方法确定了外生变量对内生变量的影响方式，为实证研究提供了理论依据。
在住房消费需求与住房投资需求理论分析的支撑下，住房消费需求方程、住房投资需求方程、以及住房占用模式选择方程的自变量可以较为轻易地确定出来。难点在于其中一些自变量数据的收集与计算方法，为此，本文针对家庭个体住房选择过程中经济预期变量的问卷设计与调查方式进行了探索。在充分的自变量数据支持下，应用住房特征价格法、加权最小二乘法、以及概率单位模型，对住房消费需求方程、住房投资需求方程、以及住房使用权选择方程进行了估计。结果显示，理论分析结果在实证分析中得到了验证，并进一步地得到了自变量对因变量影响的弹性与系数。
“鼓励住房消费需求、抑制投资投机需求”政策是本文研究的初衷也是研究的归宿。目前，我国大多数地方政府较为普遍盲目地采取“一刀切”式的住房需求调控政策，没有充分考虑不同城市住房消费需求与住房投资需求的现状及发展趋势。结合前文所做的理论研究与实证分析结果，论文提出住房消费-投资需求差异化的表现与判断方法，并应用“平均人”理论、随机优势理论将住房消费需求、住房投资需求的微观研究与宏观政策研究结合起来，解决了住房消费需求与投资需求在宏观经济中不可观测性、不可区分性的难题。
论文最后在分析住房需求政策调控系统以及住房消费需求、住房投资需求差异化特征的基础上，提出了相应的政策调控目标与政策工具，并对样本抽查所在的城市，即北京市、上海市、哈尔滨市、重庆市、西安市、温州市，进行了住房消费需求、住房投资需求的差异化调控政策应用研究，提出了一些政策与建议。
Housing is closely related to family life and an important part of the familyproperty. Once there are some problems in the housing market, the national economicstability and social security will be harmed seriosly. In recent years, most cities of thecountry appeared real estate industry overheated, excessive housing investment andspeculation, and even real estate bubble. Under this background, our country has issueda series of housing policy to encourage housing consumption demand and curbspeculative investment demand as the core content which put foaword a new topic to thedomestic academia. How to define the housing consumption demand, speculativeinvestment demand, and how to encourage the housing consunption demand while atthe same time curb the housing investment even speculative demand is the key to thepolicy and theoretical and eager to be solved. Then how to to understand the housingconsumption-investment demand, the formation mechanism and influence factors is thekey to solve the series of problem.
The paper found there is very rare to study about the housing demand of consumerdemand and investment demand separately on the reviewing of the domestic and foreigndemand housing basis research. Most scholars focus on applied research does notinvolve or rarely involve the basic theory, so that empirical research can not providetheoretical guidance for solving practical problems. Therefore, this article taking thedefinition of housing consumption-investment demand and their related concepts as thestarting point, discussed the utility and prospect theory problem involved in the processof individual family housing choice behavior. And the paper also difined the certaintyand uncertainty about the expectation and put forward two important theorems in thetheoretical analysis which include the investment benefit and cost utility. On this basis,this paper introduced the economy expectation varibles to the housing consumption andinvestment demand model, and determined the impact of the endogenous variables inthe exogenous variables by applying the comparative static analysis. This would bepossible to provide a theoretical basis for the empirical research.
On the basis of the housing consumption-investment demand theoretical analysis,the independent variables of housing consumption demand function, housinginvestment demand function, as well as housing sub-tenure choice function can be moreeasily determined out. The difficulty lays in the independent variable data collection andcalculation methods, for which the design of the questionnaire survey method for thevariables of the economy expectation is explored in the housing selection process ofindividual family. In the support of full variable data, the paper estimated the functionsof housing consumption and housing investment as well as housing sub-tenure choice inthe application of housing hedonic method, weighted least squares, and probit model. The results show that the theoretical result in the empirical analysis in the paper can beverified, and get further independent variable on the dependent variable the effects ofelasticity and coefficient.
The policy of "encouraging housing consumption demand and curbing speculativehousing investment demand" is not only the original intention of this paper but also isthe destination. At present, China's local governments are more commonly blindlytaking the "one size fits all" type of housing demand control policies, without fullyconsidering the situation and development trend of the different cities about the housingconsumption demand and housing investment demand. Combinating the theoreticalresearch and empirical analysis which already have been done in this paper, thedifferentiated status and developemt trendence of housing consumption-investmentdemand, the differentiated population charicteristics of families, and the differentiatedgradient of investment are summed up. Applying the "average man" theory andstochastic dominance theory, the paper combinated the microcosmic research results ofhousing consumption-investment demand with the macroscopic policy regulation, andsolved the problem of unobservable and undistinguishable of housing consumption andinvestment demand.
Finally, on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of differentiated housingconsumption and investment demand and the corresponding policy control sysytem, thepaper put forward the corresponding policy target and policy tools and studied on thedifferrntiated policied for the demand of housing consumption and investment, then putforward some policies and suggestions about the six sample survey cities includingPeiking, Shanghai, Harbin, Chongqing, Xian, and Wenzhou.
引文
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